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Clinton Targets Red States; The Fight for Mosul; Path to Electoral Votes. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired October 18, 2016 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:30:00] ALISON KOSIK, CNN MONEY BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Expect to see stocks rebound off of yesterday's losses. And at the same time, investors have their eye on the presidential election. Wall Street is now putting its bets on a win for Hillary Clinton. How can we tell? It's not so much what investors are saying, it's what they're doing. The market moves are showing us, like what the Mexican peso is doing and what gas, gold and stocks are doing as well.

You look at the price of gold, it's falling, and that means investors aren't looking for a safe haven because the more predictable Clinton is expected to win. The peso is jumping because the thought is, without Trump in office, the U.S./Mexico relationship won't be hurt. And gas prices aren't spiking, they're holding steady, which is a plus for investors and consumers.

Even investor polling data points to Clinton. Sixty percent of investors now say Clinton is the best candidate for the stock market, versus 40 percent who say Trump is. Now, there is one indicator pointed at Trump, how the S&P 500 has been doing since August. It's down 2 percent, which actually works in Trump's favor. But, Carol, even the analyst who came up with that indicator say that should be viewed as a guide, never gospel.

Carol.

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: We'll do. Alison Kosik live from the New York Stock Exchange.

Download the CNN Money Steam app. It's business news personalized. The only place you can follow the companies, business leaders and topics that matter most to you. Download it now on your iPhone or android device.

And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me.

As Hillary Clinton hunkers down for final debate preps, her camp is flexing is muscle in historically solid red states. Her surrogates barnstorming Arizona. Bernie Sanders is there today. Chelsea will be there tomorrow. Obama -- Michelle Obama will travel to Arizona on Thursday. Add that to the $2 million spent on ads.

In Texas, ads are about to run highlighting an endorsement from "The Dallas Morning News." Another million dollars spent in Indiana and in Missouri. In the meantime, Donald Trump is in the swing state of Colorado, while Mike Pence tours North Carolina.

So let's talk about that now with Dan Nowicki, he's the national political reporter for the "Arizona Republic," and Chrissie Thompson, she's the Columbus bureau chief for "The Cincinnati Enquirer."

Welcome to both of you.

DAN NOWICKI, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, "ARIZONA REPUBLIC": Hi, Carol.

CHRISSIE THOMPSON, COLUMBUS BUREAU CHIEF, "CINCINNATI ENQUIRER": Thank you.

COSTELLO: Hi. Nice to have you here.

So, Dan, can Hillary Clinton really win Arizona?

NOWICKI: Well, this year it's looking like she might be able to. Her husband, Bill Clinton, is the last Democrat to carry Arizona. He did that in 1996 when he was running for re-election. And before that you have to go way back to 1948 when Harry Truman won Arizona. Besides those, they've always been won by Republicans in presidential elections. But, this year, with Donald Trump, even though he's made six appearances in the state himself, there's -- it looks like it's a real good chance for the Democrats to turn Arizona blue, at least on the presidential race.

COSTELLO: It's an exciting race to cover for you this year.

So, Chrissie, most analysts say Trump should win the state of Ohio, but to do that he has to -- he has to win Hamilton County, Cincinnati, where you're from. He has to win that big because Hamilton County went for Obama in '08 and in 2012. Is it possible?

THOMPSON: Is it possible for him to win Hamilton County? I think it is possible. You know, what we really need to see is Hamilton County is where Cincinnati is, but it also includes a lot of wealthy suburbs. And what we really need to see is what those educated middle class voters, educated women, who they decide to vote for and if the sex- related accusations and the tapes from -- that were released two weeks ago, how those affect some of those voters in those suburbs on the fringe of Hamilton County.

COSTELLO: Interesting. So, Dan, Hispanics in Arizona, everybody thought with the comments that Donald Trump has made about, you know, Hispanics coming over the border, Mexicans coming over the border, that that would really energize Hispanics in states like Arizona to head to the polls and vote for Clinton. Do you see that happening?

NOWICKI: Well, I think there has been some growth in the Hispanic voter registration. You know, whether they're all going to turn out this year remains to be seen, but I don't think it's reached kind of historic levels that some people were anticipating given all of Trump's rhetoric about immigration and building the wall and his deportation force, et cetera. You know, in 2010, Arizona had a pretty controversial state

immigration law called SB 1070. And there's a lot of talk, too, that that would energize Hispanic voters. And that didn't really happen either. So it kind of makes you wonder what would really energize Latinos if Trump doesn't do it.

COSTELLO: So what is energizing voters in Arizona to lean more towards Clinton then?

NOWICKI: Well, I think it's kind of maybe, to some degree, leaning against Trump. Trump has offended a lot of key constituencies in Arizona. Latino voters, as you mentioned, but also there's a lot of Mormon voters. Utah gets a lot of attention for the Mormons, but there's also a sizeable population of Mormons in Arizona who are not happy with his kind of playboy lifestyle. You know, obviously, they respect Mitt Romney's opinion of Trump. Jeff Flake, who is a U.S. senator here, who has sparred with Trump, also is Mormon. And so I think that's a pretty big bloc that usually reliably goes with the Republicans who he's turned off.

[09:35:25] He's also, you know, picked fights with John McCain, picked fights with Jeff Flake. They all have networks of Republicans who, under normal circumstances, would be inclined to support whoever the GOP presidential nominee is, but they're kind of turned off to Trump.

COSTELLO: Interesting. So in Ohio, Trump is doing better there, Chrissie, than in other swing states. Why is that?

THOMPSON: Yes. Usually the reason that we point to has to do with demographics. The state has a higher percentage of its population that is white working class people. That is, people who lack a college degree. One of the highest percentages among swing states. And those are folks who have tended to support Trump's anti-trade rhetoric, especially in Ohio. That's the number one issue is hear from those folks when I'm talking with them here in the state.

Another reason is we have a lower than average percentage of Latinos in our state and that, if it continues to stay kind of as low as it is, will make us less and less a mirror of the rest of the country as years go forward. So while we may -- we may end up voting with the presidential winner this year, in -- in the next four or eight years, we could see Ohio becoming less and less like the rest of the country.

COSTELLO: Oh, I hope not. Being from Ohio, I like that Ohio's place in history like that, but we'll see.

THOMPSON: We love being the bell weather.

COSTELLO: Dan -- I know we do. Dan Nowicki, Chrissie Thompson, thanks for joining me this morning.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, forces are driving ISIS out of its last stronghold in Iraq, but the terror group is fighting back with suicide bombers and ambushes.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [09:41:14] COSTELLO: The Pentagon says the battle to drive ISIS out of its last stronghold in Iraq is going faster than expected. Iraqi and coalition forces are advancing on the oil rich city of Mosul. In just the first 24 hours, they've seized nine villages from ISIS. They've retaken 75 square miles of territory. But even though the offensive is moving ahead of schedule, They've also faced gunfire, shelling, suicide bombers. Nick Paton Walsh is with the Peshmerga fighters on the road to Mosul.

Hi, Nick.

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Carol, at this stage, the advance seems to be continuing. We've just heard the crackle of gunfire down the road behind me, obscured by the hill. And we've seen plumes of smoke all around that area before.

Now, the Iraqi army said they've moved into some villages, one particularly called Catakosh (ph), that seems to be a consistent advance towards the city of Mosul. But it's not easy by any stretch of the imagination. Yesterday we ourselves stood there as Peshmerga chased down an ISIS suicide bomber who blew himself up.

Now, adding to the bid to try and keep civilians away from harm, the Iraqi military announced that they've dropped 17 million leaflets recently, a staggeringly large number. And, of course, those leaflets suggest people should assist the Iraqi military coming into that city and offer safe passage as well. It's hard to see how safe passage really can be secured, 1.2 million people caught potentially in the crossfire, potentially as human shields held by ISIS in there. Some of them, too, feel perhaps a sense of fear or about the Iraqi military coming in. Many of the population of Mosul are Sunni. From the Sunni ethnic sector in Iraq. A lot of that military have the Shia Iranian backed militia, called the paramilitary forces, people (ph) motivation (ph) units behind them. They've insisted they want to be part of this fight.

It's very complex along sectarian and ethic lines here, but it's certainly underway. And the force directed eastwards towards that main urban sprawl of Mosul, it's moving. It's seeing ISIS resistance. And we don't know the timetable the Pentagon really are talking about, but certainly there's progress here. It's just clear that ISIS aren't giving up these open plains around the city of Mosul as quickly as optimists hoped they might.

Carol.

COSTELLO: All right, Nick Paton Walsh reporting live near Mosul in Iraq this morning.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, 21 days, 270 electoral votes. We take a look at this road to victory and how each side can seal the deal.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:47:57] COSTELLO: Not everyone has to wait three weeks to vote on Election Day. Take a look at this line in the state of Georgia. This is the first day of early voting in that state. Wow! You can see more than 1,000 people stood in line to cast their vote in Gwinnett County. Many of them getting there two hours before the doors even opened. Ah, the democratic process at work. It's a beautiful thing.

Joining us now from Las Vegas, the site of tomorrow's big presidential debate, Mark Preston, CNN Politics executive editor.

Hi, Mark.

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Hey, Carol, good morning. How are you?

COSTELLO: Do you see those lines in Georgia?

PRESTON: So I'll tell you -- well, I'm going to tell you what, I mean it is amazing now that we are seeing this process now finally coming to an end. We're seeing people, not only in Georgia, but in several other states right now who are getting out there in early voting. This is very key now to both political parties because the more people you can get to the vote early, can get them out now, they can then focus on those voters that are a little bit harder, a little bit harder to persuade to get to the polls.

Now the question is, who is this really going to benefit, Carol, and we're not quite sure yet. We haven't seen the early voting totals. But if you are to believe the ground operation that Hillary Clinton has put in place over the past couple of years, you might have to think that this might actually benefit her, Carol.

COSTELLO: Traditionally, does early voting benefit Democrats?

PRESTON: Well, they certainly have a better ground operation than we've seen from Republicans, certainly in most recent time. Barack Obama was able to build an operation in 2008 and in 2012 that certainly surpassed John McCain and Mitt Romney's. But, you know, we'll see what happens this time.

The problem for Donald Trump right now, though, Carol, is that he really has no ground operation in many of these states. He doesn't have the money. He didn't put in the time to do so. And we haven't seen that kind of activity that we have seen on the Democratic side.

But look at a state like Georgia. A state that should be ruby red, that he shouldn't have to worry about, but it really is a state now that Democrats are try to make a play, as we're seeing in Arizona and other states as well.

COSTELLO: OK. So take us through the map. What states are still in play?

[09:50:01] PRESTON: All right, well, let's just take it -- if we throw the map up there right now, let's just talk about the baseline right now. If the election were held today, Hillary Clinton, accord to CNN estimates, would win. She'd get 272 electoral votes, Donald Trump would get 196. For Donald Trump to get to the 270 threshold, follow this path, he needs to win Florida, he needs to win Ohio, and he needs to win North Carolina.

Now, he's behind in the polls in North Carolina barely, but he's behind in the polls significantly in Florida. He is winning in Ohio. But let's assume that he were to win those three states. He then needs to go on and either win the state of Virginia, the state of Michigan, or the state of Pennsylvania. And he's trailing in all three of those states right now as well. Or, Carol, another option, another pathway possibly is that he would have to win the state of Nevada, where I stand right now, and also win either Colorado or win Wisconsin. Now, Colorado and Wisconsin are two states right now that Hillary Clinton is up as well, so it's a very narrow path right now for Donald Trump, which even makes this debate tomorrow night that much more important.

COSTELLO: So fascinating. OK, so some of the national polls, Mark, show the race tighter than it seems when you look at the electoral map. Why is that?

PRESTON: Well, because, I mean, if you look at -- if you look across the broad swath, Donald Trump is going to do well in primarily southern states, and you're going to see Hillary Clinton do better on the coasts. And when you put all those numbers together and mix them together, you're going to see a national poll that doesn't always match what we're seeing in the states that are actually going to decide the election.

Now, for example, let's look at a state like Arizona right now. Chelsea Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Michelle Obama are all going to go out to Arizona. This is a state right now that should be no question in Donald Trump's column, but he's going to have to battle there as well. So, you know, the polls that we're watching right now, while we -- national polls are interesting to follow. It's really the state polls that we should be focusing on.

COSTELLO: Yes, exactly, because I think some people don't quite understand the electoral process, right? So if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Ohio, he gets 18 electoral votes. That's winner take all, right, just like in the primary.

PRESTON: Right. Correct. Correct. But, you know, having said that, if -- but he needs to get to 270 electoral votes in total. And if you add up all the states where Hillary Clinton's ahead right now, where Donald Trump is, he doesn't get there and yet she does. So the national polls, even though they look like they're tighter in some cases, they're not necessarily reflective of where the race is right now.

COSTELLO: Right, because in California, they have a lot more electoral votes because it's a bigger, more populous state, correct?

PRESTON: Correct. Correct. States like California and New York are Democratic strongholds and those are in her column. The state of Texas right now is in Trump's column. However, Hillary Clinton's a lot closer than she should be in that state, a state that is, you know, traditionally a Republican state.

COSTELLO: All right, Mark Preston, thank you so much for making it easy to understand. We do appreciate it.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:57:42] COSTELLO: Checking some top stories for you at 57 minutes past.

Olympic sprinter Tyson Gay is pleading for an end to gun violence after his 15-year-old daughter was shot to death. He spoke at a vigil in Lexington, Kentucky.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TYSON GAY, OLYMPIC SPRINTER: Well, I'm so numb right now from all the crying and still not even understanding this senseless act. It's almost even hard to (INAUDIBLE). It doesn't stop with fear (ph). It doesn't stop with the balloons (ph) or (INAUDIBLE) support (ph), but I need you guys to keep it going. I don't want to read in the paper next week, another senseless killing. It has to stop.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Three men have been charged in Trinity Gay's death. The high school track star was killed by a stray bullet during a shootout on Sunday.

The former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is admitting he lie to the FBI about whether he leaked top secret information to the media about Iran's nuclear program. Retired Four Star General James Cartwright pleaded guilty in federal court. Under the plea deal, he could face six months in prison. His sentencing is set for January 17th.

The Austrian government is announcing plans to demolish the house where Adolf Hitler was born in 1889. They want to prevent the building, which is now empty, from becoming a shrine for neo-Nazis. The Austrian parliament must still approve the plan. That is expected to happen soon.

Come January, President Obama will be out of the White House. And now thanks to comedian Stephen Colbert, Mr. Obama will be ready for his first job interview in more than eight years.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STEPHEN COLBERT, "THE LATE SHOW WITH STEPHEN COLBERT": Fifty-five. A tough time to start over for a man. OK. I have a copy of a resume here. Why don't you hand it to me as if you were applying for a job. Go ahead and do it.

That's good. You're a natural.

I don't see any promotions for the last eight years. That's not always good. Can you explain that?

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Honestly, there wasn't a lot of room for advancement in my last job. The only one with a more powerful position was my wife.

COLBERT: OK. Ah, good.

OBAMA: I'm leaving because it's required by the 22nd Amendment of the United States Constitution.

COLBERT: OK. A little tip, when you say staying in your job would be unconstitutional, what employers here is that you stole office supplies.

It doesn't say here, where were you born?

Would you care for an extra fiber nutrient bar, which has traveled to more than 100 countries, or this shriveled tangerine, covered in golden retriever hair, filled with bile, but I wouldn't leave it alone with the woman I love?

[10:00:12] OBAMA: Well, I think I'll go with the fiber nutrient bar.