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Battle for Mosul; AT&T, TimeWarner Media Mega-Merger; Demolition of Calais Migrant Camp; Race for the White House; Libyan Forces Fighting ISIS; The Story behind a Shot. Aired 11a-Noon ET

Aired October 23, 2016 - 11:00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[11:00:00]

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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As Kurdish and Iraqi forces edge ever closer to Mosul, ISIS has been leaving behind the weapons

to kill and maim even once they've gone.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST (voice-over): And now with just kilometers to the city limits, coalition troops are expected to face the fiercest fighting

yet. We're live near Mosul this hour.

Also ahead, mega merger: AT&T set to buy TimeWarner for $85 billion. All the details of that deal and its significance coming up.

Plus 16 days and counting. We are approaching the finishing line in the race for the White House. An update on the U.S. presidential election is

for you this hour here on CNN.

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ANDERSON: A very warm welcome. Just after 7 o'clock in the evening here in the UAE. Hello and welcome, you're watching CONNECT THE WORLD. I'm

Becky Anderson.

We begin in Northern Iraq and the massive military campaign to drive ISIS from the city of Mosul. Now Peshmerga forces have advanced to just eight

kilometers east of the city. That is where they have surrounded the town of Bashiqa (ph). ISIS positions there are being pounded with artillery,

mortars and airstrikes, but there have been gruesome setbacks after Iraqi forces left another town south of Mosul. ISIS militants reportedly emerged

from hiding and killed 40 villagers, who had been celebrating their liberation.

My colleague, Michael Holmes, on the front line with Peshmerga forces near Mosul.

And, Michael, a lot of positive noises about successes on the ground in this push towards Mosul but a weekend of setbacks in this offensive to

defeat ISIS in Iraq.

What's the latest as far as you understand it?

HOLMES: Yes, there's been some major advances. You said the push towards Mosul progressing on multiple fronts, both Iraqi and Kurdish forces making

some impressive gains. But they have been meeting some fierce resistance at times as well. We've heard of at least eight car bombs being destroyed

today as they were being driven towards Iraqi and Kurdish forces, three, as you mentioned, the town of Bashiqa (ph), which is not far from where we are

now.

The fighting, as I said, has been heavy at time times but the progress good. Eight kilometers from the outskirts of Mosul is a pretty impressive

feat so far. You also make the point, which is a good one, which is not all those villages and towns are being cleared properly and ISIS fighters

are popping up, sometimes to create chaos.

Bashiqa (ph), this is just northeast of Mosul. And what happened here about 6:30 in the morning, Peshmerga forces came in and they started to

surround not just the town itself but villages as well. We're talking about 100 square kilometers.

They linked up about mid-afternoon to great celebration and they are staying put at the moment before they decide when to move into Bashiqa (ph)

itself. It's an important gain as they try to strangle Mosul, surrounded it and eventually, of course, move in -- Becky.

ANDERSON: Michael, I know that you've been out with those fighting on the ground in this offensive and you got a sense of just what they face.

Explain.

HOLMES: Yes. What we did -- what's interesting here is -- and you mentioned that case, where the Iraqi army went through, the townspeople

came out and cheered but ISIS was still inside. And they ended up killing some of those celebrating, dozens of them.

What happens is the towns are not always properly cleared and what -- when ISIS is either killed or flees a town, they usually, almost always, leave

behind a deadly legacy for those who come behind. Have a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (Speaking foreign language)

HOLMES (voice-over): Peshmerga Captain Chilhan Suddek (ph) comes face-to- face with death every day. Here, showing us the fruits of his labor. He says he has removed hundreds, perhaps thousands of IEDs like these.

"I do it for humanity," he tells us.

"The people who plant these things are dangerous for my people, for the world. So it's my decision to help save a life."

As Kurdish and Iraqi forces edge ever closer to Mosul, ISIS has been leaving behind the weapons to kill and maim even once they've gone.

[11:05:00]

HOLMES (voice-over): Brigadier General Bajat Masouri (ph) heads the elite Ziravani (ph) special forces. He says he loses more fighters to IEDs than

on the battlefield -- 30 percent of those casualties: men working to diffuse and remove the explosives.

"We liberate a village and they are everywhere," he says.

"People come back to their homes and open something up and it blows up."

The demining teams have rudimentary equipment, a metal detector if they're lucky. The operator of this one lost his fingers to a booby trap. Usually

the tools are wire cutters and their bare hands, their faces inches from the explosives, not even body armor, let alone bomb disposal suits.

"We need training but it is not enough," he tells us.

"We need more equipment, new equipment, to find the IEDs and destroy them."

Captain Suddek (ph) has lost many friends who do the same job as he. He shows us a photo of one who died a few days ago, trying to diffuse one of a

wide variety of devices.

HOLMES: This is just an example of one of the devices, if you like. This is C-4, high explosive, and this is packed with ball bearings. Now these

men killed the man who was carrying this, the ISIS fighter, before he was able to detonate it.

You can just imagine the explosion and the damage that would have been done if it had gone off.

HOLMES (voice-over): Captain Suddek (ph) diffused that bomb himself, as well as countless booby traps. Here, a pressure device that's set off by a

vehicle driving over it. It's the danger from booby traps that means that civilians can't go home to their villages yet, even now that ISIS is gone.

All they can do is collect a few things and leave again.

One is Mitwala Mihadi (ph), who tells me, "We can't live there; no water, no electricity, damage everywhere and explosives as well."

So Captain Suddek (ph) and his men will continue their mission to make those villages safe for people like Mitwala (ph) to return to.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: And of course, Becky, I'll give you one example, we were talking to one of the Peshmerga commanders, who does that sort of clearance. And

he said that his men have been trying to clear one village for the last three months and they're still not done.

Nobody knows how many of these booby traps and IEDs are along the roads and in the villages. But you can be certain that the task of getting rid of

those rigged explosives is going to take longer, much longer, than the battle for Mosul itself -- Becky.

ANDERSON: Yes, Michael, with the -- with the challenges ahead, Mike, thanks for that.

The booby traps themselves aren't just deadly directly; they are also keeping people from going home, making the desperate need for humanitarian

help even more urgent, of course. In about 10 minutes, I'll bring in UNICEF's regional director for the Middle East to ask if they are doing

enough to help.

Two U.S. media giants are planning to join forces in what is a massive merger. Home communications company AT&T has reached a deal to buy

TimeWarner, which is the parent company of CNN. Government regulators still have to sign off on what is this $85 billion merger. If approved,

AT&T would also control entertainment leaders like HBO and Warner Brothers Pictures.

CNNMoney's senior media correspondent, Brian Stelter, has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRIAN STELTER, CNNMONEY SENIOR MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: Hey, there, yes, this is shaping up to be one of the biggest media deals in history, also the

biggest merger of any kind in the United States so far this year.

AT&T, as it stands today, is a wireless company. It's one of the biggest wireless companies in the United States, providing phone and Internet

service to tens of millions of homes and it's also a satellite TV distributor. It has the DirecTV satellite network.

But what AT&T does not have today is content, programming, entertainment and that's what it's trying to gain through TimeWarner. Now you think

about what TimeWarner has, it has CNN, this channel, and it also has a number of other valuable entertainment assets, like HBO, the Warner

Brothers Movie Studio, and cable channels, like TNT and TBS and the Cartoon Network.

AT&T is buying all those up at a cost of $85 billion. That's almost three times as large as the Comcast-NBC merger about five years ago. Now in that

case, government regulators spent more than a year reviewing the deal because Comcast is a big cable provider, reaching tens of millions of

homes, and at NBC, unlike TimeWarner, owned really valuable cable channels. But ultimately that deal was approved with conditions by regulators in

Washington.

The experts I've spoken with expect a similar outcome here. But this deal will take over a year to be reviewed in Washington and will then eventually

be approved with conditions.

In the meantime, TimeWarner CEO Jeff Baucus (ph) --

[11:10:00]

STELTER: -- will remain in charge of TimeWarner. I spoke with him briefly right after the announcement and he says he believes this is pro-consumer,

very positive for customers. Yet it's about making sure they can receive content, news and entertainment in a variety of new ways.

The reality that's how the media world is changing, whether or not this deal happens. You can see it every day in the way you and I interact with

media. You might be watching this newscast on a cell phone or you might be texting or e-mailing on your phone while it's happening. The future of

media is mobile-centric and that's what this deal recognizes and represents.

AT&T believes it's not just enough to own the cellular data networks; it's important to own the programming as well. So by seeking to buy TimeWarner,

it's seeking more influence, more power over the future of media -- back to you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANDERSON: Brian Stelter reporting for you there. Well, TimeWarner hoping the deal is not a repeat of its failed AOL merger more than 15 years ago.

That is considered one of the worst mergers of all time.

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ANDERSON: Right. To some of our hottest stories on the radar today.

And U.S. presidential candidates are in high gear in the final stretch of their campaigns. Hillary Clinton set to speak is in the swing state of

North Carolina, while her running mate, Donald Trump, battles it out in Florida.

In Haiti, SWAT teams are on the hunt for almost 200 inmates who broke out of a prison outside of Port-au-Prince. Police say the prisoners escaped

after starting an armed riot, killing one guard. A dozen of the escapees have now been captured.

A former Guantanamo Bay prisoner, who has been on a hunger strike for 68 days, is leaving Uruguay. The prisoner, Jihad Diab (ph), demanded

relocation to be closer to his wife and children. A statement on his Facebook support page says he has received an offer to go to another

country but it is unclear which one it is.

This hour, tension rising in the Calais migrant camp, known as the Jungle. Thousands of people are about to be forced out and the camp destroyed

starting on Monday. Those who live there have two options: seek asylum or go back to their home country.

With more, our Paris correspondent, Melissa Bell, joining me now from Calais.

What's the mood like there, Melissa?

MELISSA BELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: There is palpable tension this evening, Becky, down there in the dirt tracks that are the equivalent of the streets

in the Jungle. There's been a great deal of confusion amongst the 10,000 or so migrants that call this place home.

Over the course of the last few days, they've seen growing numbers of riot police encircling the camp, growing numbers of journalists as well. And

within the last couple of hours, the French authorities have begun giving out this flyer. It explains in several different languages exactly what's

going to happen from tomorrow morning.

And yet, despite those different languages, Becky, the words are not proving terribly reassuring to those who now call this place home. It is

four square kilometers of camp, that is in which currently 10,000 migrants are living. There are restaurants down there; there are shops, there are

cafes, some sort of life has organized itself really out of nothing.

And some of the migrants here have lived here, Becky, not for months but for years. They don't want to go all the more so because this camp really

represents much more than a home to them; it represents hope, the only hope that they have, the one thing they still have with them, and that is the

hope of getting to the U.K.

If the French authorities have their way, Becky, within the next few days, this camp will no longer exist and that hope will have gone.

ANDERSON: So you say it's not going to exist -- or that is the warning -- will not exist in the next coming days.

What happens in the hours to come then?

When are they going to start this process?

BELL: The plan is, Becky, that, from tomorrow morning, 3,000 migrants today are going to be bused out of here. First, they'll be taken to a

hangar that is just on the outskirts of the Jungle and there they will be given a very simple choice: either you pick a French region and you go

there, where you'll get shelter, help, with your asylum application or you decide to go back to where you came from.

Now when you consider the nationalities of the migrants who are in this camp, Becky, and they come from Eritrea, they come from Sudan, they come

from Afghanistan, when you consider also all that they have gone through to get here -- and many of them have spent months, if not years, on the road

in the worst conditions -- the idea that they might be willing to get put on a plane back home is incredibly unlikely.

The question is, how many of them will accept the idea of being relocated to other parts of France when the one thing that unites them all here is

that desperate desire to get to the United Kingdom?

ANDERSON: Melissa Bell is reporting from Calais for you.

Thank you, Melissa.

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ANDERSON (voice-over): Still to come tonight, fleeing Mosul --

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ANDERSON (voice-over): -- to where the U.N.'s own figures seem to show it won't be able to help very many refugees fleeing that city. I'm going to

speak to UNICEF's head in the Middle East about that, up next.

Plus:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): When we left, we lost our homes, our memories, everything was gone. I don't think we'll ever go back. It's

too hard.

ANDERSON (voice-over): Even with ISIS being kicked out of their town, some Iraqi Christians say they can never go back home. We'll hear more from

them after this.

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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON (voice-over): The sound of hope, church bells ringing out over the Christian town near Mosul, for the first time since ISIS ensnared it

more than two years ago, still the noise of fighting echoing the loudest around Mosul.

Gunfire and artillery shake the air, as Iraqi forces close in on the town. Many families trying to get out of the way, grabbing whatever they can

carry and crowding into whatever will take them, the black smoke smothering the horizon, a reminder of what they are running from.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: You're watching CNN's CONNECT THE WORLD with me, Becky Anderson, live from the heart of the Middle East in Abu Dhabi. Welcome back.

A monitoring group estimates that more than 5,000 people have been chased out by the fighting so far. That's before Iraqi troops had even set foot

inside Mosul itself and it could be weeks before they do so.

As they do get closer, things could get much worse. The U.N. reckons that about two out of three people who live there could flee -- and that means

we're talking 1 million people. We'll find out what's being done to prepare to help all of those people.

We are joined now by Geert Cappelaere (ph), who is UNICEF's regional director for the Middle East and is in Irbil right now, about an hour's

drive from Mosul.

And hee the warnings at the beginning of this offensive were ominous, concerns about a humanitarian catastrophe in the making.

A week on, what is the evidence on the ground at this point?

GEERT CAPPELAERE, UNICEF MIDDLE EAST: Well, Becky, I have been spending most of today in the De Bagha (ph) camp meeting, some of the close to 1,700

children who have arrived here in the De Bagha camp over the last week. I have been listening to their stories.

They're extremely sad stories of what they have gone through as children over the last two years but also sad stories of their journey out of Mosul

--

[11:20:00]

CAPPELAERE: -- and surrounding villages to get into the camp. It is extremely sad to hear the children telling stories. You don't want a

single child having to tell.

ANDERSON: Well, you've got a huge amount of experience working with kids, I know, in conflict zones, including in Yemen, in Sudan and in Sierra Leone

in the past.

What have you been hearing?

What are the stories that these kids are telling you?

And what do you expect to be dealing with in the weeks to come in Iraq from these kids?

CAPPELAERE: Well, the stories are, on the one hand, stories of almost two years being deprived of basic social services. Many of the children I

spoke to today have not been able to go to a school for the last two years.

Many of the mothers I spoke to today, who are very concerned that their children have not been able to get any life-saving vaccine over the last

two years. It's also sad to hear the protection challenges the children have suffered.

The children are extremely afraid. The children are frightened of what they have seen, of what still may be coming and the children have seen

atrocities and many of the children are very distressed.

So what we are facing is an important group of children that has been missing basic social services for a period of two years, an important group

of children that has been facing extreme violence. And so we have a huge challenge at hand there.

ANDERSON: And we're looking at some of the video, as you were speaking, of some of those kids, who got smiles on their faces as they find some

security.

Geert, Iraqi security forces said they would usher these fleeing families across the front lines. They said they would screen them in and then they

would escort civilians, men, women and kids, to camps.

This would be along humanitarian corridors, as they are known.

How did those who reached the camp, that you spoke to today, get there?

And is it clear that these humanitarian corridors are open, are operational and are safe for these fleeing civilians?

CAPPELAERE: Indeed. Several of the families have been benefiting from these corridors. But also an equal number of these families have been

moving on their own initiative.

So what is important is, today, a week into the conflict, that we see -- and it is important to emphasize -- the number of people getting out is

still fairly limited.

As was mentioned, the U.N. is estimating that the total number of people displaced so far is up to 5,000. So an important number of people is

staying behind.

And it is critical, therefore, that we, as international community, that we not only serve the people when they arrive at the camp but that we also

stand very ready to immediately move into the villages as soon as villages have gone back under the authority of the Iraqi government.

And it's very important, Becky, to hear stories today also of children who have been helped in their village immediately by an organization like

UNICEF within 24 hours after their village was liberated. So there are also promising stories out here.

ANDERSON: Which is great to hear. I know one of the less optimistic stories has been about the massive underfunding of U.N. agency effort in

Iraq.

Let me just get our viewers a sense of what's going on, referring to the U.N. looking for more and more aid money, the think tank, Global

Humanitarian Assistance, wrote -- and I quote -- "In 2013, there were 23 appeals, requesting a total of $13.2 billion, compared to 37 appeals

requesting a total of $20.2 billion so far in 2016."

We know the sort of work that you're doing is massively underfunded.

But we also realize that this is a massive jump in funding needed.

Look, how hard is it to get policymakers to put their money where their mouths are when it comes to --

[11:25:00]

ANDERSON: -- Mosul -- not even talking about Aleppo or Yemen or anywhere else this hour -- talking about Mosul?

How difficult is it at this point?

CAPPELAERE: Well, I think, Becky, these are important political choices to make. I am sure that there is no single head of government today that

would want to see more families migrating, migrating for example into Europe, families fleeing the violence in Mosul.

So it is, therefore, critical that we collectively invest here on the ground, allowing people, as soon as their villages are again safe, allowing

these people to try -- again, within their villages, that is also what the people themselves are asking. They don't ask to move out. They ask to

stay in their village. They ask just to live a normal life.

The children are asking me today just to be children. That's all what they ask and that will require an important investment, but an investment we

need to make now, not the moment people will start migrating and enter into areas like Europe.

ANDERSON: Sure. Now and for the long term, of course, in the country where they are from, where they want to go back to.

All right, Geert. Thank you for that.

Well, we began at this part of the show with the sound of church bells near Mosul, a city that used to be home to one of the oldest Christian

populations on Earth until more than 100,000 of them fled during the ISIS onslaught.

Those generations there -- because, remember, that Christianity today is (INAUDIBLE) and Islam all spring from this region. Still, many of those

who escaped from Iraq now don't think they'll ever go back and instead will stay in for example neighboring Jordan. CNN's Jomana Karadsheh has some of

their stories.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Most of those gathered here at St. Mary's Church in East Amman gave up everything for their faith

when ISIS took over their city, Mosul, two years ago. Christians were given two choices: leave or be killed.

Some ended up in neighboring Jordan with only the clothes on their backs.

They sing, "Our Father, who art in heaven," in Aramaic, the language of Jesus Christ.

Father Khalil Jaar (ph) has dedicated the past two years to helping refugees. His church has provided families with shelter, food and support.

Father Khalil (ph) says, even if Mosul is liberated, these refugees will not go back.

FATHER KHALIL JAAR, ST. MARY'S CHURCH: The Christians are very tired to be persecuted and to (INAUDIBLE) from place to place and they also are tired

already. They lost the hope to go back.

KARADSHEH (voice-over): Since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, Iraq's (ph) Christian community, once estimated at more than 1 million, has endured

countless attacks by extremist groups, forcing most to flee.

Under ISIS' reign of terror, churches were vandalized and destroyed. The group boasted about its attempts to wipe Christianity from the land where

it existed for centuries.

FATHER KHALIL (PH): Christianity will disappear perhaps from the Middle East. For me, as a priest, I don't have any -- I am not afraid because,

for the Christian, for the believers, wherever they go, this is a holy land.

KARADSHEH (voice-over): Two years ago, we met Ann Danielle (ph) and her family, who found sanctuary at St. Mary's. This one room is all her family

of five have to call home. Just mentioning Iraq and the life she once had in Mosul is still too painful for Ann (ph).

"When we left, it was all over for us," she says.

"When we left, we lost our homes, our memories. Everything was gone. I don't think we'll ever go back. It's too hard. I don't want my children

to live the same experience. We paid the price. I don't want to go back and in a few years the same thing will happen. It's constant, wars in

Iraq."

The family has been granted asylum and will be leaving soon to Australia. But it's bittersweet feelings. Ann's (ph) 10-month-old son, Josef (ph),

was born a refugee. She doesn't believe he will ever see Mosul.

"We will always remind him of his country," she says.

"We will tell him how we were forced out. We will tell him that we never thought we would leave our land. They forced us out of Mosul."

Ann (ph) prays every day for her family and for the country she once called home -- Jomana Karadsheh, CNN, Amman.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

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BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST (voice-over): The latest news world headlines are just ahead for you viewers. Plus, ready, set, go. We are in the final

sprint of the U.S. election and we'll tell you why both teams want a medal from Florida.

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ANDERSON: Welcome back. It's just after half past 7:00 in the UAE. I'm Becky Anderson. You're watching CONNECT THE WORLD. The top stories this

hour.

(HEADLINES)

ANDERSON: We are only 16 -- one-six -- days from the U.S. election, and new endorsements fueling both campaigns. The "Las Vegas Review-Journal"

putting its weight behind Donald Trump while "The New Yorker" backs Hillary Clinton.

Meanwhile, candidates fighting for swing states with Clinton in North Carolina and Donald Trump focused on Florida.

Trump comes off a speech Saturday in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, where he sketched out his priorities should he take office. He also made a new vow

to sue the women who have accused him of sexual assault.

Well, that didn't stop an 11th woman from coming forward on Saturday, claiming he touched her inappropriately, well, the Trump campaign strongly

denying all the accusations.

Well, Clinton's campaign says Donald Trump's focus on his accusers during that speech in Gettysburg shows his style of leadership. Campaign manager

Robby Mook spoke to --

[11:35:00]

ANDERSON: -- our Jake Tapper on "STATE OF THE UNION" earlier. This is what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROBBY MOOK, CLINTON CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Donald Trump claimed yesterday he was going to go out and roll out his final plan for the -- you know, for

the campaign, his final message, his plan for the first 100 days.

He spent time attacking his accusers. That's what this campaign is about. His top priority right now is to attack these people who are coming, who

are bringing up concerns. We're seeing it across the board.

He should just apologize and move on. But I think this is telling about what kind of president Donald Trump would be, that he's more concerned

about himself, that he attacks people who raise legitimate concerns about his behavior.

He's not talking about jobs. He's not talking about how he's going to help people afford health care or college. And so this should be an alarm bell

to voters.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: That was Robby Mook, manager of Hillary Clinton's campaign.

Since those accusations surfaced, support for Donald Trump has been dropping amongst white college-educated voters. So Jake asked his campaign

manager why Trump brought up his accusers at Saturday's speech. She says the media are leaving out Trump's plans for his first 100 days.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KELLYANNE CONWAY, TRUMP CAMPAIGN MANAGER: I was there at the speech yesterday in Gettysburg, Jake, and I think the most important part of the

speech is what you said, which is the 9-point plan, his promise to the American voters.

I worked on the original contract with America with Newt Gingrich and I tell you, it's very similar in this regard, it's specific; it's solution-

centric and it is new. And what would be new if people covered it fairly it's right in there how he's going to create 25 million jobs see elder care

and child care tax credit that benefits all Americans. Didn't air that. Should be of great interest to those white college-educated women that you

were talking about and, frankly, they're all Americans.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Right. So you've heard from the spokespeople. That was Kellyanne Conway, Donald Trump's campaign manager, speaking. That was Jake

Tapper earlier on.

Let's bring in the director for the Center of Politics at the University of Virginia. Larry Sabato joins us from Charlottesville via Skype.

Thank you, sir. The latest CNN "Poll of Polls" shows Clinton is holding a wide lead nationally in a four-way match. Let's have a look at that. The

average of the most recent national telephone polls shows her holding a 9- point lead amongst likely voters, up 48 percent to Trump's 39 percent.

Larry, your crystal ball has been predicting Clinton in what you described as a commanding position in the contest to become the 45th president for

some time now. CNN's electoral map shows her in a lead but not the sort of lead that you've been predicting. You'd have us believe this was a slam

dunk.

Why?

LARRY SABATO, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Well, we've actually done this for eight months and not for a single day or a single hour has Hillary Clinton

been behind in our reckoning. And we do have her at 352 electoral votes. We believe your poll's average is correct; she's up, 8, 9, 10, something

like that.

With that kind of margin, she's going to win almost all the battleground states, almost all of them. And she's already competing in Republican

territory, like Arizona.

ANDERSON: So is it all over, bar the shouting, as far as you're concerned?

I mean, you've forgotten more about polling and U.S. elections than we will ever know.

Is this -- it's all over, isn't it, as far as you're concerned?

SABATO: Well, there's always that tiny 1 percent chance that something big will happen in the last 16 days. But it's a failure of my imagination.

But I can't think of a thing that would reverse this presidential election. Even something terrible wouldn't necessarily make people vote for Donald

Trump.

Look, maybe it gets closer before Election Day or maybe it doesn't. But either way, Hillary Clinton is going to be the 45th President of the United

States.

ANDERSON: What does he need to do to lessen this gap?

SABATO: It would be useful if he stayed on the issues that got him the nomination and have made him popular in certain sectors of this country.

In fact, I was stunned to hear in your clip the Clinton campaign chairman, Robby Mook, give him some great advice. And the reason he's willing to

give him such great advice, even while being for Clinton, is because he knows Donald Trump isn't going to take it.

Donald Trump doesn't follow the advice that his own campaign manager gives him. He simply can't stay on topic. You mentioned yesterday, when he gave

his 100-day speech of what he was going to do in his first 100 days as president, he started off by attacking the 11 women who have come out and

accused him of sexual harassment.

Guess what got the headline almost everywhere --

[11:40:00]

SABATO: -- his 100-day plan is way down in all the domestic stories.

ANDERSON: How difficult a campaign has this been for Hillary Clinton to run?

In the end, we're looking at, what, 16 days out and the numbers across the electoral map, so far as polling is concerned on CNN's side, is about 307

electoral votes for you. I know your number is a lot bigger than that and that is what counts at the end of the day, is these electoral votes that

these candidates need in order to win the election.

Just how tough has this been for Hillary Clinton?

SABATO: Well, no one would envy her or probably anybody who goes through this process -- and this has been a very personal, nasty, negative

campaign. And that's true for both sides. But I think Clinton in particular has been attacked about every way that you can be attacked.

I would say that she starts off, if she does get elected president, in a very shaky position. She's going to be on thin ice. She's going to have

high unfavorabilities (sic). She's going to have to work hard at it.

And I'll tell you how you can tell on Election Night whether she has a real chance of being a successful president.

Does she and the Democrats, do they carry at least one House of Congress?

Probably the Senate rather than the House but she needs at least one House of Congress to be Democratic. So she'll have some backup.

ANDERSON: Will she get it?

SABATO: Right now, the Senate is leaning ever so slightly to the Democrats -- and I do mean ever so slightly. There are six and possibly seven tossup

races. We've got it 47 to 47 with six tossups.

You could argue Florida may be a tossup. I think the Democrats have made enough progress so that they will probably eke out a very narrow majority

in the Senate. And that's all she needs to get her cabinet confirmed, to get a Supreme Court justice confirmed, to get off to a good start.

ANDERSON: Fascinating stuff. We're going to have you back, sir. Thank you.

Hillary Clinton's performance and Donald Trump's stumble in the last debate, the subject of a sketch on this weekend's episode of "Saturday

Night Live." Have a look at this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Let's talk immigration.

Mr. Trump, why are your immigration policies better than Secretary Clinton's?

ALEC BALDWIN, ACTOR, "DONALD TRUMP": Because she wants open borders and that is crazy. I mean, people are just pouring into this country from

Mexico and a lot of them are very bad hombres.

KATE MCKINNON, COMEDIAN, "HILLARY CLINTON": Oh, bingo, bingo, I've got bingo.

(INAUDIBLE). I've been playing all year and I got it. I had "bad hombres," "rapists," "Miss Piggy," "they're all living in hell" and "if she

wasn't my daughter."

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, this week Richard Quest will be in the crucial swing state of Florida for you. You can watch his "American Quest" live from the

Sunshine State, all this week on "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS."

He'll be talking to the leaders and the voters who could all be key to deciding the next president. That begins 9:00 P -- or 9:00 pm on Monday in

London, midnight here in Abu Dhabi. Live from Abu Dhabi, this is CONNECT THE WORLD. I'm Becky Anderson.

Coming up, the fight against ISIS isn't just taking place in Iraq and in Syria. Libya is also trying to crush the group. I speak to the man tipped

to be the next prime minister -- that's after this.

Also we get the backstory behind some of this photographer's striking images. Stay tuned for our "Parting Shots," that's 10 minutes away.

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[11:45:00]

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ANDERSON: You're watching CNN. This is CONNECT THE WORLD with me, Becky Anderson. It is a quarter to 8:00 here in the UAE. Welcome back.

While the world's attention is on the fight in Mosul another battle against ISIS raging in Libya. But a power struggle there is very much complicating

the effort. Last week, I spoke to a man many see as a potential Libyan prime minister. A year ago he said himself he wants the job.

Dr. Aref Nayed (ph) has served as ambassador to the United Arab Emirates for five years. I began by asking him about Libya's efforts to fight

terror.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DR. AREF NAYED (PH) FORMER AMBASSADOR TO UAE: Just as the nodes of cancer spread all over the body, ISIS has been spread throughout the region, as a

matter of fact, throughout the world.

And Mosul is definitely an important node, it's a main node of the cancer; however, there are many other nodes. And just as the brave Iraqi people

fight this menace, the brave Libyan young people (INAUDIBLE) other towns are fighting ISIS and (INAUDIBLE) and are almost finished with this menace.

ANDERSON: Does it worry you that the attention of the international community might be lessened as a result of the successes?

NAYED (PH): I must say it was actually an uphill battle getting the Western world to focus on ISIS in Libya. I remember, in 2015, when I made

the tour to the United States to argue that we should pay attention to this menace and that we should fight ISIS in Libya, I was met with ridicule for

the most part.

Eventually we did get the assistance we needed. And we are grateful for it. It is extremely important not to limit our attention to ISIS. Al

Qaeda (ph) is still very much active in Libya and in other parts of North Africa and across the world. And Al Qaeda (ph) affiliates that go by other

names are still very active. Some of them even sit in dialogue meetings now, being somehow recognized by the U.N. process.

ANDERSON: Let's just talk about the upcoming U.S. election. For many Republicans, the word "Benghazi" is now synonymous with "cover-up." The

scrutiny of Hillary Clinton is not going to go away over the attack there.

What does Libya need from the next U.S. president?

NAYED (PH): What we need from the United States is basically respect, respect of other nations; as for Benghazi, if I were to advise a future

President Clinton, I would say, rather than deny Benghazi or escape from Benghazi, own Benghazi, meaning face up to the responsibility and let us

discuss what exactly happened in Benghazi.

For a long time the West failed to recognize that the successive Libyan regimes after the revolution were heavily infected by Islamist radicals of

the kind that actually killed the American ambassador.

If I were President Clinton, I would actually go back to this issue and I would go and help reconstruct Benghazi. And I would go back to Libya and

make a success of Libya with the -- with the -- with the -- by helping the Libyan people rebuild it.

ANDERSON: Many people say Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar (ph) is the only potential president on the horizon.

Is he?

Is he a unifying figure?

NAYED (PH): I don't think the Libyan people have fought so hard and have sacrificed so many thousands of lives and so many lost limbs and

aspirations and health and various other valuables in order to have a military dictatorship.

I do not think that anyone intends on that, not even Khalifa Haftar (ph) himself.

ANDERSON: You say gone are the years of the dictator, the autocrat (ph), the strong man, as it were.

Five years after Gadhafi, what do you think Libya's greatest achievement has been?

[11:50:00]

NAYED (PH): Well, it -- I can -- I can -- it is very painful for me to answer this question.

What I can tell you is that, having gone out in the streets in the very early days of the revolution and contributed to its success, I very much

regret that the state in which we are in right now -- and this regret is extremely deep because I see more torture than we had before, more killings

than we had before, more thievery than we had before.

I see a deterioration of infrastructure. I see a deterioration of the health care system, of education. We are worse off on just about every

point.

However, the one thing that's extremely important is we that we do have an open horizon to build something new.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANDERSON: Well, since that interview was taped, Dr. Nayed (ph) has resigned amid speculation that he will pursue plans to head a new unity

government.

It's five years ago this month that Libyan dictator, Moammar Gadhafi, was killed during a Western-backed war. CNN's international diplomatic editor

Nic Robertson was on the ground during that war. You can read his reflections on Libya's path since. That is on cnn.com. That's cnn.com.

And we are staying in Libya for our "Parting Shots." Next, a photographer who covered the conflict tells us the story behind one shot in particular.

Stay tuned for that.

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ANDERSON: You're watching CNN. This is CONNECT THE WORLD with me, Becky Anderson. Welcome back.

The Chicago Cubs are headed to the World Series. They beat the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the National League pennant on Saturday night.

They will face the American League champions Cleveland Indians. Game one is set for Tuesday night in Cleveland.

Cubs fans were out on the streets of Chicago celebrating. They haven't been to the World Series since -- get this -- 1945. The last time they won

it was 1908.

We'll have your "Parting Shots" this Sunday, photographer and World Press Photo winner Benjamin Lowy recounts the story behind a shooting in war-torn

Libya, which became the tale of one of his best-known shots.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

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BENJAMIN LOWY, PHOTOGRAPHER: People see close to 5,000 images a day.

So how do you get through to them?

My name is Benjamin Lowy. I'm a photographer based in New York City.

Shooting something in a different way is like this esthetic bridge that can gap the public's apathy toward seeing anything new and what I'm trying to

show.

I got some grant money to go to Libya. My fixer at the time, this guy named Omar, we were traveling together for a month and there was a bullet

hole in his car this whole time. And it was great because I'd always be sitting and like framing things as we were driving, through the bullet

hole.

And then after a while, that just becomes a cliche. And like, I am paying him enough so that we can change this car window if we need to.

Why do we have a bullet hole in the windshield?

He was like, well, Ben, it's a story.

[11:55:00]

LOWY: He pulls out a cigarette.

During the war, he was in the west of the country and on the side of the rebels but here's a man, he wasn't really interested in fighting.

He was just like, I just what I have to do to free my country. And he was driving back and forth. And a sniper shot at him and missed. And it went

through his windshield and hit the back seat of the car.

And he got out of his car and he aimed and he shot this guy and he killed him.

And he was like, Ben, I never wanted to kill anyone my entire life. And it hurt me. And it haunted me and I couldn't sleep and I couldn't eat for

three days and I was depressed because I killed another human being. And I don't want to ever do that again.

So I leave this bullet hole as a reminder.

This idea of shooting it with a phone not only created interesting images but I think it had like this little psychological twist where, when people

could see pictures that I was making with a tool that they had in their back pocket, I was just getting through to an audience in a different way.

My photographs are just this thing that I do, that I love to do and the legacy that they leave will be about this document, what I've seen and what

I've been able to record and hopefully they can educate people. That's all I can hope for.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANDERSON: For more on what war photographers go through to bring us amazing pictures from conflict zones around the world, use the Facebook

page to learn more about Pulitzer Prize winner Lindsey Addario's (ph) experience, risking her life for 15 years to get the perfect shot. There's

that and other stories, facebook.com/cnnconnect.

I'm Becky Anderson. That was CONNECT THE WORLD. Thank you for watching; your headlines follow this very short break. So don't go away.

END