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Early Voting Begins in Florida; Trump Campaign Manager Concedes Uphill Fight; Trump Fights for White House, GOP Fights for Congress; Clinton Turns Attention to Down-Ballot Races; Obama Slams Rubio's Support of Trump; Trump: Polls About Women are "Inaccurate". Aired 10- 10:30a ET

Aired October 24, 2016 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:00:00]

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you for joining me. We are down to 15 days until Election Day. Although for most of Florida today, early voting has begun. It is a state that Donald Trump has to win to have a shot at the White House and Trump certainly knows that. He's in the middle of a three-day blitz of that state as a new poll shows his campaign falling even farther behind. The stakes here undoubtedly high, has his own campaign manager concedes an uphill climb.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KELLYANNE CONWAY, TRUMP CAMPAIGN MANAGER: We are behind. She has some advantages like $56 million in ad buys just in the month of September. She has tremendous advantages. She has a former president who happens to be her husband campaigning for her, the current president and first lady, vice president, all much more popular than she can hope to be, and -- but she's seen as the incumbent.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: CNN's Jason Carroll is at a polling place in Miami this morning. Good morning, Jason.

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And not just any polling place. We are here at the Clark Government Center here in downtown Miami. The scene of that recount, you remember that one, back in 2000, hopefully not this go-around. Today, though, Carol, it is all about early voting. Half of all the residents here in the state of Florida expected to cast their votes in the early voting period. The candidates know just how important this state is. That's why you have Tim Kaine campaigning in the state. You have Donald Trump in Naples yesterday. He's making two stops today. Here at this particular site you can see the voting stations set up behind me. We have seen sort of a steady stream of folks coming in. The spokesman from the Board of Elections telling us that they expect more folks to keep coming out as each day passes. Donald Trump knows that. Yesterday in Naples, he was out encouraging all his supporters to get out and vote.

(BEGIN VIDE CLIP) DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You have to get out and vote and that includes helping me re-elect Republicans all over the place. I hope they help me, too. Be nice if they help us, too, right?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARROLL: Well, Trump is trailing Clinton here in state polls but Trump says ignore those polls. He says that those polls are wrong. Once again, Carol, Trump making every effort to get his supporters out to the polls. Carol?

COSTELLO: All right. Jason Carroll reporting live from Miami this morning while Trump blitzes Florida, his running mate Mike Pence is in North Carolina. And among the Democrats, Hillary Clinton rolls out some heavy hitters. She teams up with Senator Elizabeth Warren today as Vice President Joe Biden campaigns in Ohio. Tim Kaine stumps in the sunshine state where Bill Clinton will be tomorrow. CNN's Jeff Zeleny is here with this final stretch of the campaigns. Good morning.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning Carol. Really for the third straight day, Hillary Clinton is in the battleground state but not a presidential one only, a Senate battleground as well. And she'll be in a fourth tomorrow in Florida. She is increasingly focusing on the down-ballot races. We could feel a shift in this campaign over the weekend that she is increasingly focusing on those Senate races. They need four Senate seats for Democrats to tie Republicans and five or six to have the Majority. And they have them in their sights. New Hampshire is one of those states. But perhaps one of the best Democratic campaigners out there this weekend was President Obama. Here's what he had to say last night in Las Vegas.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We can't elect Hillary and then saddle her with a Congress that is do-nothing, won't even try to do something, won't even get their own stuff passed, much less the stuff you want passed. All they got to offer is blocking and obstructing every step of the way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: I mean, that is the look of someone there who, a, does not have to run for office again and b, is really letting loose on the campaign trail. Both the president and the first lady Michelle Obama campaigning way more than they ever planned to do, adding extra days to the campaign schedule because they know their legacy is at stake as well. But one of the biggest thing that happened during the Obama Administration, Republicans won so many seats across the country in state legislative races, other things, so he's trying to use this bit of extra energy here trying to tie Donald Trump to all of these Republicans to make up for some of those lost seats by Democrats. But I have covered him for a long time, never quite seen him quite as free and loose as he is appearing on the campaign trail. COSTELLO: I know, it looks like he's having fun.

ZELENY: He's a couple months away from early retirement, I guess.

COSTELLO: And then he'll say, I'm out of here. Thanks very much, Jeff Zeleny. All right, so let's break this down, this final sprint to Election Day. Patricia Murphy is a columnist for "The Daily Beast" and "Roll Call," and Rebecca Berg is a CNN political analyst and national political reporter for "Real Clear Politics." Welcome to both of you.

PATRICIA MURPHY, COLUMNIST, "THE DAILY BEAST" AND "ROLL CALL": Good morning, Carol.

REBECCA BERG, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Thank you Carol.

COSTELLO: Good morning. So, Rebecca, let's talk about "Real Clear Politics" because yesterday, you guys moved Texas -- Texas into the toss-up column on the electoral map, along with other traditionally red states like Georgia and Arizona. Is there really a likelihood, that Clinton could win

[10:05:16] these states?

BERG: Well, just because a state is in the toss-up category, doesn't mean that it's likely Clinton could win there. You will notice that Minnesota is still a toss-up on our map as well. And that's a state that usually leans Democratic in the same way that Texas usually leans Republican. But what this shows and what this reflects really, Carol, is how different the map is looking as a result of Donald Trump's candidacy and Hillary Clinton's strength as well. I mean, the fact that Texas is even potentially a toss-up is an incredible dynamic that we haven't see in many, many years. In fact, the last Democrat who actually sought to play in Texas was Bill Clinton. He made campaign tops there in 1992 and 1996. But that was when, you know, Texas used to be in play for Democrats. It's changed a lot since then. So it's a really remarkable situation we find ourselves in now with just two weeks to go.

COSTELLO: It is remarkable but Patricia, is it an aberration?

MURPHY: This entire campaign is an aberration, Carol. I have to tell you. I think we all know that. I think Donald Trump is an aberration. The reason that Texas is not entirely an aberration is because of the changing demographics in that state. You can also point to changing demographics in Georgia and North Carolina. These states are becoming younger and less white and that is trending much more towards the Democrats, when you talk about those groups of populations. So it's an aberration in a way that it's so close this year but these states will be close in the future and even much closer than they have been in the past because of those changing demographics. So the answer is yes and no, but we will see more of this in the future, not less.

COSTELLO: OK. So Rebecca, Hillary Clinton is already talking about her transition team. Word is, is that she's quietly reaching out to Senate Republicans, that she may have to work with if she gets to be President of the United States. So is this a touch of arrogance that I'm going to win or a smart thing to do? Will this energize her voters or Mr. Trump's voters to go to the polls?

BERG: Well, I think it's a smart thing to do just because we are two weeks away from her potentially having to go into full transition mode. And so it's the type of thing you would expect at this stage, frankly. And let's not forget that Hillary Clinton was a senator so many of these Republican senators who she might be reaching out to, are people she's worked with in the past so she's probably reconnecting with some of her former colleagues there.

But it is actually required by law to plan your transition. That's why both of the campaigns have transition teams and have had for many months now. And so I imagine that both of the transition teams are ramping up their operations at this stage because one of these candidates is going to win. They have to be prepared when they do to assume the presidency and a transition is a big undertaking. It's not just picking your cabinet but picking people to work in agencies all across the federal government. We're talking about hundreds of appointments, the new president would need to make. It's a really monumental undertaking.

COSTELLO: Interesting. OK, so let's go back to early voting. We talked a lot about it at the top of our show. Our partners at the Firm Catalyst have found that so far, five million Americans have voted early, with Florida leading the way at over one million ballots cast. Democrats outnumber Republicans at Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio. Republicans hold an early vote advantage in Nevada and Florida. So Patricia, what impact could reports about early voting have on those who have yet to head to the polls?

MURPHY: Well, early, but you need to, I think, take early voting numbers with a grain of salt or just some more information we know who is voting, we don't know how they are voting and we don't know why they are voting. So this is helpful information to tell us a little bit about enthusiasm. I think it really tells us a lot more about a campaign's ground game. And so if you look at a state like North Carolina, the Clinton campaign and Democrats generally have an enormous ground game there. Their entire focus is early voting, knocking on people's doors saying have you early voted, do you know when to do it, do you know where to do it. The Trump campaign has no such operation. I dropped in on two ground game operations, I guess you could say, the Clinton operation was buzzing like a beehive and the Donald Trump campaign had one man learning how to use the phone, in North Carolina. So, it's a really different situation, these early voting numbers are really good display of those ground game operations, in particular it also shows you any significant outliers and I think Utah is going to be a state that is popping up as an outlier based on the early voting swing -- a big, big swing in Utah. So, I think, that's a state to keep an eye on because of those numbers.

COSTELLO: So Rebecca, so many people have decided to vote early, does that show that voters really are enthusiastic about voting even though they may not like either candidate? BERG: It could be a measure of enthusiasm, absolutely. But I would agree with Patricia, that is really a reflection of the ground games that we see from these campaigns and the fact of the matter is that Hillary Clinton and Democrats have one

[10:10:16] and Donald Trump's campaign does not. He has been leaning entirely on the Republican National Committee for his ground game. And as we have heard reported in recent weeks, the Republican National Committee is now looking to shift its focus to turning out target voters for Senate races, for House races. They are basically conceding that the presidential race is not their strongest focus at this point, is not a good use of their time. And so Donald Trump is left with bare-boned staff, in all of these, key battleground states. They don't have the sort of racehorses to be knocking on doors, calling people at the level of the Clinton campaign which has been on the ground in some cases for more than a year in these battleground states.

COSTELLO: All right. I have to leave it there. Patricia Murphy, Rebecca Berg, thanks as always.

BERG: Thank you.

MURPHY: Thank you.

COSTELLO: You're welcome. Still to come in the "Newsroom" as Donald Trump battles Hillary Clinton for the White House, his fellow Republicans are fighting to keep control of Congress. How much will the top of the ticket influence Capitol Hill?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:15:16] COSTELLO: Hillary Clinton is not only looking for a win but a blowout and now she and her powerful surrogates are looking to strengthen her possible presidency by trashing Republicans running for Congress. Here's Clinton in Pennsylvania and President Obama in Florida.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: How much more does Pat Toomey need to hear? If he doesn't have the courage to stand up to Donald Trump after all this, then can you be sure he will stand up for you?

OBAMA: Marco Rubio said this was a dangerous con artist who spent a lifetime, spent a career, sticking it to working people. Now, that begs the question. Since we're in Florida, why does Marco Rubio still plan to vote for Donald Trump? And there are a lot of politicians like Marco Rubio who know better but they just look the other way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Democrats need to pick up four seats to take control of the Senate. They need 30 seats to take control of the House of Representatives. Republicans, needless to say, are a little freaked out with this. With me now is Mike Shields, CNN political commentator and president of the Congressional Leadership Fund. Welcome.

MIKE SHIELDS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Hey, I'm not freaked out. Welcome. How are you?

COSTELLO: You're not freaked out, really?

SHIELDS: I'm not freaked out. No.

COSTELLO: Why not?

SHIELDS: Well, because on the Democratic side of the ticket is the least liked Democratic presidential nominee probably in history. And so, for some reason, the Democrats live in this -- sort of fantasy world where only one of the presidential candidates has some problems and they sort of somehow forget that Hillary Clinton is incredibly disliked by the American people.

And so, in every single Congressional race that my organization is playing -- we have ads up in 30 different districts. In every single one of them, Hillary Clinton's unfavorable are higher than her favorable. And in every single one of them, if you ask the voters would you like a member of Congress to help Hillary Clinton or someone who would go and stop Hillary Clinton, stop her wins. And so, I understand the president and Hillary are going to go around the country and try to tie candidates to Donald Trump. The voters aren't really buying that. In the meantime --

COSTELLO: But how can you say that in the state of Florida, for example, where Marco Rubio is running neck and neck against the Democrat, Patrick Murphy, who has very little political experience? Marco Rubio appears to be in trouble.

SHIELDS: Well, I can say it from polling. I do quite a bit of polling. Let's look at Carlos Curbelo's district in Florida's -- 26th Congressional district down in Miami. Donald Trump is losing that district to Hillary Clinton. Marco Rubio is winning the district and Carlos Curbelo is winning the district. The voters are saying we are going to split tickets because while we may be voting for Hillary for whatever our reason is, we don't like Hillary very much. Her unfavorable are too high and we want a Congress that will do something to stop her. And so you are seeing that in district after district across the country. --

COSTELLO: What happened in New Hampshire and Kelly Ayotte? Who said during a debate with her Democratic opponent that she thought Donald Trump was a role model then she had to walk those comments back and she's losing rather badly, at the moment.

SHIELDS: I think that she's outpolling the top of the ticket. Look, we make no illusions, I believe, in the House that we have had a challenging environment at the top of the ticket. We have been prepared for it. We talked about it. I talked about it with you for months. We certainly have done voter models to understand how voters will split tickets and how we'll approach this election. I believe that our party has been prepared for this. What's interesting is the Democratic Party seems completely unprepared for the idea that Hillary Clinton is stopping them from making the gains that they would like to make, that she's incredibly disliked by the American people. They don't trust her. And that she's actually causing a lot of their Congressional and Senate candidates a huge problem in state after state and district after district. But they are sort of not allowed to say that because she's still part of the Democratic Party establishment, they can't acknowledge it.

You know, the polling that we have seen, there are voters that are voting for Trump purely because they dislike Hillary Clinton so much in larger numbers than there are voters that would vote for Hillary because they dislike Donald Trump. So, she's actually driving more voter intensity than Donald Trump is but you wouldn't know that from listening to the rally that you are just playing.

COSTELLO: Well, you mentioned the ads that you are putting on the air and on the web. We actually have one. And it seems those ads are implying that Mr. Trump will lose the presidential election. So let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: America's future is far from certain. But no matter who the next president is, New Hampshire needs a strong voice in the U.S. Senate. That senator, Kelly Ayotte. She works across the aisle to get things done. Maggie Hassan's record -

COSTELLO: So, the ad says but no matter who wins the White House. Why doesn't it specifically say when Donald Trump wins?

SHIELDS: Well, because it's an ad for the United States Senate, it's not a presidential campaign ad.

[10:20:16] And I think, look, we didn't -- that's not one of our ads but it's certainly something I understand. Senators are going to run their own races in their own states. House Members are going to run their campaigns in their own districts. And we understand that the top of the ticket is a challenging environment.

My point is, I believe that it's also challenging for Democrats that are trying to run for Congress and win in these competitive districts. You know, one of the tactics the Democrats have at this point is to try and tell people that this Member of Congress is Donald Trump and they are trying to match them up. The voters are smarter than that. They don't believe that. They know that Donald Trump has his own brand. Hillary Clinton does not have her own brand. Hillary Clinton is a Washington insider, has been part of the problem what's going on in D.C. This is more of an insider/outsider election. And so tying Democratic candidates to Hillary Clinton is actually a much more successful strategy for us than trying to explain to the voters something that they know is not true which is that Donald Trump and their Member of Congress are the same person.

COSTELLO: Mike shields, thanks for stopping by. I do appreciate it.

Still to come in the "Newsroom," early voting results show more women are heading to the polls. Could that be a boost for Clinton?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:25:52] COSTELLO: And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton blitzing battleground states and millions of people are early voting. Five million, actually, all across the country casting their ballots and plenty of them are women. But here's the thing, whoever wins the White House, Clinton or Trump, Republican women in particular will still feel disenfranchised although Donald Trump disagrees.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I'll tell you what. We're doing well in the polls but you know, I really think those polls are very inaccurate when it comes to women. I think we're doing better with women than with men, frankly. So we're setting records with men but I want to set records with women to me. And I hate to tell the men this, but if I could swap, I would swap you out so fast.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: OK. But Clinton has a 20-point advantage over Mr. Trump with women in ABC's latest poll. So, let's talk about that split and what it means for the future, especially for Republican women. With me now is Margaret Hoover, CNN political commentator and a Republican consultant. Welcome.

MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Thanks for having me, Carol.

COSTELLO: Thanks. So, how are - because you know, if you look at this ABC poll, and we broke it down, among college educated white women who normally vote for Republicans, Hillary Clinton now has a 32- point advantage.

HOOVER: Yes.

COSTELLO: 32 points.

HOOVER: The fact that Hillary Clinton is leading in this election generally, nationally, in all these states in the national numbers is actually when you look at it cross tabs is because of women. He's basically - I mean, the male vote is basically splitting the way it has historically but women are really falling away from Donald Trump in a historic way. And by the way, you should know that in the last presidential election cycle, 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 12 percentage points. Previously, John McCain had lost the female vote in by the double digits. So, there has historically been a foundation that is not strong on the Republican side for getting the female vote. But this is unprecedented. I mean, really, the bottom is falling out.

COSTELLO: So, will things change within the Republican Party because of this election for women?

HOOVER: I mean, there have been, you should know, because this isn't a new problem, really concerted, efforts at the electoral side, on the fund raising side, across the board, Republicans certainly in the establishment, if you would call it, have recognized we don't have as many elected Republicans in the Senate as the Democrats do or in the House of representatives, let alone at the state legislative level across the country. We recognize and have for some time that we need to do a better job electing more female Republicans. The best job you can do, the best emissaries you can have if trying to recruit women voters is to have female elected Republicans in office. So, we have been trying, but it hasn't worked yet.

COSTELLO: Here's the thing. I went to Ohio and I talked to voters. And I talked to more than one woman who has talked to their Republican husbands and said what is the deal, how could you support Donald Trump or at least how can you continue to say that these comments that he makes about women don't really matter. I mean, there's that frustration here. So, I guess I'm wondering after the election, will Republican women continue to revolt, because they feel that their male counterparts just don't get them.

HOOVER: Well, -- when you look at the polling, certainly in states that are very evenly divided that could go either way but are certainly now trending towards - away from Donald Trump's - like Nevada, for example, Nevada had a very tight contested Senate race, that has recently broken for the Democratic contender and is breaking away from Donald Trump. When you look at all of the cross-tabs of women voters in Nevada, actually Republican women are still in line with Donald Trump. But it's not about Republican women. It is independent women and independent-leaning women, suburban women, as you said, white college educated women that are not voting for Donald Trump and aren't voting for Republicans. And that's who we need to increase our influence with.

COSTELLO: So, what are Republicans not doing right? When it comes to --

HOOVER: Look, I think we need more female messengers out making the case for our ideas. We don't have a lot of women in leadership positions within the Republican context. I mean, there's Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and that's sort of it on the House side. And so, we frankly need to get more - my opinion is we have to get more women elected into office.