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Report: Source Says Comey Doesn't Have Partisan Bone in Body; CNN is on the Ground as Iraqi Forces Near ISIS Center: Battleground States Release Early Voting Numbers; Former Miss Universe Campaigns with Clinton. Aired 3:30-4p ET

Aired November 01, 2016 - 15:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[15:30:00] JIM GILMORE, FORMER REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And it's totally improper. He was drawn into this thing, he put a statement that helps Hillary Clinton and said the whole thing was over with but that wasn't true so now you have to correct the record otherwise he was going to be accused of covering up Hillary Clinton so I think Comey was put in a difficult situation, I think he is doing the best he can do, and a commendable job as director of the FBI.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: On Republicans, Jim Geraghty here, the Ohio governor has revealed he wrote in John McCain for president on the ballot. In the last hour, I was talking to former senator Rick Santorum who was calling out governor Kasich and also governor Jeb Bush. In case you missed it, here was the highlight.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RICK SANTORUM, FORMER REPUBLICAN SENATOR: John Kasich, if you're watching, you signed a pledge saying you would support the Republican nominee for president. You signed a pledge to get on the ballot in South Carolina, you promised you would follow through and you knew Donald Trump had a chance because he was leading in the polls to be our nominee and you signed it anyway. You can't say a man who's not going to keep his word is someone that, frankly, should be paid attention to when it comes to how he is going to vote.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: So, he was saying to both Jeb Bush and John Kasich, shame on you, you signed this pledge. Jim, what do you think? Do you think voters care about pledges with seven days to go?

JIM GERAGHTY, SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, NATIONAL REVIEW:

Please tell me we are not going to be watching John Kasich arguing with Rick Santorum and Jeb Bush three years from now in the next presidential primary. I feel like we're in "Groundhog Day" just watching the same faces over and over again. I'd much rather watch governor Gilmore.

BALDWIN: Governor Gilmore, did you enjoy that?

GERAGHTY: Did John Kasich make the pledge? Yes. You know what? This is going to hurt anymore in the 2016 Republican primary. The Republican primary voter will hold that against him.

BALDWIN: 2020, you mean?

GERAGHTY: No, he's still running this time. I believe he's still running for president of Ohio basically that is what his campaign amounted to. John Kasich is continuing the strong tradition of Republicans named John being advised by John Weaver and running as the Republican for candidate for people who don't really like Republicans.

He tried the same one that Jon Huntsman ran, the same one John McCain ran. We see where it got him. I just don't see Republicans clamoring for another -- give us another shot at John Kasich four years from now. I think John Kasich is about ready to ride off into the sunset but maybe he can do it with a clear conscience now.

GILMORE: I agree with Jim Geraghty on that. I just don't think that you run for statewide or national office and call on the loyalties of rank-and-file Republicans to put yard signs and go door to door and turn around and tell them you won't support their candidate. That's not loyal and proper and I would never do it.

GERAGHTY: Am I the only one surprised he didn't write in himself?

GILMORE: Yes, well that would be one vote, anyway.

BALDWIN: Ouch!

GERAGHTY: Jim Gilmore slamming John Kasich for not getting a lot of votes.

GILMORE: Loyalty. Unity and loyalty is the only way we'll beat Hillary Clinton and keep her out of the White House and that's what I'm trying to do.

BALDWIN: All right, gentlemen, governor Gilmore and Jim Geraghty, thank you, thank you so much. Not a lot of love for John Kasich on this show today with my guests.

Just into CNN, new figures on how many people have voted early, how they're identifying politically. There was good news and bad news for both parties, especially in certain key battleground states.

[15:35:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Seven days away from election day, got some good news and bad news for Republicans and Democrats of these key battleground states. CNN has partnered with Catalyst, a data company that works with progressive candidates and groups to get detailed information on early voting this year and we have new numbers just in from some of these key states.

With me, CNN politics executive editor Mark Preston, Reed Wilson is with us today, national correspondent at The Hill. Guys, great to have you on. Mark, what are the numbers?

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: In 38 states people are already voting, election week a week ago. I just said about 24.5 million people have already cast their ballot. Let's see where they are in the battleground states.

About 12.5 million people in the battleground states have already cast their votes so that's the states right now where Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and their surrogates are spending all of their time. Let's look at two specific states.

Florida, 3.6 million people have already cast their vote in the state of Florida, the breakdown right now is about even at this point, Republicans have a little bit of an edge, this would normally be very good news for Democrats but let us not go too quick. Look at what the advantage at this time back in 2008, Democrats had the edge and they're off by about 2.9%, that's significant and Democrats will try to make that up in the next week or so.

Then look at this right here. This is the independent vote nearly a fifth of the electorate, more than 700,000 people are either independents or aligned with another political party. Look at Arizona, democrats contesting this state right now about one million people have already voted. We dig into these numbers right now and look where we are.

[15:40:00] Republicans have an advantage of about four points but not so fast again, when you go deeper into the numbers look at the advantage they had back then, back in 2012. It was about 10 points. It's been cut to four points that the point. What's interesting about Arizona, Brooke, Donald Trump has spent zero dollars in this state of Arizona in terms of political advertising, he has held big rallies

and, of course, Hillary Clinton is trying to make a run at it but we'll see what happens, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Now to you, Reed, we get these numbers, we salivate over the early voting numbers and it's no surprise more and more people are early voting. My question for you is, is this any indicator of how a race could go on any state on election day.

REED WILSON, NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT, "THE HILL": It is and Mark is very smart to put up the context from 2012 and we'll been looking at context from earlier years as well. About 40% of Americans will cast their ballot before election day and the two parties are combing through their list of supporters, the voter files they have in these states and they're trying to turn out as many of their core supporters as possible so they can focus their dollars on actual persuasion.

The big difference between the two sides is Democrats have a paid field team that is about three times the size of the paid field team the Republicans have. Take a look at the battleground states, add in the Clinton campaign and the Democratic national committee and there are more than 5,100 paid Democratic staffers in the key states that will determine this election.

On the Republican side, about 1400. That's not everything but at the end of the day in a one or two-point race, that number of people turning out as many voters as possible is where you can change an election. BALDWIN: Quickly on Florida, I was just there this weekend and I was

struck by how so many people were undecided. What was your biggest take away?

WILSON: Florida is a great example of where the numbers in context are hugely important. Democrats are not necessarily doing as well as they have been doing in the past. The key in Florida just like a lot of the states is the unaffiliated voters how are they breaking down? Independent voters have tended to favor the Republican candidate in the last couple presidential elections, self-identified moderate voters tend to favor the Democratic candidates.

How are the voters breaking down? Especially new voters in a state like Florida who are overwhelmingly likely to be younger, who favor Democrats, minorities and immigrants both of whom favor Democrats as well.

BALDWIN: Speaking of Florida, Reed, thank you very much. Let's go to Florida. Let's go to this Hillary Clinton rally. Former Miss Universe Alicia Machado, you remember she was thrust in the thick of controversies involving Donald Trump and some tweeting at 3:00 in the morning. Let's listen.

ALICIA MACHADO, FORMER MISS UNIVERSE: I was the first Miss Universe after Trump bought the pageant. I was honored to represent my country, Venezuela. And to be Miss Universe 1996.

But I was only 18 years old. There was still so much I didn't know. Trump was overwhelming. I was scared of him. He made fun of me, and I didn't know how to respond. He told me that I looked ugly and I was massive.

He even called me names. Miss Piggy, Miss Housekeeping, soon, it became a joke. Alicia Mach ado was the fat Miss Universe. It was really painful for me. He was cruel. For years afterwards I was sick, fighting back eating disorders. (Spanish)

[15:45:00] It's really clear that he does not respect women. He just judges us on our looks. He thinks he can do whatever he wants and get away with it.

Well, now I'm standing here on behalf of women and Latinos across the country. Americans who have been horrified with his dangerous ideas and vision of America. And together we are going to say loudly and clearly no Trump. He's not getting away with it.

Hillary has been fighting for women, children, and Latinos, just average people like me and you her entire life. When she was still a student, she traveled across Texas to register Latino voters and make sure they were able to make their voices heard. When she was first lady she organized the first ever White House conference on Hispanic children, and when she was in the senate she fought for comprehensive immigration reform with a path to citizenship.

Those are just a few reasons why I support Hillary Clinton. She's going to fight to fix our broken immigration system so families can stay together and everyone can take part in the American dream. That's important to me and so many other people in Florida.

She's going to make sure that women finally get equal pay for their work. And she's going to work to make jobs better for families so everyone can be a good worker and a good parent. I've been talking to voters, signing up volunteers and making calls. There is so much enthusiasm for Hillary across the state so to all my fellow Floridians who have the right to vote, vote early, vote today and to all the Latinos, this is our election, Latinos. (Spanish)

Let's work our hearts out so we can finally say "Madam President." On November 8. It is really an honor and my pleasure to introduce the next president of the United States of America, Hillary Clinton.

BALDWIN: We just wanted to make sure we dipped in. That was Alicia Machado former Miss Universe. She outlined it all. How she was embroiled in the thick of this controversy which was addressed at one of the debates here between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Obviously, they're reaching out they are reaching out to Floridians, young people and Hispanics. They want women to vote and vote as early as they can. Let's listen.

HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Hello Dade City! Wow! I am so excited about being here. Thank you all for this really, warm wonderful welcome.

[15:50:00] And I think, on behalf of all of us, I want to thank Alicia Machado for that introduction and for sharing, sharing her story with us. Alicia will be voting for the very first time in this election. And I am very grateful for her support. I am also delighted that your great senator, Bill Nelson, and his wife Grace.

I also want to thank representative Amanda Hickman from the Florida state house, Michael Cox, chairman of the Greater Pasco Chamber of Commerce. Michael Ledbetter, who is the Pasco county Democratic executive committee chair and his wife Beverly. And thanks to retired colonel Wilson Elton for his pledge of allegiance, and thanks to all of the elected officials here. I especially want to thank all of you for, not just joining us, but helping us to get out the vote in this last week!

BALDWIN: All right. So, Hillary Clinton there. Dade City, Florida, one of multiple stops she is making. Phil Mattingly is at the event. I just mentioned in listening to Alicia Machado intro her, we know obviously, who they're trying to target, who they want to vote. You know, Florida. Multiple stops. Both Hillary Clinton and her husband. Can you hear me, Phil?

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I got you, Brooke. I think the interesting thing here, obviously, is if you look over the dynamic over the course of the last 72 hours, huge news on Friday, what the Clinton campaign has done since. You have seen them, obviously, attack regularly James Comey, attack the letter he sent to capitol hill.

You've also seen them move in a series of directions to try to kind of get past it. You've seen Hillary Clinton try to maintain her strategy. You've also seen things like at we just saw behind me. Alicia Machado obviously became a huge negative issue of the campaign for Donald Trump, introducing Hillary Clinton. Part of a strategy you have seen in Florida repeatedly over the last couple of days, Brooke.

Hillary Clinton went to Volusia county to target African American voters. She went to a different part of the state to target LGBT voters. Alicia Machado coming out talking about registering Latino voters. This is how the Clinton campaign thinks they can win.

Even amongst all the sound and noise that is going on the outside, Brooke. Getting their coalition to come out to vote. That occurs here in Florida, in North Carolina, a bunch of different battleground states. That's how they win and get past everything that's clogged up the campaign for them over the course of the last couple of days, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Phil, thank you so much in Florida. As we listen in to Hillary there. We know that one of her tip-top surrogates, the president of the United States, he will be speaking in the battleground state of Ohio. We're going to listen for him momentarily. We'll take a quick break and we'll be right back.

[15:55:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Iraqi troops are now within just a couple hundred yards of entering the city of Mosul after sealing off the last village on the city's outskirts, this is the final push to flush out ISIS terrorists. And CNN cameras were there. We really wanted to share this with you today. Look at this moment. This is an emotional reunion between an Iraqi soldier and his family who he hasn't seen in two years. The lieutenant was working to clear Mosul when he spotted his young son and parents in a group of fleeing refugees.

I want to bring in retired Air Force colonel and CNN military analyst Cedrick Leighton. Colonel, great to have you back. I would love to just begin with the people of Mosul.

We've been talking to our correspondents there, a little over a million people in the city. There are reports that people there are being held against their will. From a military perspective, knowing what's happening here in the city, what do you do with those civilians?

COLONEL CEDRICK LEIGHTON, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: That's going to be the biggest, biggest problem, Brooke, because it's a problem from the sense of a military invasion. Any type of activity that you use to try to get into a city like this, it's going to have to take these civilians into account. And the fact that they are there and the fact that ISIS may probably use them as human shields really compounds the problem that any force is going to have to try to liberate that city.

This is going to be a really difficult thing for the Iraqi forces, Kurdish forces and all the coalition members to deal with. It's going to be a very risky endeavor, but it can be done, but it will take a lot of time and it's going to take really deliberate planning on the part of the Iraqi forces to do this right. BALDWIN: One more for you, colonel. 30 seconds. The significance

of, you know, now these Iraqi forces fighting side by side with the Kurdish Peshmerga.

LEIGHTON: This shows a capacity to really unify Iraq. If the administration of Haider al-Abadi, the Iraqi prime minister, capitalizes on this, they could come out of this with a very unified country, much more than it was just a few years ago.

BALDWIN: Way across the world is Iraq, so significant what is happening in Mosul. Colonel Leighton, thank you so: I appreciate all of you as well. I'm Brooke Baldwin here in New York. Watching and waiting for the president of the United States speaking in Ohio, stumping for Hillary Clinton. Stay right here. "The Lead" with Jake Tapper is next.