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Clinton Campaign Doubling Ad Spending in Final Days; Iraqi Troops Inside Mosul; Divisions and Unrest at FBI; Chicago Cubs Break the Curse, Win World Series. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired November 03, 2016 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:31:06] CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me.

Hillary Clinton's campaign is more than doubling its ad spending in the final days leading up to the election. The campaign pouring an additional $18 million into advertising as polls show Clinton and Donald Trump locked in a tight race across several battleground states. The RNC is also getting into the game. It's putting up nearly $3 million in its first ad buy in support of Mr. Trump. But are these massive ad buys, well, do they pay off at all? Let's talk about that.

I'm joined by Vanderbilt political science professor and negative ad expert John Greer.

Welcome.

JOHN GEER, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY: Thank you for having me.

COSTELLO: Thanks for being here.

So, you are an expert on these kinds of ads. And we've asked you to pick the most and least effective of the season.

GEER: Right.

COSTELLO: And you chose the Clinton ad "Mirrors" as one of the most effective. Let's watch part of it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I'm Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I'd look her right in that fat, ugly face of hers. She's a slob. She ate like a pig. A person who's flat chested is very hard to be a ten. Does she have a good body? No. She has a fat --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: So, John, why is this ad effective?

GEER: Well, it's using Donald Trump's only words against him and it's playing to a theme about -- about young girls, and about the treatment of women. And so it resonates with people. And the basic reason it works is because it's not exaggerating. It's, in fact, troublingly so the truth.

COSTELLO: OK, so on the Trump side there's an ad spotlighting Hillary Clinton's deplorables comment. Let's watch.

GEER: Right.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Speaking to wealthy donors, Hillary Clinton called tens of millions of Americans deplorable.

CLINTON: You could put half of Trump's supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. The racist, sexist, homophobic --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: So -- so, John, why is this ad effective?

GEER: For the same reasons the other one was. Hillary Clinton did not, you know, do herself any favors with that comment about the deplorables, and the Trump campaign appropriately used it against it.

COSTELLO: OK, so I'm getting -- I'm detecting a theme here. So if you use the candidate's own words against them, that's the most effective kind of political ad?

GEER: Right. I mean and these -- this is why negative ads are important because there providing factual information, they're showing reasons that you might not want to vote for Trump or you might not want to vote for Hillary Clinton. This is information the public needs to know. And we happen to have two very unpopular candidates, so we're going to -- can expect a lot of negative ads and for those negative ads on average to be pretty effective if they tell the truth and hit on salient (ph) themes.

COSTELLO: OK, so now for the ads that weren't so effective. The Trump campaign tried to counter criticism about Trump's experience and temperament with an ad called "Speak."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's a movement, not a campaign. Its leader, Donald Trump, builder, businessman, success. Doing what others called impossible. Donald Trump's priority? You. Dreaming big. Building bigger. United for family, jobs, country. Defined by freedom. Standing together. Pushing ahead. Leaving the past behind. Changing our future. Together, we'll make America great again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: So, John, this is such an uplifting ad. Why isn't it effective?

GEER: Well, because the problem is, it's headed -- it's basically going into some serious cross winds. That is that Donald Trump is not perceived by the American public to be any of those things. He has very high unfavorables. And this ad is trying to paint a picture that's just not consistent with the evidence. And so, as a result, it backfires. And that's among the reasons why we have so many negative ads in this campaign because both candidates are unpopular.

COSTELLO: Interesting. OK, so here's one Clinton ad that didn't work. This was by a pro-Clinton PAC and the ad is called "Speak" and it also uses Trump's own words against him. Watch.

[09:35:00] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: You know, you could see there was blood coming out of her eyes. Blood coming out of her, wherever.

Does she have a good body? No. Does she have a fat ass? Absolutely.

Do you like girls that are 5'1". They come up to you, they're where?

If Ivanka weren't my daughter, perhaps I'd be dating her.

I view a person who is flat chested is --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: OK, so the "Mirrors" ad worked, so why wouldn't this one?

GEER: Well, this is really an interesting example because it is very similar theme to "Mirrors," but it's presented in a different way and I don't think that it comes across effectively. So it isn't just the message, it's the messenger that matters. And in this case, that ad didn't work very well.

And I think on average, a lot of the third party ads aren't very good because they don't have direct contact with the candidates by law. And so the candidate ads themselves, they're directly tied to the campaign. They know the kind of themes they want to talk about. And so I think this is a really great example, but it isn't just the message, as I said. It's also the way the message is presented.

COSTELLO: So in these last five days leading up to the election, Hillary Clinton especially, her camp is releasing a barrage of ads in battleground states. And I would suspect most of them are negative. Is that a good strategy for her since the polls have tightened?

GEER: I think it's -- yes, I think it is a good strategy. I mean, everybody believes that all these ads make a difference. And if you air them in the battleground states, it should be able to turn some of -- some voters towards Clinton. The problem is that it's a four to one edge for Clinton right now in spending. That should make a difference. But this campaign has upended so much of conventional wisdom that maybe in fact that won't be the case. Maybe Trump's strategy of just trying to get free media coverage will carry the day. But Clinton has the money. These states are close. It's a good

investment. And it's probably not the time to air positive messages because both candidates are unpopular. So keep reminding voters about why the other side is so bad and hopefully you'll get enough votes to carry an election.

COSTELLO: All right, John Geer, thank you so much for being with me this morning.

GEER: Thank you.

COSTELLO: It all comes down to Tuesday. Election Day 2016. We'll have all-day coverage right here on CNN.

And protesters and police clash outside of a Louisiana senate debate featuring Ku Klux Klan member David Duke. Protests outside the venue, an historically black college, turned rowdy as demonstrators tried to force their way inside, prompting police to begin pepper spraying students.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (INAUDIBLE) the door open and -- they -- they pepper -- they pepper sprayed us.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: For no reason. She was just standing there.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They started releasing pepper spray. They sprayed a girl directly in the face with it. I was covered on my shirt, my arms, my face. There was pepper spraying (INAUDIBLE).

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: In all, six people were placed under arrest. The group that organized the protest had requested the school excluded Duke from attending the debate.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, intense fighting inside Mosul right now with Iraqi forces enter the ISIS stronghold.

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[09:42:02] COSTELLO: Two U.S. service members have been killed fighting terror in Afghanistan. Military officials say the service members died this morning from wounds they sustained during an operation to clear a Taliban position in the northwestern part of the country. Two other service members were also wounded in that same operation.

Iraqi forces are now inside Mosul for the first time in more than two years. Troops entering the ISIS stronghold just hours ago. CNN's Arwa Damon is with the forces. She's on the outskirts of the city.

Hello, Arwa.

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Carol. And it was the Iraqi army's ninth division that made that initial push

into Mosul. But the going has been quite tough, as would be expected. Clashes described as being very intense. They've only managed to move two blocks into Mosul itself. The advance being hindered by the resistance that ISIS is putting up by the fact that they have snipers positioned on rooftops.

And as we have seen in the past, quite often ISIS will position itself on homes that have civilians still inside them. Now, the Iraqis say that they are offering safe passage to civilians who want to flee from the areas that they have already cleared, but they're really just at the beginning of this operation to try to recapture the entire city with a population of 1.2 million people.

This coming just a day after ISIS leader al Baghdadi put out an audio message calling on his fighters to battle until the very end, to not allow the infidels to destroy the caliphate. But at the same time, we are still, regardless of that, seeing the Iraqi security forces pushing forward.

That being said, of course, all of this is resulting in what humanitarian organizations warn could potentially be a tsunami of people trying to flee. Already from the areas around Mosul that we were in, we've been seeing an exodus of thousands of families, young, old, women and children, all trying to get as far away from the fighting as they possibly can. Some women who we spoke to earlier today were telling us that they have relatives inside Mosul who attempted to flee, Carol, but they say ISIS fired at them and forced them back into their homes. All of this is part of the great concern that so many have over the fact that ISIS may attempt to use the population of Mosul, more than 1.2 million people, as human shields.

And, of course, the more we're talking to people who lived under ISIS' brutal rule, the more horrific the stories that we are hearing. One woman who we spoke to yesterday, she's a mother of ten. And she told us that ISIS enslaved her, kept her with them for a year and a half, raped her, and she gave birth to a baby boy. And she was saying that all she can do is pray that he never finds out who his father is, Carol.

COSTELLO: Arwa Damon reporting live from inside Iraq. Thank you.

[09:44:56] Still to come in the NEWSROOM, it's not just a problem for Clinton's campaign. That e-mail investigation apparently causing deep divisions within the FBI.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: Growing turmoil behind closed doors. Much like the presidential election has revealed deep divisions among Americans. CNN is learning of a similar rift within the FBI. The government agency shaken up in particular by the Clinton e-mail investigation.

Evan Perez has more for you from Washington.

Good morning. EVAN PEREZ, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol.

This has been a toxic year in politics, and apparently it's infected just about every part of American government, including the FBI, where we have, you know, for several months people have been arguing over --

COSTELLO: Hey, Evan -- Evan -- Evan, do you have your microphone on? I'm just --

[09:50:02] PEREZ: I do. I do, Carol.

COSTELLO: It -- well, it is.

PEREZ: Can you hear me?

COSTELLO: You just sound like -- now I can.

PEREZ: OK. Again, things are supposed to work the way they're supposed to, and then they don't.

But back to 2016 and the toxic year of politics, it turns out even inside the FBI there have been arguments over Clinton and, in particular, over the Clinton Foundation. Now, we know that, obviously, the FBI has been conducting this e-mail investigation that took over a year, but behind the scenes, there's also been several investigations that were ongoing in four different offices, Los Angeles, Little Rock, Washington and New York, into allegations of impropriety in the Clinton Foundation.

And behind the scenes, because some agents thought that things weren't moving fast enough, they -- they started believing conspiracies that perhaps politics were at play. And back here at headquarters in Washington, there was an effort to try to make sure that the -- the agents had what they thought they had, that they had the goods to bring some kind of investigation, to make -- to make it a full-blown investigation.

It turns out that a lot of what they had, Carol, was based on this book called "Clinton Cash." It was published by Peter Schweitzer. And he's now an editor at Breitbart. But a lot of -- a lot of the allegations in there have not been substantiated. The FBI headquarters here in Washington and Justice Department prosecutors thought that the agents needed to do a lot more work.

So, what you have is a lot of misunderstanding and a lot of innuendo as to what exactly was going on, Carol.

COSTELLO: All right, Evan Perez reporting live from Washington. Thank you.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, a rain delay, an extra inning, and in the end a dramatic comeback. The Cubs finally putting an end to their 108-year-old curse. Andy Scholes live with more on their historic win.

ANDY SCHOLES, CNN SPORTS: Hey, Carol, the Cubs no longer "loveable losers." They're now finally champions. We'll take you inside their clubhouse celebration when NEWSROOM continues.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:56:10] COSTELLO: The curse is broken. The Chicago Cubs are World Series champions for the first time in a lifetime, ending the longest championship drought in baseball history in a dramatic game seven victory over the Cleveland Indians.

Andy Scholes live in Cleveland.

And I really wanted the Indians to win. That's all I'm going to say.

Hi, Andy.

SCHOLES: Hey, good morning, Carol.

COSTELLO: It was so crushing.

SCHOLES: Yes, it's a gloomy day -- it's a gloomy day in Cleveland, fittingly. It was pouring down rain earlier. I said they are Cleveland tears because now they have the longest drought in all of baseball, 69 years without a World Series title. But what a game we saw last night. It's going to go down as one of the greatest ever in the history of the World Series. The emotion for both fan bases throughout the game, really enough to last a lifetime.

I'll show you how it all went down at the end. The bottom of the eighth inning, Rajai Davis sent the crowd here at Progressive Field into a frenzy as he hit a two-run home run to left. It actually bounced off the camera there in left field. Check out LeBron James. He was in the stands. He was pumped that this game was now tied. The game would go to extra innings. And after a short rain delay, Cubs left- field Zobrist coming through in the clutch with the RBI double in the tenth inning. He's your World Series MVP. And Bill Murray weeps as his Cubs win in an absolute thriller 8-7 to end their 108 year World Series drought.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KRIS BRYANT, CUBS THIRD BASEMAN: This is what you dream for as a kid. And I'm 24 years old. I'm the luckiest guy on the planet.

JAKE ARRIETA, CUBS PITCHER: I feel like a wet dog, you know? I -- everybody stinks in here. I know I do. It's sweat, champagne, beer, you know.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But it's fun.

ARRIETA: It's fun. It stinks, like you're supposed to --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It definitely stinks.

How excited are you to get back to Chicago to celebrate with the fans?

THEO EPSTEIN, CUBS PRESIDENT OF BASEBALL OPERATIONS: I can't wait. (INAUDIBLE). I'm going on a bender. (END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHOLES: The Cubs GM, Theo Epstein, going on a bender.

And I'll tell you what, Carol, check out the scene last night around Wrigley Field when the Cubs clinched their first World Series in 108 years. The place went absolutely nuts. I'm guessing a lot of these fans going on a bender after last night and maybe some actually hung around this -- earlier this morning when the Cubs returned to Wrigley Field with the championship trophy in tow. You can check out Anthony Rizzo getting off the bus with that trophy. What a scene. Who would have thought, the Cubs, 2016 World Series champions.

And, Carol, I'll tell you what, that clubhouse champagne party, so much fun. I've been in a couple of those, but I had never seen this many champagne bottles, ever. And I'll tell you what, standing next to Theo Epstein in a champagne celebration, not a great idea. He was getting peppered left and right. I was trying to dodge it. Not very successful. (INAUDIBLE).

COSTELLO: I know. Why weren't they wearing goggles? Usually everybody's wearing goggles so the champagne won't get in their eyes.

SCHOLES: Yes, a bunch of the players were, but Theo Epstein, he was just -- he was rocking it with no goggles. He was having a blast.

COSTELLO: You know, the unsung hero is Joe Maddon. I mean what an amazing manager. Joe -- it's just -- we really wanted him to come to the Detroit Tigers, but, no. But I am happy for the Chicago Cubs --

SCHOLES: Everybody did. Everybody wanted him, at least.

COSTELLO: I know. I know.

SCHOLES: Yes.

COSTELLO: Hey, one more word about being inside that locker room for the celebration. What was that like?

SCHOLES: It was awesome, Carol, I mean just the emotion from all of the players. They were so happy with what they had just accomplished and in the game they just accomplished. I mean the ups and downs. They were up in that game, then it was tied, it looked like it could go the other way. And like I said, I've been in a few of those. I've never seen the players celebrating as hard as they were last night. And I'm sure that celebration is going to continue once they get back to Chicago and they schedule the big celebration championship parade.

COSTELLO: Yes. Yes. We were looking at the people celebrating in the bar in Chicago. I'm sure they've been on a bender for the last several weeks.

[10:00:06] Andy Scholes, thanks so much.

The next hour of CNN NEWSROOM starts now.

SCHOLES: All right.