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Final days: Tight race, Clinton Still Ahead; Cruz Puts Past Behind Him, Stumps for Trump; Iraqi troops now inside ISIS stronghold. Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired November 03, 2016 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[10:00:16]

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: We were looking at the people celebrating in the bar in Chicago. I'm sure they have been on a bender for the last several weeks. Andy Scholes thanks so much.

The next hour of CNN "NEWSROOM" starts now.

And good morning, I'm Carol Costello, thank you so much for joining me. The presidential race tightens as time runs out. With just five days to go, Trump and Clinton using very different tactics.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Stay on point, Donald. Stay on point. No side tracks, Donald. Nice and easy.

HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Right now across country, people are doing just that. They are rejecting his dark and divisive vision.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: They do share one goal, though. Lock in those battleground states. Both candidates trying to clinch critical votes in places like North Carolina today. And the Clinton campaign rolling out major surrogates again, making crucial stops in places like Florida and Ohio. Donald Trump is looking to gin up support with a boost from his own kids in a rare stump speech from his wife, Melania. We are covering all the angles with our team of political reporters. But let's start with Jason Carroll. He's in Jacksonville, Florida. Good morning.

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And good morning to you, Carol. You know, this is a state that this candidate, this campaign, must win. That's why we saw them making multiple stops here in Florida yesterday, another stop here today. This is a very tight race here in the state of Florida. And the campaign is encouraged by some of these numbers. Take a look at on poll, the CNN Poll of Polls, shows that it's basically a dead heat here in the state. Clinton at 45 percent, Trump at 45 percent as well.

So, they know they've got to hit these battleground states hard. They also know that they have to stay on message. This is something that Donald Trump publicly reminded himself of yesterday telling the audience he's got to stay cool and stay on point.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We have got to be nice and cool, nice and cool, right? Stay on point, Donald. Stay on point. No side tracks, Donald. Nice and easy. Nice. Because I've been watching Hillary the last few days, she's totally unhinged. We don't want any of that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARROLL: Donald Trump has had some problems, actually trying to stay on message throughout the campaigns, at times stepping on his own message. Now that we are in the final stretch, the campaign wants to see Donald Trump stay focused on the issues. Another thing they have to do, Carol, is make inroads into some of these blue states. They're going to have to flip a blue state in order to get to that magical number of 270.

That's why you're going to see folks like Mike Pence and Ted Cruz for the first time out campaigning for the top of the ticket in states like Michigan. They will also be in Iowa. Melania Trump for her part, she will be doing her part for the first time in the state of Pennsylvania, campaigning later today. Trump says he will be watching from North Carolina. He's going to be making two stops in North Carolina later. Carol?

COSTELLO: All right, Jason Carroll reporting live from Jacksonville. Thank you. Chelsea Clinton, kicking off a busy day for the campaign and she's not the only one, major surrogates for Clinton, fanning out across the country.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: All of you are uniquely qualified to make sure this guy who is uniquely unqualified does not become president. You just got to vote. You just got to vote.

CHELSEA CLINTON, HILLARY CLINTON'S DAUGHTER: Donald Trump consumes so much oxygen with what he is saying and in how he is demeaning huge swaths of our country.

BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES: Our future is bright. But we can't get there if we choose anger over answers and if we choose fantasy over facts.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: So, our senior Washington correspondent Joe Johns has more on the Clinton campaign. Good morning.

JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol. Hillary Clinton's closing argument, to get out the vote in battleground states sounding much more somber than her campaign would have preferred. Though they say they are hoping to get back to talking about the candidate's vision for the country before it's all over. She is expected to have two stops in North Carolina today, wrapping up tonight with an event featuring Pharrell Williams and her opponent in the primaries, Bernie Sanders. Her top surrogates fanning out across the country including of course the surrogate in chief, President Obama. You just saw there, he was in North Carolina on Wednesday. He's going to be in Miami today. And as you listen to what the surrogates are saying, it's pretty clear they are pushing to try to get out the vote. Today, Hillary Clinton's running mate Tim Kaine is in Arizona. Bill Clinton is in Las Vegas. And Chelsea Clinton is in Wisconsin. Carol?

COSTELLO: All right, Joe Johns reporting live for us this morning, thank you. So let's talk about Senator Ted Cruz. Senator Ted Cruz is with him, the man who once called Donald Trump a pathological liar and serial philanderer, will hit the trail for Trump. That breakfast meeting back in July where Mr. Cruz refused to endorse Trump for insulting his wife and his father, you know this one

[10:05:16] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ, (R) TEXAS: I don't get angry often. But you mess with my wife. You mess with my kids. That will do it every time. Donald, you are a sniveling coward. Leave Heidi the hell alone.

I'm not in the habit of supporting people who attack my wife and attack my father.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Oh, my, how things have changed. All is forgiven, apparently. Cruz will not only vote for Mr. Trump. But he will also campaign for him, actively campaign for him today in the state of Iowa. So let's talk about that and more. With me now, Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Patricia Murphy, columnist for "The Daily Beast" and "Roll Call." Welcome to both of you.

PATRICIA MURPHY, COLUMNIST "THE DAILY BEAST" AND "ROLL CALL": Good morning.

LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA CENTER FOR POLITICS: Thanks.

COSTELLO: OK. So, just to further refresh our memories, Cruz's anger was sparked by a -- re-tweet from Mr. Trump, one that compared the looks of the two candidates' wives. Remember that? In an earlier tweet Trump threatened to "spill the beans on Heidi Cruz," whatever that meant. And of course, Mr. Trump also, seemingly accused Mr. Cruz's father of taking part in JFK's assassination. So Larry, this is quite an about-face on Mr. Cruz's part.

SABATO: Well, that's a nice way to put it, Carol. You know, politicians are known for turning on a dime but this one has got to go into the hall of fame. What it's about, obviously, is that Cruz still has presidential ambitions. He hopes to run in the future, 2020, if Trump loses, and it's going to be very difficult for any candidate to do so, who has held out on Trump, who didn't support the Republican nominee in 2016, and there are people in and out of Texas in the Republican Party who are trying to produce a strong challenge to Cruz when he runs for re-election to his senate seat in 2018.

So Cruz has lots of political motives to do this. But I just have to add one thing, Carol. You know, you studied the 1960s enough to know this. There was no greater crime really in the 20th century than the assassination of President Kennedy. And there is no question that Donald Trump essentially accused his father of having been involved in the assassination of President Kennedy. To forgive something like that when Trump, to the best of my knowledge, has never apologized or taken that back in any way, shape or form, is stunning.

COSTELLO: And plus, Patricia, the Republicans always call themselves, you know, they are way into family values. -- It just seems that Sen. Cruz, like, maybe sold out his wife and dad because he wants to continue his political career.

MURPHY: Yes, with Ted Cruz, there's kind of family and there's values and it seems like in this decision, the value is getting re-elected and -- reserving the right to run for president in the future. After Ted Cruz decided not to endorse Donald Trump at the Republican convention and that convention hall went absolutely bananas. And Heidi Cruz had to be escorted out by security.

Ted Cruz's own approval ratings among Republicans cratered from about 60 percent to 35 percent among Republicans. I think it was a big risk for him. I don't think he anticipated the fallout of it and the backlash. And he's been trying to peddle his way back into Republicans' good graces ever since. But I don't think that laying down this moral obligation not to support a person and then reversing it. And never even explaining really why it's now OK that Donald Trump accused your dad of killing JFK. He's never really squared that circle. And I think it will continue to be a real significant problem for him in the future, with Republicans and anybody else who might be voting for him.

COSTELLO: So, Larry, does this mean that Republicans are coming home, as Mike Pence wants them to, because Sen. Mitch McConnell, he's been laying low, right?

But just yesterday, he spoke out in favor of Trump. Reportedly telling Kentucky voters, "We need a new president, Donald Trump. We need Donald Trump to be the most powerful Republican in America and we must support him."

So is that a sign that Republicans are coming home?

SABATO: Well, Mitch McConnell is from Kentucky. And Kentucky will very predictably vote overwhelmingly for Trump. So, that's part of the calculation for Mitch McConnell. But yes, Republicans are coming home. It's a normal process. You have reluctant partisans. They are called reluctant partisans, for whatever reason they don't like the nominee and they tend to come home right at the end because partisan fervor intensifies in the final days of a campaign. And never has it been more true, that there are loads of Republicans who don't like Donald Trump. But at the end of the campaign, they also focus on the opponent and they don't like Donald Trump but they hate Hillary Clinton. Therefore, they reluctantly vote for Donald Trump. And that is the source of the tightening of the

[10:10:16] polls. It isn't so much that Clinton has dropped. It is more that Trump has consolidated that party base.

COSTELLO: Interesting. OK. So, in light of what you just said, Larry, what Mr. Trump said on the campaign trail about, you know, sticking to the script, kind of makes sense. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: And this guy is a liar.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: OK. So, anyway, let me paraphrase as much as I can remember. But Patricia, he said that he's going to stay on message. And he was sort of like, giving advice to himself at a rally.

MURPHY: I could almost hear Kellyanne Conway's voice saying don't go off script, Donald. Don't do it. Because you know that's what she's been saying to him for the last several weeks and whenever -- Donald Trump stays on script, his numbers improve. And particularly when you have so much ammunition against Hillary Clinton as the Trump campaign does, it has driven Republicans absolutely crazy when Donald Trump would go off on some weird tangent about a woman or somebody he did or didn't attack. He was his own worst enemy.

And so he had certainly getting this kind of advice from Kellyanne Conway and from other Republicans. Even Mitch McConnell said, just get on script. Just stay on the prompter. He's doing it and it's working for him. But I think, we all know that the next five, six days are going to be an absolute eternity for anybody watching Donald Trump and having his eyes wander off the prompter and where is he going. He could still really blow it wide open for himself.

COSTELLO: OK. So Larry, Patricia, stick around because we have much more to come. Coming up in the "NEWSROOM," the polls are tightening. We'll take a deep dive to tell you -- what they really mean, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:15:50] COSTELLO: The countdown is on, the race tighter than ever. New polls show Donald Trump, gaining on Hillary Clinton in the battleground states, even overtaking her in one poll. Now, Trump's team, hopes that spells out to a path to 270 Electoral College votes and the White House. CNN politics executive editor Mark Preston is following the numbers for us. Fill us in, Mark.

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Hey, Carol. No doubt. Look, they are fanned out across the country. And I say, they, I mean the candidates and their surrogates. But let's look at three specific states this morning.

Let's first look at Colorado, a state that we haven't talked a whole lot about until recently. Look at this poll that has come out right now from the University of Denver. It is all tied up according to this poll right now. Interestingly enough, we are going to see Bill Clinton in Colorado for three events on Friday. This is a blue state but appears to be tightening up.

Let's move up to the east coast. Let's look up to New Hampshire right now. Another state that had been blue but look at that Donald Trump has a one-point lead within the margin of error right now in New Hampshire. But yet still a race that had been tightening up there. Ivanka Trump, perhaps Donald Trump's best surrogate on the campaign trail, will be there for an event today.

And then, let's go all the way down to Florida, the all-important state of Florida. Let's take a look at these new numbers, Hillary Clinton, up two, on Donald Trump in the state of Florida. We know Barack Obama has two events there today. Donald Trump is there today. We also know Barack Obama is going to go back on Sunday, Carol.

So, while we see a bit of a lead , right there for Hillary Clinton , in Florida, let's just say that it's all tied up there as well and as well as it's tightening up in New Hampshire. And guess what? We are not even talking about all the other states that are very competitive, North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada and all the others. Carol?

COSTELLO: Oh, we are just about going to talk about Nevada. Thank you, Mark Preston. So, let's focus on that battleground state of Nevada. The latest CNN/ORC poll shows Trump up by six points. That's a switch from a CNN poll taken just three weeks ago that showed Clinton up four. So, what does it mean? Back with me Larry Sabato and Patricia Murphy. Patricia, how are you reading the polls this morning?

MURPHY: I am scratching my head with a lot of these Nevada poll is a little bit out of whack. That's a huge swing from what we saw just a couple days ago in Nevada. However, I think this is what most people have expected in a generic race. I think, we all generically thought that this race would come down to a handful of states. And that those states would be extremely, extremely close just based on everything that we have seen in past presidential elections. I don't know that I thought that it would be this close with these two candidates.

And I think that that is coming as a surprise to a lot of people and I think that the revelations about Hillary Clinton have not helped her. It's not that it has changed people's minds about her with what Director Comey came out about her and the investigation that they may or may not still be doing. But I think, it has put her on defense and Hillary Clinton has not been able to make the positive affirmative declaration that she wanted to be making to voters. She's back on defense now. You can feel her momentum a little bit stalled. And so I think it's given Donald Trump a big opening and he's been very smart to stay on script, hit her hard and keep his own message positive.

COSTELLO: Well, Larry, Democrats might say this poll really means nothing because so many Democrats have already voted in early voting. And I wanted our viewers to take a look. In Clark County, for example, that's where Las Vegas is located, and where more than two- thirds of Nevada's active registered voters live, Democrats cast 48,000 more votes that Republicans in early voting so far. So Larry, does that negate Trump's lead in this latest poll?

SABATO: Well, it's a very big factor. And I don't want to diss CNN while being on CNN but I've got to tell you, that poll is an outlier. I don't believe it. I think the facts on the ground contradict it. And I would cite the number one expert on Nevada politics, Jon Ralston, who has eviscerated that survey. He's gone through the details, both the percentage of Latinos and the fact that it's got Trump up in the most heavily Democratic county, Clark County. It's absurd. It's ridiculous.

So get rid of that one. And as far as the Denver post poll is concerned, you always have to look at when a poll is taken. You know when that poll was taken? Right after Director Comey of the FBI dropped that bombshell and damaged the Clinton candidacy tremendously.

[10:20:16] Well, we have seen since that Friday and Saturday, a recovery by Clinton in many states and I think it has occurred probably in Colorado as well. Big picture, Clinton is still ahead. You can argue whether it's two points or three points or four points, but she's ahead nationally and she is ahead in enough battleground states to get her over 270. Could it change by Tuesday? Anything could happen. But you would rather be Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump.

COSTELLO: OK. So, let's focus on New Hampshire now. Because WBUR did a poll and it shows Trump and Clinton now, neck and neck. Hillary Clinton did have a big lead there once. The poll also shows 54 percent of people in New Hampshire have read a great deal about Clinton's e-mail issues. So, in light of what Larry said, Patricia, is this really an ominous sign for Mrs. Clinton?

MURPHY: Well, I don't know that it's ominous. I mean, again, this is a state that was going to be tight and have 54 percent of people read a lot about that e-mail scandal, I would have expected it to be higher. I know 54 percent of people have read about Donald Trump's groping episodes or alleged groping episodes.

So, I think people at this point, though, are getting into their corners. I think most people have made their decisions to the extent that they haven't. It's a choice for them between the lesser of two evils and once we are starting to get into polling this close to Election Day, I think it's very hard to put any stock into it, unless you are seeing the actual internal polling from some of these candidates.

And then you have to start looking at what do these people's ground games look like. In Nevada in particular, the Democratic ground game out there that's been laid into place by Harry Reid over decades is incredible. So, if Donald Trump is able to win out there, he will have really outperformed anybody's best expectations. So, the Clinton ground game is better. The momentum is a little stalled for her. And so I think, we all just have to wait until Election Day at this point. The polls, I think, we just have to all take with a grain of salt.

COSTELLO: OK. Larry Sabato, Patricia Murphy, thanks to both of you.

Coming up in the "NEWSROOM," intense fighting inside Mosul right now with Iraqi forces, enter the ISIS stronghold.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:26:52] COSTELLO: And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you for joining me. A U.S. led airstrike, hammering ISIS right now as Iraqi forces enter Mosul for the first time in two years, an intense battle now under way. CNN's Arwa Damon, she is with forces on the outskirts of the city. Hi, Arwa.

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Carol. And those forces that entered the Intisar neighborhood from the Iraqi army's ninth division, they have only managed to go about two blocks, coming across a number of car bombs that were pre-positioned by ISIS as well as snipers on rooftops. All of these expected as ISIS is believed to put up quite the fight, trying to keep its grip on the City of Mosul and then coupled with all of that, you also have the growing humanitarian crisis and concern. We are already beginning to see people fleeing from the fighting on the outskirts of the city itself. And earlier today, we spoke to a number of them.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAMON: Her husband has gone to get their daughter, who is in an area where there's still a bit of clashes. She says it's very hard to describe her feelings right now. We're really happy. They feel as if they kind of have new life that has been breathed into them, a new soul.

This is little Mariam. She was crying. She was crying and she was praying thank God, we've been --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DAMON: Others who we spoke to, Carol, said that they had actually managed to get a hold of their relatives inside Mosul who tried to flee the city but they say ISIS stopped them by shooting at them and forcing them back into their homes. And the real outpour of civilians has not even yet begun, the battle for the city itself, still very much in its initial stages with eight organizations, warning of a humanitarian tsunami. Carol?

COSTELLO: All right, Arwa Damon reporting live near Mosul, Iraq.

With five days to go until Election Day, we want to focus on the issues. And this morning, we will focus on the fight against ISIS. Mosul is part of the American strategy to lessen ISIS's strength and rid Iraq of the terrorist group. So where do the candidates stand?

Donald Trump tweeted this on October 23rd. "The attack on Mosul is turning out to be a total disaster. We gave them months of notice. U.S. is looking so dumb. Vote Trump and win again." Hillary Clinton fired back that Trump was basically declaring defeat before the battle even started. So let's talk about this. With me now is Naveed Jamali, a Navy Intelligence officer and fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Center. He supports Hillary Clinton. And Gary Bernsten is a former CIA officer and national security surrogate for Donald Trump. Welcome to both of you.

GARY BERNSTEN, FORMER CIA OFFICER: Thank you.

COSTELLO: It is nice to have you here. So, Gary, I want to start with you.