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QUEST MEANS BUSINESS
New Early Voting Data Show Tight Florida Race; Chicago Cubs Break 108-Year Old Curse; UK Court: Parliament Must Approve Brexit Launch; U.S. States Release New Early Voting Numbers; CNN Poll of Polls Shows Clinton Leading Trump; Nervous Investors Push Stocks Lower on Wall Street; Randgold CEO; Both Candidates Good for Gold Price; Iraqi Forces Now Fighting Inside Mosul; Trump Promises to Bring Jobs Back to U.S.; Final U.S. Jobs Report Before Election Due Friday. Aired 5-6p ET
Aired November 3, 2016 - 17:00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[17:00:00] RICHARD QUEST, CNN ANCHOR: Market starting up, then went down, New York Stock Exchange and staff and government services ringing the
closing bell. If they can't give us a good gavel at the end of trading, by the way all of this was an hour ago because of the time difference. Well,
I don't know quite what to say about that. I'm a little overcome. On Thursday, November the 3rd.
Tonight, tear up the Brexit time table. The U.K. court has dealt a huge blow to the British government. New numbers on early voting in the U.S.,
and it's a razor thin lead for the Republicans in Florida. And the ultimate turnaround story, one baseball executive breaks a legendary curse
and does so for the second time. I'm Richard Quest, live in New York, and I mean business.
Good evening, a major roadblock has been put in the way of Britain's road out of the European Union. After the U.K. high court ruled that
Westminster, Parliament, must have a say before the government can begin formal separation negotiations. That is one of the most momentum high
court decisions in decades, and in some view, it's been a major blow to Prime Minister Theresa May. The government has agreed to take it to the
Supreme Court. The details of what the high court said and some of the ramifications, from CNN's Diana Magnay in London.
DIANA MAGNAY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Brexit means Brexit has always been Prime Minister Theresa May's message. It's never been a
question of if, but when and how. The high court ruling that Parliament must be consulted before May officially starts the process certainly goes
against her government's plan. It may also test her promise that Article 50 of the EU Lisbon Treaty will be triggered by the end of March.
Effectively the first step towards Brexit. The legal challenge came from an unlikely source. An investment manager and a hairdresser led a crowd
funded campaign against the might of the British government.
GINA MILLER, CLAIMANT, PEOPLE'S CHALLENGE: The result today is about all of us, not about me or my team, it's about our United Kingdom and all of
our futures. It's not about how anyone voted. Every one of us voted for the best country and the best future. This case was about process, not
MAGNAY: The People's Challenge Group had always insisted they were not arguing against Brexit.
DAVID GREENE, SOLICITOR FOR CLAIMANT DEIR DOS SANTOS: I have never challenged the results of the referendum. In fact, I voted for Brexit in
the referendum for the sole reason that I wanted power to be returned from Europe to the British Parliament. But I did not think it was right for the
government then just to bypass Parliament and try to take away my legal rights without consulting Parliament first.
MAGNAY: The government says they plan to appeal the high court ruling and will likely meet the peoples challenge again next month in the Supreme
Court. If it doesn't overturn the judgment Parliament will have to be consulted before triggering Article 50. That process will involve several
steps of debate and voting. And the government will hope that ultimately a majority of MPs and Lords respect the results of June's public vote.
LIAM FOX, UK SECRETARY OF STATE FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE: Mr. Speaker, the government is disappointed by the court's judgment. The country voted to
leave the European Union in a referendum approved by act of Parliament. The government is determined to respect the result of the referendum. This
judgment raises important and complex matters of law and it's right that we consider it carefully before deciding how to proceed.
MAGNAY (on camera): Theresa May could face the daunting challenge of battling Brussels over trade, whilst also battling Parliamentarians back
home. Now some conservative MPs are renewing calling for an early election. It's something that Theresa May has always resisted. But if she
can't get anything through the House without it, she may think again. Diana Magnay, CNN, London.
QUEST: Now under British law, the case was brought in her official capacity between Her Majesty, the Queen on behalf of the Claimants.
Obviously, the Queen herself wasn't personally involved. It's in the crown, if you like. And the Brexit Secretary, David Davis, who
represented, of course, all the various government ministers that will be involved in it. And the result throughs the Prime Minister's Brexit
schedule deeply into question.
[17:05:00] This is how she'd hoped the process would go. She'd hoped that the world prerogative would give the Prime Minister the power to make a
decision without Parliament. That she would be able to invoke Article 50 and there would be dissociation's and the U.K. would lead the European
Union after two years or so.
However, she hopes to stick to this but now there will be, because of the court case, there has to be a Parliamentary debate, which of course could
go one way or the other. And we really don't know what form that would take and when the result of that Parliamentary vote is taken, what that
would mean for the implication of Article 50. Remember, Article 50 is the article is the bit that sets out the rules for how Britain formally leaves
the European Union.
So, what was already an extremely complicated series of steps full of uncertainty, has become even more uncertain as it moves forward. With a
possibility of Deutsche Bank predicting there would be an addition to the election schedule of the general election which may be the Prime Minister
would give her a bigger Parliamentary majority.
Now we talked about the court case, well, the Queen, the Crown, in her official capacity, was actually representing people like Gina Miller, the
lead claimant or plaintiff. She spoke to me a short time ago. And she made it clear, for her, as you heard her say, it's about process and
principle, not politics.
MILLER: The media, the politicians are saying it's to do with Brexit and obviously, there's an element of it that has to do with Brexit, but it's
far more fundamental than that. It is about the British constitution, the fact that we have a Parliamentary democracy, and what Mrs. May was saying
was to trigger Article 50 to leave the EU. She could use this ancient secretive power called the Royal Prerogative. Its name itself has no place
really in modern politics. But by doing so, she could bypass Parliament. So, it would be her and a handful of her MPs that could decide what laws
and what rights could be made in the country. And to my mind and my team's mind, it would be a dangerous precedent that would take us back to almost
19th century politics.
QUEST: There was one problem in the case. I can see the matter of principle that you're talking about in terms of the Crown prerogative. But
on this case, her decision to go ahead was backed by a referendum. And clearly Parliament should not or could not or would not frustrate the will
of the people who had just expressed it.
MILLER: But the referendum was advisory. And one of the problems is that it's very squarely at the door of the politicians, is that they should
never have promised that on the referendum outcome they would be able to just trigger Article 50. There's a legal process and what I was arguing
and have argued and have won the argument, is that you have to follow that legal process. You have to have a vote, a debate in an active Parliament
to reverse it.
QUEST: Well, yes, you've won the argument, but as the high court points out, it was that you won handsomely in that respect, you won because a
narrow definition in the sense of the European Communities Act, which has to be overturned and therefore the executive cannot just unilaterally
overturn an act of Parliament through its actions. But on the core issue, though, of a referendum and Brexit, well, the court said it wasn't having
anything to do with that.
Well, exactly. It has nothing to do with that. My case was not about the referendum and it wasn't about Brexit. My case was very much about can a
government overrule Parliament. Can it avoid scrutiny? Is that the sort of parliament we want going forward?
QUEST: Let's be clear, just so we've got cards on the table. Are you a Remainer or a Brexiteer?
MILLER: I was a Remainer. But I managed to fall out with both sides. Because I thought the referendum was to binary. I was very much for
remain, reform, and review. But as you said, people have voted, the referendum was for out, and we need to move on, but it is about how we move
QUEST: The law -- forgive my old terminology, the Law Lords, now the Supreme Court, will have the final ruling on this. There's one thing we
can both agree on, it's an unholy mess tonight. The uncertainties got worse.
MILLER: It's created legal certainty. Because we now know there has to be a vote, a debate, and an act of Parliament. And we know that a government
cannot behave like a rogue government. They have to be open to scrutiny by Parliament. So actually, we've created a huge amount of legal certainty as
we move forward.
[17:10:00] QUEST: Mark Carney wouldn't agree with the certainty. The court's decision push the pound sharply higher against the dollar. It hit
a four-week high on Thursday. It's still well off from June when it peaked at 1.48, down at 1.25. It also got an extra boost from the Bank of
England's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The bank's Governor, Mark Carney, says the court's ruling shows that there are volatile times
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARK CARNEY, GOVERNOR, BANK OF ENGLAND: It is an example of the uncertainty that will characterize this process. As I said to the previous
question, the negotiations themselves haven't even yet begun. There will be uncertainty. There will be volatility around those negotiations as they
proceed. And I would just view this as one of the symptoms -- or one example of that uncertainty.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Joining me now, Tom Newton Dunn, the political editor for Britain's largest selling newspaper, "The Sun," which had urged Britons to vote to
leave. Tom, whichever way we look at it, Gina Miller may say there's more certainty, but she's probably the only one who might think that, it's a bit
of a mess tonight, would you agree?
TOM NEWTON DUNN, POLITICAL EDITOR, THE SUN: It is an unmitigated giant mess. The sort of mess that only the British constitution and political
system is really capable of creating. Largely because we don't have many rules. We make it up as we go long. We been doing that for about 400
years. But sometimes when the wheels fall off, they do so spectacularly.
QUEST: The wheels are wobbling and may have come off. But what happens in this parliamentary intervention? Assume for our purposes of our
discussion, time, that the Supreme Court backs the high court decision. I know that's a big stretch perhaps. But let's assume for the purposes of a
moment that the Supreme Court agrees with the high court and upholds the decision. So, Parliament will be involved before Article 50 is invoked.
Do we have any idea what that involvement means?
DUNN: We do, actually. I had the great displeasure of having read the entire judgment, all 32 pages of legalese this afternoon. We learned quite
a lot from it. I think the first thing we've learned, it was an overwhelming judgment in favor of the claimants, in favor of those who say
Theresa May has to seek Parliament's permission to trigger Article 50. And there was really almost nothing in there for the British government to use.
The slam dunk was basically the argument that the claimants used, which was, whether you like it or not, Theresa May has no power to repeal British
law by triggering Article 50 and taking us out of the EU. Because it's British law which keeps us in the EU, and it's British law which has to be
So, for Teresa May to take us out of the EU, to even begin Article 50 talks, she has to pass an act in British law to begin the process. This
means, and this is where it really does get fiendishly complicated, a 1-9 act, for Teresa May would do, which she passed through the House of Commons
and then the House of Lords and it's done. However, MPs -- and it's a huge but -- MPs have full entitlements, if there's enough of them, and there is
a majority of them, to amend acts. They can slap on to the simple one line act, which is "we're going to leave the EU," pretty much anything they
want. Such as a desire that Britain stays within the single market, within the customs union, this thing that remainders or soft Brexiteers, as we
call them, were obsessed about doing. Such as will be if what she comes back with Brussels, sorry.
QUEST: Let me interrupt you. Because if they do try to frustrate in this one-line act? Or I think it will mushroom into more than that. Because
many MPs, perhaps most -- you'd know better than me -- were Remainers not Brexiteers. Is it likely they will try either to get a second referendum
or put something in there that frustrates Brexit, even if it means committing political suicide themselves?
DUNN: That in itself is the $64 million question. We don't know what it is that the vast majority of MPs who wanted to stay in the EU, 60 or 50 MPs
by my count, at least 450 wanted to stay in the EU. So, Theresa May has no majority for Brexit or even hard Brexit. So, this bunch, by the way, is
pretty disparate by themselves. They don't all agree what they want. They may have been remain. But some believe you should respect the will of the
people, some believe you shouldn't. Especially if their constituencies voted for remain, which is what most London constituencies did for example.
So, there is no coherence here. But the problem for Theresa May is, if there's a majority, which is 326 MPs, they can amend this one-line act in
any single way they want, including having a second referendum, which, of course, would mean even further mayhem.
QUEST: Going to keep you in business for a bit longer and keep you busy. Looking forward over the months ahead. Good to see you, sir.
DUNN: Sadly, so.
QUEST: Thank you for helping us understand the machinations tonight. We look forward to talking to you again. Tom Newton Dunn joining me from
[17:15:00] Now, from one side of the Atlantic to the other and the latest numbers, remember, polling doesn't officially get under way until next
Tuesday in the U.S. presidential election. But they have this change thing called early voting. And early voting means that perhaps up to 10 percent,
maybe 15 percent of the vote, will have been cast by next Tuesday. It's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS from New York.
QUEST: Republicans currently have a slight lead in Florida as the U.S. state releases early voting numbers. CNN's political executive editor,
Mark Preston, has those details.
MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Five days until election day, Richard, but already we've seen that nearly 31 million people have already
cast ballots in 38 states here in the U.S. But there are two states that I want to highlight specifically because they are very important in the race
to the White House. The first state is the state of Florida. We've seen a little more than 4.2 million people have already cast their ballots. But
let's see how the parties are doing in getting the vote out. If you look at these numbers right here, Republicans have a lead of about 16,000
ballots returned, which is good news. But it's even better news if you look at what happened in 2008 when Democrats had a 73,000-ballot advantage
at this same point. So, that's definitely disturbing now for the Democratic Party.
At the same time, I'd be remiss not to point out that 20 percent of the electorate in this year's election are either independent or they are
affiliated with another political party. Let's go deeper into why we think there's a bit of a drop-off. And we look at race demographics here. If we
look at these numbers here, African-Americans equate about 12.3 percent of the electorate, Hispanics, 14.3 percent. If we go a little bit deeper
though into 2008, which is the year with the most relevant information, the drop-off is about 3 percent in African-American votes. That's not good.
Because African-Americans overwhelmingly vote Democrat. If you're in the Democratic Party, this is concerning news for you.
However, the Hispanic vote right here, look at this increase right now, amongst Hispanic votes, in the raw vote alone, that equates to about
336,000 votes right now. So, while Democrats are doing well with Hispanics, they need to do better with African-Americans.
Let's go to the state of North Carolina. About two million people have cast votes so far in the state of North Carolina. What's the party
breakdown there? If you look at it right now, Democrats do have an advantage at this point by about 243,000 early ballots cast, which is good
news for them. However, if you go deeper into these numbers, you see at this same point in 2012, Democrats were in the lead by 307,000 ballots
cast. Certainly, concerning for Democrats in getting their voters to the polls.
[17:20:00] But let's go a little bit deeper and see where the numbers take us. If you look at the demographics here, African-Americans account for
about 23 percent of the ballots cast so far, Hispanics about 2 percent. We go a little bit deeper though in there and look at the drop-off. Again,
troublesome for Democrats when you look at this drop-off right here, that is about a 5 percent drop-off among African-American participation in the
early vote. A slight lead or push up for Hispanics over the past four years. As we're doing this right now we're calculating these numbers, the
early vote will continue here in the U.S. up to election day, Richard. Two states we'll continue to watch and talk more about, North Carolina, and
QUEST: Fascinating statistics. And new polls are showing Donald Trump starting to chip away at some of Hillary Clinton's safest places known as
the Clinton firewall. Donald Trump has edged ahead of her in New Hampshire, according to the WBUR poll. The same poll released in mid-
October had Clinton leading by three points. If Trump can claim New Hampshire and win all the other swing states, he does reach the magic 270
electoral college votes that we've been talking about all week. Our senior political analyst, David Gergen, has been White House advisor to for
presidents. What do you make of it?
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Richard, I wasn't in England for Brexit. I wasn't in the U.K. But this feels like the days leading up
to Brexit. It may not have the same result, but what you saw in Brexit was, the polls really started moving the other way in the last few days and
the unthinkable happened. And the polls have started to move Trump's way. I still think that Hillary Clinton's going to win, but it's getting really
close, and it's going very edgy. And the unthinkable conceivably could still happen. I think the chances are maybe 30 percent.
QUEST: So, what do you think about the possibility, because we saw it in one election before. We certainly saw it in the U.K. on a couple of
elections, that they've absolutely, the polls are wrong. The polls, either one way or the other. And he goes way ahead and gets it, or she just
basically landslides it.
GERGEN: Again, it's unknowable. If there's a bandwagon effect toward him and we're beginning to see some of that now, five days out, that could draw
out people to vote for him. It will mobilize people on the other side. The Clinton people know now, you've got to turn out every African-American
you can find and make sure they get there, because Barack Obama's numbers were so high in the African-American community. For her to have less of a
turn-out, could be dangerous for her. And the polls could have misread that.
QUEST: How much of this can be -- of this shift? Two weeks ago, everybody was saying how big will the landslide be and will she take the Senate and
the House? Now people are saying will she take the House, but the White House?
QUEST: And how much of this is a result of Director Comey and his announcement?
GERGEN: I think it's a serious piece of it. It's put a cloud over her head. I mean, it's the first candidate I can remember, a nominee of a
party who's had a criminal investigation under way on election day. A criminal investigation that could bring her in in some fashion. I think
there are other elements. In our health care system, when we nationalized that affect the health care system considerably. We have this national
healthcare system, but we had an announcement about ten days ago, there's going to be huge spikes in the premiums Americans pay in most states and
that's gotten people's attention. Because it's right out of their pocketbook.
There have been a series of things, but it's also true, Richard, that in this election, the person in the spotlight, the person who gets the most
attention goes down in the polls, not out. The more people see of one of the nominees, the less they like them. Now, we've got an incredible
election. Donald Trump has been the focus of most of the election, and it's hurt him. But now she's the focus.
QUEST: And we're seeing Donald Trump, you saw him yesterday --
GERGEN: Yes, he's trying to pull back a little bit.
QUEST: He's pulling back. And this argument, about what is the real Donald Trump. And he's talking out loud to himself. Therefore, Donald,
don't say this, be nice, Donald, don't rock the boat, Donald. Are we going to see more of that? Or do you think he unleashes? Himself?
GERGEN: The Clinton people would love him to just unleash. Give us the real Donald Trump, please. They think they'll do much better. But I do
think that this is -- in all seriousness, I think it's not only important that it's close, I still think she's going to win. But a small victory is
going to make it much more difficult to govern.
QUEST: I promise you, I will not hold you to this.
QUEST: What time do you think --
GERGEN: Oh, well!
QUEST: What time do you think we --
GERGEN: I will promise you this, it will be before you go to bed. This is going to be -- this could be a late night. It could be a late night. But
you won't go to bed. We got a world series game last night, and we went into extra innings, the country is very happy today about that. We'll see.
There's going to be a lot of people happy and a lot of people unhappy the next day.
[17:25:03] QUEST: Great to have you. Thank you, sir.
GERGEN: Thank you, Richard.
QUEST: Traders at the corner in Lower Manhattan are feeling the pre- election jitters. Take a look at the numbers. The Dow, S&P 500 a day losing streak. It ties the longest ever in 2008. But it hasn't been big
numbers. It's been a bit here and a bit there.
Gold prices are still holding above 1,300. Of course, you're well familiar, however much of a useless investment it might be, in my humble
opinion. It's a safe haven for investors who are bracing for election turbulence. The chief executive of Randgold Resources, Mark Bristow, whose
profits are surging, joined me earlier and told me that no matter the outcome in November 8th, gold will be the winner.
MARK BRISTOW, CEO, RANDGOLD RESOURCES; I think, you know, both candidates can't be good for America. And so, good for the gold price. Because
you're not going to fix anything. I think everyone's a little panicky about Donald Trump, but keeping the same old story in the American economy
is not going to do much for the economy as well. So globally, Richard, the economy, the global economy is still under a lot of pressure and that's
good for the gold price. But more fundamentally in my view is, there's underlying fundamentals to the gold price and the supply-demand equation.
QUEST: If we take a look at South Africa, and the current seemingly deepening political crisis now surrounding the president, certainly as a
result of the report, the corruption report yesterday. Is it your concern that the South African economy and -- in its wider sense is now running
well and truly off the rails?
BRISTOW: I believe that this is a turning point in South Africa. I think it's great for the first time in many years to see industry leaders
standing up and really making a stand. You know, South Africa's got a reputation of finding solid solutions to these crises. And you know, I'm
very encouraged by what we've seen and I think this is going to be a watershed in the democratization, the real democratization of South Africa,
and it can only be good for Africa. You know, we're not really exposed to South African economy, but it's a great -- it's a leader in Africa, people
look up to it, and it hasn't been a great example recently.
QUEST: So, I'm just going to go straight for it, Mark. Is it time for Zuma to go?
BRISTOW: I believe so. I believe so. Absolutely. The challenges, you know, I think the ANC has that responsibility because that presidential
election was clearly democratic. And the way the presidents are appointed in South Africa, it rarely rests in the hands of the ANC, the majority
party at this stage.
QUEST: Mark Bristow, talking to me from Rangold.
We've got much more ahead. We'll be talking about Iraqi forces now going head to head with ISIS in Mosul. They have entered Mosul, but it's --
despite the dreadfulness of the battle so far, we are told the worst is still to come.
[17:30:51] QUEST: Hello, I'm Richard Quest. There's more QUEST MEANS BUSINESS in just a moment. When U.S. Labor Secretary under George W. Bush
tells me why she doesn't think Hillary Clinton's job plan is better than Donald Trump's.
And one man, two baseball teams, and 194 years' worth of misery, fixed. Meet the man who broke the curse of the Chicago Cubs. Before that this is
CNN and here the news comes first.
For the first time in more than two years, Iraqi forces are inside Mosul, going head to head with ISIS. They stormed in from the east as coalition
forces bombed ISIS in the north. Hundreds of civilians have been trying to flee the city.
Britain's High Court has ruled that the Prime Minister, Theresa May, must get parliament's approval before launching the process to leave the EU.
The government says it will appeal against the decision to the Supreme Court. Speaking on QUEST MEANS BUSINESS, the investment manager who
brought the court case says, it's a question of process and principle, not politics.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GINA MILLER, FOUNDING PARTNER, SCM GROUP: What Mrs. May was saying was to trigger Article 50, to leave the EU, she could use this ancient, secretive
power, called the Royal Prerogative. Its name itself has no place really in modern politics. But by doing so, she could bypass Parliament. So, it
would be her and a handful of her MPs that could decide what laws and rights could be made in the country. And to my mind and my team's mind,
this would be a terribly dangerous precedent that would almost be taking us back to almost 19th century politics.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: In the United States CNN's average poll-of-poll shows a tightening race with Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by four points, 46-42, just
five days before the presidential election.
Campaign surrogates have been helping both candidates. Today it was Melania Trump turn to make a pitch to voters. The wife of the Republican
candidate talked about her own immigration story. She said she'd be an advocate for women and children, if she becomes first lady.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MELANIA TRUMP, DONALD TRUMP'S WIFE: We have to find a better way to talk to each other, to disagree with each other, to respect each other. We must
find better ways to honor and support the basic goodness of our children, especially in social media.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Game seven of the world series drew the biggest audience for a baseball game in a quarter century. More than 40 million people tuned in
to see the long-time losers the Chicago Cubs overcome the Cleveland Indians. It was 8-7 in extra innings. The Cubs ended their 108-year
championship drought, the longest of any major American sports team.
Iraqi forces have killed two ISIS suicide bombers in Eastern Mosul, according to military officials. Just entering the city is seen as
significant in the fight against ISIS. Nic Robertson has more from Irbil.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Richard, yes, this is the day that Iraqi forces, the Iraqi army, for the first time, have entered
Mosul city itself. In two neighborhoods on the east of the city, they describe coming up against pockets of ISIS resistance. They say there were
ISIS snipers on the roofs of the buildings. Of course, now great concern for the military now they're getting into Mosul. A million people,
potentially still living there, about 20,000 have left so far and from the surrounding villages. So, the real concern is with so many civilians in
the city that the army, as it goes street to street, house to house to clear out ISIS, that it doesn't cause civilians casualties. They've asked
the civilians in the city to raise white flags on the roofs of their houses, to remain indoors. And that the army is trying to create
[17:35:00] That said, there's been heavy shelling in a northeastern neighborhood of Mosul, another area that the army is trying to get in to
Mosul. A heavy combat there with ISIS forces. Coalition today in an air strike, struck what was described as ISIS targets on a bridge in Mosul.
What witnesses say were ISIS was a convoy of ISIS vehicles on the bridge in Mosul. Of course, the bridge very important.
The river runs north-south, divides the city into east-west. On the east, that's where the army is now. On the west is where ISIS is expected to put
up more resistance. And on the west, you have the PMU, the mostly Shia militia units, in a flanking maneuver, coming around the west of Mosul, to
try to cut off ISIS, should they try to leave and head towards the Syrian border. The noose is beginning to tighten on ISIS, but the fight now
becomes much harder. Urban street fighting. Very difficult for the army, very hard for the civilians. ISIS potentially now digging in for this long
QUEST: Nik Robertson in Irbil.
Donald Trump says world leaders are fearful of a Trump presidency, as he vows to crack down on economic policies hurting America. World leaders
instead are dreaming of Hillary Clinton. We'll talk about that in a moment.
QUEST: Donald Trump says if he's elected president, he will get tough with the rest of the world, especially when it comes to economic and trade
issues. He says that's left foreign leaders dreaming of a Hillary Clinton presidency. The latest CNN-ORC poll shows people agree with Trump. In the
crucial states of Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Pennsylvania, the majority of voters think that Trump, according to the poll, would handle the economy
better than Clinton. And in each state, it's by a healthy margin. Mr. Trump says his business record with the Chinese has leaders fearing for a
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They go to sleep at night, these tough leaders. You know, they're tough and smart. They're
smart and really tough. They go to dream at night, they go to sleep, and they dream that Hillary Clinton becomes president. That's what their dream
is. I made a lot of money with China. I'm not sure they'd like the idea of me, I'll be honest, but that's OK.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Peter Navarro is the economic adviser --
PETER NAVARRO, TRUMP ECONOMIC ADVISOR: He's on his game. On his game.
QUEST: You've answered every question over the last few months on this economic policy. But the fundamentals still remain. Most economic
forecasters say that the Trump economic plan will balloon the deficit, create fewer jobs, and is more dangerous for the economy.
NAVARRO: Let's break this down. The problem we have here in this country and globally is a level of growth which is well below historic norms. And
on top of that, we have wages in this country which effectively haven't gone up in 15 years in real terms. We've lost over 70,000 factories in 15
years, five million manufacturing jobs. We have a very serious problem. Now, here's the answer to your question. Donald Trump's going to do four
things. You tell me which of these points in the opposite direction of growth? He's going to cut taxes.
[17:40:00] QUEST: Raises the deficit.
NAVARRO: OK, let's do this. Let me do the four. Cut taxes, reduce regulation, unleash the energy sector, which takes energy costs and
electricity prices down, and eliminates the trade deficit by increasing exports and reducing imports. Now, what you get is a doubling of the
growth rate. That's where the revenues come from. My analysis with Wilbur Ross shows that the tax cuts bring us down about $2.6 trillion dynamic over
a ten-year period. But from growth, we get $2.4 trillion back. The biggest mistake the Democrats make in trying to deal with budget deficits
is to think that the answer is raising taxes. The biggest mistake that Republicans make is wanting to cut spending. Best way, sir, is to grow.
QUEST: Right. But on that question of growth, he talks about 4 percent growth. Now the historic level of U.S. growth isn't that high.
NAVARRO: Let me give you --
QUEST: And to try to get 4 percent growth when world trade is slowing and you've got Europe as a basket case on growth. He can't do it, I suppose,
is what I'm saying.
NAVARRO: Sure. Let's agree that we're under-performing at 1.5 percent over the last year, and 1.9 percent over the last 15 years. But here's
your historic norm. 1947 to 2001, 3.5 percent. In the last six years of the Reagan administration, which would be the closest to what Donald Trump
wants to do, we hit 4.4.
Now I agree with you. I agree that four will be hard to sustain over a longer term. He joked about it when he was in New York at the speech. My
advisers want me to say 3.5. That's what I say. I want him to say 3.5 percent, he said 4, let's push for 4. But you go with Hillary Clinton, you
raise taxes, you increase regulation, you put the coal, oil, and gas industries out of business and you keep doing bad trade deals. You know
that growth rate is going to be here or down. With Donald Trump, you know it's going to be increased. The only question is how much.
QUEST: What do you make of it. I've got the letter in front of me, the 370 --
NAVARRO: That was a misquote, but there's 300 there.
QUEST: 370 on this letter. You've got 300 --
NAVARRO: You have the other one too?
QUEST: I had it yesterday.
NAVARRO: There's a letter in September that says over 300 economists denounce Hillary Clinton's plan. This one says they denounce Trump. It's
like if you lay economists end and end, they still can't reach a conclusion. The point here is that my profession, unfortunately, goes by
this textbook trade model, which assumption when you trade with another country, you have mobile capital, mobile labor, floating exchange rates and
winners compensate the losers, that everything will be fine.
That does not exist in the real world. And this is the Mike Pence thing, where he says, tell that to the people in Ft. Wayne or Scranton or Raleigh
Durham that trade is working, it's not working for the American people.
Quest: If in five days' time, Donald Trump wins the election, and the polls are tightening, what role will you play in a Trump administration?
NAVARRO: My mission is complete on election day if he wins.
QUEST: I don't believe you!
NAVARRO: That's fine. But let me say this. We have, in his speech in Pittsburgh, and in his Gettysburg contract with America, he has laid out a
very detailed plan of what he is going to do. And this is not about him or me or anything. It's about the American people getting back to work.
QUEST: Good to see you.
Stay with the Republican side. We've done a lot on the Democrat side. We've always equaled, despite what people write to me on a daily basis. A
former labor secretary who served in George W. Bush's administration says she does not agree with the analysts. I spoke to Secretary Elaine Chao on
the eve of the release of the final jobs report that comes out tomorrow morning. I asked what she's expecting from that report.
ELAINE CHAO, FORMER U.S. SECRETARY OF LABOR: I don't really expect very much change. Right now, the unemployment rate is about 4.9 to 5 percent,
and it's probably going to be at that level as well. One-tenth of 1 percent change doesn't really mean very much at this point. What's going
to be interesting is going to be the number of jobs created.
[17:45:00] And current estimates prior to -- in advance of tomorrow, is a little bit beyond -- below expectations. I think people are protecting
about 146,000, whereas we had been expecting about 165,000. We'll see what happens tomorrow. But overall, the number of jobs created will be
important. We need about 250,000 net new jobs created, just to keep even with population growth. We're well below that.
QUEST: One of the things that the Democrats have trumpeted is that there has been quite considerable job creation during the Obama administration.
Some nine million jobs have been created, they frequently point out. The unemployment rate has come down. But you're not necessarily convinced
that's the best way to look at it.
CHAO: I wish it were the case. But unfortunately, so much of the unemployment rate decrease is due to the fact that so many people,
discouraged workers, have left the workforce, so they're not now counted in the workforce. That's why the unemployment rate dropped. I don't think
that's good for the country. We need to get more robust job growth.
QUEST: Both candidates have Trumpeted -- pardon the pun -- their policies for creating new jobs. But the reality is, according to the various
private economists, they suggest -- well, they don't suggest, they say outright -- that Hillary Clinton's plans and policies would create more
jobs than Donald Trump's. Oxford Economics, Moody's says it. Do you accept that?
CHAO: I actually disagree with that. There are many other economists of outstanding credentials who disagree with that. Basically, if you have our
government as it is now, which is highly -- overly regulated. The tax rate is too high, and the regulations are basically creating a hampering effect
on new job creation.
QUEST: One of the things I find -- I continue to find fascinating, particularly on this economic, and particularly on this unemployment and
employment point, is that there's a statistic for every season. You know, whatever you -- whatever either side wants to extrapolate out of tomorrow's
number, they will be able to do so. I think we can agree on that.
CHAO: Well, numbers speak for themselves. There can be some shading of the numbers, but the numbers speak for themselves. And right now, the
picture is mixed.
QUEST: It's a mixed picture. And you will find the picture here on CNN.
108 years and the Chicago Cubs Are the Best in Baseball Once Again. They had to wait a long time to get it. As the beer and the tears flow in
Chicago, we're going to explore the business strategy of turning loveable losers into world champions, after you've had a moment to Make, Create,
[17:50:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
QUEST: That's what you call raw, unbridled, unleashed, sheer, unadulterated joy.
The curse has been broken. Overnight, Chicago turned from the windy city to a classic party city after the cubs became the world champions of
baseball. They defeated the Cleveland Indians in dramatic fashion to win their first baseball world series in more than --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED SPORTS ANNOUNCER: Brian makes the play, it's over! And the Cubs have finally won it all!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
QUEST: Now for a country much in need of a distraction from the election, 40 million viewers tuned in. It's the most watched baseball game in a
quarter of a century. The secret of the Cubs' success wasn't their star third baseman, or their pitcher who throws at 105 miles an hour. It wasn't
even the team's manager.
It was a 42-year-old graduate of Yale, who has honed his strategy on a computer rather than on the infield dirt. For the Cubs' president of
operations, Theo Epstein, breaking Chicago's curse is the execution of a business plan six years in the making. Now, when Epstein was named the
team's top executive, they were the worst in baseball.
He developed a revolutionary database, staffed an analytics department with top minds, then he assembled a team with specific personalities and unique
skill sets that came together to win. It was Epstein's ability to look past the numbers and evaluate people, that brought his employer that
championship for the first time.
Sara Gramata, a lecturer in sports management at Loyola University, appropriately. I'm surprised you're awake. I'm surprised you're sober and
I'm surprised you managed to get into the studio because I suspect it was a very late night.
SARA GRAMATA, SPORTS MANAGEMENT LECTURER, LOYOLA UNIVERSITY: Yes, it was a late night for everybody, I think, in Chicago. A lot of places didn't
bother to close. Because they knew the merchandise would be going off the store shelves. Dick's even opened up right after the last out was called.
QUEST: Theo Epstein, the president, Joe Madden the coach and Tom Ricketts the owner, but it's Epstein that we look at, as well as Madden's strategy.
What's the claw of that strategy in managerial sense?
GRAMATA: In the managerial sense, really, they broke it down to some very easy to understand principles that were really the guiding light to this
strategy. That's one of the key things we teach at Loyola University of Chicago, in our business school is have the strategy and keep it simple so
that everybody can understand it.
QUEST: Give me one example of the simplicity of that strategy in this case.
GRAMATA: For example, they had three guiding principles. One was to be a good neighbor. If you're familiar with Wrigley Field, it's a very
condensed area in literally downtown of Chicago. And they also want to preserve Wrigley. So, those were two things they set out to do. It wasn't
necessarily to win a world series. Obviously, that is the ultimate goal. It's profitable and it's always on the horizon for every team, whether
you're the highest paying team or not.
QUEST: But you also had to put together a team, and this idea of finding players that would mesh, before they were even successful. Putting
together the hope of a team rather than just waiting to pay a lot of money for existing stars.
GRAMATA: Right. Well, having faith in Rizzo, a lot of people had passed on him. Grandpa Rossi, everyone thought maybe he was too old. They really
believed in their players. Chapman was obviously, a really unique and also controversial acquisition that the Cubs made.
QUEST: Will you be looking at the Epstein formula in the managerial way, and indeed the way Tom Ricketts employed him and basically let him get on
with the job and Madden with the coaching, being nice to people but firm at the same time. Is this a case study for Loyola in the future?
GRAMATA: Absolutely. Looking at those guiding principles and what were the key elements that pulled it all together. Because we've been waiting
over a hundred years for this win.
[17:55:00] And Chicago today, it's just a wonderful day to be living in Chicago.
QUEST: It's 4:55 in Chicago, I shall let you attend to your duties.
GRAMATA: Thank you, Richard.
By the way, the reason it's called the world series is nothing to do with the globe, it's to do with the World Chewing Gum Company which originally
sponsored it. Profitable Moment next.
QUEST: Tonight's Profitable Moment, just when you thought the whole Brexit saga couldn't get more complicated, the high-court has decided that
parliament needs to approve the invocation of article 10, which will kick off the negotiations between the U.K. and the European Union.
The supreme court will have an appeal on this, but there seems to be a view that the appeal will fail. After all, the legal minds that have looked at
this so far have been fairly robust. What does it mean? No one really knows.
Parliament is now going to get its sticky fingers involved, if this goes the way it looks like, and they could amend any form of act that authorizes
the negotiation. Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, second referendum, general election, morass of uncertainty, the governor of the Bank of England said
exactly that today.
Volatility can be expected. And all of that between now and the end of March. And that's QUEST MEANS BUSINESS for tonight. I'm Richard Quest in
New York. Whatever you're up to in the hours ahead, I hope it's profitable. I'll see you tomorrow.