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Presidential Race; Election Day Weather; Nevada Early Voting. Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired November 07, 2016 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[14:00:34] BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Here we go. We are live in Washington, D.C. The beautiful bump shot over the CNN, overlooking the White House, the Washington Monument. Blue skies on this Monday afternoon. Thrilled to be here live in our nation's capital. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you for being with us.

I just want to welcome viewers here in the United States and all around the world. You are watching CNN's special coverage of the presidential election.

One more day until, as both candidates are calling it, the most consequential day in modern political history. Americans, you will be choosing the president tomorrow. And the race will go all the way past midnight tonight. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, they are both due to speak at rallies well after the prime time hours tonight as they bombard these battleground states.

Hillary Clinton, she has four events, including one moments from now in Michigan. We'll dip in. Also, Donald Trump will be speaking shortly from North Carolina, one of five states he will be covering today.

And we are covering the big day like only CNN can, with teams fanned out in battleground states all across America.

Let's begin the hour on the campaign trail beginning with Hillary Clinton and her campaign. Brianna Keilar is live in Pittsburgh, where the former of secretary of state kicked off her final day of her campaign. You have been on the bus, Miss Brianna Keilar, for us. A fresh view from the trail. Nice digs. Tell me - or are you on the plane? Have you gone from the bus to the plane?

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, we're on the plane right now, Brooke. And if I do have to say good-bye abruptly, it is because we are about to taxi momentarily. But I just want to give you a little bit of a peek into what it's like on the campaign trail. You are in the press cabin of Hillary Clinton's plane. And this is full of reporters, photographers, still photographers, TV photographers, all of these folks who have given the better part of the last year of their live to covering this campaign day in, day out, and certainly at this point in time, without a whole lot of sleep.

But we are getting ready now to head from Pittsburgh, which is where we are currently, and then we're going to be going to Grand Rapids, Michigan, for the second of four stops that Hillary Clinton is going to be taking today.

After Grand Rapids, she goes on to Philadelphia. So, you know, Pennsylvania is so key when we're here in Pittsburgh now, heading to Michigan, and then coming back to Philadelphia. And then she'll be ending the night in Raleigh, North Carolina. North Carolina, as well, so important to her path to 270 electoral votes.

We did hear briefly from Secretary Clinton, Brooke, not here in Pittsburgh, but when we began this trip in White Plains, New York, and she said, of course, she's happy that we are nearing the end here and it's all about turnout, which it - which it really is. But she also said that she realizes she has work to do to bring the country together. Of course, talking as if she is going to take the White House. There's some confidence. I'm sure that you've been hearing this from Clinton folks that they've put in the work and that they will, with some of the early votes that they're seeing and some pf the turnout, especially with Latino voters, that they feel like they will be able to have a success tomorrow. But, of course, you know, we don't know at this moment and this is the last mad dash.

BALDWIN: I'll let you sit down for the mad dash. Buckle up. Enjoy your lunch. Hi to Dan Merica (ph). We spotted him also, a CNN producer there on board that plane. Brianna Keilar en route to Michigan. Thank you.

You know, she mention the Latino vote, and on that, the prefect segue is to North Carolina, which really could be this game-changer in this election. Donald Trump has a very narrow path to victory if he loses the traditionally red states, 15 electoral votes. And according to CNN's poll of polls, it's tight. Right now Hillary Clinton holds 45 percent of support from likely voters compared to Trump's 43.

Let's go to Gary Tuchman, who is in Charlotte, North Carolina. This state, just underscore for me, how key it is for these candidates come tomorrow.

GARY TUCHMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Extremely key, Brooke. And we sense a lot of enthusiasm here on the campus of UNC-Charlotte, and throughout the state of North Carolina. Not necessarily because of a love of the candidates, but because of a recognition that this state is so crucial. This is a primo battleground state.

And as you said, our CNN poll of polls shows Hillary Clinton up by two points. If she would win, it would only be the third time in the last 40 years a Democrat has won in the state. Barack Obama winning in 2008 by less than one percentage point. And in 1976, Jimmy Carter, the governor of nearby Georgia, also winning it.

[14:05:11] Hillary Clinton would love to win again. Donald Trump would love to win. And Donald Trump also probably needs to win. It's hard to envision the mathematics necessary to win the presidential race for Donald Trump without winning the state of North Carolina. There's 16 days of early voting in this state and 3.1 million people voted in the early voting. What that all means is this, it's 15 percent higher than four years ago. So it shows you that level of enthusiasm and the level of awareness.

And that's one of the things, Brooke, that's really impressive, not just here in North Carolina, but all over the country. I've covered a lot of presidential elections. The awareness that people have about this election, they're paying attention to all the facts and figures and watching all the television news about it. I've never seen recognition like this in all the years I've been covering presidential elections.

Back to you.

BALDWIN: We were all talking before the show, it's the number 103 percent. That is the increase of Latino turnout just in Florida from 2008 now to 2016.

Gary Tuchman, thank you so much, in Charlotte.

Let me bring in my panel and we can parse through all of this on this election eve.

CNN chief political analyst Gloria Borger is here. CNN political commentator Michael Smerconish, who's from CNN's "SMERCONISH." CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash. And CNN political commentator Mary Katharine Ham, senior writer at "The Federalist."

So great to see all of you. Happy election eve.

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good to see you.

BALDWIN: Can we - can we believe we've finally arrived at this moment? I know, deep breath.

And, actually, let me just springboard, Michael, off of Gary Tuchman's point about Hispanics. I saw something on your Twitter about if, you know, "Time" magazine were to say the most important person of the year would be the Hispanic vote.

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I want to be on record now.

BALDWIN: You're on record, officially.

SMERCONISH: Because every - every December we have that debate on my radio program. We bring a guest from "Time" magazine on. There are the usual suspects. This year I think it might be obvious that the Hispanic voter. And I've been re-reading that autopsy report commissioned by Reince Priebus and there is a particular line in there where they said, you know, if Hispanics perceive that our nominee doesn't care about their presence in the country, they're not going to follow the next sentence that comes out of his or her mouth. And I think that's a lesson that maybe was appreciated by Reince Priebus and by Sean Spicer and others, but not by the candidate. And that might come back to haunt.

BASH: I'm with Smerconish.

BALDWIN: You agree? You're going on the record with him?

BASH: Yes. Totally. One hundred percent. One hundred percent. I think you're exactly right. I mean, you know, not unusual, of course.

SMERCONISH: Oh, yes. Unusual when it comes to Trump. You don't know my record.

BASH: I do. I do. That was a little bit of sarcasm.

But, no, but, seriously, I think that there's no question. And just look at the early voting.

BALDWIN: Yes.

BASH: And we were talking about it all - backstage about the early voting in Florida, in particular, which is always a bellwether state. And Donald Trump has said explicitly that he needs to win Florida to win the White House. I mean, he could win without it, but it's very, very difficult. And just the explosion of the Latino vote is not something that is unexpected. That's the other thing, is that, you know, anybody who has studied politics even a little bit and demographics as they relate to politics saw this coming from a mile away about just the increase in the Latino vote. Combine that with what seems to be a fervor for Hillary and, maybe more importantly, against Donald Trump, that I totally agree is probably going to be the story on Tuesday night.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: You know in the autopsy report, though, when they were talking about the Latino vote, it wasn't getting at Latinos to vote against Republican, it was voting -

BASH: Exactly.

BORGER: It was getting Latinos -

BALDWIN: To vote for -

BORGER: To vote for -

BALDWIN: Right.

BORGER: The Republican presidential candidate. And I remember talking to Mitt Romney after 2012, and he had 27 percent, I believe.

BASH: Twenty-seven percent.

BORGER: Of the Latino vote. And he said to me at the time, if I only had a few more points in the Latino vote, I could have - I could have won the presidency. Now, that may or may not be true, but that was his thought, that what Republicans needed to do was get out the Latino vote, but not for the other party.

BALDWIN: But the Latino vote is part of it. But then when you also look at all the different states they're swinging through, just even today. And, by the way, there's a possibility tomorrow, traditionally when they would both be voting both in New York, that they could add campaign stops. And on the blue wall we talked so much about the blue wall and these blue states that traditionally go Democrat. And to, you know, to you, let me just ask, the fact that we will be seeing the president in Michigan, Hillary Clinton, we saw Brianna on the campaign plane heading to Michigan. Does that signal fear or does that signal, we're not taking anything for granted, we're here, we need your vote before we roll on to Philly?

MARY KATHARINE HAM, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, this is the strange power of Donald Trump is that he can have more appeal in a Michigan, a Pennsylvania, a Ohio than Mitt Romney did, even when he maybe doesn't have a ground game, even when he is not spending money on TV, he can still be powerful in those places. They know that. The thing about where they are is that they are throwing blocks, though. They're not -

BALDWIN: Who's the they?

HAM: The Hillary Clinton campaign is throwing blocks here.

BALDWIN: Hillary Clinton. Yes.

HAM: Like, North Carolina is for Donald Trump a must win. For them it's, we're going to block your path. So I think there's a difference in how important each of these states is for each camp. And it's - the problem for him remains, he has to do things right in so many states. And she just has to block his path.

[14:10:10] BALDWIN: You were saying earlier, he kind of has to be perfect.

HAM: Yes.

BALDWIN: He kind of has to be perfect and perfection is a tough -

HAM: Well, I mean, he will tell you he is -

BALDWIN: (INAUDIBLE).

HAM: But I'm not sure the operation actually will be in each of these states that he has - have things fall his way.

BALDWIN: What's going on? I mean you all have covered so many of these different campaigns, Gloria, and I'm just - I would defer to you on, in the final 24 hours, the where they are versus the message, the we will win, we are on offense.

BORGER: Well, they both want you to believe they're on offense. First of all, we've had 40 million early votes at this time. It is - it changes the face of where they're going and their - and the entire race. We've had -

BALDWIN: More people have voted in Florida, already early voting and absentee in all of 2012.

BORGER: Early voting. That - exactly. So that is - that is different. I think you see Hillary Clinton also focusing on states that haven't early voted, Pennsylvania, Michigan. So you want to help - you want to help your get out the vote effort.

Politics has become - it's a game of love, of course, because you want to like the person you're voting for. But it is also a game of science at this point. Data analytics, both sides, the Republican National Committee has upped its game tremendously from 2012. They knew they had a problem and they have handed their analytics, working hand in hand with the - with the Trump campaign. The Democrats already had a great ground game. They still continue to have a great ground game.

So what they're trying to do now in the last minutes of this campaign is get people to the polls whatever way they can. And that's why you see Donald Trump in five states because he's got to turn one of those blue states red. And he knows it.

BASH: And to your point, you know, the campaigns and the political parties have adopted so much of the way that they try to get voters to sign onto a candidate from the business world. I mean, they're kind of trying to sell Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton the way Kellogg sells a cereal. I mean it's obviously incredibly different in terms of the product -

HAM: Really bad cereal.

BASH: But - but it's - well, yes. I mean that's the thing, is that, you know, but if you're hungry, maybe not so much.

HAM: True. Yes.

BASH: But, you know, it - but to the point where, you know, they go in and they know you, Brooke Baldwin, you like x, y and z, you know, your issues are on foreign policy, you care about what's going to happen with the environment, and then they try to sell you the candidate based on the issues that you care most about.

Now, when there's a wave election or when there is something that is beyond the data or bigger than the data, that might not matter, but for many voters, that is how these parties and these campaigns try to persuade.

BALDWIN: We have more on candidates and cereal and also on your hometown of Philadelphia.

SMERCONISH: Great.

BALDWIN: A mega, mega party happening later.

Stick around, please, because, let me just remind all of you, very shortly Donald Trump, Ivanka Trump, Hillary Clinton, President Obama, all out, all making their last minute pitches to you today. Stand by. We'll take them live. We are here in Washington on a Monday, the day before the big day.

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[14:17:20] BALDWIN: Welcome back. You're watching CNN's special live coverage here in Washington, D.C. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Let's talk about another huge factor tomorrow on Election Day, the

weather. Right now looks like voters in all-important battleground states, those are the ones here on your map in yellow, won't have too many issues with the weather, but let's just triple-check. Let's go to meteorologist Tom Sater in the CNN Weather Center.

Tom, what's the headline?

TOM SATER, AMS METEOROLOGIST: How about two words that haven't been used to describe this election, "pleasant," "calm," Brooke. It really looks good. There are some trouble spots. I mean, really, it seems like the last year and a half has just been building high pressure with intermittent spells of hot air.

But here's what we've got going on. Look at the West Coast right now. Rain will stay out of Portland and Seattle until after the polls close. All of the West Coast looks great. A lot of sunshine. We do have a storm system in the middle of the country. Nothing severe. Great news. The only accumulating snow, well, parts of Alaska. I mean history does show us, I mean turnout is a big thing when it comes to the weather. There are a couple of interesting little spots we're going to watch.

Cold front in the middle of the country, isolated showers in Texas to Louisiana. Nothing that's going to keep people home. But take a look at Ohio. When we look at old reports of weather and forecasting, if it's a prolonged period of rain, many, especially elderly voters, will want to stay in. This moves in around 11:30 in Toledo and most of the day from Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland will be in a prolonged period of rain. Again, nothing heavy, nothing severe, but it could be a little uncomfortable for standing long periods of time at the voting booth, volunteers, pollsters. This will stay here until the polls close.

Michigan is another one. Doesn't really move in until around 11:00, but we're going to find it heavier to the south and it will stay in the Detroit area until the polls close. This is where it's going to get a little bit of a - more of a cool rain, more chilly, uncomfortable again.

Florida is interesting. They've got an east wind, but the weather's cooperating. Now, what we saw in 2000 was many reports say Al Gore could have won Florida if they didn't have wet weather all day keeping some voters away. No problems there. But, overall, it's going to be cool. Most locations, by the end of the day, Brooke, are going to be a good 15 degrees warmer than average. So you can't ask for much more than this. Just most of the activity will be in Michigan and Ohio. Let's hope for a cold front on Wednesday just to cool everybody down for a while.

BALDWIN: I like it. I like it. It's so gorgeous here in Washington.

SATER: Yes.

BALDWIN: We were just thinking, it is so odd that it's so beautiful here in November. Tom, thank you.

SATER: Sure.

BALDWIN: Let me bring back my panel here and all these voices in. And to the guy who lives in Philadelphia, you know, big night in your town tonight. You have the Clintons, you have Jon Bon and Bruce, a little "Thunder Road," and, then, of course, the first lady and Michelle Obama.

[14:20:01] SMERCONISH: Right.

BALDWIN: How - is - this is unprecedented. Let me say this, unprecedented to have a president being such a central surrogate in any campaign.

SMERCONISH: Poor Bon Jovi, he signed on first, right, now it's The Boss' show.

BALDWIN: Yes.

SMERCONISH: The real big story from home is that the desepta (ph) strike. Our mass transit system was resolved. I always knew that would be the case. Bob Brady, who is not only a member of Congress, but also the chair of the Democratic city committee and has a lot of labor cred. I knew there was no way he was going to let that stand in the way of an election. So that's resolved. No one has an excuse of not getting out to vote.

And so the president's role is to energize the African-American base so that Hillary Clinton can come out of Philadelphia with a head of steam to offset the losses that she'll sustain elsewhere in the state, particularly as Carville famously said - frankly, it was Neil Oxman (ph) who said it first, that Alabama that exists between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Can I say one other thing?

BALDWIN: Please.

SMERCONISH: I live in the Philadelphia suburb.

BALDWIN: Yes.

SMERCONISH: I'd be wealthy if I had a nickel for every time someone has invoked the Philadelphia suburbs. And my entire family votes. I've already voted in the Philadelphia suburbs. It's not the suburbs. It's the Lehigh Valley.

BORGER: Yes.

SMERCONISH: The burbs are going for her. Tell me what happens in the Lehigh Valley, which is on the cusp between Suburbia and the Poconos, which is Trump country, and then I could give you a clearer image of what happens in Pennsylvania. And don't underestimate the role of The Boss because I'm reading "Born to Run," his memoir, and he writes - BALDWIN: Yes. Oh, done too.

SMERCONISH: It's fabulous. He writes about and knows that Trump constituency of (INAUDIBLE) Democrats.

BALDWIN: Yes.

BASH: OK, this is where I'm going to disagree with me.

SMERCONISH: Tell me.

BASH: Because this is hard for me, as a Jersey girl. It is, as you would say, "Sophie's Choice." But when The Boss shows up -

SMERCONISH: Yes.

BASH: I don't care if you're Jon Bon Jovi, you just got to step aside. Maybe even bow. I mean you just have to. So -

BALDWIN: Agreed.

BASH: OK.

BALDWIN: Agreed.

HAM: Here's one for team Jon Bon Jovi over here.

BALDWIN: Oh, OK.

BASH: All right. You can have it.

BORGER: I think being there first -

BALDWIN: Bruce. Bruce.

BORGER: (INAUDIBLE) a little bit.

BASH: And being Bruce. OK, let's focus.

BALDWIN: All right, Jersey girl.

BASH: Let's focus.

You're right about Lehigh Valley. The one county, not to get too really into the weeds -

BALDWIN: Weeds.

BASH: But this is what -

BALDWIN: We love your nerdiness.

BASH: What's going to -

BALDWIN: Lay it on us. BASH: I know. I know. I wear it well, right? Chester County is the one

area around up those collar counties, the four counties around Philadelphia -

BALDWIN: Isn't that where Ivanka was?

BASH: That - yes.

BALDWIN: Yes.

BASH: Where Ivanka - that went for Mitt Romney. Just barely, but went for Mitt Romney. It will be interesting to me to see if even that county goes Democratic this time. I don't know, you know the area better - what town do you live in?

SMERCONISH: I was born and raced in Bucks County.

BASH: OK.

BORGER: Right.

SMERCONISH: And now have been in Montgomery Country for the last 15 years.

BASH: Right, which is definitely - which is definitely going to go Hillary.

SMERCONISH: Definitely.

BORGER: But remember when we were supposed to see this -

SMERCONISH: Used to be competitive.

BORGER: We were supposed to see, and we'll see if we see it, this realignment that Donald Trump was talking about after he won the primaries, which was effectively taking states like Pennsylvania, states like Ohio, Michigan, maybe Wisconsin, but, you know, taking states where he could grab the working class voters who feel so disenfranchised by the Republican Party and the Democratic Party and that he would be able to carve out victories in states that Republicans normally don't win. Break through the blue wall, if you will, and then - and then some.

BASH: That's right.

BORGER: He was even talking about New Jersey, if I recall, Jersey girl, right?

BASH: He was. He was.

BORGER: He was talking about New Jersey. And that would have been a huge realignment in American politics. We will have to see whether he is able to even get a piece of that or whether the demography in the country is changing so quickly that the changing demographics favor the urban areas, the diverse areas.

BALDWIN: Jump in. Here we go.

HAM: Well, to get - he's keeping it close without doing, let's be frank, the basics of the campaign. He's not spending the money on TV that you would normally see.

BORGER: Right.

HAM: He doesn't have this ground game that you normally see. He's not - at the moment is in a dispute with his internal pollster about whether he's been paid. They don't have internal numbers. I mean it's a very different kind of race he's running. And if he had done some of those things, I think he would have a much better chance of pulling this across the line and seeing that realignment, because I think there were moments where you saw that light and that possibility of a rust belt realignment, but I'm not sure without the blocking and tackling you can do that.

BASH: They're getting the modeling from the RNC. The question is whether they use it.

HAM: Well, yes, the prediction modeling -

BASH: Right.

HAM: In (ph) in the RNC I think is a better product than 2012. Whether they use it is the question.

BASH: Oh, exactly.

BORGER: Absolutely.

BALDWIN: Ladies, Smerconish, thank you. Thank you all. Thank you.

Just a reminder, we will have all day coverage of Elections Day right here on CNN.

Coming up here live from Washington, Donald Trump's campaign manager says her candidate has six different paths - count them, six, to victory tomorrow night. Next, we'll take a closer look at three battleground states out west that are likely part of Trump's Election Day game plan.

[14:24:47] I'm Brooke Baldwin here in the nation's capital. You're watching CNN's special live coverage.

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BALDWIN: Welcome to Washington, D.C. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

Election Day, can we say it, it is hours away. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, they are making their last stands across key battleground states in this country. They have hit the ground running with final pitches to American voters and CNN is spread across the electoral map watching early voting numbers.

Let's begin with CNN national correspondent Kyung Lah is in Vegas, Stephanie Elam is in Salt Lake City, Dam Simon's in Phoenix.

So to Vegas first.

Kyung.

[14:29:56] KYUNG LAH, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: What you're looking at here, Brooke, is, they have taken the early voting numbers at this place. This is the Culinary Union 226. And we're going to walk you through what is their phone bank. So it's the early voting numbers that they're looking at and then they're individually going through that list, figuring out who hasn't voted, and if you