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U.K. Election 2017 Results in Hung Parliament. Aired 12-1a ET
Aired June 09, 2017 - 00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[23:59:56] UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He did not emulate --
(CROSSTALK)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: -- his supposed friend, Sir Vince Cable in Twickenham where -- and he should of saw the difference between, I would say, running up against a popular local MP like Neil Coyle from neighboring Bermondsey and running up against unpopular Tory in Twickenham.
HALA GORANI, CNN ANCHOR: Stay tuned. We continue our coverage of the U.K. election 2017.
The British Prime Minister's political future is hanging in the balance this morning following a number of shock results in Thursday's general election.
Theresa May arrived at Conservative headquarters in London as the party looks to what the future might hold for her also for the party after calling a snap election in the hope of increasing her parliamentary majority. And now it appears the gamble has backfired badly and her party is in fact going to lose seats. However, after holding her own seat, she struck a defiant tone.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
THERESA MAY, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: At any time more than anything else, this country needs a period of stability. And if as the indications have shown, if this is correct, that the Conservative Party has won the most seats and probably the most votes, then it will be incumbent on us to ensure that we have that period of stability, and that is exactly what we will do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Promising a period of stability, perhaps an appeal to the country to keep her job and remain the leader of the party that gets the most votes. We'll see how the vote though shakes up.
But one man seems to be having a much, much better night.
He may not have a majority but he's kind of looks like his enjoying the moment. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn who left his house to chants and cheers earlier said Mrs. May had lost the confidence of the people and should go.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JEREMY CORBYN, LABOUR PARTY LEADER: If there is a message from tonight's results it is this. The Prime Minister called the election because she wanted a mandate. Well, the mandate she's got is lost Conservative seats, lost votes, lost support and lost confidence.
I would have thought that's enough to go actually and make way for a government that will be truly representative of all the people of this country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Emboldened there, Jeremy Corbyn, his party outperformed expectations. And as the shocks keep coming, the former leader of the Scottish National Party Alex Salmond lost his seat. The current party leader Nicola Sturgeon said she would be willing to enter into a coalition, but it's not clear sure how many seats she'll get in the end.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NICOLA STURGEON, SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY: This is a disaster for Theresa May. You know, she called an election. Clearly, arrogantly thinking that she was going to cut the opposition and sweep everybody aside and get a landslide majority, you know, her position I think is very, very difficult.
We have to wait and see the seats she gets but you know, I've always said, the SNP would want to be part of the (inaudible) government. But, you know, there's a number of seats still to be declared.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Nicola Sturgeon there. Let's take a look at the results as they stand now -- Richard.
RICHARD QUEST, CNN HOST: Well, I don't know what Nicola Sturgeon has to be pleased about tonight. She's lost 18 seats. Although her performance in 2015 was always going to be exceptional, there's only a couple of seats that they didn't in Scotland, to lose 18 and on average they seem to be losing about anywhere between 12 and 17 percent of their vote.
But a very good night for Labour -- up 31 seats net-net over their losses versus their gains. And just to put that in perspective they actually have only lost four seats and they've gained 35. That's an extraordinary performance tonight.
Whereas the Tories have lost 31, gained 17 for their net, net-net.
The Liberal Democrats, I think that Liberal Democrats -- they've gained two seats, net-net over their performance. Is that a good performance? Well, they gained Vince Cable who is the granddaddy of the parliament except for maybe (inaudible) Campbell. But I mean they gained Vince Cable. But they also then lost Nick Clegg who is the former deputy foreign prime minister and leader of the party. GORANI: All right. Hannah Vaughn Jones is outside the houses of
parliament with more analysis, and a guest -- Hannah.
HANNAH VAUGHN JONES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi -- Hala. Hi -- Richard.
Political earthquakes really certainly reverberating around the Parliament at Westminster just behind me as people are waking up to this extraordinary election results. Theresa May certainly as you've been saying would not have predicted at all that anything like this would have happened just seven weeks ago.
[00:05:00] I'm joined by Carole Walker, analyst who can try and break down all these results for us. Carole -- it is extraordinary, isn't it? It was a high-risk political gamble by Theresa May and it looks like that gamble has not paid off.
CAROLE WALKER, POLITICAL ANALYST: Absolutely. What a night. Theresa May called this general election -- she didn't have to do so -- saying that she wanted to get her own big mandate to go into those Brexit negotiations. Instead of which she is struggling to even have a majority.
The latest projection suggests that perhaps the Conservatives might end up with an overall majority of perhaps three seats. But overall, they have lost seats. We have seen ministers like Gavin Barwell losing their seats in south London. The Conservatives losing seats that they've held for over 150 years.
Labour performing much better than expected. And a huge churn -- so many seats across the land changing.
JONES: For our international viewers, Carole, if we end up with a hung parliament, what does that mean? And what happens in the immediate aftermath of that being announced effectively? And in terms of the deals that are going to be going on in the corridors behind us?
WALKER: Well, clearly if you get a majority that is a slender as that, it means it's very, very difficult to get any kind of controversial measures through. It was difficult enough beforehand, that's why Theresa May called the election in the first place.
But what it means is that the other parties can gang up against the Conservatives and prevent them getting their way on just about anything they want to get through -- on their economic plans, of course, on their Brexit plans.
We should say, of course, that the Conservatives may well be able to call on the support of the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland. It looks as though they're on course to have ten seats. That could help them somewhat.
I think the big question now is Theresa May. She appeared at her own count in Maidenhead but, of course, she won her seat but it is utterly shaken. She said that if the Conservatives have the most votes, the most seats then they should try to install a period of stability. But after a campaign in which she's talked all about herself, all about Theresa May's Conservatives, no mention of her own personal future and a lot of Conservative MPs are furious with her at calling this election, and then having such a disastrous campaign.
JONES: And they're going to be looking as well to a potential different leader as well, should she have (inaudible) sort of as a result of this election. Amber Rudd, her Home Secretary just holding on, Richard was just giving us the results there -- 300 I think majority for her seat as well. So she's back in. Is she a potential Tory party leader?
WALKER: Amber Rudd is certainly a potential contender in a future Conservative Party contest, which many people think is now inevitable. The other figures are people like David Davis. He's currently the Brexit secretary. He's been pretty high-profile in that job. And of course, Boris Johnson, at the moment, the foreign secretary, a huge figure, a vote winner. He had a pretty catastrophic campaign in the last Conservative leadership contest.
JONES: As was his majority in this one, as well.
WALKER: Absolutely, which was less than a year ago; but what we certainly haven't got is this period of stability which Theresa May talked about. If you're going to have a Conservative leadership contest and then a new leader with a very, very slender majority in the House of Commons, there is every prospect we could be into another general election in six months' time. During that period it's going to be very, very difficult to make any real progress in those Brexit negotiations.
JONES: And Theresa May had said this is all about Brexit. She wanted a strong hand to be able to go to Brussels and negotiate on behalf of Britain. Is it really all about Brexit, or has this election shown us that really as far as the election is concerned this is really about austerity and about things that matter to ordinary people? Brexit is going to happen one way or another anyway, so they've misjudged -- we could say they misjudged the mood of the public.
WALKER: Completely. And Theresa May and the Conservatives lost control of the agenda as this campaign unfolded. Yes, Theresa May said it's all about Brexit. It's all about strengthening her hands in those negotiations.
But she performed a whole series of U-turns. She came out with some very controversial policies on social care, about how to look after people in their old age.
Jeremy Corbyn came out with a very strong, positive message saying, oh, you could end austerity. We can pump hundreds of billions of pounds into the economy. We can give university students free tuition fees; they wouldn't have to pay any tuition fees. He had a whole series of very positive offers for the electorate.
I should say, of course, we've also had these two very serious terrorist attacks during this campaign; in Manchester, then here in London. The debate then focused around security. Labour was criticizing the government for cutting police numbers. Theresa May saying she was the person who could instill security. But she has been the Home Secretary for seven years, so her own record was on the line.
[00:10:07] So many problems, so many difficulties and a campaign which was completely off the rails as far as the Conservatives are concerned.
JONES: And another thing, also, to consider as well is voter fatigue as well. We've had an election back in 2015, another one now. We've also had a Brexit referendum. The Scots have been voting on independence. And that was a potential upcoming another vote as well.
So Hala and Richard -- back to you in the studio. But basically, the feeling around here at the moment is just that everyone's a little bit exhausted by politics. And there's still a long ways to go before tonight's proceedings have any kind of results.
GORANI: Well, they better find some energy somewhere, because at some point this year, in the next 12 months or whenever it happens, there might be another general election.
Let's bring in our Max Foster. He's outside 10 Downing Street with more on -- where is Theresa May now? What is she doing? Is her future in jeopardy?
MAX FOSTER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, she was seen heading towards London. She hasn't turned up at Downing Street so we can only assume that she's speaking to members of the Tory Party and having to discuss her future no doubt because this was a gamble that she made that has not paid off.
She wanted a mandate -- stronger mandate to go into Brexit negotiations. That was her whole argument to call the election behind me some weeks ago, and it hasn't paid off for her. So her future is in the balance. But then you have to look at possible people that might come in behind her.
Also we're hearing discussions about Scotland. There's all sorts of little dynamics that are changing now which we're trying to make sense of. So Tories actually might not have done well across the country, but did extremely well in Scotland. Tories wanting to stay within the European Union, the SNP wanting to stay -- Tories wanting to leave the European Union, the Scottish National Party wanting to stay in the European Union. So that in a way does deflect any idea of referendum as well.
So lots of interesting dynamics going on across the nations as well.
GORANI: All right. Thanks very much. Max Foster is at 10 Downing Street.
The results are coming in, although there are only a few seats left, a few constituencies left to, in fact --
QUEST: Let's bring in Castle (ph) for his report. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: 14,769; 693; 3,030 -- (inaudible). I do hereby
declare -- (inaudible)
QUEST: Yvette Cooper, wife of Ed Balls, former shadow chancellor. She was former shadow foreign secretary.
YVETTE COOPER, FORMER SHADOW FOREIGN SECRETARY: Thank you very much. I want to give my thanks to Ed Balls who (inaudible). We worked so hard for all parties for this election to stand up for our democracy.
(inaudible) Campaign, this election was called on a false premise. Theresa May made this election a referendum on herself (inaudible). It is an honor for me to be reelected (inaudible). I'll keep doing what I've been doing for over 20 years. And it's great honor and privilege to be able to work with people outside -- all of our towns.
It's great to see Labour candidates winning back constituencies across the country. I hope that continues over the next few hours to uphold the work --
QUEST: Interesting result here because Yvette Cooper resigned from the front bench of the Labour Party from the cabinet over Jeremy Corbyn.
Good night for Corbyn -- excellent night for Corbyn. She is back in parliament as well. It will be interesting to see whether or not because she does have the depth of experience, she decides Corbyn has got his mandate that she should return to the front bench.
GORANI: Right. And it's going to be interesting. She as well as Jeremy Corbyn -- both have essentially we don't understand how Theresa May can continue, can keep on. She needs to step down. She called this election, it backfired on her.
But it's not surprising to hear that from Labour politicians but potentially even members of her own party Theresa May will start discussing her future now.
MARCUS ROBERTS, YOUGOV POLITICAL POLLSTER: Oh yes. And there's two points here to consider. One is what's happening in the Labour Party tonight, and one what's happening in the Conservatives and with the government.
[00:15:06] For Labour politicians like Yvette Cooper who had hoped that they might be leaders to the Labour Party on a more moderate platform. They're playing a new game here; the rules have changed.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the street, the Conservatives are grappling with the return of political gravity. Because we can play all the clever math we want, that political gravity is saying Theresa May has lost her mandate, has lost her strong and stable branding, and has lost her majority. Put that together, it's very difficult to see how she holds on.
QUEST: We have a reality check. Whatever happens over the next -- is there only 37 seats left? GORANI: Yes.
Quest: Whatever happens tonight, there is a weak government either from the Conservative party, who are cobbling together something with the DIP and the Ulster Unionists (ph) to try to hold on to power; or Jeremy Corbyn who will put together some ridiculously large coalition with the SNP, the Lib Dems, anybody else he can find to try and get to 326. Or we end up with a minority government that battles on through. There is no --
GORANI: Either way, how do you conduct business under these circumstances?
ROBERTS: This may have been the election in which there was no majority to be won by any party. It may be the case that Labour was too left wing to win a majority in the country. But left wing enough to energize these voters in extraordinary numbers to become a large party opposition.
(CROSSTALK)
ROBERTS: Equally it may be that the Conservatives were too right wing to win a majority but large enough to still form the largest party. In that politics it is very difficult to see how anyone can govern.
GORANI: And none of this needed to happen. And that's key. That's key. It didn't need to happen. Theresa May could have stayed on until 2020 with a majority in parliament.
ROBERTS: Exactly. But calling the election when she was in a strong position is not necessarily her mistake. Running a campaign as bad as she did, with all of the mistakes that ensued -- that's probably what she will be --
GORANI: No, but also there's an element -- there's an element of taking for granted voters based on polls. That you could consider -- I mean her critics might say why did you do that?
ROBERTS: Oh, very much so.
GORANI: That was arrogant, you shouldn't have done it.
ROBERTS: A bunch of pollsters who got this wrong will be moving to Iceland tonight as a result because it just wasn't good enough. But meanwhile, Labour politicians are wondering how do we live in a new Corbyn era Labour Party even as Conservative politicians are working out who can be our new prime minister.
GORANI: All right. Richard -- we have more --
QUEST: I don't know whether you can blame a politician whose sole job it is to get reelected for being opportunistic and taking the moment when you think you're going to increase --
GORANI: No, it is not our job to blame them but just to deconstruct the decision and how badly it backfired. How badly -- ROBERTS: You may not blame them but you can be punished by the voters
for that.
QUEST: -- which is exactly what we're seeing tonight. 35 seats still to go. The Tories are down. When I say net-net, I'm taking those seats that they've won, and netting off those seats that they've lost. So yes, the Tories have won some seats tonight. They've won about seven or eight of them. But they've lost more. So net-net, they're down 14 seats.
Labour is up 31 seats. The SNP, I think they've only won one seat. It's been a horrible night for the SNP in Scotland, they're down 18. And we've only got -- just look at, for example, Scotland. That's the numbers for Scotland. Good night for the Conservatives.
There are no more seats left to be claimed in Northern Ireland, so those ten seats -- those ten seats from the Ulster union and the DUP are going to be crucial for the prime minister to get a working majority. If indeed she can do it. Remember, if she gets, say, 312, 313 seats -- that will not get her to a working majority that is satisfactory.
Of course, the United Kingdom -- this is the way it looks in the various constituencies and the various regions. The northeast has virtually all declared. The northwest is declared Labour -- very strong night in the northwest of Britain -- Liverpool, Manchester, and all of that sort of area heading up towards the Scottish borders. The east midlands, similarly, net-net they seem to fine over there.
But if the east of England -- the east of England which, remember, was heavy for leave in Brexit -- a true Brexit part of Britain. And that the Conservatives should have done better. This part of the country should have been just about all blue and it is not. The Conservatives net down two seats, whereas Labour's net up three.
[00:20:01] Put all this together -- one significant seat, just one to show you tonight -- Canterbury. If there's one seat that tells us all we need to know about the way the day went, it is Canterbury.
Canterbury has been part -- you can see it, it is right in the center of Britain. It has been Conservative since the 1920s. The current MP has been there since the early 1980s -- Jeremy Brazier, Sir Jeremy Brazier. And yet Labour manages to come in on a high turnout of 72 percent and manage to steal the seat. It's extraordinary.
Same in Scotland with Alex Salmond's seat, where the leader -- the former leader of the SNP also lost tonight. And again (inaudible) -- all these seats.
Guys, whichever way you look at it, the story of tonight is the Tories never got what they needed, and Labour always got more than they'd expected.
GORANI: And it's UKIP vote as well -- that's one of the big --
QUEST: Tragic. ROBERTS: That's why in Southampton Itchen right now -- a seat I know
very well from my own partner, Rowenna Davis' experiences as part of (inaudible) there previously, they're into their third reshuffle -- third recount of the night now. And that is because of the UKIP vote coming back to Labour.
The UKIP vote that was never meant to come back to Labour, unwinding in Labour's benefit -- and that is really extraordinary. There will be some heartbreaking scenes tonight at some of these very close recounts for all parties. And the reason for that is this unexpected UKIP effect.
QUEST: There you see it. I've called up Darlington for you on that question of the UKIP vote. The UKIP vote down ten, none of that ten by your definition, little of it should have gone to Labour, much of it didn't. I think we'll see the same in Naneton (ph) as well. Look at that Naneton -- same story. The UKIP vote carving out to Labour.
ROBERTS: Very much so. And this is something that polling missed and modeling picked up on, that the UKIP voters were behaving differently. Polling said that doesn't make any sense. We're going to wait that down. Where as modeling said, no, take the voters seriously. This is how they behaved in 2016 with Brexit. This is how they behaved in 2015 in a general election. These voters can be trusted to turn out. And these voters can be trusted to turn out in the way that they say they will.
These are working class voters who a lot of pollsters didn't believe would show up and didn't believe would make these choices, and yet they did. That's why modeling got it right; that's why polling got it wrong.
GORANI: All right. And we're expecting more key results although this is the hour where it all wraps up. And the overall national picture, the Conservatives with 298 seats, Labour with 252 so far.
QUEST: There are some bright points. Look at this, it's just reported late in the night, Stoke-on-Trent South, on a turnout, very high -- not very high turnout -- 63 percent, but up 6 percent. And the Conservatives see their share of the vote up by 16 percent.
So I'm just wondering, just off the top of your head, Marcus, any reason why Stoke-on-Trent South should be doing that? Or is it just one of those anomalies?
ROBERTS: I would say Stoke-on-Trent South, you're seeing 71 percent of the vote. So what you've got there is a combination of factors in terms of probably a dislike in that seat of Jeremy Corbyn and a belief, very strongly, in Brexit and a distrust of the Labour Party for whatever reason. Those factors come together to create such a good number.
GORANI: They still added eight percentage points.
ROBERTS: Oh, yes. And you know we're seeing that probably from the liberal Democrats and from the greens as well as from young voters and nonvoters. But that wasn't enough to outweigh those other factors.
And this is actually one of the strategic problems that the Labour Party has going forward from this position. Because the politics of Jeremy Corbyn may be absolutely brilliant to see the Labour Party into these strong second-place positions, and into challenging the Conservatives on a national basis, in the mid-200s to high 200s. But does this politics really get you into 300s? Does this really create a government? Or is this a very active, very powerful oppositional politics alone?
GORANI: How may races left?
QUEST: About 40 or I can tell it's (inaudible). I just want to say the city of Chester -- that was one of the smallest majorities going into this election. The Conservatives perhaps should have been able to take this. It has been -- it was a Labour haul tonight. But if the Tories were going to have gains, they should have taken Chester because --
ROBERTS: Exactly right.
QUEST: The Labour majority was in the low dozens I think it was.
ROBERTS: This is extremely close. Like in 2015, you're talking about 43.2 percent share of the votes to Labour, versus 43.1 percent of the vote to the Conservatives.
[00:25:05] And the fact that Labour had a good night in Chester explains why in some ways Labour had a good night across the country.
GORANI: 34 seats left to declare, with the Conservatives at 299 seats so far. They haven't broken the 300 mark yet.
QUEST: Yes -- 299.
GORANI: Exactly. They have not broken it.
ROBERTS: And with every moment and every seat declaration, Theresa May's path to any kind of government narrows -- any kind of government.
GORANI: And obviously, remember, whoever leads Britain leads the Brexit talks.
So let's get a sense of what the European Union is making of everything that's going on here right now.
Erin McLaughlin is in Brussels. It's a bit too early for official reaction, I'm sure. But this is, again creating more, or adding more uncertainty to already a very uncertain path forward for the negotiations.
ERIN MCLAUGHLIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right -- Hala. It's too early for official reaction from the likes of the European Council or the European Commission. But we are seeing some action on Twitter from members of the European parliament. I have a tweet here from a Dutch MEP Sophie in't Veld who tweeted
quote, "Cameron gambled, lost; May gambled, lost; Tory Party beginning to look like a casino." So some harsh words here in Brussels for the Conservative Party.
And while we haven't had any official reaction from the institutions as yet, I was speaking to E.U. officials yesterday and they were saying their message is very clear when it comes to this process. They are ready to go. They have their team in place. They have their mandate in place. They know what they want out of these talks.
Now all they need is a negotiating partner. Now, of course, serious questions over who that negotiating partner will be. Keep in mind, these negotiations were expected to begin in some 11 days. And the clock is ticking.
Article 50 was invoked by Theresa May in March. That means that the negotiations need to happen, need to be wrapped up by March 2019. And whatever comes out of those negotiations, the U.K. will be out of the E.U., unless the E.U. agrees to extend that deadline. So, you know, time really is of the essence here.
GORANI: Erin McLaughlin is in Brussels.
The British Prime Minister's political future as we've been discussing is hanging in the balance following a number of shock results in Thursday's election. So we have 31 seats left to declare. It's 5:27 in the morning. And hopefully all those seats will announce results -- those constituencies will announce results in the next half hour.
Just one moment -- Theresa May arrived, and I want to let our viewers know where she is -- arrived at Conservative headquarters in London as the party looks to what the future might hold. Will the MPs in her party, will the top leadership in her party support her, and support her position as prime minister if she's able to cobble together a working majority? Because after calling that snap election in the hope of increasing her parliamentary majority, it now appears that that gamble has disastrously backfired on her.
She did lose her own -- sorry, held her own seat. Oops. But she struck a defiant tone despite the overall losses for the Conservatives.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MAY: At this time, more than anything else, this country needs a period of stability. And if as the indications have shown, if this is correct, that the Conservative Party has won the most seats and probably the most votes, then it will be incumbent on us to ensure that we have that period of stability, and that is exactly what we will do.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: Well, she obviously is not having a good night. But despite not achieving a majority, another -- one man is having a great night. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go, Jeremy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: He did a lot better than the polls had predicted; currently Labour with 254 seats is outperforming expectations.
Jeremy Corbyn left his house to cheers earlier. He said Mrs. May had lost the confidence of the people and should go.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CORBYN: If there is a message from tonight's result, it's this. The Prime Minister called the election because she wanted a mandate. Well, the mandate she's got is lost Conservative seats, lost votes, lost support, and lost confidence. I would have thought that's enough to go, actually. And make way for a government that will be truly representative of all the people of this country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[00:30:00] HALA GORANI, CNN ANCHOR: And it was shock after shock after shock. The former leader of the SNP, the Scottish National Party, many of our viewers around the world are familiar with him, Alex Salmond. Well, he lost his seat.
The current party leader Nicola Sturgeon said she would be willing to enter into a coalition. Not clear, though, in the end when this is all said and done how many seats she'll get.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NICOLA STURGEON, SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTY LEADER: This is a disaster for Theresa May. You know, she called an election clearly very arrogantly thinking that she was going to crush the opposition, sweep everybody aside and cruise to a landside majority. You know, her position, I think, is very, very difficult.
You know, we would have to wait and see how things shake out. But you know, I've always said, the SNP would want to be part of political terms if that will be at the government. But, you know, there's a number of seats still to be declared.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GORANI: All right. A quick look at the results as they stand right now. And Richard, the conservatives have hit 300 seats.
RICHARD QUEST, CNN ANCHOR: Yes. But the number there to look at, Hala, is still to declare. There's 28 seats left. So to get an absolute majority in her own right, she would have to take every one of those seats, which she's clearly not going to do.
Marcus, talk us through -- why don't you talk us through the country, where those seats are. I will call out the various regions.
MARCUS ROBERTS, YOUGOV POLITICAL POLLSTER: Sure. And why don't we start with the largest remaining seats, largest is a relative number, the southeast of England.
QUEST: Yes.
ROBERTS: Where we should see six or five left now, OK? The conservatives would expect to gain most if not potentially all of those remaining five.
Let's move on to Yorkshire. There's only one seat left there, I believe. No, even that's gone. So that opportunity is gone for a conservative pickup. Next, we look at Wales. There's only one left, I believe.
GORANI: Yes.
QUEST: Yes.
ROBERTS: Very unlikely. London --
QUEST: Well, Southwest has got seven.
ROBERTS: Southwest has seven and London has five.
QUEST: London, five. Right.
ROBERTS: And you would expect Labour to take the majority in London. You would expect the conservatives to take the majority in Southwest. And when you look at the rest of the regions, the northeast, east midlands, west midlands, it will all probably be pretty much a wash.
What we can tell for that is that the conservatives probably are heading for that awkward territory between 308, 309, 315, 316.
Now, what does the parliamentary arithmetic tell us there? It tells us that if the Sinn Fein don't take their seats, that means the majority goes down from 326 to 320. It tells us if you take away the speaker and the two deputies, that brings you down to 317.
And then -- and so if you add to Theresa May's position, it would be ten MPs from the Ulster Unionists, then you get technically, technically, technically, a majority of one, two, maybe three.
But are you really going to run Brexit on a majority of one, two or three?
GORANI: Right. And Theresa May have left conservative party headquarters. And she is, I believe, already at 10 Downing Street where we find our Max Foster.
Max, bring us up-to-date.
MAX FOSTER, CNN LONDON CORRESPONDENT: It's interesting, Hala, isn't it? She didn't come in the front. She went in the back. So she's in 10 Downing Street. She's trying to figure out what happens next.
And we're just going through the numbers there. It's difficult to see how this is going to be anything but a hung parliament. But it does open the way for a potential progressive coalition led by Jeremy Corbyn. And him walking into 10 Downing Street.
We heard from Nicola Sturgeon saying that she's up for that. But you can't count the conservatives out just yet. They have got the DUP in Northern Ireland, their supporters and they've done well over there. So it could well still be a conservative government.
But whether or not Theresa May leads that is difficult to figure out right now.
We've still got extra seats to come in, of course. What it does mean, and the very clear message coming out of this is what it means for Brexit.
So Theresa May campaigned effectively for hard Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn campaigned for a soft Brexit. So staying within some sort of single market, or customs union.
His case seems to have been heard more loudly. So it does feel as though staying within the single market, if that's at all possible, is more likely now. It will mean, though, from the European perspective, that they will have to be a freedom of movement of people, which goes against the Brexit vote in the first place.
So it's very interesting to see how things are going here. But it does seem as though a soft Brexit is almost -- much more likely now than a hard Brexit. That's the message that really comes out of this.
GORANI: Max, the soft Brexit versus a hard Brexit. I mean, it depends if she stays in -- if she keeps her job.
ROBERTS: And if she wants to keep her job.
GORANI: Yes.
ROBERTS: I imagine one of the reasons why she entered through the back door just there is because she's trying to decide if she still wants to be prime minister.
[00:35:00] QUEST: How can the Tory Party -- I accept that they can do it, but go through a leadership campaign with the rules of leadership, by the nominations, and the party that, you know, you have to have the different two partner, the different candidates, and then the last two go from the country to the party, or vice versa, it's from the parliamentary side out to the --
(CROSSTALK)
ROBERTS: Indeed.
QUEST: ...to the country. How can they do that? When the negotiations on Brexit are supposed to start on June the 19th? ROBERTS: A second prime minister that Jeremy Corbyn sees out of office. Who would bet that Jeremy Corbyn would be the one outlasting conservative leaders, left, right and center?
GORANI: Right. I mean, those Brexit talks are due to start. Can we just remind everybody in 11 days, how -- how is this possible?
ROBERTS: And the United Kingdom might still be trying to work out if it can even have a government in 11 days.
GORANI: So there's no way this won't be -- I mean, this has to be delayed. How do you start negotiations, this important, without a government in place? With a working majority in power?
QUEST: Hannah Vaughan Jones is outside the houses of parliament.
Hannah Vaughan Jones, the only way forward is if she battles on regardless on a minority government, hoping somehow, you know, that there will be a supply -- what's called a confidence and supply with other parties.
HANNAH VAUGHAN JONES, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, absolutely. The most extraordinary situation which certainly Theresa May herself would not have predicted at all just seven weeks ago.
Jeremy Corbyn as you've been talking about, the Labour Party, he has had a really, really big night. And, obviously, maintaining his own seat as well. But huge gains across a lot of what was Brexit heartland, Tory heartland as well.
So it's a really strong message seemingly coming from British electorate saying that Brexit, the way that Theresa May had wanted it, that hard Brexit, that Max was just referring to, is not what the people here want.
Many questions about the way that the Torys actually put forward their campaign about their manifesto as well. Not securing necessarily the rights of EU citizens currently in Britain. And then of course British citizens currently in the EU as well.
Perhaps some questions about Tory tactics going into how this election that was actually set up for just seven weeks ago.
I want to bring in Carol Walker. She's with me now to break down the analysis of all of this. And Theresa May's future, many people on Twitter, politicians past and present saying her position is now untenable. Should she stay or should she go?
CAROL WALKER, POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, she is in a very, very difficult position. I'm hearing that she has been addressing some of the party workers, at the conservative party central office. She gave a speech in which she didn't talk about her own future. Giving them no hint yet as to whether she's going to stay. Although she did apparently talk about the need to get on with the job.
I think it will be very, very difficult indeed for her to stay on. She called this election saying that she needed a big, strong mandate for these Brexit negotiations.
She has lost seats rather than gained them. She has not got the big overall majority she wanted. And a lot of the blame for the campaign is falling on her shoulders. She was seen as somewhat wooden and robotic during the election campaign. She performed a series of u- turns.
And what is interesting, though, now is that we are hearing, yes, some conservative MPs, very angry indeed and suggesting that her position is untenable. But a couple of senior figures in the party suggesting that it would not be a good idea if she went.
Just a short time ago, I was hearing that Graham Brady, one of the most senior MPs in the House of Commons was saying that it would be self-indulgent for the conservatives to have a leadership contest at a time when there is so much at stake, so much instability, and, of course, the need to get on with these Brexit negotiations.
JONES: But that are some of the things that Richard and Hala was just talking about as well. I mean, it was only 10 days to go until these Brexit negotiations will formally commence.
Is that even practical? Is that a feasible amount of time to have a leadership contest with all of the rules of the conservative party as they stand?
WALKER: They couldn't get a conservative leadership contest done in that amount of time. There is a possibility that, for example, Boris Johnson as the foreign secretary could be the interim negotiator, or perhaps David Davis, who is, of course, at the moment the Brexit secretary.
Though both of those would be potential contenders in a conservative leadership contest.
I think the conservative party itself is going through a very difficult time. But I think it is going to be incredibly difficult for whoever does lead the country to conduct these Brexit negotiations, because he or she will have so little room to maneuver here in the House of Commons, when all the other parties will be able to gang up and block them from making concessions.
JONES: Let's look at the broader UK picture now. Scotland in particular. We've been talking about Labour gains and Tory losses. Not so in Scotland. They've had a good night in Scotland relatively as well.
But the SNP gained so many seats in the 2015 election. They've now fallen back as well.
What does this mean? What does this tell us about where Scotland stands right now?
Scotland in particular, we've been talking about Labour gains and Tory losses, not so in Scotland. They've had a good night in Scotland relatively as well. The SNP gained so many seats in the 2015 election. They've fallen back as well.
What does this tell us where Scotland stands right now?
WALKER: It is extraordinary. And Scotland has been pivotal in this campaign. Would it not for the good performance of conservative candidates and Ruth Davison, who is the conservative Scottish leader out there on the door steps, then Theresa May would definitely have lost the election completely and would be out.
We've seen very big setbacks for the SNP, the Scottish Nationalist Party. They have lost 18 seats, I think at the last count. That puts on the back burner their ambitions for a second referendum on Scottish independence.
We have seen extraordinarily the former party leader, Alex Salmond, lose his seat. Also, Angus Robertson. He is the leader of the -- has been the leader of the Scottish Nationalist Group here at Westminster. He has also lost his seat. Big figures there losing their seats. The conservatives making gains. Labour making a few gains. And the Lib Dems getting back in there as well. So a very interesting picture in Scotland.
The prospect of a Scottish referendum on the back burner. And some big questions for the SNP.
JONES: Huge questions for the SNP and where Scotland indeed goes.
You've been talking about Wales as well. We were expecting some pundits at least saying that Wales was going to turn blue for the first time since the Second World War. That hasn't happened. Labour has still held on in large part across Wales. Even though Wales is a country voted largely in favor of Brexit.
So it's interesting to see how the UK vote has been split between the Torys and Labour as well. Just a huge political earthquake is really happening here in Westminster.
It's a beautiful day starting out here. And no doubt more people will be milling out, things will (INAUDIBLE) and we'll get more reaction. But for now back to you, Hala.
QUEST: A beautiful day. I think that's a relative idea, depending on whether you're inside --
(CROSSTALK)
GORANI: Now the BBC is reporting that they're projecting a hung parliament with the Torys as the largest party. The conservatives as the largest party.
Will they, though, have a working majority? Will they be able to govern? Because listening to Theresa May even two hours ago, it appeared as though that's what she was expecting as well.
QUEST: There are 24 seats still left to declare that you can see. And if we take a look at where those 24 seats are -- in fact, if I may just have a moment and go to the wall, if I may, then I can show you exactly where those seats are, and where the -- maybe the last opportunity for the Torys.
It's not exactly to get a working majority -- well, at least to making things --
ROBERTS: Any kind of majority.
GORANI: Yes.
QUEST: Any kind of majority, quite.
OK, so this is the current situation -- 303. Now we can play with the numbers. But, basically, she's going to -- with the ten seats from the DUP, take off the speaker and the deputy speaker, that's another three seats, lose Sinn Fein, she really has to get to about 312 to 313, 10 to 13, and she may have a working majority, or just about. It's going to be ridiculously slim. But this is where the seats are.
So, first of all, and I'm going to show you where the seats are. And Perhaps, Marcus, you just shout out what likely.
London has still got three seats to declare.
ROBERTS: Should be Labour. Should be mainly Labour.
QUEST: Right. Mainly Labour. The northeast has no more seats. So like two seats to declare.
ROBERTS: Labour again.
QUEST: Labour again. The northwest of the country, one seat. Could be --
ROBERTS: Labour.
QUEST: Another Labour seat. The East Midlands has two seats.
ROBERTS: Should be conservative.
QUEST: Should be conservative. So that's a little bit of an extra seat for her.
If we go to the east of the country, there's none there. If you go to the Midwest, West Midlands, there's two seats.
ROBERTS: Should be conservative.
QUEST: Should be conservative. But this is what she's really going to be banking on.
Six seats right down here in the southwest of the country. Many of these seats count during the day, the next day, because they're extremely rural. Very difficult to get to. Although you've got, you've got Cornwall, you've got Dorsett, you've got this whole area.
Where should most of those seats go?
ROBERTS: Conservative, with maybe one or two going liberal Democrat. But expect to see her win four, five or even six.
QUEST: So of these 24 that we still have, she's not going to get that many of them. Maybe six, maybe up to a dozen, or 10 or 11 of them, which doesn't put her much beyond 310, 312, with the ten DUP and you lose the speakers under Sinn Fein, my God, as my grandfather used to say, that's no way to run a railroad.
[00:45:00] GORANI: Right. And that is no way to run Brexit talks either. How is this government, whatever government emerges, whether it has a working majority or not as the case may be, in ten days' time start negotiating one of the most important political decisions the UK has ever voted on?
ROBERTS: Almost certainly the European Union will call for Brexit talks to be delayed. It is in their interests to stir the pot. And say, you, the United Kingdom, take your time. We're in no rush. If you want to come back and rethink the whole thing, be our guest, because the reality is the reality.
At the moment we're talking about clever ways for Theresa May to reach 312, 315, maybe even 318, and add on 10 for the DUP and call it 328 for a supposed majority of two or ten, depending on how you cut the numbers.
But the reality I'm talking about, the reality, Hala that you're talking about in terms of those Brexit talks will not stand for a government trying to do the most complicated thing in British foreign policy in the post-Second World War era on a majority that doesn't really exist.
GORANI: Right. If you had the strongest and the most stable of governments, these Brexit negotiations would probably take a lot longer than two years.
Max Foster is outside 10 Downing Street with more.
Theresa May is now at 10 Downing Street. But she entered through the back door.
FOSTER: Yes, not a day for big entrances for her. She does look as though she's going to have the largest number of seats. But her position has been weakened massively. It doesn't -- it's difficult to see how she can push through the type of Brexit that she envisioned.
At the same time, Jeremy Corbyn doesn't seem to have the numbers to form a government himself. So it does look as though it will be a Tory government. It will need the support from the DUP in Northern Ireland. It's all about where we go from here. Whether or not Theresa May stays in position.
We've got Ruth Davidson, conservative party leader, up in Scotland. She's the only sort of member of the conservative party that seems to be strong today, because the conservatives did do well there. It does paint this picture of a conservative party in absolute disarray. This is the second failed gamble by a Tory prime minister.
David Cameron, of course, called it wrong with Brexit. And Now Theresa May calling it wrong on a mandate for Brexit which is how all of this started in the first place.
So she's in the building. She'll be considering how to move on from here, how to message it. She's going to stay in position. We heard from her earlier talking about stability being what this country needed, which suggests that she wants to stay in position. But it's whether or not, you know, the Tory hierarchy will support her in that, Hala.
GORANI: So, do we know when we'll hear from Theresa May next? And what she might say? I mean, is her job in jeopardy at this stage, Max?
FOSTER: Her job is in jeopardy in the sense that she took a gamble which absolutely failed. I mean, the conservatives will most likely still be in government. But the very reason she started this whole process was to get a stronger mandate to go into Brexit negotiations. And what she's actually done is weakened the mandate. So she's failed in what she set out to do.
Also, during the campaign, she didn't perform well. She looked uncomfortable on the campaign trail. She made some mistakes on policy, social policy in particular. And then the terror attacks where she should have been seen as a strong leader. Didn't necessarily help her in the polls either. So she hasn't had a good campaign. She's had a disastrous campaign.
Jeremy Corbyn, though, has come across as authentic and strong. And has risen this wave of support in just a very short campaign. And that's interesting for the Labour Party as well, because the moderates in the party, the likes of Tony Blair and his supporters were behind Jeremy Corbyn.
Now they're going to have to reconsider their positions, because he's emboldened and a serious player now in British politics.
GORANI: Max Foster, thanks very much.
Let's remind our viewers the BBC has forecast a hung parliament here in Britain, with Torys projected to be the largest party, but not necessarily -- well, certainly not obtaining a technical majority, but perhaps managing a working majority.
Explain.
QUEST: All right. This is how I managed to do it.
Look, 650 MPs in parliament, OK? Let's take off three for the -- two deputies, so 647. The seven Sinn Fein, let's make sure we got the number right, the seven Sinn Fein will not take their seats. That means 640 seats.
We divide that by 2, and we see 320. So she needs 321, all right, 321 to get a majority. A working majority. The DUP has 10. That's 310. So the prime minister needs 310 just to be able --
(CROSSTALK)
[00:50:00] GORANI: Sorry, go ahead. No, no, but six more seats from the -- currently they're at 305. Six more seats and she gets a working majority.
Six more seats and she gets the potential of a working majority, assuming everything else -- nobody's sick, nobody dies, there's violent --
ROBERTS: The DUP play ball.
QUEST: The DUP don't extract a terrible price.
GORANI: Well, yes, that's all very true. I mean, it's a complicated and very, very uncertain picture for Theresa May for her party and for the country now.
ROBERTS: Absolutely. And what it leads to is this question that hangs over the whole constitutionality of the British stage, and its foreign policy, which is Brexit. And how can you possibly do Brexit under these conditions.
And that is, I think, one of the things that she's trying to decide right now, as she contemplates whether she wants to continue as prime minister.
GORANI: And it's not just Brexit. I mean, obviously we saw that this was a multi-issue vote for Britain. It's also the NHS, the National Health Care. It's security. They had two big terrorist attacks in this country over the span of two weeks, two and a half weeks -- no, actually less than two weeks I should say. And so therefore, all these big important -- the budget, how do you do all of that --
ROBERTS: The terrorism, the inflation, when she has liberals in her own party who wouldn't want to pass draconian new laws. And any number of important issues, she simply would not have a majority, even if all of those remaining seats broke for her.
QUEST: So the phrase that comes to mind is mandate. There is clearly no mandate for a prime minister who went into the election saying she was seeking a mandate for a stable, strong position to negotiate.
Every one of her negotiating partners can turn around to her in Brussels and say, actually, prime minister, far from strengthening your hand, the British electorate have rejected you. Because you gave them the chance to strengthen your hand, and they didn't.
GORANI: At the very last minute, we heard from Theresa May, essentially, you know, talking about the possibility of rolling back some human rights legislation in order to combat terrorism. Perhaps a very last-ditch effort to get those votes of people who might be concerned for their safety after the terrorist attacks. But clearly that didn't work. It didn't work. QUEST: So a technical -- with the current state of the parties, they need to win every one of the next 21 seats, which, of course, they won't, to avoid a hung parliament. So we can pretty much definitively say it is a technical hung parliament, although the prime minister by slate of electoral magic and deal doing back room nonsense could eke out technical majority.
ROBERTS: A majority on the calculator apps of our phone is not a majority in the House of Commons. And that is the reality that is going to shape Brexit, the budget, counterterrorism legislation, the NHS, on any and every issue, we will be struggling between the contrast of what is theoretically possible and what is politically practicable.
QUEST: Never forget that the Tory party -- I mean, I won't use the word that (INAUDIBLE) used to describe his back bench, he called them the B.
ROBERTS: The B word.
QUEST: And never forget, you know, that there is this rump of the party that is going to want the hardest Brexit, the John Redwoods of this world, the Michael Gove and even the (INAUDIBLE) to some extent. And they are going to want to actually get that.
ROBERTS: And "The Daily Telegraph" Juliet Samuels has been very good on this actual issue of pointing out just how hard a Brexit could be created by an imperilled May majority, or imperilled May minority government. It's worth checking out her tweets on this one.
GORANI: Richard, some more key results as we look at the national picture with 20 seats still to declare, the conservatives with 306.
QUEST: I want to show you some marginal seats because these are the ones that the Torys had to win if they were going to make a good night. They had to take where they didn't. Labour actually saw the majority going up by nine.
They had to take the city of Chester. They didn't. This was the smallest majority in the country. And the Torys failed to take it. But then it's not just -- look at the significant seats, the ones that we've identified as being called for the night.
[00:55:00] Take Putney, for example. This was Justine Greening's seat. Barely held on to it. Barely. Barely able to do this.
Breaking news, just for pause, Hala, it's officially a hung parliament. The Torys can no longer -- the Torys -- I'm going to show you the actual numbers to make it absolutely clear so that you're in no doubt whatsoever.
OK, the Torys cannot get enough seats to win a majority. Bearing in mind the results that have come in so far. So it is officially a hung parliament, with potentially the Torys having a quasi working majority by wrapping in the DUP, and any other party that they can manage to get along. So, Hala, officially, a hung parliament tonight.
GORANI: Yes. Checking out the pound. Trading -- when does trading kick off usually in the UK? 8:00 a.m.?
QUEST: No, they will trade about now. You'll start to see London kicking at 6:00 in the morning.
ROBERTS: The hung parliament. The thing that the pundits said couldn't happen, the thing that the majority of the British pollsters said couldn't happen, the thing that YouGov said in its MRP modelling consistently was going to happen over the last ten days is occurring. And with it, chaos in the British constitutional system.
QUEST: Yes. And I foolishly, half an hour before we went on air, foolishly --
GORANI: Very, very foolishly.
QUEST: When our executive producer --
GORANI: Without a second source.
QUEST: Jill Dale (ph) said she thought it might be a hung parliament. I said, don't be ridiculous. I will bet, a one-way bet, dinner in any restaurant, anywhere in the world, and I will fly you there to have dinner.
ROBERTS: Jill was betting on dinner, thanks to YouGov. You should have bet on dinner.
GORANI: It was a one-way pass. She wasn't asking for anything, you just made the offer.
QUEST: Listen, whilst we are pouring over the remnants of this election, Jill is pouring over the travel brochures, in the most expensive restaurants anywhere in the world.
ROBERTS: She was thinking French Laundry in San Francisco. It's going to be wonderful. It's not so wonderful for your credit card, Richard.
GORANI: Yes. Enjoy your trip to Fiji.
QUEST: Hey, hey, I never said she had -- I was going to fly her business class. Norwegian, Olympus, it's a very nice flight. These are difficult times, austerity Britain.
GORANI: Speaking of austerity, that's one of the things Jeremy Corbyn said when he addressed his supporters, enough with the austerity.
Your know, this Labour Party is emboldened now to try to get some of its important sort of agenda items through, despite the fact Corbyn is unpopular with his own MPs, he's popular with a huge chunk of his base. ROBERTS: Oh, yes. And the earthquake of this represents in Labour politics can't be underestimated. Many Labour commentators, many Labour MPs, many pollsters, myself included, believe that what we're seeing in terms of Jeremy Corbyn's popularity in achieving 40 percent of the vote or even more was highly improbable to put it politely, if not impossible, or even stronger to put it realistically. And yet Corbyn has achieved this.
The problem is, he's achieved 40 percent of the vote, and he hasn't gone over the 300 mark.
GORANI: Right.
So at these politics, the most radical, most left-wing politics they could imagine only takes them this far. What kind of politics would actually take them to government? And that's a strategic problem for the Labour Party's future.
GORANI: Marcus, thank you so much.
ROBERTS: It's been great pleasure.
GORANI: Marcus Roberts for being with us all these hours.
Now a quick recap. A hung parliament. Theresa May made a bet. Gambled it all and it backfired in a disastrous way for her. The conservatives currently with 307 seats.
QUEST: If you look at the numbers, it is now just about mathematically impossible, bearing in mind those seats that still have to declare that we know will go to Labour. It is mathematically impossible for the conservatives to reach a majority in their own right.
A possible working majority might be done with a deal with some of the smaller parties from Northern Ireland. But whichever way we look at it tonight. The idea of stability that the prime minister talked about, the idea of a mandate is simply not true tonight. It's not going to happen.
GORANI: And if the conservatives cannot achieve a working majority, who will govern this country, and a reminder, everybody, Brexit negotiations are supposed to start in ten days.
Richard?
QUEST: Wonderful being with you this evening, Hala.
GORANI: Absolutely wonderful being with you as well. And great being with all of you, watching us for this important story as it develops, I'm Hala Gorani.
QUEST: I'm Richard Quest. Because the news never stops, neither do we. This is CNN.
Max Foster is in Downing Street. FOSTER: I'm Max Foster in 10 Downing Street. Theresa May is inside.
