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North Korean Nuclear Warhead; U.N. Security Council Resolution; U.S. Response to North Korea. Interviews with Max Baucus, Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) and Rep. John Garamendi (D-CA). Aired 1-1:30p ET

Aired August 08, 2017 - 13:00   ET

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WOLF BLITZER, CNN HOST: Hello, I'm Wolf Blitzer. It's 1:00 p.m. here in Washington, 6:00 p.m. in London, 1:30 a.m. Wednesday in Pyongyang, North Korea. Wherever you're watching from around the world, thanks very much for joining us.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

BLITZER: We're following breaking news. The stakes in the North Korea nuclear crisis just got higher. "The Washington Post" now reporting, quoting U.S. intelligence officials as having concluded that Pyongyang is already making missile-ready nuclear weapons.

So, let's go -- immediately go to our Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr. Barbara, this would be a major, major breakthrough in North Korea's nuclear capability if they had miniaturized these nuclear bombs so they could fit on these intercontinental ballistic missiles?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: That is absolutely right, Wolf. "The Washington Post" reporting a short time ago, and let me quote from them according to a U.S. intelligence assessment, North Korea, quote, "has successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles."

So, why is this so important? Because this is one of the key steps that North Korea's been trying to achieve and the U.S. has been trying to determine if they've made it.

Miniaturizing a warhead, putting it inside a missile, means that you do have a functioning warhead that can be delivered, fired, a great distance on a missile.

So, now we're beginning to see the whole package coming together. Intercontinental ballistic missiles that can fire at targets some 5,000 miles away. Potentially attack the U.S. guidance systems, targeting.

They still have a lot of work to do on that. And the miss -- the warhead on the front end. That miniaturized warhead that would have to be small and light enough to be inside a missile.

There are technical challenges ahead for the North Koreans. They need to work by all accounts on their targeting and in specifically on what's called re-entry.

When you fire one of these ballistic missiles, you fire it high into the atmosphere. It comes back down. It reenters. It's under tremendous heat and pressure. You have to have a missile, a front stage and a warhead that can survive all of that heat, and that can be directed to a specific target.

So, there's a lot to be considered here that the North Koreas may still have to accomplish. But make no mistake. No one is entirely sure that the North Koreans are too fussed about worries about any of that. They have a rigorous, aggressive test program for their weapons.

The question now, perhaps, is Kim Jong-Un's motivation in the coming weeks and months. Is he on the path that he claims he's on to try and attack the west? Is he looking basically to have all of this as a card to hold over the head of the west and get some sanctions relief, get some type of incentives that he wants?

The problem for the president of the United States is, there's no way around it. This is now a nuclear threat. The threat that President Trump and presidents before him have said they would not allow to happen -- Wolf.

BLITZER: And if this were not enough -- and clearly this is a major development. If this were not enough, Barbara, "The Washington Post" also reporting now, citing this new defense intelligence agency assessment.

Beyond the miniaturized nuclear warheads, they're now suggesting that North Korea may already have, according to "The Washington Post," up to 60 nuclear weapons now controlled by the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un. Sixty nuclear bombs is a lot more than many of the earlier estimates had put forward.

STARR: It is a number that is higher than we had generally been told about. Obviously, quite classified. I think that the most important thing to say right now is, one can only assume the U.S. Intelligence community does not have absolute certainty about any of this. All of this is an assessment and has been for years.

North Korea, of course, extremely closed. It doesn't let outsiders in. They are said to be getting help from the Russians and the Chinese. They may not what's going on.

But the U.S. relies on satellite intelligence, overhead imagery, radar emissions, electronic emissions in the air that it might be able to pick up from radars or other test equipment. The infrared signals coming -- infrared images coming from areas that may be very warm compared to the atmosphere, because there's testing or activity going on there.

[13:05:12] The U.S., for years, has been in the position of putting the bits and pieces of the puzzle together and making assumptions.

And the U.S. military -- you know, we always talked about these options on the table. One of the reasons the U.S. military has the options on the stable is for this very reason. To be able to give any president of the United States options on the day he calls for them. Because you cannot be sure.

U.S. intelligence watching the peninsula around the clock but constantly making these assessments. It has been the case for many years now.

There has been an assumption, a planning assumption, that North Korea could do all of this, because commanders like to say, you know, plan for the worst; hope for the best. But they have definitely planned against the worst-case scenario.

Now the question today -- where is the program? What is its actual real status? What is the assumption that is being briefed to the president of the United States? What advice is he getting from his military commanders and his intelligence professionals?

We know President Trump takes this matter very seriously. He may well now be the president in office that will have to deal with North Korea -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Yes, the -- clearly emerging as the major national security threat facing the United States right now. That's what President Obama told the incoming president, President Trump, would be that major national security threat.

Clearly now emerging with this "Washington Post" report, suggesting that North Korea has the capability now of miniaturizing nuclear warheads and may already have 60 nuclear bombs. It follows the successful launch of their intercontinental ballistic missiles that potentially could hit the continental United States.

Barbara, I want you to stand by. I want to go to CNN's Will Ripley. He's visited North Korea a dozen times over the past few years. Will is joining us from Beijing right now.

A lot of experts thought if the North Koreans, A, developed an intercontinental missile ballistic capability, they clearly they developed that, the next step would be these miniaturized nuclear warheads. "The Washington Post" suggesting they have done that.

And now, this report suggesting they may already have 60 nuclear bombs. It seems to be moving very quickly, Will?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And it's remarkable, when you think about it. I first traveled into the country in late 2014. And back then, North Korean officials were speaking very confidently about their country's nuclear program.

Remember that Kim Jong-Un had written into North Korea's Constitution that they -- it's a national priority to become a full-fledged nuclear power. But for a long-time, outside observers thought North Korea was many, many years away from achieving that.

And, yet now, here we are with the likelihood, according to U.S. analysts, that North Korea's claims have now come to light. That they are in possession of a miniaturized nuclear warhead that could fit on an intercontinental ballistic missile. A ballistic missile that, according to those who studied the capabilities of the two that were launched in July, could strike anywhere along the U.S. west coast, Denver, Chicago.

And perhaps in a matter of months, they could have an ICBM. They could also strike New York and Washington.

Now, remember, it was last year in March that North Korea released images of their leader standing in front of that metallic orb that they claimed was a miniaturized nuclear warhead. And there was a lot of skepticism at that time that those claims were accurate.

But now, things have changed so dramatically, it really does show the rapid pace. And it's been remarkable to be inside the country.

I was there back in June, speaking with officials about this. And there is a real sense of urgency there to develop these weapons, because they look at the United States and South Korea and now Japan as well, participating in military exercises on the Korean Peninsula just a few miles from their borders.

And they feel that those military exercises are a dress rehearsal for some kind of invasion. They don't believe the United States. They don't believe secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, when he says that the U.S. doesn't want to invade.

North Korean citizens have been told their whole lives that, one, America started the Korean War which goes against what every other outside historian says. And, two, that America could attack again and that's why their country must invest a considerable amount of its scant resources developing these weapons.

And now, you have these new sanctions that have just passed, that China is promising to enforce, that could cut North Korean exports by a billion dollars, roughly a third.

But yet, those sanctions will take a long time to even start to take effect. And North Korea, now months away from having this kind of a weapon, Wolf. A weapon that they have never had before. This is truly unprecedented.

They always had a lot of conventional weapons that could do a lot of damage on the Korean Peninsula if they opened fire with their artillery on South Korea. They're believed to have chemical weapons in their possession as well.

[13:10:06] But they have never had, until now, an ICBM that could take a miniaturized nuclear warhead and potentially threaten the mainland United States.

BLITZER: Yes, a huge, huge development. If, in fact, this report in "The Washington Post" is accurate, citing the defense intelligence agency's last assessment over at the Pentagon. Will, I want you to stand by as well. I want to bring in our Military Analyst Retired Colonel Cedric Leighton and retired Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona and retired Major General James Spider Marks.

Let's talk a little about this. And, Spider, let me start with you. If this "Washington Post" report is true, it seems like the North Korean military, Kim Jong-Un's regime, has moved very, very quickly to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile with a miniaturized nuclear warhead and may already have, according to "The Washington Post," as many as 60 nuclear bombs?

MAJ. GEN. JAMES SPIDER MARKS, U.S. ARMY (retired): Yes, Wolf. Let's make a couple of assumptions here. Number one, that the report is accurate. That the number of weapons that they have is accurate as well.

But also bear in mind that these estimates are essentially that, that they are estimates. But you have -- as Barbara indicated, you have to plan for the very, very worst in this.

However, this is not an estimate that is suddenly -- we didn't turn on a switch and suddenly realize that this capability exists. This has been a linear progression on the part of the North Koreans for quite some time. And the United States intelligence community, in concert with a number of allies, have been able to track this very, very clearly.

What this does is it makes the imminence of an attack by North Korea that much higher because it now has a capability. Not just an intention to use something that might be in development, but we have to assume that it's accurate. That the report is accurate. That they have a capability and that now the United States has a full array of options that it has to be able to use. And it raises the specter of a potential conflict.

Now, everybody on the peninsula has been preparing for this kind of engagement for quite some time. And so, there are measured heads that are in charge there. And, clearly, our national command authority understands the severity.

So, the key thing is to ensure that our communications are open with Beijing. The pathway to Pyongyang is through Beijing. We have to be able to share this intelligence, make sure that the Chinese concur that our assessment is correct.

And now, we have to have direct end treaties with the regime in Pyongyang that says, look, guys, this is as serious as it gets. You've been getting away with this for the longest time, because we've been able to have strategic patience. The window is now closing. You're now a potential big boy at the table. You need to act like a big boy which means with strength, protocols, inspections, et cetera.

BLITZER: Yes, all the experts, all the military analysts, were expecting for this to develop in the years to come. I think what is a big surprise, it's moving as quickly as it has. Rick Francona, let me read you "The Washington Post" saying that North Korea has successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles, and then cites this defense intelligence agency report.

And I'll read to you from the report. According to "The Washington Post," the I.C. intelligence community assesses North Korea has produced nuclear weapons for ballistic missile delivery to include delivery by ICBM-class missiles.

What's your reaction when you hear this report?

LT. COL. RICK FRANCONA (retired), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, this compresses the U.S. decision cycle down to almost nothing. Everybody was hoping that these two technologies that the North Koreans were working on, the missile technology, which we could observe very closely. Because as they test and we gather a lot of information on the capability.

What was more difficult was to assess the capability to develop this miniaturized nuclear warhead which is the second piece of it. And when you marry those two technologies, then you have a real capability.

It appears that if this is true, the North Koreans have achieved that capability. Whereas, we thought in the past that we had some time to let diplomacy work, to let the economic sanctions work. That decision cycle has almost collapsed, and now we're faced with a North Korea that could potentially launch a missile in a very short period of time.

And as Barbara was telling us earlier that, you know, the military options that are presented to the president really are not that good. Because if you assume that all the other North Korean technologies have matured -- and I'm speaking particularly about this mobile launch capability. They could roll one of these things out and launch it far before we could react to it.

So, I think it's a major development, and this is going to set off alarm bells throughout not only the Pentagon but the entire U.S. government.

[13:15:00] BLITZER: And it certainly will and it already is.

Cedric Leighton, you've had a lot of experience, reading these intelligence assessments, the DIA assessment where they say they assess North Korea has produced nuclear weapons for ballistic missile delivery. How reliable, how accurate are these DIA estimates based on your experience?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, Wolf, the accuracy varies. And it really depends on the target and the kinds of things that we're looking at and what kind of sources we have in the intelligence world. And as far as Korea itself is concerned, the assessments have been pretty accurate with the one big exception of knowing whether or not they've been able to miniaturize a nuclear warhead. And if this report is true, and like we're all assuming it is, then we have a significant game-changer here.

The intelligence community often is guilty of mirror imaging what it sees in its own society, and in things that it expects to happen. And sometimes we don't look very well at things that are surprises, frankly. So that's the big danger here. I think, though, that in this particular case, this DIA assessment is probably pretty close to being accurate.

BLITZER: Yes, it's pretty shocking, too, when you think of the timeline, how quickly all of this has unfolded.

I want all of you -- all of our CNN military analysts to stand by.

We've got a special guest right now for some more perspective. I want to bringing in the former United States ambassador to China, the former Democratic senator from Montana, Max Baucus.

Mr. Ambassador, thanks so much for joining us.

First, let me get your reaction to the breaking news we're following here. "The Washington Post" reporting that the U.S. intelligence community now assesses that North Korea has produced nuclear weapons for ballistic missile delivery to include delivery of these ICBM-class missiles. Are you surprised? How dangerous is this situation right now?

MAX BAUCUS, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO CHINA: I'm not terribly surprised. I think we Americans tend to underestimate the capability and intelligence of people in other countries. We're a bit arrogant, at least on the margin.

Second, I think it's noteworthy that China is stepping up its role as a potential leader in trying to resolve this, joining Russia at the U.N. That's noteworthy. These are very great additional sanctions, that's noteworthy. President Wang Yi, the foreign minister of China, made it very clear how upset China now is with North Korea. That's helpful because that was not the case when I was serving as ambassador in China.

Next, I think it's important that Secretary Tillerson is signaling that we're not intent on regime change. Kim Jong-un, in my judgment, is not in a nut case. He's not crazy. He's very rational. He's very smart. And he's doing all of this to build up his power to negotiate later on with the world. And I think the goal here is for the United States to keep the pressure up at all levels, U.N. and other countries, not just countries in the region, because if there's a cataclysmic result here, it's going to affect the world. That is getting the European countries involved. And the same time we've got to begin to back door it. Work with third countries to find some ways to start to talk with the Kim regime. In all the ways that are possible here. Once we start opening up some, maybe even indirect line of communication, that's going to help, along with the additional pressure, including additional pressure from China.

BLITZER: We know China voted for the U.N. Security Council resolution that was unanimously approved, including Russia, 15-0. But there's still a lot of concern, as you know, Mr. Ambassador, that China might not deliver. Do you think the Chinese now, the Chinese government, will deliver, will squeeze the North Korean regime into slowing down at a minimum, freezing its nuclear capabilities?

BAUCUS: Well, when I as serving in Beijing, China was not living to up its words. Coal exports were still coming into China and seafood, et cetera. They were not living up to the promise and to the resolution.

However, I do think now that China's beginning to ratchet up its pressure on North Korea. China does not want a bad result. China does not want a peninsula -- unified peninsula that -- under the control of basically South Korea and the U.S. So they're going to want a result. And the result, I think, in some way to take the heat off this nuclearization, the missile development, in a way that allows Kim to stay in power, or a successor to stay in power, and diffuse it that way.

China is, I think, finally getting more upset. And China sees this as an opportunity to be a little bit more of a leader in the world. When we backed away from the Paris Accords, China stepped in. When we over at Davos, President Xi Jinping said that, you know, China wants to be a major player in the world. China's developing. They're becoming a little more confident. They're a little more certain of themselves and this is a bit of an opportunity for China now to step in where they have not in the past.

[13:20:13] BLITZER: Ambassador Max Baucus, the former U.S. ambassador to China, thanks for joining us.

BAUCUS: You bet.

BLITZER: Let me bring in Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin from New York right now. He's a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. He served in the U.S. Army in Iraq.

This is startling news that we're getting from "The Washington Post," congressman. First of all, what's your reaction that North Korea now has successfully, according to "The Washington Post," produced this miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside it's intercontinental ballistic missiles?

REP. LEE ZELDIN (R), NEW YORK: Assuming everything is true, including that intelligence assessment both existing and everything being accurate, there still are some important unknowns. It's been discussed so far on your program recently about the ability for that nuclear warhead to survive the re-entry from the upper atmosphere. That is, it would be great to know that as well.

For those who are listening, I mean this development, this news is something that you can be concerned about. It increases the urgency, the time sensitivity for all of our efforts that are going on.

To add additional context to what the international community and the United States is involved with, one is a few days ago the United Nations implementing what were a massive sanctions regime. It was significant not just for the size of the sanctions package, but also the unanimous vote that included Russia and China.

The North Koreans have about $3 billion a year with exports. This is estimated to be over one-third of that. So that's significant. The vote is as well as the size.

Additionally, the United States military has been refining our capabilities to be able to strike down intercontinental ballistic missiles, which included a recent successful test just a few months ago. So the United States and the international community has been on top of it. Obviously the timeline here is starting to condense quite a bit as the additional news of what North Korea is developing comes along.

BLITZER: As you know, North Korea -- the North Korean regime of Kim Jong-un, in the past day or so, they've promised major retaliation for the latest U.N. Security Council sanctions against the United States, that they would hit the U.S. Do you believe them?

ZELDIN: Well, I don't -- you know, I don't know yet whether or not they actually have the ability to do so. Obviously today's news is an indication that they are at least if true a lot closer to having that ability. I think that the -- the words to have come from Kim Jong-un and the regime over the course of the last few days is really an indication of just how significant the actions at the United States were just a few days back.

We in the United States operate under the principle of DIME, diplomacy, information, military economics. We want multilateral diplomacy. We want to ramp up economic pressure on the North Koreans. And also the information campaign of letting the North Korean know that their leader is putting them in a very dangerous position and the North Korean people are still very much in awe of Kim Jong-un as being larger than life, not realizing just how much he's responsible for the bad conditions that they have to live under.

So all of our options have including China taking a leadership role. It's hard to put economic pressure on the North Koreans without China. And, ultimately, at the last possible option, and one that we don't want to have to use, is having a full range of options known of conventional to unconventional of the "m" of DIME, for military. That is a last possible option. And hopefully what we saw at the United Nations are an indication of just how effective we can be with the potential that we've known of, but haven't been able to really fulfill because of China's unfortunate role in it.

BLITZER: But do you believe -- do you believe China is really -- do you -- do you -- congressman, do you believe China is really going to live up to this commitment? Because in the past they haven't.

ZELDIN: The past track record hasn't been good. The United States is in a position as it relates to multilateral diplomacy and economic pressure to rely on China. It's really just a few days old since China passed -- they did vote for what happens at the Security Council. So we want to -- we need to give them that opportunity. Although, as we see from today's news, that opportunity for China to do right is one that needs to be tested imminently because we don't really have time. This is becoming more urgent and more time sensitive as the days go on.

BLITZER: Congressman Lee Zeldin of New York, thanks for joining us.

ZELDIN: Thank you, Wolf.

BLITZER: I want to get a different perspective. Maybe a similar perspective. Democratic Congressman John Garamendi is joining us right now from California. He was just recently in South Korea visiting U.S. troops.

[13:25:07] So what's your reaction to this story in "The Washington Post" and for viewers here in the United States and around the world, congressman, who are just tuning in? "The Washington Post" now reporting that North Korea has successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles. It cites a DIA, a Defense Intelligence Committee, assessment that North Korea has produced nuclear weapons for ballistic missile delivery to include delivery by ICBM class missiles.

Congressman, your reaction?

REP. JOHN GARAMENDI (D), CALIFORNIA: Obviously, very serious, but not unexpected. We've known for some time this is where North Korea wanted to go. We didn't anticipate they'd be there quite this fast. Obviously this dovetails with their intercontinental ballistic missile program. It is serious.

But at the same time, it's not -- this is an opportunity and really a necessity for us to take a deep breath and to figure out what a long- term, comprehensive strategy has to be put in place. The elements are all there. The U.N. resolution, extremely important because it brings China and Russia and the other members of the Security Council in lockstep to put pressure on North Korea. We have to let that mature.

Also, Secretary of State Tillerson opened the door to negotiations, starting with no preconditions, and then it seems as though a precondition has been added, and that had to do with the continuation of the ballistic missile technology. Not less --

BLITZER: Well, let me stop you on that. Let me stop you on that front --

GARAMENDI: Sure.

BLITZER: Because, as you know, Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, was just in Manila for this summit of Asian countries, Pacific leaders.

GARAMENDI: Right.

BLITZER: The North Korean foreign minister was there as well. The North Korean foreign minister met with the foreign minister of South Korea.

GARAMENDI: Right. BLITZER: Met with the foreign minister of Russia. Did not meet with Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state. Was that a missed opportunity in your opinion?

GARAMENDI: No, not at all. The opportunity was that the -- previously, the foreign minister of North Korea didn't talk to anybody. But now those discussions are underway circling around. The United States not yet involved. But the opportunity to get serious discussions underway appears to be in the offing. And that's what we have to pursue.

We also need to understand, and try to figure out exactly what it is that North Korea wants. It appears, in all cases, that North Korea wants to assure their -- the continuation of the Kim Jong-un regime. This is the third generation.

BLITZER: But they also say -- they also say, congressman, the North Korean statements that have come out over the past few days, they will never give up their nuclear weapons program, they're not going to walk away from this at all. They're going to -- they're basically telling all the countries of the region, including the United States, live with it.

GARAMENDI: Well, we're not about to live with it, nor is China, Russia, Japan and the neighboring communities. Let's be clear here, that nuclear threat is as much a threat to the -- in fact, more of a threat to the surrounding neighbors than it is to the United States. We do have a missile defense system that would be effective against North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles. The neighborhood does not. And so everybody in that region has the same interest, that is to prevent North Korea from having and then utilizing their nuclear weapons.

So we're all in this game together, and that's extremely important because that then leads to the kind of negotiations that we have to engage North Korea on. Will they give up their nuclear weapons? That's why you negotiate to find if there is a way to achieve that. There are many ways. And Mr. Tillerson -- Secretary Tillerson said it well, we're not into regime change. That's important in any negotiation. That sets one of the things that are on the table for future discussion.

BLITZER: So when -- so question -- congressman, so when administration officials say the president has all options available, all options are on the table right now. You're an expert in this area. You've been to the region several times.

GARAMENDI: Sure.

BLITZER: Do you really believe that the military option, a pre-emptive military strike against North Korea, is realistic?

GARAMENDI: Well, it's certainly the very last thing you ever want to do because it will set off a huge, devastating war in that region that might very well involve nuclear weapons. It would certainly be a major, major problem, a disaster really, if we ever have to go that way. That's why these sanctions are extremely important in that they do put pressure on North Korea.

[13:29:53] Obviously it caused Kim Jong-un to come out with what are some very wild, extreme statements about wiping out the United States. Well, first of all, there's no way he can wipe out the United States. He can certainly cause a lot of problems, more to the neighborhood than to the United States. And there-in lies, I think, the reason that China, Russia and others are saying, OK, enough, we've got