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WORLD RIGHT NOW WITH HALA GORANI

Trump; No Mixed Messages On North Korea; Trump: Maybe My 'Fury' Threat Wasn't Tough Enough; Lead Challenger Odinga Appeals For Peace. Aired 3-4p ET

Aired August 10, 2017 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[15:00:00] DAVID ROHDE, ONLINE NEWS DIRECTOR, THE NEW YORKER: -- the South Korea would want us to act militarily. So, I agree in that every other,

you know, the recent administrations have not solved this problem, it's a crucial problem.

But I worry the president has backed himself into a corner where he's constantly saying how he will use military force against, you know, North

Korea and, you know, some of his own military commanders have warned that they will not be able to take out all of these artillery pieces, all of the

nuclear weapons themselves.

So, you know, again, he doesn't want to reveal his strategy. It's -- it is confusing to me. And it's not clear, you know, badgering China, you know,

where does this get him. It is a different message happening in private, but in public, I don't hear a clear strategy.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: And Trent, real quick, what -- who is -- where is the ball? In which court right now, is it in the president's court, is

it in North Korea's court, is it in China's court, where are we left with this new stable with the president?

TRENT DUFFY, FORMER DEPUTY PRESS SECRETARY FOR PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH: I think it's in the world community's court. And that's where it should be.

This is a real global problem and it has to be addressed by a lot of the factors that we're discussing. I mean, I think the president is discussing

China and the trade lever because that represent something that he can pull a shoot pool. So, it's in the global community, that's where it should be.

BOLDUAN: All right. Big day, as it always is, thank you all so much, I really appreciate it. This is the STATE OF AMERICA tonight, we're going to

see you back here.

Tomorrow, "THE WORLD RIGHT NOW" with Hala Gorani begins. Hi, Hala.

HALA GORANI, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you very much, Kate. Indeed, a big day. One big day after another these days with breaking news, once again, this

hour in the past few minutes. Donald Trump has said his comments on North Korea may not have been tough enough, the fire and fury comments of a

couple of days ago.

The U.S. president, just minutes ago, met with his national security team and he addressed reporters and took questions. And said it's about time

someone stood up for the United States. Listen to the president.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Hello, everybody. We're having some meetings. I know you're going to be watching a couple of it.

We have a lot of people here today. A lot of subjects under discussion including Venezuela, including, of course, North Korea and other things.

And I think we're making tremendous headway. We'll be spending quite a bit of time here and then we -- during the weekend, as you know, toward the

end, we're going to Manhattan. We have a lot of meetings scheduled in Manhattan.

Any questions?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mr. President, what's the (INAUDIBLE) statement on Tuesday was nonsense, that's the word that they use. Do you have any

response to that?

TRUMP: Well, I don't think they mean that. And I think they -- it's the first time they've heard like they heard it. And frankly, the people that

were questioning that statement wasn't too tough -- maybe wasn't tough enough. They've been doing this in our country for a long time, for many

years. And it's about time that somebody stack up for the people of this country and for the people of other countries.

So, if anything, maybe, that statement wasn't tough enough and we're backed by a 100% by our military, we're backed by everybody. And we're backed by

many other leaders. And I noticed that many senators and others that it came out very much in favor of what I said. But if anything, that

statement may not be tough enough.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What would you (INAUDIBLE)?

TRUMP: Well, you'll see. You'll see.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mr. President, is one of the options you consider (INAUDIBLE)?

TRUMP: We don't talk about that. I never do. I'm not like the other administration that would say, we're going in to Mosul in four months. I

don't talk about it. We'll see what happens.

But I can tell you that what they've been doing and what they've been getting away with is a tragedy, and it can't be allowed.

(OFF-MIC)

TRUMP: Sure. We'll always consider negotiations. But, they've been negotiating now for 25 years. Look at Clinton, he folded on the

negotiations. He was weak and ineffective. You look what happened with Bush, you look what happened with Obama. Obama, he didn't want to talk

about it. But I talk. It's about time somebody has to do it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GORANI: President Donald Trump there meeting, as I mentioned, with his national security team. It would appear they're taking reporters'

questions with the Vice President Mike Pence.

Some of the things he said about North Korea that that fire and fury statement that he made at his Bedminster New Jersey Golf Club after a

meeting that day after it emerged that North Korea, according to some intelligence officials and sources, had potentially figured out a way to

miniaturize a nuclear warhead to fit on a longer range ballistic missile.

He talked about fire and fury that would rain down upon North Korea in a way that the world had never seen. I want to ask about that statement.

Donald Trump said, well, perhaps it didn't go far enough. He also said about North Korea that it can be "very, very nervous and they should be

very nervous because things will happen to them like they never thought possible".

We're covering all sides of this developing story.

[15:05:01] Will Ripley is in Beijing, where North Korea's biggest ally is urging restraint. Jim Sciutto has more from Washington.

Let me start with you, Jim. What -- how seriously are U.S. military officials taking these threats from North Korea that it'll come up in a few

days with a plan to send missiles very close to U.S. waters off of Guam?

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF U.S. SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: They take them very seriously because North Korea has the missiles, they could do it. And now

they released demonstrating capability manufacturing. It's our reporting nuclear devices that they could put on the tips of intercontinental

ballistic missiles.

So, they have to prepare, plus, you have a very specific threat here. A type of missile, intermediate ballistic missile, a number of missiles, four

missiles and an exact kind of target coordinate for it, 10 miles off the coast of Guam.

So they do take it very seriously. Do they believe it's going to happen? If pressed (ph), no, because they know that an actual attack on the U.S.

territory would be met with an overwhelming response from the U.S. or North Korea. That said, they have to prepare because they have a capability and

this is a hostile regime and it's a hostile nuclear armed regime. So they do take it with great seriousness.

GORANI: But Jim, and I'll get to Will in a moment, are there any plans to move more military assets to the region? I mean, this would be a way for

us as observers to sort of try to read through the lines of what official statements we're hearing as to whether or not they do believe there's a

genuine military threat here?

SCIUTTO: To our knowledge, no plans to move more assets. But keep in mind, there are tremendous assets already in the region. This is an issue

that's been building for years. But even since Trump came into office, you have maneuvers with greater frequency. You have, it's believe, two nuclear

arms, submarines off the coast of the Korean Peninsula or in the area. You have the -- a big portion of the U.S. 7th Fleet in the Western Pacific now.

All of them with missile defense capabilities. You have B-1 bombers based in Guam that enters an air force base that have been doing regular flyovers

of the Korean Peninsula.

So you have a tremendous amount of capability already in the region that already give the President military options. So, have we seen more assets

going into the region, we haven't seen them --

GORANI: Or more activity. Systems (ph) with more activity with the assets already in place.

SCIUTTO: No more than are already there. And keep in mind, first of all, you have tremendous capability that's already there. Second of all, those

-- signals like that increase activity can be seen as acts of escalation, right? And --

GORANI: Right.

SCIUTTO: -- despite the rhetorical escalation, military commanders, defense secretary, et cetera are conscious of the fact that when you take

military steps like that even short of action, that could be met with further escalation form the other side. So they're trying to calibrate

this so that it does go down a path that, you know, makes conflicts more likely.

GORANI: Yes. Rhetorically, it doesn't seem like they're reining things in. We just heard from the president there saying he could have possibly

gone even further.

Will Ripley in Beijing, what is China's biggest concern over this crisis right now?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, before I answer that, Hala, there is going to be increased military in this region very soon because the U.S.

and South Korea joint military exercises are happening this month. And that is the time, this is always a tense time in this part of the world

when a military exercise has happened, they enraged Pyongyang.

They also make China pretty unhappy as well because China views those military exercises as certainly something that escalates the tension,

escalates the situation. And China doesn't like the United States engaging in military drills close to its own, close to its own border. I mean, the

South China Sea issue remains a very contentious one as well here. And so, China -- you know, listening to President Trump, I heard a message to China

in there. Yes, a message to North Korea as well, reiterating and even upping the rhetoric.

But, President Trump was telling China, one, if they don't do more that there could very well be a war breaking out in the Korean Peninsula which

would be disastrous for all parties involved. But China particularly, they can have a refugee crisis with hundreds of thousands of people streaming

across their borders. So there's a threat on that front.

There's also a threat in the trade situation. There's a more than $300 billion trade deficit between the U.S. and China that President Trump

alluded to. And he said, basically, that he's unhappy about that. He's going to crack down on that, which essentially means he's threatening to

start a trade war with China.

The U.S. has already started imposing Steve Charrett's (ph) on Chinese aluminum. He said -- he's implying that he'll do a lot more. But, if

China plays ball with the U.S. on the North Korea issue, then perhaps he won't.

Chinese officials here in Beijing have been warning the United States not to conflate those two issues. They do (ph) North Korea and trade as

entirely separate entities.

[15:10:03] North Korea is a strategic buffer for China between U.S. allied South Korea. There's a reason why they continue to trade with the North

Korean regime lead by Kim Jong-un even when they're unhappy about his behavior.

And yes, they have a very large and very important trade relationship with the United States. But China also values their military strategy as a very

important thing. And there -- those are two different issues in the eyes of the Chinese.

SCIUTTO: Hala, we should --

GORANI: All right.

SCIUTTO: -- be clear though that those --

GORANI: Yes. Go ahead, Jim.

SCIUTTO: -- military exercises are regularly scheduled. And just --

GORANI: Yes.

SCIUTTO: -- in the greater framing of this, listen, there is a rhetorical escalation here, but we don't want to exaggerate the march towards military

conflicts, right? I mean, you have tremendous military assets in the region, they've been there for some time. The exercises between North and

the South Korea and the U.S. and its partners certainly enraged the North Koreans and also unsettled the Chinese.

But they happen as a matter of course even for instance the overflights to the Korean Peninsula by B-1B bombers out of the Andersen Air Force Base in

Guam. It's a place early this week. That's part of a regular force presence in the region. So, we want to put those in the proper context and

not give the impression that you have military steps being taken now that haven't been taken in the past.

GORANI: All right. That's a very good point. Thanks very much, Jim Sciutto in Washington --

RIPLEY: And to Jim's point, Hala.

GORANI: OK.

RIPLEY: Also, North Korea has had capability, so it had conventional weapons --

GORANI: Last, last point, then we have to get to our next guest. Yes, go ahead.

RIPLEY: -- aimed across the DMZ for quite sometime. Yes, just saying they have conventional weapons pointed across the DMZ and they have for decades

and they haven't used them and they haven't used them for -- that exact reason. They don't want a war.

GORANI: Certainly, yes. We have these regularly scheduled exercises. No more military assets headed toward the region. So for right now, it

remains a war of words and not something more serious. Let's hope it stays that way. Jim Sciutto, Will Ripley, thanks to both of you.

SCIUTTO: Thank you.

GORANI: Our next guest brings with him a quarter century of experience when it comes to nuclear and defense policy issues. Tom Collina, as (ph)

policy director at the Ploughshares Fund, he joins me from Washington.

Tom, I hope you had an opportunity to listen there to our reporting from Jim Sciutto and Will Ripley.

Put this in context for us in terms of how worrying this escalation is. I think you also were able to hear the President of the United States who

said my statement that fire and fury statement probably didn't go far enough. Are we staying at the war of word stage, do you think?

TOM Z. COLLINA, POLICY DIRECTOR, PLOUGHSHARES FUND: I think we're in danger right now spiraling out of control. We have two inexperienced

bombastic leaders that seem incapable of bringing this back under control and it's spiraling higher and higher towards crisis. This is not good, we

need someone, an adult in the room, to bring it back down the earth to earth. And I'm hoping that China, which has a huge stake in this, of

course, can step in and try to provide some adult supervision to bring this, otherwise I think in some ways out of control leaders back to reason.

GORANI: But here's the thing, and let me play devil's advocate here. There are those who argue, well, you had the Clinton, and by the way,

Donald Trump mentioned Clinton and Obama many, many times, he referred back to their presidencies that Clinton had an opportunity to contain this and

he didn't. President Obama's strategy of strategic patience with North Korea didn't help because in the end, they were able -- it appears to

miniaturize this nuclear warhead on a longer range ICBMs. So, therefore maybe try something new. Why would this necessarily be dangerous?

COLLINA: So, the Clinton administration had an agreement with North Korea that lasted eight years. That's the only thing that has ever restrained

the North's nuclear program. That program came to an end or the agreement came to an end under the Bush administration.

And since then, we've had really nothing happening and the North Korean program has continued to continue a pace to the situation where we are now.

So we missed an opportunity diplomatically in 1999, 2000 to try to ratchet this back. And so, you know, not doing anything sort of let even North

continue is the same old thing. We need to get back the negotiation.

GORANI: That was a different leader, that was the father of the current leader. I mean, it was also different --

COLLINA: That is --

GORANI: -- circumstances. And they were at a very different stage of their nuclear program.

COLLINA: That is true. But time is not on our side at this point. If we're going to sit back and wait, the North is going to continue their

nuclear program to be more aggressive than it is. So if we want to stop this program before it gets worst and it can get worst, we have to pursue

negotiations.

There are no options. There is no military option with North Korea. There's 25 million good reasons not to pursue military strike against North

Korea. And that is the population of Seoul in South Korea. Sanctions --

GORANI: And --

COLLINA: -- are not enough. They haven't worked for the past decade. So if we don't do negotiations -- you know, North Korea is the land of bad

options, that's been said before --

[15:15:00] GORANI: But what do you mean negotiations, because there've been direct negotiations at lower levels many times, between the United

States and North Korea. What type of negotiation do you think could work in this case?

COLLINA: We need high level, quiet negotiations away from the television screens, away from the press releases, away from the glaring lights. Look,

both the United States and North Korea have an interest to not stumbling into nuclear catastrophe. And they both realize that that's an important

thing that they need to do.

So they need to talk about that, they need to figure out where the red lines that they can't cross. What are the mistakes that they shouldn't

make so that they don't bumble into nuclear war?

Once we figured that out, then we can figure out how to scale things back, whether it's the freeze for freeze, where there are North Korea freezes,

its missile program and its nuclear program in exchange for the United States and South Korea freezing or scaling back military exercise. Those

are the conversation we need to have at very high levels. Not necessarily for presidential level and not out in the open, but quiet diplomacy behind

the scenes.

GORANI: Tom Collina, thanks so much for your take on this. We really appreciate it.

COLLINA: You're welcome.

GORANI: A lot more to come this evening. The politics of the North Korea crisis, how is Washington reacting? Plus, the other news we're following

and including dramatic video showing the extraordinary moment when a boat full of migrants from Africa reached a holiday beach in southern Spain.

Two worlds collide. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GORANI: Just a few minutes ago, we brought you some of what President Donald Trump said about North Korea. He appeared there at his golf club in

New Jersey after high-level national security meeting with his Vice President Mike Pence. This is more of what Donald Trump have to say about

the crisis.

(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)

TRUMP: There are no mixed messages. There are no mixed messages. I heard -- I mean, to be honest, General Mattis may have taken in the step beyond

what I said.

There are no mixed messages and Rex was just, you know, stating the view that, look, is the view. I said it yesterday, I don't have to say it

again. And I'll tell you this, it may be tougher than I said it, not less, if they very well be tougher than I said it, OK? How about one more?

(OFF-MIC)

TRUMP: The people of this country should be very comfortable. And I will tell you this, if North Korea does anything in terms of even thinking about

attack, anybody that we love or we represent or our allies or us, they can be very, very nervous.

I'll tell you why, and they should be very nervous, because things will happen to them like they never thought possible. OK.

[15:20:05] He's been pushing the world around for a long time and I have great respect for what China and what Russia did and those 15 -- we got a

15 to nothing vote. I have great respect for China and Russia what they did on sanctions.

I believe that will have an effect. I don't think hat it will have the kind of effect even though I was the one -- we were the ones who got it.

And Nikki Haley did a great job, we all did a great a job. But I have great respect for what they did. I have great respect for the 15 to

nothing. But probably, it will not be as effective as a lot of people think it can be unfortunate (ph).

(OFF-MIC)

TRUMP: I think Johnny (ph) can do a lot more, yes. Johnny can. And I think Johnny will do a lot more.

Look, we have trade with China. We lose hundreds of billions of dollars a year on trade with China. They know how I feel. It's not going to

continue like that. But if China helps us, I feel a lot differently for trade. A lot differently for trade.

So, we will do -- I think -- the people of our country are safe, our allies are safe. And I will tell you this, North Korea better get their act

together or they're going to be in trouble like few nations ever have been in trouble in this world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GORANI: All right. Let's take a closer look now at the options facing President Trump and the politics of this crisis over North Korea.

We're joined by CNN political analyst and Washington Post writer Josh Rogin. So, what are the things -- and you wrote a piece about what type of

pressure or how the United States could approach China so that they, you know, sort of try to ratchet this whole crisis down.

And one of the things that Donald Trump said there, "If China helps us, I'd feel a lot more differently about trade."

JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Right. So, President Trump has gone back and fort and then back again on how he views China's level of

cooperation in dealing with the North Korea problems. Remember, it goes all the way back to Mar-a-Lago, where President Trump said that he believed

that Xi Jinping would help the United States and the international communities solve the North Korean problem.

As recently as last month, Trump had concluded that that was not the case. He tweeted that he was very disappointed in China. And now, after the U.N.

Security Council resolution, he seems to have new confidence that China will, again, be a constructive player in bringing North Korea into the

table in a way that the U.S. and international community can accept.

Now, what I did is I called around most of the experts in nuclear negotiators who have dealt with North Korea and China over the last 25

years. And they all said essentially the same thing that unless more pressure is brought to bear, China will not bring its own pressure to bear

on North Korea in a way that matters.

What China typically does is build a just enough pressure on North Korea to apiece the United States and the international community. But not enough

to really close a rift in the relationship with Pyongyang or to actually do the things that Pyongyang would think are strong enough that they would

have to change their behavior. So there are a lot of options --

GORANI: And why did they not go further? I mean, why do they not then taken a step further here with North Korea?

ROGIN: Well, essentially --

GORANI: Especially with the North Korea family has really progressed in its missile and nuclear program.

ROGIN: You know, the bottom line is that China simply does not see that as a threat to China. And they prefer regime stability over a confrontation

that might provoke regime instability. And that's a basic difference between now, China sees the problem with North Korea, now the United States

sees the North -- problem with North Korea.

Even when threatened with trade sanctions or economic sanctions or financial designations on Chinese entities, that still does not change

China's core belief that North Korea should not be confronted in a way that United States and South Korea and Japan are proposing. That may never

change. But the only way to test that is to actually increase the pressure on China.

GORANI: And how do you increase the pressure? How do you increase the pressure?

ROGIN: That's the question.

GORANI: Yes.

ROGIN: What we have inside the Trump administration was a policy called maximum pressure. And inside that policy was always contemplated that if

China didn't cooperate, there are several things we can do to compel China's cooperation. That includes more sanctions against Chinese banks

that are laundering North Korean money. More sanctions against Chinese companies that are helping North Korea build its nuclear missile program.

And then maybe some of the trade things that Donald Trump was talking about today.

There's a whole list of ways you can really impress upon the Chinese that this -- that there are sort of heft confrontation with North Korea.

GORANI: Why weren't they used by the Obama administration? Because, that was also an urgent matter then.

ROGIN: Well, the Obama administration went through a few different North Korea policies, in 2011 and 2012, they actually negotiated directly with

North Korea. Prepared a deal, but the deal fell through when Kim Jong-I'll died unexpectedly. After that, they just concluded that there was nothing

that they could do diplomatically with North Korea. But they did increase some sanctions.

[15:25:01] That policy, which is called strategic patience, is exactly what the Trump administration has promised to reverse. They've said that North

Korea is a problem that can no longer be taken down the road. There is a good argument for that. But they haven't gotten to that maximum pressure.

They're going very slowly towards it.

But the problem in the North Korean programs and their missile and nuclear development is outpacing our strategy of putting pressure on them, which is

why all these calls for more pressure on China are increasing.

GORANI: All right, Josh Rogin, thanks very much for joining us with your analysis and your take there in this breaking news story.

Let's turn our attention, and we'll get back to North Korea in a moment. But let's turn our attention to Kenya. And the main opposition candidate

still questions preliminary numbers that show him losing the presidential race.

Raila Odinga spoke exclusively with our Clarissa Ward. And though he's obviously disappointed and says there were irregularities, he's still

expressing hopes for piece in Kenya.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RAILA ODINGA, KENYAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We do not want to see any violence in Kenya. We know the consequences of what happened in 2008. And

we don't want to see a bit (ph) of that anymore.

CLARISSA WARD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And what will you do to ensure that there isn't a repeat of it?

ODINGA: Well, you know, I don't control anybody. I mean, what is happening, people are telling me, we just want to see justice. And we also

hope that the security forces are not going to use excessive force.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GORANI: Raila Odinga there. Farai Sevenzo is in Nairobi with the latest. So, what is the -- I mean, we don't have obviously final, final official

results. But, it is the belief of the opposition candidate, Raila Odinga, that there were irregularities. What are others saying in the country

about all this?

FARAI SEVENZO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well you know, today, Hala, we had a lot of observers. This has been the most observed election in Kenya's history.

We had the European Union. We had the Carter Foundation led by John Kerry. We had the African Union led by Thabo Mbeki, a former president.

And everyone is saying that the IEBC in Kenya did a fair job. They're all in the same page in this regard. That's why it was sounding to hear these

incredible claims today from Nasa and Mr. Raila Odinga's -- in a coalition, saying, that hacking did go ahead. And even incredible stuff, like they

have an insider within the IEBC. And that he's been feeding them information and at all manner of things.

So, at the moment, it's difficult to know how Mr. Odinga is going to deal with his grievances when, in fact, the official election buddy, the IEBC

say, we will give you the results within the next coming days.

GORANI: Yes. Now, you mentioned observers in John Kerry, the former U.S. secretary of state, spoke to CNN today as well about the Kenyan election.

This is what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN KERRY, FORMER U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: It's a paper ballot vote. And so it is determinable as to what happened. And I think it is important for

all of the candidates to allow the process to be transparently put to the test. And then if they have a concern, go through the rule of law. Go to

the court process, and let the evidence be there for everybody to see. I think there is great legitimacy in the basic process. The question now

that has to be tested is, did everybody follow it?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GORANI: And Farai, I mean, so, John Kerry is asking questions, did everyone follow it and go through the courts and do it peacefully? Are

there concerns because there were a few packets of demonstrations where there was violence over the last 24 hours? Are there concerns that these

questions over the results could also cause unrest or more unrest?

SEVENZO: You know, Hala, we have to remember that this battle, this political battle between Mr. Odinga and Mr. Kenyatta has been going on for

a decade. And that competition is in their supporter's hands.

So, what we saw yesterday, when two people were killed in Mathare in a sort of high density suburb of Nairobi is because this has been such an ongoing

battle, the supporters are wild up. And whenever he cries foul, they feel the need to go on the streets.

So, it's important to remember that if it does -- it is not diffused, we may go back in a situation of 2007 and 2008, which as he state, he can't do

anything about. But in fact, that's an open-ended question. Can he do something about it? Can he pull for more calm (ph) because at the moment,

the country is very intense? Hala.

GORANI: All right. Farai Sevenzo, thanks very much. We'll catch up with you later for more from Kenya.

Still to come, we turn back to North Korea. You're going to want to hear what my next guest has to say about what's inside North Korea's arsenal.

[15:30:00] More on the real nature of the threat from Kim Jong-un and his military.

Also coming up, could North Korea's leader be studying the downfall of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi? Kim Jong-un may be afraid of facing the

same fate. We'll explain why after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GORANI: Well, so just how large is North Korea's arsenal and how big is the threat? I want to bring in someone who can break all that down for us.

Melissa Hanham is a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and she joins me live now from Monterey,

California.

Thanks for being with us. So just simple first question, how large is North Korea's arsenal, its missile arsenal, and also its potential nuclear

threat?

MELISSA HANHAM, SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, JAMES MARTIN CENTER FOR NONPROLIFERATION STUDIES: That's a complicated question to answer. They

have quite a few short-range missiles, things like Scuds and Nodongs that they have tested for years, that they consider reliable. So they have

probably well over a thousand of those each.

And the intermediate and long-range or ICBM, intercontinental range, we don't have as good a number on that. They do frequent parades which allows

us to do some counting there, but we often think of the vehicles that carry their missiles as the real constraint, rather than the missiles themselves.

In terms of warheads --

GORANI: Has the view --

HANHAM: -- variations --

GORANI: I'm sorry, could you expand on that --

HANHAM: -- are wide.

GORANI: -- that made you consider the vehicles? Yes. What do you mean as the real constraint?

HANHAM: Sure. So it doesn't matter how many missiles you have, but there's only a limited number of vehicles you can use to launch them.

GORANI: I see.

HANHAM: North Korea doesn't use bombers or submarines like the U.S. does quite yet, although they have been making advancement in their submarine

program. So typically, they're constrained by these large, heavy-duty trucks, which are called transporter erectors and sometimes transporter

erector launchers.

GORANI: OK. And how many of those can we estimate they have?

HANHAM: So for the ICBM that has been launched twice in July, they have six of those heavy-duty trucks that we have seen associated with that

vehicle. But in the April parade that they held showing sort of first hints of the Hwasong-14 to come, we also saw that they were using the

Musudan truck, a truck called AMAS, that's made in -- was previously made in Belarus to show off those trucks as well.

[15:34:56] GORANI: Now -- obviously, now, the big development and what's made this such a concerning situation is that it's the belief of some

intelligence officials and operatives in the United States that North Korea has managed to miniaturize a tip to put on one of the long-range missiles,

so the intercontinental ballistic missile. Is that your assessment as well? I mean, how do you definitively conclude this from afar?

HANHAM: Sure. So I don't have access to any classified material because I work at a university. So based just on open source information and that's

really by watching the production places, the amount of uranium that is mined, and understanding the physics behind how this material is made, we

can make a wide range of guesses.

The number that the Defense Intelligence Agency came out and was leaked just a couple of days ago was 60 warheads. Now, it's much higher than most

people in the research community like myself thought, but their theory is that North Korea is able to use composite tips for their warheads, which

means they can use more fissile material -- excuse me, they can less fissile material for the same amount of boom. It's a more efficient use of

the warhead.

GORANI: And lastly, if there is a launch, presumably, there are anti- missile defense systems throughout the region that could target this missiles or not? I mean, what is the threat in that sense? How protected

is the region with the sort of missile shield systems that they have installed on the Korean Peninsula and elsewhere?

HANHAM: Sure. So there are a number of anti-missile systems that are placed around the world, as you noted. I think that they have had several

tests that have been successful, which is quite a scientific achievement in itself, but they have never been tested in a war situation.

So some of the concerns that researches often raise is, can they be overwhelmed by the quantity of missiles? Can they be confused by using

chaff or balloons or other kinds of confusers? And also, you know, are they able to be ready to identify a target at night or in unusual

circumstances?

Many of the tests that are done on these systems, including the ICBM test that was done out of Vandenberg Air Force Base here in the U.S., was done

where there was a lot of information about the test beforehand, when it would happen and where it would come from, things like that. And that, of

course --

GORANI: Yes.

HANHAM: -- wouldn't be the case in a war.

GORANI: Right. You certainly don't get a heads up. Thanks, Melissa Hanham. We really appreciate your expertise and analysis this evening on

the program.

Russia, for its part, is urging caution when it comes to the North Korea crisis, saying provocative actions must be avoided. Overall, though, it is

keeping relatively quiet on this standoff that's been dominating the headlines.

Let's bring in our Senior International Correspondent Matthew Chance. He's normally in Moscow. He's at CNN Center.

So why have we heard little, relatively speaking, from Russia on this?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think part of the reason for that is that Russia doesn't have the kind of skin in the

game in this conflict that other countries like China do have and, of course, other countries in the region as well.

You know, having said that, the Russians have made some comments about the heightened rhetoric that we've been hearing between the United States and

the North Koreans over the past couple of days. The Russian Ambassador to the United Nations called on the United States to keep calm and to refrain

from any moves that would provoke dangerous actions.

Also, Sergey Lavrov, who's the Russian Foreign Minister, has taken note of the strong comments, the tough comments as he called them, coming from the

North Korean Foreign Ministry. He said that they always react in a similar manner and should be judged on their concrete steps.

And so, you know, the Russians, as you said, have been urging caution, partly because any kind of military confrontation, they're pretty much

aware of this, may have catastrophic consequences. But also because, I think it's fair to say, that Russians are fundamentally opposed to any sort

of move towards regime change on the part of America or the West in general. And this is another manifestation of that, Hala.

GORANI: Matthew Chance, thanks so much there for that update. Whatever weapons may be in North Korea's arsenal and whatever diplomatic efforts

neighbors are making, the real question is, what is Kim Jong-un thinking?

Our international diplomatic editor has written an op-ed with an interesting theory that Kim Jong-un might be thinking back in history,

comparing himself to late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

So tell us why he might be thinking of Muammar Gaddafi who did not meet, by the way, the most peaceful end.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: He didn't, and that is what's going to be on Kim's mind. We've heard it from the North Korean

state media that they do think about what happened in Libya.

[15:39:59] Look, I mean, Kim, right now, is trying to figure out if he can trust the United States when they say this is not about regime change. We

want to get into talks with you. It's not about regime change.

Muammar Gaddafi in the early 2000s decided to give up his nuclear weapons program, decided to sort of give up his errant ways supporting terrorists

around the world so he could be rehabilitated into the international community. In the late 2000s, I was meeting with some of his top advisers.

They were here in the U.K. I was going to Libya meeting with them there, meeting with his son, Saif Gaddafi.

So then when we get to the Arab spring 2011, I was talking to the same people and his son, Saif Gaddafi. They felt they had the support of the

West, that they've been helping the British and the Americans over counterterrorism operations and other things. And they didn't think that

the United States or the Europeans would act against them, yet that's precisely what NATO did. They supported the opposition.

So, you know, this was the -- this was the Libyan experience. That you do a deal with the West on your nukes, and guess what? It's worth nothing at

the end of the day.

GORANI: Yes.

ROBERTSON: And so as you said --

GORANI: And it's possible that Kim Jong-un is thinking the same thing. That why would I do a deal? Then I'm left with no leverage at all.

ROBERTSON: And worse than that, maybe left at the -- to the hands of your people as well.

GORANI: Yes.

ROBERTSON: I mean, it's not just that the -- not just that your international opponents may remove you from power, your own population may.

And that's what happened to Gaddafi.

GORANI: But the big difference though is that the Libyan nuclear program was nowhere near, you know, sort of the stage of building a nuclear weapon.

ROBERTSON: Gaddafi had little leverage. He also had --

GORANI: There were at least five years away.

ROBERTSON: At least, as well. And he had been trying to sort of rehabilitate himself into the international community over a period of

time. And that, you know, he is sort of -- the Lockerbie bombing and the trial of Megrahi over that. You know, Libya had been beginning to

cooperate.

And Libya was a different example again because, you know, had the West had taken action against Libya, and it had in the past, Libya was much more

isolated, had less capability to respond to its near neighbors.

And that's the problem. Kim knows that he has leverage because he has artillery, about 621,000 pieces potentially, some of them -- many of them

within striking distance of Seoul, a little bit to the South. So the military mechanics for him are different and give him more leverage. And

as you say, he's closer.

GORANI: But what incentive --

ROBERTSON: He maybe thinks he is a sprint.

GORANI: I struggle to find an answer to this because, clearly, sanctions hasn't worked, and China doesn't see it right now in its best interest to

rattle North Korea too much because it doesn't want the regime to crumble. If sanctions don't work and pressure is not working and military strikes

are definitely not an option, let's hope, what other strategy is there?

ROBERTSON: We're absent of one at the moment. I mean, we heard from President --

GORANI: I mean, I don't see one. I mean, enlighten me through this point.

ROBERTSON: Well, the --

GORANI: Yes.

ROBERTSON: Again, it's the diplomatic one and perhaps President Trump is - -

GORANI: Direct talks.

ROBERTSON: Direct talks or other -- any talks, anything that gets North Korea to back down from the position it's in right now. But, you know,

we've heard Secretary Tillerson say and that's where he's going with, the Secretary.

We've heard President Trump this evening, in the last few hours, say that he doesn't think that the sanctions are going to work, that he's very

grateful he's got China and Russia's support for that. And he's clearly going to need their help again because he's thanked them for that.

GORANI: Well, they haven't worked in the past, so you may have a point.

ROBERTSON: No. But he is -- what he is doing is setting --

GORANI: Also, they're not really hurting North Korea as much as the U.S. would want, and that's a key point.

ROBERTSON: We heard from the State Department today --

GORANI: Yes.

ROBERTSON: -- saying that, you know, they know that sanctions in North Korea will affect the leadership more than they'll affect the population.

That would be different from any other country in the world, if that were the case. You know, I think where we're at, at the moment, trying to get

Kim to stand down on this is, as thorny an issue as it was before, it's harder because he's -- because he thinks he's in a final sprint to the

endgame.

But President Trump is trying to do something that others haven't done, which is threaten the ultimate sanction. However, you know, you weaken

your own national security if you make a threat and you don't carry it out if Kim does continue that sprint for deterrent.

GORANI: Yes, we've seen the red lines drawn in the past.

ROBERTSON: Yes. So this is --

GORANI: And none of it worked.

ROBERTSON: This is the only significant difference at the moment that I can see.

GORANI: OK. Nic Robertson, thanks very much. Appreciate your time and interesting perspective there.

Up next, take a look at these images. These tourists certainly did not expect what they witnessed on holiday. We'll show you dramatic video of

the moment a boat filled with desperate migrants washed up on the shore in -- on a beach on southern Spain. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[15:46:43] GORANI: Take a look at this remarkable video from southern Spain, as we mentioned there. There are really two universes colliding in

a single image.

This is the moment that a dinghy carrying several migrants arrived on a beach full of tourists. You see the beach goers and the holiday makers in

their bathing suits, and then migrants who've come from Africa on a dinghy packed, as you could see, to the gills running as fast as they can away

from the boat that carried them to shore.

The contrast between the people who were there to enjoy the sun and the people who tried desperately to reach that piece of land is pretty stark,

you've to admit. The migrants traveled to the Strait of Gibraltar. And once they reached their destination, they dispersed and ran off.

You'll see that video again in a moment in Arwa Damon's report which, I must warn you, is graphic as it's just the latest example of a crisis that

spread across Europe, Africa, and throughout the Middle East.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): There is no boundary, it seems, to the cruelty inflected on the most desperate. The

bodies lay curled up on the beach, and from a distance, one could even imagine they are sleeping.

This is how they washed ashore. They didn't have a chance. They were killed by those they trusted to take them to what was meant to be a better

life.

LAURENT DE BOECK, CHIEF OF YEMEN MISSION, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR MIGRATION: So they were only -- they're really too many, but five bodies

today. But there are 50 others that we absolutely don't know where they are. So many are still in the sea, and we have doubt that they would be

alive still.

DAMON (voice-over): Survivors told the IOM, the International Organization for Migration, that the smuggler forced them off their boat, off the coast

of Yemen, when he saw authorities near the shore. Their boat was packed with more than 150 migrants, and many were just teenagers.

There were two similar incidents in as many days. Those who make this lesser used crossing presumably were hoping for jobs in the Gulf countries,

hardly aware of the dangers of Yemen itself.

Most African migrants do aim for Europe. A boat packed with migrants recently landed on the shores of Spain, stunning sunbathers before they

scattered up the beach. But their hardships are hardly over as Europe tries to contain its so-called migrant crisis.

And while the crackdowns by authorities to contain the flow may have reduced the numbers of migrants reaching Europe's shores, it has hardly

stopped those driven by desperation and false promises from trying journeys that have already claimed thousands of lives this year alone. And that

will claim many more until the wars, poverty, and hunger at the root cause of this desperate and deadly journey are eliminated.

Arwa Damon, CNN, Istanbul.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

[15:49:42] GORANI: Well, check out our Facebook page for the latest news, interviews and analysis, facebook.com/halagoranicnn. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GORANI: A reminder of our breaking news this hour. Donald Trump has doubled down on his harsh rhetoric pointed toward North Korea, saying that

his original fire and fury statement may not have been strong enough. Let's replay that sound for you.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Hello, everybody. We're having some meetings. I know you're going to be watching a couple of them.

We have a lot of people here today. A lot of subjects under discussion, including Venezuela, including, of course, North Korea, and other things.

And I think we're making tremendous headway.

We'll be spending quite a bit of time here, and then we -- during the weekend, as you know, towards the end, we're going to Manhattan where I

have a lot of meetings scheduled in Manhattan.

Any questions?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mr. President, the North Koreans said yesterday that your statement on Tuesday was nonsense. That's the word that they used.

Do you have any response to that?

TRUMP: Well, I don't think they mean that. And I think they -- it's the first time they've heard it like they heard it. And frankly, the people

that were questioning that statement, was it too tough, maybe it wasn't tough enough. They've been doing this to our country for a long time, for

many years. And it's about time that somebody stuck up for the people of this country and for the people of other countries.

So, if anything, maybe that statement wasn't tough enough, and we're backed by a hundred percent by our military. We're backed by everybody. And

we're backed by many other leaders.

And I noticed that many senators and others today came out very much in favor of what I said. But if anything, that statement may not be tough

enough.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What would tougher than fire and fury?

TRUMP: Well, you'll see. You'll see.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mr. President, is one of the options being considered a preemptive strike or first strike --

TRUMP: We don't talk about that. I never do. I'm not like the other administration that would say we're going into Mosul in four months. I

don't talk about it. We'll see what happens. But I can tell you that what they've been doing and what they've been getting away with is a tragedy,

and it can't be allowed.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Mr. President, would you ever consider negotiations under different circumstances?

TRUMP: Sure. We'll always consider negotiations, but they've been negotiating now for 25 years. Look at Clinton. He folded on the

negotiations. He was weak and ineffective.

You look at what happened with Bush, you look at what happened with Obama. Obama, he didn't even want to talk about it. But I talk. It's about time.

Somebody has to do it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GORANI: That was Donald Trump just moments ago. He's at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey. He met with his national security team. You saw

him there appear before reporters with the Vice President Mike Pence.

And we're expecting, by the way, to hear more from the President any moment. CNN will bring you that as soon as it happens.

Now, as Brian Todd reports, the President's aggressive tactics, though, may backfire. Here's how.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): President Trump's message to Kim Jong-un? Have no doubt about American firepower if you continue to

threaten the U.S.

TRUMP: They will be met with fire, fury, and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before.

TODD (voice-over): Possibly playing the good cop, the President's top diplomat stressed nothing has changed militarily in the region.

REX TILLERSON, UNITED STATES SECRETARY OF STATE: I think the President -- what the President is doing is sending a strong message to North Korea in

language that Kim Jong-un would understand.

TODD (voice-over): Kim's regime has often used apocalyptic rhetoric. Its state- run media recently saying if the U.S. teases North Korea with

sanctions and military might, America will be, quote, catapulted into an unimaginable sea of fire.

[15:55:03] But the concern now is that the President and some members of his administration are venturing on to dangerous terrain by provoking the

young tyrant.

ROBERT MANNING, RESIDENT SENIOR FELLOW WITH BRENT SCOWCROFT CENTER ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL: Part of this escalating

rhetoric game which I think is really not very helpful, and he's just ratcheting up tensions. And my fear is this is how nations blunder into

wars.

TODD (voice-over): Trump's Defense Secretary seemed to push Kim even more, saying North Korea should stop considering actions, quote, that would lead

to the end of its regime.

Analysts say that's what might provoke Kim more than almost anything else - - the threat of being tossed out of power or assassinated. They say we should never lose sight of what this man can do even to those close to him

when threatened like that.

BRUCE KLINGNER, SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW FOR NORTHEAST ASIA, THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION: He even had his uncle, his mentor, executed by anti-aircraft

artillery. He was seen as the second most powerful man in North Korea. And he was a relative and Kim Jong-Un took him out.

TODD (voice-over): Experts say Kim, like his father, is known to use bluster in a calculating way, to stir the pot then sit back and gauge the

response. But even if they're speaking in terms Kim would, quote, understand, some believe President Trump and his Defense Secretary will get

the opposite of what they're looking for from Kim's regime.

KLINGNER: They say they need nuclear weapons to deter against this, you know, war-hungry United States. So these kinds of comments or even other

comments vowing to attack North Korea if they cross a technological threshold will only affirm that, to North Korea's mind, why they need to

have nuclear weapons.

TODD (on camera): But there are those who say the rhetoric from previous American presidents hasn't worked, and tougher talk is needed right now.

One analyst who has supported President Trump in the past says this is a more dangerous moment than Trump's predecessors faced with North Korea, and

the President's language sends a necessary message to Kim that America can act with force if pushed.

Brian Todd, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GORANI: All right. We're expecting any moment now the U.S. President to come out and address reporters once more. He's meeting currently with his

Chief of Staff, John Kelly; his national security adviser, H.R. McMaster; and the Vice President, Mike Pence, discussing, of course, top of the list

would be the crisis with North Korea.

We'll bring you that when it happens. I'm Hala Gorani. "QUEST MEANS BUSINESS" is next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

RICHARD QUEST, CNN ANCHOR: Closing bell ringing on Wall Street. The Dow is off the best part of 200 points, the lowest point of the session. We've

got markets down around the world.

[16:00:08] And a firm gavel from Allison Transmission. A relieved gavel today.

END