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New Day

Volcano Erupts on Quake-Ravaged Island; Midterm Elections 34 Days Away; First Lady Visits Castle in Ghana; Amazon's Wage Hike. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired October 03, 2018 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:32:39] ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: The death toll keeps rising. Now more than 1,400 people confirmed dead in Indonesia's earthquake and tsunami disaster. Indonesia's government criticized for its slow response as aid starts to trickle in. But now a volcano has erupted on this disaster-ravaged island.

CNN's Matt Rivers is live in Palu with the latest.

What's happening there today, Matt?

MATT RIVERS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, thankfully, Alisyn, that volcano eruption was about 300 miles north of us, doesn't appear to have had a significant impact here at all. And it's -- that's a good thing because this region certainly cannot handle much more.

That government response that you were talking about continues to be criticized. However, we are seeing, for the first time really, and we've been here for several days now, we are seeing a more sustained government response. We've heard planes flying in and out all day long. Something we haven't heard before. We know that aid ships arrived here in Palu earlier today. So finally it appears that more aid is coming to this area that so desperately needs it.

You also talk about the death toll continuing to go up. We've got some video to show you where we really saw firsthand why that is the case. We went to a town today called Potabo (ph), which basically was the victim of something called liquefaction, which basically means that during an earthquake the ground underneath these homes became like a liquid. It went from being a solid to being like a liquid, which means everything above was sunken below the ground and mud rose up in its place. It was stunning to walk on top of that some 20 feet high. And rescuers haven't even begun to get into that area. The disaster response person that we spoke to on site there said that he expects dozens, if not hundreds more bodies to be pulled out of that area. So the death toll is going to continues to go up and villages like that are the reason why.

John.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, Matt Rivers for us in Palu.

Matt, thank you very much for your reporting.

There are a lot of people looking for ways to help. Come on our website. We'll tell you how you can.

In the meantime, all that talk of a blue wave, but a brand-new poll that might give Democrats pause. What are the numbers saying this morning? One man knows. There's something about Harry, next.

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[06:38:54] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And I'm not on the ticket, but I am on the ticket, because this is also a referendum about me.

I want you to vote. Pretend I'm on the ballot. And, don't worry, we'll be on the ballot in two years and we will do a landslide like you haven't -- like you wouldn't believe.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: That's President Trump speaking in Mississippi last night as he rallied for Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. The midterms are just more than one month away now. What key races should we be watching? There's something about Harry.

BERMAN: Indeed there is.

CAMEROTA: So let's get "The Forecast" with CNN's senior politics writer and analyst Harry Enten.

Hi, Harry.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICS WRITER AND ANALYST: Hello.

CAMEROTA: What do you think of this new graphic we have for you? It's artistic.

ENTEN: I think it looks -- it looks like me. Maybe a little bit like Casey Affleck as well if Casey Affleck and I had a kid, it would probably be something looking like that.

BERMAN: All right.

CAMEROTA: OK. Fantastic. Where would you like to start, since you're serious about politics?

BERMAN: I would like to start with the Quinnipiac poll and the congressional ballot test. We've been talking about a blue wave. Things had been looking good, good, good, good, good for the Democrats taking the House. But then yesterday, Harry, you warned us that you were seeing signs of trouble for the Democrats and then Quinnipiac releases a poll where their lead in the generic ballot test down to 7 points. It had been, what, 14 or 12 the week before? [06:40:07] ENTEN: Yes. Yes. I would say that what I was seeing was the averages were moving, right? And so this falls in line with the averages. And while seven points -- it's probably large enough that Democrats would be able to take back the House, it certainly points an ominous picture for them in the Senate where a calculation would probably suggest they need to be closer to 11 points ahead.

BERMAN: What happened? Do we know why that number has shrunk some? Is it the Supreme Court fight with conservatives coming home to the Republican Party?

ENTEN: I think that's certainly a possibility. I think, you know, all this talk about Judge Brett Kavanaugh, all of that's bad for Republicans. He's so unpopular. But the thing I keep pointing out is he's actually more popular than the president of the United States. And more than that, it puts people into their partisan camps. And in this country, that's so evenly divided, when you're put in your partisan camps and the Democrats such a -- had such a large lead to begin with, it would have to shrink.

CAMEROTA: Let's look at a razor thin race in Florida, and that is Bill Nelson, the Democrat, versus Rick Scott, the Republican, 45 percent to 44 percent. What are you seeing there?

ENTEN: Yes, that is a razor-tight race. Remember, Bill Nelson is running for yet another term. He was first elected in 2000. And Rick Scott, who's the two-term Republican governor, is challenging him.

When this race first started off, I honestly thought that Bill Nelson was going to run away with it. But Rick Scott has run one of the best campaigns this cycle. He's the most popular he's ever been in the state. And if Democrats want to win control of the United States Senate, they absolutely must win here. And the fact that Rick Scott is giving Bill Nelson so much trouble is a very bad sign for Democrats. Although I still think that Bill Nelson is favored as that poll sort of indicates.

BERMAN: Two interesting dynamics in Florida. Number one, the president's popularity there not as bad in other states.

ENTEN: Not as bad.

BERMAN: But the flip side of that is, you have a Democratic candidate for governor, Andrew Gilliam, who's doing much better than I think people expected he would in maybe buoying Nelson (INAUDIBLE).

ENTEN: Yes, I think that's absolutely right. Andrew Gilliam, who, you know, came out of nowhere to win the Democratic nomination, African- American candidate, I believe is going to help boost African-American turnout, which usually lags in midterm elections. And African- Americans are nine, ten to one Democratic. So if more of them are coming out, that could, in fact, boost Bill Nelson. And indeed what we've seen in the polls since Gillum won the nomination is that Bill Nelson went from say being a point or two behind, to being a point or two ahead. And you know what, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter how many votes you win by as long as you win. CAMEROTA: And we're going to move on in a second, but just one last question, what has Rick Scott done so well, so effectively?

ENTEN: Handling of hurricanes. That was seen to be the big thing that he did in the past few years that really helped buoy him. When he won his second term for governor, he actually had a net popular negative favorable rating and now he has a positive one.

BERMAN: And also when governors face senators on the ballot, it's always an interesting dynamic because you basically have two incumbents going after each other and it's curious what people distinguish and how they distinguish it.

CAMEROTA: Right. And Rick Scott can say you haven't done anything in Congress.

BERMAN: Right.

ENTEN: And he's outside of Washington. And that -- that's effecting (ph) him (ph).

BERMAN: Speaking of governors and senators, Joe Manchin has been both up for re-election for Senate in West Virginia now. He had been one of the targeted Democrats. You know, West Virginia is such a red state now. But he's got a pretty comfortable lead.

ENTEN: He does have a pretty comfortable lead. This poll shows him up by eight. My own forecast shows him up by eight. Pretty much all the polls have him up.

What's interesting about West Virginia is, yes, it went for Donald Trump aby over 40 points, but it still has a Democratic Party registration advantage. Now, some of that is people who simply haven't switched.

But look at Gallup's polling and you see -- you ask about party affiliation, whether or not you're a Democrat or a Republican, and you match that up against President Trump's approval rating, in most states it seems to be a very linear relationship, when in West Virginia the relationship's all off. It's much more Democratic than you'd expect given President Trump's approval rating and Joe Manchin seems to be taking advantage of that.

CAMEROTA: And yet this week there's conservative groups that are targeting him for how he'll vote on the Brett Kavanaugh decision. And so that's an open question how much pressure they will be able to exert.

ENTEN: Yes, that's a big-time question. Joe Manchin, among red state Democrats, is one of them who says he hasn't made up his mind. And I think he's going to get back the polling and he's going to probably make a decision.

But the thing that I would perhaps say is, I would just go the way that you're going to go. I am not entirely sure that there are that many swing voters who are going to make up their mind based upon this. It's really the partisans who are going to probably make up their mind or be more motivated to vote because of this.

BERMAN: It's the intensity of support, which, again, could be swayed by the Supreme Court nomination. We could be seeing that in the president's approval numbers and what not.

Have we decided on there's something about Harry?

CAMEROTA: I think we're -- we're going with that. And he has a full illustration.

BERMAN: He does. It's confusing having you leer over my shoulder while we're trying to have a serious conversation.

ENTEN: Well, we'll have two of me and that way you'll just never forget who I am.

CAMEROTA: I think it's Joaquin Phoenix.

ENTEN: You know I got (INAUDIBLE) Joaquin Phoenix before. Joaquin Phoenix, Casey Afflack. I once had a nice woman date me because I think she looked -- she thought I looked like --

CAMEROTA: She thought you were Joaquin Phoenix?

ENTEN: I was Joaquin Phoenix. So, you know, whatever you need, I'll take whatever it is. I'll take all the tricks in my book.

CAMEROTA: I like it.

BERMAN: But only now is she learning that he's not. Sorry.

CAMEROTA: Yes. Yes, we -- we're sorry for that mishap. But I don't see Casey Affleck. I just see Joaquin Phoenix.

[06:45:02] ENTEN: Well, you know what, they're both good-looking individuals, so I'll take either one.

CAMEROTA: Very good.

Harry, thank you.

ENTEN: Thank you.

CAMEROTA: Fantastic.

BERMAN: Joaquin, appreciate it.

CAMEROTA: First Lady Melania Trump continues her first solo trip abroad in Ghana. This morning she's visiting a local landmark with a powerful history. So we will take you there live.

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BERMAN: All right, happening now, First Lady Melania Trump is in Cape Coast, Ghana, on her first solo trip abroad. At this moment, she's visiting the historic Cape Coast Castle, which is a former slave- trading outpost.

CNN's Kate Bennett is one of very few journalists traveling along with the first lady. Kate joins us live by phone from Cape Coast with the very latest.

Kate, give us a sense of what you're seeing.

KATE BENNETT, CNN CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Hey, John.

That's right, this has been a very emotional moment for the first lady as part of the Africa tour which just began yesterday in Ghana. She first, when we arrived this morning to the coast region, participated in a ceremony where she had to ask for official permission from the chief to visit his land, to come to the castle. It was very interesting to watch her participate in that. She was gifted with some traditional (INAUDIBLE) cloth and there was a lot of ceremonial aspects.

[06:50:10] And then she came over here to the castle and took a guided tour. She kept her head down most of the time. We could see her asking a lot of questions. And she laid a wreath at the door of no return, which is, of course, where slaves would enter to board slave ships and leave Africa.

One thing the first lady did say, she -- she actually spoke to the press this morning just a few minutes ago, which is fairly rare for her. I'm going to toss to a quick sound bite to talk about how she was feeling visiting this historic place.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MELANIA TRUMP, FIRST LADY: And this is a very special place. I will never forget the incredible experience, and the stories that I heard from the gentlemen. It's really, really something. And the dungeons that I saw, it's really something that people should see and experience. And what happened so many years ago, it's really a tragedy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BENNETT: So, John, this is the first lady's first time ever in Africa. So she's seeing all of these things for the first time. We remember, of course, President Barack Obama was here in 2009 visiting, taking a very similar tour of the property here.

We'll see the first lady continue her Africa tour. She will wrap up her Ghana portion, will move on to the other countries, Malawi, Kenya and Egypt, before heading back to Washington. But, again, this was a moving moment for First Lady Melania Trump here in Ghana.

CAMEROTA: Kate, these -- this video is so beautiful to look at and we're so happy that you are traveling with the first lady to bring it to us. Thank you.

So there is widespread praise for Amazon's decision to raise minimum wage -- the minimum wage to $15 an hour. But what inspired them to do that? Christine Romans has the answer, next.

BERMAN: If you're a prime member --

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[06:56:50] BERMAN: It is time for "CNN Money Now."

Two of Amazon's biggest critics, the White House and Senator Bernie Sanders, praising Amazon for raising wages. But it's new wage hikes may not be totally altruistic.

Our chief business correspondent Christine Romans with the truth.

Romans.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Well, the truth here really is it shows just how strong the economy is, honestly.

On November 1st, Amazon will raise its minimum wage for $15 an hour for all U.S. employees. That's 350,000 full-time, part-time and temp workers. Amazon says it listened to its critics that say it relies on low-paid labor. Economic adviser to the White House, Larry Kudlow, praised Amazon, telling White House reporters he favors higher wages. Senator Bernie Sanders has long claimed Jeff Bezos, the world's richest man, was paying low wages and that Amazon employees were being subsidized by taxpayers through food stamps and welfare. Now, he says, credit where it's due.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I), VERMONT: What Mr. Bezos today has done is not only enormously important for Amazon's hundreds of thousands of employees, it could well be, and I think it will be, a shot heard around the world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMANS: Amazon is now the highest paid retailer -- paying retailer. It's good PR. It might just be good for business. The labor market is so tight, you guys, unemployment is at 3.9 percent. Other retailers, like Amazon, are also fighting for talent. Amazon will lobby for a higher federal minimum wage and wants other companies to raise wages too.

But a "Wall Street Journal" op-ed is critical. Mr. Bezos' wage hike may be a lot more praiseworthy if it hadn't been combined with a plea for government to raise the labor costs of its competitors. Beware when big business conspires with big government.

Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: All right, Christine, I mean however they got there, they got there.

BERMAN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: Altruism or not.

ROMANS: $15 an hour. Highest in the country.

CAMEROTA: Thank you.

Comedians taking on the big headlines out of the White House. Here are your late night laughs.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SETH MEYERS, HOST, "LATE NIGHT WITH SETH MEYERS": Majority Leader Mitch McConnell repeated today that the Senate will vote on Supreme Court Nominee Brett Kavanaugh this week, because, damn it, it's on the calendar.

JIMMY KIMMEL, HOST, "JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE": Melania Trump was in Ghana today, as in she's never Ghana come back. This is a -- this is a -- an historic trip because not only is it Melania's first solo trip overseas, it's the first time that a member of the Trump family has ever gone to Africa without shooting an elephant. So that's nice. It's (ph) progress (ph).

STEPHEN COLBERT, HOST, "THE LATE SHOW WITH STEPHEN COLBERT": Donald Trump has always sold himself as something of a self-made man who built an empire out of nothing but a dream and hard work, and a loan from his dad.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It has not been easy for me. And, you know, I started off in Brooklyn. My father gave me a small loan of a million dollars.

COLBERT: Yes, just a small loan of a million dollars. That's barely enough to silence eight porn stars.

Oh.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: All right, I didn't know he was going there. I didn't see that one coming.

CAMEROTA: That's money math. Everybody has a different way of using math, and that is Colbert's way of using math. I like that.

BERMAN: He uses matt along with porn.

All right, thanks to our international viewers for watching. For you, CNN "TALK" is next. For our U.S. viewers, NEW DAY continues right now.

[07:00:05] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It's a very scary time for young men in America.

SEN. MAZIE HIRONO (D), HAWAII: For them to act like the victims is the reason women do not come forward. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you