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Is the GOP Benefitting From The Kavanaugh Controversy?; World Slams Putin In Coordinated Rebuke; Kavanaugh Vote Comes Down To Four Undecided Senators. Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired October 05, 2018 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:34:19] ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: It's time for "CNN Business Now." In just about an hour, we're going to get a look at the September jobs report. So will this be good news for U.S. workers?

Chief business correspondent Christine Romans is in our Money Center with a preview. Good morning.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT, ANCHOR, "EARLY START": Hi there, Erica.

Well, expect another strong month.

Here's the forecast. One hundred eighty-five thousand new jobs. The unemployment rate falling to 3.8 percent, still very close to an 18- year low.

You know, the labor market, we've been telling you, is tight. There are about six million unemployed people looking for work and there are about six million open jobs. There's just about one unemployed person for every open job in the U.S.

That should be pushing up wages but it really hasn't yet. We'll have to see what wage growth is today.

[07:35:00] One point six million net new jobs so far this year. That compares with 2.1 million overall last year.

These are extraordinary numbers but I want to put it all in context for you and show you what these numbers look like over the past decade. Job creation almost matches the very strong 2014, 2015, and 2016, but not quite.

We'll get the official numbers at 8:30 here eastern time. I'll be breaking those numbers down in about an hour.

And for more of the latest on the jobs report or tech, media, and finance, go to the new "CNN Business" featuring exclusive interviews with newsmakers and in-depth coverage of the companies driving business forward. You can find it all at cnn.com/business, Erica.

HILL: All right, Christine. Thank you. We are now just -- in case you lost count, we have not -- 32 days from the midterm elections. So how will the Kavanaugh confirmation fight impact voters and potentially the balance of power in Congress?

There's something about Harry, as we know. So let's get the forecast with CNN senior politics writer and analyst Harry Enten.

So, who is the battle better for in the end?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICS WRITER: I think that the battle has been better for Republicans. And the reason why I believe that, it's not actually enthusiasm which a lot of people have spoken about, saying hey, this is really revving up Republican voters.

In fact, I think it's more about persuasion. That is that people who previously said that they were going to vote for Democratic candidates have actually come home and are saying that they're going to vote for Republicans candidates.

Why is that? That's the big question, right, because Judge Kavanaugh is the least popular Supreme Court nominee since Robert Bork. And, indeed, in the Gallup poll that has been released this week, we see that his numbers are about evenly split.

But here's the thing. He is far more popular than the President of the United States, Donald Trump, whose approval rating is in the low 40s and his disapproval rating is well about 50 percent, as we see in this Gallup poll.

And so what's occurring is instead of people casting their vote or saying they're going to cast their vote about Donald Trump, they're much more enthusiastic about Supreme Courts. And therefore, they're saying if we're going to vote on the Supreme Court were much more likely to vote Republican.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: It's very interesting. It's an interesting phenomenon because except for a few brief moments where President Trump made it about him when he said things that most Republicans found reprehensible or -- this has not been about Donald Trump. It's been about Brett Kavanaugh.

It's an R-D issue, not a Trump-everyone else issue, and that's good for Republicans.

ENTEN: That's absolutely good because remember -- look, if you look back at elections over the last 30 years we're basically evenly split, right? We go back between Democratic presidents, Republican presidents -- Democrat-Republican.

And, Donald Trump has kind of been a little bit different, right? He came out of the gate with a very low approval rating. I'd argue the only reason he actually won in 2016 was because of the unpopularity of Hillary Clinton.

But if we're talking about the generic R versus the generic D, then Republicans are much more in the game. Democrats still have an advantage. I mean, Democrats still lead on

the generic congressional ballot, say by seven-eight percentage points. But that's down from where it was, say, last month at this time when they were leading by double-digits.

BERMAN: I just want to give people one update Erica before you jump in here, which is that we said we're 32 days until the election. We're less than three hours --

HILL: Yes.

BERMAN: Less than three hours from the first votes on Brett Kavanaugh.

HILL: Less than three hours, we know from Phil Mattingly -- our Phil Mattingly on the Hill.

Republicans are saying this morning they don't, at this hour with less than three hours to go, have the votes to get them there.

And yet, what's interesting is -- as we're gaining, especially these last four senators to see where they're going to go -- we heard from Heidi Heitkamp yesterday, her basically saying I had to be able to look myself in the mirror after I cast that vote.

How does that play with voters because this is very much a political vote as much as it is a vote for a Supreme Court justice?

ENTEN: Right. I mean, it really does depend on the state, right?

Fox News put out a poll earlier this week that suggested that more voters in the state of North Dakota were less likely to vote for Heidi Heitkamp because -- if she voted yes -- or voted no on Kavanaugh.

So I'm not sure how much I necessarily believe in those polls but she's clearly not making a political calculation here. She's making a personal decision based on her own personal beliefs.

One other thing I'd point out. We are still a month away --

HILL: Yes.

ENTEN: -- from the midterms. In this news cycle things can bounce around like crazy. I mean, we -- the running joke always is wow, that only happened a week ago -- oh, that only happened a few days ago.

It's quite possible if, say, Kavanaugh gets confirmed -- which I think it's the more likely scenario but certainly not --

HILL: Yes.

ENTEN: -- completely sure -- that voters are going to be on a completely different issue by the time the midterms come.

BERMAN: Yes. ENTEN: It could be much more about Donald Trump once again. And, indeed, we've seen Trump's own approval ratings, right -- where they were down last month after the McCain comments and now they're back -- now back up and for Kavanaugh.

BERMAN: Thirty-two days is an eternity and 2 1/2 hours when this vote is going to happen is an eternity. Who knows what will happen in the next 2 1/2 hours?

Not to by a cynic, once again, but Heidi Heitkamp in that same Fox News poll was trailing by what, 12 points.

ENTEN: Right.

BERMAN: So a cynic could look at that and say it doesn't matter. Her vote -- you know, whatever she decides in this case it's not going to affect whether she wins and loses in North Dakota. It doesn't look like she's going to win.

She's in a different position than, say, Joe Manchin --

ENTEN: Manchin.

BERMAN: -- in West Virginia. So compare these two states.

ENTEN: Right. I mean, look, Joe Manchin -- even though the presidential votes in 2016 were very similar in North Dakota and West Virginia, Joe Manchin's actually been running ahead in the polls by high single digits. But we've seen the same exact poll numbers about are you less likely or more likely to vote for Manchin if you'd say -- depending on how he votes on Kavanaugh.

[07:40:00] So he is in a much more vulnerable position insofar as that the politics actually matter more to him. And that's, I think, part of the reason why he's still undecided at this hour.

As someone said it wise on Twitter, whichever way the vote goes is the way that Joe Manchin's going to vote. He just doesn't want to be responsible --

HILL: Yes.

ENTEN: -- for anything.

HILL: Yes, exactly. He certainly doesn't want to be the deciding vote when we look at this here.

Is there anything -- I mean, how much of this in what you've seen out there is enough to push turnout out because we're still talking about a midterm election? And we talk about maybe it's enthusiasm, maybe it's anger, maybe it's the Supreme Court, but at the end of the day, the midterms are not known for high voter turnout.

Do you think that changes?

ENTEN: You know, I will say in a Pew Research Center poll that it did indicate that more people were enthusiastic about the Supreme Court than usual.

HILL: Yes.

ENTEN: That being said, if we look at say the difference between registered voters and likely voters before the Kavanaugh -- before this whole Kavanaugh mess kind of unfolded versus now, we, in fact, see no difference. That is, it doesn't seem like one side is gaining an advantage relative to the other.

Yes, overall enthusiasm may be up which may drive voter turnout up, but it doesn't seem like one side would necessarily benefit from that come November sixth.

BERMAN: Harry Enten -- I told you there is something about Harry.

HILL: There is something about Harry.

BERMAN: Thank you very much.

ENTEN: Next time I'm going to talk straight to the cartoon.

BERMAN: That's so dada. Way to go on that. Thank you, Harry.

So just how serious is the threat from Russia? We have new information on that front. New indictments, new answers from authorities around the world.

A reality check, next.

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[07:46:10] BERMAN: The world spoke to Vladimir Putin and what it said was cut it out. Several nations leveling deadly serious charges against Russia in a coordinated blast.

It was also a bit of a message to President Trump. If you thought you could take Putin at his word, don't.

Our senior political analyst John Avlon with a "Reality Check" -- sir.

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That's right.

All it took was 12 hours and yesterday, we got all the evidence needed to confront Russia and its agents for crimes it's always indignantly denied -- poisonings, hacks, media information campaigns.

U.K. was the first out of the gate, calling Russia a pariah state and accusing the Russian GRU of a range of cyberattacks, including ransomware that crippled Ukrainian businesses and the DNC server hack that helped disrupt our election.

But wait, there's more. It turns out that Russia is also the so- called "cyber-caliphate" -- a hacking collective previously blamed on ISIS. It's almost like you can't trust the trolls anymore.

Hours later, it was the Dutch blaming Russia an attack against the lab studying the poison used on a former Russia spy and his daughter. Four Russian agents were caught in Flugrante (ph) trying to hack the organization using Wi-Fi equipment piled into the back of a rental car. Not exactly James Bond stuff.

The Dutch also accused the DRU of trying to disrupt the MH17 investigation, widely believed to have been shot out of the sky by pro-Russia Ukrainian separatists.

Then it was the USA indicting seven Russian operatives, including the four mentioned by the Dutch, for having an international hacking field day. They targeted everything from a nuclear energy company and a Swiss chemical laboratory to spear phishing 250 athletes who had spoken out against Russia's state-sponsored doping program.

In each case there is tons of evidence, including this. A taxi receipt with a starting address "next door to GRU headquarters." It was speculated the Russian spy hadn't filed his expense report yet and, as we all know, that gets your every time.

But even when confronted with evidence, Russians reverted to type -- deny, deny, deny -- calling their accusers delusional and the charges, quote, "a diabolical perfume blend." Now, whether that's accidental or intended irony it is believed to be a perfume bottle that was used to hide the Skripal poison which nearly killed the British double agent and his daughter.

The litany of lies coming out of Russia and the attack is a case study in cahonas. First, the Russian Foreign Ministry vowed to assist in the investigation, then refused. Next, Russia's U.N. ambassador called the allegations of Russia involvement fake news.

And finally, the coup de gras. Russia identified the two civilians involved, put them on T.V., and said they were mere tourists -- innocent victims of an amazing coincidence. And then the pair demanded an apology.

Prime Minister Theresa May said simply "don't insult our intelligence."

But, British comic legend John Cleese might have put it better. Quote, "To be fair to Putin, just because one of the men who poisoned the Skripals was a Russian intelligence operator does not mean he was acting under orders. He may have really been an architectural tourist who then decided at the last minute to do some freelance poisoning."

That's just as plausible as the parade of nonsense coming out of Russia today. It's almost enough to make you think they're willing to lie about anything and wonder who would be foolish enough to believe it.

And that's your "Reality Check."

BERMAN: That question is leaving it hanging out there at the end there.

HILL: Linger. AVLON: That's right.

HILL: John, thank you.

AVLON: Take care.

HILL: Sheriff's deputies arrest a Florida man for allegedly threatening to kill members of Congress who don't vote to confirm Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

Authorities say the man posted the threatening messages on Facebook on at least three days last month. James Patrick also claiming he would shoot loved ones of the Congress members and law enforcement that responded to his home.

Authorities recovered a hunting rifle and handgun when searching his home.

BERMAN: Red tide has spread from Florida's Gulf Coast to its eastern coast, forcing some beaches in Miami-Dade County to close. Mayor Carlos Gimenez says the move was made in abundance -- in abundance of caution.

[07:50:00] Earlier in the week, red tide shut down a number of beaches in Palm Beach County with some remaining closed as of this morning.

Red tide is not only deadly to marine life, the algae bloom can also pose a threat to humans. It irritates the skin and causes respiratory problems.

HILL: This may be the last time that this bear cub -- we're going to show him to you -- there we go -- decides to follow through when he has, you know, an urge for some cheese balls. That's because -- oh, no, got head stuck in the jar. I hate it when that happens.

BERMAN: If I had a nickel for every time.

HILL: I mean, really. So, obviously, was trying to get the tasty treats.

Now, fortunately, Florida wildlife agents moved in quickly. All sorts of very different tactics here.

Ultimately, the important thing here we can't tell you, they freed the bear from the jar and we're told that the cub is OK. The cub was released back into the wild.

BERMAN: I don't see any cheese balls left in there so I don't think it will keep him from trying again.

HILL: I don't think so either unless he knows someone will come in and save him.

BERMAN: Cheese balls are very good. Cheese balls are worth getting your head stuck in a jar, and I speak from experience. HILL: Words of wisdom on a Friday for you.

BERMAN: All right, words of wisdom.

Speaking of that, we are less than three hours away now -- nearly 2 1/2 hours from when the Senate will cast its first votes on Brett Kavanaugh. And as we sit here we don't know which way this vote will go.

The votes of these four senators we're showing you, they're crucial. We're going to check in on the ground in their home states to find out which way they might be leaning, next.

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BERMAN: Less than three hours from the first crucial votes on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, and as we sit here this morning we don't know which way it will go.

Four crucial senators hold this nomination in their hands right now. And again, as we sit here, as of now, we don't know which way it will go.

CNN is told that the Republicans -- as of this moment, they do not have the votes yet.

HILL: But we still have 2 1/2 hours --

BERMAN: Yes, that's a long time.

HILL: -- and we know, anything can happen in 2 1/2 hours.

The holdouts, Republican senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Jeff Flake, and Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

Now that they have all seen that FBI report, is there any indication of which way they are leaning?

CNN reporters we have spread out from Maine to Alaska speaking to folks in these senator's states -- the people they represent.

Let's begin with CNN's Polo Sandoval who is in Portland, Maine this morning -- Polo.

POLO SANDOVAL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Erica, let me tell you there is a growing concern that Sen. Susan Collins could be -- again, I say could be leaning towards a yes vote. That's what we've heard from constituents here in Portland, Maine in the senator's home district here.

What we're seeing is this last-minute push to try to get their voices heard by constituents. We have seen protests on the streets here in Portland, Maine. We have seen phone calls flooding to the senator's Portland office, and also visitors stopping by.

I've heard time and time again from Democrats who have voted for the Republican senator in the past but are threatening of pulling back their support in the future if Sen. Collins votes yes.

[07:55:00] That being said, Sen. Collins' staff tells me that they have seen some support for Brett Kavanaugh. They've received phone calls urging the senator to vote yes, not only today but also over the weekend.

So two very different sides here, two very difference perspectives, but they both do agree that the stakes are high and there certainly will be a political price to pay regardless of how she votes.

A very similar situation happening in Anchorage, Alaska this morning where my colleague Gary Tuchman is.

Although Lisa Murkowski is a Republican, but in this state of Alaska she has significant bipartisan support. In her last reelection bid in 2016, she received a high percentage of Democratic and Independent votes.

Many people consider her a champion of women so it wasn't a big surprise that she invited Alaska women to her office yesterday on the eve of this vote. More than 100 women from Alaska flew from here in Anchorage to Washington. So many women showed up they had two sessions in her office.

Eighteen Alaska lawyers were inside for the first session and we have a window on the senator's decision-making process from that meeting from two of the lawyers inside.

One of the lawyers, who is a Democrat but has supported Murkowski, said when she left the meeting that she believed that Lisa Murkowski was a no -- no on Kavanaugh. That she would be surprised if she voted yes.

The other women not quite as strong but also optimistic, saying that when she went in she thought that Murkowski was a yes. When she came out, she thinks she's a no.

Is it wishful thinking? We'll find out very soon.

Now to my colleague Dan Simon in Phoenix, Arizona.

DAN SIMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, thanks, Gary.

What is Jeff Flake going to do? Well, we know yesterday, regarding the sexual assault allegation he said he has seen no additional corroboration. He also acknowledged that, at least in his eyes, this has been a thorough FBI investigation.

Meantime, here at his office in Phoenix, we did see a couple of dozen protesters. These are mainly women from advocacy groups.

We did see a couple of arrests -- women who were blocking the entrance to Sen. Flake's office. We did see a handful of counterprotesters as well.

As we know, Sen. Flake has been a polarizing figure here in Arizona with Republicans because of the criticism he has lobbed at President Trump. Now, at least in their eyes, he has a chance to redeem himself if he were to support Judge Kavanaugh. We will see what happens.

In the meantime, we'll send it now to Miguel Marquez in Charleston, West Virginia -- Miguel.

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Thank you there, Dan.

So a protester got into Sen. Manchin's face on Capitol Hill yesterday and said how can you vote yes on Kavanaugh? And he said how do you know I'm voting yes? How do you know how I'm voting?

This is the most -- one of the most, if not the most conservative Democrats in the Senate. He votes with Donald Trump more than any other Democratic senator. And he has also been a thorn in the side to the president on things like health care and the tax bill, for instance.

This has been hard-fought on both sides.

On the left, they have protested not only here in West Virginia but in Washington, D.C. On the right, they have said this is a state that voted for Donald Trump by 42 percent over Hillary Clinton. If he were really representing the state he would already have announced his support for Kavanaugh.

In some ways, for many conservatives here it is too late for Joe Manchin. But he has not said how he is going to vote -- John, Erica.

BERMAN: Yes. Senator Chuck Grassley, of course, the chair of the Judiciary Committee just said this is one vote that we probably won't know until the votes are actually cast.

Going down to the wire. We're about 90 minutes away from when the Senate will gavel into session. A little bit after that the first crucial votes on Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination and Chuck Grassley said we may not know which way it will go until the votes are actually cast.

We are following every lead and development on this story, so let's get to it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He is an incredible intellect, an incredible person.

SEN. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D), CONNECTICUT: Judges are supposed to put emotions aside. This op-ed in no way cleans up that basic failing.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There are four members who have not declared how they intend to vote.

SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY), SENATE MAJORITY LEADER: The FBI report did not corroborate any of the allegations.

SEN. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D), NEW YORK: I read the report. It was not intended to find the truth.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This wound is not going to heal quickly for the Supreme Court of the United States.

SARAH SANDERS, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Democrats, you made a mistake. It's going to show up in November.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Alisyn Camerota and John Berman.

BERMAN: All right, good morning and welcome to your NEW DAY. It's Friday, October fifth. It's 8:00 in the east.

Alisyn is off. Erica Hill joins me this morning. And it's on.

HILL: Yes.

BERMAN: It is on. The countdown is on to the first votes on the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to see if he will reach the Supreme Court. And we don't know -- we do not know which way it is headed as of 8:00 this morning.

People with direct knowledge tell CNN's Phil Mattingly that Republicans -- they don't have the votes yet. At this moment it all comes down to four senators -- three Republicans and one Democrat. At least two of them need to vote in favor of Brett Kavanaugh in order for him to be confirmed.

HILL: And just to put all of this in contact, yet another unprecedented moment --