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Michael's Apocalyptic Destruction In Mexico Beach, Florida; Trump Holds Bizarre Profanity-Laden Meeting With Kanye West; "The Forecast": Predictions about House And Senate Races In Midterm Elections; CNN "Reality Check": Will Apathy Kill The Youth Vote? Aired 7:30-8a ET

Aired October 12, 2018 - 07:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[07:30:00] (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANTHONY BOURDAIN, FORMER CNN HOST, "ANTHONY BOURDAIN: PARTS UNKNOWN": -- and you just generally don't approve.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

BOURDAIN: I think those are exactly the sort of places you should go.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Totally.

BOURDAIN: See who we're talking and where we're talking about here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: So, Jason, when you see this, given everything that's happened to you since then, just reflect on the comments you were making then and Tony, in general.

JASON REZAIAN, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST, OPINION WRITER, THE WASHINGTON POST: Well, I stick by those comments and I miss my friend deeply.

I think that it's an important moment to think about the sort of legacy and impact that he left with us, but also go back and look at those shows and learn so much about the world that we -- that we currently live in. And I think he was -- he was such a kind of chronicler of the -- of the human experience of the moment.

And, you know, it just -- every time I see that clip it gives me chills because it was -- it was, in the moment, a very important experience and opportunity for my wife and I, but it has grown into something that has been the thing that we're most identified with and that's something that I'll always be proud of.

BERMAN: Look, it gives me hope. It gives me hope that there are people like you willing to go shine a spotlight on regimes like that. To tell stories from inside.

Jamal Khashoggi, the same thing. It does give me hope even though there are dark moments like the one we're living through right now.

Jason Rezaian, thanks so much for being with us. I really do appreciate it.

REZAIAN: Thanks, John.

BERMAN: And everyone, be sure to watch the new episode of "ANTHONY BOURDAIN: PARTS UKNOWN," Sunday night, 9:00 p.m., right here on CNN.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: All right.

So, while President Trump is dealing with very serious crises like, of course, the missing journalist and that devastating hurricane, he did take time to meet with Kanye West. So we will talk about the bizarre Oval Office meeting, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:36:19] BERMAN: Mexico Beach, Florida -- look at that -- just flattened by Hurricane Michael. This was a once-scenic beachfront community. Old Florida, we've heard it been called over the last several days.

Now a future very much in question. They have so much rebuilding to do.

CNN's Miguel Marquez live there with the very latest. The sun rising -- these are some of the clearest pictures we've seen yet, Miguel.

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, it's absolutely devastated Florida at this point. I want to show you some -- just the typical damage here.

We drove in across the town yesterday. One hundred percent of this city is affected.

This is 98 -- that is a boat on 98. That is a house next to the boat. The top of the house next to a boat that has been pushed up against a condominium -- or maybe that's a hotel or apartment complex. It looks mostly intact but windows, doors, roof -- everything is blown out and off of that.

I want to show you where all of this is coming from -- the several blocks next to the beach. We have a camera up high that you can see sort of the immenseness -- the breadth of the damage across this area.

You see some houses peeking up. Most of those -- even those that survived are damaged extraordinarily heavy, especially on the side facing the beach where those -- where those winds were coming from. It just looks like a buzz saw was taken to one side of the house and sort of ripped it to shreds.

The biggest problem right now here in Mexico Beach may be the temperature. It's in the low 60s.

There are a lot of people who rode out the storm here. Some people got back in in the last 24 hours.

But it is cold, it is wet, and hypothermia might be a serious issue for a lot of people not only here but across the Panhandle.

Back to you guys.

BERMAN: All right, Miguel Marquez for us in Mexico Beach. Miguel, thanks so much.

We saw those aerial shots there. It looked like there were blocks -- blocks just gone.

For ways you can help those affected after Hurricane Michael, go to cnn.com/impact.

CAMEROTA: All right.

As people in Florida dealt with the destruction from Hurricane Michael, President Trump hosted Kanye West in the Oval Office. The meeting was strange, with Kanye West going on a 10-minute rant. Here's just a portion of it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KANYE WEST, RAPPER: WEST: I love Hillary. I love everyone, right? But the campaign, "I'm With Her" just didn't make me feel as a guy that didn't get to see my dad all the time, like a guy that could play catch with his son.

It was something about when I put this hat on it made me feel like Superman. You made a Superman. That was -- that's my favorite superhero and you made a Superman cape for me.

Also as a guy that looks up to you, looks up to Ralph Lauren, looks up to American industry guys -- non-political, no (bleep). Put the beep on it -- however you want to do it -- five seconds delay -- and just goes in and gets it done.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: All right, let's discuss this with former South Carolina House member and CNN commentator Bakari Sellers. And, Marc Short, who is the director (sic) for legislative affairs at the White House and is also a CNN political commentator.

Marc, I want to start with you.

MARC SHORT, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR, FORMER WHITE HOUSE DIRECTOR OF LEGISLATIVE AFFAIRS FOR PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Yes.

CAMEROTA: Is the Oval Office now open for profanity-laced appearances on national T.V. like that?

SHORT: No, it shouldn't be, Alisyn. But, you know, at the same time, the president has certainly opened the Oval Office more to a lot of meetings and I think it's probably good for Americans to see some of the conversations he has in there and the transparency. But you can't always control what somebody's going to say in that environment.

But no, of course, he shouldn't be having profanity-laced conversations live on camera.

CAMEROTA: I understand. I'm just referring to when Republicans used to talk about the decency of the Oval Office and you want to preserve it and used to rail against people visiting the Oval Office. And now, it just feels like -- I mean, on national T.V. hearing this rant.

[07:40:02] SHORT: Well, Alisyn, I think the president honestly is somebody who has always wanted to have the Oval Office more open to show it to not just members of Congress, but also the American people.

And as staffers, you would often fret about what might happen on camera inside the Oval Office. But he has an understanding of what the American people want to see and a flair for the moment.

CAMEROTA: We have -- that is fair. That -- those are true words.

But were you worried when you were there or other staffers about the respectability of the Oval Office and promoting (ph) it?

SHORT: I don't -- I -- you know, Alisyn, in all fairness, I don't think the president's ever disrespected the office there. I do think that he does want to have more meetings in there and more opportunity for the media to see the conversations happening there. But I don't think --

CAMEROTA: Was that a productive one?

SHORT: I don't -- I don't know. I think there's -- that's a question to be seen in the future, Alisyn.

I think the reason he was there was to discuss prison reform and that's honestly an issue that has not gotten as much attention that I do think if Democrats gain more seats in Congress could actually advance.

CAMEROTA: It's an important issue for sure, but I don't know that Kanye West is the best messenger for that.

SHORT: Well, again, I think that that was the intention is to say how can we draw more attention to this issue. It's one that CNN's own Van Jones helped to work with the White House on.

CAMEROTA: Yes, but today that's not what people are talking about.

But I do want to get Bakari in. Bakari, what do you think when you see that display yesterday?

BAKARI SELLERS, CNN COMMENTATOR, FORMER SOUTH CAROLINA HOUSE MEMBER: Well, I mean, just to harp on your point slightly, I know Republicans were pulling their eyeballs out when Barack Obama put his feet on the Resolute desk, so I'm not sure I think we have an ounce of hypocrisy there when you have Kanye West banging on the desk and cursing and yelling in the White House in the Oval Office.

But I think that that kind of masked the larger problem that we have. To Marc's point, we're supposed to be having a conversation about criminal justice reform and we -- and many of us, myself included, don't believe that Kanye West is someone who has the depth to tackle this issue or to take on this issue.

At not one point during this 10-minute soliloquy did we hear anything about ending the war on drugs, ending the prohibition on marijuana, ending the for -- ending or canceling out for-profit prisons, making sure that we have rehab for non-violent offenders. I mean, ending cash bail. The list goes on and on and on.

I'm not sure that he is the right one to have these conversations. If the president was serious -- and Marc probably has his ear -- then you would make sure he reads Michelle Alexander's book about mass incarceration, and make sure he has conversations with Doreen McKesson (ph), not just bring in a circus because that's what he brought in yesterday.

And a lot of us -- a lot of people -- not myself -- a lot of people are disappointed in Kanye West, but I had no level of expectation of him going into that office yesterday. I think he proved me right.

CAMEROTA: Marc, that wasn't a serious substantial conversation about prison reform yesterday. That was a reality show moment.

SHORT: It probably turned into more of a reality show moment. But, Alisyn, at the same time, I do think the president is sincere about advancing prison reform and I do think that's something that's going to happen.

CAMEROTA: I understand.

I mean, look, you understand that Democrats feel that there's a lot of hypocrisy that they witness because when -- you know, during the Obama administration -- in fact, during a hurricane, here is what President -- well then-Donald Trump -- tweeted about President Obama.

"Yesterday, Obama campaigned with Jay-Z and Springsteen while Hurricane Sandy victims across New York and New Jersey are still decimated by Sandy. Wrong!"

Obviously, Hurricane Michael was happening during this display in the Oval Office.

SHORT: The hurricane had come through and there's certainly a lot of hypocrisy in politics, Alisyn. At the same time, I do think that this president has been very forward in using his social media to make sure people are prepared for hurricanes, and he did.

After the hurricane had come through, in your cut rephrase, I think you've seen Barack Obama on your show talk about what the administration is doing, and that is more his responsibility. I don't think you can really hold the president accountable for having additional policy conversations in the White House at that point.

CAMEROTA: We're just getting word in and my producer is just telling me that the fatality number has just risen for Hurricane Michael. We were afraid it was going to. Brock Long just had told us -- he had warned us to prepare for this and, in fact, they are finding more people.

So the death toll is now 11. That is up from six. So, obviously, this morning as light comes up we have to prepare ourselves that things are going to get worse there.

Bakari, last word.

SELLERS: You know, yesterday was an embarrassing moment. It was an embarrassing moment for Kanye West, it was an embarrassing moment for the country.

You know, many African-Americans are finding themselves in a position where Donald Trump doesn't make us feel like Superman. In fact, there are many African-Americans, many gay Americans, many Muslim Americans, undocumented Americans, women in this country that Donald Trump makes feel less than human.

And so yesterday's display was disgusting but it won't stop our resolve to continue to push forward on issues that are -- that are crucial, like mass incarceration and like criminal justice reform.

I just wish that people would stop giving Kanye West all of this light and all of this platform because he's sucking the life and the energy out of this debate when we need to be having real, substantive discussions.

CAMEROTA: Bakari Sellers, Marc Short, thank you very much --

SHORT: Thanks.

CAMEROTA: -- for the perspective -- John.

BERMAN: I just want to make one note. Those five new deaths reported actually come from Virginia, not even Florida, not Mexico Beach. Five new deaths from Hurricane Michael in Virginia where the storm passed through overnight. So we're getting much more information on that and we'll bring it to you when it comes in.

[07:45:03] Can Democrats flip Congress in these midterm elections? Can they flip the House of Representatives?

Our Harry Enten -- he has been working on this fascinating new way to forecast. It's all going to debut. You're going to get answers you never even knew you had questions for, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: We are 25 days from the midterm elections are we are a launching a new tool to keep you informed.

(LAUGHTER)

I'm laughing because I'm now introducing Harry Enten after I say new tool.

CNN's "The Forecast" with Harry Enten is a daily prediction of the outcome of the individual House and Senate races leading up to the midterms. Harry Enten has put together this, basically, robot to predict the future.

CAMEROTA: He's working with a team of statisticians. CNN collected a vast amount of historical polling and voting data from public sources. Using that data, "The Forecast" predicts the outcome of midterm races and other topics of interest. This sounds very scientific.

There's something about Harry, so let's get the forecast with Harry -- hi.

[07:50:00] HARRY ENTEN, SENIOR WRITER AND ANALYST, CNN POLITICS: Hello, how are you?

CAMEROTA: This is very complicated. I'm glad you're driving this.

ENTEN: Well, I am going to drive this even though I don't have a driver's license. But fortunately, we're in the studio and not out on the road.

And the one thing I should just point out is this really was a team effort so there are just a few people I'd like to thank -- Sam Petulla, Brice Acree, and Parker Quinn who helped work with me.

BERMAN: And also his agent, his mom.

CAMEROTA: Oh my gosh, wow.

ENTEN: My mom, my --

BERMAN: Yes, Chad. Don't forget to --

CAMEROTA: What's happening?

BERMAN: -- thank Chad Lowe or whatever that is because that's always been an issue.

Who is going to win the House?

ENTEN: All right. So let's take a look.

Right now, the current House breakdown -- breaks down -- Republicans have a clear majority, 235 to 193.

What happens after November sixth?

Well, we think that the Democrats are going to have control. We think they're going to get 229 seats to Republicans' only 206. You need 218 for a majority.

So right now, we think that Democrats have the best chance for a majority.

Now, here's what I should point out. This forecast comes with a margin of error. So let's take a look at what possibly could happen, which is the GOP's best chance. It could be that Republicans actually maintain the majority. Their best chance -- best case is they have 230 seats to the Democrats' 205. This is something that I think is very important after 2016, to point out that these estimates have margins of error.

CAMEROTA: But that's a huge margin of error.

ENTEN: It is a huge margin of error. But look, I've looked back through history, we've looked at generic ballot polling since the mid- 40s.

This is simply the best that we can do and I'd rather be honest with the viewer -- honest with the audience and say you know what? We have what we think is the most likely scenario, which is this, but it could be as bad for the Democrats as this or it could be as good as this. They could get up to 260.

Let's say the generic ballot is way off. Let's say Democrats really overperform, they win all the close races, then they can get up to that number.

So there's a wide scenario. Remember, polls are not perfect. They are tools and we still have a little bit over three weeks to go where a lot of things can change.

BERMAN: And even in the worst-case scenario with Democrats, that is a seat gained for them on the 10-12 range, just not 20 to 30. So you can see the difference that makes.

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: Math matters more in the House. You can see waves breaking bigger in the House.

But you're also forecasting the Senate. What does that look like?

ENTEN: We are forecasting the Senate so keep in mind that right now, Republicans have 51 seats, the Democrats 49.

What do we think is the most likely scenario? We think it's actually Republicans are going to gain a seat. Remember, there are a lot of races in red states. Ten of them are Democratic incumbents running in states that Donald Trump won.

We think North Dakota -- if we look -- let's take a look at some of these close races right here. We think there are a bunch of close races.

Dean Heller -- that a lot of Democrats wanted to beat -- is actually up by a point right now. Missouri -- McCaskill leading by a point. Sinema leading by a point.

Not in this graphic, North Dakota, where we think Heidi Heitkamp's up by four points -- or down by four points, excuse me. That would be a flip to the Republicans. And, Tennessee and Texas, which are two states where Democrats were hopeful to make gains. Both -- in both of those states the Republicans are up by four or five points.

CAMEROTA: Then why were Democrats so excited? There was a flurry of excitement for a moment that Democrats might be able to take the Senate. But you're saying in the past few days things have shifted?

ENTEN: Yes. I would say that there's been a lot of movement in the polls away from the Democrats.

And one other thing I'd point out is that the best case -- if everything goes bad for Democrats, it could be that Republicans get 57 seats. Best case for Democrats, they could get up to 52. But that's just not the most likely scenario.

BERMAN: And basically, the forecast robot is saying that it is not likely that all the races will break the Democrats' way in this.

ENTEN: Not at this point.

BERMAN: And that's what it would take.

Harry Enten -- there is something about Harry.

Check out this new tool on the Web site. "The Forecast" is going to be available by 9:00 a.m. every day at cnn.com/forecast. Each forecast will include the range and certainty of the prediction, along with a daily column to break down what it means for Democrats, Republicans, and you.

CAMEROTA: But if you don't want to do that, you can just watch NEW DAY because Harry is on every morning with his forecast.

BERMAN: Because there is something about Harry.

CAMEROTA: Thanks, Harry.

ENTEN: Thank you.

BERMAN: So, if younger Americans voted, it could literally change the course of history, but that is a huge if. We'll get a reality check on that from John Avlon, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:55:55] CAMEROTA: OK. If young people showed up to vote, they could really move the needle based just on numbers alone. But whether they do or not or they will 25 days from now, that is the million- dollar question.

And, senior political analyst John Avlon has our "Reality Check." Hello, John.

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Hello, Ali. So here's the deal. We've got 25 days to the election and we have seen a surge in voter registration as deadlines came in more than a dozen states this week.

So, while Kanye went to the White House, Taylor Swift's Instagram call to arms motivated an additional 70,000 Americans, age 18 to 29, to register within 48 hours, according to the nonprofit vote.org. The group also said that almost 500,000 young voters registered on its site this cycle. That's the good news.

The bad news is that young people are, by far, the least likely to vote, especially in midterm elections. A new survey shows that just 35 percent of voters under 30 say they're absolutely certain to vote this November. Compare that to 81 percent of seniors.

Now, this clip from NBC's Jacob Soboroff talking to college students at Orange County pretty much sums it up.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JACOB SOBOROFF, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Is anybody here going to vote in the election on November sixth -- anybody, anybody?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AVLON: That's just sad, and that's why politicians think they can ignore young voters.

There's data to back up their dismissiveness. In 2014, the last midterms, only 16 percent of voters under 30 bothered to show up. That's the lowest since 1986. Compare that to 55 percent of voters over age 60.

We see this every year. The result, politicians are incentivized to focus on older folks' issues while ignoring long-term concerns like climate change.

Now, here's a dirty little secret. Most professional partisans like to see low turnout. It keeps the politics predictable. That's also why some politicians feel they can get away with voter suppression.

Take Georgia, where GOP nominee Brian Kemp is also the Secretary of State. An A.P. investigation found that his office canceled roughly 770,000 voter registrations in 2017 alone, and some 53,000 voter registration applications are still sitting in limbo.

Now, there are some positive signs of increased youth turnout in the primaries this year. For example, according to civic organization group CIRCLE, the unexpected victory of Ayanna Pressley in Massachusetts was driven by high turnout in younger and more diverse precincts.

In fact, there's been increased turnout in primaries overall this cycle, with Democrats seeing a 78 percent rise and Republicans, 23 percent, according to one Republican pollster. But here's a stat to keep in mind. If young voters actually bothered to go to the ballot box they could be the most influential voting bloc in the country, making up nearly 40 percent of the electorate. But when surveys show that 57 percent of millennials say that it's quote "essential to live in a democracy," that is a very big if.

We're in a fight against apathy and ignorance, folks. Just remember this. In a democracy, decisions are made by those who show up.

And that's your "Reality Check."

CAMEROTA: That's really sobering, John. I mean, all parents watching right now need to go and demand that their 18-year-olds get to the poll or they'll be grounded.

BERMAN: And young people need to pay attention. If you're going to complain, do something about it. You hold the power in your hands, right?

AVLON: That's right. Protesting is not sufficient. Get out and vote. It's your basic duty, folks.

BERMAN: All right, John. Thanks very much.

We do have breaking news on the death count from Hurricane Michael, so let's get right to it.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

BERMAN: All right, good morning, everyone, and welcome to your NEW DAY. It is Friday, October 12th, 8:00 in the east.

And we do have breaking news. The death toll is rising. Eleven now killed from Hurricane Michael.

Five new fatalities reported overnight and these are from Virginia. Hurricane Michael -- the remnants passed over Virginia, spawning suspected tornadoes there, and we just learned of five news deaths in Virginia. Think about how far away that is from Florida -- from the Panhandle that took the brunt of this storm.

Michael punished that region with unprecedented fury, leaving these communities, as you can see, just in ruins.

That's Mexico Beach there. What a surreal scene. That coastal community flattened by the storm, lives shattered.

More than 1.2 million customers are without power this morning in seven states.

CAMEROTA: There's also a major development in the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.