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New Day
Cruz and O'Rourke Step Up Campaigning; Latest Polls on Midterms; Cold Air Hits the Country. Aired 6:30-7a ET
Aired October 18, 2018 - 06:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[06:31:44] JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: So it might be the most watched Senate race in the country, or it may or may not be close, but it is definitely a new level of mean when you have the Democrat quoting the president to go after a Republican, you know something's up. Beto O'Rourke, Ted Cruz, the Texas showdown.
CNN's Ed Lavandera live in McAllen with the very latest.
Ed.
ED LAVANDERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: John, this is a state that is not used to any kind of close elections or any kind of a state-wide election getting this much attention. Beto O'Rourke, the Democratic darling and savior of Texas, the Texas Democratic Party, has unleashed a new round of ads saying that Ted Cruz is selling paranoia and fear instead of solutions.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And my friend Senator Ted Cruz.
LAVANDERA (voice over): Ted Cruz has mastered the postcard sized political punch.
SEN. TED CRUZ (R), TEXAS: If you want a big government, gun-grabbing liberal, well, the Democrats have given you one.
LAVANDERA: The rapid fire jabs at Democrat Beto O'Rourke are designed to deflate the El Paso congressman's soring campaign.
CRUZ: On job-killing regulations, he's for them, I'm against them. Guns, I'm for them, he's against them. On taxes, he's for them, I'm against them.
LAVANDERA (on camera): In the last few weeks, Senator Cruz has unleashed a wave of television ads criticizing O'Rourke, painting him as dangerous and radically liberal. O'Rourke has been hesitant to fire back directly, saying he prefers to follow the positive path that has brought him to this point so far.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Beto O'Rourke is no friend of Texas energy. LAVANDERA (voice over): The Cruz television campaign and laser-focused message seem to have halted O'Rourke's forward march in the polls. A CNN poll shows O'Rourke seven points behind.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Beto O'Rourke wants to be a senator.
O'ROURKE: (EXPLETIVE DELETED).
LAVANDERA: For weeks, as O'Rourke has literally run and barnstormed through every corner of the state, we've asked him how he would respond to the Cruz campaign's criticisms, which seem to be working?
LAVANDERA (on camera): Are you worried that those critiques and those -- and those things are going to stick?
O'ROURKE: Yes.
LAVANDERA: Are you fighting back at them?
O'ROURKE: I think people are stick of the pettiness and the partisanship and the smallness.
LAVANDERA: Can you take the gloves off and fight a little bit tougher and dirtier if you have to?
O'ROURKE: We're fighting for a positive future for this country. We're not fighting against anyone. It's not against another party.
LAVANDERA (voice over): But with early voting starting next week, O'Rourke is shedding the nice guy approach.
O'ROURKE: Senator Cruz is not going to be honest with you. He's going to make up positions and votes that I've never held or have ever taken. He's dishonest. That's why the president called him lyin' Ted and it's why the nickname stuck, because it's true.
LAVANDERA: Democratic strategist Harold Cook worked for Ann Richards, one of the last Democrats to hold state-wide office in Texas. Cook says O'Rourke must sharpen his attacks before it's too late.
HAROLD COOK, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: You can be high-minded while you're drawing a clear contrast between yourself and your opponent.
LAVANDERA (on camera): And Beto hasn't done enough of that?
COOK: He hasn't done it yet and he needs to get on it because it's time.
LAVANDERA (voice over): An anti-Cruz PAC has rolled out an ad roasting Cruz for cozying up to President Trump, who once said the Texas senator had done nothing for Texas.
[06:35:07] UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If somebody called my wife a dog and said my daddy was in on the Kennedy assassination, I wouldn't be kissing their ass.
LAVANDERA: O'Rourke has rarely talked about Ted Cruz and President Trump in his campaign speeches. But in recent days, that has changed.
O'ROURKE: We need a full-time senator.
LAVANDERA: He ripped into Cruz for shutting down the federal government and rolling back health care protections, and even unleashed his sharpest criticism yet of the Texas senator for campaigning with the president.
O'ROURKE: Senator Cruz will put his political ambition, his prospects in the next election ahead of anything else, including his family, including those he's sworn to represent here in Texas. Texas has lost its voice in the U.S. Senate in Senator Cruz.
LAVANDERA: The showdown will continue for another three weeks, in a race that's captivated a state not used to this kind of political clash.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
LAVANDERA: And, Erica and John, Cruz is really focused on conservative voters across the state. He feels that if he can turn out those voters, that will be enough to carry him to victory. O'Rourke is focused on generating new voters and also frustrated perhaps Republican Trump voters who are not happy with the direction this administration is taking, hoping he can turn those people out. But the Cruz campaign feels confident that Beto O'Rourke is simply too liberal for Texas voters. In fact, one campaign manager said a few days ago that Beto O'Rourke has made his liberal bed and tucked himself in it.
John and Erica.
ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: There we have it.
BERMAN: That's really taking that metaphor like that extra level.
HILL: Yes.
BERMAN: Tucking yourself in here a little bit.
HILL: Well, everything's bigger in Texas, so it makes sense.
BERMAN: It does make sense.
Ed Lavandera, thanks very much.
HILL: Be sure to watch CNN's live town hall tonight with Beto O'Rourke, Dana Bash moderates, at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on CNN. A similar invitation was made to Senator Ted Cruz.
BERMAN: So, if you've been listening, Texas might be a place where Democrats had high hopes, only to have their hearts broker. There is a similar state for Republicans. Which state is that? You're going to have to stick around. There's something about Harry, next.
HILL: OH, yes. Plus, Senator Heidi Heitkamp apologizing for a campaign ad that mistakenly identified several women as abuse survivors. One of the women named in that ad joins us ahead.
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[06:41:25] BERMAN: If there is one thing I have heard from Republican insiders the last few weeks is, look at New Jersey. Democratic Senator Bob Menendez is in trouble there. He could go down in that traditionally blue state.
Well, is that true? Harry Enten is here for if not a cold shower for Republicans, at least a room temperature shower. There is something about Harry.
What do you see in New Jersey?
HARRY ENTEN, CNN POLITICS SENIOR WRITER AND ANALYST: All right, so let's take a look at the latest poll from the state. This was a Quinnipiac poll that came out yesterday. And this race is actually surprisingly close in this poll. We've got 51 percent for Senator Bob Menendez. Bob Hugin, the Republican candidate, at 44 percent. That is much closer than I think a lot of us expected at the beginning of the year. Remember, Bob Menendez won by 20 points six years ago. The political environment's even more favorable for Democrats now. But he's vastly underperforming where he was six years ago.
Now, the question is, why is that? Well, part of that is if we look at the favorable ratings, Bob Menendez is not a well-liked individual. He favorable rating is just 36 percent compared to an unfavorable rating of 52 percent. That's very bad for a Democrat in a blue state New Jersey.
Now, as we know, there was that corruption trial. Most of the counts that came out as a hung jury. And clearly that has stuck with Bob Menendez because he is not popular.
Now, I guess the bigger question is, how is it then that Bob Menendez is actually winning this race given how unpopular he is? Well, you know, sometimes politics are not just a referendum, they are a choice. And what do we have here? Well, we see that Bob Menendez, first of all, even if people don't like him that much, they still approve of his job slightly more than they disapprove of his job. This is in a previous Quinnipiac poll. But, more than that, the president of the United States is really, really disliked. His approval rating is just 35, compared to 46 for Menendez. And granted I'm not that great at math, but 46 is higher than 35 percent.
BERMAN: You're not good at math? You're telling us now? Now you're telling us you're not good at math?
HILL: We've been relying on your math skills for some time, but no pressure.
ENTEN: No pressure. No pressure at all. So when it sort of comes all the way out, this is what I am forecasting right now based upon all the polls, and that is that Bob Menendez is going to win by about 9 percentage points. So slightly higher than the Quinnipiac poll. But, still, not that strong of a victory.
BERMAN: It should be for a Democrat. Way -- but nine, by the way, isn't all that close. But in New Jersey, it's kind of close.
ENTEN: It's especially close.
Now, I'm going to ask you a question now and I'm going to ask you, what was special about the year 1972?
BERMAN: I was born that year.
ENTEN: That's --
HILL: That's a great year.
BERMAN: It was a good year.
HILL: My parents got married that year.
BERMAN: The Watergate break-in.
HILL: Oh, there was that.
BERMAN: Yes.
HILL: Yes. A lot going on, '72.
ENTEN: OK, and I believe the A's won their first of three World Series in a row.
BERMAN: Yes.
ENTEN: What also was special about 1972? It was the last time that New Jersey elected a Republican senator. So that's the political history that we're going up against.
More than that, let's take a look at another interesting forecast out. Remember yesterday I showed you that graphic about what happens when say the Cook Political Report or CNN rates a race leaning towards one party, they win 96 percent of the time. Well, guess what, that's exactly where Cook and CNN right now are rating this race, leaning Democratic. And so, you know, there's just a lot of political history that Bob Hugin is going up against.
BERMAN: Fascinating to see. So Republicans may be hoping here, but like Democrats in Texas, ultimately you think they'll be disappointed.
Let me ask you, you have your daily House forecast. Where are we today?
ENTEN: So, let's take a look. A daily House forecast, right now we have Democrats at 227 to Republicans at 208. Hey, Republicans gained a little bit since yesterday. Why is that? The generic ballot. The generic congressional ballot, which is a pretty good test of the national environment, has slipped slightly towards the Republicans. And so if that continues to move, if say we get a point movement or two point movement, that could tighten even more so.
[06:45:08] HILL: So they look at that. There's also the Senate -- the Senate forecast.
ENTEN: There is also -- so the Senate forecast right now, it's the same as it was.
HILL: Right.
ENTEN: No change since yesterday. Kind of a little boring. But Republicans at 52, Democrats at 48. That, of course, counts a win for Bob Menendez in New Jersey. But here's the thing that I keep pointing out, and that is that there is a wide margin of error with this estimate. There are a lot of close races. I believe it is nine races that are within 6 percentage points at this particular point.
So, Democrats, if -- let's say they were able to sweep the board and win all the close races, they could get 53 seats. They could. It's just not that likely. But, by the same token, if Republicans sweep all the close races, they get 57 seats, and that would be a huge majority.
And just imagine that for a second. Let's say Republicans get 57 seats and let's say the House forecast is exactly right and Democrats get 227 seats, what type of message is that following the midterms? Is it that Donald Trump defied political gravity or was it merely that the Senate math is so much different than the House?
BERMAN: I suspect you'll hear two different arguments, one from Democrats and one from Republicans.
I just want to know here, two days ago we were at 229 for Democrats.
ENTEN: Yes.
BERMAN: It's not a huge change. But the way you do your forecast, it's a little bit of a change. The trend is not a positive one for Democrats. If that continues over the next few weeks --
ENTEN: Right. We still have a little -- a little less than three weeks to go. If that continue, we could be looking at a very close race on election night. And that's part of the reason why, you know, if we were looking at a best GOP scenario, this probably won't happen. But this is kind of the bottom baseline.
BERMAN: And that's still a Democratic pickup, but not the pickup they want.
ENTEN: They need 218.
BERMAN: There is always something about Harry. Thank you very, very much for that. Harry's forecast is available each day by 9:00 a.m. at cnn.com/forecast.
HILL: No winner again in last night's Powerball drawing. The Powerball and the Mega Millions jackpots are soaring. That means you have a chance. We all do.
BERMAN: You do not have a chance.
HILL: That is not true.
BERMAN: You don't have any chance.
HILL: Berman, way to dash peoples' dreams at 6:46 in the morning.
BERMAN: If you're up at 6:46, you don't have dreams.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[06:51:13] HILL: It's true. It's officially time for that cold weather gear. The coat. Maybe you want a hat today.
BERMAN: Gloves.
HILL: Personally I need -- I'm a mitten girl because my -- I have very poor circulation, but that's a story for another day.
BERMAN: Scarfs.
HILL: Always a scarf.
BERMAN: Mufflers. What do we call --
HILL: A muffler, yes. Perhaps some earmuffs. Berman is a fan of the earmuffs.
BERMAN: Yes.
HILL: Bottom line, it's getting cold outside because we know it's fall except that it just feels sort of abrupt.
CNN's meteorologist Jennifer Gray is here with our forecast.
And I'm guessing that we are now in cold season officially.
JENNIFER GRAY, AMS METEOROLOGIST: I think we're officially there. And I agree with you, I'm a mitten girl as well.
But, yes, the cold temperatures are going to be here to stay for a while. We'll have some brief little warmups here and there, but all in all temperatures will continue that swing of getting cooler every couple of days. So that cold air has definitely settled into portions of New England with temperatures this morning at a cool 43 degrees in New York, 40 in Boston. Look at this, temperatures above freezing. We did have some reports of some snow in upstate New York and some of that did accumulate just a little bit. So we're definitely feeling the season just change. High of 48 today in New York. Your average is 63. So well below normal. Boston at 47, should be at 61. Burlington at 41, should be at 56. So temperatures even below where they should be this time of year.
We will have a brief warmup in the Northeast before this next shot of cold air arrives on Sunday. So we'll get that reinforcing cold air by the end of the weekend.
John.
BERMAN: All right, Jennifer, thanks very much.
The death toll is rising to 21 in an attack at a college in Crimea. Russian state media says that 16 students, including the attacker, and five college employees were killed. Dozens of people were injured and remain hospitalized. Authorities say the 18-year-old suspect went on a shooting rampage and detonated a bomb before killing himself. And new surveillance video captures the attacker buying shotgun shells just days before. Russian state media reports that investigators are looking at possible accomplices.
HILL: The former president of USA Gymnastics arrested in Tennessee on charges he tampered with evidence in the Larry Nassar sexual abuse case. The Texas district attorney says Steve Penny ordered documents related to Nassar removed from the training center at the Karolyi Ranch. He's now awaiting extradition back to Texas. If convicted, Penny could get up to ten years in prison.
BERMAN: So there were no winners in Wednesday's Powerball drawing. The jackpot is now soaring to $430 million for Saturday's drawing. And that's less than half of what a Mega Millions ticket could be worth. That jackpot is now a record $900 million for tomorrow night's drawing. So you have to choose which ticket you will go not win with.
HILL: Listen, you don't have to choose. You buy one of each.
BERMAN: You can buy one of each and not win with both?
HILL: John Berman, I'm going to take you to the convenience store. There's one right down --
BERMAN: You're not going to win. You're not going to win.
HILL: Maybe not.
BERMAN: You're not going to win.
HILL: But you can't win if you don't play.
BERMAN: And if you get into a pool, you're asking for a lawsuit. So not only will you not win, but you're likely to get sued.
HILL: John Berman, not participating in the office pool. And won't you be sad when we all win?
BERMAN: They -- no one asked me. No one asked me. HILL: Yes.
BERMAN: Which says something else about me in general.
HILL: Again, a separate discussion.
Late night laughs are next. Here's a taste.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAMES CORDON, HOST, "THE LATE LATE SHOW WITH JAMES CORDON": Trump says he won't accept the blame if Republicans do poorly in the midterms. He says winning elections isn't his responsibility, it's Vladimir Putin's.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[06:58:34] BERMAN: So, the late night comics had some friends -- fun --
HILL: Fun.
BERMAN: Fun, I should say.
HILL: They have fun.
BERMAN: They have friends also -- with President Trump. Here's late night laughs.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAMES CORDON, HOST, "THE LATE LATE SHOW WITH JAMES CORDON": Trump says he won't accept the blame if Republicans do poorly in the midterms. He says winning elections isn't his responsibility, it's Vladimir Putin's.
STEPHEN COLBERT, HOST, "THE LATE SHOW WITH STEPHEN COLBERT": Our president sat down with the Associated Press and it started on friendly terms with the interviewer saying, thank you for doing this, to which Trump replied, what are you going to do in six and a half years with a normal, boring person here? I don't know, dance in the streets?
CORDON: Trump went on to defend his knack for science by explaining that he had an uncle who was an MIT professor for many years, even though Trump admits they never once talked about climate change. Trump knows science because his uncle was a professor. My uncle can play the tuba. You know what I can't do? Play the bloody tuba.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BERMAN: Only because he never tried. He could play the tuba if he tried.
HILL: If anybody can, it's James Cordon.
BERMAN: It's James Cordon.
HILL: Yes, I think --
BERMAN: He's very skilled.
HILL: Yes.
Thanks to our international viewers for watching. For you CNN "TALK" is next. Here in the U.S., the White House and Saudi Arabia trying to get their stories straight, literally, on the apparent murder of a journalist. NEW DAY continues right now.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And the president, once again, said he was going to take a wait and see approach.
[07:00:00] DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We need Saudi Arabia in our fight against terrorism. We're getting to the bottom of it.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I cannot imagine anyone doing that without MBS having said, make this happen.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Pompeo told the crown prince it's his responsibility.
