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Fifteen Days Till Midterm Elections; Trump Approval Rises; Writing off Transgender People; Jersey Brings Child to Tears. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired October 22, 2018 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:33:25] JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Early voting begins now.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Right now.

BERMAN: In Texas and Florida. Fifteen days until the midterms. But in many ways, it's on. It's on.

CAMEROTA: It's starting right now.

BERMAN: It's on.

Let's bet "The Bottom Line" with Ron Brownstein, CNN's senior political analyst, senior editor at "The Atlantic."

And, Ron, what is the one number to you that tells the story of where this election sits this morning?

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I'd say the one word, divergence. We have demographic divergence that is producing geographic divergence that I think is the dominant force in the final stage of this election. If you look at the polling that came out yesterday, the NBC/"Wall Street Journal" poll, it is really striking, John. Democrats are up 70 points among African-Americans in the battle for Congress. They're up 40 points among Latinos. And they are up 19 points, 55-36, among college educated white voters.

On the other side, there's just one other side, Republicans are up 25 points among non-college white voters. And, in particular, that gap between college and non-college white voters is by far the widest we have measured in a -- in a modern midterm. And what that points to is an election where Republicans are facing enormous venerability in diverse suburbs around the major metropolitan areas, but Democrats, given the Republican's strength in those blue collar communities, are seeing some of the seats that they hope to contest further out in more small town, rural, ex-urban (ph), working class places fall off the board. And that means we're going to -- we're looking, in essence, at two electrics. One part of the America, it seems to me, is poised to repudiate Donald Trump and another part of America is poised to reaffirm their commitment to him. Quite a divide ahead.

[08:35:01] CAMEROTA: That is -- the way you framed it, Ron, is so fascinating.

But the one that is poised to support President Trump, are you saying that they have the margin advantage, the more enthusiasm, the non- college educated whites?

BROWNSTEIN: No. No, they're both -- no, they're both -- that's what's extraordinary about this election. You have enormous enthusiasm on both sides. I mean, look, Democrats have enough white collar suburban opportunities around major metropolitan areas to win back the house. But if they don't win much beyond that in those blue collar small town rural places, it doesn't leave them a lot of margin for error in those white collar places. They can't leave many of those opportunities on the table in the suburbs of Philadelphia, or in Minneapolis, or Chicago, or Orange County. There's enough there. But if the -- if, in essence, they have to win back the majority solely on half of the playing field, it doesn't leave them a lot of room to have things go wrong.

And, you know, I think what we're seeing here is just this -- just all of the divisions that have been building in American politics since the 1990s were accelerated and intensified in 2016. And here they are reaffirming and even deepening in 2018. And it is possible we come out of this election really with, as I say, a thorough repudiation of Trump and Trumpism in many of the major metropolitan areas, Republicans losing a lot of white collar suburban seats that they've held for years, but very few dents in their fortress, their control of places beyond that and thus the gap between them looking even bigger and more imposing.

BERMAN: And it might be close. And it might be closer --

BROWNSTEIN: It might be very close.

BERMAN: Than Democrats had hoped or thought it might be two months ago heading in.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: They may still have enough. But it -- it's close.

And, Ron, one of the reasons why --

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: It appears to be closer than some Democrats and Republicans thought it might be is that the president's approval rating is headed up.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: "The Wall Street Journal"/NBC News has it at 47 percent. That's the high end of where we've seen it. It might not be that high.

BROWNSTEIN: Right.

BERMAN: But every other poll has it rising as well. The impact there? BROWNSTEIN: Right. Well, look, it's critical. And it's inextricably

rooted in what I'm talking about.

The NBC News/"Wall Street Journal" poll has the president's approval rating among non-college whites up to 65 percent, which is in essence his vote in 2016 among them, according to the exit polls. On the other hand, his vote -- his approval rating among non-college whites is still, even in this poll, John, the overall good number is still only 38 percent, which is 10 points below his vote in 2016. And, again, that's what points you toward this potential of a very split verdict where blue collar, small town, or any district that has a large number of blue collar voters, blue collar white voters, is -- looks like it's going to be tough for Democrats, including places they thought they could compete in.

On the other hand, when you're down to 38 percent overall among college whites and you're facing an historic deficit for the Republican among college-educated white women, that is what is fueling the Democratic opportunity in these inner suburban seats. And the president is inextricably rooted in this.

It is possible that 90 percent of the people who approve of Trump will vote Republican, 90 percent of the people who disapprove of Trump will vote Democratic. We've been running at about 85 to 87 percent historically over the last several midterms, which is pretty high by itself. But it could be even higher this year because feelings about him are just so intense.

And, again, you will have, I think, the potential for two very different elections, one simultaneously repudiating and doubling down or reaffirming their commitment to the president, pointing toward just an absolute battle of the bulge battle in 2020.

CAMEROTA: Ron, you couldn't have framed it better for everyone, as we begin in earnest these midterm elections. Thank you very much, Ron Brownstein.

BROWNSTEIN: Thanks, Alisyn.

BERMAN: Go Red Sox.

CAMEROTA: Wow, you snuck it in.

BERMAN: Well, he's in Los Angeles and the Dodgers are playing the Red Sox.

CAMEROTA: I see.

BERMAN: So I said, go Red Sox.

CAMEROTA: OK. That actually makes sense.

BERMAN: There's context.

CAMEROTA: Yes, there's context. Thank you. A Trump administration proposal could be the biggest rollback yet of

LGBT rights in this country. But if you can believe it, there's more. A CNN "Reality Check," next.

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[08:42:57] CAMEROTA: "The New York Times" is reporting that a Trump administration plan could erase the definition of transgender. So why are they considering this, and why now?

We have CNN's senior political analyst John Avlon and our "Reality Check."

Hi, John.

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Hi, Ali.

So, remember this?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I will do everything in my power to protect our LGBTQ citizens.

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AVLON: Well, that was then and this is now. "The New York Times" reporting the Trump administration wants to legally define transgender out of existence by officially recognizing only a person's gender at birth. So even if a person has transitioned, they could be retroactively required to be identified as whatever gender they were born as, regardless of physical changes or how they choose to be identified. So, Caitlyn would still be Bruce to the U.S. government.

This is just the latest attack on several Obama policies that expanded protections against sex discrimination to cover gender identity in areas like housing, education and the military.

So, why now? Well, it's play to the base culture war politics two weeks before the midterms.

Remember, it was just over three years ago that same-sex marriage became legal in this country. So now the wedge issue has moved to trans rights. And conservative sites love to mock the issue of gender identity, symbolized by FaceBook's dozens of gender options. And while some liberals embrace a myriad of gender pronouns, for many conservatives, and some moderates, it's a potent example of the PC culture that Trump constantly attacks to great effect.

Republicans want to benefit from this backlash. And it's an easy target. Just look at the numbers. Transgender folks make up an estimated 0.4 percent of American adults, or 1.4 million people. That's still a lot of our fellow citizens, but it's many fewer than the millions of gay and lesbian Americans who most people know as friends, family and co-workers. This is simply picking on minority rights to try to win the popular vote. The last time I checked, self- determination was a pretty basic American value rooted in freedom and equality.

Now, President Trump has also been playing up the caravan of asylum seekers from Central America, pushing it as a threat at rallies, in tweets and with plenty of amplification from conservative media. This is just more play to the base panic rooted in fear and anger, rather than any reality that these asylum seekers are going to rush the border.

[08:45:16] But when Democrats have as much as a 13-point advantage on the generic ballot, Republicans feel they need to fire up the base and inflame negative partisanship, which means reminding voters who don't love Trump why they don't like liberal Democrats that much either. It's a classic distraction in division and it can depress turnout among independents as well as pumping up the conservative base.

But there are going to be a lot of crazy claims between now and Election Day. Bigotry, lies and fear-based appeals deserve to be called out. So, vote and press the next Congress for a comprehensive non-discrimination act, which has had bipartisan support in the past so that people's lives can't be used as a political football by future administrations.

And that's your "Reality Check."

CAMEROTA: Very interesting, John. I mean they can take away the status but they can't take away the experience. And maybe people will vote on that.

AVLON: It's really just about this rollback of rights at a time when we're still having a gay civil rights movement in this country. It's a culture war hot button issue and it really is just political two weeks out.

BERMAN: Yes, exactly. The timing here is the story more than anything else two weeks before an election.

John, thanks very much.

So we have a little taste of the best thing ever. A football fan gets a gift he will never forget -- oh, God -- from an inspiring NFL star. It's getting a little dusty in here. "The Good Stuff" is next.

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[08:50:39] BERMAN: So, it is time for "The Good Stuff." Eleven-year- old Daniel Carrillo got an emotional gift on his birthday when he received a jersey of Seattle Seahawks star Shaquem Griffin, who plays football with just one hand, like him.

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UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, Daniel.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: So the video quickly went viral. And thanks to Seahawks fan Justin Smith (ph), Griffin and his family got to see Daniel's heartwarming reaction. Griffin was so touched that he filmed a special message just for Daniel.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SHAQUEM GRIFFIN , SEATTLE SEAHAWKS LINEBACKER: Hey, what's up, Daniel? Shaquem here. And I just want to say happy birthday. I've seen the video, man, and it was very touching. I started watching it (INAUDIBLE) a lot of fans and stuff, but very touching, man. I hope we can get you down to a game or something. I'm hoping to meet you one day. I'll be seeing you soon, Daniel. Happy birthday again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: So Daniel and his mom, Maylissa, join us right now.

Daniel, thank you so much for being with us. I was one of the many thousands of people who got choked up when we saw the video of you opening your present and seeing the jersey, which you're now wearing, obviously. So just tell us what was going through your mind when you first saw it?

DANIEL CARRILLO, RECEIVED SHAQUEM GRIFFIN JERSEY FOR BIRTHDAY: Well, when I -- well, I first thought that it was going to be -- well, I was surprised when I first got the jersey and then even more surprised and more emotional after all this started happening.

BERMAN: It's an awesome jersey. And Shaquem is an awesome player.

D. CARRILLO: Thank you. Thank you.

BERMAN: Why don't you tell me what he means to you?

D. CARRILLO: He means -- my -- he means my inspiration to me. I don't know.

BERMAN: No, I can feel it. You know, watching you open that present and seeing the jersey, you can feel that it's just more than a football jersey, that there's a connection there.

Maylissa, why don't you tell us about Daniel and his condition and why you thought this shirt would be the perfect present.

MAYLISSA CARRILLO, DANIEL'S MOTHER: So, Daniel was born with ABS, which is amniotic downs syndrome. And he's been like any other kids. He's never let anything stop him. And when Shaquem was drafted to the NFL, we -- we got kind of excited. His Aunt Wendy (ph) and I talked about, we've got to get this kid to the game because she's an avid Seahawks fan. We were 49ers fans. I'm thinking that's changed now. And she says, I'm going to get him a jersey. And it just kind of went from there.

And it's been an amazing experience. He's -- Daniel plays football himself. They're in an undefeated season this year. They're Division I league champs. It's pretty exciting. He's done amazing things.

BERMAN: Daniel, when you watch Shaquem play football with one hand, like you, what do you think of him?

D. CARRILLO: It's pretty cool that he's like me and he can do stuff I can with one hand.

BERMAN: Maylissa, I found Shaquem's story so inspiring over the last few months, watching his progress from the draft to the NFL. And every time he goes out on the field, he's not going to let anything stand in his way. You know, he's playing football and no one is going to stop him.

M. CARRILLO: Yes, exactly. That's one of the things that we really appreciate about Shaquem is showing that everyone that he can do anything and nothing is going to stop him. It gives Daniel the inspiration to do the same things.

BERMAN: So, Daniel, I know it's early in Redding, California. No one likes to get up early, let alone 6:00 a.m. here. You're going to go see a game. You're going to go see him play, right?

D. CARRILLO: Yes.

BERMAN: Now, you, I think, were a 49ers fan, right, and now you're going to see the 49ers --

D. CARRILLO: I was.

BERMAN: You're going to see the 49ers play the Seahawks and Shaquem. Who are you going to root for in the game?

D. CARRILLO: I don't know.

[08:55:03] BERMAN: You don't know? We just saw you opening the shirt there. You're wearing (INAUDIBLE).

D. CARRILLO: I know.

BERMAN: But you're still not going to root for his team?

D. CARRILLO: I'm going to root for him.

BERMAN: Well, I think that's awesome. I think we're all rooting for Shaquem Griffin. And, more importantly, Daniel, we're all rooting for you. We're really impressed by you.

Thank you so much for sharing this moment and sharing, I think, the sense of feeling that came with it. As I said, everyone I know, every grizzled, you know, big, burly football fan I know got a lump in their throat when they saw that video. So thanks for that, guys. Appreciate you being with us.

M. CARRILLO: Thank you.

D. CARRILLO: You're welcome.

CAMEROTA: I thought we might need these.

BERMAN: I was -- I just couldn't believe how moved he was by seeing that jersey when he opened it.

CAMEROTA: I know. It was so beautiful. I mean everybody is looking for a connection in life, you know.

BERMAN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: And with -- in his situation, I don't know how many opportunities he has to have somebody with his exact situation. And that was just beautiful.

BERMAN: It was perfect.

all right, we have major breaking news at CNN this morning. An exclusive, which really calls into question every explanation the Saudis have given about the death of "Washington Post" journalist Jamal Khashoggi. That's next.

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[09:00:08] JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: A very good Monday morning to you. I'm Jim Sciutto in Washington.

The president facing two very big foreign policy tests this morning.