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Governor Races Carry High Stakes; Trump's War with Media; Brazil Elects Hard-Right President. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired October 30, 2018 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:32:10] JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Midterm elections one week away exactly. And if you were to think there are no governor's races, why, you'd be wrong. That's just not reality.

Senior political analyst John Avlon, in fact, has the "Reality Check."

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I appreciate that.

So, 36 governor mansions are up for grabs this cycle, with massive implications for the next four years, and insights into the underlying direction of our country. Now, Republicans currently control 33 governorships, Democrats 16, and an independent in one, Alaska. The highest profile races are in Florida and Georgia, where pioneering African-American candidates are making the case to lead states in the deep south. In Florida, progressive Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum is facing Trump Republican Ron DeSantis. Gillum's leading in CNN's poll by 12 points. And seems to be helping incumbent Senator Bill Nelson.

In Georgia, Stacey Abrams, who would be the nation's first female African-American governor, is in a tight race against Secretary of State Brian Kemp. Kemp's overseeing the election process. And his office has purged hundreds of thousands of names from the state's voter rolls.

But very little attention has been given to another possible first, Colorado, where Congressman Jared Polis is leading state treasurer Walker Stapleton. Polis would be the first openly gay governor in U.S. history.

But the real news might be from swing states Trump won and where Democratic candidates seem to have an edge. For example, Trump won Iowa by nearly double digits, but a recent poll shows Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell, a first-time candidate, with a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Kim Reynolds, the first woman to hold the post in state history.

Now, in Wisconsin, Tea Party Governor Scott Walker is running for his third term behind Democrat Tony Evers. Walker offering up ads saying he's defend Obamacare's popular pre-existing conditions. Now, that's despite his past opposition and his own attorney general suing to abandon the ACA entirely. In Ohio, always an electoral bellwether, Obama's consumer protection

chief, Richard Cordray, is in a tight race against state Republican attorney general and former senator Mike DeWine, who first ran for office back in 1976.

And Michigan, another key swing state Trump narrowly one, former Democratic State Senator Gretchen Whitmer is leading Attorney General Bill Schuette.

But there are welcoming outliers to the polarized state of American politics. For example, the two most popular governors in the country, they are blue state Republicans running for re-election. Massachusetts, Charlie Baker and Maryland's Larry Hogan. Their centrist records have resonated in states despite Trump's deep unpopularity. In deep red Kansas, Democrat Laura Kelly may edge out far right Republican Kris Kobach. She has been endorsed by every living Republican governor of the state except Sam Brownback. Independent candidate Greg Orman, who ran a very competitive race for Senate in 2014, is an additional x-factor. And in South Dakota, where no Democrat has been elected governor in 40 years, a new poll shows the candidates locked in a dead heat.

Remember, states are laboratories of democracy. And in the Trump era, more Democrats are rediscovering federalism. These governors will preside over redistricting and governors have traditionally provided the next presidential bench. Add it all together and you've got high states and high drama on election night and that's your "Reality Check."

[08:35:13] BERMAN: Who ever said there were no governors races? Way wrong it turns out. Like wicked wrong.

AVLON: Wicked wrong, exactly.

CAMEROTA: I never heard anybody to say that, to begin with. I think that's a false premise.

BERMAN: Well, that's why we need a "Reality Check." There are a lot of governor's races.

AB: But that was a high drama "Reality Check," John.

AVLON: I'm telling you, all the -- all the attention's really on the House and the Senate. Understandable. But the governors are those who govern closest to the people.

CAMEROTA: Well done. Thank you.

All right, so a source close to the White House tells CNN that the president's advisers are telling him to go to the war with the media. Are we predicting this is just starting? Is that a winning strategy for the midterms? We get "The Bottom Line," next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: A source close to the White House tells CNN that top advisers of the president are urging him to play up to the base and ramp up his war with the media. I'm sure the president needed to be told that. It would never have done it otherwise.

[08:40:01] CAMEROTA: What will that look like?

BERMAN: Yes, I have no idea.

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: What does he pay for that advice?

BERMAN: Let's get "The Bottom Line" with CNN political director David Chalian.

David, look, it is crystal clear the two messages that the president wants to hit more than any other. And I actually think it was clear before the events last week with the bombs sent around and the attack at the synagogue. He wants to attack the media and he wants to play up immigration as a crisis. And that's it. And if those are the only two things he were to talk about before next Tuesday, he'd be happy.

CHALIAN: He would be. And, you know, a week ago, and two weeks ago, Republican operatives working on these midterm campaigns, John, thought the president was once again being quite successful in shaping the political landscape with talk of the Kavanaugh after effect and the caravan and immigration and, of course, relishing all fights with the media, really successful at drumming up the base and keeping a news environment focused on things that would enthuse his base.

Nearly every Republican strategist I've spoken to since the news has been completely diverted elsewhere in the last week think that is not good for them. And you know what, just look at the president's actions to understand. If he was happy with where the political environment was a week before this election, he wouldn't so aggressively be trying to change the topic with birthright citizenship or more talk, you know, sending the military down for the caravan that is not coming to the southern border of the United States any time soon. He wouldn't be doing that if he was pleased with the current political environment.

CAMEROTA: Maybe he just believes that fear works better as a motivation.

CHALIAN: Well, no doubt. And I think, a, it does through electoral history in America. You can see that fear is a motivating factor. But also Donald Trump has had success with that. And so it doesn't surprise me to see him try and attempt to do that again a week out. He's now just having to do it, Alisyn, I think, in a -- in a news environment that doesn't allow it to happen so easily.

BERMAN: Yes, and he's not shying away from it. I think the thing that's clear here is he's not shying away. He's not deciding to not use the word invader, for instance, to talk about these asylum seekers, more than 1,000 miles away. He still calls the media the enemy of the people, even though the bombs were sent last week, he's not shying away from it. That's just abundantly clear.

Let's talk geography, David, because I think it's interesting also. The president's going to be a very active campaigner. More so, in my memory, than his predecessors, Barack Obama or George W. Bush, who were not able to campaign as actively, even in friendly areas it seems, as President Trump is. This is a pretty big map that he's visiting.

CHALIAN: It is a big map, but it's also significant here. We're talking -- I know I've said this before on this show -- we're talking two different universes between the battle for control of the Senate and the battle for control of the House. This map and Donald -- you are right, Donald Trump has told voters, pretend I'm on the ballot. He's campaigning with gusto in these final days, but he's going to Trump country. He's going to a lot of deep red states, Montana, Missouri, Tennessee, Indiana, West Virginia. That is all to turn out the base and try and hold the Senate, perhaps pad their majority in the Senate in some way.

A couple of states there, Florida, Ohio, may be about those governor's races looking ahead to monster presidential battleground states for his re-election in 2020.

But what it is not about, that travel schedule, it's not about the battle for control of the House of Representatives. The battleground districts, a lot of suburban districts made up with a huge swath of independent voters, college educated women, that is not where Donald Trump is campaigning because he's not welcome there because he wouldn't necessarily help Republican chances trying to fortify against the Democratic potential wave.

CAMEROTA: David, what do you think we should expect today when the president goes to Pittsburgh and to Squirrel Hill, just as the first three congregants of the synagogue who were brutally gunned down there are buried?

CHALIAN: It's a good question, Alisyn.

I, you know, there have been a few moments, but they're few in this presidency, where you really see Donald Trump embrace that consoler in chief kind of role. For the most part, that's not a natural part of the job for him. You know, and as John was just saying, he's in this mode -- campaign mode right now and doubling down on the fights that to go and try and be consoler in chief, where it's not his natural tendency, I think could, you know, create for some discording notes, especially if the community there is not welcoming him in open arms on the ground today.

BERMAN: It will be interesting. I assume on the ground he will say the appropriate and sensitive things. It's just everything around that, on Twitter this morning, Twitter tonight, to reporters before, to reporters after, whatever interviews he does --

CHALIAN: Exactly.

BERMAN: That might be a starkly different tone.

David Chalian, thank you. Thanks for being with us this morning.

CAMEROTA: Good to talk to you.

All right, the comedians are taking President Trump to task over his response to the hate attacks. Here somehow are late night laughs.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STEPHEN COLBERT, HOST, "THE LATE SHOW WITH STEPHEN COLBERT": Immediately after the shooting Trump told reporters how the attack in Pittsburgh could have been prevented. Spoiler alert, it's more guns.

[08:45:08] DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is a case where if they had an armed guard inside, they might have been able to stop him immediately.

COLBERT: Yes, it's so simple. In fact, why didn't the Jewish people have an armed guard for the last 5,000 years? Moses could have saved a lot of time walking through the desert if pharaoh knew he was packing, you know what I mean?

TRUMP: Oh, the media has been extremely unfair to me and to the Republican Party.

JIMMY KIMMEL, HOST, "JIMMY KIMMEL LIVE": Yes, if you guys stop saying mean things about me, I'll stop inciting angry lunatics to kill you. Deal?

Trump also lashed out via Twitter blaming the media for the recent violence. It's like when a bully punches you with your own fist and says, stop hitting yourself. He wrote the fake news media is the true enemy of the people. Literally days after the media got sent pipe bombs he calls the media the enemy of the people. He can't help himself. He has to double down and all. It's no wonder he bankrupted all those casinos. He doesn't know how to gamble.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: I forgot that practice where the bully would hit you with your own fist. I never liked that.

BERMAN: You're actually saying, no, but you're like, oh, no, I know this feels familiar because that happened to me.

CAMEROTA: I know that feels, of course.

BERMAN: All right, coming up, what's happening in the United States, this rise of anti-Semitism, this discussion about nationalism, it really isn't just happening here. There are major developments all around the world. Fareed Zakaria will join us tying it all together. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:50:35] BERMAN: We have focused so much on the huge events here in the United States this week, the polls towards nationalism over and otherwise (ph). But there was a huge moment in South America this weekend. An earthshaking political development. And I'm not talking any hyperbole here. The election of Jair Bolsonaro as president has major ramifications in South America and all around the world.

Joining me now is Fareed Zakaria, host of "Fareed Zakaria GPS."

This is not just any leader who was elected. And Brazil's not just any country.

FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN HOST, "FAREED ZAKARIA GPS": Right. So this is the largest country in Latin America, the largest country -- the -- you know, one of the largest country's in the world. And this guy is an outsider, which is often what the appeal is, who speaks frankly and admiringly about Brazil's long and very dark past of military dictatorship, praises generals all the time, chose as his running mate a general who also praises the military, dictatorship, and talks about how the world needs more military coops every now and then to bring order to the society. Very conservative socially.

He represents, in a way, a return to a kind of promise that Latin America used to have, which was, we will give you military dictatorship plus free market economics. Most of the time it never worked out because the military dictatorships ended up being very corrupt.

But he's very much part of this rise of populism around the world. Look, he promises to pull out of the Paris Peace -- the Paris Climate Accords. He praises generals all the time. You know, he talks about how the press is, you know, is the enemy. Sound familiar?

BERMAN: It is. And there are people who will say he's Brazil's Donald Trump there. And there are similarities, but there are other areas where it goes even way beyond that.

ZAKARIA: Yes, particularly the embrace of actual military dictatorship. You know, remember, these are dictatorships in Brazil, as in elsewhere, that had thousands and thousands of political prisoners, lots of kidnappings, assassinations. So a very dark past, without much to show for it economically. But what it tells you is that there is this deep frustration with the governing class everywhere.

BERMAN: Everywhere.

ZAKARIA: If you look around the world, John, if you ask yourself, what's the simplest rules to figure out who's winning, it's the outsider. So, in both scenario, the outsider. Imran Khan in Pakistan was the outsider. Macron in France was the outsider. Trudeau in Canada was the outsider. In some cases they're progressive. In some cases they're not. But the one thing people are fed up with is the political class. And, of course, the most perfect illustration of that is Angela Merkel in Germany. She represented the great German consensus (ph) centrist, you know, very much part of that political class. And she is now wildly unpopular.

BERMAN: And she announced that she will be leaving by 2021, if she lasts that long. And the reason that may be significant is, you're not just talking about Germany, which, of course, is historically and presently so crucial to the world, but also the entire European Union. I mean the European Union is sticking together, largely because of Germany and Angela Merkel.

Is this a tipping point, Fareed, for the idea of the international order?

ZAKARIA: So I think there's no question that the stakes are as high as you described. I think the important thing to remember about Merkel is, she's been there a long time. I think -- I haven't double checked this, but I think by 2021 she will have been the longest serving chancellor maybe tying Otto von Bismarck in a 19th century. Certainly the longest serving chancellor in a hundred years.

So this is -- this is somebody who's been there a long time. My own gut is that the German system will pass the test, which is to say that whoever replaces her will be as committed to Europe, as committed to, you know, kind of the liberal world order, as committed to maintaining a European unity. If you look at the people who criticize -- her criticisms come from people who are in many cases more pro-European than she is. The one area where they have criticized here was the taking in the million refugees.

And, look, that is what's spurred a certain amount of this right wing populism in Germany. And if there is a course correction, so be it.

BERMAN: I'm a very big believer in the political pendulum. You know, nationally and internationally. It wrings back and forth. And the question is, where are we in the swing?

ZAKARIA: Yes.

[08:55:01] BERMAN: Is there more? Are we going to swing toward more nationalism, authoritarianism?

ZAKARIA: Right.

BERMAN: Or has it reached its peak? And when will we know?

ZAKARIA: In Germany, you know -- it's a very good question. In Germany, remember, the AFD, the right wing populist party, is so far only polled in the 10 percent to 15 percent at most. So it's not that much of a danger yet. So there's a possibility that there will be more.

I doubt it because I think what's happening is within her own party people are responding to those concerns about immigration. So the party itself has moved a little right. The center right party called the Perisnian (ph) Democrats. So they've already moved a little bit right. They're accommodating that impulse. This is the way politics works. You know, when you see one of these trends, you take it into account.

The crucial question would be, can somebody from the mainstream be viewed as an outsider? It's the same question the Democrats will face in the midterm, can you be seen as an outsider when you're, in fact, an insider.

BERMAN: That's the point I was making. We may learn something about what's happening around the world next Tuesday.

Fareed Zakaria, great to have you here with us. A really important discussion to have.

CAMEROTA: All right, John, as you know, President Trump will head to Pittsburgh today. Some local officials feel conflicted about that. More on CNN "NEWSROOM" next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:00:002] POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: All right, top of the hour. Good morning, everyone. I'm Poppy Harlow.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Jim Sciutto.