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CNN Poll: Dems Have Big Lead Over GOP in Generic Congressional Ballot. Aired 6-6:30a ET

Aired November 05, 2018 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Two months ago I was hearing about this horrendous blue wave. You better get out and vote.

[05:59:05] BETO O'ROURKE (D), TEXAS SENATORIAL CANDIDATE: This election is all about getting people together, matching the division with strength and courage and confidence.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We have a narrow path to a Senate Democratic majority. Everything comes down to turnout.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Democrats, what are they running on? Stop him? Resist? Obstruct?

BARACK OBAMA (D), FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: America is at a crossroads. The character of our country is on the ballot.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Alisyn Camerota and John Berman.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Welcome to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. This is NEW DAY. It's Monday, November 5, 6 a.m. here in Washington today.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Very exciting to be here with everybody. Things are already off to a raucous start.

BERMAN: We've got a big table here.

The polls open in about 24 hours in this huge high-stakes midterm election, and breaking news: the final CNN poll of where the race stands. Here it is. Democrats hold a sizeable double-digit lead over Republicans: 55 to 42 percent. That's a 13-point edge for Democrats on which party that voters say they will select tomorrow. That is a bigger margin than when Democrats took over in 2010, though smaller than the last time Democrats flipped the House in 2006.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: And President Trump's approve rating is down two points from last month to 39 percent. This is the worst pre- midterm approval rating for any president since Eisenhower. Democrats could benefit from a massive gender gap. Women favor Democrats 62 percent to 35 percent. Men are about evenly divided: 49 percent back the Republican; 48 percent back the Democrat in their district.

BERMAN: On the issues, health care is the big one with Democrats: 71 percent of Democrats consider it to be extremely important. Compare with 37 percent among Republicans.

For Republicans, 64 percent say immigration is extremely important. Just 44 percent of Democrats see it that way. Sixty percent of Republicans call the economy extremely important. That is what some Republicans would like to see the president focused on. Politico even reports that Paul Ryan, the House speaker, called the president, imploring him to focus on the economy and not immigration and divisive rhetoric. One senior Republican even told Politico Trump is hijacking the election, but the president, he sees it differently.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: They all say, "Speak about the economy, speak about the economy. " Well, we have the greatest economy in the history of our country, but sometimes it's not as exciting to talk about the economy, right?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: All right. Joining us now we have our CNN political analysts David Gregory; Jackie Kucinich, Washington bureau chief for "The Daily Beast"; Scott Jennings, a former special assistant to President George W. Bush; and Bakari Sellers, a former South Carolina House member. We're going to need a bigger table, OK, before this is all over.

It's so great to be with all of you. It's really exciting here in Washington.

So David Gregory, when you hear the president say there, it's just not as exciting --

DAVID GREGORY, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes.

CAMEROTA: -- to talk about the economy as it is to talk about all of his sort of inflammatory rhetoric about invaders, I mean, that is really telling.

GREGORY: Yes. I mean, it is -- it's a reminder, not that we needed one, that in his mind, he's less the president of the United States and more the producer of the politics of this country. I mean, he really does think -- and he thinks out loud: "Well, you know, my producers say I should talk about the economy, but what's really exciting are these other issues that I focused on."

But you know, this is -- this is such a serious election, because the country is so divided. There's so much money that's been poured into this midterm race, unlike anything we've ever seen before. And I was thinking about it, this is far more about who we are, what

we're afraid of, than what we believe or what we think that government ought to do. It is a referendum on the president. It is a reflection of how people feel about his tone, about his leadership and about what scares people in the country on either side. There's a lot of energy either way.

And we're playing on two different battlegrounds. Right? So if you're a Democrat, you're -- those divisions that were really cemented, they were there already but that Trump really cemented in 2016 are playing out here. Where his strength are, in rural America, as opposed to Democrats, who are playing in suburbs, closer to cities where they have advantages. All of that is on the table.

BERMAN: Dan Ball is our friend at "The Washington Post," wrote yesterday this is an election about who we are. I think you're right.

Jackie, I want you to look over to that side of the table. You have Democrat Bakari Sellers over there, Republican Scott Jennings. You know, you look at our poll, a 13-point edge for Democrats. Which one of those guys would you rather be this morning?

BAKARI SELLERS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Bakari Sellers.

JACKIE KUCINICH, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: So I think this poll, obviously, is better for Democrats looking at it; but -- but I think it does depend on where you live. You mentioned the immigration issue. You can tell where it's working. Someone like a Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee is talking about immigration nonstop. In other places of the country, you won't hear that. You don't hear even Rick Scott talking about it as much as you do Marsha Blackburn.

In the House, David Brat, he's someone who's been a -- he's in Richmond, Virginia, and somebody who's been an immigration hardliner, he's talking about it more. So I really -- but in some of those suburban districts, you're not going to hear anybody talk about immigration. They're going to be talking about the economy. So I really do think --

GREGORY: And health care.

KUCINICH: And health care. Of course. Your Democrat, and some Republicans, saying that they're going to protect preexisting conditions, which as we know, the bill that passed the House did not include. It really is going to come down to where you're living, who you're talking to, particularly those suburban women with college degrees.

CAMEROTA: Bakari, you're feeling good about being Bakari Sellers this morning.

SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: When does he ever not feel good?

CAMEROTA: But the problem, I think, for Democrats is that in the generic ballot they win by a 13-point lead; but when you put an actual human being behind that "D," a real person, it actually goes down.

SELLERS: Yes, that's why polls -- and I think we all learned, because I think that the six of here probably would have said, based on polls and other data we knew in snapshots of time, two years ago today, that Hillary Clinton would have been the president of the United States. And so we missed that, and we missed the surge. And I think that there is a lot of surge that we probably are missing in these polls. Many of that looks 18- to 29-year-olds, who are voting in an unprecedented rates.

But what I will say and what I will push back on, as much as people want to take this a "two Americas" type race, be cautious on that, because on Tuesday night, I think people will be surprised when Democrats win the governor's mansion in Ohio; when they win the governor's mansion in Wisconsin; when they win the governor's mansion in Minnesota.

And so when you start to look at where Democrats will actually win these races, this two Americas and Democrats only playing on the coast, you may -- that theory may be disrupted just slightly, because Democrats are running extremely strong in Wisconsin in beating Scott Walker. Not just the Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillums, but Democrats have actually had a good set of candidates this go around. And these candidates are unique because they're not national Democrats. To your point, when you put a "D" behind them, these candidates fit their particular states. They fit their districts that they're running in.

BERMAN: I think Scott is jumping the gun. He's surprised on Monday morning not Tuesday night about what you just said. Surprised and bemused somehow.

JENNINGS: Well, what Bakari -- let me just translate what Bakari just said from my point of view. The Democrats who are doing well in these middle American states aren't able to run on the national Democratic platform. Therefore, they're able to do better.

Look what Mike Braun is doing in Indiana. Look what Claire McCaskill is doing in Missouri. Not Mike Braun, Joe Donnelly. If those Democrats win, it's because they ran away from their party.

To your point, when you put an actual "D" behind it --

CAMEROTA: Behind the name. Behind it.

JENNINGS: Behind the name -- you know, they have to separate themselves. So I -- I think that our poll this morning is a bit of an outlier from the other national polls.

I think when you drill down into the battleground districts, it gets much tighter, and I would just say about the economy for Republicans, it is the signature accomplishment of this administration, it is the signature accomplishment of this Congress --

CAMEROTA: Why aren't they talking more about it?

JENNINGS: And honestly -- I mean, look, I understand for intensity's sake, immigration does matter to some Republicans. But the economy is tied to health care. It's tied to how you feel about the future of the country. It's tied to so much of the aspirational messaging that you would want to be running on to close a campaign.

If I were Republican, I'd have the economy on the air -- I mean, if you --

BERMAN: He just said it was just boring, and he was the president.

JENNINGS: I know, but if you picked up a newspaper this weekend, there were, like, several paragraphs in the paper that looked like they could have been written by the Republican National Committee.

GREGORY: What's going to get -- what's going to get voters out -- and I think Bakari's point is well taken. But I actually don't think the "two Americas" idea is about Democrats just playing well on the coast.

I think look where the president has gone and where hasn't he gone. So if you have these suburban districts that are so close -- where the president is so unpopular, he's basically ceding all of that ground. And where he's going are western states, rural areas, or states, if you look at the Senate map, I mean, in Missouri, where Claire McCaskill is having to talk about immigration, because of the politics of Missouri. That's where he's trying to shore up support to try to keep the Senate in Republican hands, which he will no doubt define as victory.

CAMEROTA: Jackie, what's the thinking about President Trump being out in these places campaigning and former President Obama being out in these places, because when you look at the, you know, video of the rallies, people seem very energized, but this is a self-selected group. If you're going to turn out to a rally, you probably are going to vote, or at least you have some -- some investment in all of this.

KUCINICH: They are there to preach to the choir. This isn't about changing minds at this stage of the game. This is about getting out to the people who will come to a rally and may grab one of their friends and say, you know, "We're going to go vote today."

It's about boosting the turnout of those who really have been involved with this election from go and are, you know, ready for a change or stay on with whoever is in office.

BERMAN: One of the things that I thought was so instructive about that political article, where Paul Ryan called the president, was there was this blind quote -- yes, anonymous source but from a senior Republican who said that, you know, Trump has hijacked the election, which I think the president would admit, "Yes, I have." Listen to what he says on the stump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: A vote for Masha is really a vote for me.

A vote for Morrissey is a vote for me.

And a vote for Steve is a vote for me.

A vote for David is a vote for me.

And a vote for Cindy is a vote for me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: And I do understand this works in some places, but Republicans who I have talked to, who are involved particularly with House races, wish this were not the case, wish that the president were not driving, Scott, the narrative as much as he is.

JENNINGS: Well, you know, like in Tennessee, his approval rating is in the high 50s, so "a vote for her is a vote for me," that's great.

But in the suburban House districts, particularly the ones where Hillary carried in 2016, this is not -- this is not great. It's not unusual for, by the way, for a White House political office to send a president to the places that are better than others, we did that for President Bush in '06, Obama did that.

I mean, you typically try to maximize their time on the stump. But look, we knew this was going to be a national election just because of the nature of the Trump presidency. So I'm glad they actually put him into places to say those things where it would help the most.

But I just -- this movement against a desire to talk about the economy and suburban -- maybe they've just decided the House is lost and we've got to go all in on the Senate.

But I do think Republicans have a great story to tell, and it will be unfortunate if we end this election without having told it.

KUCINICH: But can we just note something? If you look at the rallies except for, I think, like one there, all of the signs were Trump signs. Those aren't rallies for -- I couldn't tell you if there were not an identifier where those rallies were, like, if the sun was up or down, because they are, they're Trump rallies. They are about him, and that is remarkable. You don't see that with other -- with other presidents --

CAMEROTA: That's effective, right? If they just go into the ballot box and hit "R," then he's -- he's -- it works.

SELLERS: That's the -- that's the ground that Donald Trump is ceding. Donald Trump is saying, and this is to David's point slightly, that this is -- he's the president of the Republican Party. And even more specifically, he's the president of the Republican base.

And so what that's going to do on election day, is you're going to have races that Republicans are going to lose which are going to shock the conscience.

For example, Lucy McBath, right? Jon Ossoff in a special election had all the money -- it was manna on heaven. He had all the money in the world, and he lost to Karen Handel. Lucy McBath is going into the suburb of Atlanta, and she is up two

points now over -- over Karen Handel.

You look at Underwood in the outskirts of Chicago. I mean, you have these races all around the country. And again, you know, you can say we're running away from the national Democratic brand, or whatever it's called. I call it being a good candidate. You call it running, however, you win a race we can call it -- we can describe it as such. But you're going to have a new Democratic governor in Iowa.

Like, I mean, so let's not confuse this. I mean, Democrats are running strong from the shores of New York all the way to L.A. and everywhere in between. So this is more than just -- this is more than just a Trump phenomenon, but people are rejecting the direction the country is going in.

GREGORY: Well, this is very -- you know, there are some ties to '06 where there are big issues on the table like Hurricane Katrina, like Iraq, like general direction of the country, I think, as President Obama said, this is an election that's about the character of the country but turbocharged in the sense of, really, it is about the leadership of Trump and the direction of Trump. And I think that national overhang has really infused these races.

BERMAN: All right, guys. Stick around. We have a lot more to talk about. And ahead on NEW DAY, we're going to speak to several candidates on the ballot tomorrow. Republican Senate nominee Jim Renacci of Ohio. The Democratic nominee for governor of Georgia, Stacey Abrams will be in here. Republican House candidate Dan Crenshaw of Texas, he's been in the news a little bit over the last two days.

CAMEROTA: We look forward to talking to them. And a quick programming note. NEW DAY is on early tomorrow, David Gregory. And Wednesday, David Gregory, starting at 5 a.m. Eastern, please show up. Set your alarm.

GREGORY: Five a.m. Eastern?

CAMEROTA: David is also shocked that NEW DAY is on five days a week.

GREGORY: I'm still getting over that. You mean every day during the week.

CAMEROTA: Yes, CNN special election night in America. Coverage begins at 5 p.m. tomorrow.

BERMAN: All right. Two key races to watch. The governor's contest in Florida, in Georgia. Why are they so important? Why are they so close? We'll discuss next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:16:58] BERMAN: All right. The office of Georgia's Republican secretary of state, Brian Kemp, who happens to be the Republican nominee for governor, is investigating the state Democratic Party, claiming it attempted to hack the voter registration system, which Democrats categorically deny.

E-mails obtained by CNN from Georgia's Democratic Party show a voter reached out to one of the party's volunteers Saturday morning, flagging potential vulnerabilities in Georgia's online registration system that would allow one to access other voters' data. Basically saying, "Look, there's a problem here."

CAMEROTA: OK. The volunteer then forwarded that e-mail to the voter protection director for Georgia's Democratic Party, the right thing to do.

But Kemp's office only released the forwarded e-mail, claiming that the Democrats were somehow involved at an attempted hack.

This move comes right before Kemp faces Democrat Stacey Abrams in a very tight race for Georgia governor.

Back with us now, we have Jackie Kucinich, David Gregory, Scott Jennings, and Bakari Sellers.

Scott, how is this not a conflict of interest? How can the fox investigate the henhouse? Brian Kemp is running against Stacey Abrams. He's now launching an investigation without any evidence of a hack.

JENNINGS: Yes, honestly, I don't know. I mean, I have -- I have watched this race very closely, and I have -- you know, I don't think Kemp has done anything wrong that would warrant him stepping down. I've said that on here before.

But it strikes me, within the last few days of an election like this, to go out and release something that does call into question. You know, what in the world, you know, is this guy thinking?

Republicans are extremely concerned about this campaign. In some ways, Georgia is like the new Ohio. I think that's what it's going to be in 2020, part of the Sun Belt where the Democrats are doing better. Republicans can't count on it as much anymore. I think we're probably headed for a runoff election here, which means we'll be counting votes again.

CAMEROTA: You think it will be that tight?

JENNINGS: I do. And you've got to get the 50 percent. So I just -- if you have to fight it out on these grounds and not on the issue grounds, it seems a little desperate at the end. We'll see what happens. I don't know. Bakari's been down there campaigning. But I -- I would rather the Republican candidates be focused on the issues of running a state.

BERMAN: I've got to say, and I get the sense with Democrats nationally that they think this will backfire on Kemp. They look at this and think this was a big mistake.

JENNINGS: It's so late.

SELLERS: Lester Maddox, I mean -- I'm sorry. Brian Kemp, as we -- you guys missed it.

BERMAN: You're calling him a racist?

SELLERS: Yes -- no, I'm calling him a voter suppression person who traffics in racism. That's what we're calling him. And I think that Brian Kemp has done himself a disservice. He's done the state of Georgia a disservice. He's run an awful campaign, and he's trafficked in what the president has, but is what -- the worst of this country.

On the flip side, you have someone who is out there touting progressive values. I mean, Stacey Abrams is -- is talking about -- she's talking about health care. She's talking about her experience. She's talking about making education affordable. This is just another ploy.

I mean, this is the same -- let's not forget who this is. He actually sued or said that the Department of Homeland Security under Barack Obama was hacking the Georgia voter rolls when, in fact, it was just an employee searching their website. So let's not act is if this is something brand-new. This is who Brian Kemp is.

GREGORY: And --

[06:20:08] SELLERS: No, I'm sorry. I just think that this race, to echo his point, what we look at analytically and what people look at analytically from afar, is they think that Georgia is the city of Atlanta. And that's not the case.

Georgia is a very, very diverse, rural, mixed with that urban Atlanta center.

BERMAN: Big suburban.

SELLERS: Big, big, suburban area, and -- and Stacey is doing something that Democrats haven't done a lot, which is run in all of those counties.

And you look at -- and then the best example before -- before David chimes in -- I'm sorry for being longwinded -- but the best example is Jason Carter was a great candidate. Jason Carter got smacked by ten points. And Stacey Abrams is running neck and neck, because she's running a campaign from -- from county to county on these progressive issues.

GREGORY: And all of those reasons underscore, in a statewide race for governor why Georgia is so important this time, because it's so important in 2020, and because you have such a strong national candidate -- national candidate in Stacey Abrams, getting this kind of national attention, against a guy who really is channeling Trump.

So what do you think, you know, Democrats and Republicans take from that, and why is the president rattled about that?

KUCINICH: But it's so interesting, because yes, he's channeling Trump, because much like Ron DeSantis in Florida --

GREGORY: Right.

KUCINICH: -- he was picked over the establishment candidate by Trump. So he has every incentive to hug him tight. And as a result, Trump is very invested in those particular two races, because he interfered in the primary process by, you know, choosing one of those candidates.

BERMAN: No, I think it puts identity politics -- a lot of times we have identity politics in these races around the country. In Florida and Georgia, it's right there. There's no hiding behind these issues because of the candidates that both parties have selected.

CAMEROTA: Something interesting is happening in Indiana, where the president, you know, went and had a rally and gave a speech. And I just want to play a portion of what he said in Indianapolis, because I find it interesting. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP : It's no surprise that Joe Donnelly is holding a rally this weekend with Barack H. Obama. Barack Obama.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: Look, that's what I was talking about.

CAMEROTA: I know that.

BERMAN: There's no hiding behind the identity politics there.

CAMEROTA: But I'm so confused, Scott. Why doesn't he just say "Hussein"? That's a -- saying the president's middle name is a line for President Trump? We've finally reached the Rubicon, that he won't say the president's middle name? Why not?

JENNINGS: I mean, I've heard him say it before. He's not shied away from doing it before. I think he did it in 2016 fairly often.

What I find interesting about the Indiana Senate race, is you've got both Obama and Trump there all in together in a state that Obama won and also Trump won, and I mean --

(CROSSTALK)

JENNINGS: I looked -- I looked at the speeches of both of these guys, and they are -- they are all in and all out and all out at each other. So this is in many ways a proxy war.

KUCINICH: And that in itself would be notable. I can't remember the last time a -- the immediate predecessor of a current president was out on the campaign trail, going at each other.

BERMAN: Because it hasn't happened.

KUCINICH: That doesn't -- doesn't happen.

BERMAN: Yes. JENNINGS: And what's amazing is --

KUCINICH: That dog whistle is so loud, it's hard to hear.

JENNINGS: And what's amazing is Obama is campaigning for a Democrat senator who is running -- most of his ads are all about how much he supports Trump. I mean, it is -- if you're an Indiana voter, you must -- your head must be spinning.

SELLERS: Before we start -- because "The New York Times" had this -- this piece that flabbergasted most of America, that talking about the fact that -- that Barack Obama was out here, just disrupting norms of the presidency and former presidency. This is an abnormal time.

KUCINICH: Right.

SELLERS: And so what Barack Obama is doing is he's sticking his toe in the water and that may be contrary to what some may see; and it may be offensive to some norms.

Well, let's not forget the president of the United States has not seen a norm that he has held tight to. Right? And so this is a very different time.

Speaking to those dog whistles, the president's name is Barack Hussein Obama, right? And I think that what -- and what Donald Trump is doing, to tie this all the way back into the CNN poll, is you have, the split in this country, you have 60 percent of college-educated whites who support the Democratic Party. And you're seeing -- you're starting to see these different bases play to their groups and their audiences and where these races are going to be won, which is in the suburbs or around the edges in rural America, they're talking to the voters who will come out for them.

GREGORY: It is interesting, looking at President Obama's role. You know, he can get these voters out, particularly younger voters who could play such a huge role. We've seen that.

But we also saw that he didn't have great coattails, right, that he couldn't transfer what he had, as kind of a singular sensation, to -- to Hillary Clinton. That's always been the rap on him. He's got an opportunity to do it here. I don't know how we'll measure exactly what that Obama impact is. But it's clearly these candidates who are looking to tap into this enthusiasm are happy to have him.

BERMAN: But I think that's what makes this race so important for President Trump, too. This will -- this will put the parameters on Trumpism. How wide is it? And does he have coattails? I don't think we'll know. We'll know -- we'll know Wednesday morning.

[06:25:09] GREGORY: One thing I would say there. To Scott's other point, is you know, if Republicans united as a party beyond the Trump wings of the party on Kavanaugh and on the economy, and those are the areas that they're not really talking about in the final stretch.

SELLER: But I mean, just imagine this. So Donald Trump is going to claim victory for whatever he claims victory for. I mean, they can lose the House, the Senate and everything else. I don't think they'll lose the Senate, but let's just say they lose everything.

But on Wednesday, Donald Trump is going to double down on Trumpism. So you know, not pronouncing the "H," these dog whistles that are bullhorns, we're going to hear that, for the next two years, because there's a presidential race that starts Wednesday morning.

So for everything that we're going through, everything, the build up to get to Tuesday, which is an amazing day in this country. It's election day. I hope everybody goes out and votes. Whoever -- whoever you're voting for, exercise your franchise.

The presidential race starts on Wednesday morning. And what -- however we are offended by Donald Trump's -- just his language, rhetoric and all of those things, I'm going to tell you that it's going to be that much more times two beginning Wednesday morning.

And Republicans are going to have to deal with it, just as Democrats are going to have to make sure that we're not trying to out-Trump Trump and have Elizabeth Warren mistakes.

JENNINGS: Well, but you're going to have it. In the Democratic primary, the demand by base liberal activists for, you know, who can be most stridently opposed to Donald Trump, is going to be an extreme amount of pressure. They're going to be trying to outdo each other in all these campaign events. Donors are going to demand it.

And by the way, if Democrats win the House, they'll be enormous pressure for investigations. A lot of folks want to impeach the president. There's a petition with six million signatures. Eighty percent of people in our September poll of Democrats said they wanted to impeach the president. How do you ignore this? And it would be an enormous overreach.

So the Democratic Party is going to have to --

SELLERS: -- trying to get people to watch TV all day.

JENNINGS: You guys are going to have to restrain it. There's going to be a lot of overreach.

CAMEROTA: I like the concept that this is the calm before the storm.

GREGORY: This is the calm.

CAMEROTA: Exactly.

SELLERS: This is calm.

CAMEROTA: Thank you.

BERMAN: Thank you for waking up with us this morning. Tomorrow, an hour earlier.

Coming up next, we're going to hear from next hour, I should say, we're going to hear from the Democratic nominee for Georgia governor, Stacey Abrams. She will be with us.

CAMEROTA: And "SNL" cast member Pete Davidson is facing backlash this morning for mocking a Republican congressional candidate and war hero. Should he apologize, or is this just comedy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PETE DAVIDSON, CAST MEMBER, NBC'S "SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE": He lost his eye in war or whatever.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)