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Voters to Render Verdict on the Trump Presidency; Soon: First Polls Open in Midterm Elections. Aired 5-5:30a ET

Aired November 06, 2018 - 05:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: You have to go out and vote, because in a sense, I am on the ticket.

SEN. MAZIE HIRONO (D), HAWAII: The Republicans are banking on a president who is stoking anti-immigrant fears.

MIKE PENCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We are securing our borders. We put the caravan on notice.

BARACK OBAMA, FORMER PRESIDENT: The character of the country is on the ballot. How we treat people is on the ballot.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This president's policies help the job creators and job seekers.

SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (D), MASSACHUSETTS: Republicans control the Senate. I have one thing to say: tick-tock. We're coming.

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Alisyn Camerota and John Berman.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: We want to welcome our viewers in the United States and around the world, to a special election day edition of "NEW DAY." It is Tuesday, November 6th, 5:00 in Washington.

[05:00:00] Here's what you need to know, the day is finally here, the day that we have talked about so much over the past year.

Voters across America will head to the polls to give their verdict on the direction of the country and Trump presidency and decide which party will control the House and Senate.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: We do not know what is going to happen. We really don't.

What we know is that more than 31 million Americans have already cast their votes early. Polls will open across the country throughout the next four hours and we will be your guides through the Democratic process this morning. Intensity is so high, there could be records set in some places for a midterm elections. CAMEROTA: So, what exactly is at stake today? Well, all 435 House

Seats are in play, along with 35 seats in the Senate. The big question, of course, will Democrats be able to flip the House or Senate or both? Or will Republicans keep control of both.

Throughout the morning, we will break down the races that could shift the balance of power.

BERMAN: Governor races are also huge, 36 of them. They could tell us more than anything about the direction of the country.

But perhaps more than anything, this is a race about the president. He knows that. All you have to do is listen to him on the stump. He says it all the time.

He kept a dizzying pace up until the end, much of the time painting a dark picture on immigration. And that was by design, his design. Sources tell CNN he hated an upbeat closing ad featuring positive messages about the economy. He inspired the pivot to immigration that included the ad which was racist and so false it was rejected by CNN and later banned by NBC and Fox, though after it had run on football.

So, let's bring in CNN political analyst David Gregory, CNN White House correspondent Abby Phillip, Hillary Clinton's former campaign manager and CNN political commentator, Robby Mook, and Matt Gorman, the communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

I want to tell all of you first of all, thank you for being here.

CAMEROTA: Extra early. I appreciate you being here.

BERMAN: And riding up on the elevator, Alisyn was happy to be here. She is so happy with the temperature in the studio.

CAMEROTA: I can say yippee.

DAVID GREGORY, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: There are few viewers in Hong Kong getting ready to come home or go to happy hour who want to know.

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: I would say that, just thrilled for Alisyn.

I want to start big and work small, David. So, again, we don't know what's going to happen today. I think what we do know is that this is the day that will set the parameters for the Trump presidency.

GREGORY: I think that's right. I think this is the first data point really that we're going to have on what reaction to his leadership we've actually had. It's not just tone, it's not just tenor, it's not just leadership style. It is what he has done and promises to do, the ways in which he has divided the country and united his supporters.

All of that is on the ballot. I think the idea of resistance the Democrats had after losing the race when I think so many Democrats thought Hillary Clinton would become president, was felt immediately. And the reaction to not just his style, but how he cast America both here and abroad was something that people reacted to very, very strongly.

So, there's incredible intensity out there right now. It is not just intensity on the left among those who see this as resistance. It's there on the right as well. You know, the contentious Kavanaugh hearing united a lot of the Republican Party, a strong economy. And then a very hard line finish on immigration, really whipping up support among the president's biggest supporters.

And that's the part we have a hard time identifying. We know how much intensity is out there. It could make a difference in the tight House race where is the Republicans are playing defense in the country. And that's really a big story.

CAMEROTA: I think that leads us to Robby Mook, because Robby, I guess --

GREGORY: All roads.

CAMEROTA: All roads. I get the sense you are feeling bullish. You're feeling optimistic. But is there a sense of trepidation you have been here before and though you knew which way something is going to go?

ROBBY MOOK, FORMER CAMPAIGN MANAGER, HILLARY FOR AMERICA: Yes, I mean, I think David hit the nail on the head. We know the Democratic base is energized. We're seeing really encouraging data in the early vote. But actually, a lot happened on Election Day in 2016.

We saw really high turnout, really high performance for the president and those rural areas. What I think about Florida and north Florida really turned out, really performed well for the president. So, there is a big question mark right now.

But I think what David made a good point about is we saw the president get so far out there to try to turn out his base. I would argue he crossed that line at least a few days ago, certainly with that TV ad where he was doing more to turn out the Democratic base with his rhetoric than he is doing to turn out his own base. I think he is probably going to regret this strategy at the end of the day.

BERMAN: Matt, is that true? Paul Ryan called the president over the weekend and said we want you to talk about the economy. Please?

[05:05:01] MATT GORMAN, NCRCC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: I don't know about the phone call, but I'll say, I think we've run ads on both. Last week, we released 15 ads, almost all of them talked about tax cuts and the economy. We have been running ads about immigration for months as well, and not just in states that are near the southern border.

We've run them in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, even districts Hillary Clinton won in Southern California. So, this has been an issue for us and a winning issue since June or so according to our polling. So, we can run on both and I think both will rile up our base, but depending on how we talk about vote, going to appeal to independents.

MOOK: Let me say this quickly. They tried this strategy in Virginia last year. It fell flat on its face. I mean, Democratic turnout was off the charts.

I think you're going to see the same thing, I think. You have all of the Republicans that are going to lose, dozens of them, they're going to point to one person, it's Donald Trump. It's going to feel really ugly for him tomorrow.

CAMEROTA: Abby, you have been stationed at the White House right next for these past many months, right new to the leaf blower.

ABBY PHILLIP, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: The left blower.

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: Let's turn one on in here?

GREGORY: That would have been great.

PHILLIP: Warm welcome.

CAMEROTA: And the president gave a really interesting interview to Sinclair yesterday in which he was asked if he has regrets and if he would do anything differently. Listen to what the president said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

INTERVIEWER: Is there anything as you look back at the first almost two years that you regret and you wish on you that you could just take back and redo?

TRUMP: Well, there would be certain things. I'm not sure I want to reveal all of them. But I would say tone. I would like to have a much softer tone. I feel to a certain extent I have no choice. But maybe I do. Maybe I could have been softer from a standpoint.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: What does that tell us, Abby?

PHILLIP: I'm not sure it really tells us anything, Alisyn, to be honest. I think the president is fully aware of how he is perceived, but he's made a decision that he wants to be perceived by his supporters as strong. That's what they want from him. He said as much.

But I did find it interesting, because he has been asked a similar question in the past. And his answer in the past was, well, I regret the fake news media is treating me really poorly. So, this is a little bit of different tone.

CAMEROTA: Evolved.

PHILLIP: But it could be situational. We are coming off a really difficult two weeks for this country. I think the synagogue shooting really did have an affect on him, Alisyn. I know you have spoken to the rabbi that he told the president that tenor and tone matters. He doesn't look at it in politics. He looks at it as strong versus weak.

He doesn't want to be perceived as weak. He said he is fighting back against unfair treatment. I don't think that's going to change anytime.

BERMAN: I think there are three possibilities. I was shocked to hear it. It made my hair hurt, because I'm like, I haven't heard this from him before.

CAMEROTA: Also, who controls the tone? If you don't like it, change it.

BERMAN: There are three choices. One --

PHILLIP: He could have at any point in the last two years.

BERMAN: Maybe it is just noise out loud. Maybe he didn't mean it. Number two, maybe it is backwards looking and it had an affect with the rabbi's conversation.

Maybe it's forward-looking, and maybe he is preparing for the possibility of divided government. That is how a traditional president would approach a divided government.

GREGORY: Well, and he's -- look, I don't think it means a lot either. Maybe the last thing you heard is you look at our poll and that he is down 2-to-1 among women, you know? And if he thinks about women, he thinks about suburban voters, voters who may be dismissed as RINOs in the political parlance, Republicans in name only, the kinds of Republicans who voted for Mitt Romney, or George W. Bush, but were not supporting this president.

But I don't think it means a lot. I think that he president gets a real beating here. He always has the potential to pivot where he sees a deal. But if the prospect for a fight comes up before then, he'll always take that, and that's what we've seen.

I think the thing for both sides tonight which interests me -- if you look at the playing field, you have 25 congressional districts held by Republicans that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. It gives you the insight of the defense Republicans really have to play, and that's before you get into more solid territory, where they're still on the defensive.

The question is, how much of the intensity was there? As you read, Robby, you said something. There was something that the Trump team didn't see in 2016. People who had been on the sidelines, who were not voting, who jumped back into the fray. And I think that's who the president was speaking to the last couple weeks to make sure they got back in and did not feel complacent about the economy.

But there does seem to be on the Democratic side, there seems to be an activist, a love, a reaction that is a little bit more similar to 2008 with all due respect, compared to 2016. Where there are folks who feel like we're angry, we're frustrated, we're worried and rallying behind if you think about Georgia, you think about Andrew Gillum in Florida, progressive candidates who really could be the future.

[05:10:01] There seems to be some of that energy out there as well.

PHILLIP: It does seem for Democrats, though, the lesson of the cycle would not necessarily that -- you know, the Trump anger is in the air, but look at the races. People are running on the economy. They are running on health care. Because as Robby knows in 2016, it was also about Trump. The entire campaign became about this really unconventional candidate.

That clearly wasn't enough. This time around, I think it seems Democrats are trying a more focused strategy district by district and trying to go as local as they can. If that works tonight, it could be a lesson for the next two years and next presidential cycle.

BERMAN: All right, guys. Stand by for a minute. When we come back, we're going to talk about the races and get a sense of what you all think the races to watch are and what the signs will be throughout the night.

CNN's election night in America begins at 5:00 p.m. Eastern and join us early tomorrow, NEW DAY begins again at 5:00 a.m.

Alisyn loved it so much, she insisted in doing it tomorrow.

CAMEROTA: Let's do it at 4:00?

BERMAN: Yes. You can't be really careful. I'll be really careful --

CAMEROTA: All right. President Trump warning again of voter fraud without any evidence. Is that a preview of what's to come?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:16:03] CAMEROTA: President Trump returning to a familiar and false claim from the 2016 election, warning again without evidence about the threat of voter fraud today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: All you have to do is go around and take a look at what's happened over the years and you'll see. There are a lot of people, a lot of people, in my opinion and based on proof, that try to get in illegally, and actually vote, illegally. So, we just want to let them know that there will be prosecutions at the highest level.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: It's so interesting to listen to his rhetorical style, based on my opinion and proof. He knows to sneak that proof in without any proof.

We are back with Abby Phillip, David Gregory, Robby Mook and Matt Gorman.

So, Matt, listen, this came out -- we all looked at this so much over the past two years because of what the president said in 2016 where he claimed that there was vast voter fraud. So, all sorts of investigators, all sorts of research looked at it.

And what they have found is that there's a lot of evidence of voter suppression. Not fraud. You can count voter fraud on one hand. I mean, the colleges which have studied it.

What is the president doing when he's saying that today?

GORMAN: Well, broadly from out perspective, what we have to do is as we have lawyers across the country. It is to make sure every legal vote is counted. So, I think what we want to do is we have, you know, clusters of folks where all the big House races, so southern California, Illinois, South Florida, and a bunch of the places.

We just to make sure if something happens or it's extremely close, which a lot of this could be, we can mobilize quickly and Tallahassee in 2000 where things changed on a dime. You got to be able to respond to events very quickly.

BERMAN: But he is excuse shopping. And that's what he's doing. He's excuse shooting.

He doesn't go well for him, he wants to be able to say, oh, there is fraud if we lost. It is a nervous tick for him going into elections. He did it before two years.

CAMEROTA: And after.

BERMAN: And set that the stage before. Matt, while we have you here, you spent 24 hours a day concerned about getting Republicans elected to the house. That is where the focus is here. As we get into tonight, what are the moments where you will know you are having a good night or bad night?

GORMAN: First things, 6:00 p.m., polls close in Kentucky, very highly touted race there between Andy Barr and Amy McGrath. We talked about it before. It is the play-in game for the NCAA tournament. We will know how we are doing very early.

I would also watch the state of Minnesota, very much a bellwether state. Two seats where Republicans were on defense on the suburbs. Two seats where Democrats are on defense in the rural area. Whoever comes out of Minnesota looking best will tell us the night.

Lastly, Orange County. You only need to have your vote postmarked by today. So, it will be a long process. They're changing that, California. We have great candidates out there.

The first Korean-American woman could be elected to Congress. There's a lot of talk about women in the age of Trump running on the Democratic site, we had a story to tell as well in the public --

BERMAN: But that's the last thing, not the first thing --

(CROSSTALK)

GREGORY: Not to question about some of the data. One of the things that I've read that, John, in the close races, you have the Republican candidates who are -- whose polling is running a points behind the president's national approval rating, which indicates if there's some sort of surge in Republicans. If you look at it compared to last month, do they have an opportunity to make that up and catch up to what is a pretty low national approval rating, but if they're still tracking behind him, there is room to grow on Election Day.

GORMAN: I think you're right. And what we've seen, especially in the last month, is the base has come home. Folks are getting 2/3 of the Republican base on our side are now getting 90 plus. And I think with the swing voters, the folks that might be a little skeptical of the way things are going right now, it's a two-step process.

Some of them might want to check on President Trump, but they are not sure where the Democratic Party is going. They wanted to be them. So, we're seeing a lot of dysfunction pop up in issues that folks care about. There's a poll recently, 43 percent of voters that were not voting Democrat are not voting because they know it will grind D.C. to a halt. So, they're really kind of processing that still.

CAMEROTA: Robby, what races are you looking at, that we should be focused on today?

[05:20:00] MOOK: Well, I know, I can't believe I'm saying this. Before you were on, Nathan Gonzales was on. He was pointing out New Jersey and Virginia.

They close earlier in the night. If we win one seat in Virginia, that's good. Two or three seats, that's awesome. Same thing, New Jersey, we could win up to four. That would be really good sign.

CAMEROTA: Democrat side?

MOOK: Yes. I mentioned Florida before. That was an important state in 2016. And it's a bellwether for how the president's base is performing.

I think it's particularly good this year, because remember, Rick Scott had a razor close race in 2014. So, we actually have a midterm we can compare apples to apples. And southern Florida has gotten bigger. It has become more Democratic.

And so, Scott needs to do a lot better in the Republican parts of north Florida to win. So, if he is matching 2014, bad sign for Republicans. If he's doing better than 2014, we're really a close race.

BERMAN: He needs to grab the slice of voters that Trump did in 2016 and expand his base.

MOOK: And expand, and then, look, you can argue central Pennsylvania and western Pennsylvania. We will see the signs of what happens in Missouri and other states.

GREGORY: You see minority and young people turning out in states like Georgia, right? In the governor's race, which we should remind people, there could be a run-off unless somebody hits 50 percent, which is not easy.

BERMAN: That might be the most likely outcome.

GREGORY: Right, the most likely. But, you know, for the fact that Stacey Abrams running -- black woman, running as a progressive in a red state is as close as she is, is really surprising.

And Florida as well. You know, another African-American candidate as a progressive who clearly is helping Bill Nelson here get across the finish line because he is turning out so many young people to vote.

BERMAN: Abby, what do we know about the president's plans for tonight and tomorrow? Do we anticipate if Democrats take control, there will be a news conference and say I took a shellacking which is what Barack Obama said in 2014?

PHILLIP: I think it's not clear. It's no clear whether he would do that.

One way or another, I think today, he is at home. He is at the White House. He's going to be watching. They're going to have people over. I thought that was interesting because they almost are creating a little bit of an election night watch party at the White House with family and friends.

But the president doesn't appear to be totally ready to reset yet. I think that we were discussing this earlier. Will Trump turn around if the Democrats win the house and blame Democrats for the dysfunction or whatever it is? The problem is he has been doing that for two years now. So, it's hard to see how that dynamic will change on Wednesday morning because he actually has been blaming Democrats, even though Republicans have controlled power in Washington.

This might make it easier. And I think that's a better position for him to be in as he pivots to 2020. He is already running. The 2020 election is going to start on Wednesday. He is not going to slow down from all indications. Campaigning, going back out and see supporters. Gaining energy from them and keeping them on board.

I don't know that we're going to have a hard pivot to governing starting after the election.

BERMAN: That's why I said this at the beginning. I think that by tonight or tomorrow morning, we will know the parameters of Trumpism. I think we will know if the closing message worked and suburban women voting.

PHILLIP: Yes, the Republican Party as a whole right now, this is the story of this election right. Is the Republican Party going to fully become the Trump party? The entire Republican Party right now is running on Trump. Will they become the Trump party? And if they do -- if Trump's strategy works, I think, honestly if it

works for holding on to the Senate and gaining a seat or two in Senate, that would be a huge boost for him and his political instincts. I think that will give him a lot of wind at his back going into 2020 with his party.

GREGORY: But we should remember that we think of midterm races as a referendum on the party in power, and in this case, really on the president and on Trumpism. There will be a pivot to 2020. I don't see the president saying if there is a Democratic majority in the House, we will see what they do. I don't think Democrats and majority in the House are going to be interested in that. They want to go full steam ahead and investigating and maybe impeaching the president and setting the stage for 2020 as well.

The difference is, 2020 is a choice. It is not a referendum. He will go against somebody. That changes the dynamic completely.

MOOK: Well, one thing we have not had before here, the Republicans were in control of everything. The incentive was hold the party line.

You're going to dozens retired members and dozens who lost their races. There is going to be so much pressure on the president to take a lot of the blame. We have not seen that before.

You're going to also have, you know, almost 200 Republican members running on the Hill who just lost power. There's going to be a lot of anger. He hasn't had to deal with that before. Or it will change a lot.

[05:25:01] BERMAN: Or credit, going its way, that's also -- which would be an absolute revolution.

MOOK: Just to level set -- absolutely. But just to level set one thing. The Democrats held the Senate in 2010, lost the House. President Obama called it a shellacking.

If they lost the House and keep the Senate, it's a shellacking.

CAMEROTA: Matt?

GORMAN: I think the name of the game right now, what we are watching balance in the electorate. We are seeing some of the Republican races who made a small investment. Both parties have had to go back into races they thought were dead and buried on both sides.

And some of them were really Democratic seats that Hillary Clinton won by 20 points. Democrats had to go back into that area. We had to go back in where we thought we were in a good place, too.

So, as you know, Robby, there is volatility, especially the last two weeks. For us, we're making sure there's no surprises.

BERMAN: It's so funny. We say we don't know what's going to happen. It is clear the strategists don't know what's going to happen going back to the races that they thought -- CAMEROTA: If your goal is no surprises, I don't know if that works.

Thanks so much, guys. Great conversations. Thanks.

BERMAN: So, voter turnout is expected to be high, but, and this is serious. I'll have the strategists in the break here, the weather could be a serious problem. There is going to be severe weather in some parts of the country. The major storm hitting on Election Day.

We'll talk about that next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)