Return to Transcripts main page

New Day

Polls Begin Opening for Midterm Election Voting; Analysts Examine Likely Outcomes of Midterm Election; Interview with Haley Barbour. Aired 8-8:30a.

Aired November 06, 2018 - 8:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:00] ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Alisyn Camerota on John Berman.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to our viewers in the United States and all around the world. This is NEW DAY. It's Tuesday, November 6th, 8:00 here in Washington. Game on. Election Day 2018. It is finally here. Alisyn has been counting down the minutes.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: So soon. It's here so soon.

BERMAN: Who knew it was coming.

CAMEROTA: Honestly. Why rush it?

BERMAN: Polls now open in 37 states. Look at the map. And here in Washington, D.C. Who will win? We don't know. We don't know. Anything could happen over the next 12 hours. What we do know, as you can see live pictures of voters headed to the polls in locations across the country, is this is a defining election for the country and for the president. Intensity seems very high -- 31 million people have already cast early votes. The big question, balance of power in Congress. Will Democrats be able to flip either the House or Senate? Will Republicans keep control?

CAMEROTA: Interesting to see all of those lines already at this hour. All 435 House seats are in play, along with 35 seats in the Senate. And which party will win the 36 governor's races? Those can tell us a lot about the direction of the country.

The elections today are also of course about President Trump. The president is making his final pitch to save the Republican majority in Congress. On Monday, he attended three rallies in three states. He intensified his anti-immigrant rhetoric.

BERMAN: Sources tell CNN the president hated an upbeat campaign ad featuring a positive message about the economy. He didn't like it. He insisted instead that his closing argument should be about hardline anti-immigration messaging, and that included the ad that was considered to racist and so false it was rejected by CNN. It was later pulled by FOX, Facebook, and NBC, though on NBC after the ad aired on Sunday night football. We're also watching severe weather that could affect voter turnout across the country. This is a big deal and voters watching that very closely.

So let's bring in "New York Times" national political correspondent and CNN political analyst, Jonathan Martin, national correspondent for "Bloomberg Business Week" and CNN political analyst Joshua Green, CNN political commentator Ana Navarro, and former Clinton White House press secretary Joe Lockhart, a CNN political commentator. Very important titles to all of you. Thank you all for being here with us today.

This is a big deal today. We don't know what's going to happen. Today is not a day about the polls that we have seen until now. Today is the day to go out and vote. What we do know is that this election is very much about the president and will tell us a lot, Josh, about what the country thinks of this president and what he has done with his office in the last two years.

JOSHUA GREEN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I think that's exactly right. Trump's former chief strategist Steve Bannon has a line I think applies. He likes to say this is Trump's first reelection. It isn't really, but it kind of is. He's the guy on the ballot. He wants the race to be all about him. Democratic and Republican polls show that the race is all about him. This is a referendum on Donald Trump. I think the outcome is going to tell us a lot about how the country feels about the first two years of his presidency.

CAMEROTA: J-Mart.

JONATHAN MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. And I think the larger question, not just Trump, but Trumpism. And by that I mean obviously his conduct in office, his rhetoric, is that going to be sort of still accepted? But I also think it's important also to think about there is a sense among a lot of folks in Washington, especially, that somehow the rules of political gravity don't apply to this president, that somehow he has defied gravity for two and a half years now. Well, if the Democrats do take back the House, I think it is a reminder that, in fact, there are still some rules left in American politics, still some things that you can say that there will be a backlash.

BERMAN: But if he is able to maintain control of the House, we'll see the opposite. We will see people saying nothing matters anymore. Polls don't matter. Predictions don't matter. We don't know anything.

MARTIN: And there is some kind of payoff for the kind of demagoguery that he has done on race for the last couple years in this country.

CAMEROTA: Joe, as a Democrat, it sounds like you are feeling pretty bullish about what will happen today. I read you don't think the president's message of anti-immigration, fearmongering, will pay off. What makes you so confident?

JOE LOCKHART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Because I think the country will reject that. But I don't know that. Building on what the other guys have said, when you look at wave elections, 2006, 2010 a little bit for Republicans because it changed the nature of Republicans, 2014, it's when the country is feeling we need a change of direction. This isn't that. I think this is the country deciding what our identity as a country is, what our soul is. And it goes to, does demagoguery work, which is a step toward authoritarianism, or do the general rules of the road have been pushed the envelope where they're going to snap back here?

[08:05:00] And that's really what we're going to decide today. So for once saying this is the most important election in whatever blank, I think that's right this time.

BERMAN: Ana, is it the most important midterm election ever?

ANA NAVARRO, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Sure as hell is for me, I can tell you that. For the first time in my lifetime, my Congressional seat is up for grabs. It has been held by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a moderate Republican for 28 years. My Senate race is up for grabs. My governor's race is up for grabs. And I do feel as a Florida voter that it is a referendum on Trump, and that most people saw it that way.

I'm as nervous as a turtle crossing a busy highway today. And we used to say polls don't matter. The only poll that matters is Election Day. It is so true right now. It is so true today. I ran into two congressional candidates at an early voting site in south Florida on Sunday. They both told me their internal polls had them 10 points up, and they are running against each other.

(LAUGHTER)

NAVARRO: So I do think that the polls are all over the place. We have seen them be all over the place in Florida, for example. And we have seen Election Day surprises in places like Florida where everybody expected Hillary Clinton to win two years ago. So it's true, the only poll that matters is Election Day. So get off the couch. When we're done, get off the couch and vote.

(LAUGHTER)

CAMEROTA: She has her priorities, ratings. And then when we're done go vote. But Ana, I'm just curious, what makes you so nervous? What are you afraid is going to happen at the end of tonight?

NAVARRO: What makes me nervous is the fact that I do think this is about the heart and soul of America. And I am nervous about the idea that America might reaffirm what I see as a racist, divisive, hostile, bad, ineffective, incapable president. And that would be, I think, very sad for some of us that believe in America's better angels, that believe in inspiration and unity.

One of the things that's good about this campaign, if anything, is that really there is such a contrast. Voters have such a choice, such a different choice to select from. Sometimes we have gotten to the point where establishment Republicans and establishment Democrats, you could hardly tell them apart. Right now you can tell the two parties, you can tell the candidates apart. And, so, you know, I'm just hoping that America chooses happy, unity, good, improvement, better future, bright, wake up for a better morning, and not gloom and doom.

BERMAN: We should tell people, Ana, that you have decided to vote for Andrew Gillum. You are a lifelong Republican, but you're going to vote for a Democratic candidate there largely because of the president.

NAVARRO: And let me tell you, I was so loyal on the ballot, I voted for Charlie Crist who I thought had the intellectual curiosity of a lump of coal. I voted for Rick Scott, who had a bunch of issues. But I voted Republican. But let me tell you what the difference is. In 2016, I voted for Hillary Clinton because I voted against Donald Trump. In 2018, I am voting against Donald Trump, but I am also voting for Andrew Gillum. He has managed to awake something that eluded Hillary Clinton.

BERMAN: So is Ana Navarro a unicorn here, is the question. Is she alone, or are there other traditional Republican voters and in some cases white suburban women who will make the same choice?

MARTIN: Yes. There's lots of them. And the good news for Democrats in the House is that they are largely clustered in suburban areas around the country. The bad news for Democrats is that there are fewer of them in the Senate races that are up for grabs this year.

But Ana mentioned 2016, and I have been thinking a lot about 2016. And I do think it has created a sort of measure of conservatism, small "c," in the folks who are analyzing and who are trying to figure out what's going to happen, because I think all of who did cover that race and obviously saw the unexpected are more cautious now.

But if you look at the race by race polling in the House, guys, there are so many warning signing and red flags for Republican candidates. Just look at some of their incumbents, where they are in polling, some of these open seats are obviously tilting Democrat. I just wonder if we're being a little bit more gun shy now about what's going to happen in the House because of what happened in 2016 when it's very clear where the signs are pointing in the House.

CAMEROTA: That's interesting. And what are you looking at?

GREEN: It's clear the signs are pointing that way. But let me speak up for being gun shy as somebody who maybe wasn't in previous elections. We really don't know yet whether these Republican House candidates and to an extent Senate candidates will be able to defy gravity the way Trump did in 2016. Again and again and again he came back from scandals and crises that would bury any other politician.

[08:10:00] It looks based on the polling that I've seen, based on the polls we have all seen, the Republicans may not be able to survive this wave in the House. But then again, we're not going to know until the votes come in to see if that Trump magic can extend to people who aren't named Donald Trump. BERMAN: I think that's one of the most fascinating questions. We're

talking about setting the parameter of Trumpism, that is one of the parameters there.

MARTIN: Can he transfer it, and if you just look at the president so far, guys, in a series of special elections and two governor races last year, the verdict has not been good for Republicans in the Trump era for candidate who are not named Donald Trump.

NAVARRO: I will tell you, I'm sure if he can transfer the magic, but I do know you transferred the baggage, and that there is a lot of Republicans who would be easily winning right now who are having a hard time because of the baggage they are carrying due to Donald Trump.

BERMAN: But I will say Democrats are not as overtly joyously optimistic as the picture that is being painted right here. They're nervous, and the reason they're nervous isn't just because of history, because they've been through this before. It is because it is hard to model the type of enthusiasm that Donald Trump engendered in 2016. And it's hard to predict what could be a counter level of enthusiasm among Democrats. It is just hard to model it. So there is all of that uncertainty.

LOCKHART: I think part of it is being gun shy. A lot of this is emotion now among Democrats because people were burned in 2016. Personally, I told everyone who listens to me, which is about three people, that Hillary Clinton was going to win and don't worry about it. And I had to explain to them that she didn't. But I think some of it, a big piece of it is Democrats have purposefully tried to keep this thing, particularly in House races, suspenseful to make sure people don't stay home.

MARTIN: There's something to that.

LOCKHART: The other point I would make is you referenced Jeff Zeleny's reporting that Trump hated the economic ad. Trump is a great instinctual politician and he understands his constituency. And the fact of the matter is those 15,000 people who go into an arena are not feeling good about the economy themselves. They are not. What they are feeling good about is Donald Trump and the fact that Donald Trump hears them and he's tapped into their anger, not their optimism. So there is a reason. And I think it's Trump's instinct that they're not going to buy that you are making more money because they're not. But they are going to buy that a caravan is coming across the border and invaders are going to come and rape your children. And that's why. So I think you've got to give Trump credit for understanding his base and how they think and how you activate them.

MARTIN: John, one more fast point for folks out here who are thinking today about the polls, whether the polls are right or whether the polls are wrong, because that is going to be sort of a running commentary today. I think it is important to keep something in mind, that the polls were more accurate in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote and obviously lost the electoral vote then they were last year in the governor's race in my home state in Virginia when the polls did not capture Democratic enthusiasm and only had now Governor Northam winning by three or four points going into Election Day. He won by nine points because, again, you are putting up the modeling, they could not accurately track the levels of Democratic enthusiasm, especially in high-income suburbs. Voters were coming out against President Trump in a state race in an off-off year. So important to keep that in mind in terms of how to model this.

NAVARRO: I think 2016, one of the lessons of 2016 is there is sometimes in life where you have binary choices. Writing in Mickey Mouse or leaving it blank or voting for Jill Stein or voting for -- what's the name of the guy who likes pot in New Mexico? Gary Johnson.

MARTIN: He's running for Senate now.

NAVARRO: It is not an option. I think people understand in 2018 that what they are facing is a binary choice. And they know what that choice is.

CAMEROTA: OK. Panel, thank you very much for spelling it all out for us.

BERMAN: Great discussion.

CAMEROTA: It is going to be a very exciting day and evening.

BERMAN: CNN's Election night in America. Coverage begins at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. Then, just because you asked for it, a very special NEW DAY beginning at 5:00 a.m. eastern time.

CAMEROTA: By popular demand, yes.

BERMAN: Alisyn Camerota demanded showing up at 5:00.

CAMEROTA: You can't enough of us, I feel.

Voters across America are casting their votes as we speak. We have live reports from key battleground states. We will show you how it looks next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:18:47] CAMEROTA: Polls are now open in 37 states, and Washington, D.C.

Here is a shot of Sterling, Virginia right there.

CNN has reporters in many of the key battleground states all across the country.

So let's begin with Rosa Flores. She's live in Florida, home of the two most contentious races in the country.

What are you seeing, Rosa?

ROSA FLORES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Alisyn, good morning.

I just talked to a voter, and that voter said, if you don't vote today, you can't complain later. Very wise words.

Take a look behind me because these polls have been open for just over an hour. We have seen an engaged electorate here in Florida. We have more than 13 million registered voters and more than 5 million have already voted. That's more than 38 percent.

But the breakdown by party is nail-biting. Just take a look at these numbers of those early voters, 40.1 percent are Republican, 40.5 percent are Democrat. And the remaining are no party affiliation or other, and that's 19.3 percent.

Now, overall, there is a misconception that most Florida voters are seniors. That is not the case.

[08:20:00] This year, 52 percent are either millennials, Gen-Xers or Gen-Zers, meaning that this younger bloc of voters is more diverse. They are very much interested in jobs, the environment, health care.

Now, we're seeing that same dynamic in other states around the country. I want to take you now to Texas where my colleague Athena Jones is standing by.

Athena, good morning.

ATHENA JONES, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning. Thanks, Rosa.

Polls opened here just in the last 20 minutes or so, and we're in Tarrant County. This is the third most populous county in the state. It's also the large urban county, the only large urban county that remains remain. We'll see if that changes today.

We're here in Tarrant because it's a bellwether county. The big races that we are watching like the race between Senator Ted Cruz and Democratic Representative Beto O'Rourke, who hopes to be senator, we know they're going to be watching closely what happens in this country because President Trump beat Hillary Clinton here by nine points. That's the same margin by which he won the state of Texas.

And if you talk to someone like O'Rourke, he has said, as Tarrant County goes, so goes the state. We have to win here in order to be able to win the state. Of course, it will come down to the shape and size of the electorate.

And we've seen some real enthusiasm in early voting numbers, just like we're seeing in Florida, early voting in Tarrant County tops 465,000. That is far more than past midterms and even is more than the early voting in 2012. So, we will be watching to see which party, which nd candidate benefits the most from that extra enthusiasm.

We're going to send it over to Ryan Young in Wisconsin.

RYAN YOUNG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, thanks, Athena. We have also seen that impact of the people with the early voting, absentee ballots have been up, record numbers here, 500,000 people. But we have also seen the impact here at the polls. This morning, people were lining up before they even opened to make sure they were in line to cast a vote.

Talking to one voter yesterday, he told me he was focused on this because he feels like the state needs a change. He wants to see something happen. Now, you remember, Scott Walker is the governor here. He ran for president.

But he is in a dead heat with Tony Evers, somebody who was the school superintendent for the state here. There's been a lot of conversation not only about health care but making change. And you think about it. The Harley-Davidson plant, just outside Milwaukee took a big impact with some of the policies that have been going on. That's a big focus here.

John, a lot of people watching the polls today to see what happens. People are out strong in early numbers.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: There will be a big question in many locations across the country.

Ryan, to you in Wisconsin, thank you so much for being with us.

Nice to see the voters and lines across the country. It is up to them today.

CAMEROTA: Yes, it is.

BERMAN: As Rosa was saying before, if you don't vote, don't complain about it tomorrow.

CAMEROTA: Or for the next two years, I would say.

BERMAN: Exactly.

So did the president choose the right closing message? A lot of Republican insiders ask us this morning, WWHBD? What would Haley Barbour do? We'll ask him, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:26:00]

BERMAN: It's here. Today is the day, the balance of power in this country at stake. All 435 house seats, 35 senate seats up for grabs -- 36 governor's mansions also. No more campaigns, no more polls -- it is your vote that matters today. The question, will there be a blue wave or red wall?

Joining me now the former Governor of Mississippi, Haley Barbour, he was Republican National Committee Chair in 1994 when the republicans took both the house and the senate and notably governor, you are wearing a burgundy tie, albeit with elephants -- because you have an idea of whether it will be a blue wave or red wall.

HALEY BARBOUR: Yeah, I don't think there will be a wave. I don't think there will be a blue wave or a red wave. I think that the -- my magenta tie is to state that I think one side maybe the democrats win the house, not certain. Probably the republicans keep the senate, not certain.

I do think among governors -- I was chairman of republican governors eight years ago when we had some big gains. Republicans are off a high, high watermark (ph) -- 33, the most we've ever had in history is 34.

So you got 33 republican governors up and 16 democrats, plus 1 independent. Half the republican governors can't run again, half of the 26 who are up today. That's -- that just says to me probably going to lose governorship, the question how many.

BERMAN: The president of the United States has made this election as much about him as a Chief Executive can. And often times you see presidents try to do the exact opposite in the mid-term election, but he's out there literally telling voters at rallies, "this is about me". Do you think republicans around the country want that?

BARBOUR: Well, some do -- some don't. And I think they're -- Americans generally kind of divide up in to three groups for this election purpose. A. there are those who just don't like Trump no matter what. B. there are those that love Trump no matter what.

But then there's a large group, maybe 25 percent of the country that's a, "well I don't like Trump personally, he's not my cup of tea. I like the results he's getting, I like the policies he's putting in place." Now who do those people vote for? If they vote for their policies, they'd be for the republicans. If they vote because they don't like Trump, makes the democrats do better.

BERMAN: But our reporting, Jeff Zeleny, our White House reporter is reporting that the president rejected -- there was a positive campaign ad that they had on a $6 million buy, talking about the tax cuts and the booming economy.

He didn't want that, he didn't want to run on his record (ph) or what you say are the positive achievements he's had. So is he sort of put them at risk there?

BARBOUR: Well, as I say I think the best thing for us is if American people look at the Trump administration and the republican Congress and say, "what did they achieve? What are the accomplishments?"

Because they're great accomplishments, this -- we've got an economy -- when Barack Obama was president, on Main Street you couldn't tell the difference between the recession and the recovery.

You know, it may have been great on Wall Street, but it sucked on Main Street. It was bad in the heartland. Today, we're seeing organic growth all over the country, and we're seeing it because of right tax policies.