Return to Transcripts main page
New Day
Will Sentencing Judge Show Mercy on Michael Cohen?; Democrats Eyeing A 2020 Run Near Decision Time; CNN Reality Check: Russia's Other Suspected Meddling Campaigns. Aired 7:30-8a ET
Aired December 11, 2018 - 07:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[07:31:20] ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: President Trump's longtime attorney Michael Cohen will be sentenced tomorrow for committing tax fraud and breaking campaign finance laws at the direction, he says, of Donald Trump.
Joining us now is CNN legal analyst Elie Honig, a former federal prosecutor who has argued in front of the very judge that Michael Cohen faces. Elie, great to have you here with your particular perspective.
So this is Judge William Pauley. You have been in his courtroom many times. What's he like?
ELIE HONIG, CNN LEGAL ANALYST, FORMER FEDERAL PROSECUTOR: He's tough. He's fair but tough. He's a little intimidating.
Just to give you a visual, if you've seen "My Cousin Vinny" -- the judge in that movie -- he actually looks fairly like Judge Pauley. And he's intimidating, but he's fair.
And one of the things that Judge Pauley is big on is he has very little tolerance for people who are in positions of authority or power who abuse those positions. And you can see the Southern District knows that because in their sentencing memo for Cohen they stress he was a person of means, he was a person of education who committed these crimes out of greed.
CAMEROTA: So, does that tell you that he is not going to look favorably on Michael Cohen and may sentence him -- and he may throw the book at him?
HONIG: It does, it does. I would not be feeling good if I was Michael Cohen or his legal team right now. Cohen's -- his sentencing guidelines range, which is kind of the starting point for a sentence -- it's not binding but the judge has to consider it -- is 51 to 63 months. A little over four -- a little over five years.
CAMEROTA: That's a lot.
HONIG: It's a lot of time, it is. Look, the federal sentencing guidelines are tough and he was engaged in high number fraud -- tax fraud, income fraud, bank fraud -- in addition to the campaign finance.
CAMEROTA: Those are separate and apart --
HONIG: Yes.
CAMEROTA: -- from the campaign finance from his taxi business.
HONIG: Right, exactly. And what happens under the federal guidelines is it all gets mashed together and you come out with a number, and he comes out with 51 to 63 months. I do think he'll get something below that, but not much.
CAMEROTA: Why do you think it will be below those sentencing guidelines if Judge Pauley is kind of a tough judge?
HONIG: Because both the Southern District and Mueller, to varying extents, asked for Cohen to get some downward consideration -- not complete, but some downward consideration for his cooperation. The Southern District sort of begrudgingly says he gave us a little bit of information but he didn't -- he didn't want to answer certain questions. So because he was helpful to Mueller he should get something.
Mueller's a little more enthusiastic. Mueller says look, he was credible, he was consistent with the other evidence. He should get some consideration.
CAMEROTA: Here's a relevant passage from the SCNY sentencing memo.
"With respect to both payments" -- this is about the campaign finance laws -- the hush money payments to the porn star and the Playboy playmate.
"With respect to both payments, Cohen acted with the intent to influence the 2016 presidential election. In particular, and as Cohen himself has now admitted, with respect to both payments, he acted in coordination with and at the direction of Individual-1." And we know Individual-1 is Donald Trump.
And, Michael Cohen has reportedly been telling friends and I think some reporters that he is mystified as to why he would face five years in prison. I mean, if you count the campaign finance laws in the --
HONIG: Yes.
CAMEROTA: -- mashed up other things -- for committing a crime at the behest of Donald Trump, and Donald Trump is unscathed.
How does that work?
HONIG: Yes. So look, part of -- the campaign finance is only part of what's driving that five years. But, Donald Trump's the president. There are different policies that DOJ has regarding the president.
But that passage that you just read Alisyn is so important because there you have the United States Department of Justice, I think for the first time in this administration, committing on paper in something submitted to a judge -- which the Southern District would not do unless they had it locked in -- that the president was involved in the campaign finance violations.
CAMEROTA: So you see that as -- above and beyond Michael Cohen, that to you is the most relevant thing that has happened in the past week that is a game changer.
HONIG: Absolutely. I mean, there is no way the Southern District would put that in writing just because of a cooperating witness -- one who they weren't super enthusiastic about it.
[07:35:06] CAMEROTA: It's not just based on Michael Cohen's word?
HONIG: They have to have more. They have to have something more than Michael Cohen's word.
CAMEROTA: Such as?
HONIG: It could be documents, it could be another witness they deem reliable, it could be e-mails, it could be tapes, it could be anything.
But like Robert Mueller, we -- Robert Mueller is batting a thousand. Everything that Robert Mueller has committed to in court papers has proven out.
The Southern District has the same standard. I worked there -- I know that they're extremely careful, especially in the case of this high priority.
CAMEROTA: I mean, that's totally separate and apart than Michael Cohen's sentencing, but that's the part that you think that when it is finally revealed, that's when America and Democrats will have to figure out how they want to treat Donald Trump.
HONIG: Yes, I think the campaign finance violations are the most readily provable offenses right now. I think if you had to you could probably go into a grand jury -- put aside that it's the president -- and probably come back with an indictment based on the existing evidence.
Politically, I think there's a separate question -- is that going to be enough to move Republicans off of him? And I think the larger corruption piece -- which again, Cohen's relevant to the Moscow project -- the $100 million development deals they were trying to do. That, I think, may be enough to move Republicans on the political end.
CAMEROTA: Well, we shall see about that.
But last, I mean, given that you know Judge Pauley -- I read that you said that even you have received tongue lashings --
HONIG: Yes, it's true.
CAMEROTA: -- from him -- how do you think that this whole moment is going to go this week when Michael Cohen is sentenced?
HONIG: I think Judge Pauley's going to come down hard on him. I think Judge Pauley is going to have very little sort of sympathy for Michael Cohen and I do think he's going to be sentenced to multiple years in prison.
CAMEROTA: And exactly how many months would you say?
HONIG: If you put me to it -- if I had to guess here on the spot I'm going to put the over-under at 36 months.
CAMEROTA: We'll see. That's a long time in prison.
HONIG: It is.
CAMEROTA: Elie Honig, thank you --
HONIG: Thanks, Alisyn.
CAMEROTA: -- very much. Thanks for all the perspective -- John.
JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, great discussion, Alisyn. Thanks so much.
So imagine this for a Democratic presidential race in 2020 -- Bernie versus Beto. It's a lot of b's. We'll discuss, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[07:40:40] BERMAN: We have, what, like two weeks left in 2018 --
CAMEROTA: Yes.
BERMAN: -- which means it's practically Election Day 2020 --
CAMEROTA: Bite your tongue.
BERMAN: -- which I know is your favorite subject.
CAMEROTA: Bite your tongue.
BERMAN: Look, there's a lot of interesting developments. There are a lot of interesting developments in the Democratic field for president in 2020.
Let's discuss because we are running out of time. Joining me now is Harry Enten, obviously, our senior political analyst -- there is something about Harry. Harry, lay out just how close we are.
HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I just want to point out I know Alisyn doesn't believe necessarily in this 2020 stuff, but I believe so firmly in it that I got myself a new sport coat --
CAMEROTA: Wow.
ENTEN: -- a new shirt. We got new shoes. CAMEROTA: This is all in honor of 2020? I feel it's premature.
ENTEN: All in honor of 20 -- all in honor of 2020 because look, we're only 99 weeks away. We're right there.
CAMEROTA: Keep sharp objects from me.
ENTEN: And we're only -- look at this -- only 59 weeks away from the Iowa caucus. We're very, very close.
CAMEROTA: All right.
ENTEN: But let's get --
BERMAN: I know it makes you so upset but there's really genuinely interesting stuff happening in this field, specifically --
CAMEROTA: You know what? I'm going to go to the airport right now and go to Iowa.
BERMAN: You're going to go to Iowa.
CAMEROTA: I'm going to go get -- I'm going to go to Iowa right now.
ENTEN: People in Iowa are lovely.
BERMAN: I think there are interesting developments, particularly with Bernie Sanders and Beto O'Rourke -- their supporters.
ENTEN: Right, yes.
So, you know, there's all this stuff about Beto O'Rourke running and a lot of Bernie Sanders people are saying hold on, pump the brakes here. We don't necessarily like that Beto is receiving all this attention. And the main charge against Beto O'Rourke is that he's not liberal enough.
BERMAN: From the Bernie --
ENTEN: From the Bernie people that he's not liberal enough, he's not progressive enough.
You can read this entire quote but basically, the bottom line of it is that the Bernie Sanders people are saying hey, Beto does not have a very progressive record.
TEXT: BuzzFeed News: "Progressives on Twitter are pointing to O'Rourke's shift in language on the campaign trail around health care policy and his decision to not sponsor bills regarding Medicare for All and free college, and his membership in the centrist New Democrat Coalition, as building a progressive case against a potential presidential campaign."
CAMEROTA: And let's look at his record.
ENTEN: And -- CAMEROTA: Is that true?
ENTEN: That is actually true. So my old friends at FiveThirtyEight.com actually compile this stuff and they basically found that Beto O'Rourke votes with Donald Trump 29 percent of the time versus Bernie Sanders who only votes with Donald Trump 11 percent.
CAMEROTA: OK, so they can have -- progressives can have a beef with him.
ENTEN: They definitely can have a beef, but the question is whether or not they'll actually work with the electorate.
So let's take a look. I think, you know, one of the big misunderstandings of 2016 was the Bernie Sanders was able to build a base on very liberal voters and they, in fact, made up 25 percent of the electorate according to the exit polls.
But look at this. Sanders' margin versus Hillary Clinton -- they were actually tied among very liberal voters. I think Bernie Sanders liked to say hey, people are voting for me because I'm very liberal and they want this more progressive agenda. But, indeed, that wasn't really the case at all.
BERMAN: So what were they voting on?
ENTEN: Well --
BERMAN: What does -- what do the numbers tell us?
ENTEN: Right. So first off, this is a very interesting thing. Remember, it was really young voters that seemed to really go into Bernie Sanders' camp -- 18- to 39-year-olds. Anyway, it made up 32 percent of the electorate. They went for Bernie Sanders by 27 percentage points.
Now, the question is why were they so attracted to him? Well, clearly, it wasn't this liberal thing because we see this and there's not --
BERMAN: A tie with Hillary.
ENTEN: Right, exactly.
But I would argue that the reason that they really liked Bernie Sanders was because they saw him as an Independent. Remember, Bernie Sanders basically has two things going for him, right? He's very progressive but he also doesn't -- isn't actually a registered Democrat. He's an Independent with the Democratic caucus.
BERMAN: This isn't an Independent "big eye" thing though.
ENTEN: Right.
BERMAN: This is not tied to the party -- ENTEN: Right.
BERMAN: -- which is a bigger issue or an outsider would be a different way of saying it.
ENTEN: Right. He is -- he is seen as an outsider and that is what a lot of young people are -- consider themselves as.
In fact, if you will go through the Pew Research Center and you will look and say, OK, say you call yourself a Democrat. Would you say you're actually a Democrat or are you an Independent leaning in the Democratic column? Millennials are much more likely to say they're leaning in the Democratic column but the actually first consider themselves in Independent, and this is exactly what the numbers show.
Independents made up 24 percent of Democratic primary voters and they went for Bernie Sanders by a 29-point margin, which looks an awful -- whoops, wrong slide -- awful bit like this number with this 27. And then you go here and you get this 29.
CAMEROTA: But do they consider Beto an outsider?
ENTEN: Well, let's think about this, right? Beto O'Rourke is this young guy, kind of perhaps aligning himself with young voters.
He's only a 3-term congressman -- or was a 3-term congressman. He'll be out of a job come January -- from the state of Texas and he was able to sell himself as this progressive -- sort of outsider candidate. And this is the type of candidate I think Bernie Sanders could have a lot of problems with.
And I think -- forget Beto O'Rourke for a second. I think there are going to be a lot of candidates who are going to be running who don't necessarily have that Washington stink with them and may be able to go into Bernie Sanders' backyard and take a lot of these Independent votes.
[07:45:00] BERMAN: And that, in the end, may be what the most important part of this is as you're looking at it. It's not a Bernie and Beto thing.
There's this notion that everyone is running to the left in this Democratic primary or there's a rush to the left, but these numbers suggest it may not be the left that's the place to go. It's the outside is the place to go.
ENTEN: Exactly right because remember, we go to this -- we back to this -- it was a tie. Hillary Clinton was seen as liberal enough by most people who were voting in that Democratic primary. It was just that she wasn't able to sell herself necessarily as this Independent outside of the party establishment.
So if we were to look at the lanes going into 2020, it may not be that this sort of Bernie Sanders lane is filled by a progressive. It could, in fact, be filled by someone who actually has a much more moderate voting record. Remember, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, in 2008 -- yes, Barack Obama didn't vote for the war in Iraq but he was able to win over these Independent young voters. And remember this huge gap among young voters. So someone was able to sell themselves as a -- as someone who is from outside the party establishment and may be young hip.
Remember, we were talking last week, John -- you weren't here -- we missed you so much --
CAMEROTA: Thank you.
ENTEN: -- where you looked at what the people -- the Iowa chairmen -- Democratic chairmen were thinking about. They saw and said we want someone who is young and that mets Beto O'Rourke pretty well and it meets a lot of the candidates, too.
CAMEROTA: Did they say a former punk rocker?
ENTEN: I don't know very much about music except for my uncles and television theme songs. How about the Roy Rogers jingle from 1986? We were talking about Roy Rogers beforehand -- big fan.
CAMEROTA: I knew you were going to work in a reference to that.
BERMAN: Yes, it was coming -- it was coming. But you did punk rock, so it's the same thing.
ENTEN: Did you know the Roy Rogers one?
CAMEROTA: No, I don't.
ENTEN: Well --
CAMEROTA: Will you hum a few bars in the commercial?
ENTEN: There we go.
CAMEROTA: We want viewers.
Harry's forecast is available each day by 9:00 a.m. at cnn.com/forecast. It will include the range and certainty of the prediction -- good one -- along with a daily column to break down what it means for Democrats, Republicans, and you.
BERMAN: Nothing sells like the range of the prediction.
Vladimir Putin's Russia suspected of trying to influence voters. It's not the story you think you know. A CNN reality check, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[07:51:00] CAMEROTA: Here's some disturbing video that is going viral. It shows a group of New York City police officers ripping a child from his mother.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh my God! Oh my God! You can't do that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAMEROTA: At one point, one officer pulls out a yellow stun gun and begins to point it around the room.
The chaotic scene unfolded at a government welfare office in Brooklyn. The NYPD says officers were there on a disorderly conduct call. Officers say they tried to get the woman to move numerous times but she refused. She was arrested on several charges, including resisting arrest.
The NYPD calls the incident quote "disturbing" and says it is under review.
BERMAN: All right.
Five missing Marines, missing in a midair collision off the coast of Japan, have been declared dead. The victims were among seven crew members aboard two military aircraft that crashed. The U.S. military called off the search for the Marines on Tuesday. The identities of the Marines have not been released.
U.S., Japanese, and Australian forces conducting more than 800 hours of air and maritime search operations covering more than 35,000 square miles of ocean.
CAMEROTA: Well, Russia's President Vladimir Putin directed thousands of fake Twitter accounts to help influence a vote. Does that sound familiar? Well, it's not our election that we're talking about.
BERMAN: There's a twist.
CAMEROTA: Yes, there's a twist -- it's Brexit. And in many ways, the effects have been far worse.
CNN senior political analyst John Avlon has our reality check. Tell us about this one, John.
JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That's right, Ali.
So, today British politics is polarized and paralyzed thanks to Brexit with the narrow nationalist vote to leave the E.U. that was seen as a populist predecessor to President Trump. Trump even promised his own election would be quote "Brexit, plus, plus, plus."
But the devil's in the details and the process is totally shambolic with Prime Minister Theresa May, today, punting a key Brexit vote in Parliament to January.
Look, we are a long way from the heady days of the nationalist movement captured in this "Economist" cover from November 2016. There's victorious Donald Trump marching alongside Mr. Brexit, Nigel Farage, and Vladimir Putin. In the background, there's France's Marine Le Pen.
Now, lest you think the Putin reference is kind of a cheap shot, we know that Moscow Bank funded Le Pen's political party and Parliament is currently investigating whether Russia backed Brexit, financially or via social media.
For example, on the day of the Brexit referendum, the Twitter trolling machine went into overdrive with an estimated 150,000 Russia-linked accounts tweeting over and over again in support of Brexit.
Some prominent pro-Trump accounts, like Jenna Abrams, promoted the Brexit cause before being exposed as a Russian troll.
Now, it's funny how some of these alleged nationalist voices for strengthening sovereignty end up pushing Putin's foreign policy -- weird.
But that's not all. The former head of the U.K. Independence Party, Nigel Farage, shares a strange reluctance to criticize Vladimir Putin but is quick to criticize European sanctions against Russia. Farage was in contact with WikiLeaks' Julian Assange, who released the Russian-hacked DNC documents.
And we also know about multiple previously undisclosed meetings between the backers of Brexit and the Russian ambassador to the U.K.
Not only that, but Brexit bros reached out to Steve Bannon's data firm, Cambridge Analytica, to work up a plan for raising money and pro-Brexit sentiment in the USA.
Now, all of this has gotten the attention of Bob Mueller, who has taken a particularly keen interest in Trump campaign adviser and Brexit booster, Ted Malloch.
So just to recap, you've got two nations with budding nationalist movements. Two bold, but easily influenced leaders who like strong men, thousands of fake Twitter accounts, and one man behind it -- Vladimir Putin.
Top House Intel Democrat Adam Schiff neatly summed it all up. Quote, "The parallels between the Russian intervention and Brexit and the Russian intervention in the Trump campaign appear to be extraordinary."
Before we go, there's another allied country in Europe where chaos is reigning lately. Widespread protests are tearing up Paris. And without a shred of evidence, President Trump blamed the anti-tax protests, which are basically about income equality, on the Paris climate accord, and then conjured up an idea that the protesters were chanting "We want Trump" -- not even a little bit.
[07:55:04] But there is evidence that Russia's fanning the flames here as well, with France investigating hundreds of pro-Russian social media accounts promoting the violent protests.
In contrast, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov offered this statement with a straight face. Quote, "We have not interfered and we don't plan to interfere in the domestic affairs of any country, including France."
And that's your reality check.
CAMEROTA: John, your shambolic reference sham-wowed us.
AVLON: Wow -- your sham-wow reference is, you know, wowing me.
CAMEROTA: Yes. Feel free to use that in the future in a future reality check.
BERMAN: I stick with shambolic.
CAMEROTA: OK. Thank you.
OK, late-night comics enjoying the scramble to fill the White House chief of staff job. Here are your "Late-Night Laughs."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JIMMY FALLON, HOST, NBC "THE TONIGHT SHOW STARRING JIMMY FALLON": I have good news. If anyone here wants to be President Trump's chief of staff, just raise your hand and the job is yours. Yes, no, maybe, no.
That's right, President Trump's chief of staff, John Kelly, is leaving the White House. It won't take long to pack up his office because the only things in his desk are some Tylenol and a bottle of vodka.
STEPHEN COLBERT, CBS HOST, "THE LATE SHOW WITH STEPHEN COLBERT": I'd like to take this opportunity to officially throw my hat in the ring.
Who would pass up the chance to spend 10 minutes on the deck of the Titanic while it's sinking? I don't know. I'm really curious to hear what a band sounds like when they know they're about to take the big bath.
TREVOR NOAH, COMEDY CENTRAL HOST, "THE DAILY SHOW WITH TREVOR NOAH": This is so depressing. But at the same time, of course, nobody wants this job, right? We all know by now what happens if you work for Trump.
At some point, you're going to lose your credibility and then you spend every day being insulted by a 72-year-old 5-year-old. Who would want that?
So many Americans don't want this job, Trump might have to let a Mexican do it. You realize that, right?
SETH MEYERS, NBC HOST, "LATE NIGHT WITH SETH MEYERS": President Trump, today, quoted "FOX NEWS" while defending himself from the Russia investigation, saying "Democrats can't find a smocking gun tying the Trump campaign to Russia after James Comey's testimony. No smocking gun, no collusion."
Now, I know what you're going to say. Are you going to mock him just for a typo? No, I'm going to moke him.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAMEROTA: Oh, there's a lot of material in typos, OK, and a lot of developments in the Russia investigation. So let's get to it all.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He has a continuing worry and I think it's a mounting worry.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Impeachment is a given. I think the White House and those of us who support the Trump agenda, we need to start to prepare.
SEN. ORRIN HATCH (R-UT), MEMBER, JUDICIARY COMMITTEE: Democrats will do anything to hurt this president.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: These former senators are telling their current colleagues, please put your patriotism over your faith to the Republican Party.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Nobody, whether you affiliate with the Republicans or Democrats, should ever be working on behalf of a foreign government, much less the Russians.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He feels somewhat humiliated by the way this has played out and he doesn't have any plan B.
JARED KUSHNER, WHITE HOUSE SENIOR ADVISER: The president will make the right choice for chief of staff when he's ready.
SEN. JEFF FLAKE (R), ARIZONA: It's tough under any circumstances, but under this kind of White House, extremely difficult.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Alisyn Camerota and John Berman.
BERMAN: All right, good morning and welcome to your NEW DAY. It is Tuesday, December 11th, 8:00 in the east.
And we do have a bit of breaking news on the president's hunt for a new chief of staff. It comes from our friend, CNN's Jake Tapper, who is up strangely early this morning.
CAMEROTA: Hmm.
BERMAN: He reports that the president is particularly interested in David Bossie's experience in Clinton impeachment given what he expects is coming down the pike. That's a direct quote from something Jake just wrote.
Now, David Bossie was deputy campaign manager for Donald Trump, but he did work extensively on the Clinton impeachment, both in and out of government. And he just co-authored a book with Corey Lewandowski. He does seem particularly relevant and this lines up with Jake's
reporting given what a source also tells CNN that President Trump thinks it is a real possibility that he could be impeached. That would be an effort driven by House Democrats.
But beyond that, though -- beyond the Democrats, it isn't clear that the president has much to fear from Congress because even with the mounting evidence that the president would likely face indictment were he not president -- that's what legal experts tells us -- even with the mounting evidence that 16 Trump associates had contact with Russians during the campaign or transition -- even with the looming Mueller report which could reveal even more, Republicans, especially in the Senate, are giving a collective shrug about all this. They are not saying they care very much.
Senator Orrin Hatch said so himself, telling CNN's Manu Raju "OK, I don't care. All I can say is he's doing a good job as president."
So those are the current senators. Forty-four formers senators, including 10 Republicans, are sounding the alarm in a "Washington Post" op-ed. They warn we are entering a dangerous period and urging current senators to put the country ahead of partisanship.
CAMEROTA: As if that's not enough, accused Russian spy Maria Butina is set to change her plea tomorrow. A source tells CNN she is now cooperating with federal prosecutors. They say that Butina cozied up to powerful figures in the U.S. to push Russian interests, even asking then-candidate Donald Trump a question.
