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New Day

Looking Ahead to Trump Presidency on Global, Legislative Fronts in 2019; Who Will Throw Hats in Ring for President? Aired 7- 7:30a ET

Aired January 01, 2019 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), INCOMING SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: We are celebrating a great victory for the Democratic Party.

[07:00:30] DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The voters clearly rebuked the Senate Democrats.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I hope that someone does run in the Republican primary to challenge the president.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I've made a decision not to rule anything out.

MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, FORMER MAYOR OF NEW YORK CITY: I have a lot of experience which would be useful.

TRUMP: In that caravan you have some very bad people.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's no imminent invasion. People want to seek asylum.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It is of rank political purpose to use our military like this.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The crisis is real, just on the other side of this wall.

SEN. KAMALA HARRIS (D), CALIFORNIA: We need leaders to unify instead of those who try and stoke fear.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I), VERMONT: We cannot have an ally who murders in cold blood.

MIKE POMPEO, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: There's no direct evidence linking him to the murder.

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R), SOUTH CAROLINA: You have to be willfully blind not to come to the conclusion that this was orchestrated under the command of MBS.

TRUMP: President Putin was extremely strong -- in his denial. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not only did Russia meddle in our elections;

they're doing it around the world.

MIKE PENCE (R), VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: President Trump will always put security of America first.

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ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Alisyn Camerota and John Berman.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Happy new year, everyone. Welcome to a very special New Year's edition of NEW DAY.

Happy new year, John.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Happy new year to you. I bring you "Partridge Family" music.

CAMEROTA: I really do think that it does sound a lot like "The Partridge Family." Maybe we'll play that later, because what says new year like "The Partridge Family"?

BERMAN: I'm David Cassidy.

CAMEROTA: Oh, my gosh. I'm --

BERMAN: Susan Dey.

CAMEROTA: Susan Dey. Yes, I am. Happy new year to everybody.

So this year is already shaping up to be quite interesting, of course, when it comes to politics. And it's only, as you say, seven hours old.

The Democrats are searching for their best candidate to take on President Trump next year. We're going to be talking about 2020. Oh, my gosh. We're going to take a look at some of the top 2020 contenders.

BERMAN: It's never too soon, in fact, it's late to be talking about that.

Speaking of the president, he has brokered amicable ties with some of our biggest foes in 2018, Russia and China, to name a few. Even Saudi Arabia in the wake of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Will he continue his lovefest this year with some of America's biggest enemies.

CAMEROTA: And the Golden Globes and Academy Awards will be here before we know it. So we're taking a look at who could win big in Hollywood. We have that and so much more ahead on this special edition of NEW DAY.

But first, let's get a check of your headlines at the news desk. (END VIDEOTAPE)

RYAN NOBLES, CNN CORRESPONDENT/ANCHOR: Good morning and happy new year. I'm Ryan Nobles.

A soggy start to 2019 in Times Square.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Three, two, one!

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Three, two, one!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Three, two, one!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NOBLES: This year's celebration in New York was dedicated to the freedom of the press. CNN's Alisyn Camerota joined the honored journalists on stage.

Seattle celebrated the first moments of 2019 with a fireworks display launched from the newly-renovated Space Needle.

Raleigh, North Carolina's, First Night celebration featured a giant acorn dropped at the stroke of midnight to mark the start of 2019.

First responders in Texas say dense fog may have played a role in a crash involving 20-plus vehicles near Austin overnight. According to a series of tweets by Austin, Travis County, EMS, a, quote, "level three mass casualty incident" sent a total of nine people to area hospitals. No reports of any serious injuries.

Nine people injured in Tokyo after a car-ramming attack. Eight victims were hit while celebrating the new year. The driver then got out of the car and attacked the ninth victim. The suspect, a 21-year- old man, has been arrested. Police tell CNN he initially confessed to a terrorist attack but later claimed he did it to retaliate against executions.

Police in the United Kingdom now confirm that they are treating a New Year's Eve stabbing attack at a train station in Manchester, England, as a terrorist investigation. A suspect is in custody. Authorities say he stabbed a woman and a man in their 50s and a British Transport officer at the Manchester Victoria Rail Station. None of the injuries are considered life-threatening.

Democrats have a strategy to reopen the federal government just hours after they assume control of the House on Thursday. They plan to vote on a package of six bipartisan Senate spending bills and a stopgap measure to reopen the Department of Homeland Security.

But it appears to be a nonstarter in the Republican-controlled Senate. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says he will not move forward on any legislation until President Trump is on board. The president continues to push for more money for his border wall with several tweets Monday, including this one, which read in part, "Without the wall, there can be no border security."

I'm Ryan Nobles. We'll have more headlines coming up in 30 minutes.

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CAMEROTA: Big changes coming to Washington in 2019. Democrats will take over the House, meaning that President Trump will have to deal with a split government for the first time in his presidency. Will he be able to advance his agenda with that?

Let's discuss with Nia-Malika Henderson, David Gregory and John Avlon.

So listen, the conventional wisdom, Nia, is that, oh, well, there was gridlock in Washington, but President Trump actually got a lot of things that he wanted to passed. The Supreme Court picks. He got the regulations that he had promised. I mean, rolling back the regulations. The environmental things that he changed. So he was able to do a lot of it. Yes --

BERMAN: That was all with a pen. That was my -- that's the universal sign for the stroke of a pen.

CAMEROTA: I knew what that was. I thought that was Chuck Lewis.

BERMAN: Also conducting the orchestra.

CAMEROTA: But I mean, I guess my point is that, for people who say it was gridlock, I think that he thinks that he got -- made a lot of progress, regardless of how he did it.

NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Certainly, and one of the things I think he's been arguing and will continue to argue is that he's accomplished more in the first two years of his presidency than any other president before him. You'll have to do a reality check on that.

CAMEROTA: On the -- you probably --

JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That's false.

HENDERSON: So, yes, I mean, certainly the people who back him are very happy with what he's done with the Supreme Court. In some ways, the tax cut plan. Certainly, corporations are happy with that. I don't know if you're the average worker, if you've necessarily seen that in your paycheck.

But, yes, in terms of what -- what Republicans have wanted, he has provided them with a lot of check marks off of their to-do list.

DAVID GREGORY, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: He has, but I think as you look into this new year, I think the most important relationship that has to do with the economy is what happens with China and working out this trade dispute and trade war with China. Both because what happens to China economically matters a great deal to us in the U.S. and our economy, because we're so linked. But this is a major area where the president witness to deliver, he

campaigned on, he promised. And you look at his relationship with the Fed. He's already worked over Fed Chairman Powell over raising rates, so we keep an eye on how rates go this year and how the economy goes. But these relationships are going to be critical.

BERMAN: And China is another area where there is actually Democratic support --

GREGORY: Yes.

BERMAN: -- for some of the things the president is doing, even if they don't say it vocally, even if they're not cheerleading. There are many --

GREGORY: Among Democrats who could challenge him in 2020, you know, in that industrial Midwest where they like the fight against China.

AVLON: And actually, the president deserves credit on China. I mean, something like North Korea, he's gotten all hot and heavy with his pen pal without actually seeing any progress on denuclearization.

But China, he's taken a very tough, hard line with some risks economically. Certainly, the trade war was a knock-on effect domestically and geopolitically.

But he's basically saying that this presidency is going to matter, that he's not going to let China get away with intellectual property theft the way it has with this kind of cyber hacking it has. And to try to sort of say this is the time to take a hard line to try to move China into being a more responsible actor on the world stage.

It's a tough line. It's high-risk, but he's had the guts to do it. And as you said, if he was simply focusing his fire on China and not attacking all our allies simultaneously, it might actually have a bigger bipartisan support than you might imagine.

HENDERSON: I think one of the things you wonder is did he overpromise in terms of what he said about renegotiating these trade deals? Obviously renegotiating NAFTA. It hasn't passed the House or the Senate yet. We'll see if that happens.

One of the things he promised was that renegotiating all those trade deals would mean all sorts of manufacturing, you know, coming back to the Midwest. All of those factories that closed down, he said they'd be humming. And that hasn't quite happened yet. You wonder. I mean, there's one thing to talk about sort of intellectual property, but if you're a manufacturing worker, I don't know that you necessarily are thinking about that.

AVLON: It's bigger than that. It's about China being an expansionist power that's promising wealth without liberty and trying to remake an entire region and possibly the whole world, and can the U.S. act as a check on that --

HENDERSON: Yes.

AVLON: -- while there's still time?

CAMEROTA: OK. So legislatively, things that he will not do unilaterally or can't, what do we think?

GREGORY: Well, to me the question mark is still around immigration. Because I think there's an obvious temptation for both parties not to solve it, to try to run on it in 2020.

The president, you know, had a big promise out there in 2016 to deliver. He wants to at least be seen fighting the good fight. And he's turned down wall funding in the past so that he could oppose what they call chain migration, allowing family members to come in.

I still think that's a big battleground. And there's no question that Republicans have wanted this off the table for -- for a decade or more. Democrats would like to be able to demonstrate they can show some progress. I just -- I just don't know.

BERMAN: There's going to be a lot of the House passing things that the Senate doesn't take up.

HENDERSON: That's right. That's right.

BERMAN: So, you know, you're going to have a lot of kabuki theater going on in Washington. And likewise, the Senate will be passing things that the House doesn't take up. And I don't know where interests overlap at all on a lot of this stuff except for infrastructure.

[07:10:13] AVLON: You know, Infrastructure Week, it's finally time. I'm not giving up on it.

CAMEROTA: Let's start with Infrastructure Hour, which I feel like this is.

AVLON: Just -- you know.

BERMAN: Can I ask one thing about Russia, since we've managed to have a seven-minute discussion without mentioning Russia once?

The House, Democrats take over control of the House. They can now have hearings. This can be very public if they want it to be. They've said they want to bring in Michael Cohen to ask questions. Do you believe that over the next few months, we will see hours and hours of televised public testimony from some of the biggest stars of the Russia investigation over the last year?

HENDERSON: Yes, I think that's what we're going to see. You mentioned Michael Cohen. He seems to be eager to want to talk publicly, obviously did -- did some interviews. And so, yes, I think that is what we're going to see.

I think it's going to be riveting to watch because, remember, we saw a House Republican -- Republicans basically cede ground and essentially say, "Oh, this isn't really something that we're interested in looking at." We sort of saw Devin Nunes, a figure who was basically running -- you know, running water for the White House. I think it's going to be a whole new ball game in terms of obstruction.

GREGORY: But along with that is the scrutiny on big tech. I mean, that's going to be a big story, too. It was a big story in 2018. And I think the screws keep tightening on tech companies and how they didn't do enough to ward off the Russian interference.

AVLON: And not just in that context, either. I mean, the real question is about the power they've accumulated, the amount of transparency and accountability that exists. And that may be a real theme.

I mean, you've seen Devin Nunes really blatantly, all of a sudden, say, "It's time for a new era of transparency." A little late there, pal.

But -- but these things really do matter. And now you're going to have a check and balance in the House. And it will be fascinating to see it play out, because you're not going to be able to sort of weasel out of accountability in the same way folks have tried to do for partisan purposes over the past year.

CAMEROTA: In terms of investigations, I think it will be really fascinating to see what the line is for Democrats. So how much do they want -- obviously, their base is chomping at the bit for this. They certainly want to see the tax returns as soon as possible. All of the people called in, Michael Cohen, that is great reality TV for lots and lots of the Democratic base. But, of course, we know that it comes with a danger.

HENDERSON: Of just is the public sick of the Russia investigation? Do they feel like the Democrats might be beating a dead horse at this time? We'll see what happens.

GREGORY: Well, it's also that you have these figures who are going to run for president --

HENDERSON: Yes.

GREGORY: -- who will have some voice in this, who will say, you know, to the House leadership, "Back it off." But they may feel a lot of pressure, too, in those early states among partisan activists to keep going.

AVLON: And remember, you know, there aren't super delegates this time around. I mean, you know, the question is how much some of the larger mandarins inside the Democratic Party are going to be able to put a -- pump the brakes when it comes to some of those impulses.

But remember: at the end of the day, the Russia investigation is about national security. It's about national priorities. It's not about partisan politics. So Mueller has been very careful about not playing that game. We'll see what the report is and judge it on its merits. But this is much bigger than partisan politics or winning a news cycle.

BERMAN: John, Nia, David, thank you all very much.

CAMEROTA: Thank you, guys.

BERMAN: Happy new year to you all.

AVLON: Happy new year.

BERMAN: We're going to start finding out which Democrats plan to challenge President Trump in 2020. A more interesting question might be which Democrats are not planning to challenge the president in 2020? Harry Enten and Chris Cillizza break down the contenders next.

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[07:17:30] BERMAN: I'm just getting word now, it's New Year's Day 2019.

CAMEROTA: Happy new year.

BERMAN: Happy new year. That means the 2020 presidential election --

CAMEROTA: Has started.

BERMAN: It really has started. I'm supposed to say it's about to start in a serious way. It's been going on for months.

CAMEROTA: I've noticed.

BERMAN: It's been going on for a long time. So many important twists and turns already.

What you're going to see over the next few weeks is people officially enter the race, cast their names into the ring. They want to be the ones to challenge President Trump next -- next November? It's like November --

CAMEROTA: I don't know.

BERMAN: I can't do the math.

CAMEROTA: I can't, either.

BERMAN: The actually November election is still in 2020. But people are starting right now.

CAMEROTA: We're a long way away from it, I know that much, but not long enough for people not to throw their hats in the ring.

BERMAN: All right. So who's going to win? Let's bring in CNN Politics reporter and editor at large, Chris Cillizza; and CNN Politics senior writer and analyst, Harry Enten.

Let's skip to the end of this segment.

CAMEROTA: Yes, you know the answer.

BERMAN: Who's going to win?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN POLITICS SENIOR WRITER AND ANALYST: Look, I think that we don't know who's going to win. I think that that was the lesson of 2016. But we do have a number of candidates we think are in a prime position to take advantage of what seems to be the developing trends of the Democratic Party.

For instance, Kamala Harris, I think, is in a pretty decent position. Beto O'Rourke obviously. You know, Chris and I have been talking about him for months now, saying look at how he did in that Texas Senate race.

Bernie Sanders, OK, maybe. You know, he came in second place in 2016. And Joe Biden, I think, is one of the other names that we're definitely watching in terms of, you know, can he take advantage of the fact that he enters this race in a polling lead with the highest favorable ratings? Or is it going to be the case that, because he's been out of politics for such a long time, that maybe he's, you know, not going to be able to rev up the engine.

CHRIS CILLIZZA, CNN POLITICS CORRESPONDENT AND EDITOR-AT-LARGE: Yes, the nightmare scenario for Biden -- let me say this. If you're a betting person and you have $20 that you really don't want to lose, the safest bet, I think Harry and I would agree, is probably Biden, in that he's ahead right now in any poll. He's the best known candidate. But safest is a relative term.

The nightmare scenario is this: that it winds up as a replay, in some ways, of the 2008 presidential Democratic primary, which is Biden playing the Hillary Clinton role of sort of established frontrunner, carrying all that baggage; and Beto O'Rourke playing the Obama role from 2008: exciting, young upstart, doesn't have that much of a record to attack on. A lot of organic energy behind his campaign.

So Biden has to -- has to contend with that as, frankly, do Bernie Sanders, do Elizabeth Warren, do any of those people above Beto O'Rourke. He is -- if you went to Iowa and polled the candidate that excites you the most, not necessarily the one you're going to vote for, but the one that excites you most, the one you want to learn more about, O'Rourke is almost certainly that guy. And don't underestimate that in politics. Organic energy and passion is the hardest thing to build.

[07:20:11] BERMAN: I will note, Joe Biden might be excited just not to play the Joe Biden role from past presidential elections.

CILLIZZA: That's true.

BERMAN: Because he's run twice and done basically zero.

CILLIZZA: Well, and President Trump, he says a lot of things that aren't true. He does say that, and it is true about Joe Biden.

BERMAN: Yes. CILLIZZA: Look, Joe Biden is the frontrunner today because he was the vice president of the United States for eight years. But let's remember, in '88 he drops out in '87, amid charges of plagiarism. In 2008, he never gets going in any meaningful way.

BERMAN: So we like to say the only poll that matters is the one on election day. The other one that matters is the one we just did in Iowa among Democrats in that state, along with "The Des Moines Register." And I just want to put that up on the screen here, because it gets to what you're talking about.

Joe Biden leads in the polling for the Democratic nominee among likely Democratic caucus goers. Joe Biden is at 32 percent. Bernie Sanders in second at 19; and then Beto O'Rourke is at 11 percent. And that to me, Harry, is the story of this poll, is that Beto, a guy who has never campaigned in Iowa, you know, is -- a few weeks off of losing for a race in Texas, is the only other guy in double digits.

ENTEN: Yes, I mean, you look at the name recognition numbers in that particular poll, and you see, you know, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, pretty much everybody knows who they are. But very few people -- or there are many people who don't know who Beto O'Rourke is. And so the fact that he's already broken into double digits, to me is just another example that he has a lot of energy in the Democratic base.

But of course, remember, he just ran in Texas. Let's see him actually get out on the national campaign trail and see if he can keep that momentum going. Let's see him get actually tested by other Democrats about his record because, for example, if you look at his record ,it's not exactly the most progressive among Democrats nationwide. And if he actually gets attacked from the left, then maybe he won't be able to hold up as well as we think he might.

CILLIZZA: And I think one of the things -- Harry and I have been -- we do rankings every month about 2020. We have Kamala Harris No. 1 right now and Beto No. 2.

One of the things that we both take a significant amount of criticism for is where we rank Bernie Sanders, which is outside of the top five, top six we usually have him. And I think one of the reasons Harry touched on with O'Rourke, which is that remember that Bernie Sanders didn't really get a significant negative attack from Hillary Clinton as it related to his very long voting record in Congress. She would sort of go here and there and then there would be these warnings: "You can't attack each other. How dare you attack him?" She laid kid gloves on him.

My guess is this time around, if his poll numbers stay roughly where they are, he's going to get a more thorough cleansing of that record. Now, maybe he withstands that. But anyone who has been in Congress, the House and now the Senate, for as long as he is, as we saw with John Kerry, as we saw with virtually every senator before Barack Obama and John Kennedy, running for president in the Senate isn't great, because you have a lot of "I voted for it before I voted against it" kind of votes that Bernie Sanders would be answerable to -- for, too. BERMAN: Cleansings can be uncomfortable.

CAMEROTA: Can they?

BERMAN: Take my word for it. A cleansing is sometimes --

CILLIZZA: Happy 2019.

BERMAN: Cleansing --

CAMEROTA: That's how he has been since New Year's Eve.

BERMAN: -- can be --

CILLIZZA: Wow. Yes.

CAMEROTA: Explain this graphic to me and why this is significant. This is the Iowa speaking list for Progress Iowa's holiday party speakers. Eric Swalwell -- here, we'll put it up here. Andrew Yang, Jeff Merkley, Mayor Pete --

ENTEN: Buttigieg.

CILLIZZA: Buttigieg.

CAMEROTA: -- Buttigieg. So what am I supposed to glean from this?

ENTEN: I mean, these are people who we think probably, they're running for president, or at least they've made some signals that they're running. Andrew Yang's people have certainly e-mailed me enough, so I know that he's definitely running.

CILLIZZA: Confirmed.

ENTEN: I don't -- yes, both of us.

CILLIZZA: Yes.

ENTEN: But I don't -- look, those people are running, but just because you're running doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to win. There are going to be so many --

CAMEROTA: Is that right?

ENTEN: I know, right?

CAMEROTA: I'm going to take that to the bank.

ENTEN: Maybe John, Alisyn, both of you can run. You can also run.

CILLIZZA: Here's the thing. There are 30-plus serious candidates, people who are in elected office who have been in elected office.

CAMEROTA: Yes.

CILLIZZA: There may wind up being -- I think this -- we both agree this will be the largest Democratic field in modern history.

One thing to remember: Harry said a lot of people running who won't win. Not all of them are running for president. I know that's the office they're filing for, but a lot of them like Pete Buttigieg, for example.

BERMAN: Yes.

CILLIZZA: He's mayor of South Bend. He announced in December he's not running for another term. He's an interesting guy, wants to be in the mix nationally. You know, could he wind up in a Democratic cabinet? Sure. Would that be a huge win for him? Absolutely. Is the best way to do it running for president and raising your profile? Also yes.

BERMAN: Very, very quickly, because the top three on the Iowa poll, the Iowa poll is Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke. We keep on saying, one of the lessons from 2018, especially in the Democratic Party, is women and minorities.

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: How big of a push will there be, do you think, in the primary to see the candidate be a woman or a minority?

ENTEN: I think there will be a big push from the base and, certainly, from special interest groups.

Another way to think about this, though, is if you look at the favorable to unfavorable ratio that you see because, remember, people like Kamala Harris don't have very high name recognition at this point.

But if you look only at the people who have been able to form an opinion of these candidates, you see her jump all the way up to No. 2. And you see Joe Biden still at No. 1. But it sort of looks a lot more like our rankings with Booker and O'Rourke up there.

[07:25:10] And I think that that, to me, is an indication that, once these candidates get better known -- Harris, Gillibrand, they will end up being able to come up in the polls more so than these current numbers indicate.

CILLIZZA: Which is why we have Kamala No. 1.

I mean, someone who is on this air often, not you, John, or you Alisyn, but someone whose initials are C.C. often sends me notes saying, "Oh, Kamala Harris, you and Harry have her No. 1, but she's nowhere to the polls, to which I remind him -- let's just call him C. Cuomo for now, preserve his anonymity. To which I remind him, the vote is not January 1, 2019. The vote first starts in the beginning of 2020. So we have some time here for this race --

CAMEROTA: I feel like he knows that.

CILLIZZA: -- to form. If you are ahead today, yes, you'd rather be ahead than be behind, but being ahead today is predictive of nothing or we would have had a President Giuliani, a President Jeb Bush, a President Hillary Clinton. We don't have any of those.

ENTEN: Good thing you clarified, though. I thought you were talking about Christopher Cross myself.

CILLIZZA: No.

BERMAN: "Sailing." "Sailing."

CILLIZZA (singing): Sailing --

BERMAN: When you get caught between the moon and New York City.

CILLIZZA (singing): -- take me away.

BERMAN: All right. Chris Cillizza, Harry Enten, thank you all.

CILLIZZA: We're going to sing more in 2019.

CAMEROTA: Thank you, guys.

BERMAN: Thank you all for being with us. Appreciate it.

CAMEROTA: OK. Yes, it's running off the rails.

BERMAN: Happy new year.

CAMEROTA: Happy new year. I said no drinking on this day, guys.

CILLIZZA: All right.

ENTEN: Sorry.

CAMEROTA: Meanwhile, President Trump angered supporters and critics alike in 2018 by getting close to dictators like Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin and criticizing allies. Let's face it: some people liked it; some people didn't. What can we expect this year on the global stage? Christiane Amanpour has that next.

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