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Polling on Kamala Harris; Volunteers Help in Florida; Academy Award Nominations. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired January 22, 2019 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:30:00] HARRY ENTEN, CNN POLITICS SENIOR WRITER AND ANALYST: This weekend. Essentially what we -- what I looked at here is say, OK, do you know who Kamala Harris is? And if you do know who she is, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable rating of her? Eighty-three percent of those who knew who Senator Harris was said that they had a favorable rating of her. That is tied for second place. OK, that is quite a high number, OK.

Let's also -- we can also look nationally. And we see pretty much the exact same thing. If you -- if you know who Harris is, do you have a favorable or unfavorable rating of her? Ninety-one percent said they had a favorable rating of Senator Harris. That is quite, quite high, right near the top of the field.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: In the sports business we call that a high upside. In other words, if she introduces herself in this way to the rest of the people who don't know her, it shows where -- how high she can grow.

ENTEN: That's exactly right. And, indeed, you know, if you look at Senator Harris and you're trying to build, you know, almost the perfect Democratic candidate, if you look at the trends in the Democratic Party, you'd want someone who's liberal. Her record in the Senate is quite liberal.

We know that women have been doing very well in the 2016 primaries and especially in the 2018 primaries. She's obviously a woman. African- Americans play a major role in Democratic primaries throughout the country. And we know, of course, that Kamala Harris is half African- American. So she basically has a lot of things and I think these early numbers that you see of people who know who she is are indicative of this strategic path.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: And so you're saying that that favorable number is higher than the people who have -- who are rating higher in the polls, such as Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren?

ENTEN: They're certainly higher than Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. They're right around where Joe Biden is. And so, you know, we have Biden at number three. We have her a little bit higher because we think that as the field and the campaigns develops, that she will get a real boost in her numbers.

BERMAN: Now, one of the interesting things -- and we don't know this for sure -- but you hear from the Harris people, the way she may approach the primary season is to compete in Iowa and New Hampshire, but South Carolina, which is the third state to hold voting -- actually I don't know where Nevada is. So South Carolina's early, but that South Carolina is where she wants to make the biggest impact. You think there could be a problem there?

ENTEN: I do think that there could be a problem there. So, you know, if we were to look, for instance, here. And what we can see is, in Iowa and New Hampshire, you know, we always say those are the big contests that we look forward to. And part of the reason that is, is because if we go back since 1972 and we say, OK, if there is no incumbent running in that particular primary, how do the candidates do in Iowa and New Hampshire? And we know that all 16 nominees who came out of those primaries did second or better in at least Iowa or New Hampshire. And in 14 of 16, they won Iowa or New Hampshire. You have to play in those states.

Remember John Glenn in 1984. I wasn't alive for that, but, you know, I read about these things. Or remember Rudy Giuliani, I'm going to go to Florida to make a big stink there and, you know, blah, blah, blah, forget Iowa and New Hampshire. It just has not worked in the past.

That's not to say you can't go to South Carolina and play, you know, put yourself in a position to win there. You obviously want to plan ahead. But you have to at least show up and do partially decent in Iowa and New Hampshire if you want to win the nomination.

CAMEROTA: All right. So what are your other --

ENTEN: Well, I would just --

CAMEROTA: Showing us in early states.

ENTEN: Right. So if you were, for instance, to look right here, this is a very interesting sort of hypothesis that a lot of us have, which is that activists tend to drive nomination processes, OK. The idea being that pretty much all the candidates look very similar ideologically and so you have to have cues on who you're going to go for.

So Seth Masket, who's a political scientist, essentially interviews Democratic activists in the early states and he said, OK, who would you consider supporting even if you're undecided at this point. And what we see is Harris at Iowa is number one, Harris in New Hampshire at two, Nevada, three, and South Carolina -- I'm sorry, two in Nevada and first in South Carolina. That is by far the strongest position among the activists. So as she becomes better known and as people tune into the race, what I would expect to happen is that the voters in these states will follow the activists' lead and Harris is obviously in a strong position among the activists in these different states.

BERMAN: All right, how much time do we have left? All right, we have time to go to Trump's poll numbers and football?

ENTEN: We have -- I think we have time to go to Trump's poll numbers and football. Why not? OK. So, of course, if, at the end of the day, we're only interested -- we're interested in who the Democratic nominee is, not for the sake of who the Democratic nominee is because we think they could be the next president. And one of the reasons we think they could be the next president is because Donald Trump is polling in such poor shape. Pew Research asked over the week -- last week, do you view that President Trump's -- do you think it will ultimately be successful or unsuccessful? And what's so interesting here is only 29 percent say successful, 47 percent say unsuccessful, and 23 percent say too early to tell.

Why that's so interesting, because this isn't just you prove or disapprove of him now. This is asking, do you think he's going to actually have a shot to be successful in the future. Very -- a very low percentage think that. This is a record number -- record percentage for unsuccessful. Not just at this point in the presidency, but even George W. Bush, late in his presidency, thought Americans -- a lower percentage thought he would be unsuccessful at this point.

CAMEROTA: As you know, Harry, I take sports very seriously.

BERMAN: Very.

CAMEROTA: Very seriously. And if I haven't up until now, I'm starting right now to take sports very seriously.

BERMAN: We got a viewer complaint.

CAMEROTA: So who's playing -- who's playing in the Super Bowl?

ENTEN: Who is playing in the Super Bowl. Well, the New England Patriots, who were actually founded in 1960 as the Boston Patriots, are playing the L.A. Rams. They first played in Cleveland, then played in Los Angeles, then plaid in St. Louis, then are back in Los Angeles.

[08:35:05] CAMEROTA: Too much information. Go on.

ENTEN: A lot of information there.

New England is favored by one. And this is one of the things that perturbs me more than anything else. Look, John is from New England. He loves his Patriots.

CAMEROTA: I know that.

ENTEN: Tom Brady said, oh, no one liked us this entire year. Oh, we're -- you know, everyone was putting us down. Oh, my God. Tom Brady needs to shhh for a second here. New England is favored in the Super Bowl. And not only that, they were the preseason number one in the ILO (ph) rankings, which is from FiveThirtyEight. And never ranked lower than five. They are favorites pretty much through this entire season. The idea that they're an underdog is the most ridiculous thing since someone actually allowed me on television.

BERMAN: All right. Harry --

CAMEROTA: Let that sink in.

BERMAN: I don't know what just happened.

CAMEROTA: Right.

BERMAN: I have no idea what just happened there.

ENTEN: You just got boomed.

BERMAN: All right, Harry Enten, I really appreciate it. Thank you for being with us this morning.

ENTEN: Thank you.

BERMAN: We'll you your meds.

CAMEROTA: Be sure to watch the first major television event of the 2020 race. It's a live CNN town hall with Senator Kamala Harris, hosted by Jake Tapper. That is next Monday at 10:00 p.m. only on CNN.

BERMAN: All right, President Trump nominated for an award. His competition, John Travolta, Johnny Depp and Will Ferrell.

CAMEROTA: What?

BERMAN: But why the president probably doesn't want to win that, next.

CAMEROTA: But first, this Sunday at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on CNN, be sure to watch a remarkable true story about triplets who were separated at birth. Here's a look at "Three Identical Strangers."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When I tell people my story, they don't believe it. But it's true.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I've always thought, what would it be like if you turned the corner one day and you saw yourself.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh my, God.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Wow.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The first time that the boys met the three together, it was a miracle.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There was nothing that could keep us apart.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That's when things kind of got funky.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Something was just not right.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'd like to know the truth.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It was always a question mark.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The parents had never been told.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They're trying to conceal what they did from the people they did it to.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's still so much that we don't know.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: How could you not tell us?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: "Three Identical Strangers," Sunday at 9:00 Eastern on CNN.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:41:20] CAMEROTA: A teenager believed to be in the United States illegally has been taken into custody in connection with a string of four murders in Reno, Nevada. Officials with the local sheriff's office say they believe this suspect gunned down his victims inside their homes. No motive has been released. President Trump took to Twitter to use the deaths as part of his rationale for his proposed border wall.

BERMAN: All right, we do have breaking news. Hip-hop star Chris Brown detained in Paris, accused of aggravated rape and a narcotics violation. A source tells CNN both Brown and two individuals have been arrested and are still being held. Brown has been in repeated legal trouble since pleading guilty to felony assault in 2009 of his then girlfriend Rihanna.

CAMEROTA: Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is trying to drum up attention for climate change. Speaking at a Martin Luther King Day event on Monday, the New York Democrat had a stark warning.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D), NEW YORK: Millennials and people -- and, you know, gen-z and all these folks that come after us are looking up and we're like, the world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change and your biggest issue is -- your -- your biggest issue is, how are we going to pay for it? And, like, this is the war. This is our World War II.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: At the same event, she also said she feels it is, quote, immoral that billionaires exist. She later clarified that she thinks it is wrong that a person can work a hundred hours and still not be able to feed their kids.

BERMAN: All right, the Oscar nominations, they were announced just moments ago. The Razzie's, honoring Hollywood's worst, they are already out. President Trump and the first lady were nominated for Razzie awards for their appearance in the political documentaries "Death of a Nation" and "Fahrenheit 11/9." The president, for worst actor, and Melania Trump for worst supporting actress. The president is facing some big name competition. The other nominees are John Travolta, Johnny Depp, Will Ferrell and Bruce Willis.

CAMEROTA: All right, now to the real awards, John. The Oscar nominations have just been announced. So who will be going for the gold? We have all of the announcements hot off the press for you next.

But first, three months after Hurricane Michael hit Florida, many residents still struggling to clear debris so the actual rebuilding can begin. Volunteers are still there making a difference as we see in this "Impact Your World."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL BLAIR, TEAM RUBICON VOLUNTEER: There was so much water and so much force it picked the gun safe up, went through the wall. It's pretty crazy.

Hi, I'm Bill Blair. I'm from Oregon. I'm a volunteer member from Team Rubicon.

Team Rubicon is a disaster recovery organization. We are veterans- based. We are 70 percent veterans, 30 percent civilians.

I'm here in Florida doing disaster recovery from Hurricane Michael.

The recovery process is just beginning. It's going to take another six months to clear the debris piles that are strewn up and down the highways.

This is the largest operation here in Florida that Team Rubicon has ever done.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There are 1,300 work requests that we have received. Unfortunately, there are 9,500 that we have not been able to get to yet.

BLAIR: The recovery process for the disasters in 2018 are going to be ongoing through 2019, 2020. It's not going to end, period. We need you. I'll start crying here in a minute.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You all were angels in our lives.

BLAIR: Thank you.

What's rewarding to me is just for the thanks of being able to know that we have helped that person on the worst day of their life.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:49:04] CAMEROTA: All right, we do have some breaking entertainment news. The nominations for the 91st Academy Awards have just been announced. So let's bring in Brian Stelter, who is still checking his phone as we speak --

BRIAN STELTER, CNN CHIEF MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: Checking the facts. CAMEROTA: And media correspondent Nischelle Turner, "Entertainment Tonight" host.

NISCHELLE TURNER, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Hi.

CAMEROTA: OK. Hi. Great to see you. How exciting.

OK, so let's talk about what has just broken. Here are the best picture nominees, "Green Book," "Roma,' "A Star is Born," "Vice," "Bohemian Rhapsody," "The Favorite," "Black Panther," "BlacKkKlansman."

Nischelle, any surprises here?

TURNER: Not so much surprises, but there was some firsts in this category and I think a lot of people will be happy this morning. "Roma," number one, the first movie that -- for Netflix to ever be nominated for best picture, and deservedly so. And also, you know, everyone was asking, will "Black Panther" get a nomination. And, of course, we did see it. There was, you know, a big hubbub before the awards season started was the Academy was trying to put this popular movie category in and folks kind of pushed back on that and thought, well, are they trying to make it easy to sneak a film like "Black Panther," that's a tent pole, a big budget film in. They took that out. They scrapped the idea. But "Black Panther" still got in on the merits because it is one of the best movies of the year.

[08:50:20] BERMAN: I will say "Black Panther" and "BlacKkKlansman" both came out so early. I remember them from the Reagan administration. And it was like years ago that we saw them in the theaters.

TURNER: Sorry.

BERMAN: And I will say of "Bohemian Rhapsody," you know how I feel about "Bohemian Rhapsody." You know --

TURNER: I know.

BERMAN: You have to be good before you're best, but we'll leave that there.

TURNER: Suck it up, Berman.

BERMAN: Best actress. Let's put the -- the nominees up for best actress here. That first -- I can't say her name.

CAMEROTA: Yalitza Aparicio.

BERMAN: OK.

TURNER: Yes.

BERMAN: Lady Gaga, Glenn Close, Melissa McCarthy and Olivia Colman.

Brian Stelter, what do you see? STELTER: And again here, a really important moment for Netflix with these -- all these nominations for "Roma." I think that's a very significant milestone in the Hollywood world because Netflix has been taking over the town and now it's getting finally some Oscars due -- some Oscars attention.

But, look, I think Lady Gaga in "A Star is Born" -- "A Star is Born" in general is going to dominate a lot of these conversations. Between "Green Book" and "A Star is Born," they are viewed as two of the highest contenders in a number of these categories.

For example, Bradley Cooper, he's been snubbed in best director for "A Star is Born," but he's up in best actor for "A Star is Born." Lady Gaga for best actress. "Shallow" for best songs. A number of really significant nominations for "A Star is Born."

And I mentioned "Green Book." It's not in the best actress category, but "Green Book's" the other film with a lot of momentum in a number of these categories and with a lot of wins in other earlier award shows. You know, the Globes, the PGAs. Those are sometimes viewed as previews of what's going to happen with the Oscars and now we have the actual Oscar nominations.

CAMEROTA: All right, let's look at that --

TURNER: You know, I have to -- I have to disagree a little bit with Brian there in the actress category. I know he talked about Lady Gaga, and she is one of the frontrunners. But Glenn Close has stolen the momentum this awards season for best actress. She won early on at the Golden Globes, beating out Lady Gaga. They tied at the Critics Choice Awards. We'll see what happens at the S.A.G. Awards this weekend. But Glenn Close has the momentum now and it would not surprise me if she won best actress for her portrayal in "The Wife," which was spectacular.

CAMEROTA: All right, let's look at best actor, who has just been nominated. We have Christian Bale, Bradley Cooper, Willem Dafoe, Rami Malek and Viggo Mortensen.

Brian, any thoughts on the frontrunner?

STELTER: Christian -- I, you know, I'm not going to go trying to predict a frontrunner, but I do think Christian Bale in "Vice," as we're talking about, his portrayal of Dick Cheney, the film in general has been very controversial. It's been up -- getting a lot of debates going about how it portrays the Bush/Cheney years. But the way Christian Bale becomes Dick Cheney is something you have to see to believe. And, to me, it's the kind of thing that makes the movies special. That's why you go to the movies because you want to see something blow you away like that.

BERMAN: Bradley Cooper on this list, Nichelle, on this list --

TURNER: Yes.

BERMAN: But as we'll get to in a few minutes, not the best director list. Does he have a shot here?

TURNER: Well, you know, I think it's a three-way race. Maybe it -- I would have said three way coming into today. But maybe two and a half. I agree with Brian, Christian Bale is one of the favorites. Rami Malek is up there as well. He's been winning awards all season for this.

But Bradley Cooper is in this conversation. I will say the Academy likes a transformation. We see that in Rami Malek. We see that in Christian Bale. And in some ways with Bradley Cooper. I think his performance was so stellar because he sang. He wrote, you know, the film. He picked the actors. He directed it. So I look at him kind of as like the VIP or the MVP, excuse me, award for this one. But I think it may come down to Christian and Rami.

CAMEROTA: I mean I thought Bradley Cooper's acting beyond all of that other man of many hats was really special I thought in "A Star is Born."

Here's the best director category. So the films are "BlacKkKlansman," "Cold War," "The Favorite," "Vice," "Roma," and the directors of those movies. So this is where you're saying that Bradly Cooper got snubbed (ph).

BERMAN: You just copped out because you didn't want to pronounce them.

CAMEROTA: A little bit.

STELTER: Yes, there's a couple tricky names. That's OK. I do think Spike Lee in "BlacKkKlansman" deserves a lot of attention in this category. As said (ph) John, came out earlier in the year. It's worth re-watching. It's worth revisiting.

BERMAN: It's so good. It is so good.

STELTER: The film is amazing and terrifying and Spike Lee pulled it off.

TURNER: And this is his first ever nomination as a director, which is -- which blows your mind. Think about the films that he's done. This is the first time he's ever been nominated in the directing category. He's been nominated for writing. He's been nominated for documentary. But he's never been nominated as a director until now.

BERMAN: And do you think that will be enough to put him over the top or because the Academy likes to vote for, you know, Cuaron, these arty films. We've seen it before.

TURNER: They love Alfonso Cuaron. I mean he's had the momentum all awards season. I think that he will probably keep that momentum going into the Oscars. But I agree with you all, "BlacKkKlansman" was such a fantastic film. I encourage people to go back and watch it. They put out this marketing campaign again for it and they're marketing it in a different way because it's a comedy, but they're marketing it in a very serious, dramatic way right now. So it's really interesting to see what's going to happen.

[08:55:10] BERMAN: All right, lightning round. Lightning round on supporting actor and supporting actress here.

TURNER: OK. Let's go.

BERMAN: Which one are we doing first?

CAMEROTA: Actress.

BERMAN: All right, supporting actress --

TURNER: Regina King.

BERMAN: Amy Adams, Emma Stone --

STELTER: That was easy.

BERMAN: Marina de Tavira, Rachel Weisz and Regina King. Nischelle says Regina King.

Let's put up supporting actor --

TURNER: Although Amy Adams was fantastic.

BERMAN: Supporting actor, Mahershala Ali, Adam Driver, Sam Elliott, Richard Grant, Sam Rockwell. Your winner there, Brian?

STELTER: Ali all the way.

TURNER: Yes. Oh, I like that. I like that. Ali. Ali. Ali.

STELTER: Am I right -- wait, am I right, Nischelle? Right, but am I right? OK, all right, good.

TURNER: I think so.

BERMAN: All right, this -- we want to get to this, though. We want to get to this.

CAMEROTA: This is a very important one for us because here's the documentary films.

TURNER: Yes, it is.

CAMEROTA: And for the first time a CNN film has been listed, and that's "RBG." So she is up against "Free Solo," "Hale County This Morning, This Evening," Minding the Gap," "Of Fathers and Sons" and then "RBG."

Brian?

STELTER: And, as you said, it is an historic moment. CNN Films, the brand has been around for a number of years. This is the first time a CNN Film has been nominated for an Oscar. So a huge moment for our network. And, in general, what we are seeing is a race between, I think, "RBG" and "Free Solo," two very different kinds of films.

TURNER: Absolutely. Absolutely. STELTER: One from Nat Geo, one from CNN. But, obviously, I'm going to have to pick "RBG."

BERMAN: All right.

CAMEROTA: And it's also been nominated for song, "RBG."

STELTER: Yes. Yes, that's right.

BERMAN: Which you sang. So congratulations for that.

CAMEROTA: (INAUDIBLE).

BERMAN: Brian Stelter and Nischelle Turner, thanks so much for being with us.

TURNER: Thank you, guys.

CAMEROTA: Thank you, guys.

All right, the Senate is expected to take up President Trump's proposal to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. CNN has it all covered for you, next.

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