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Economists Fear Of A 2020 Recession In U.S.; U.S. And Mexico Meet After Trump Threatens Tariffs Over Migrants; Obama Gets "MVP" Chants And Standing Ovation In Toronto; Trump And First Lady Arrive At State Banquet Hosted By Queen Elizabeth; Trump Tweeted About London's Mayor, Called Meghan Markle "Nasty" Ahead Of U.K. State Visit. Aired 2:30-3p ET

Aired June 3, 2019 - 14:30   ET



[14:30:22] BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Now to 2020, and not the race for president but the recession many economists fear is going to hit that year. That's according to responses from 53 economists in a report released today by the National Association for Business Economics. It's considered a leading barometer on where the business world thinks the U.S. economy is headed.

That report found what it called a surge in recession fears among the economists. And they also said the risk of recession is 60 percent by the end of 2020. The prime reason for the predicted downturn? Protectionist trade policy.

Speaking of tariffs, a high-level delegation from Mexico is going full-court press today, holding a news conference in hopes of stopping President Trump from hitting Mexico with tariffs, as he has threatened to do.

The president says he will impose a 5 percent tariff starting June 10th with increases monthly up to 25 percent unless Mexico does more to stop illegal immigration.

Mexican officials believe there's a chance the tariffs won't happen. But the president's acting chief of staff says he, quote, unquote, "fully expects the Mexico tariff to hit on June 10th," saying the president is, quote, "absolutely deadly serious."

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is also set to meet with the Mexican secretary of economy.

And just in, President Trump just tweeted that, "Mexico should immediately stop the flow of people and drugs as a sign of good faith."

And Tom Maoli owns Celebrity Motor Cars Company in New Jersey. He is a friend of President Trump's, serving on his finance committee during the campaign and on the transition team.

Tom, a pleasure. Thanks for coming to CNN.


BALDWIN: You're buddies with President Trump.


BALDWIN: You're in contact with him often.


BALDWIN: We have talked a lot since the news broke on Friday about how important Mexico is for the U.S. auto industry.

MAOLI: It is so important --


BALDWIN: You're a car guy. How much is this going to affect you?

MAOLI: It's going to -- it's going to affect me, but it's going to affect the consumers. The consumers are ultimately the ones that will pay the price for this.

And it's interesting, because you're talking about 70 percent of the wiring harnesses produced for an automobile are produced in Mexico. We're talking about shutting down assembly lines and putting people out of work.

The interesting part is it's going to drive the price of a U.S. car of a domestic car up --


BALDWIN: Thirteen-hundred bucks.

MAOLI: Yes, 1300 bucks, up to $3,000. When the reality is he's actually going to drive people to buy foreign cars because it's going to be less costly. Their products are not produced in Mexico.

BALDWIN: If I'm hearing you correctly, your friend, the president, is making a mistake?

MAOLI: No, I don't think he's making a mistake. I think this is a negotiating tactic. I think he's done -- he's done his job. He's getting them to the table. Listen --

BALDWIN: I read the quote, that the White House is saying he is deadly serious on this.

MAOLI: He is.

BALDWIN: Do you think they're just bluffing?

MAOLI: No. He's deadly serious. But he already has them to the table. I think he can implement 5 percent to put pressure on them to get them to shut down the borders. But I think, when it goes further, he'll start damaging the economy. I think he's very smart. He's not going to damage the economy. He

knows what he's doing. It's a balance. He's already done his job. He's got them to the table.

And, listen, national security is number one. I have two daughters. I will bet my business over -- I'll take security over my business.

BALDWIN: What does the tariffs have to do with immigration?

MAOLI: Well, one has nothing to do with the other but he needs a lever.

BALDWIN: He's trying to tie the two together?

MAOLI: Yes. He's trying to tie the two together because he needs a lever. When you drive down the highway and you go 100 miles per hour, you're going to get a ticket for a reason. There's a reason. There's a financial penalty. He's imposing a financial penalty to get them to do something.

He already has them to the table. I think he's going to succeed.

BALDWIN: You see it as a threat?

MAOLI: I see it as a threat. I think he'll implement, if he has to implement it. But I think he'll get them to the table.

They're going to react. There's no way they'll want to lose this kind of business. We have too much power over the country.

BALDWIN: You told me during the commercial break you're in touch with the president. Have you talked to him?

MAOLI: I have --

BALDWIN: Have you tried talking him out of this?

MAOLI: I have not discussed the tariff issue with him at all.

BALDWIN: Are you using television as a way to communicate with the president?

MAOLI: No. I'm sure he's watching. I was on several news stations the other day, having the same conversation. I'm sure he's watching. He knows I'm behind him. He knows I believe in what he's doing.

And I think national security is number one. I think he has the right direction. Although the tariffs could be -- he's walking a tight rope. It's very dangerous to our economy.

You know, 30 percent of all car parts are produced in Mexico. You shut that down, you're talking about assembly lines and employment shutdown, car dealerships, transportation. It's major.

BALDWIN: Yes. And you can't just go somewhere else for the car parts. We've had that conversation. MAOLI: Right.

BALDWIN: It's incredibly complicated.

[14:35:00] MAOLI: And when people aren't buying cars, they're fixing them. But you need parts to fix cars. They have to come from somewhere.

BALDWIN: Tom Maoli, thank you very much for going in.

MAOLI: Thank you.

BALDWIN: Appreciate it.

MAOLI: Thank you.

BALDWIN: Despite some of the NBA's biggest stars, like Steph Curry and Kauai Leonard, the chance of MVP in Toronto was reserved for this man, former President Barack Obama. More on the presidential welcome ahead.

And speaking of President Trump, live pictures from London, Buckingham Palace there, where President Trump is expected any moment to arrive for this incredibly opulent state banquet with the royal family at the palace. We'll take you live. It's 7:35 live London time on this Monday.

We'll be right back.


[14:40:27] BALDWIN: A big welcome for an American president from our neighbors to the north. Former President Obama attended game two of the NBA finals in Toronto. He even gave a handshake and hug to Canadian wrapper, Drake, prior to tipoff. But when he sat courtside for the game with the NBA commissioner and other celebrities, the Toronto crowd made it clear former President Barack Obama is a fan favorite.


ANNOUNCER: Let's give a big Toronto welcome to the 44th president of the United States. It's Mr. Barack Obama.




BALDWIN: CNN Politics Reporter And Editor-At-Large, Chris Cillizza, is with me now.

Now, that's a welcome.

CHRIS CILLIZZA, CNN POLITICS REPORTER & CNN EDITOR-AT-LARGE: Yes. Look, Brooke, I was just watching that. I watched it live. And then re-watching it, it reminds me I need an announcer to announce me at everything.

BALDWIN: Ladies and gentlemen --

CILLIZZA: Because I feel like it really gets the crowd going.

BALDWIN: -- it's Chris Cillizza.

CILLIZZA: People get into it.

Look, OK, a couple things. One, we should not be surprised that a Canadian crowd likes Barack Obama, particularly in light of the current president of the United States. Barack Obama always much more popular than Donald Trump is.

First, in polling in the United States, I would say. Remember, Donald Trump has never gotten a 50 percent approval rating in his presidency. Barack Obama was over that for a large chunk of his presidency and finished on an upswing.

Number two, Donald Trump would look at this -- and I'm surprised hasn't tweeted about it, maybe he will -- look at this and say, good, candidates cheering Barack Obama because Barack Obama gave Canada everything they ever wanted. I'm being tough. I'm looking out for America.

We should not be surprised by any of this. But it does speak to I think, what I was struck by, how political everything is. When I was growing up, I remember Michael Jordan saying Republicans buy my sneakers too, not wanting to take a political stance. Now you have Lebron James, Steph Curry, prominent players in basketball and other places, kneeling during the national anthem, politics is infused in everything.

Some of that was happening during Obama's presidency but Donald Trump has super-charged that conversation even more so.

BALDWIN: People are engaged. We had a look at a glass half full.

CILLIZZA: That's right.

BALDWIN: People are paying attention.

Chris Cillizza -- Chris Cillizza -- thank you very much.

CILLIZZA: Thank you.

BALDWIN: Mister. Bye-bye.

Stay with me. We are moments away from the arrival of President Trump and first lady, Melania Trump, to the state banquet over at Buckingham Palace in London. We'll take you there live.

We'll be right back.


[14:47:43] BALDWIN: All right. Well, we had eyes on the bird. Marine One took off from Winfield House where the president and first lady have been staying for the massive state visit in London. They've been making their way to Buckingham Palace.

Of course, the flag all the way up means the queen is in residence, waiting to see the president and his entire family.

The dinner has been in the planning for six months. The queen, we're told, has been personally inspecting every last detail, from flower arrangements to how the tablecloths are folded.

Around 170 people are invited. All dressed to the nines, of course. We'll see white ties, tiaras, gowns.

It begins with a toast by the queen and President Trump is expected to say a few words as well.

Guests will know when the dinner is over. Twelve pipers will walk around the room playing their various instruments.

CNN White House Reporter, Kate Bennett, is live at Buckingham Palace. And our CNN Chief International Correspondent, Clarissa Ward, is at Winfield House, as I mentioned, the residence of the U.S. ambassador to the U.K. where the president and first lady are staying.

Ladies, let's get all into this.

Kate, first to you.

The royal family just posted a picture from inside the banquet hall. We're looking at it. You tell me who will be at the state dinner tonight and, equally important, who will not.

KATE BENNETT, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Well, actually, we've been watching all the cars pull up in front of Buckingham Palace for about the past half hour. Obviously, we just saw Marine One land so the guests of honor are here.

I mean, it's going to be everybody from dignitaries and VIPs and members of the royal family and, of course, the adult children of Donald Trump. Eric Trump tweeted a picture of himself and his wife, Laura Trump. Laura is pregnant with their second child. We'll also see Don Jr and we'll see Tiffany.

We're not going to see all the royal family, though. We're not going to see the Duchess of Sussex. She is not attending the dinner. She will be home at Frogmore Cottage in Windsor with the new baby, Archie. So obviously, she's a new mom. That's expected.

But there's also the tension there with the president and his comments that might have made for an awkward dinner party.

BALDWIN: And so given the tension, Clarissa, -- and here we are, Marine One, waiting for it to land so we'll keep our eyes on the picture there.

[14:50:06] But, Clarissa, is it -- we know the queen would never dare let on how she may feel about the president's comments about her grand-daughter-in-law. Would she act oafish at all?

CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: There's absolutely no way she would act oafish, Brooke. She will be unflappable. She will be stoic. She sees her duty as serving her country in a strictly apolitical function.

And that's the secret of the longevity of the monarchy and, particularly, of the queen herself, and the love that many in the United Kingdom continue to have for her. It's because she's being seen as being somewhat selfless in that sense, of being able to put the needs and wants of the country ahead of whatever her own personal feelings might be.

She is utterly inscrutable and enigmatic and very charming. And I'm sure the evening will proceed much as she wants it to proceed in a sort of uniform and pleasant fashion -- Brooke?

BALDWIN: And, Kate, over to you, on the precision. I was talking to Victoria Arbiter earlier, who had lived at Kensington, and given what her father, as press secretary for the queen, was talking about, how they measure, like from the chairs to the tables with a tape measurer. I mean, the precision is like nothing we have ever seen. Can you just take us inside the room?

BENNETT: I mean, it really is true. And I think that's why this is such a big deal. This is something that the queen did for George W. Bush and Laura Bush. It's something she did for Barack and Michelle Obama. This is a rare occasion to have a state banquet.

And quite frankly, I think it's what makes most first ladies and probably most presidents a little bit nervous about meeting the queen.

There's a long-standing tradition here of these sorts of events. And everything must be detailed. There are hundreds of staff, hundreds of people serving the dinner tonight and taking care of the guests.

This is -- we think our state dinners are a big deal at the White House. And they are. But this is a much more traditional affair. This is a white tie event.

Even tomorrow's event that the Trumps are hosting, in reciprocation for tonight's dinner, is black tie. So it's a different level of formal here tonight. You'll see all the women in opera-length white gloves tonight. As we said, we might see some tiaras, some gowns.

We'll have to wait to see what Melania Trump is going to wear. She is a first lady who often says more with her clothes than what she does verbally. We have to look at those clues and sort see what she's saying.

Today's outfit, earlier, with the white dress and the hat, some people were saying it was a nod to Princess Diane, the late princess, and how she liked to wear fitted white dresses, Navy and white, and similar- styled hats. So lots of interpretation there.

But tonight will be a very special event and something I'm sure the president and first lady and his adult children will remember for quite some time.

BALDWIN: Ladies, do me favor and stand by.

We'll get a quick commercial break in as we wait to see the president of the United States and the first lady. They have just reached Buckingham Palace in Marine One ahead of this lavish occasion that is the state banquet there at Buckingham Palace.

A quick break. You're watching CNN. We'll be right back.


[14:57:48] BALDWIN: Welcome back. I'm Brooke Baldwin. You are watching CNN.

Live pictures of Buckingham Palace. President Trump and the first lady just arrived for the lavish state banquet hosted by the queen. We are waiting to get our first view of them. We know that Marine One has just landed there.

This is perhaps the biggest event of what can only be called an unusual stayed visit. Unusual in terms of the U.S. president, that is, because before he set foot in the United Kingdom, President Trump had insulted the London mayor, along with the American member of the royal family, Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex.

But despite that, the royals stayed above the fray, as they do. They put on a spectacular show filled with pageantry and tradition.




BALDWIN: After the Honor Guard there, it was on to Westminster Abbey where the president laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Warrior before joining Prince Charles and his wife for tea.

All of it leading up to tonight's big banquet with additional members of the royal family and hundreds of other guests.

So Kate and Clarissa are with us. Also joining us, our CNN Royal Correspondent, Max Foster. He's there live at Buckingham Palace as well.

Max, let me begin with you.

We know the president is expected to make a toast tonight. This is, of course, after -- as we mentioned, landing, taking aim at Mayor Khan, Meghan Markle, while expressing support for his friends, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Take us in the room. And will it be awkward at all?

MAX FOSTER, CNN ROYAL CORRESPONDENT: I think it will be awkward. Because what we have seen today is quite interesting, what Donald Trump has actually done here. There are royal protocols, there are political protocols. He's blown the political protocols out of the window.

But he's very much respecting the royal protocols. This is the ultimate royal moment. It's the standout moment this whole tour. It's a state banquet. Hugely lavish. An extraordinary moment, really, in British celebration and British pomp and pageantry. So he's going to step up to that.