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Trump To Join World Leaders For D-Day Commemoration; Thousands Protested Trump Visit In Central London; President Promises Phenomenal U.K.-U.S. Trade Deal; Republican Senators Oppose Mexico Tariffs; Mexico Tariffs Expected To Take Effect Monday; Trump's Threatened Tariffs on Mexico Hit U.S. Importers. Aired 1-2a ET
Aired June 5, 2019 - 01:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[01:00:00] JOHN VAUSE, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: The curious world of Donald Trump where these protests never happened, these protesters never existed, but their place -- but they were in their place, rather, thousands of flag-waving supporters who no one ever saw.
Republicans revolt after more than two years of rolling over -- rolling over on almost every issue. Republican lawmakers may be willing to stand up to President Trump and block his plan to impose tariffs on Mexico.
And the disgraced Cardinal George Pell in court this hour in Melbourne, Australia. His lawyers arguing the convicted child sex abuser did not get a free trial. Hello, welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world. Good to have you with us for another hour. I'm John Vause, you're watching CNN NEWSROOM.
A few hours from now, the U.S. President will join other world leaders on the coast of Southern England to mark the 75th anniversary of D- Day. It will be another reminder of Western unity which has been emphasized repeatedly during his state visit to the U.K.
On Tuesday, the President promised a phenomenal post-Brexit trade deal, but his remarks throughout Britain's National Health Service, being on the table in trade talks was met with immediate outrage. Hours later, the President walked back those comments.
Trump also said Brexit will happen and had only praise for the Prime Minister and the way she negotiated this exit from the E.U. -- still not a done deal. A significant reversal though of previous criticism.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I would think that it will happen and it probably should happen. This is a great, great country and it wants its own identity. It wants to have its own borders. It wants to run its own affairs. This is a very, very special place and I think it deserves a special place. And I thought maybe for that reason and for others, but that reason it was going to happen. Yes, I think it will happen and I believe the Prime Minister has
brought it to a very good point where something will take place in the not-too-distant future.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: We're joined live now by Phil Black in Portsmouth and CNN's European Affairs Commentator Dominic Thomas who is live for us in Los Angeles. But Phil, first to you. Over the past few days, there's been these constant you know, times subtle reminders you know, directed at the President about the sense of the U.K.-U.S. alliance. Listen to Theresa May welcoming Donald Trump on Tuesday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
THERESA MAY, PRIME MINISTER, UNITED KINGDOM: For the past two and a half years, the President and I have had the duty and privilege of being the latest guardians of this precious and profound friendship between our countries. As with our predecessors, when we have faced threats to the security of our citizens and our allies, we have stood together and acted together.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: Ceremonies will begin to honor Allied forces who took part in the D-Day invasion. You know, the big cause to focus on those who fought rather than Donald Trump who has actually been quite a divisive figure over the last couple years. Given the presence of the U.S. President and the protests and everything they come with him, will this be easier said than done?
PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, today this is going to be a huge commemorative event here in Portsmouth marking an incredibly significant event in Europe's modern history, the D-Day landing 75 years ago. That military operation which played such a huge role in in the ultimate outcome of the Second World War.
And so with that in mind, the event is really much bigger than any one guest here today. And Donald Trump is just one guest, a significant one, but he will not be the focus of what is being thought about, remembered, and honored here today.
At the heart of it, you're going to have the veterans, more than 300 of them, those who actually lived through the storming of Normandy beaches, who dropped from the sky or provided support from the air and from the sea as well.
And then there will be as you've touched on there, I think a lot of focus on the bigger themes and that is the significance of events like today, the significance of the international relationships. These are bigger than the personalities involved.
And so I think a big theme in all of this is going to be the extraordinary international cooperation that it took to plan and execute the D-Day landings and the relevance of that sort of cooperation and coordination in today's international context as well, John.
VAUSE: So Dominic, would you expect you know, the weight of the moment, the significance, the meaning, the importance of this anniversary you know, mark like days of memorials and celebrations. Would you expect that to be lost on this U.S. President?
DOMINIC THOMAS, CNN EUROPEAN AFFAIRS COMMENTATOR: Yes, I do. Because I think that his very presence there is he finds himself completely out of his comfort zone. He'll be in the presence of French President Emmanuel Macron, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and this event is not about him.
He never does well at these large gatherings of international leaders. And the focus will be on the veterans and on the commemorations and it's an incredibly important moment historically because of course the 75th anniversary, the very fact that there are still some veterans that will be present there means that just simply mathematically the next time there is a major commemoration they won't be there.
So it marks a major kind of changing point and all of the discussion as Phil pointed out will be about the fact that this was just such an extraordinary example of multilateralism of different countries working together to fight against evil.
And all of the comments about that either implicitly or explicitly invariably will end up resonating and being directed at a President Trump who is so responsible for the uncertainty that lies today in these multilateral relationships because of his America first agenda and the way in which in fact he's offended so many of the leaders that will be there for these commemorations.
VAUSE: Maybe she's asked the question of Donald Trump will be able to see all these events playing out, you know, because it seems on Tuesday he had trouble seeing what was plainly obvious to everybody else. It was the tens of thousands of thousands of anti-Trump protesters who had gathered on the streets of London. This is what the President saw as we said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: And then I heard that there were protests. I said where are the protests? I don't see any protest? I did see a small protest today when I came, very small. So a lot of it is fake news, I hate to say. But you saw the people waving the American flag, waving your flag, it was tremendous spirit and love. There was great love. It was an alliance.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: So Phil, the President talking about you know, at one point thousands of supporters lining the streets of London waving their flags, their MAGA hats I guess. Right now in Portsmouth, how many thousands of well-wishers and supporters have turned up to cheer the U.S. President?
BLACK: Not many so far, John, but it is very early. I would not expect to see many people here -- many people here over the course of the day for that purpose. The people of Portsmouth understand what this day is about. It is a defining moment in this city's history because this is where so many of the -- of the vessels set off from as well as the nearby coastline to launch that operation to storm the beaches of Normandy.
It's incredibly important. They understand what this is all about. And so people will be coming here today, yes, but it will be to remember what happened here 75 years ago and as we've been talking about to remember its significance in the outcome of the war and of course to honor those who took part and who endured that extraordinary operation back then.
VAUSE: It is an incredibly important day which we've made that point absolutely clear. Dominic, you know, in the past though, there have been anti-American protests in London and across the U.K. before. The Iraq war as a classic example. George W Bush was incredibly unpopular. His war was incredibly unpopular. He acknowledged that. But he didn't fly by a chopper from event to event to avoid being you know, to avoid seeing these scenes of protests.
THOMAS: No he didn't. And he came as you mentioned at a time when there were massive anti-war protests, if anything that dwarfed the kinds of protests that are taking place you know, around the U.K. right now during President Trump's visit.
George W Bush pointed out at the time that people would disagree with him but that they had the right to express himself. And he underscored the importance of freedom of speech and of course at the time was visiting with Tony Blair that was very closely allied with him on these particular questions.
And the demonstrations went ahead. And there were an important component of what was effectively the first state visit by an American President in the modern era.
VAUSE: You know, Phil, to you. If the U.S. President was hoping that this trip would you know, help emphasize the benefits of a free trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K., then the comment he made about the national health service at a news conference with Theresa May probably did more harm than good. This is what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: When you -- when you're dealing on trade, everything is on the table. So NHS or anything else you're a lot -- a lot more than that, but everything will be on the table, absolutely, OK.
MAY: But the point about making trade deals is of course that both sides negotiate and come to an agreement about what should or should not be in that trade deal for the -- for the future.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: Notably Theresa May jumping in there to say it's a negotiation. The President did get a chance for a do-over, for a fixer during an interview of morning television where he said it was off the table. Here he is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: I don't see it being on the table. Somebody asked me a question today and I say everything's up for negotiation because everything is, but I don't see that being -- that's something that I would not consider part of trade. That's not trade.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: You know, the back and forth, despite the walk back, it seems the comments from the President have raised fear that at the end of the day these trade negotiations between Britain and the U.K. -- between Britain and the U.S. rather, we'll see the U.S. simply add to -- you know, screw over Britain in a deal that they make.
[01:10:11] BLACK: Yes. It is a real fear here. And you're going to hear a lot more about this as Britain enters its post-Brexit future because once it leaves the E.U., the trade deals that the E.U. is negotiated won't apply. It's going to have to negotiate its own. A big one, perhaps the biggest of all, obviously, would be securing one with the United States.
And there is a fear here -- and look, it exists in speculation so far but there's a real fear that in a hard-nosed negotiation with the United States. There would have to be give and take. Britain would believe negotiating with a much more powerful economic country in the form of America and so as a result would have to make concessions, allow access to markets and through products and services, American products and services that it would otherwise not feel comfortable with.
And the NHS is a real emotive flashpoint on this because it is a taxpayer-funded nationally loved and respected institution. And the idea of allowing American health and medical companies greater access is hugely politically controversial here.
The fear is that when it comes down to the crunch of securing a deal would the British government be able to say no that is not on the table if it meant not getting the deal done. So far as it stands, that is the position that is held in a -- across the political spectrum here. No one is in favor of offering the NHS up for these sorts of negotiations.
But these are issues that Britain is really going to have to get to the heart of once it leaves the European Union because it does need to do these trade deals and particularly one with the U.S. That's a real focus here and it's a big part of why we are seeing Donald Trump honored in the way that we have seen him honored here over the course of this state visit, John.
VAUSE: But Dom, it's interesting, Dominic, over the weekend the U.S. ambassador cause the exact same outrage using the exact same language about a trade deal and the NHS. The new -- the White House knew this was a controversial issue. They knew how people would react. They said that he saw it 48 hours ago, yet the President stumbled on this anyway. What was his briefing like?
THOMAS: Right. It was absolutely terrible. And this is -- you know, you could not have two systems that are -- that are the more different. The United States healthcare system is a major issue and source of inequity in society. It's extraordinarily expensive. And one of the great success stories of post Second World War Britain was providing the universal health care and access through the taxation system to free health care for U.K. residents.
And so the other aspect of course is that the whole narrative of Brexit which is really what Donald Trump here has created you know, problems by interjecting and in this particular area was about the U.K. becoming the sovereign powerful nation that would be able to negotiate these trade deals, not to become the 51st state of the United States.
And of course, these issues will be -- will be on the table. It's just the Brexiters did not want this to become front and center and it clearly is going to be as we -- as they go into this party leadership race. These questions will be there and will now be talked about even more.
VAUSE: Very quickly, you know, we've got Theresa May who is this lame-duck leader. She's gone on Friday. So Dominic, what was the point of this meeting in the first place?
THOMAS: I mean, this is really the point was that it was scheduled you know, two years ago. They were talking about it two years ago, and Theresa May did not anticipate that she would no longer be Prime Minister.
And the whole point of meeting with the U.S. President was that the hope early on in these Brexit talks was to be able to push and to show Parliament, to show the British people that the argument for Brexit was precisely about striking these deals. That were going to restore the U.K. to this sovereign position, this global power that would be able to go out there and trade with these -- with these nation states.
And this is completely backfired here because actually what Donald Trump's visit has pointed out is that the UK which is what so many people have said will be in a much weaker position when it comes to negotiating these trade deals and that there are so many aspects of it that they have not adequately thought about in what is essentially an emotional issue and one in which the real kind of technicalities and implications have been shielded from the public in the discussions about Brexit.
VAUSE: Yes. And we see how the politics of that has already seen to play out. The opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, he jumped on those initial comments made by President Trump about the NHS. He tweeted Theresa May stood next to Donald Trump as he said the NHS will be on the table in a U.S. trade deal. And that's what Tory leadership contenders and Farage, Nigel Farage are lining up for, the No Deal disaster capitalism plans they have.
They all need to understand, our NHS is not for sale. So you know, for others who have been running for the Tory leadership have said similar stuff but you know, this really seems to be a gift by the U.S. President to the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
[01:14:55] BLACK: It could be viewed as that. And as I say, it really does feeds into what we're already these very powerful existing fears over what the status of the NHS would be in any future negotiation with the United States over a trade deal. Jeremy Corbyn, though, is someone who has -- well, he's played this visit in an unusual way. In a sense, he's trying to -- he tried distance himself from Donald Trump.
He did that from the outset he's stayed away from the state banquet at Buckingham Palace, deliberately saying that this, sort of, state visit, this red carpet treatment, for this American President, was inappropriate. He spoke publicly at an anti-Trump protest.
And then we -- it was only that we learned from President Trump himself during yesterday's press conference, that Mr. Corbyn had requested a meeting a direct one-on-one meeting with the American President, and the American President declined.
Mr. Corbyn later confirmed that. But, interestingly, he did not announce the fact that his request for a meeting had been rejected in advance. We only learned that from the American President himself. These are two figures who are, obviously, polar opposites of the political spectrum.
They're never expected to get along. But, Jeremy Corbyn has tried to use this state visit to his own political ends, in a way that , well, I think, it's being interpreted here with mixed degrees of success, John.
VAUSE: Phil, thank you. Phil Black, live for us, in Portsmouth, start of a long day for you, and Dominic, there in Los Angeles, the end of a long day for you. Thank you both.
Next up here, on CNN, resistance may not be (INAUDIBLE) Republican lawmakers appear ready to oppose Trump's plan to slap tariffs on all imports coming from Mexico. Also ahead, that cruise to Cuba, cancelled. Trump administration opposing new restrictions on U.S. travel to the communist island, but why now?
VAUSE: Well, Republican senators in the United States look set to do what they have rarely done before, not only speaking out against the U.S. President, this time, on his plan to slap tariffs on imports from Mexico, but also, maybe block this plan, as well. Everything from cars, to food, would be affected. It's a plan even White House aides say risks slowing the U.S. economy.
It's still unknown if Republican lawmakers have enough votes to block the President, but Mr. Trump says they would be foolish to try. The tariffs will take effect, Monday, an attempt to pressure Mexico to stop migrants from crossing, illegally, into the United States.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Mexico should not allow millions of people to try and enter our country, and they could stop it very quickly, and I think they will. And if they won't, we're going to put tariffs on.
[01:20:11] And every month, those tariffs go from 5 percent, to 10 percent, to 15 percent, to 20, and to 25 percent, and what will happen then is all of those companies that have left our country and gone to Mexico, are going to be coming back to us, and that's OK.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: Ryan Patel joins us now, he's a Senior Fellow with the Drucker School of Management at Claremont Graduate University. Fancy.
OK, Ryan, this does seem to be a moment of truth for the Republican and Republican Party, and a commitment and a relief to free trade, as one of the core essential elements of party ideology. Here's a senate leader, Republican, Mitch McConnell. Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY): There is not much support in my conference for tariffs, that's for sure.
TEXT: Will you try to block those tariffs?
MCCONNELL: Well, what I'm telling you is, we're hoping that that doesn't happen.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: Well, hope is great, but maybe the reality is they will have to do something, because if Trump goes with his plan, and one of the only few ways he's going to be blocked is via a veto proof majority in Congress. And it does seem, by many accounts, Senate Republicans have grown a spine, and they may be ready to stand up to the President.
RYAN PATEL, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, AKA President Trump is known as Mr. Tariff Man, and if we haven't seen it, he has been truly going to follow this plan that say he's bluffing.
I don't really know, I mean, to this point, the Republican Party, as you just heard, they're hoping that he may not get to that point where they have to do something, and the only other hope they have is that the Mexican officials that are here this week, that there is some positivity that is coming out of it.
And that dodges the Republican Party and the Democratic Party to be able to have to step up to the President, in this case. And like I said, what is different about this trade tariff, you know, this tariff is not a tool anymore, it is a weapon.
President Trump has used this as a weapon where he can turn it on and off, and he's using this toward the immigration policy, which is really different compared to the U.S.-China trade piece. And this has an effect with those two sectors that you mentioned.
Agricultural and automated could decimate both those places and not just at the top level of companies, but mid-sized companies start-ups when you get to the 25 percent (INAUDIBLE)
VAUSE: OK, look, so, and it's legally questionable at best. And Donald Trump was specifically asked about this rebellion building, you know, within the GOP. This was his answer.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And what do you think of Republicans who say that they may take action to block you imposing those tariffs?
TRUMP: Oh, I don't think they will do that, I think if they do it, it's foolish. There's nothing more important than borders.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: OK, so let's, you know -- what happened to the Republicans, you know, for a moment, if they actually have that spine removed, they wimp out, the tariffs take effect, I guess, then what? Because this border, the trade across this border is so linked, it's so (INAUDIBLE) back and forth all the time before they reach market.
PATEL: And that's correct. I think that what's going to happen is he is going to look for a win here, to not only come through the end of the deal of the NAFTA deal, the NAFTA piece, but also what he's going to focus on, is he's going to get something from Mexico. This has been his M.O., even if it's a little bit better from the deal.
He's always going to use this tariff and not -- I mean, he actually, in his mind, and in this case, and you can argue he feels like he has a leverage, he's coming out against his own party. Who's going to tell him not to do this, except for Congress? And if Congress doesn't do it, I see that this is going to happen (INAUDIBLE) in a few months in this tariff piece until he gets -- until he gets a wind that he's looking for.
VAUSE: Well, publicly, at least, leaders from Mexico, from the President on down, appeared to be calm, they appeared to be optimistic, at least, what they have been saying, and they're hoping this flashpoint will be resolved. This is the President. Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANDRES MANUEL LOPEZ OBRADOR, PRESIDENT OF MEXICO (through translator): I'm optimistic, I think tomorrow's meeting is very important and an agreement will be reached before June 10th, before the imposition of such tariffs. There are indications that U.S. officials do care.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: Behind the scenes, there's reporting that Mexico has prepared two plans; plan A, reduce illegal immigration, plan B, retaliation. What does retaliation look like because that looks like that's where we are going?
PATEL: What it looks like it is, a lot of different things. I think it's going to be an evolution of what the China-U.S. trade pieces that Mexican -- if it is tariffs, they're going to go after specific U.S. companies to hit it hard. They just can't get into this back and forth because, obviously, the U.S. has a little bit more to play with here.
But you do have to give kudos to Mexico and the Mexican President. When Donald -- when President Donald Trump actually announces immediately, he was -- the Mexican President was very calm and said I'm not going to get into this confrontation and I'm going to be able to be calm and to negotiate this.
And I think that might be a recipe for success to make these crossroads to go away, but again, I think they've said everything they needed to do. And then now, the ball will be back into Mexico's court to see what teeth they have.
[01:25:10] VAUSE: Because there's the economic side, obviously, they can impose new tariffs of their own, but they'll lose that, you know, their economy is much smaller, much weaker than the United States, but there seems (INAUDIBLE) security corporation.
I mean, you have Mexican forces, you know, patrolling the border which, you know, despite what the President says and he complains about illegal migration coming into the country from Mexico, it's a legitimate concern.
But already, there is a great deal of corporation when it comes to narcotics, illegal immigration, and the Mexican security forces are doing a lot. They could stop that immediately. And that could have a big impact on this country.
PATEL: And that's where, I think, you see -- I've seen over the last few days that U.S. citizens and consumers, let's just say, are actually a lot more -- I will say fearful, but they're going to feel this a lot more faster than many other trade wars that we've seen in the last 18 months.
And that's what's kind of scary about the economy, what you were mentioning. You can feel this effect much faster. You can feel the border open and close, like you mentioned, if all of a sudden there is no security there.
You will see it in an immediate over the next three months to four months, not something, again, hate to compare it to the U.S.-China, not something where it's been turned off and on and back off again, and in this case, it's going to be on -- if it's going to be on, it's going to be on until October, and you can believe that.
VAUSE: Yes, interesting times, Ryan. Thank you, good to see you.
VAUSE: So, in blanket terms, now just days away, American companies which rely on Mexican imports are bracing for a big impact on their bottom line, that's a cause which is likely to be passed on, at least, in part, to American consumers. Here's Vanessa Yurkevich.
VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS REPORTER: This month, Jaime Chamberlain is expecting truckloads full of grapes from Mexico. But he wasn't expecting to pay tariffs.
JAIME CHAMBERLAIN, PRESIDENT, CHAMBERLAIN DISTRIBUTING: So, 5 percent, for now, is absolutely horrible, going to 10, 15 percent, 20 percent, I can't even -- I can't even imagine.
YURKEVICH: Chamberlain imports 100 percent of his fruits and vegetables from Mexico to his warehouse in Nogales, Arizona. If the President's tariffs take effect next week --
CHAMBERLAIN: We have red peppers coming out of Sinaloa.
YURKEVICH: Chamberlain who voted for Trump, will pay more to bring his produce across the border.
CHAMBERLAIN: These are not a good idea, and this is not the way I would do things. But, this is the way the President is choosing to do things because of the Congress that we have. You know, I'm not always going to be on the side of the President.
YURKEVICH: The U.S. imports $26 billion of agricultural products from Mexico, each year, and manufacturing, dwarfs that.
RICHARD RUBIN, PRESIDENT, JAVID LLC: We are shipping $450 million annually across the border. For my customers to pay an extra $100 million, I'm not sure that they're going to stick around.
YURKEVICH: Richard Rubin owns 26 factories in Mexico, importing materials for American companies, which he says provides millions of U.S. jobs.
RUBIN: Mexico is our friend, right? Mexico deserves the respect and the dignity. It's not a business, it's a country. And this should be solved through diplomacy.
YURKEVICH: Guillermo Valencia brokers (INAUDIBLE) trade deals between U.S. and Mexican companies.
GUILLERMO VALENCIA, PRESIDENT, VALENCIA INTERNATIONAL: We're throwing punches in the dark because we don't know what to expect. We know that we have to take this President, seriously. Some people are saying he's just threatening. But we can't just assume he's threatening.
YURKEVICH: As the broker, Valencia ensures tariffs are paid, his company imports and exports products to Mexico.
VALENCIA: This is a component for a major U.S. manufacturer that's producing electric cars. YURKEVICH: So this could be in someone's backseat, one day?
VALENCIA: It will be in someone's backseat. So, you haven't bought this car yet, there's going to be an increase cost to this car.
YURKEVICH: Because of the tariffs?
VALENCIA: Because of the tariffs, right. And it could be up to 25 percent, and it could be more, because this product went back and forth a couple of times, depending amount of times, it could be 50, 70 percent, tariff upon tariff upon tariff upon tariff.
VAUSE: Our thanks to Vanessa Yurkevich for that report. Well, it's the economy is stupid, words of political wisdom which has stood the test of time. That is until Donald Trump came along and rewrote the playbook, details on that, in a moment.
Also, honoring those who gave their lives for freedom, we will talk to the veterans who fought in the battle of Normandy, the beginning of the end of the Second World War.
 VAUSE: Welcome back everybody. Thank you for staying with us.
I'm John Vause with an update on our top news this hour.
The U.S. president is promising a phenomenal trade deal with the U.K. but his suggestion the National Health Service would be on the table in those trade talks has been met with immediate opposition. A few hours later he walked back those comments. But Donald Trump says he will join world leaders at D-Day commemorations in the coming hours.
Some U.S. Republican senators are warning President Trump they oppose his plan to slap tariffs on Mexican imports. Those after the President said it would be fooling for his party to try and stop it. Trump says the tariffs will take effect Monday, an attempt to push Mexico to stop migrants from crossing illegally into the United States.
A week ago, we took a closer look at one of the most enduring truisms of policies and why Donald Trump was not just dealing with good chance to win a second term, but was totally an overwhelming favorite to win in 2020.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: It's really economy, stupid. It's really the economy.
VAUSE: Democratic strategist James Carville first coined the term "it's the economy, stupid" in 1992. Four words of political wisdom which has stood the test of time because according to a number of different polls which use the relative strength or weakness of the U.S. economy as the only data that had produced one consistent fact.
A first-term president with a good economy is reelected. A first-term president with a weak economy is not -- period.
All the other, you know, Russia investigations and all the congressional hearings and everything that has sort of gone on with this White House will last two or three years -- that just doesn't play into it?
DON LASKIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, TREND MACROLYTICS: It doesn't. We've gone back and tried to improve the prediction ability of our model by including polling data and approval data. And it actually makes the results worse.
I think it's like what you said in the introduction. You know, the economy is the ultimate poll. It just reaches out and touches everybody.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VAUSE: And just as we're about to pack up the election graphics send Wolf Blitzer on vacation and called 202 for Donald J. Trump along came our own professor Ron Brownstein to say "not so fast, stupid". I actually made that bit up.
Ron joins us now from Los Angeles. So Ron, what you have found is that in the past there was definitely this strong connection between, you know, a strong robust economy and an incumbent President winning a second term. But it also started to erode in the last couple of elections 2016, 2018 -- the health of the economy, not as important for voters going to other issues like you know, racism and sexism.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Look, I believe we are moving to a political alignment in the U.S. and indeed much of the western world that is based more about culture than class, more about values than interests. And in that world, how well the economy is doing at any given moment is probably less predictive of how voters divide than is how they feel about whether the candidates they are voting on, and in particular the sitting president, reflect their values, reflects their vision of what the country is becoming.
And look, I mean you know, historically these models have worked very well. But there is I think a lot of evidence that perceptions of the economy and perceptions of the sitting president are disconnecting, detaching from each other.
[01:35:04] VAUSE: We're sort of seeing that right now play out in the United States. And we've seen that happen, you know, over the last couple of years. You know, there's always been this gulf between President Trump's approval numbers and satisfaction with the economy. I mean there's this Quinnipiac poll which came out recently, very typical of many. 71 percent of voters felt the economy was good or excellent, the highest numbers in 18 years. Yet Trump's approval rating is 38 percent.
BROWNSTEIN: Right. And I think that is a critical divergence -- John.
I mean one of the reasons these models work so well historically is because the presidential approval which I believe is the key variable in a first term president -- presidential approval traditionally has tracked the economy. When the economy is good, the President's approval rating goes up. And as you note in that Quinnipiac poll there is an enormous gulf between the share of people who say the economy is good and the share of people who say they approve of Trump's performance.
And it is particularly -- that gap is particularly large among some of the groups that are doing the best in the economy. If you look at college educated white voters who are probably at the peak of the economic pyramid -- you know, unemployment rate almost, you know, almost nonexistent. Many have stock holdings and so are benefiting from the rising stock market.
Three quarters of them said the economy is either excellent or good. Yet only 36 percent in that poll approved Donald Trump and that is in fact what we saw in actual practice in 2018. In 2018, of the 43 Republican-held seats in the House the Democrats won, 35 had a median income that was above the national average values Trump's economics in 2018. And I don't there's any reason to think that it will not again in 2020.
By the way, the reverse is true. Blue collar workers, many of whom are still struggling, are much more drawn to Donald Trump on cultural grounds. And it's not clear to me that their economic performance one way or the other is going to outweigh that.
VAUSE: So how is this sort of shaping the two major parties in the United States?
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Well, look, we are living through a class inversion -- what I call the class inversion. If you go back to the first decades -- the decades right before and the decades after World War II traditionally, Democrats were the party of working people and Republicans were the party of people who, you know, sat in the corner office, who wore a tie to work, college-educated voters typically were Republican. Blue collar voters were Democratic.
That began to shift in the 70s and 80s and now it is completely inverted. Hillary Clinton ran 17 points better among white voters with a college education than among white voters without a college education which was by far the largest gap we ever saw.
And so as you look forward to 2020, I mean you look at the people who don't like Donald Trump -- young people don't like Donald Trump, minorities don't like Donald Trump and college educated white voters many of whom are doing just fine in this economy, especially the women, don't like Donald Trump.
And they don't like him because they don't like his values, not necessarily because they are hurting at the ballot box. I think you're going to see this very starkly in 2020 as I said. And Donald Trump has more to fear from people who are doing well in the economy, particularly among whites and people who are struggling in the economy.
But I think you are going to see a very stark division on a class basis and also on a geographic basis with the Democrats dominating in the major metros that are really defining the new economy and Republicans relying more on the non- metro places that to a larger extent are left out of this economic transition.
Same thing as Brexit, same thing many parts of the world.
VAUSE: So if the old -- you know, the old truism, the old James Carville advice "it's the economy, stupid" no longer holds true, what's the new rule?
BROWNSTEIN: I think it's the values, stupid. I mean you know -- I think look, obviously any President would rather a run on a good economy than a bad economy. And there's some evidence that a bad economy is more harmful to a president than a good economy is helpful to that president.
But the fact is, if you look at the analysis, the academic analysis that we've done in 2016, they show that economic discontent was much less reliable as a predictor of who switched from Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016 than were attitudes on the big cultural changes in America; the increasing diversity, the changing role of women. I think that is essentially mobilization that we will see.
A Republican coalition based on the voters who are least happy with the way the country is changing. A Democratic coalition that is revolving around the voters who are comfortable with those changes. And at the margins battling for some of those white collar white men and blue collar white women who are be the probably the loosest pieces and it's a very congealed electoral environment.
And maybe for those women the economy is a key factor but the men are doing fine and they will be kind of pulled between their economic satisfaction and their discontent over Trump's behavior and values.
VAUSE: Well, you know, Donald Trump defies political norms. He blew up the rulebooks to win the presidency. So all of this sort of fits in with a trend that we've been seeing for sometime.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Absolutely.
VAUSE: Ron -- good to see you. Thank you.
BROWNSTEIN: Thanks -- John.
[01:39:59] VAUSE: Delta has adjusted its flight schedule to Cuba while United and Southwest say they're still reviewing new travel guidelines just announced by the Trump administration.
CNN's Patrick Oppmann explains why Washington has imposed these new travel restrictions.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) PATRICK OPPMANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: If you are U.S. citizen and you are hoping to go to Cuba and haven't planned your trip just yet, you may have waited too long.
The Trump administration on Tuesday rolled back much of the Obama era opening with a communist-run island. It is going to be much more difficult for U.S. citizens to travel to Cuba.
Now, the Trump administration said that essentially, what they've done is made it illegal to go to Cuba as a tourist. That what they called veiled tourism that even though tourism is restricted and travel is restricted to Cuba.
Now one category people to be -- people travel will no longer be allowed. These were the organized group tours. Also, how people came to Cuban on U.S. cruise ships and that will no longer be prohibited.
It's not clear if cruises will be prohibited as well. But it's going to be a lot tougher for Americans to go to the island. It's essentially rolling back the changes that were made under President Obama.
And the Trump administration said they are doing this because of Cuba's assistance to Venezuela, Cuba's backing to the Maduro regime and that Cuba's, quote, "a communist foothold in the region".
This will obviously have an impact on the Cuban government. Hotels were full with Americans. Americans were the second largest category of travelers after Canadians.
So, this will hurt the Cuban government. It's also going to hurt U.S. cruises, U.S. airlines because you have less people coming from the U.S. and Cuban entrepreneurs, these are people who have opened up restaurants, and AirBNB's and apartment rentals to meet this increase demand of all these Americans coming.
And there will be many, many less Americans coming because even though while some categories of travelers will still be allowed. This was really how many, if not most Americans came to the island and it will now be prohibited.
President Trump says that he's taking a very different tack towards Cuba, much more sanctions, and the Cuban economy which is already suffering will likely suffer even more.
Patrick Oppman, CNN -- Mexico City.
VAUSE: 75 years ago the largest sea-borne invasion in history was waiting to begin. The world was about to change. It's the beginning of the end of the Second World War and Europe as we know today would born. It was D-Day. 160,000 allied soldiers from the U.S., Canada, and England would storm the beaches of Normandy in France. Everything relied on their success. There was no Plan B. In the upcoming hours on the eve of the 75th anniversary, Britain will commemorate their incredible sacrifice. The U.S. president will join Queen Elizabeth and the British Prime Minister in Portsmouth for special services.
Ahead of June 6, 16 nations have signed a proclamation saying it is their responsibility to ensure the horror of World War II is never repeated.
There were 10,000 allied casualties from the very first day. One veteran told us it was just the high price of freedom. The D-Day vets now in their 90s are heading back to Europe to the horror -- to honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice.
As Jim Bittermann reports, he's following their footsteps now, they return to the Normandy Beaches where they landed 75 years ago.
JIM BITTERMANN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The first time Vern Ollar sailed along the Normandy Coast, it wasn't exactly on board a luxury cruise ship.
It was 75 years ago where and his transport was a military landing craft heading for Omaha Beach on the coast of France. He barely got there, his boat got hit and he almost drowned weighed down by heavy mortar equipment, but Ollar survived.
VERN OLLAR, 81ST CHEMICAL MORTAR BATTALION: We lost a lot of guys, and I always get a little lump in my throat, because all those guys -- we had almost 2,000 D-Day just on Omaha -- 18, 19, 21-year-old guys. It makes me -- I get choked up.
BITTERMANN: At 98 years old, Ollar has come back along with 17 other vets on a tour organized by the National World War II Museum in New Orleans. Scores of allied veterans now at least in their 90s, are in Normandy for this anniversary of D-Day, the last salute some are calling. It is not sure how many more years there will be old soldiers around to share their living memory.
PAUL HILLARD, CHAIRMAN, NATIONAL WWII MUSEUM: I keep that memory alive with me. There was a very high price paid for that freedom. So, value it, so that's -- I guess that's what we are trying to bring forward is the value of freedom.
BITTERMANN: So much of this year's commemoration is about remembrance not only for those who were here on Omaha Beach, but for those who weren't for those who never knew or have forgotten exactly how much of modern Europe and today's world is based on what happened here 75 years ago.
[01:45:00[ Long gone are the generals and colonels who gave the orders and understood the bigger picture and how important it was for the D- Day landings to establish a toe hold on a continent that had lost its freedom. Those who came back this there anniversary, were well down in the ranks. Like paratrooper Guy Whidden, who says, he was just doing his job.
GUY WHIDDEN, 101ST AIRBORNE DIVISION: I always thought God was with me. I don't remember any fear at all, some apprehension not knowing exactly what was happening.
BITTERMANN: To help the vets and others understand just that -- the importance of what they were part of -- there were lectures and seminars on board their cruise ship to put D-Day in context. And there was musical nostalgia to bring back a happy memory or two of what will be like to feel young again.
But mostly thought this anniversary are serious about an event many here like Ollar say changed their lives and changed the world forever.
Jim Bittermann, CNN -- on the Normandy coast of France.
VAUSE: Well, he's a cardinal, a former aide to the Pope, also a convicted child molester. Now there's a chance George Pell might walk free. The latest on his appeal in Australia coming up.
Also the death toll continues to rise after an attack on Sudanese protesters. What the military are saying after the bloodshed.
VAUSE: Well, some families in the Sudan have spent the Eid holiday mourning their dead. Doctors say at least 60 people have died after security forces attacked protesters in Khartoum on Monday.
Witnesses say live ammunition was used as demonstrators demanded civilian rule. All this the last sign the military won't give up power after the fall of dictator Omar al Bashir. But the country's military chief says he wants elections. He appeared on TV on Tuesday calling for a vote within nine months.
There are reports the opposition remain skeptical and is calling for more protests.
Hew rose to the most senior ranks of the Catholic Church but the disgraced Australian cardinal George Pell, once again in court appealing his conviction on child sex abuse charges. In march the former Vatican treasure and aide to Pope Francis was sentenced to six years in prison. He was found guilty of molesting to choir boys.
Lawyers though are now before Victoria's Supreme Court, arguing he did not receive a fair trial. If the convictions are overturned Pell is likely to walk free.
[01:50:03] More now from CNN's Anna Coren with us live from Melbourne. What's the timeframe here? When are we expecting a decision from this court, and then what? ANNA COREN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: John -- that's a very good question.
We could get a decision tomorrow. We could get a decision in a matter of weeks. We just don't know.
What we do know is that legal argument is continuing inside of the court of appeals here at the Supreme Court of Victoria in Melbourne. And Pell's team is furiously arguing that these were unreasonable verdicts. This is at the heart of their legal argument, and why they believe that George Pell should be acquitted.
They believe that the testimony and the evidence delivered by the sole surviving choir boy could not convince the jury beyond reasonable doubt that George Pell was guilty of sexually abusing those two choirboys back in 1996 and 1997 when he was archbishop of Melbourne.
Brett Walker, Pell's defense barrister, appeals barrister said it was impossible for Pell to have committed these crimes. He said, quote, "the offending not only did not occur but could not have occurred". He believes that there were at least 13 obstacles in the way of conviction.
Now, he has convinced two of the three of the appeals court judges who have been forensically, you know, examining the evidence. There are two other grounds, one is this video graphic that was not allowed in the closing argument. The other was that Pell was not allowed -- did not enter a plea before the jury.
Now these would lead to a retrial if the unreasonable verdict that would lead to an acquittal. Now George Pell, he is inside of that court, he is taking notes, he is listening intently, he's dressed in a black suit. He's wearing his collar.
Very soon this court will adjourn and he will be taken back to the Melbourne detention -- assessment prison, I should say center, which is where he has been for the past three months, He's held in solitary confinement 23 hours a day, so no doubt he was somewhat looking forward to an outing here.
But legal opinion, John, very much divided. There is obviously that can't believe that Pell is innocent that this has been a miscarriage of justice. And then hear the very strong case. And will walk free.
There's the other candidate that says that the court of appeal is reluctant to overturn the decision of the jury, and you have to remember that it was still 12 Australians who heard the evidence and the testimony of their sole surviving choir boy, not the media not the public, because here in Victoria, the identity of sexual abuse victims is protected, so he was given anonymity.
At the end of the day, John as we know the jury found him to be credible, and trustworthy, which is why they found George Pell guilty of those five counts. His legal team as I say, they are laying out their case. Tomorrow will be the prosecution's to turn, and then it's up to those three judges here at the court of appeals-- John.
VAUSE: Anna -- thank you. We appreciate the update. Anna Coren live for us in Melbourne.
A short break, when we come back the cat versus the Beast, Larry versus Donald. Details in a moment.
[01:55:08] VAUSE: Larry the Downing Street cat is an even bigger star now, all because of a well-timed photo bomb. Here's Jeanne Moos.
JEANNE MOOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Meet the cat who crawled under the belly of the Beast. This Beast -- that's what they call President Trump's armored limo. When I pulled up in front of 10 Downing Street, Larry the cat was perched on Number 10's window grooming.
Larry couldn't care less when President Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner walked by and when the President and Britain's Prime Minister posed, Larry photo bombed the photo op. After all, this is his territory.
He's been here since 2011 when a rat was spotted scurrying across the doorstep in a BBC live shot. Larry was recruited to keep the rodents at bay.
10 Downing Street seems to be an animal magnet. Watch that Fox trot by. Larry has become a favorite of the press. CNN's Anna Stewart once baited her mike with a cat tree.
ANNA STEWART, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Are you a pleased at the results of this (INAUDIBLE)?
MOOS: Cat got his tongue. A mere beseeching glance at the officer on duty was enough to open doors. Larry's head rivals -- he and a foreign office feline have had words but only Larry has made it into the resignation speech of a prime minister.
DAVID CAMERON, FORMER BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: And the rumor that somehow I don't love Larry -- I do. And I have photographic evidence to prove it.
Sadly I can't take Larry with me. he belongs to the house and the staff love him very much as do I.
MOOS: Larry the Cat has his own Twitter account after he was photographed parked und President Trump's Limo. The account tweeted, what do you expect me to do: Sit out in the rain?
The photo was catnip for Twitter users vying for the perfect cat caption. From (INAUDIBLE) on his tires at number 10 cap to grab it by the -- and with that photo, Larry was catapulted into the stratosphere of feline fame. Jeanie Moos, CNN -- New York.
VAUSE: Happy cat. You're watching CNN NEWSROOM. I'm John Vause. Please stay with us.
Rosemary church will be up after a very short break.
You're watching CNN.
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