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U.S. and Mexico Reach Deal to Avoid Threat of Tariffs on Mexican Goods; A Russian Destroyer Nearly Slams Into U.S. Aircraft Carrier, USS Chancellorsville; Officials in Dominican Republic Await Toxicology Results to Determine Cause of Death of Three American Tourists; Interview With Rep. Ted Yoho (R-FL). Aired 8-9a ET

Aired June 8, 2019 - 08:00   ET




ANNOUNCER: This is New Day Weekend with Victor Blackwell and Christi Paul.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CO-HOST, CNN NEW DAY WEEKEND: Well, plenty of Republicans believe that if President Trump had implemented these tariffs on Mexico, it would have been a crisis. Well now, he has averted that would-be crisis as U.S. and Mexico reach a deal to avoid this threat of tariffs on Mexican goods.

CHRISTI PAUL, CO-HOST, CNN NEW DAY WEEKEND: Yes, this morning the President's tweeting in support of this deal after announcing the news late last night. As part of this agreement, Mexico will deploy National Guard Troops throughout their country that take on human smuggling operations and allow migrants crossing into the U.S. to be returned to Mexico as they await a decision on their asylum claims.

Now in exchange, the U.S. has agreed to speed up the asylum process. Live from the White House, with us now CNN White House Correspondent Sarah Westwood. So, Sarah, the White House obviously framing this as a victory?

SARAH WESTWOOD, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, CNN: That's right, Christi and Victor. President Trump is awake this morning and touting the deal that his administration struck with a Mexico delegation that cost him to back off that treat to impose a 5% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico and in exchange Mexico has agree to deploy those thousands of National Guard Troops throughout its country, but with an emphasis on its Southern border, to try to stop the flow of Central American migrants who come up through Mexico to get to the Southern border.

Also, Mexico agreeing to allow asylum seekers to wait on the Mexican side of the border while their asylum claims are being adjudicated. President Trump this morning framing his agreement as a potential success, writing Mexico will try very hard and, if they do that, this will be a very successful agreement for both the United States and Mexico.

Now, the deal came about after marathon talks here in Washington with that Mexican delegation that were led on the U.S. side by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Yesterday, they reached more than 11 hours of talks at the State Department. Administration officials had signaled that they were fully prepared to move ahead with the President's tariff threat if they didn't reach that deal.

There was hope that one could be struck however by Monday. The Mexican ambassador said that Mexico is prepared to take unprecedented steps to make this agreement happen. Take a listen.


MARTHA BARCENA, MEXICAN AMBASSADOR: As a result of these discussions, the United States and Mexico commit to a Mexican enforcement surge. Mexico will take unprecedented steps to increase enforcement to curb irregular immigration to include the deployment of its National Guard throughout Mexico, giving priority to its southern border. Mexico is also taking decisive action to dismantle human smuggling and trafficking organizations, as well as their illicit financial and transportation networks.


WESTWOOD: Now, many Republicans on Capitol Hill had expressed concerns about the President's threat. They were afraid this could hurt American businesses, that it could cost U.S. consumers. They had sought a delay in the tariffs which the President had announced before heading overseas, so he wasn't present for many of the discussions. But Victor and Christie, now the situation totally avoided with the President walking back that tariff threat.

BLACKWELL: There's still more work to do, though. Sarah Westwood for us at the White House. Thank you. Now, with the extra border enforcement and help in breaking up trafficking networks, the U.S. got almost everything it wanted from Mexico.

PAUL: Yes, but the talk is not over. They are going to go on for another three months, we know. CNN National Correspondent Dianne Gallagher live for us now from El Paso, Texas. So, talk to us about how people at the border are reacting to this, Dianne, and good morning.

DIANNE GALLAGHER, NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT, CNN: Good morning, Christi, Victor. So look, in terms of the fact that tariffs aren't going to be imposed, at least it appears right now, that is a bit of a sigh of relief. The Mexican President actually tweeted shortly after President Trump did, thanking the Mexican people for their support.

He then noted that they're going to gather to celebrate today in Tijuana at 5:00 to celebrate this fact. But as far as migration goes, is this going to affect that? We'll see.


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The numbers haven't looked like this in more than a decade. Nearly 133,000 people apprehended by Customs and Border Protection for crossing into the U.S. illegally in just the month of May. Families making up the majority; more than 11,000 of them unaccompanied children. The acting CBP Commissioner calling it "a full-blown emergency." Government processing centers and shelters overcrowded,


some to dangerous levels with unsanitary and unsafe conditions, according to Department of Homeland Security's watchdog agency.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (Foreign Language) It was so crowded. My son had to sleep standing up.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Belky Castro (ph) from Honduras crossed over into Texas with her two sons in hopes of getting to family in Houston. Instead, she along with hundreds of other migrant families were flown to California to make room.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We didn't realize that folks would be flown into San Diego. San Diego is a great place to live but - so, it did take us by surprise and - but it is apparently three plane loads as week. So around 135, 150 per plane load. We've given up on a logic model to this whole model. There is no logic model.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The reasons for the surge in migration are layered. Right now, people who live in Guatemala and Honduras are facing intense economic and environmental conditions with ever-present violence and a drought that is limiting food availability. But, that is been happening for a long time. Critics of the White House say this most recent extreme spike in movement is a direct result of the President's policies.

UNIDENDIFIED MALE: They're saying the big change is the message that this is your last chance, President Trump, if you are ever going to escape these dire circumstances, you have to come now.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And as President Trump focuses on beefing up security, a wall, more border patrol agents and adding U.S. troops.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Today, we have approximately 2,000 service members supporting the mission along the Southwest border.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Experts say smugglers are becoming more sophisticated. Central American families more aware of U.S. laws and the likelihood they won't be deported in large numbers, at least right away, focusing far more on success stories from neighbors than threats from the White House.


GALLAGHER: And, again, they are still seeing a steady stream of people who are trying to get in over these unauthorized portions of the border right now. Victor, Christi, they have been building facilities to hold specifically those unaccompanied minors that are coming through as they attempt to fight sponsors here in the United States. But, as you saw, they are running out of room and they are hoping that at least in some way this could alleviate that problem at least in the short-term.

PAUL: All right, Dianne Gallagher, thank you so much, we appreciate it. And she mentioned the stream of people that are still coming in. We had cameras at the border to signify that.

BLACKWELL: Yes. And really their sheer emotion showed just how dramatic of an issue this is. You saw the numbers coming through. This is what Gary Tuchman found when he was at the border.

GARY TUCHMAN, CORRESPONDENT, CNN: What we witnessed and what you're about to see was chaotic, depressing, emotional and sad. We spent part of the afternoon with agents from U.S. Border Patrol in a van with them as they patrol the near El Paso, Texas, and what we saw in a 60- minute span was them apprehend eight different family units, 25 people, most of them children. Every five or ten minutes, people were coming out of the Rio Grande.

The first person we saw was Werner (ph). She was a masseur, 25 years old, with a 6-year-old son and a nine-month-old baby on her back. They were all hungry; they were all thirsty, they were all sick. She said she was very poor and she had to come from Guatemala because she had no money left and no means. She said she had heard in her town that people had gotten to the United States as long as they brought children with them, but they had gotten here safely. She was apprehended.

We also met Sandy from Honduras. She didn't come with any children; she's about to have a child. She is 8.5 months pregnant and she came all the way from Honduras, spent three weeks, taking buses, trains and walking to get to the United States. She says that her husband and brother were both killed by gang members. She was afraid it was going to happen to her too, that she had to leave and had to come here.

And then we met a man who brought his two sons and after he was apprehended by Border Patrol, he started crying.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (Foreign language)

TUCHMAN: He has tears of happiness he says that he made it with his son -- with his son. He's very happy.

And we saw that from many of the people, crying out of sense of relief, crying out of happiness when they arrive to and they realize that they were no longer on this journey, something very notable.

The Rio Grande is what separates Texas from Mexico. The middle of the Rio Grande is the border. Here it is relatively dry and people are able to walk across it on rocks. When they walked across the river, they saw this huge 18-foot fence which is about a thousand feet to the north of the river.

All of them said they thought they had to figure out a way to get over the fence. The Border Patrol said, no, you're already in the United States. You crossed the river. They were greatly relieved. So this fence does nothing to stop people from entering the land of the United States. One thing I can tell you is that these Border Patrol agents we work

with are very professional, they are very considerate. They're ambassadors to this country and they do a great job being ambassadors to these people who have gone through an awful lot.

This is Gary Tuchman, CNN, in El Paso, Texas.

PAUL: Gary, thank you. Former Vice President Joe Biden reversing course on abortion funding.


The question now is, is this going to help him or is this going to hurt his campaign?

BLACKWELL: Plus, tensions growing between the U.S. and Russia after this video shows a Russian destroyer nearly slamming into a U.S. aircraft carrier. Congressman Ted Yoho, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, joins us to talk about that.


PAUL: Let's talk about abortion rights because there are a lot of people for whom that debate is central, heading into the 2020 election. There is a new CNN poll out this week that shows, look at this, three in ten Americans would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on that issue. Now, Former Vice President Joe Biden reversed his long stance on the Hyde Amendment that allows federal funds for abortion.

Let's talk to Washington bureau chief of the Chicago Sun-Times, Lynn Sweet, about this. Lynn, it is so good to see you. Thanks for being here.


PAUL: Good morning. So when we look at how important this issue is to people, it might make people wonder if the President -- the Vice President's decision to back away from the Hyde Amendment is authentic, or if it is politically driven. What is the assertion or the assessment there in Washington of that?

SWEET: Well, my analysis is given the timing that this is politically driven. There were certainly many opportunities through the years for Biden to disavow the Hyde Amendment. Many democrats had to end up voting for it.


But they made it clear they didn't like it because the Hyde Amendment was just stuck on to a lot of must-pass bills. So given the timing and that he's -- at this crucial point in his early days of his 2020 presidential run, my analysis is, it is, yes, clearly linked to politics.

PAUL: Okay. Let's listen together here to what Symone Sanders with his campaign had to say when she was pressed on it.




UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's held a position that blocks out those women based on their zip code, justifying it by saying this is part of his religious beliefs which is a fair argument to make. It is just that it is odd to say this is so deeply held religious, emotional, philosophical and then say, well, actually, no longer.

SYMONE SANDERS, BIDEN CAMPAIGN ADVISER: Well, I don't think he said no longer.


PAUL: He didn't say no longer. Is there any chance that there is a risk of him flipping on this issue?

SWEET: No, in politics there is an old saying, Christi, when you explain, you lose. Now, the most important thing is that Former Vice President Biden is a strong supporter of abortion rights. So the core issue here is whether or not this Hyde Amendment is -- impacts the core position that Biden, as every democratic person running for President now has to protect and support abortion rights.

The federal funding issue erodes that right for women who depend on Medicaid, that state federal program. I don't think there is any risk now of Biden publicly saying he wants the government to continue banning federal funds for abortion. So I wouldn't -- that is an untenable political position and if there is confusion about his position, it is a self-inflicted wound and they walked into this and they've got to figure out a way to determine if the damage is done, if there is still some bleeding from this issue or if they have it bottled up. I suspect not, especially with the first round of debates coming up at the end of June in Miami.

PAUL: Yes. So there was some interesting numbers out of Texas this week. It seems Vice President Biden is beating President Trump in polls there, 48% to 44%. Is that reflective of the men or the parties, or is it showing that maybe Texas isn't reliably Republican any longer?

SWEET: Well, we know there had been some movement in Texas with Beto O'rourke's unsuccessful senate run, where nonetheless he made a strong showing. Biden for now is the front-runner. I don't think these polls show as much about Biden as a growing democratic electorate in Texas which had seen such a red state, it would be hard to imagine it turning blue ever.

So my analysis is more as it there was inroads here the democrats are making and I don't know for sure yet if it means it is for Biden only or if other democrats, if they turn out to be stronger than Biden could reap that reward too. PAUL: I want to ask you a real quick question about the tariffs here because we have this agreement on the table now, between the U.S. and Mexico. Tariffs are off the table at the moment. They will not go into effect on Monday. But when we talk about the politics behind all of this, does this agreement replace President Trump's wall, and otherwise will it satisfy his base?

SWEET: Well, this is good -- I just looked before we went on, Trump is now into an-all cap mode on tweet asserting that Mexico also going buy agricultural products. That kind of makes all stories one. No, I don't think -- nothing ever replaces the wall I believe in the President Trump world and in his thought. This is just something that he will be fixated on and we will see if Mexico can really execute this. For the moment, if he has been able to parlay this threat into stemming the migrant tide, this will increase his standing with his base.

PAUL: All right, Lynn Sweet, always appreciate having you on. Thank you, ma'am.

SWEET: And thank you.

PAUL: Sure.

BLACKWELL: So, this video shows a Russian warship nearly crashing into a U.S. aircraft carrier. Now, this near collision is part of the escalating tensions between the countries. Why is this happening is and what will the U.S. do about it?

PAUL: And autopsy results are back revealing new details regarding how three Americans died in the Dominican Republic. And find out why this Colorado couple says, they too became violently ill while they stayed at that same resort.





UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And it is too coincidental with the symptoms that we had for me to even begin to stay quiet about it.



BLACKWELL: The U.S. and Mexico have reached a deal to avoid the threat of tariffs on Mexican goods. Now, some Republican lawmakers were concerned saying that the move could ultimately lead to higher prices for American businesses as well as the Mexican economy. Joining me now to discuss is GOP Congressman Ted Yoho of Florida who supported those tariffs and I expect supports the deal that has been crafted overnight. Congressman, welcome back.

REP. TED YOHO (R-FL): Thanks, Victor. I look forward to talking to you.

BLACKWELL: Certainly. Let's do that now. So let's start here with this deal. The deal really is a means to an end, right. The question is what is that end? The President said we're going to--

YOHO: Absolutely.

BLACKWELL: -- create -- we're going to put tariffs on these imports unless border crossings stop. A couple of months ago, he says we're going to close the border unless these crossings stop. Now, zero apprehensions is not really realistic. What is the number that would satisfy the you, this administration, of monthly crossings? Is it 50,000 or 10,000, what is the number?

YOHO: Well, actually I think zero is feasible. And I think if you have good immigration policies and good border security, why not?


I mean how many people get on an airplane without going through TSA? Saying that, to go from where we are at now, if you look at January, I think we're at 49,000 illegal apprehensions. At the end of May, it was at 97,000. We need to go back prior to where there was a way that we could handle all these people coming in, so that we are not overloaded. And I would say 10,000 to 20,000 would be a minimum.

BLACKWELL: Okay, well, Congressman--

YOHO: As far as maximum coming in.

BLACKWELL: When you say zero. There have not been zero apprehension since I mean going before the Eisenhower Administration and Customs and Border Protection has the numbers on--

YOHO: I realize that.

BLACKWELL: So, zero is not realistic and it hasn't been below 10,000 in decades. So - I mean these numbers that you're saying that would satisfy the administration, how does that happen if it hasn't happened in decades when there have been fewer than 10,000 apprehensions a month at the border?

YOHO: Again, we should set a policy -- what are we trying to do? We're trying to have legalized immigration for people coming in this country the proper way. There is always going to be people sneaking in. And I agree with that. But, why not a goal of saying, this is the standard that we should accomplish or shoot for. The closer we get to that, the better off our country will be.

And if we have -- and again, you said decades. It has been decades. And the reason there has been such a problem with this is because Congress, the House and the Senate, have failed to act to get comprehensive immigration reform and agree on what border security is. They all agree with border security. But we don't come together to do it.

So it forces somebody like a President Trump to finally take a firm and -- a firm stand and say, enough is enough. Fix this problem.

BLACKWELL: You are right about--

YOHO: I think we should always work to have zero.

BLACKWELL: You are right about Congress' inability to act on this. And when you say zero, again the number showed it--

YOHO: Absolutely.

BLACKWELL: It has been a year without lower than 20,000 a year and the reason it is been more than 10,000 a month in the last couple of decades. Let's talk about the tariffs because while there were some Republicans who disagreed with the tariffs, it is notable that both Senators for Florida, Rick Scott and Marco Rubio supported the tariffs. You supported the tariffs. The President says--

YOHO: I do.

BLACKWELL: -- says they are suspended indefinitely, but they're not off the table. Why did you support the threat of tariffs on Mexican imports?

YOHO: Well, it goes to the border crossings that have come in. Mexico has not helped us and they could have helped us. They helped under the Obama Administration. But they have not been at the table on this and I commend President Obrador for doing what he is doing now.

In fact, we put an amendment into the upcoming appropriation bills to redirect money at the southern border of Mexico with Guatemala to build a wall. And this is something we're going to help -- we've put into legislation to help Mexico build this wall.

BLACKWELL: But these--

YOHO: -- because we want to give them the support.

BLACKWELL: There is a delay, so I apologize. When I'm jumping in, you're not hearing me for another second. But when you talk about these tariffs--

YOHO: Okay.

BLACKWELL: These tariffs that cost American businesses and cost Americans more, so why would you--

YOHO: Sure.

BLACKWELL: I want to read actually from a letter you signed back in March of last year, you joined more than 100 House Republicans in signing a letter to the President opposing tariffs on steel and aluminum. And according to the letter, tariffs are taxes that make U.S. businesses less competitive and U.S. consumers poorer. That is the letter; that is your signature. So why would you want to do that?

YOHO: Because the problem, like I said, we're at over 140,000 people coming into this country. How long are you going to let something go on without bringing a resolution to this? So I think the tariffs were a way to go, and yes, there would be pain on both sides. But if we stay the way we are, our country is going to be overrun and we already know our facilities can't handle the people coming in. We don't have enough judges, so something had to be done drastically.

And again, this goes back to the inaction of Congress over the last 36 years. And so, we stood with the President to put tariffs on there to put pressure on the Mexican government because when we met with the Mexican ambassador, they all tell us that they depend on a strong America. Well, with this influx of people coming in overloading our system, that doesn't make America stronger, it weakens America.

In addition to that, if you look at the amount of drugs that come into this country, 93% of the heroin comes directly out of Mexico. Mexico's growing over 73,000 acres of opium and this comes directly into our country. So, if we're going to be good trading partners and they want a strong America, they need to come to the table to help get some of the things under control.

[08:30:00] It is just as much their responsibility as ours, and I stand with President Trump. And if they don't follow through with this--

BLACKWELL: All right.

YOHO: --I think the President will follow through with the tariffs and I'll support him.

BLACKWELL: Let's switch to one other topic before we wrap up here. This week, the administration declassified details of this Russian destroyer that was approaching USS Chancellorsville, this aircraft carrier in the Pacific.

Now, the Pentagon says there had been several, as they would describe it, provocations over the last few months.

YOHO: There has.

BLACKWELL: The latest one coincides with this new bosom buddy declaration between China and Russia. Do you see there is a connection here between Russia's cozying with China and what we saw in the Pacific this week?

YOHO: Oh, absolutely. And Victor, I appreciate you bringing this up, because with all the stuff that's in the news about Russian collusion investigations, these are the serious issues that are facing America that our attention needs to be on what Russia is doing and what China is doing.

And I think this is - those two acting together, if you read the papers, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are ticked off that the United States is putting sanctions on so many entities out of both of those countries. But if you go back to the North Korean negotiations, and I want to illustrate this, because this is why the sanctions are there, there is a unanimous decision vote at the U.N. that 12 countries would agree to sanctions on North Korea.

All 12 countries were supposed to put sanctions. China and Russia backed away from these sanctions and so we sanctioned these entities that were supposed to be helping us. Instead, they're helping North Korea funnel money through there.

And so now they're upset and so together they think they are going to force the United States to do something against what we've already all agreed on, all 12 nations at the Security Council have agreed to put sanctions on North Korea. Those two walk away and then the only recourse we have is to sanction companies within those countries that are doing business with North Korea.

BLACKWELL: All right, well we will see what the fruit of those sanctions are--

YOHO: But thanks for bringing that up.

BLACKWELL: --certainly, from your position on the Asia, Pacific and Nonproliferation Subcommittee there at Foreign Affairs. Representative Ted Yoho, always good to have you on the show.

YOHO: Great.

PAUL: Well, we know that there are toxicology reports being processed right now in the three mysterious deaths at that resort in the Dominican Republic. And as that's happening, there is a couple now in Colorado who says they became horribly ill at that same resort.


BLACKWELL: Officials in the Dominican Republic are waiting for toxicology results to determine the official causes of death of three American tourists who mysteriously died within days of one another at the same resort.

PAUL: Now officials say initial autopsy results show 41-year-old Miranda Schaup-Werner died of a heart attack and Nathaniel Holmes and Cynthia Day had internal bleeding and then abnormal build-up of fluid in their lungs.

BLACKWELL: Well the State Department says the FBI is helping Dominican authorities with those toxicology reports and the island's Tourism Minister says the Dominican Republic is safe and called the deaths isolated incidents.

PAUL: So while authorities are investigating those deaths, this is Colorado couple who have their own story and they're telling it about what they experienced at that same hotel last year.

BLACKWELL: They say the circumstances surrounding the deaths sound really too familiar. CNN's Drew Griffin has their story.


DREW GRIFFIN, CORRESPONDENT, CNN: Kaylynn Knull reached out to CNN almost immediately after learning three Americans just died at the same resort in the Dominican Republic where she believes she was poisoned along with her boyfriend.

What is your reaction?

KAYLYNN KNULL: Blood boiling. It is too coincidental with the symptoms that we had for me to even begin to stay quiet about it.

GRIFFIN: One year ago this month, the Colorado couple traveled to the all-inclusive Grand Bahia Principe Resort La Romana. And for the first few days, it seemed a vacation of a lifetime. But on the sixth day, Knull became ill.

KNULL: I woke up with a headache one morning. We had gone to breakfast to see if I could get some water, get some juice, try some food, and feel better. And when we came back to the room, it actually hit us a lot stronger and we smelled the smell of chemicals.

GRIFFIN: She got progressively worse, then her boyfriend Tom Schwander started feeling it too. They say they were sweating, drooling, dizzy, nauseous, it wouldn't go away, neither would the smell in their hotel room.

KNULL: We saw a housekeeper outside and I called her in to see if she could come in. She walked maybe five or six feet into the room and turned around and said I'm not doing that. And then got on her walkie- talkie to the front desk and said something is going on with this room. She refused to come in and clean it.

GRIFFIN: Kaylynn and Tom had seen someone spraying plants near the air-conditioner outside their room. They assumed it was pesticide, but the hotel wouldn't say what it was. They switched rooms twice; it didn't help.

TOM SCHWANDER: It progressed over the rest of our trip and then over the course of couple of weeks after.

GRIFFIN: A couple of weeks?

SCHWANDER: Yes. The abdominal - the abdominal cramping and the GI upset lasted for a few weeks.

GRIFFIN: And you said drooling?

SCHWANDER: And drooling.


SCHWANDER: Bad sweat, tearing.


SCHWANDER: Dizzy, nauseous. And abdominal cramping was the worst. That was the hardest symptom to deal with, there was so much pain.

GRIFFIN: Back in Colorado, Knull's physician diagnosed her with organophosphate poisoning. Schwander's doctors suspect the same thing. Heavily regulated, and in some cases banned in the U.S., organophosphates are man-made chemicals found in insecticides. Exposure can cause increased saliva, tear production, diarrhea, nausea, sweating, confusion and death.

The couple says they still have occasional symptoms and they are most concerned about their future health. Even after filing a lawsuit, they still do not know what exactly poisoned them.

KNULL: Honestly, all I wanted was the chemical name, that is all I ever wanted. I could care less about the money, if I can save my own life later and him too. It is what happened to him, what happened to me, what is it that we can do at this point.

[08:40:00] GRIFFIN: The Bahia Resort Company failed to answer almost all of our questions, specifically told us they would not comment on the legal case being pursued by this couple and told us not to speculate on recent deaths at their resorts until those deaths are investigated. Drew Griffin, CNN, Denver.


PAUL: So President Trump's deal with Mexico some say may prevent an economic emergency. The question is, how long? We're going to talk about how markets around the world may respond to this immigration and trade deal and what it means for you.


BLACKWELL: President Trump says the agreement with Mexico will work if Mexico makes the effort. So let's talk about if it indeed will work. To respond to that, Jorge Castaneda, Mexico's former Foreign Minister. Sir, good morning, and thank you for joining us.


[08:45:00] BLACKWELL: So the President tweeted out that this deal will, "greatly reduce or eliminate illegal immigration from Mexico to the United States." From what you know about what has been discussed and announced by the respective departments, will it?

CASTANEDA: Well, it certainly won't in the short run because what this - the sense of this deal, as I understand it, is to send a message to the Central Americans, mainly to people in Guatemala and Honduras and then a little bit in El Salvador that they will no longer be able to cross Mexico as easily as before to reach the U.S. border.

And once they are at the U.S. border, they won't be able to enter the United States as easily as before. And if they enter, they will be sent back to Mexico to wait in Mexico for their asylum request to be processed.

That message will eventually get to Central America, and they are the people who decide that despite all of this it is worthwhile to keep trying or it is not. Normally these things take time. It doesn't happen overnight.


CASTANEDA: So that is the first point. That is very important to underline. This is not going to happen overnight, supposing it works, and that is a big supposing.

BLACKWELL: So let's talk about the law enforcement redeployment element of this. Mexico agreed to redeploy its National Guard throughout the country, prioritizing the southern border. If those resources are taken away from combating drug cartels, organized crime and they focus on Mexico's southern border, are we just going to see the same levels of asylum-seekers just with a different national, there will be more Mexicans instead of people coming from the northern triangle?

CASTANEDA: Unfortunately, we went through this in 2014 when there was a surge of unaccompanied minors from Central America reaching the U.S. border. President Obama asked then Mexican President Pena Nieto to seal off the border for the unaccompanied minors, which President Pena Nieto did sending troops and police from elsewhere in the country to the southern border. Mexican violence began to surge also from late 2014 onward to reach its highest levels in history the first four months of this year, 2019.

So this is a movie we've already seen a little bit. It could be different because this is a new National Guard. But this new National Guard, the laws, the legislation was only approved something like two or three months ago. In fact, this new National Guard does not yet really exist. It is only now being recruited, trained, et cetera.

So all of these decisions continue to be, I would say, more announcements than concrete facts. But they may be accelerated and perhaps they will have some effect.

BLACKWELL: All right. We'll see what the effect will be, if there is one. There is this 90 days of review that both countries have agreed to undergo. Former Foreign Minister from Mexico, Jorge Castaneda, thanks so much for joining us this morning.

CASTANEDA: Thank you.


PAUL: So if this last minute - the last night deal with Mexico averts that second front in the President's trade wars for the time being, the situation as you mentioned being reevaluated in three months and the President's ongoing dispute with China, well that's still a concern for investors.

So let's talk with analyst - get an analysis here from Rana Foroohar, she's Global Business Columnist and Associate Editor for the Financial Times and a CNN global economic analyst as well. Rana, always good to see you, thank you for being here. First and foremost, I want to get your reaction to what happened overnight with this deal. RANA FOROOHAR, GLOBAL BUSINESS COLUMNIST AND ASSOCIATE EDITOR AT FINANCIAL TIMES: Well, the good news is that this averts a 5 percent tariff rate which was going to go into effect on Monday and the markets will be glad about that. The problem is that the markets don't know whether to trust the President anymore.

I mean you have to look at this in the context of the last two years. We have seen so much back and forth, so much flipping. So we have a deal now with Mexico, but we have a three-month period in which the Mexicans have to agree to a variety of regulations, a variety of things that have been put into place.

It's unclear how that's going to happen. Are they going to be able to curb migration, are they going to be able to give these migrants jobs and social safety nets? These are difficult things. And so, you have that period of uncertainty for another three months. And at the end of that three months, you also are probably going to see some new news coming out of the China trade story.

Wilbur Ross, who's the Commerce Secretary, has been empowered to come up with a new list of Chinese technology companies that might be banned from doing business in the U.S. That'll be hitting at about the same time that the Mexican agreement should be coming to fruition.

What's going to happen, we don't know. The markets are going to remain very jittery because of that.

PAUL: I was going to - I was just going to ask if there is a connection between what happens with Mexico tariffs and what could happen in the trade talks with China.

[08:50:00] Are there still open talks going on with China?

FOROOHAR: There are. And both sides have a lot of reasons to make a deal. I mean, the Chinese economy is weakening. The U.S. growth story is probably going to get weaker in the next year. We're basically historically at the point where we probably should be having a recession.

The President has tried to prop up the markets in a variety of ways in order to keep them from falling and to try and keep the economy strong into 2020 to increase his own election prospects.

But I think that the problems between the U.S. and China are really big. They're not going to be solved in the next three months, probably not in the next two years, five years and not by this President with the way he's negotiated with the Chinese. The Chinese - I've spent a lot of time talking with Chinese investors. They feel that they've really lost faith. They feel that they've been embarrassed by this administration. They are really hunkering down for a long term trade war.

PAUL: So, what does that mean for companies here in the U.S., when they look at these trade wars and they look at obviously some progress that we think has been made here with Mexico, yet to be seen exactly how much solid stability it might actually bring. But is it a temporary stability to the markets right now, does it ease any of those concerns for companies who are very uncertain about where we are going?

FOROOHAR: Yes, a great question. So in an ideal world, if you're going to pick a fight with China, and there's some legitimate reasons to complain about China's trade practices, the U.S. all along would have been building tier alliances with Mexico, with Canada, with the Europeans, that's the way that you want to go after China - a China disagreement. You want to bring your allies closer.

A lot of companies have been considering moving some production back closer to home. Mexico would be an ideal place to put that cost-wise. But if companies feel, wait a minute we don't know what the situation is going to be between the U.S. and Mexico, that's going to make them reluctant to do that.

If this administration was being smart, they would make it very clear that they have a commitment to good trade relations and good immigrations relations with Mexico, that could actually encourage companies to move production closer to home and that could be good for the U.S. economy. But fighting on all fronts and making it unclear what's going to happen, markets don't like that, companies don't like that.

PAUL: All right. Rana Foroohar, always appreciate your perspective. Thank you for taking the time to be with us this morning.

FOROOHAR: Thank you.

PAUL: Absolutely. Victor?

BLACKWELL: There is a huge celebration in London celebrating Queen Elizabeth's birthday. We've just gotten our first glimpse of the Duchess of Sussex, since giving birth to her son, Archie. We'll show you in a moment.


PAUL: Look at this, Queen Elizabeth celebrating her birthday, because we all get a fireworks birthday, don't we?

BLACKWELL: I used to get a cheesecake, but okay.


PAUL: The annual Trooping the Color ceremony is what that was. She turned 93 in April, according to tradition, she's celebrating it today. But do you see who's on that balcony there with her?

BLACKWELL: Yes, can we see, do we have it?

PAUL: We do. It'll show up again here, hold on.

BLACKWELL: So there is moment with the royal family there - right on the right. She looks up, she looks right. That's the flyover at the parade this moment with the royal family in the balcony in their Buckingham Palace and Meghan the Duchess of Sussex was there, her first public engagement since the birth of her son, Archie.

PAUL: Happy birthday to the Queen, 93 years young.

BLACKWELL: 93 years young. Hey, more news straight ahead.

PAUL: Smerconish is next. We'll see you again next hour.


MICHAEL SMERCONISH, HOST, CNN: I'm Michael Smerconish in Philadelphia. Are Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by moving too far to the--