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U.S.-Iran Tensions; Writer Accuses Trump of Rape; Filthy Conditions at U.S. Border Facilities; Race for the White House. Aired 4-5a ET

Aired June 22, 2019 - 04:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[04:00:00]

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GEORGE HOWELL, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): The U.S. president says he is not looking for war with Iran. And although the military was ready to strike, he says he decided to call it off. We look into that.

Plus, at U.S. border detention facilities, a dramatic court hearing reveals filthy conditions and children taking care of babies.

Also ahead this hour, writing to Warren. We visit Elizabeth Warren's campaign headquarters to find out why so many people are writing her directly.

We're live from CNN headquarters in Atlanta. I'm George Howell, the CNN NEWSROOM starts now.

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HOWELL: At 4:00 am, the U.S. president Donald Trump is explaining his decision to call off strikes against Iran but then pull back on that decision on Twitter.

On Friday morning, he pointed out the shootdown of a U.S. drone, saying the U.S. was "cocked and loaded" to strike three Iranian missile sites in retaliation. Mr. Trump later told NBC he is willing to sit down with Iran's leader but also warned this --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm not looking for war and if there is there will be obliteration like you've never seen before. And I'm not looking to do that. But you can't have a nuclear weapon. You want to talk, good. Otherwise, you're going to have a bad economy for the next three years.

CHUCK TODD, NBC NEWS: Any preconditions?

TRUMP: Not as far as I'm concerned. No preconditions.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOWELL: The commander in chief's decision to attack and then pull back, it came as different advisers urged far different courses of action. Our Kaitlan Collins has this report from the White House.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TRUMP: I didn't think it was proportionate.

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Today, President Trump explaining his last- minute decision to call off his planned strike on Iran.

TRUMP: Nothing is green-lighted until the very end, because things change.

COLLINS (voice-over): Telling NBC News he stopped the retaliatory attack in the 11th hour after being told 150 people would likely die.

TRUMP: They came and they said, "Sir, we're ready to go. We'd like a decision."

I said, "I want to know something before you go. How many people will be killed?"

COLLINS (voice-over): It's information that commander in chief would typically get when being presented with military options.

TRUMP: I didn't like it. I didn't think it was -- I didn't think it was proportionate.

COLLINS (voice-over): But the president denied it was so-last minute the planes were already in the air.

TRUMP: No, but they would have been pretty soon. And things would have happened to a point where you wouldn't turn back or couldn't turn back.

COLLINS (voice-over): It's a decision that pits the president against his top advisers. Sources tell CNN secretary of state Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton both favored striking Iran, while outside advisers reminded him of his promise to get the U.S. out of wars, not in them.

In the end, Trump opted for restraint over retaliation, tweeting that sanctions are biting and more added last night. But what those sanctions will look like or when they will go into effect is still unclear. Some Republicans are against Trump's retreat...

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It will send a message that the red line may not be so red.

COLLINS (voice-over): -- while unlikely Democrats are praising the move.

REP. ADAM SCHIFF (D-CA), CHAIR, HOUSE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE: I don't think that people should be jumping down the president's throat for wanting to think this through and make sure that neither side miscalculates and we don't inadvertently end up in a war with Iran.

COLLINS (voice-over): Others said pulling back is a sign of the indecision in the West Wing.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He should not be saying stuff like that publicly, because it gives the impression of a level of indecision that I don't think is helpful to us.

COLLINS: The president announced in his tweet that the United States had imposed more sanctions against Iran Thursday night. But, based on our sourcing, there have been no new sanctions imposed against Iran and none announced by the Treasury Department.

Now Treasury Secretary Mnuchin did announce in a speech that, if Iran continues with its activity related to money laundering and terrorist financing, there will be additional countermeasures imposed.

But right now no new sanctions have been added. We asked the White House what is behind the president's false claim about these sanctions and so far they have not gotten back to us -- Kaitlan Collins, CNN, the White House.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOWELL: Iran quickly defended its actions, saying the United States, that drone that was shot down in Iranian airspace, and if the U.S. had carried out the strike against them, it would have triggered a very firm response.

On Friday, Iran displayed what it says is debris from that downed U.S. aircraft. Iran also says it sent warnings about the drone, which the United States ignored, and says it could have hit a manned U.S. aircraft nearby but chose not to.

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BRIG. GEN. AMIR ALI HAJIZADEH, ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS (through translator): Our colleagues at the army units issued warnings four times before we hit the drone. We had no other way but to stop it from advancing into our territory.

Now the U.S. lost one of the most expensive and advanced spy UAVs. Next to the UAV, an American spy airplane with 35 people on board was flying. We could have hit the manned aircraft as well and it was actually our right to shoot down that plane. But we did not do so.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOWELL: CNN is live in the region with our Sam Kiley on the story from the United Arab Emirates.

Good to have you with us.

Given what we've heard from the U.S. president so far about this strike that he says he called off, what is the reaction there throughout the region?

SAM KILEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, just in the last few hours, George, the foreign ministry spokesman of Iran has put out a statement, saying that whatever the decision-making processes may or may not have been in the White House -- and he's talking generally but rather specifically, if you see what I mean -- the Iranian position is absolutely clear.

They will take all defensive measures they can in response to any violation of their territory. So they are not issuing a thumbs up, much less a thank you to Donald Trump for not launching a military counterstrike but rather reiterating once again that any violation of their territorial integrity on the land, sea or in the air could and would be met with a violent response.

Now the issue is what next. Now on Monday, the U.N. Security Council is being asked to be convened by the United States, the United States calling for a closed session of the Security Council to discuss Iran on Monday.

And the regional allies of the United States have been interestingly quiet, apart from Saudi Arabia saying once again that they support the American campaign to get Iran to moderate its behavior.

One of the things in this region that makes people very anxious indeed about Iran's behavior over the longer term is not just its efforts that were suspended under the nuclear deal to develop a nuclear program and nuclear weapons program but also its influence on proxies, Hezbollah, South Lebanon, militias in Syria and Iraq and ,of course, the Houthis in Yemen, which gives Iran the capability to reach right deep into parts of the Middle East where they are not popular, part of the Shia-Sunni split, but also because Iran's forward leaning foreign policies that very often are activated through these militia groups.

And it is that sort of behavior that Iran could moderate very rapidly to send a signal to some of its rivals in the region that perhaps they do want to come back in from the cold.

HOWELL: All right. Sam Kiley with perspective and reporting. Thank you.

And now more context with Sanam Vakil, the senior consulting research fellow for the Middle East at Chatham House and joining us this hour from London.

Good to have you with us.

SANAM VAKIL, CHATHAM HOUSE: Thank you for having me.

HOWELL: So you heard the reaction there from the region with Sam Kiley's reporting.

What message would you say this sends to Iran, what message does it send to adversaries around the world?

VAKIL: Well, I think the message coming from Washington is that the president does not wish to engage directly with Iran. And they should be interpreting the signaling and the president's lack of military response as an act of deescalation. This has also been supported by repeated calls from the president himself for direct dialogue with the Iranians. It just might not be enough. And for the regional allies of the United States, this is, of course, very disconcerting because they are hoping that the U.S. president is going to defend their interests and defend a red line and they are very worried that an American president might make another deal with the Islamic Republic.

HOWELL: So from the big picture perspective, though, you have a U.S. president who seemed to be painted into a corner to act on the strike and risk war or not to act and signal to adversaries perhaps the U.S. will blink.

So what do you make of the suggestion that President Trump took this approach to have it both ways and come out the hero for calling it off?

VAKIL: Well, I think it has to be contextualized in the American domestic political climate. President Trump is gearing up for his re- election. He campaigned last --

[04:10:00]

VAKIL: -- time on drawing down from military involvement in the Middle East. And I think he is aware that military engagement with Iran could get out of hand.

And it is not necessarily in his interests or in the interests of his base to be escalating tensions. He has pursued this maximum pressure campaign in order to get Iran back to the negotiating table.

The problem is that the strategy hasn't been successful and thereby we are in this escalating cycle, where Iran is trying to push the president to give it some concessions before it can come back to that table.

HOWELL: And the reason the strike was called off, President Trump saying that he was told that 150 lives could be lost just a short time before the strike was to be executed, only after the president asked about that, mind you.

Several analysts have indicated it is hard to believe that the president wasn't briefed before the operation.

What are your thoughts about that?

VAKIL: Again, I think the president is trying to put himself forward as being the moderate in the room and playing sort of good cop against his advisers, who might be more hawkish.

And this is playing to his base but also playing to Tehran and trying to really message with them that, I'm trying to deescalate, please be pragmatic and rational here.

HOWELL: And you're pointing that out, Mr. Trump indicating several times in fact that he is open to negotiating with Iran without pre- conditions.

Do you get a sense that there is any interest on the part of Iran to engage with this president?

VAKIL: I think that the Iranians are really very much backed into a corner. And Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has made it clear a number of times that he is not going to come to the negotiating table with President Trump, particularly while they are under what they feel is economic warfare.

So there does have to be from Iran's perspective some sort of compromise, a face-saving solution, some form of sanctions relief to give Iran an off-ramp so that it can justify why it is renegotiating a deal that it was already maintaining compliance to.

HOWELL: Sanam Vakil, we appreciate your time for us. Thank you.

VAKIL: Thank you.

HOWELL: Tensions over the shot-down drone are creating real nightmares for air travel. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has banned U.S. flights over parts of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and the United Arab Emirates is ordering the country's airlines to avoid operating in dangerous areas altogether. Our Anna Stewart has more on that.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANNA STEWART, CNN CORRESPONDENT: An increasing number of airlines have now said they are diverting flights away from Iranian controlled airspace. These now include Qantas, Emirates, British Airways, KLM and Lufthansa. United Airlines suspended its service from Newark to Mumbai on Thursday.

The area in question is a narrow strip of airspace hugging the Iranian coastline over the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. And looking at flight data Friday, very few airlines could be seen flying over it, only Iranian really and Qatari operators.

And this adds to the already complex nature of aviation in the Middle East. Already airlines avoid flying over countries in conflict, such as Libya, Yemen, Syria and intercountry disputes also factor in.

For example Qatari operators cannot fly over Saudi Arabia's airspace and that leads them occasionally to make very lengthy, very costly diversions. And that is the problem for airlines here.

Diversions can be very expensive; more time in the air means more fuel and other operational costs. Of course these airlines just don't know how long tensions between the U.S. and Iran will impact flying in the region -- Anna Stewart, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOWELL: And as the Pentagon deals with Iran, it is about to see some big changes as well. President Trump plans to nominate Army Secretary Mark Esper to become the next Defense Secretary.

Mr. Trump had already tapped Esper to be acting Defense Secretary after Patrick Shanahan announced his resignation. Once officially nominated, Esper will have to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate.

A new accusation of sexual assault by the U.S. president. We'll hear what this author says Donald Trump did and his response to it.

Plus a group of doctors and lawyers report on what they have been told about conditions at a migrant detention facility across the southern part of the U.S. We'll hear what is going on there, shocking. Stay with us.

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HOWELL: We have tragic news to tell you about coming from Hawaii. Officials there say that nine people were killed Friday night, this when a small plane crashed near an airport on Oahu.

The plane was reportedly on a skydiving excursion when it crash-landed on a fence away from the runway. Hawaii's Department of Transportation says there were no survivors there. The Federal Aviation Administration is investigating what happened and we'll continue to follow this story and bring you developments.

Another woman has come forward, saying the U.S. president Donald Trump sexually assaulted her. In this case, it's a well-known American journalist and author, who says Mr. Trump attacked her at an upscale New York department store 23 years ago.

But the president has issued a strong denial, saying the woman just wants to sell another book. Our Jason Carroll has this.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: President Trump issuing a strong denial tonight against accusations he forced himself on author and advice columnist E. Jean Carroll at a department store in Manhattan more than 20 years ago.

Carroll raised the allegations in a just published "New York Magazine" article tied to the publication of her new book, "What Do We Need Men For? A Modest Proposal."

In an interview Friday with NBC News, Carroll described the incident.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) E. JEAN CARROLL, PRESIDENT TRUMP ACCUSER: I had a run-in with the president in a dressing room in Bergdorf's. I fought. It was shocking.

[04:20:00]

E. CARROLL: It was against my will.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

J. CARROLL: In the article, she writes, "The moment the dressing room door is closed, he lunges at me, pushes me against the wall, hitting my head quite badly, and puts his mouth against my lips."

She continues, "I am so shocked, I shove him back and start laughing. Again, he seizes both my arms and pushes me up against the wall a second time. And as I become aware of how large he is, he holds me against the wall with his shoulder and jams his hand under my coat dress and pulls down my tights."

He said, "I never met this person in my life and shame on those who make up stories of assault to get publicity for themselves or to sell a book or carry out a political agenda."

He continues, "No pictures, no surveillance, no video, no reports, no sales attendants around, I would like to thank them for confirming they have no video footage of any such incident because it never happened. False accusations diminish the severity of real assault."

Trump then asked for help, saying, "If anyone has information that the Democratic Party is working with Ms. Carroll or 'New York Magazine,' please notify us as soon as possible. The world should know what is really going on. It's a disgrace and people should pay dearly for false accusations."

Despite Trump saying they never met, Carroll published a picture showing her chatting with Trump in the 1980s. And "New York Magazine" says they reached out to Carroll's two friends who corroborated when they did disclose about that attack at the time.

Trump says the story is made up and "should be sold in the fiction section." He was taped during a 2005 "Access Hollywood," saying he liked to grab women by the private parts and adding, "When you're a star, they let you do it." CNN has reached out to Carroll but she has yet to respond -- Jason Carroll, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOWELL: Jason, thank you.

About 24 hours from now, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, better known as ICE, is set to arrest and deport people who have court ordered removals. Families in 10 cities are being targeted, about 2,000 people. But the leaders of the two cities say they won't cooperate. Houston's mayor says, quote, "The city does not try to do ICE's job

nor does it try to impede ICE and we will continue to be a city that builds relationships, not walls."

While another mayor says this, "The Chicago Police Department will not cooperate or facilitate any ICE enforcement actions. Chicago will always be a welcoming city and a champion for the rights of our immigrant and refugee communities."

In the meantime, migrants who have come to the United States are reportedly being held in filthy conditions. A group of doctors and lawyers visited Border Protection facilities.

They did not get to inspect them but they got to interview children there, who told them horror stories of everyone being sick and not having access to soap, not having access to showers. And that led to a court hearing. Our Nick Valencia has this report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, I find that inconceivable that the government would say that that is safe and sanitary.

NICK VALENCIA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A contentious court hearing on the awful conditions in which some child migrants are being held, conditions described by one inspector, who this week visited this Texas Border Patrol station, as "unconscionable," calling it a "pervasive health crisis," where toddlers are, quote, "left to fend for themselves," one walking around only in a diaper, another in a filthy onesie, teenagers not faring any better.

"Older kids are taking care of the babies," an inspector tells CNN, adding, "There does not appear to be childcare there."

CLARA LONG, HRW: It just makes me -- my heart hurt to think about what kind of lasting damage these experiences might have for these kids.

VALENCIA (voice-over): Before the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday, a Justice Department lawyer was put on the spot about those conditions.

JUDGE A. WALLACE TASHIMA, U.S. 9TH CIRCUIT COURT: It's within everybody's common understanding that if you don't have a toothbrush, if you don't have soap, if you don't have a blanket, it is not safe and sanitary.

Wouldn't everybody agree with that?

Do you agree with that?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, I think it's -- I think those are -- there's fair reason to find that those things may be part of safe and --

TASHIMA: Not maybe; are a part. (END VIDEOTAPE)

HOWELL: That was Nick Valencia reporting there for us there.

In a statement, in U.S. Customs and Border Protection says it has noted numerous times that its short term holding facilities are not designed to hold vulnerable populations and it urgently needs additional funding to manage this crisis. It says, all allegations of mistreatment are taken seriously and investigated.

Mexico and El Salvador have launched a new program aimed at slowing the flow of migrants. It provides work and economic stimulus to local communities to try to --

[04:25:00]

HOWELL: -- prevent people from moving north. Our Michael Holmes traveled to the Mexico-Guatemala border to show us what it's like for those living there, those trying to make that trip.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Mexican troops patrol the border with Guatemala to intercept migrants as Donald Trump promises mass deportations from the U.S.

And yet here in the town of Tapachula, the human faces behind the politics, entire families sleeping on the street and at the mercy of bureaucracy and politicians.

HOLMES: You've been here on the street for a week?

ELMER BINEDA, HONDURAN MIGRANT: For nine days today.

HOLMES: And when is your appointment to get your papers?

BINEDA: My appointment is on July 15.

HOLMES: So you have a month.

(CROSSTALK)

BINEDA: I'll be on the street because, yes, I have no choice. I got no money to pay a room.

HOLMES (voice-over): Elmer Bineda says he lived, worked and paid taxes in the U.S. for four years before being deported back to Honduras. But gang extortion and violence in his homeland sees him and his wife and daughter making the trek north again.

BINEDA: You know, like people threaten you, ah, I'm going to kill you if you don't do that.

So why?

I'd rather be here, living on the street over here, sleeping on the street and to change my situation, my life, you know.

HOLMES (voice-over): The migrants we meet here want the world to know they're not numbers, that they have names and lives that are being turned upside down, that they didn't want to leave their homes; it was that or risk death.

JUANA ISABEL GONZALEZ TREJO (through translator): I feel bad. I feel shattered to know how a country is, Honduras. I never thought that my country would ever be this way. I cry because of the situation that we're living here.

HOLMES (voice-over): We meet three generations of the Gonzalez Trejo family from Honduras, the youngest just 5 months old, all sleeping on the streets in the heat and the afternoon downpours for nearly a week. Their next immigration appointment, a month away.

GONZALEZ TREJO (through translator): If we can go to the United States, that would be good. But I don't know if they will give us the visa to continue or not.

HOLMES (voice-over): Juana Isabel's husband was murdered by the gangs. When her son-in-law refused to pay those same gangs, they fired shots into the bus he drove for a living.

"We left our country not because we wanted to," he says, "but because the situation is critical. Extortion, gangs. Any moment there is death. So we fled."

And this was the final straw, a note on the family's front door saying, "Leave within 24 hours or you all die."

And so here they are, on the sidewalk in a Mexican town, not knowing where they'll end up but knowing they can't go back.

GONZALEZ TREJO (through translator): I want help for my family. I don't want to be abandoned.

HOLMES (voice-over): Michael Holmes, CNN, Tapachula, Mexico.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOWELL: Given the tensions in the Middle East, many are asking the question, if the U.S. does go to war with Iran, what would it look like?

Why experts say it will not be like the war in Iraq.

Plus, how do the tensions with Iran and the backing down from an attack, how do they impact President Trump politically?

We'll look into that as CNN NEWSROOM continues.

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HOWELL: A warm welcome back to viewers in the United States and around the world. You're watching CNN NEWSROOM live from Atlanta. I'm George Howell with the headlines that we're following for you this hour.

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HOWELL: Returning now to our top story, President Trump's decision to call off an attack on Iran. It begs the question, what would a full fledged war look like with Iran?

CNN's international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson has this.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR (voice-over): The last time the U.S. went to war in the Middle East, Iraq 2003, this is what it looked like, shock and awe. The dictator felled in weeks, followed by years of terrorist insurgency.

A war with Iran won't be the same. It risks spreading to the whole region and fast. Here's why. Iran will fight an asymmetric war, use its network of regional proxies to target the U.S. and its allies far from Iran.

Shia militia in Iraq could target U.S. forces. Hezbollah in Lebanon could fire missiles on Israeli cities, as could Hamas from Gaza. Hezbollah and Shia militias in Syria could target U.S. forces there. Houthi rebels in Yemen could target U.S. and Saudi forces in Saudi and the UAE.

Even in Afghanistan, Iran has loyal fighters who could attack U.S. troops there. The U.S. would suddenly be threatened on many fronts far from Iran.

Iran would also use its conventional forces, currently close to 1 million service personnel, to target U.S. allies and bases in the region. Its navy would likely shut down vital oil shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, cutting the world from one-fifth of its energy supplies.

And Iran may very possibly fire missiles at Emirati and Saudi cities, as well as Israel, too, not to mention attack U.S. military bases --

[04:35:00]

ROBERTSON (voice-over): -- in Qatar, Saudi, the UAE, Iraq and even Afghanistan. Turning off this war would not be fast.

Iran is not small, nearly 2.5 times the size of Texas.

Remember Jimmy Carter's ill-fated 1980 helicopter mission to rescue the 52 U.S. hostages in Tehran? It has mountains and desert, think a combo of Iraq and Afghanistan,

searingly hot in the summer, sub-zero in the winter.

By every conventional metric, the U.S. will outgun Iran. Along with its allies, it should have the upper hand. But its Achilles' heel will be regional stability and the cost to the global economy. And that's what Iran is counting on -- Nic Robertson, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOWELL: Nic, thank you.

On Capitol Hill, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she was not given a heads-up that any attack was in the works but is happy that the U.S. president ultimately decided against it. The top Democrat says the United States must be clear what its interests are and she urged everyone to take a deep breath.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), HOUSE SPEAKER: What is our objective?

Where are our interests?

How do we define them?

That is broadly, as I'm hearing some define them in terms of other countries.

What are our interests?

How do we define our interests?

How do we engage our allies and how do we take actions which do not inflame the situation?

Deescalate, deescalate, deescalate. Take a deep breath and deescalate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOWELL: Mr. Trump's decision also drew mixed reaction from members of his own party, like Republican senator Lindsey Graham. He praised the move even though earlier he had called for aggressive action. This is what Graham said on Thursday hours before the reversal was reported. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): All I can tell you, if you're not willing to stand up to aggression, you're going to get hurt. This is an enemy of mankind. If you're not willing to take this enemy on, you'll regret it.

(END VIDEO CLIP) HOWELL: But then on Friday, Senator Graham had a different tone. In a tweet, he said, "I appreciate President Donald Trump's desire to be measured and thoughtful when it comes to Iranian provocations.

"What will be the response if they follow through to restart nuclear enrichment?

"I hope the United States will make this a red line."

Let's talk more about this now with Inderjeet Parmar, professor of international politics at City University, joining us this hour from our London bureau.

Good to have you.

INDERJEET PARMAR, CITY UNIVERSITY OF LONDON: Thank you. Good to be here.

HOWELL: So speaking of red lines here, you'll remember Mr. Trump criticized his predecessor, Barack Obama, for not following through with his red line in Syria. And now the president has some praise for his restraint, from saying -- from some who say he did act in the right way. He had restraint.

But he also has criticism from those who say that he blinked.

What are your thoughts?

PARMAR: I think to phrase it in that way is almost to goad President Trump into taking an action which will be reckless in the extreme.

But what we actually have here can be summarized at least a part of the whole matter of the Trump presidency. There is indecision. There is unpredictability and there's lots of division.

When we look at within the White House itself, there are forces which are much more hawkish and I think in this regard President Trump has shown uncharacteristically a little bit more restraint than John Bolton and Mike Pompeo and others, for example.

But what we have is division. That division is replicated right through the Congress as well, within the Republican Party and the Democrats. And on the Iran question in particular, the Democratic Party, of course, was the government which was the architect of the Iran nuclear agreement.

So we have a lethal mix of geopolitics and calculations on that front as well as party political calculations at home.

HOWELL: Let's talk about that more. So the secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, the president's national security adviser, John Bolton, and vice president Pence, they all pushed for the strike to your point.

But there was also a FOX News host which the president has been watching recently. You can tell that from Twitter who warned against attacking Iran. Do you think the president's decision in this very delicate matter

could have been guided here by a cable TV host?

PARMAR: Well, I suspect that a cable TV host would be a proxy for a broader analysis of the position that the United States is in --

[04:40:00]

PARMAR: -- and particularly President Trump. We'll recall that President Trump, candidate Trump campaigned on ending endless wars that liberals had started around the world, that there wasn't going to be meddling in the Middle East and he didn't want American soldiers to be dying and killing far away.

And I think a large part of his electorate also is behind that kind of idea as well as a broader electorate within the United States as well. There isn't really an appetite nationally speaking and even within party politics broadly for a new war in the Middle East.

So as we approach 2020, we know President Trump does not take his eye off the next election. As we approach 2020, he is taking a big party political calculation here, too. That is his large part of his base does not want to be engaged in this particular war, yet he is in this position that he has put himself in.

He fabricated the Iran nuclear agreement, now he wants Iran to re- enter that agreement and not enrich uranium. He is in a real mess and that mess is largely of his own making and I think that it will count heavily against him if the Democrats play their cards right going into the next election.

HOWELL: So the president has signaled that he is open to engaging with Iran.

Do you think there is any interest among Iranians to engage with this president?

Or is the plan to keep up the pressure and to effectively wait him out?

PARMAR: Well, I think that there has to be an appetite in the end for a negotiation. Neither side actually truly I think wants to go to war for all the reasons that your correspondent said.

I would add to his reasons that the fact that China is much more heavily engaged in the Middle East, including in Iran, through its cultural diplomatic and other ties, as is Russia. So what we are talking about here is not just Iran versus the United States and its allies but Iran and some of its allies being dragged in as well.

So what we have is a powder keg in the Middle East and I think both sides have to come to the table. But the problem is that President Trump is indecisive, he is unpredictable and his administration is divided.

He's already violated -- or withdrawn from an agreement which was already working and now he wants Iran to go back to that agreement and abide by it. I don't think Iran can really truly trust this particular president.

But I would say the last 40 years of American presidents have been fairly unreliable on that front, too. So I think that they will be prepared for a military confrontation and this crisis will simmer along.

And I suspect in the longer run with the plans that Trump's announced for more troops in that area, I think that there will be a bolstering of American forces. So I don't think this crisis is going to pass. It may simmer for a while because of electoral reasons. But it seems to be setting itself up for kind of long term continuation.

HOWELL: Inderjeet Parmar, we appreciate your time and perspective. Thank you.

PARMAR: Thank you.

HOWELL: Americans are opening up to one of the Democratic presidential candidates and they are sending her a lot of mail you see there, a lot of letters. We'll see what they have to say next. Stay with us.

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[04:45:00]

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HOWELL: The 2020 Democratic presidential candidates are spending the weekend in the state of South Carolina, where one of the biggest campaign events is taking place. On Friday, 21 of the 24 Democratic candidates came together at the so-called fish fry, that event hosted by Representative Jim Clyburn, the senior black lawmaker in Congress.

It gives the candidates a chance to measure their support among African American voters.

Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren has been rising in the polls as well and she is getting a lot of mail from her supporters. CNN political correspondent MJ Lee visited her campaign headquarters to find out what people are writing.

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MOLLY DORIS-PIERCE, WARREN CAMPAIGN CONSTITUENCY OUTREACH DIRECTOR: The most time-consuming part of the mail is opening the mail.

MJ LEE, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For Molly Doris- Pierce, this is how she spends most of her mornings.

LEE: Where are they coming from?

DORIS-PIERCE: All over the place, across the country.

LEE (voice-over): As Elizabeth Warren's constituency outreach director, she is tasked with opening the dozens of letters that arrive here at the senator's campaign headquarters in Boston.

DORIS-PIERCE: And then they listed out campaign finance reform, automatic voter registration, protecting and saving the environment.

LEE (voice-over): Many handwritten on pages ripped out of notebooks or handmade postcards, sometimes no more than a few words on a Post-it note. And they mostly end up on this wall.

DORIS-PIERCE: We get a lot of health care, we get a lot of the environment, just the basic issues that are on people's minds and this is what's motivating me. This is what I'm thinking about.

You can feel the economic anxiety that they are having. Like we get a lot of people who say, I'm on a fixed income, so this is all I can give but I really believe in you.

LEE (voice-over): The policy-driven candidate has been rising in the polls, catching up to her progressive rival, Bernie Sanders. These letters offering a glimpse of Warren's decisions and ideas that appear to have resonated most with voters this year.

"I love that you're the first to call for an impeachment inquiry."

LEE (voice-over): Numerous notes like one, agreeing with her call for impeachment proceedings against President Trump in April. Others putting pen to paper after she released a major student loan debt forgiveness plan.

SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: "I'm writing to share my student loan story with you. There's so much I'd like to say but since I just got paid and sent off my $806 payment for my student loan, I'll focus on (INAUDIBLE)."

LEE (voice-over): But sometimes there's a letter that has nothing to do with politics or policy.

DORIS-PIERCE: This is my favorite. It's a birth announcement and the baby's name is Elizabeth and it says, "Child named after our future president."

This one is definitely making the wall.

LEE (voice-over): MJ Lee, CNN, New York.

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HOWELL: Up next, some rain but very little relief. Millions of people are running out of water. Look at that. The latest on India's water crisis.

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HOWELL: Even though monsoon rains have started to fall across southern India, a long-term freshwater crisis remains for many people.

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HOWELL: We end this hour with the British pop music icon, Sir Elton John, he has received the Legion of Honor award from French president Emmanuel Macron, that medal is France's highest honor. President Macron presented it to the singer and AIDS activist in private before Elton John addressed the crowd at the presidential palace.

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SIR ELTON JOHN, POP MUSIC ICON: Like music, the fight against AIDS has been my passion for many, many years. And like music, this fight reminds me every day of the extraordinary power of the human spirit and the things that bind us are stronger than those that divide us.

It is its magical human spirit I will carry with me as a proud member of the Legion d'honneur.

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HOWELL: The things that bind us are stronger than those that divide. That's a good message. Thanks for being with us. Another hour of NEWSROOM right after the break. Stay with us.