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CNN Poll Shows Sen. Kamala Harris (D) California And Elizabeth Warren (D) Massachusetts Rise, Biden Slides After Debates; Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) South Bend, Indiana On Lack Of African-American Support, I Have To Earn Trust; Sen. Bernie Sanders (D) Vermont Raised $18 Million In Second Quarter; Russia And China Urge Iran To Show Restraint. Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired July 02, 2019 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[10:00:00]

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN NEWSROOM: A very good morning to you. I'm Jim Sciutto. Poppy Harlow is off today.

What a difference a debate makes, Joe Biden slipping while Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren are surging. A new CNN poll shows Biden's lead narrowing to just five points after the first democratic debates. That's a ten-point loss from the month before.

But on the other side of the ledger, Harris and Warren are surging, proving their strong debate performance registered with voters who were watching the debates.

For a closer look at the numbers, let's bring in CNN Senior Political Analyst Mark Preston in Washington. And, Mark, really, what happened here is you have Biden dropping, both Warren and Harris jumping, and that narrows that margin down to something very thin.

MARK PRESTON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: It's certainly does. I mean, it really does show you that these debates matter even when you have ten people on stage each night. But as you said, Biden collapses by ten points at the same time that you have Warren and Harris inching up almost ten points.

But where is that erosion with Joe Biden? You might be surprised. Let's take a look amongst his erosion right here. He still has strong support with African-American voters. In fact, he has 12 points advantage over Kamala Harris. Where he is losing ground though, certainly in this poll, was with white college educated voters. Look how close that is right there, Jim, as opposed to over here.

So Joe Biden, even though he got into the dust-up with Kamala Harris over the idea of federal busing back in the '70s and how they disagreed over that, African-American voters are still with Joe Biden.

But here we go, who is best to handle race relations? Well, clearly, coming out of that debate, Kamala Harris is at 29 percent. That can only help her with the African-American community moving forward, Jim.

SCIUTTO: What issues are driving voters from this poll, because there's often a disconnect between what's talked about, what's Tweeted about and what most voters actually care about?

PRESTON: Right. So let's talk about pragmatism to ideological purity. In the end right now, six in ten democrats want to beat Donald Trump. That is the number one thing for them right now. Otherwise, nothing else gets done. But if you flip that and you move on and you look at who has the best chance to beat Donald Trump when it comes to a specific candidate at this point, it continues to be Joe Biden. What that's fueled by is support not only from liberals but also conservative and moderate democrats, Jim.

SCIUTTO: All right. Mark, stand by, there's more to break down here. But, first, I want to discuss some of what we learned. Molly Ball, National Political Correspondent for Time, and Astead Herndon-, he's National Political Reporter for The New York Times.

Molly Ball, first, just use your analyst hat here for a moment. When you look at the Biden numbers and the Warren/Harris surge, does that look like a snapshot post-debates to you or a part of a trend?

MOLLY BALL, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: It's a snapshot for now and this is going to be the question, right? The question is those voters that are moving on from Joe Biden, because Joe Biden had that early lead sort of sight unseen, and now that voters, democratic primary voters are taking a look at him.

The question is are they turning their back on him? Did they see something in those debates that made them go, no, not going to look at Joe Biden anymore, or is this a temporary fling? Are they just kind of shopping around?

What you hear when you talk to democratic primary voters is that they very much are shopping around. They're very interested in a lot of candidates. These debate performances are super helpful for people to try to get an impression, and obviously we saw those two women candidates make the strongest impression, get the most out of that debate opportunity.

But I think those voters who are migrating for now probably aren't settled yet, because it is so early, because there's so long to go, because there are going to be more debates. The question is going to be can, particularly Warren and Harris, maintain the support of those people, encourage more people to move in their direction, capitalize on that momentum and can Biden turned it around?

SCIUTTO: Astead, the numbers for Buttigieg, and one of our analysts in the last hour said very directly, you can't win the democratic nomination without African-American support, and Pete Buttigieg polling at zero among African-American voters in our latest poll.

We had a reaction just a couple moments ago from Mayor Pete. Have a listen. I want to get your reaction.

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MAYOR PETE BUTTIGIEG (D-IN): Look, when you're new on the scene and you're not from a community of color, you've got to work much harder in order to earn that trust, because trust is largely a function of quantity time. I'm committed to doing that work. But I think the most important question is will our policy benefit black Americans and all Americans. And if that happens, and if I can show that, I think the politics will start to take care of themselves.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: Realistic?

ASTEAD HERNDON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I mean, it's certainly what we expect from him. I mean, Mayor Pete has had real success, certainly with big fundraising numbers and with white college educated voters. But as you said, that's not enough to win a democratic primary.

[10:04:59]

This is a candidate who is largely asserted himself on the national scene through kind of elite media, through kind of a wonkiness or a kind of reference with elite spaces, Howard McKenzie (ph) kind of background, and you have to wonder if that is going to translate or if that is a baked-in perception that is going to be very hard for him to overcome.

It's not just enough to talk about, oh, my policies benefit black Americans and eventually they'll get that. You have to be able to go to those communities and gain that trust. And we haven't necessarily seen that happen. Even when some of these white candidates go to South Carolina, we sometimes talk about them as if they are black events. But I've been to many South Carolina events where they're still drawing particularly white audiences in that state.

And so these candidates have to go above and beyond to make their case to that community and to kind of give that community a reason to trust them.

SCIUTTO: Yes, that's really a low floor come off of. Listen, stay with us. I want to get your reactions to more numbers.

Back with me now is Mark Preston. So, Mark, tell us what we're seeing in the poll when it comes to how candidates are polling on the key voting issues in this cycle.

PRESTON: Right. Well, it certainly comes down to the issues when you try to distinguish yourself. When you look at it now and, again, let's go back to where we are at this moment in time. Why is Joe Biden doing so well? Well, he's doing so well because democrats right now think that he is best to handle the economy on their behalf. When it comes to healthcare, Bernie Sanders, who, of course, has been pushing healthcare since he started running back in 2015, he's number one. But Biden comes in number two. And on the issue of climate change, which is an issue that democrats continue to talk more and more and more about, Joe Biden is in first place as well. So the issues do matter.

But it's not only just the issues. What else happens here when it comes specifically to healthcare? Should there be a national healthcare program and should you eliminate private insurance? This is a big point of contention amongst the democratic candidates right now. Only 30 percent believe that you should replace private plans. Guess what? Half of Americans want to be able to keep their private plans if they have it. And, of course, only 13 percent oppose a national program at this point, Jim.

But should the government provide national healthcare, even if it's going to mean higher taxes in the end, 56 percent of Americans believe so, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Mark Preston, thanks very much. Let's get back to our experts for a moment.

Molly, so health insurance always comes top of the polls as a voting issue. One of the key questions, of course, is a national health insurance plan, but does that eliminate the employer-provided plans that so many people are dependent on? You had that raise your hand moment in the debate and most of the candidates said they would eliminate that. Is that a good look for democratic candidates going into this going into 2020?

BALL: Going into the general election, it may not be. As you said, this is not a popular position among the general electoral. Though I believe those numbers that we were looking at were not all Americans, were just potential democratic primary voters. And there's where you see that this does have a lot more support.

But it's interesting that it is still not even the plurality position of democratic primary voters to eliminate private insurance, as many of those candidates said they would favor doing. So this was the subject of some of the more substantive discussion that really took place in those debates and I think voters want to hear more of the candidates' reasoning on all of these issues.

But, you know, you had that number that we showed earlier, 60 percent of democratic voters are much more concerned with beating Trump than anything else. I think these issues, these policy issues are somewhat secondary to people. They really just are concerned with electability.

And what you hear when you talk to democratic primary voters, a lot of them say, I think any of these candidates would do a better job with the economy, with healthcare, with any issue you want to name than the current President. They just want to make sure that that candidate is going to be able to win.

SCIUTTO: That is a uniting issue among democratic voters, right, and the best chance to beat Trump.

But maybe, listen, we talk a lot about Biden, Astead, but the other story, the other end of the ledger, right, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren jumping here. When you look at them, I mean, you have a really clear top tier in this race now, do you not?

HERNDON: I think you do. And I think the important thing when we think about the jump was the question of electability. Vice President Biden had been making his case to democratic voters kind of based off of the notion that, one, that he was best to beat Trump, but he was kind of above the fray in the Democratic Party, that he did not really need to really engage with those other candidates because he had a command, a mastery, a familiarity with voters that those other candidates could not match.

And what that debate stage did was kind of erode that on that first night. Elizabeth Warren really kind of stood out from the crowd along with Secretary Castro. And on that second night with that direct confrontation with Senator Harris, she is able to erode the question that Vice President Biden is somehow above the fray.

And so you saw the numbers kind of reflect that with Harris and Warren, not just going up in the overall poll but going up in that question of electability and kind of moving voters more emotionally to the point where they feel like those candidates are also electable.

[10:10:03]

Let me say one more thing about Biden. A worry for him should be that his numbers are being propped up by black voters at this point. And we know in those first two early states, it is still overly white, Iowa and New Hampshire, that will determine the most viable candidate before you head into South Carolina. So we could be in that kind of Hillary Clinton 2007 situation.

SCIUTTO: All right. Molly and Astead, thanks so much. A lot to break down this morning.

Still to come this hour, China now blaming the U.S. for escalating tensions with Iran. We will have the latest.

Plus, it's a race against time as the U.S. Embassy says the condition of an American detained in Russia is worsening. We're going to speak with the brother of the prisoner.

And presidential candidate, Senator Cory Booker unveils a sweeping new immigration plan and he says he does not need any help from Congress. The Senator is going to join us just ahead.

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SCIUTTO: This is just into the Newsroom. The Bernie Sanders campaign has released its fundraising haul for the second quarter, a total $24 million. CNN Political Reporter Rebecca Buck joins us now.

Rebecca, were they happy with this figure? I mean, it struck me as interesting because it was right on par with Pete Buttigieg for that quarter. REBECCA BUCK, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: That's right. Although, Jim, this $24 million figure, we understand, includes a $6 million transfer from another account, so that wasn't money that Bernie Sanders raised this quarter, but he has to use in this campaign, so it's still useful for him.

But $18 million is about on par with his first quarter fundraising. It shows the enthusiasm for Bernie Sanders and his candidacy is consistent, not necessarily growing. Certainly, he's going to have enough money though to compete in this race, to move forward and be in this race for a long time.

But I want you to listen to something his campaign manager said explaining why Bernie Sanders was not going to raise as much as Pete Buttigieg.

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FAIZ SHAKIR, SANDERS CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Bernie Sanders does not go into closed-door high dollar fundraisers and solicit money from corporate executives at their homes. That's a choice he's decided to make because he believes that you need a grass roots campaign to fundamentally change the policies that afflict working Americans.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BUCK: And so you have to think, Jim, that there is some guy you added on the political side, as we've seen with Elizabeth Warren as well, for not taking that money from big donors, not having the closed-door fundraisers, basically standing on principle. And it's consistent with what Bernie Sanders has promoted as a candidate consistent with his brand. And so they're giving up potential money from these bigger donors in exchange for being able to say, we're standing firm on ideology here, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Well, as you know better than me, campaigns like to spin these fundraising numbers. I mean, is that a fair explanation from their point? Bernie Sanders nearly won the democratic nomination four years ago. And now in that quarter, you know, significantly way behind Pete Buttigieg, who is far behind him in the polling.

BUCK: Yes, absolutely. I mean, it is spin, but it's true that they're leaving money on the table voluntarily.

The one thing I will point out is that you would expect with the debate especially, which was a huge amount of exposure for all of these candidates, and we've seen the fundraising surges that they've had as a result. And, really, from small dollar online fundraising, Kamala Harris raising millions of dollars in the aftermath, Cory Booker raising $1 million in the week after the debate. You would expect that Bernie Sanders would see a similar surge.

And so the question is why didn't he raise more money this quarter than he did in the first quarter when there wasn't a debate, when there wasn't that level of exposure? And he's been drawing this very explicit contrast to Joe Biden and some of the more moderate candidates in this race. Why didn't he see a surge in the aftermath of those sort of attacks on these other candidates?

And so that's going to be a question, I think, Bernie Sanders will need to answer. Does he have momentum in this race or is he just consistent? Jim.

SCIUTTO: Yes, and being overshadowed by some of the other progressive candidates. Rebecca Buck, great to have you on the story, thanks very much.

BUCK: Thank you.

SCIUTTO: The health of an American jailed in Russia is getting worse and he is not getting the treatment he needs, that warning this morning from the U.S. Embassy in Moscow. I'm going to speak with Paul Whelan's brother about his condition. That's next.

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Today, both Russia and China are calling on Iran to show restraint, this after Iran announced that it has increased its stockpile of low- grade enriched uranium, therefore, violating the nuclear deal. Russia's top diplomat, Sergey Lavrov, is urging Tehran to stick with the guidelines of that 2015 agreement that President Trump, we should note, pulled the U.S. out of two years ago. Meanwhile, the Chinese Foreign Ministry seem to be blame the United States for putting pressure on Iran.

Former House Intelligence Chairman and CNN National Security Analyst, Mike Rogers, joins me now. Congressman, always good to have you on the show.

MIKE ROGERS, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Hey, thanks, Jim.

SCIUTTO: So, listen, I know the president's dissatisfaction with the Iran deal, you and others have made criticisms about it, but the fact is Iran was in a deal that limited its ability, really held back its ability to make a nuclear weapon. The President pulls the U.S. out of the deal, applies more pressure to get, in effect, more out of the deal, and now, Iran has pulled out of the deal. I mean, what was the Trump administration policy accomplished?

ROGERS: Yes. And just to be clear, I opposed the deal as it originally started, but I also didn't think it was a good idea to pull out of the deal unilaterally. I just thought there were other leverage points. And one of the reasons, by the way, Jim, is this exact one. They left all the material and capability to actually enrich uranium, and would have enough capability to go up to weapons grade, and they have it and that's a part of the deal.

[10:25:01]

I just thought that was a terrible idea.

That being said, I think what the United States ought to be doing now is camped out in Europe to try to get Europe to help us through this problem set.

It was -- and I think the reason the Iranians are doing it now is to try to split the Europeans and the U.S. further apart on this. Remember, the Europeans wanted to stay in the deal, didn't like that the U.S. pulled out of the deal. And so I think that's what you're seeing Iran do. And that's why they announced it in this way, just subtle enough they're going to break that roughly 3 percent enrichment to try to drive that wedge.

So, again, if I were the Trump administration, I would have folks camped out in Europe trying to come up with a solution to get this thing back in the box as soon as possible. Otherwise, you're just going to see a continued split. Europe is going to have to join in. I'm not sure that's the best outcome. There could be some positives there, but not --

SCIUTTO: How does the administration address the inconsistency here, particularly now that we're that the Trump administration is considering a freeze for North Korea's nuclear program? I mean, you had a freeze on Iran's nuclear program before it developed a weapon with this deal. Under this approach to North Korea, you would put a freeze on its nuclear program after it already has an estimated 20 to 60 nuclear weapons. How does the Trump administration address that inconsistency or even get North Korea to believe they would abide by the deal?

ROGERS: Yes. And I'm not as confident that they've gotten that far. I think the reason that Trump went to the South Korean/North Korean border was to just kick off talks, which is a pretty high price to pay for the President of the United States. They have to show up to get -- just to keep them engaged in the discussions.

So there's been no deal done. I mean, I hope there is. I hope this is a new tactic that works. I'm a little skeptical that the President uses his time, talent and energy on the border, crosses into North Korea just to continue the talks. To me, that is not a good get for that relationship. However, it stopped us from shooting at each other. That gets high marks.

Back to how they justify it, though, Jim, just real quickly, I don't think they can. I mean, the North Korean program is where it's at and it started under -- well, before Obama, it continued under Obama and it continued under Trump candidly, its development. And by the way, it continues under it today. So they're going to have to find a different solution.

SCIUTTO: A lot of blame to go around. And keep in mind, I mean, both Bush and Clinton tried a freeze agreement with North Korea. Of course, the North Koreans cheated, as you well know.

ROGERS: Absolutely.

SCIUTTO: Before we go, I want to ask you because, of course, we have July 4th coming up in a couple of days. The president has long wanted a military style parade. The Pentagon didn't give him tanks rolling down Pennsylvania Avenue as he wanted, but they have now given him tanks which are going to be parked there, But there's also going to be a flyover, et cetera. You know, you've been involved with military issues for a long time. Is this a proper use for the U.S. military?

ROGERS: As a veteran myself, I'll tell you the most important 4th of July parades that are going to happen in America are happening in small town where local veterans from World War II that can still ride in the parade or walk, or Korea or Vietnam will be at the head of these columns. And people will stand up and give them their standing applause. And I've seen it a thousand times over my time in politics. To me, those are the most important, and I hate to take away from those.

A big parade in Washington, D.C., okay, but the most important thing we can do is celebrate America, its independence, its growth. It's an amazing place. Believe me, if you get around the world, America is still an amazing place. That's where you want to stand up and celebrate the greatness of the United States and our ability to control our own destiny.

SCIUTTO: All right, agreed. Mike Rogers, thanks very much.

ROGERS: Thanks.

SCIUTTO: The brother of an American detained in Russia for six months says that releasing him would help improve U.S./Russia relations. I'm going to speak to Dave Whelan about his brother's deteriorating medical condition in a Russian prison and the fight now to free him.

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