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Great White Shark Tracked Off New Jersey Coast; "The Movies" Airs Sunday At 9 P.M. On CNN; Biden Down, Harris Up In Post-Debate Polls. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired July 4, 2019 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


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(SPORT)

[06:37:28] JOHN AVLON, CNN HOST: All right. But first, thousands heading to the Jersey shore for the holiday weekend. You too.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN HOST: A thousand plus one.

AVLON: Right. Do you know who else is going to do that?

CAMEROTA: Who's that?

AVLON: A great white shark. What we know about where it's swimming this morning next.

CAMEROTA: Yes. I think we should know exactly where.

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[06:41:38] AVLON: Beach goers beware. You're thinking about taking a dip along the Jersey shore this holiday weekend.

CAMEROTA: I am thinking about that.

AVLON: I gather that. Ali, you may have a shark to contend with.

CAMEROTA: Sharks live in the ocean. I don't understand why this is so news worthy, please go on.

AVLON: Look, this is an 800-pound great white shark, which is which is apparently not even that big. It's been tracked up the New Jersey coast and CNN's Miguel Marquez live in Ocean City, New Jersey with more. Shark adjacent.

CAMEROTA: Where is this thing, Miguel?

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Well, it's somewhere out there. It pinged off ashore here. Yesterday was the last time. Look, it is gorgeous here right now and it's business as usual here in Ocean City, which is no business at all other than fishing and surfing and alike.

But I'm glad you said that Alisyn, that there are sharks in the water. Clearly, it is ocean and this is the difference between knowing that sharks live in the ocean and knowing that a specific one is nearby. So Miss May is an 800-pound great white shark.

This group OCEARCH tagged it in February and then they've been following it up the coast and it pinged off of the shore of New Jersey in the last couple of days. Yesterday about 15 miles from where we're standing right now. Some people are a little nervous. They want to know where that next ping is. Is the shark moving toward the shore or is it moving out to sea.

There have been many, many shark sightings over the last couple of months, but last year in total, for instance, there was only 130 shark/human interpretations worldwide and only four of those resulted in death. So with the millions of us on the beach, and a few thousand sharks in the water, we probably stand a pretty good chance. And you also, by the way, Alisyn, you have a better chance of getting killed by lightening, fireworks, heart disease or stroke, all things that could happen on Fourth of July weekend.

CAMEROTA: Wow.

MARQUEZ: Than getting killed by a shark.

CAMEROTA: Thanks a lot, Miguel. I don't know if I feel any better.

(CROSSTALK)

CAMEROTA: But that is a shark reality check. But I understand they've tracked it up from Florida, from the Coast of Florida. So I mean I guess my question is, what's it doing in New Jersey, is it looking for me?

AVLON: Yes.

MARQUEZ: Yes, it is.

CAMEROTA: OK.

MARQUEZ: It has your name written on its forehead.

CAMEROTA: Thank you. I feel like ...

AVLON: I just want to put out, Miguel, you're in very shallow water.

CAMEROTA: Yes. Next live, we want to see you out there.

MARQUEZ: Should I go deeper?

CAMEROTA: There you go. God, it looks nice.

MARQUEZ: I'm just here sticking a toe, a metaphorical toe in the water.

CAMEROTA: Miguel, it looks great. It really, really looks great. Thank you so much. We'll check back to make sure you are safe. All right. Meanwhile, she did it again, 15-year-old Coco Gauff advances at Wimbledon. The next step for this tennis phenom.

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[06:50:02] AVLON: All right. From the first solid film to current blockbusters, the history of American cinema sometimes beautiful, occasionally controversial. But always inspiring. This Sunday night, our CNN original series "THE MOVIES" delves deeper into the stories behind the movies you love.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RON HOWARD, DIRECTOR: There is still something about being told a story. A movie is something that's been really handcrafted. It's a mosaic that's been carefully pieced together. It just creates this opportunity to totally lose yourself.

MARTIN SCORSESE, DIRECTOR: These images live in our consciousness. Stays in our minds the way music is recalled in our heads. Those images replay and we live our lives by them.

JULIA ROBERTS, ACTOR: It brings all the elements of all of our senses together. There's really nothing else like it.

JON FAVREAU, ACTOR: Even though you're doing something incredibly personal, and in many ways incredibly selfish because you're doing something you love so much. And then it gets out there in the world, and it could change people's trajectories.

ALEC BALDWIN, ACTOR: When you can go somewhere that you can pretty much guarantee you're going to be able to set your worries aside for that period of time, it's like a drug. It's like a drug.

HOLLY HUNTER, ACTOR: It's just s direct conduit straight into your soul.

MORGAN FREEMAN, ACTOR: I grew up wanting to be the movies. It was all about the movies.

BAZ LUHRMANN, DIRECTOR: Since the dawn of man, we like to get around a fireplace and commune in story together. So we can feel, for a few hours, that we're human together.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: It looks so great, doesn't it?

AVLON: So many great clips, I love it. Be sure to tune in THE MOVIES, premieres this Sunday night at 9:00 Eastern. We'll be right back.

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[06:55:57] AVLON: All right. New 2020 polls conducted after last week's debates have one thing in common, how candidates perform in big debates really matter. So who's up, who's down, "THERE'S SOMETHING ABOUT HARRY."

CAMEROTA: There really is something about Harry this morning.

AVLON: Especially today, everybody.

CAMEROTA: You are feeling it. You are as patriotic. Well, OK.

AVLON: I love the flag.

CAMEROTA: I don't know what you're doing with half flag.

AVLON: Half Yankee symbol, which I know Harry loves and how about it, Harry? I dig it.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN POLITICS SENIOR WRITER AND ANALYST: I just love this country. I love America. I love the flag.

AVLON: As we all do. As we all do.

CAMEROTA: We can see that. All right.

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AVLON: All right. Let's look at the number.

ENTEN: All right. All right.

AVLON: Let's look at the numbers.

ENTEN: Here we go. Here we go. OK. OK. OK.

AVLON: All right.

ENTEN: So let's take a look. There are three national polls that came out this week and I separated them out. So we have ABC News Washington Post, we have the CNN poll, we have the Quinnipiac University poll. And you can see that there is some slight differences across them.

So Biden is up at 30 percent in the ABC News poll but only at 22 percent in both the CNN and Quinnipiac poll. Harris up from where she was but only at 13 percent in the ABC News poll, 17 percent in CNN and 20 percent on the Quinnipiac poll. And Sanders who's running in fourth in both the CNN and the Quinnipiac polls is all the way up at 19 percent and second to Biden in the ABC News poll. So we have some differences across these different polls.

AVLON: All right. So my friend, which one is the outlier? Which one of these is not like the others?

CAMEROTA: Which one is right?

ENTEN: Which one is the outlier, which one is not like the other? I'm certainly not like the others. But ...

AVLON: This is true. It's not just a fact. ENTEN: ... that's very true.

AVLON: Yes.

ENTEN: So I think something that we always lose mind of is the fact that there is a margin of error. And margins of error matters in polls. So if we were to look here, look, the ABC News-Washington Post poll has a margin of error of plus or minus six points. The CNN polls, plus or minus five points. Quinnipiac at 22 percent, plus or minus five points.

All of these polls are within the margin of error, the average. So when you average all of these polls, you get to 25 percent. And this is important and I'm not sure this is necessarily point out so much. We should expect this type of variation. This is actually a good thing. It'd be bad if all of these polls were the same, because look pollsters are not magicians.

Polls are tools. They are supposed to get you in the rough neighborhood. They're not necessarily supposed to be exactly right and these polls are generally what you'd expect if we're actually following science.

CAMEROTA: OK. Science, what has shifted?

AVLON: Yes, I appreciate that.

ENTEN: Yes. So I think if we were to basically put all of this together and we took an average of the pre-debate polls based on polling two weeks prior to the debate and then an average of the three polls we just spoke about, what do we see? We see on average, yes, Biden is definitely down. He's down five points. If we were to look at Harris, she's definitely up. She's up 10 points.

But interestingly enough, Sanders is actually down two, Buttigieg is also down three from seven to four, Elizabeth Warren about stagnant.

AVLON: This is the one that cuts through all of the noise. This is the signal through the noise. That's fascinating.

ENTEN: That's exactly right. This is why you take averages of polls because sometimes they're outliers and this cuts out the outliers.

AVLON: Great.

CAMEROTA: OK. What about redo?

ENTEN: Well, I just want to point out, everyone is talking about how poorly Biden has done post-debate. But Bernie Sanders, I think we sometimes lose track of this, so I went back and look at basically runners up the previous time around and looked at where they were the second time they are running in the national polling at this point in the election cycle.

And when the former runner up is leading in the national polls at this point, they've gone on to win the nomination five out of five times. But when they are trailing like Bernie Sanders is in all of the polls, even in his best poll he's still 11 points behind Joe Biden, they've only won one out of eight times, 13 percent. So if I'm the former - excuse me, if I'm the former runner up, if I'm the senator from Vermont, I'm not exactly sure I'll look at these polls and say, "This is good for me."

CAMEROTA: That's really interesting.

AVLON: That's a tough one. That's fascinating.

ENTEN: Yes.

CAMEROTA: All right. Fourth of July, Harry.

ENTEN: Fourth of July, you know what, folks, I'm out of here. I'm going up to my mom's house. Hi, mom. I'll see you soon. Look at this, this is what we're having. We're having fried chicken. We're having corn on the cob. I'm going to sit by the pool. There are going to be three dogs there. It's going to be a lovely time.

But my question to you two is what are you having?

CAMEROTA: Oh, to eat?

ENTEN: Yes.

AVLON: Yes.

CAMEROTA: Oh, total Fourth of July food. Hotdog, I guess, I would say is my favorite.

AVLON: (Inaudible).

CAMEROTA: For Fourth of July.

AVLON: I'm going to go with cheese burger.

ENTEN: You like a cheese burger?

AVLON: Yes, and little cherry vanilla ice cream.

CAMEROTA: Yes.

ENTEN: You know what, dude, I'm going to get some of this. What are you doing? This is my favorite fourth of July food, hot dog and some ice cream. I'm going to get some Carvel Fudgie the Whale. Bye everybody. Happy Fourth of July.

[07:00:00] AVLON: Oh, man.

CAMEROTA: Harry, have a great 4th.

AVLON: I love it.

ENTEN: Thank you. CAMEROTA: Thank you. All right. Another presidential tweet sends the Justice Department scrambling. What does this mean? NEW DAY continues.