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Trump versus U.K. Envoy; Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt Face Off in Live Debate; U.S. Labor Secretary under Fire for Lenient Plea Deal with Child Sex Offender; Viral Video: Crying Boy Begs Father Not to Call Police on Black Man; Impact of Diplomatic Spat on Future U.S.- U.K. Trade Deal; Researchers Learn from Cockatoo That Likes to Dance. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired July 10, 2019 - 00:00   ET




JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): The U.S. president escalates his feud with the British ambassador over declaring him persona non grata and the man likely to be Britain's prime minister refuses to offer his support for the besieged envoy.

U.S. Labor Secretary Alex Acosta faces growing calls for his resignation after a sweetheart plea deal years ago for a high-profile child sex offender. But the president offers support and sympathy for Acosta. Nothing but silence for the child victims.

Plus racial profiling in America: the viral video that shows a white man calling police on an African American man and it ends with a twist.

Thanks for joining us all around the world, I'm John Vause, you're watching CNN NEWSROOM.


VAUSE: The last two candidates are standing in the race to be leader of Britain's Conservative Party and by default the next British prime minister came face-to-face Tuesday night in the first and only leadership debate. The man they call BoJo was promising more mojo while his rival, dubbed Theresa in trousers tried to look tough, offering unqualified support for the British ambassador who is under fire from the U.S. president.

Boris Johnson came prepared with heavy talk, optimism and some cutting one-liners. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt may have stolen some points over the crisis in Washington and it's hard to see why any of that matters given that voting by mail is already underway. We begin our coverage with Bianca Nobilo.


BIANCA NOBILO, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The diplomatic row between the United States and the United Kingdom intensified Tuesday as President Trump tweeted, we will not deal with him, him being the U.K.'s ambassador to the U.S., Sir Kim Darroch.

This followed the publication of leaked emails from the U.K.'s ambassador, referring to the Trump administration as diplomatically clumsy and inept. It questioned the competency and policy as incoherent and chaotic.

President Trump fired back calling the U.K. ambassador wacky, saying that the United States was not thrilled with his appointment and that Darroch was, quote, "a very stupid guy."

The context of this spat in Britain is the U.K. looking ahead to an uncertain future over Brexit, the special relationship being of key importance. It is also a moment where the U.K. is about to embark on a change in leadership.

Tuesday night was the first and only head to head debate between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, both vying for the position of prime minister, when the matter of the U.K. ambassador came up, Jeremy Hunt said that he thought the president's remarks were disrespectful and Boris Johnson said something different.


BORIS JOHNSON, BRITISH CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADER CANDIDATE: It is vital that our civil service is not politicized by ministers leaking what they say.



JOHNSON: Whoever leaked that deserves to be eviscerated.

JEREMY HUNT, BRITISH SECRETARY OF STATE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS: Boris, just answer the question. Go on, tell us is you'll you keep the ambassador or not. Come on.

JOHNSON: And on whether or --


HUNT: I will keep him until he is due to retire --


HUNT: And I think we'd like to know if you would.

JOHNSON: Well, I'm not going to be so presumptuous as to --



NOBILO: The candidates did not diverge significantly when it came to policy but they did diverge markedly when it came to tone. Boris Johnson tried to be far more optimistic, saying that Britain should have a can-do attitude and needed to get off the hamster wheel of doom.

Jeremy Hunt on the other hand underscored the importance of realism, pragmatism and attention to detail.

In two weeks' time the Conservative Party membership will appoint a new prime minister at a moment in time when Britain's future place in the world is under such scrutiny and now yet again the special relationship is going to be in the spotlight -- Bianca Nobilo, CNN, London.


VAUSE: Journalist Josh Boswell joins us this hour from Los Angeles with more on the leadership debate, the diplomatic spat and the eternal question, will Britain will leave the European Union or will we just talk about it until the end of time.

There is a moment in this leadership debate that revealed who won, who lost and why. I'd bet real money it was this moment here.


Being prime minister is about telling people what they need to hear, not just what they want to hear. The difference between you and me is that you are peddling optimism. And I'm saying we can make a tremendous --




VAUSE: It seems Johnson, he's gauged the mood of many, not just in the audience but within the Conservative Party. They don't want to hear how complicated something is --


VAUSE: -- they just want reassurance it'll all work out. The man who came with all platitudes and no plan emerged the winner.

JOSH BOSWELL, JOURNALIST: That's sounds about right. It's interesting; look at the response from pundits and reporters monitoring those debates. Their takes from it mostly were that Jeremy Hunt came off best.

He had the detail and the clearest answers; whereas Boris blasted, prevaricated. But I'm not sure that matters. Firstly, people want that clear line on Brexit and Boris has the clearest line: we're leaving on October 31st.

Whether the details actually pan out or make sense, that's another question entirely, something that Jeremy Hunt prodded him on and landed a few blows.

But the other part is that this may not even matter because a lot of Conservative members have already voted. They got their ballots last week and quite a lot of them will just post their ballot back the same day and have already made their vote.

So this debate may have changed people's minds but may not change their votes.

VAUSE: On that issue of Brexit, Hunt is cautious. He didn't want to make specific comments about an exit deadline. Not so Boris Johnson. Here it is.


JOHNSON: I think it's absolutely vital that we come out on October the 31st; otherwise we will continue to hemorrhage trust, not just in the Conservative Party or the Labour Party but in politics generally.

And to make our friends and partners across the Channel concentrate and to understand our seriousness, we must simultaneously prepared to come out without a deal.


VAUSE: The rank-and-file members of the Conservative Party are the only ones who get a vote here because they're voting for party leader.

How important is this difference that Johnson -- he staked out this territory on Brexit and for those party members, this seems to be the one big issue which they're united on.

BOSWELL: That's correct. There's 160,000 odd Conservative Party members who were voting as to whether Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt will be the next PM of the U.K. and what they care about is Brexit and getting it done as soon as possible.

Boris Johnson has the clearest, hardest line message on that and has always been pro-Brexit. Jeremy Hunt was previously a Remainer. So this support is overwhelmingly for Boris Johnson. I think we'll see Johnson elected as prime minister in a couple of weeks' time.

VAUSE: On that diplomatic spat between Trump and the British ambassador in Washington, the outgoing British prime minister, Johnson waffled and avoided saying anything which could be seen as support for the ambassador while Hunt drew a very different approach.


HUNT: The leadership is also about your values. That is a balance being prepared to do the tough and difficult things, sometimes the things that aren't popular, sometimes things you have to say to your friends that you'd rather not say, like I said to Trump today because I think his comments about Theresa May were unacceptable. And I don't think he should have made them.



VAUSE: He got the applause line but it seems Hunt is trying for his "Love, Actually" moment, the movie with Hugh Grant playing the prime minister. Smacks down arrogant bullying U.S. president.


VAUSE: Hunt tried to pull it off but didn't quite get there.

This seems to me as far as Boris Johnson is concerned, a quintessential moment for him, putting the great back into Great Britain and he shied away from it.

BOSWELL: There's this thing coming up which is a potential no deal Brexit and once that happens --


BOSWELL: -- the U.K. government will be scrambling to get a good trade deal with as big a country as they can get. And that is America, most likely. Their number one goal is to get a great trade deal with the U.S.

And this whole spat with the ambassador will throw a big spanner in those works. Boris Johnson does not want to be coming out and saying he supports the ambassador, criticizing Trump's administration and Trump personally as well.

He's having to toe a very fine line here and it's costing him a little bit. You can see that applause from the audience. I think Brits do identify with the "Love, Actually" scene. It made me think of that when I saw the debates.

But Boris Johnson just can't cross that line because he knows he must stay on the right side of Trump for a variety of reasons, not just the trade deal but the negotiations with Huawei. Trump wants to press the advantage there and with the deal with Iran.

The U.K. and the rest of Europe wants this deal with Iran and Trump's against it.

VAUSE: Johnson said there will be an investigation into trying to find the leaker.

But what would be the motivation behind leaking these diplomatic cables so critical of Trump and his administration?

BOSWELL: I think there's two possible culprits, a foreign state actor, less likely but could be Russia or another country has managed to get hold of these diplomatic cables through hacking perhaps and then given them to the British newspaper to sow discord.

But I think what's more likely is that it's a Brexiteer, pro-Brexit faction who has access to these cables and wants to get rid of a Remainer or somebody seen as a Europhile ambassador and put in his place someone more pro-Brexit, pushing for this U.S.-U.K. trade deal in the event of a no deal Brexit.

VAUSE: Josh, thanks for being with us, appreciate it.

BOSWELL: Thank you very much.

VAUSE: The U.S. president is standing by his Labor Secretary despite growing calls for Alex Acosta to resign.


TRUMP: I feel very badly for Secretary Acosta because I've known him as being somebody that works so hard and has done such a good job. I feel very badly about that whole situation.


VAUSE: The situation centers around a plea deal Acosta struck with the multimillionaire Jeffrey Epstein back in 2008, when Acosta was U.S. attorney in Florida. New York prosecutors charged Epstein this week with running sex trafficking ring involving underage girls.

They've painted a vile picture of Epstein operating a network where he sexually exploited and abused dozens of girls, some as young as 14. Epstein has pleaded not guilty to these new charges.

Meantime, Acosta defending that 2008 plea deal even though the judge ruled in February that he and others at the Justice Department violated federal law by keeping the information of a plea deal away from Epstein's victims.

An award-winning story by "The Miami Herald" noted that "Acosta allowed Epstein's lawyers unusual freedoms in dictating the terms of the non-prosecution agreement."

Acosta now applauding federal prosecutors in New York for moving forward with the case, something he did not do back in 2008. CNN's senior investigative correspondent Drew Griffin has more on the plea agreement at the center of the case.


DREW GRIFFIN, CNN INVESTIGATIVE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is the non-prosecution agreement sealed by the court 12 years ago and obtained by CNN, a seven-page document, which states the Palm Beach Police Department, the Florida state's attorney and the FBI say Epstein knowingly did induce or entice minor females to engage in prostitution and travel in interstate commerce for the purpose of engaging in illicit sexual conduct with minor females.

In other words, all evidence the government thought back in 2007 proved Jeffrey Epstein was sex trafficking underage girls, with much of the abuse happening in his Palm Beach mansion. But instead of facing a possible life sentence, he signed the sweetheart deal that said the federal government would not even prosecute him. Epstein did plead guilty to two state prostitution charges in 2008 and was allowed to serve a 13-month prison term in a county jail that he could leave during the day. The federal non-prosecution agreement was approved by then U.S. attorney for Southern Florida Alex Acosta --


GRIFFIN (voice-over): -- currently Donald Trump's Secretary of Labor, who was confronted by CNN last year, only to dodge questions.

QUESTION: I want to ask you about the Jeffrey Epstein...

GRIFFIN: In 2017, at his Senate confirmation hearing, he defended the lack of federal prosecution, but did agree Jeffrey Epstein's come and go as and he please jail time was a disgrace.

SEN. TIM KAINE (D-VA): He had to sleep at a county jail, but he was basically allowed to move and go around the community and do whatever he wants. And then that became a subject of significant criticism.

ALEXANDER ACOSTA, U.S. SECRETARY OF LABOR: And I am on record condemning that and I think that was awful.

GRIFFIN: The lack of federal prosecution even more puzzling, given Acosta's record of aggressively going after others for sex trafficking, getting convictions and pushing for sentences of a decade or more behind bars.

Acosta's role in the plea deal brought to light last fall by a long investigation by "The Miami Herald," which identified dozens of women who say they were molested or otherwise sexually abused by Epstein, four of them willing to speak on video.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We were underage. We were little girls.



UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I started going to him when I was like 14, 15.

GRIFFIN (voice-over): "The Herald" confirmed that, more than a decade ago, federal prosecutors identified 36 victims were underage. Perhaps most surprising of all is that sweetheart deal agreed to by the federal government was never discussed or even shared with any of the victims.

GRIFFIN: And it's because of that lack of notification that a federal judge just this past February found prosecutors led at the time by Acosta broke the law, which requires victim notification. Now in his tweets today, Acosta seems to be applauding the fact federal prosecutors are doing what he didn't do: prosecute Jeffrey Epstein on sex trafficking charges -- Drew Griffin, CNN, Atlanta.

(END VIDEOTAPE) VAUSE: Europe is urging Tehran to reconsider its decision to enrich uranium beyond the limits set out in the 2015 nuclear deal. In a joint statement, diplomats from the U.K., France, Germany and the E.U. said, "We express deep concern that Iran is not meeting several of its commitments under the joint comprehensive plan of action. It must act accordingly by reversing these activities and returning to full JCPOA compliance without delay.

In Washington, the U.S. president repeated an old warning.


TRUMP: We're going to see what happens with Iran. Iran is doing a lot of bad things right now and they'd better be very careful.


VAUSE: Iran ramped up its uranium enrichment after the U.S. withdrew from the nuclear agreement last year. The U.S. special representative for Iran spoke to CNN about all of this on Tuesday.


BRIAN HOOK, U.S. SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE FOR IRAN: We are looking for a new and better deal that we would submit to the United States Senate as a treaty so it enjoys the support of the American people, which the Iran nuclear deal didn't support.

What would make it better, Iran's threats are not limited to its nuclear program. Their regional aggression in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Afghanistan, that regional aggression needs to stop. Iran needs to pull back to its own borders and start behaving more like a normal nation and less like a revolutionary cause. They need to stop proliferating ballistic missiles around the Middle East.

They are the principal driver of instability in the Middle East today and that's why we put in place a much stronger and more effective foreign policy to counter these very many threats that Iran presents.


VAUSE: The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been a long- time critic of that nuclear deal and in a new video, Netanyahu has taken aim at Iran, showing off one of his top-of-the-line U.S.-made warplanes with a not-too-subtle message.


BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL (through translator): I'm at a very impressive tour at the air force base, I'm looking at all our weapons systems and planes, behind me is the Adir jet F-35, Iran recently has been threatening Israel's destruction and it should be remembered that these planes can reach anywhere in the Middle East, including Iran and certainly Syria.

(END VIDEO CLIP) VAUSE: Still to come some are calling it racial profiling as a white man ignores his young son's plea, calls police on a black man. But there's a lot more to the story than just what's on the surface. That's next.





VAUSE: There is a video that's gone viral at once again raising questions about race and racial profiling in America. In the video a young boy is crying and begging his father not to call police on a black man, who is waiting for his friend outside of a San Francisco building. The father calls the police and CNN's Stephanie Elam has the rest of the story.


STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Despite pleas from his young son...

CHRISTOPHER CUKOR, SAN FRANCISCO RESIDENT: I am going to call police right now.


WESLY MICHEL, BUILDING VISITOR: Yes, yes, call the police.

ELAM (voice-over): -- this man called the San Francisco police on another man when he wouldn't identify the resident he was visiting.

CUKOR: Sir, I will hold the door here for you while you call your friend.

MICHEL: That is OK. No one is asking you to hold the door. You can do whatever you want but I am recording you right now and you are going to be the next person, look at this.

CUKOR: You don't need to threaten me.

MICHEL: I am not threatening you.

CUKOR: You are. You are threatening me that I am going to be the next person -- what?

MICHEL: You're just going to be the next person on TV.

ELAM (voice-over): On the phone with police, the resident calls the man a trespasser. His son sounds distraught.

CUKOR: Yes, there is a trespasser in my building. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Daddy, go please.

MICHEL: Listen to your son.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Daddy, go. It is the better. I agree with him, Daddy. Let's go, please, please. I don't like this. Daddy --

CUKOR: He is standing in the lobby.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: -- I don't like this. Let's go.

ELAM (voice-over): That man we now know is Christopher Cukor and tonight he's speaking out about the encounter on "Medium," writing, "A chance encounter this past weekend has upended my life in unexpected ways. Many of you know the parts that you've seen -- the video of a conversation that happened outside my home.

"I'd like to share some extra details about that event that I think add some important context."

In the video, Cukor is heard telling police that the man walked into the usually locked door as he and his son were walking out, a practice the man refers to as tailgating.

CUKOR: He tailgated through the door; as I left, he walked in.

MICHEL: I tailgated through the door.

CUKOR: He is -- appears to be African American.

MICHEL: Appears to be African American.

CUKOR: I don't know, 30s.

MICHEL: 35, software engineering.

CUKOR: Pink polo shirt and a Yankees cap.

MICHEL: All good, all good, software engineer brother, pink polo shirt and tennis shoes and jeans. You have to be here for when you call them.

CUKOR: He is filming me and refusing to leave and saying that I am going to be the next person on TV.

ELAM (voice-over): The man filming the encounter is black. Wesly Michel is a San Francisco Bay software engineer.

In a statement to CNN, he said, quote, "I'm taken aback by the support that I've received in the last few days and how quickly my experience has been shared. Unfortunately this incident mirrors the experience that African Americans endure daily where we are questioned on whether we belong."

CUKOR: He said he is waiting for a friend and I asked him to dial on the phone box. MICHEL: Yes.

CUKOR: I have no way of knowing if his friend is actually here.

MICHEL: Yes, so I am just here to rob whatever, a mailbox?


CUKOR: I am just asking you for your friend's name.

MICHEL: I don't give a (INAUDIBLE). I don't have to tell you (INAUDIBLE).

ELAM: But Cukor says he wasn't motivated to say something because of Michel's race, writing, " First, just some background on that day: I was leaving my building with my child to take him to a friend's house.

"Like many in San Francisco, I live in a building with a security callbox and residents in the building count on that security measure.

"I noticed Wesly Michel caught the door and entered the building without using the callbox. I did what came naturally and asked where he was going. I want to be clear on this point, this is something I do regularly, regardless of who the other person is."


MICHEL: Listen to your son. Walk away. I will stop this.


MICHEL: I'll stop the recording.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I agree. Let's go. Daddy, let's go now.

ELAM (voice-over): In his post, Cukor explains his actions, writing, " I offered to hold the door open while he used the callbox to contact his friend.

"As I learned later, Wesly was a friend of a guest of a resident in the building. The building resident was not expecting Wesly.

"When the encounter turned confrontational and I couldn't resolve it myself, I called the police."

Eventually Michel's friend does arrive, to the relief of the boy.

MICHEL: Hi, Cathy.


MICHEL: I love you, baby.


MICHEL: It took you so long to get here. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Daddy, look what you got us into. Let's go.

MICHEL: My friend is handicapped, just give me one second while you be an (INAUDIBLE) in front of your kid. OK. Remember, I am recording you. I am (INAUDIBLE) recording you.

ELAM (voice-over): As the incident escalated, Michel decided to record it, telling CNN, quote, "I videotaped this incident to protect myself and to support my story should police get involved.

"In fact, I was vindicated when the police arrived by showing them this video. I could never have imagined how quickly my desire to protect myself would unfold."

CUKOR: Are you his friend?


CUKOR: Yes, he is actually here.

MICHEL: Go ahead. I am recording you.

CUI: He refused to identify himself and now he is filming me.

MICHEL: Look at you, look at you.

ELAM (voice-over): With a few days since the incident, Cukor acknowledges how both men arrived at the moment armored with their differently realities.

He writes, "Here's where the complexity begins. I was coming into this situation with my unique history.

"My father was murdered outside his home by a trespasser who he confronted alone. For my child's safety, my safety and that of the building, I felt it was necessary to get help in this situation.

"Furthermore, I've encountered trespassers in my building and we've been robbed several times. This is not uncommon in San Francisco and the bad actors are all different colors.

"I now realize that Wesly was reacting based on his unique history as well. Unfortunately, there is a terrible pattern of people calling the authorities regarding people of color for no other reason than their race.

"The last thing I ever intended was to echo that history -- and I'm sorry my actions caused Wesly to feel unfairly targeted due to his race.

"I believe people are good at heart. It's our past experiences and fears that cloud even our best intentions. I hope Wesly will read this and understand my history as I have tried to understand his."

CUKOR: Take your phone away from me. Stop filming me. Take your phone away from me. If you touch me I will (INAUDIBLE) take your phone away.

ELAM (voice-over): For his part, Michel also said, quote, "I believe that ultimately everyone wants to be seen for who they are and not prejudged. I'm an American, a brother a, son and an ambitious engineer who loves to code and wants to greatly contribute to the tech world in SF, a city that I love."

ELAM: All of this playing out in this video that went viral with more than 1.5 million views -- Stephanie Elam, CNN.


VAUSE: The diplomatic spat between Washington and London raising concerns about a free trade deal for Britain post Brexit. That's not the only warning being raised about the health of the global economy. Details when we come back.


JOHN VAUSE, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Welcome back, everybody. I'm John Vause. Thanks for staying with us. An update now on the top news stories.

[00:31:36] U.S. Labor Secretary Alex Acosta defending a 2008 plea deal he cut with multimillionaire and child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Evan as Acosta faces growing calls to resign, he has praised New York prosecutors for moving ahead with charges against Epstein, who is accused of running a sex-trafficking ring involving underage girls.

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt clashed over Brexit and relations with U.S. President Donald Trump during a televised debate. Conservative Party members will decide which of the two will be Britain's next prime minister later this month when they vote for party leader. Polls show Johnson is the heavy favorite.

Meantime, Jeremy Hunt says Trump is disrespectful and wrong after the U.S. president called the British ambassador Kim Darroch wacky and very stupid.

The tit-for-tat started over the weekend when comments were leaked where Darroch described President Trump as inept and incompetent, among a whole lot of other things.

And this diplomatic spat between two countries is raising questions about the free trade agreement the U.K. wants with the United States after Brexit.

And there are warnings about the U.S. economy. A key recession tracker has hit its highest level since the global financial crisis a decade ago. The Federal Reserve's probability model touched a 33.9 percent in June. The measure has crossed a 30 percent threshold before every recession since 1960. Some economists have warned President Trump's trade war with China might just tip the U.S. economy and maybe the global economy into recession.

Ryan Patel, global business executive, who joins us now from Big Bear in California.


VAUSE: OK. We'll get to the bigger picture of the global economy in a moment. But first, last December, the U.S. ambassador in London, he tweeted out this. "I cannot overemphasize the willingness of President Trump and the American people to make a strong free trade agreement between our two countries. It will be the standard bearer for all future trade agreements."

And you know, it's followed by another tweet on Valentine's Day. "Roses are red" -- same ambassador, by the way. "Roses are red, but they soon fade away. For romance that lasts, sign a new FTA."

OK, so in light of the diplomatic spat between the president, the ambassador and the outgoing British prime minister, can we now say, "Roses are red. Now Trump is really mad. Sorry, Great Britain, your FTA will be really bad"?

PATEL: I'll leave it up to you to get those puns. I'll tell you. I mean --

VAUSE: But in other words, the man, you know, who's been called Trumple Thinskinned is going to punish the U.K. because of the criticism of his administration.

PATEL: And to answer that question, absolutely, actually. He -- he has shown that. And that's what you saw over the weekend. U.K. officials all got together. They're going to have to control this rhetoric through a funnel. I don't think they want this spat.

And as you mentioned, what happened in December's tweet is the U.K. wants to have a trade deal with the U.S. It gives them leverage. And they know that they need -- well, right now the U.K. needs the U.S. a little bit more further to get a deal done quicker. The U.S.'s now a tear point where Trump has these kind of antics or politics on the side. He uses it as leverage. He really uses it as leverage. I mean, they iced the ambassador or today from the Qatar visit and dinner. So trust me: there'll be more coming.

VAUSE: OK. So let's move on to more serious -- that is serious but, you know, I guess in more serious waking measures for the rest of the world. As far as the U.S. economy is concerned, for the past 50 years, what they call an inverted treasury yield curve, which lasts for more than a quarter, has been the single most reliable indicator that a recession is coming.

[00:35:05] And here it is. Take a look at this graphic. What it means is that the debt market has been sort of turned upside-down. Usually long-term U.S. government bonds offer a higher yield than short-term ones, because buyers demand higher interest rates in return for locking their money up for a greater period of time. Only now that's inverted.

So explain what what that all means, that a recession is likely. PATEL: Well, it means the more likely, the recession is going to hit

in the next 12 months. We've seen those indicators. Over the past 50 years, only once there's been a false negative, per se. And it's been -- five or six times has always hit that piece.

What this actually means is that the investors are looking -- using the longer-term -- or looking for a longer return. But in this case, as we sit today, investors are fearful that that outlook is really gloomy, and they're going to take their money and not have that risk and put it in the short term, which shows this inverted yield curve which is a strong indicator and all -- It doesn't mean the recession will happen tomorrow. But if you've seen the last five or six recession curves, the yield curve when it stays inverted like this, the average is, like, 311 days.

So to your point, could it occur faster? Sure. Are there other ways that could kind of put a Band-Aid on it? It can happen, as well. But this is data you cannot ignore. People need to be paying attention to this, is because these are facts.

VAUSE: Yes, and speaking of facts, Doctor Doom is back with facts warning of a global recession. Nouriel Roubini, the economist who picked the housing bubble, he's warning the Trump administration's trade war with China could actually be the tipping point which sends the war into recession. This is what he said.


NOURIEL "DR. DOOM" ROUBINI, CEO, ROUBINI MACRO ASSOCIATES: We have now a global rivalry between the U.S. and China about who's going to be controlling the industries of the future. A.I., automation, for 5- G and all the other big (UNINTELLIGIBLE). There is a new (UNINTELLIGIBLE) drop and a cold war between the U.S. and China. And it's not going to be easy to find a solution of this problem. And the consequences of this trade and tech war and cold war will be the beginning of deglobalization, Balkanization, and decoupling of the global economy. We'll have to redo the entire global tech supply chain.


VAUSE: And this is a warning which has been echoed by JPMorgan Asset Management's global market strategist, Kerry Craig, who said the difference between the next recession and the ones before it would be the politics behind it. Quote, "If there is anything to worry about, it's that the next recession will probably be caused by a political error, so moving on the trade war when it's detrimental for growth."

So even the central banks have started cutting interest rates, for example. It seems unlikely that that's going to avoid the inevitable here.

PATEL: Well, in those scenarios, the central banks are just cutting the rate, which most people are expecting with what those two -- with what the theorists are saying, is that, if there's an extreme trade war, that means that supply change, investment changes the way the flows of how businesses controls capital, all changes. So it doesn't matter what the Fed does, because the whole globalization changes.

Now again, that's an extreme piece, and we're hoping that we don't get to that point. But if we're in this, quote, trade war, it changes the way the economy works right now as of today. And we haven't seen anything like that in the past recession.

VAUSE: Very quickly, the reality for a first-term U.S. president hoping for a second term, it's all about the economy. The economy is bad, but the perception is getting better, they're in with a shot. If the economy is good, reelection is a certainty.

Coming into 2020, though, if the perception is of darker days ahead, Donald Trump is looking to be a one-term wonder.

PATEL: Well, Donald Trump has put himself as that -- the economy is his strongest indicator. If the election was today, he would be hooting his horn and saying that "I can give you another four more years."

But in the next 12 -- 12 months, there's a lot of time until 2020, and I think for him, it's going to be really clear to be able to get maybe at least a trade deal with China, not to get in trade wars with other countries, like India or the U.K. But really, at this point, if there is this downturn or this yield curve continues to go down, or money is coming out and the market has these bad months, that will determine what goes into the 2020 election, because I think people will pay attention to that, versus just a rhetoric.

VAUSE: OK. Yes, there's been a lot of talk, a lot of cheerleading for the economy from the president. Facts are a different matter.

Ryan, thanks so much. Good to see you, mate.

PATEL: Likewise.

VAUSE: Up next here, the voguing, head banging bird who loves to boogie-woogie, but researchers say Snowball in more than just a viral sensation. Yes, right. What they're learning from these dance moves.


[00:41:27] VAUSE: Well, the winners of the Women's World Cup will be celebrated on Wednesday with a ticker-tape parade through New York's Canyon of Heroes. There's been a little bit of controversy over the team's star player and her criticism of the U.S. president. She told CNN his message excludes a lot of people.


MEGAN RAPINOE, CO-CAPTAIN, U.S. WORLD CUP CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM: I think that taking care of others, standing up for yourself and other people, if they don't have the ability to do so, is very uniquely American. I think everybody in America would -- would say that. And I think we have a rich history and a pride in saying that and those words and, oftentimes, in doing that in the world. (END VIDEO CLIP)

VAUSE: A programming note here. The parade starts at 9:30 Eastern Time.

And of course, CNN loves a parade, and there will be live coverage right here on the world's newsroom.

OK. So the world's news leader, he's the bird that can bust a move. The cockatoo that can cut a rug. And scientists are learning a lot by watching Snowball boogie-woogie.

Lynda Kinkade reports.


LYNDA KINKADE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Most birds fly. Some like to sing. But Snowball the Sulphur-Crested Cockatoo, loves to dance.

(MUSIC: Queen, "Another One Bites The Dust")

KINKADE: "Another One Bites The Dust" is a favorite. Snowball lets loose with a series of head-banging, toe-tapping, wing-flapping sequences.

And it's not all for show. Scientists have been studying Snowball's gestures for a decade. They say he actually has 14 routines, one of which went viral in 2007 when he rocked out to the Backstreet Boys song "Everybody."

Researchers say it's rare for a species other than humans to spontaneously move to music. They say the cockatoo's ability to imitate people and form long-term bonds may make them more inclined to dance than other creatures.

(MUSIC: Cyndi Lauper's "Girls Just Wanna Have Fun")

KINKADE: Snowball's owner says he can make up his own steps, which is making not-so-scientific proof that some birds -- just like girls -- just want to have fun,

Lynda Kinkade, CNN.


VAUSE: Stupid story. Thank you for watching CNN NEWSROOM. I'm John Vause.

Stay with us. WORLD SPORT is next. You're watching CNN.


[00:45:15] (WORLD SPORT)