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First Move with Julia Chatterley
U.K. Parliament Returns Amid Brexit Chaos; Hurricane Dorian Batters The Bahamas; Aired 9-10a ET
Aired September 03, 2019 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:16]
ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.
JULIA CHATTERLEY, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR, FIRST MOVE: Hello, I'm Julia Chatterley in New York where we're following two breaking news stories this
hour. In the U.K., a parliamentary showdown as Conservative Party rebels try to block Prime Minister Johnson's Brexit plans, all the while of course
under threat of a snap general election.
And in the Bahamas widespread damage and flooding as the residents wait for a weakened Hurricane Dorian to finally move on. So far, Dorian refusing to
budge continuing to batter the Bahamas. It's caused devastation on some of the islands killing at least five people including an eight-year-old boy.
It's been downgraded did to a Category 3 storm, but heavy rain and winds up to 190 kilometers per hour still lashing the islands.
That's set to carry on for the next few hours with Dorian then predicted to slowly, slowly move north towards Florida. Our Patrick Oppmann is in
Freeport only island of Grand Bahama and sent this report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PATRICK OPPMANN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Hurricane Dorian unleashing its fury on the Bahamas. The record-setting storm striking
leaving behind catastrophic destruction. Wind gusts spiking over 200 miles per hour, becoming the most powerful storm to hit the islands.
Dorian shredding homes here and sending debris across neighborhoods.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HUBERT MINNIS, BAHAMIAN PRIME MINISTER: The initial reports from Alberto is that the devastation is unprecedented and extensive. They are deeply
worrying.
The images and videos we are seeing are heartbreaking. Many homes, businesses and other buildings have been completely or partially destroyed.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
OPPMANN (voice over): Heavy rains creating blinding conditions. Some towns submerged in flood waters. Dorian making landfall in the Abaco
Islands on Sunday, leaving utter devastation.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Please pray for us. Pray for Abaco. Please, I am begging you. My baby is only four months old. Please, pray for us.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
OPPMANN (voice over): Listen to a mother's desperate plea. Girza Joseph (ph) waiting with other residents along with her baby. Their apartment
building now roofless and surrounded by murky flood waters rising around them.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: People trying to make it to the other side with these houses, but some people -- the water just took them and those are the only
people that got to make it over there. Some people, they didn't get to make it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
OPPMANN (voice over): Those horrifying scenes playing again and again across the Bahamas. With the scale of destruction now coming to light,
haunting images showing Hurricane Dorian's dangerous power as it now takes aim at the U.S. coastline. Patrick Oppmann, CNN, Freeport, Bahamas.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHATTERLEY: Just awful images there. All right, let's get the latest forecast for the hours and the days ahead. Meteorologist, Allison Chinchar
is at the CNN Weather Center for us. Allison, great to have you with us. Just talk us through what we should be expecting now in the coming hours.
ALLISON CHINCHAR, CNN METEOROLOGIST: All right, so what we're hoping for the coming hours is for this thing to gradually start to make its way to
the north. We know the forward speed is not that much. It's just about two kilometers per hour.
But keep in mind for much of the last 24 hours, it's been basically stationary. So just to finally see some forward movement is a good sign.
We hope it continues, we hope it actually starts to pick up speed and continue away from the Bahamas.
Also, at the same time, away from Florida; almost just kind of on a due north track, and then eventually head out towards the Atlantic and that is
the overall plan for the storm.
But again, as we know, these things kind of have a mind of their own and any slight wobbles to the west, south -- any direction -- could shift some
of that track.
Here's a look at the hurricane hunters that have been out investigating this all morning long. Again, they are starting to head back towards land
that we do have hurricane watches, warnings, tropical storm watches and warnings in effect up and down the coast not only of Florida, but as well
as portions of Georgia and South Carolina. This is why.
Look at these wind speeds. Again, 96 kilometers per hour in Stuart. You'll start to notice Melbourne, Daytona Beach, a lot of these numbers
starting to increase as it slides up the coast. Even states like Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, Charleston, places like Savannah will
start to see their numbers go up. It's just going to be a delayed effect. It's not going to impact them for at least 24 to 36 hours.
Storm surge also going to be a major factor with this particular storm. Save places from Jupiter up towards Daytona Beach, you're talking about one
to one and a half meters where you see that orange color, then just north of Daytona Beach all the way up towards Charleston, South Carolina. We're
now focused on about one to two meters total.
[09:05:10]
CHINCHAR: Keep in mind, the areas of the Bahamas are still going to get some storm surge because the system just simply hasn't moved away. So
that's going to be another factor there.
The storm is not over yet. Again, this is where we expect that path, even though it won't technically make a true landfall necessarily over portions
of Florida, it's going to be close enough that you're going to get those heavy bands of rain not only in Florida, but also portions of Georgia,
South Carolina, even North Carolina. I mean, look at all of this heavy rain.
Now, it is really going to hit a very close point and potentially making landfall with the highest likelihood over portions of North Carolina. If
you have any travel plans in any of those states, please check with your airline carriers.
Here's the reason why we believe it's going to take that track. You have this high pressure system right here. Another one located in portions of
the Gulf, basically boxing the storm in. You've also got this trough dropping down from the United States, which is basically just locking it in
place. That's why it really hasn't moved much.
But we're hoping at some point it will start that northward turn out over into the open Atlantic. And when it does, hopefully then it will take a
lot of the conditions with it -- Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Allison, thank you so much for joining us and giving us that update there. All right. Patrick Oppmann can now join us live. He's in
Freeport, as we were just hearing earlier. Patrick, great to have you with us.
We just played your report and we were surveying pictures of the damage, have you managed to get outside yet to have a look at what's going on and
the damage that's been wrought? Or are you still trapped inside at this moment?
OPPMANN: No, I have not. I have not because we've had to do live shots this morning. So we are hoping to get out. We very much want to get out
and see the damage.
But if we are live on TV with you, we can't do that. So our hope is to get out and see it because, we now, for the first time in days, we have whether
conditions that allow us to get out and actually do some reporting.
Up until now, which is too dangerous to leave, it is still not great because helicopters cannot come in, planes cannot come in. Far too
dangerous for boats to come in and bring supplies, so people here are still days after the storm has hit, on their own. And that is really what is
driving this crisis.
Now it is a crisis as the people are used to preparing for one or two days of a hurricane and then expecting some services, some help after a storm.
There is no help. There are no services. Things are worse than they were yesterday. Cell phone services are down. No one has power. And it is
increasingly dire as people run out of food, run out of water. They're going to hospitals that are underwater. They are not able to get calls out
in many places.
They are hoping that will help them come in. But you know, even though the hurricane has lessened, it is traveling very, very slowly to the north. It
means still these weather conditions that it's too dangerous to fly into the airport, which is underwater.
It has so far been impossible to get in those Coast Guard helicopters. We're hoping the weather conditions will lighten up, will allow later on
today for help to be -- to come in because it is absolutely needed.
We have seen people who have just walked into the building where we are because their neighborhoods are underwater, and they have left with the
clothes on their back carrying animals, carrying people who have been hurt in this hurricane.
And right now, if you are not receiving help from your neighbors, or your friends or your family, there is no help for people. Again, it's an ugly,
ugly situation. And the sense that I have is things are not improving, things are getting worse.
CHATTERLEY: And Patrick, I mean, we are showing pictures now if there sheer scale of flooding. I mean, I think it's tough to appreciate just how
you get around, how you try and help people in this scenario.
How do you communicate in these kinds of conditions when there is no power? When emergency services can't get in at this stage? How are people
communicating?
OPPMANN: So right now, we brought from Atlanta, our producer Jay Garcia brought a generator. That's the only way we have power right now. We have
enough gas for another day or two. Hopefully, we'll get some more.
We have enough food for a couple more days. We have filled up our bathtubs with water. We're not showering, but we're able to you know, brush her
teeth and drink that.
We prepared for this as best as we can. I think other people who this is not what they do, imagine if you're elderly. Imagine if you have pets.
Imagine if you'd gone through other hurricanes here, and it perhaps wasn't that bad. Imagine if you were in an area that floods. You have been
caught completely unaware, perhaps. There's a portion of this island that is Haitian and they don't listen to English language news services, they
are very hit, I am told.
[09:10:14]
OPPMANN: So I think for many people and there are whole communities here, they're very poor, and they just don't have the wherewithal to go out and
buy several days of food. I think these vulnerable populations are really suffering now. We are hearing reports of people who have rode this out on
the top of the roofs, in their cars, or are completely homeless now, so we do hope to be able to go out and bring you those people's stories.
Because again, the situation is getting worse here; it is not getting better, and certainly I am not criticizing the Bahamian government.
They're doing everything they can, but it's quite clearly not enough.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, so important to be there to share these conditions. Patrick, thank you so much. Stay safe. Patrick Oppmann in Freeport there
for us.
All right, let's now to our other major story today. The Brexit showdown in the U.K. The British Parliament back in session after a six week recess
with an attempt by MPs to take a no-deal Brexit scenario off the table here.
The pound falling sharply as investors await today's debate. It fell below that 1.20 level as you can see, we're just above there right now. That
though for the first time since October of 2016.
In the meantime, U.K. stocks also under pressure as well, along with the other European markets. The French and the Swiss stocks among the weakest
performers thereto. Brexit -- just one of the many uncertainties weighing on U.S. investors.
Futures right now under pressure as you can see, our first session here in the United States since the Labor Day holiday; also the first trading day
since the new fresh U.S. and Chinese tariffs took effect this past weekend.
U.S. consumers really for the first time firmly in a firing line, too. All right, lots to discuss. Let's bring it back to Brexit though.
The scene now set for an explosive political battle in London. Lawmakers have returned to Parliament. They are expected to vote on a Bill to delay
Brexit beyond that deadline of October 31st. If that vote succeeds, Prime Minister Boris Johnson threatening to ask Parliament for a general
election. Although he did say last night, that's not what he wants.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BORIS JOHNSON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I don't want an election. You don't want an election. Let's get on with the people's agenda -- fighting
crime, improving the NHS, boosting schools, cutting the cost of living, unlocking talent and opportunity across the entire United Kingdom with
infrastructure education and technology. It is a massive agenda.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHATTERLEY: Bianca Nobilo joins us now from Westminster. Bianca, he doesn't want an election, but he didn't have a layout. His campaign
priorities there as he came out of Downing Street, I have to say, but talk us through why we expect in the coming hours because it is going to be a
pivotal day, I think, in Parliament behind you.
BIANCA NOBILO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A monumental day and a historic week, Julia, and I couldn't agree more with your assessment of Boris Johnson last
night on the steps of Downing Street. He said that he didn't want an election, but then basically campaigned on the health service, on safety on
the streets and more spending for the United Kingdom.
And it's an important week for him to put it mildly. That's because not only is he faced with trying to deliver on his key legislation, and that is
to get the Britain out of the European Union, but he is trying to hold his party together and stay in power. And how he does any of those things is
yet to be seen.
So key in his priorities for this week is to try and avoid Parliament taking control of parliamentary business. Now Julia, what that means is as
we know, the government is usually in charge of deciding what parliamentary business happens and when.
The opposition has a certain number of debates where they can take control of the agenda a year, but what we're seeing today is an unprecedented
situation where there's going to be an emergency debate, then MPs will get to vote on whether or not they take control of the agenda tomorrow.
Now, as you outlined, Boris Johnson said that if they're successful in doing that, to try and thwart his leaving the E.U. on the 31st of October,
then he will call for a general election. But it's not that simple.
Under the fixed term Parliament's Act of 2011, he would need a two-thirds majority of the House of Commons to get that election or he would fail a no
confidence vote that could lead to a general election.
But this is key, Julia, and something that I was reminded of by lawmakers who are very senior this morning. They reminded me that actually, Theresa
May was looking at repealing that fixed term Parliament back in 2017 when she decided to call a snap election. So that would only require a
parliamentary majority -- just a majority of one -- a simple majority, rather than a two thirds majority.
So that could be something that Boris Johnson is also looking at, if he needs to go to his last resort and call the general election.
[09:15:07]
CHATTERLEY: Let's skin this out. Let's say MPs today decide that they're going to postpone Brexit beyond October 31st. They also agree as a result
of that to go to fresh elections, because Jeremy Corbyn says he wants to go to a general election here. What happens if Boris then wins? Could he
overturn that decision and does he even need to listen to MPs who say they want to extend Article 50 anyway?
NOBILO: All excellent questions, Julia. And as in Britain, we have an uncodified, unwritten Constitution, it's very difficult to answer those
because we are in uncharted territory.
On the issue of whether or not Boris Johnson could decide to go ahead with exiting the European Union anyway, if there was another election and Boris
Johnson did get a clear majority, perhaps the Brexit Party helped him win some seats, and then the majority decided for Britain to leave, then I
don't see anything that could get in the way of that in terms of the legislature.
There's also a concern that if there is an election that is very close to the date that Britain is supposed to be leaving the E.U., that the
government might somehow be able to use executive powers when Parliament is not sitting, and we're getting that new set of MPs to allow Britain to
leave the European Union in that time. All of this has never been done before. It's completely untested.
So we don't know the answers. And that's why I'm always reminded of advice that was given to me right at the beginning of this after the referendum by
a sagacious MP. And he said to me, "This will come down to the shrewdest legislative minds who can see the parliamentary procedures and the
loopholes and use the Speaker and his discretion to the best of their ability."
Because we really don't have a roadmap for this, Julia. There is no way to tell how this week is going to end. I've been walking past the protests, I
could barely move. There's so much disagreement on the streets between the leave supporters and the remain supporters.
And so as without is within. It's the same in the chamber of the House of Commons. So there really is no way of knowing how this week is going to
end up.
CHATTERLEY: No, I know there's a lesson in there somewhere which is write a Constitution, and all the while, the E.U. leaders just let the U.K. argue
amongst themselves and they don't even have to negotiate. Bianca, great job. Thank you so much. We'll be back with you later on in the show.
Bianca Nobilo there in Westminster.
All right, we're going to take a break. Coming up though on FIRST MOVE, a September slide. U.S. stocks looks set to drop as Wall Street returns to
fresh tariffs. Stay with us to take a look at the open here.
And of course, we'll also be talking plenty more about Brexit and a recap of the latest on Hurricane Dorian, too. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:20:57]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to the show. We've just been observing a moment of silence here at the New York Stock Exchange to honor the West Texas
shooting victims this weekend.
All right, we're live at the New York Stock Exchange. Let me give you a look at what we're seeing for the U.S. market this morning. Of course the
first session of the week following the Labor Day holiday and we are losing ground here down by some eight tenths of one percent for the Dow in what we
traditionally see as one of the most volatile times of the year here on Wall Street.
A quick look at what's going on in currency land as well and the British pound weakening to not seen levels for around --what? Some three years.
The pound losing some 20 percent of its value since the 2016 Brexit vote. Back then, it was sitting it to $1.50 as you can see to the pound, not
traded consistency below that level, actually that $1.20 level since 1985. What a mess.
Tina Fordham, Chief Global Political Analyst at Citi joins us now. Tina, always a pleasure. I will never forget when you said to me there was a
political nervous breakdown going on in the U.K. Are we looking at crescendo point here this week?
TINA FORDHAM, CHIEF GLOBAL POLITICAL ANALYST, CITI: I think that this crisis could continue further. What you're seeing in the British press at
the moment is that this is going to be the most volatile weekend in U.K. politics, perhaps since the referendum over three years ago.
This is the first day Parliament will sit in session. But meanwhile, newly installed Prime Minister Boris Johnson has really stolen a march on
Parliament because he's had a month to control the debate.
CHATTERLEY: Do you think the rebel MPs that seem to be swelling behind the scenes, vote against the government here and try and roll out a no-deal
Brexit? Is that the scenario that we're looking at in the coming hours?
FORDHAM: Well, the very idea that rebel Conservative MPs would actually go against the whip and their party really is in contrast to what we all tend
to think about politics -- that party first.
And so that really underscores what's different about the Brexit debate. The idea of going for a no-deal crash out Brexit has actually led to a
situation where conservative MPs, between 10 and 20 might go against the Prime Minister and risk losing their seats.
Now most investors will say, "Turkeys never vote for Thanksgiving or Christmas, as we say in the U.K." But we may see that tonight. And that
just highlights how Brexit is existential. It is not like another election or political debate.
CHATTERLEY: It's such a great point. And actually I've had this conversation a lot. This is not something where you get a lead of a
country that okay, you may like or dislike them, but you can perhaps vote again in four years' time or four years after, like here in the United
States. This is a generational change and why people feel so passionately about it.
FORDHAM: Yes.
CHATTERLEY: Assuming this goes against Boris Johnson, what then? Because he had suggested and he suggested it again last night that if this vote
goes against him and a no-deal Brexit is ruled out here, it undercuts his negotiating position with the E.U.
He can't threaten them with that risk in order to get a better deal here. Do we then potentially see him calling for a general election? And if we
do, do parliamentarians agree because he needs two thirds of a majority here to even have a general
Election?
FORDHAM: And this is why it's impossible to draw a decision tree for the kind of spider's web of options. This unlike many other political risks is
not a binary option -- Brexit or no Brexit. Early elections or government stays in power. You're right. Boris Johnson who succeeded Theresa May
when she stepped down wants a mandate, but he doesn't want to say that he wants an election.
[09:25:11]
FORDHAM: And so and you know, gaming out these scenarios is very difficult indeed. There's a risk that he does what Matteo Salvini recently did in
Italy and overreaches his position, which has backfired in the Italian case.
This is going to be a very difficult to debate in the House of Commons today -- tonight in the U.K. Will the rebel MPs hold their nerve? Will
Labour follow through on what its leader, Jeremy Corbyn has said that they want an early election? Because our scenario suggests that Labour might
not do so well. So how do you trade this?
CHATTERLEY: And this is the gamble here. It's a gamble, I think for voters. It's also a gamble here for investors when you're looking at this
scenario. What is least palatable here? Is it a no-deal Brexit? Or is it a Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn here? Because there's a lot of discontent
outside of the Labour Party masses.
FORDHAM: And there is no constructive scenario for markets or for the U.K. economy, right?
CHATTERLEY: Right.
FORDHAM: Other than status quo continuing. What markets fear most -- what U.K. investors fear most is undoubtedly a Corbyn-led Labour government in
Number 10.
CHATTERLEY: Is that right?
FORDHAM: Yes.
CHATTERLEY: We've gone beyond fearing a no-deal Brexit scenario. The bigger fear now is Jeremy Corbyn in Number 10.
FORDHAM: But I think we have -- yes, and we have to put some nuance around that scenario though, because again, according to the election scenarios,
the chances of a majority Labour government or any majority governments are very slim indeed.
But you have to remember that the manifesto for this Labour government is a radical left to an extent that it hasn't been seen in the U.K. for decades,
including expropriation and shares of large companies, a scheme for renters to buy from landlords done at market prices. All of that is something
markets fear.
But then I can say, I think investors overestimate the extent to which -- you know, a no-deal Brexit represents a kind of a line drawn under this
crisis. It's the end of the beginning. It's not an end in itself.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. So even if we see a no-deal Brexit, it's just the beginning to everything else -- all rolling out.
FORDHAM: All the years of uncertainty, political and economic.
CHATTERLEY: What a mess. Start and finish the same way. Tina Fordham, great to have you with us. As always, thank you so much. We will come
back to this conversation again, no doubt.
All right. After the break, we're taking you to Westminster where MPs who will vote later on today on blocking a no-deal Brexit, it's an issue that
divided the House and as we were just discussing, the whole country, too. Stay with us. Plenty more to come.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:31:08]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to the show. Over in the U.K., the House of Commons soon to be in session. The stage is set for one of the fiercest
Brexit battles since the 2016 referendum.
Lawmakers will vote tonight on a bill to try and block a no-deal Brexit. The Prime Minister vehemently opposing the move. He says he will fire any
members of his party who will vote for the bill, and will call a general election if Parliament backs it.
Conservative MP Nigel Evans joins us now. Nigel, fantastic to have you on the show, and welcome back. Is the Prime Minister going to lose the vote
tonight?
NIGEL EVANS, BRITISH MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT, CONSERVATIVE PARTY: Hi, Julia.
CHATTERLEY: Will Parliament vote against it?
EVANS: Well, we won't have long to wait. The vote will be 10:00 p.m. U.K. time. But what we do know that in the past when Conservative rebels joined
with the Labour Party to try and wrestle control of the order paper, they succeeded.
So I suspect the assumption must be that they will succeed tonight in taking control of the order paper, which means tomorrow, a bill will be
presented to Parliament, which will say to Boris Johnson, "If you're unable to get the deal with the European Union, then you have to ask for an
extension of Article 50." That means we don't leave for another three months at least that's until January 2020.
Well, I was in the garden of Downing Street, which is the Prime Minister's official residence and he spoke to about 200 Conservative MPs. And he
said, "If this happens, I will not go to Brussels and demands an extension of Article 50."
And so really, the options are very limited for him, and I suspect where we're heading is going to be an early election and they're talking about as
early as October the 14th. But we do have the Fixed Term Parliament Act, which means that Parliament would have to vote for that.
But it does seem absurd to me that a Conservative Government is prepared to go to the country early, and it is the opposition that tries to stop us
doing that. It's going to be up to the people then to decide whether they want Brexit or not.
CHATTERLEY: Jeremy Corbyn has suggested he wants to see general elections, too? Do you anticipate that actually, the Prime Minister will get that two
thirds majority to hold fresh elections on October 14th?
EVANS: Well, there are so many unpredictable things happening in British politics at the moment. I'm afraid that is one of them, because I was
speaking to a Labour MP earlier today. And I said, "Are you getting ready for the election?" And he said, "Do you think I'm going to vote for an
early general election? You've got to be mad. We'd lose it."
And so there is a lot of speculation out there that the number of Labour MP is just simply will not vote for an early election. But Jeremy Corbyn for
the last two years has been calling for an early general election. He said he didn't want to see a second referendum. He would rather have an early
election.
And so I find it rather strange that if Boris Johnson does come to Parliament later this week, and then says, "All right, Parliament, I want
you to vote on a dissolution of Parliament in order that we can get that early election," I find it incredibly bizarre if he got voted down by the
opposition.
CHATTERLEY: This is the government basically saying that they don't believe they can get any form of deal here that the no-deal Brexit is the
nuclear option here. And there are plenty of people that voted for Brexit, but didn't assume that Brexit would mean no deal at all and a clean break
with the E.U.
Are we really doing what the British people want here by trying to force a no-deal Brexit scenario?
EVANS: Well, I think the answer to that is yes, Julia, because all it said on the ballot paper is, "Do you want to remain or leave the European
Union?" And whilst we said that we would try and get a deal with the E.U., of course, if the E.U. doesn't want to negotiate properly with the Prime
Minister, if he is not -- if Michel Barnier, the E.U. negotiator is not prepared to do anything about the backstop between Ireland and Northern
Ireland, which is a real sticking point for a number of MPs at Westminster, then quite frankly, it's the European Union that are stopping that
particular deal.
[09:35:11]
EVANS: And what the Prime Minister said last night in Downing Street to us was that, some of the remain Conservative rebels, they are the ones who are
making no deal more likely, because what's happening is the European Union are looking at what's going on at Westminster.
If they believe that Parliament will try and stop the United Kingdom leaving without a deal, then why would they come to the negotiating table
and offer anything other than what they've currently offered?
And that deal that they have offered, of course, has been rejected by Parliament three times.
CHATTERLEY: No, I agree with you. I think Conservative Party governments have done a better job of negotiating and fighting amongst themselves than
they have with any attempt at tackling the E.U. here to get a better deal, Nigel.
Ultimately, there's a big gamble still here, if we go to fresh elections, and we're just looking at live pictures actually now of the House of
Commons formally back in session.
But there's a risk here that we have a repeat of what happened with Theresa May if she calls an election and actually ends up weaker as a
result. What then?
EVANS: Yes, I doubt it. Because I remember that general election, and we were 24 points in the lead going into the election. And we brought forward
probably the most disastrous manifesto that I have ever fought an election in the 27 years I have been a Member of Parliament.
It was -- it had the Grim Reaper on the front page and really basically threatening elderly people that they'd lose their houses if they had to go
in for social care. And so we lost a lot of support during that election and in fact, the lead went down from 24 percent to one percent.
But a lot has happened since that time, of course. We've got a new Prime Minister in Boris Johnson, and I've been around my constituency in
Lancashire in England over the past four days, and I've spoken to lot of people and I'm getting the thumbs up from people who are not ordinary
conservative voters. They think he is actually doing a good job.
And all the opinion poll ratings that we've seen over the past few days now indicate that the Conservative Party might well get a majority of about 69,
which, of course, would be fantastic for Boris Johnson.
But none of this, of course needs to happen, because all that needs to happen is that tonight, they do not take control of the order paper that
they do not try and force the Prime Minister's hands. He said last night to us, "If they tell me that I've got to go back to Brussels, and I've got
to accept the deal, that really does weaken my negotiating position."
And it does, if you think about it, if the European Union know that he's going to accept the deal, then they're just going to give a very bad deal.
The Prime Minister needs that opportunity to be able to walk away. And if the European Union know that he has got the backing of Parliament in doing
that, then I'm absolutely certain they'll get straight back to that negotiating table, and we'll get a good deal from the European Union, one
that benefits them, as well as us.
CHATTERLEY: Nigel, I guess, the only side I should mention there is at the polls have been wrong in the past, so we have to be a little bit cautious
about reading into those.
But for voters looking at the Conservative Party, there are many, whether they're remainers or Brexiteers, say actually, the country is in a
generational debacle now as a result of Conservative Party politics. Would you agree with that? And actually that for many people looking at this
situation, there's very little reason actually to trust the Conservative Party in power anymore.
EVANS: No, and I'll tell you why. Because since Boris Johnson became the leader of the party, he has made multiple announcements on things like
extra money for the National Health Service for mental health care, 14 billion pounds over the next three years for education so that all parts of
the United Kingdom are getting extra money provided into their education and 20,000 extra police on the streets, because we know that there is a
problem with law and order.
And we've still got a very strong economy, and tomorrow, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will be giving an indicator as the sort of budget that we can
expect should we be in a position to give that budget. And so, I think that's one of the reasons why our poll rating has over quadrupled since we
took part in the European Union elections.
And so -- that's why I'm fairly content, quite frankly, that we want to get Brexit out of the way, so we can start to talk about all of these other
issues.
The next general election, yes, will clearly be about who are we going to put into Number 10 in order to deliver Brexit or whatever Brexit is going
to be or indeed even to stop Brexit if you vote for the Liberal Democrats, but there are so many other issues out there that people want us to get on
with.
CHATTERLEY: Now on that point, I couldn't agree more. Let's bring it back to a policy, please. Nigel Evans, fantastic to have you on as always over
in Westminster there. No doubt, we'll speak again soon.
EVANS: Pleasure, thank you very much.
CHATTERLEY: All right, leave means leave with or without a deal; that says Prime Minister Boris Johnson, excuse me. The coastal town of Clacton-on-
Sea though voted to leave in 2016, but how do people feel about doing so without a deal?
[09:40:13]
CHATTERLEY: Anna Stewart joins me now. Actually, that's a great question, and I was just posing it there. Anna, majority people there voted to leave
the E.U., but what are they saying about the situation we're in now? Are they willing to see us leave without a deal?
ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: They really are, I'd say overall, Julia. And actually, although this area voted 69.5 percent to leave back in 2016, and
more recently, of that European parliamentary elections, they voted overwhelming for the Brexit Party.
But despite that, there are some remainers and I had spoken to both remainers and Brexiteers here. And the general consensus from both sides
is just one of frustration over politics. Take a listen to what they had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
STEWART: Today, the MPs get back from their holiday. And they're going to try and mount some sort of rebellion where they will hijack the
parliamentary agenda, ban a no-deal Brexit. That might bring on an election -- with all these sort of bits --
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's just a horrible act. I just said we need to get on with it. Get out.
STEWART: How is Boris Johnson doing?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He has been doing a good job. If only he can get us out on the 31st.
STEWART: Would you rather have no deal? Or a delay?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A no deal.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'd rather live without a deal. I think the U.K. can stand on its own. We might have a few hiccups. But yes, I think we can.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEWART: Interestingly, everyone I spoke to you today, I posed the question, how do you think the new Prime Minister is doing and actually,
the general consensus is he is doing a good job. They think he is a tough negotiator. Whether or not they would vote for him if there was a general
election though, Julia, that is a different question.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, it's fascinating though that the narrative does feel like it's changed particularly among the Brexiteers. Anna Stewart, great job.
Thank you so much for that.
All right. Coming up on FIRST MOVE, we will be following the path of Hurricane Dorian is it devastates the Bahamas and sets it eye then on the
U.S. East Coast. We will be taking you live to Florida for the preparations there, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:45:14]
ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to the show. Hurricane Dorian continuing to linger over the Bahamas. The storm has already claimed the lives of at
least five people including an eight-year-old boy.
Dorian has been battering the island since Sunday afternoon with winds approaching 300 kilometers an hour. It's now eased a little. It's been
downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane. It's not expected though to move until later this morning when it's forecast to head north towards the U.S.
East Coast.
Leyla Santiago joins us from Fort Pierce, Florida. Leyla, great to have you with us. Four days really since we've been talking about this and
Floridians have been preparing. Talk us through what they're expecting them and the preparations that have been made.
LEYLA SANTIAGO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the County Administrator actually just said that they're expecting tropical force winds through tomorrow
morning. He is asking the residents here for patience because he understands that this is a slow moving storm.
And so folks may think that they're in the clear, they may be relieved from what they have seen in terms of the track of it. But he says, while they
are under a hurricane warning, which is in effect right now that they will not let their guard down as emergency responders.
Now, you know, let's kind of backup to your point. Yesterday, they said, "Oh, tonight is going to be the worst event." That didn't happen here.
Today, they're saying the same thing. They say, "Okay, today, we expect that we will see the worst of it." This has just been such a tough storm
for them to predict and monitor.
So the fear for emergency responders now are that people are going to lose their patience. They are going to wander out. I should mention this area
is under a mandatory evacuation. They are expecting storm surge, coastal erosion, of course, flooding is always an issue in those low lying areas
and the wind is starting to pick up.
We really haven't seen much rain. But last night, when we were here about 12 hours ago, that's when we started to feel the winds of Dorian start to
pick up here in this area.
In the meantime, a lot of folks just waiting to see where this storm will go.
CHATTERLEY: To your point, Leyla, when you went exactly to it, it feels like given the time that we've been talking about this, there's a risk of
complacency. Have the people -- people who've been stubborn here and said, "Look, we want to hang around. It may be an evacuation zone, but we're
going to stay." Have you spoken to people that have made that choice here?
SANTIAGO: I was actually just in a diner this morning and I spoke to one man who is working at the diner and he says he has a home on this very
island where we are right now, Hutchinson Island.
He seemed to not be too concerned about what would happen to his property. Again, I think there is a sigh of relief among people here given that they
didn't see much last night in terms of damage. There were some power outages. They have about 400 people right now without power.
But that said, given that there was at some point a threat of a Category 5 storm, there is a bit of relief but emergency workers are really urging
folks not to let their guard down.
CHATTERLEY: No, stay vigilant. Leyla, thank you for being there and bringing us up to speed with that. Leyla Santiago there joining us from
Florida.
All right, you're watching FIRST MOVE. We'll be right back. More to come.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:50:59]
CHATTERLEY: Welcome back to FIRST MOVE. We are 20 minutes into the first trading session of the week here at the New York Stock Exchange. And as
you can see, we all lower. Lots of risks and concerns abound.
Let's talk through some of them. Joining us now is Kristina Hooper. She is Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco. Kristina, always great to
have you on.
KRISTINA HOOPER, CHIEF GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST, INVESCO: Great to be here.
CHATTERLEY: I want to start with Brexit because that's obviously bubbling in the surface, and we've now got Parliament in session debating what to do
next. What are your thoughts?
HOOPER: Well, my thoughts are that the economic policy uncertainty continues. You know, I always have to look at it from the perspective of
the economy. And all this chaos, all this uncertainty really just tamps down business investment and then will ultimately tamp down hiring and
consumer spending the longer it lasts.
CHATTERLEY: So it doesn't even really matter what the political outcome here when we go to fresh elections or whatever we see. The bottom line is,
it creates this environment of uncertainty, which undermines confidence, whether that's businesses, consumers -- you name it.
HOOPER: Absolutely and that can be economically deadly.
CHATTERLEY: Yes. Well, we get that. What we also saw this weekend, of course, was the imposition of yet more tariffs from the United States and
China. We're kind of seeing the market, I think, reacting to a bit of that as well. Consumers, well, and truly in the firing line now.
HOOPER: Absolutely. Well, there was a lot of positive sentiment last week.
CHATTERLEY: Yes.
HOOPER: And it seemed to really be pervasive. But we've seen that before, right? The market wants to hang on anything that it perceives to be
positive.
CHATTERLEY: Yes.
HOOPER: But we are, I think, a lot more realistic today, as we come back in terms of markets, recognizing that if the U.S. and China can't even
agree to a date in which to have trade talks, we are probably not close to any kind of resolution.
CHATTERLEY: And to be fair, you've said that all the way along that your expectations for a deal are that much more conservative perhaps than other
people that are discussing this at this moment.
Something you are looking at, though, which I found fascinating was the expectations gap in U.S. consumers right now, just reacting to the
environment and the noise level? Talk me through this?
HOOPER: Sure. Well, the consumer has really been the pillar of strength in the U.S. economy.
CHATTERLEY: Powerhouse.
HOOPER: And of course, that helps that the consumer is more than two thirds of GDP. So that's a critical part of what we need to look at to
understand where the economy is headed.
And while the consumer remains strong, we've seen some weakness in the overall consumer sentiment numbers. But what I focus in on is the
expectations gap.
CHATTERLEY: Yes.
HOOPER: And that's the difference between what consumers' perceptions of current conditions are and consumers' perceptions of the future in terms of
economic outlook is, and what we've seen is that both have declined. But they're declining a lot more significantly for outlook than they are for
current conditions.
When that gap widens, that suggests that an economic downturn is coming; not necessarily recession, but of course, if the gap widens even more, then
we should be even more concerned and more focused.
CHATTERLEY: I mean, we've been through a period of two weeks where we've been talking about the recession risks as a result of the movements that
we've seen in the bond market in particular.
I mean, what's the risk of actually that's just consumers reacting to the risk of a recession? We always talk about the risk of a self-fulfilling
prophecy here. Is that perhaps what we're seeing here to, consumers simply reacting to the sheer level of news flow around recession risks right now?
HOOPER: Well, that certainly could be the case. We know that consumers are reacting to tariffs. They've mentioned them actually in the surface.
So it's clear that news flow is impacting consumer perceptions. But that's always been the case. There's just such a huge element of psychology in
economics and market behavior.
CHATTERLEY: What's the message here very quickly to investors who are looking at the Brexit risks? They're looking at the tariff risks, the
trade deal risks here. What's the message?
HOOPER: Well, I think August provides a cautionary tale. It was a bumpy ride. We went through twists and turns, and lots of negative news flow and
a little positive news flow, but had you just shut it out and gone through the month and stayed the course, you would have been pleasantly surprised
with the result.
[09:55:12]
HOOPER: And so I think it's really important for investors to understand that even if we get a lot of negative news flow around the economy and
around trade, the key is that the Fed appears poised to be more accommodative.
And so for investors, that's really what matters because the Fed has shown itself to be capable of supporting risk assets, even when it can't support
the economy.
CHATTERLEY: Yes, the perfect look ahead tease to Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve meeting later this month. Kristina, fantastic to have you
with us. Thank you.
HOOPER: Thank you for having me.
CHATTERLEY: Hard hats on, hang on to your seats. Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist of Invesco there.
All right. Stay with CNN. The British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to speak in Parliament in the next hour. We are bringing that to live the
moment it begins.
But for now, that's it for the show. I am Julia Chatterley, you've been watching FIRST MOVE. Time to go make yours. Plenty more storm coverage,
too. Of course two big stories to watch today. Thank you for being with us. Stay tuned.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[10:00:00]
END
