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Don Lemon Tonight

CNN Source: Barr Has Said He's Considered Resigning Over Trump's Interference in DOJ Matters; Trump Flexes Pardon Power: Announces Clemency for High-Profile Felons Blagojevich, Kerik and Others; Sanders Surges To Double-Digit Leads In National Polls; Bloomberg On The Rise, Taking Part In Tomorrow's Debate; What Role Will Barack Obama Play In Dem Race; Support Of African American Voters Crucial In 2020; NY Mag: Obama's Silence On Dem Race A Strategy; Believes He'll Play A Role in Healing Party After Messy Primaries. Aired 12-1a ET

Aired February 19, 2020 - 00:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: This is CNN TONIGHT. I'm Don Lemon. We have got a busy hour coming up and here are tonight's big headlines.

We're going to begin with the breaking news, a source telling CNN that the Attorney General Bill Barr says he has considered resigning over President Trump's interference with the DOJ, especially, no surprise, his tweets. Is he trying to send a message?

The President declaring himself the nation's chief law enforcement officer, which might come as a surprise to Bill Barr, community the prison sentence, the President that is, of a former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, who was convicted of attempting to sell the Senate seat of Barack Obama. And pardoning among others, former NYPD Commissioner Bernard Kerik who was convicted of fraud and lying. Is Roger Stone next on the list?

Democrats take to the debate stage in Nevada in less than 24 hours with just days to go until the Nevada caucuses. Two national polls show Bernie Sanders surging with double-digit leads. But those polls also show Michael Bloomberg's candidacy is on the rise among Democratic voters and he's going to take part in tomorrow night's debate.

With the Democratic race heating up, what are Barack Obama's thoughts on the candidates and their positions? And as a nation's most influential Democrat, what role is he likely to play moving forward? Well, we're going to take a look at that.

Plus, President Trump courting black voters and he may find some success. But why are African-Americans, for the most part, rock solid in their support for Democrats in the voting booth? We're going to get some answers in the hour ahead.

We want to get right to our breaking news right now. CNN White House Correspondent Kaitlan Collins has the very latest on Bill Barr for us. Kaitlan.

KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Don, what we're being told tonight is that the Attorney General Bill Barr is telling people that he has considered resigning from his job if the President does not stop getting involved at matters at the Justice Department, namely pointing to the President's tweets, the ones that you saw from not only last week after that sentencing recommendation for Roger Stone, but also going through today, even after Bill Barr gave that remarkable interview where he essentially said that the President's tweets do not help him do his job and actually make doing his job harder.

Something that President openly acknowledged today, when reporters asked him about it. The question, of course, and there are skeptics who are going to question Bill Barr's motives here because he is someone who people close to him described as extremely calculated. We know that he has had a tough time inside the Justice Department with the rank and file members.

And you saw over 2,000 former federal prosecutors and Justice Department officials calling on him to resign after the Justice Department overruled the prosecutors on that recommendation. But what we also know from sources is that the tension between the President and Bill Barr over these tweets is real.

Bill Barr has made this clear pretty privately as well as publicly to the President that the tweets do not help him do his job. But, of course, what people are going to say in response to that is that Bill Barr knew who the President was when he took this job. He knows he's a frequent tweeter. He knows he's someone who tweets about Justice Department and how his relationship with the last Attorney General ended as well.

So, of course, the question is whether or not Bill Barr is actually willing to resign over this, whether or not it would actually come to that because the President is unlikely to stop tweeting. So if that is actually something that is going to drive him to resign from this job, that is something that still remains to be seen.

But what we can say is that the tension here is real. We do know Bill Barr is at the White House and briefly for a few minutes at the same time as the President today and did have a previously scheduled lunch with the White House Counsel Pat Cipollone.

And right now the Justice Department is saying he has no plans to resign, which of course is not a denial that he has told people he is considering doing so.

LEMON: Kaitlan Collins, thank you very much.

All right. Joining me now, former Deputy Assistant Attorney General Harry Litman and former Federal Prosecutor Renato Mariotti.

Hello, gentlemen. Welcome to the program.

Renato, give me your reaction to this news. So now Barr cares about the DOJ's independence all of a sudden?

RENATO MARIOTTI, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: I'll believe it when I see it. I don't believe that (inaudible) I certainly saw Barr move his lips and say that he didn't want Trump to tweet.

[00:05:02]

But I don't really view that as more than him being upset that Trump is telling him what to do and it's making it too obvious that he's essentially doing Trump's betting. I think this is a smokescreen and Barr will be back to doing Trump's bidding soon enough.

LEMON: Do think he's delusional to think that he can get this president which no one has been able to do to stop tweeting, Renato.

MARIOTTI: I'm surprised if he's actually trying to convince Trump to do something. I don't really believe anyone can move him and I don't think Barr is foolish enough to think that. He's seems like a pretty clever guy to me.

LEMON: Harry, how much of this you think is because Barr is potentially facing a rebellion within the department?

HARRY LITMAN, FORMER U.S. ATTORNEY: Yes. I think that puts your finger on it. I take Renato's point, but I think it's a real indication of the depth, of the outbursts in the department, the possibility there would be more. I mean, the department is looking at actual sort of paralysis, 2,000 former prosecutors, all of the judges, that would be a very hard thing for Barr to have on his watch.

And, well, I take the point that he's, as Laura Ingraham put it on another channel, say, don't worry, I got this. He'll still do what Trump wants. I do think he's trying to push back and his hope - I agree also whether or not you can't make him stop completely, but the goal and this is why he sat down with Cipollone, who's his acolyte, by the way, and he hopes can influence Trump is to try to get him to do it less in the context of specific cases, specific judges, specific sentencing.

We'll see if it works. But that's his hope, because that's what really puts them between a rock and a hard place.

LEMON: All right, let's take a listen to the President. This is earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm actually, I guess, the chief law enforcement officer of the country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: OK. So Renato, the President has been called out by former Justice Department officials, he is frustrated with the DOJ. Is this just a way of showing that he is the boss. He's like, listen, he's the chief law enforcement officer, shouldn't Bill Barr - hey, wait, buddy.

MARIOTTI: Yes. Well, not only that, look, we saw Trump saying I have the authority to get involved in investigations. He said that recently. Trump likes to think that he's all powerful. He said that Article Two lets him do whatever he wants.

And frankly, I think, he doesn't like being told that there's things he can't do. He doesn't like being told that there are limits to his power. I think that this is his way of expressing that.

LEMON: Yes. So listen, Harry, we have to get to the President's 11 pardons and commutations today.

LITMAN: Yes.

LEMON: What's going on here? Is he trying to send a message and what is that message?

LITMAN: I think they're exactly have a piece with the Stone debacle. Yes, his power is strong and plenary, but all presidents have exercised it in ways and procedures designed to be fair. And here, Trump has completely bulldozed the pardon attorney, all the regulations, the applications you make, the showing that you're contrived and you've changed her life.

All of that, he's jettison to just basically pick whom, guys he kind of likes that sort of are good old Trump guys.

LEMON: Yes.

LITMAN: And so that kind of exercise of the power by fiat and caprice, he may assert that he can do it, but it's anathema to how it's always been exercised. And of course, it doesn't at all take into account how like Blagojevich and Kerik, how they compare with the 10s of thousands, many of them black and brown, of course, defendants who are right now in federal prison. Their kids don't like seeing them in orange jumpsuits either.

Trump doesn't think about that. He just goes to his guys.

LEMON: Yes. But, Harry, we're talking about people convicted of fraud, of extortion, false statements. People in Trump's orbit have been accused or convicted of similar charges. Is he trying to desensitize the public to more pardons, potentially Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn?

LITMAN: Yes. Right. So look, that's a theory. I see that is happening if it happens after the election and he'll do it if he wants to. But I really think these are the guys - you're 100 percent right, they're sort of in his own image. They're not only corrupt, but they're unapologetic and they're high status guys who do whatever they want.

I think the bigger thing is he thinks it'll play well with the base and these the guys he wants to exercise this power on. Is it may be softening the ground for the Stones and Manaforts? Yes. But I see that it's coming in awhile anyway and I think he's got - he wants to do it, because he wanted to do it.

LEMON: Renato, here is the former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, what he said in NBC. We called him Blago when I worked in Chicago.

LITMAN: Right.

LEMON: This is him heading home to Chicago after his pardon, watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROD BLAGOJEVICH, FORMER ILLINOIS GOVERNOR: I want to express my most profound and everlasting gratitude to President Trump. He's got like, obviously, a big fan in me and if you're asking me what my party affiliation is, I'm a Trump-ocrat.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[00:10:06]

LEMON: Shocking to see his gray hair - this big head of black hair, but now it's all gray. That's just what President Trump will want to hear. But what about the people Chicago, what do they think of Blagojevich?

MARIOTTI: Rod Blagojevich is the one person who's managed to unite Illinois Republicans and Illinois Democrats. We literally had the Governor who's a Democratic and the entire Republican congressional delegation condemning this move today. Blago is pretty much disliked by everyone across the spectrum here in Illinois. I think people want to see less of him.

He's somebody, you said, people in Trump's image. Blago is someone very much in Trump's image and that he sort of lived in his alternative reality where he's still (going adding). Now that he's out of prison, he's still trying to win over voters and build a base of support. He's sort of living in his own universe and here he's pretty much hated around here.

LEMON: Renato, the selling of the seat was just the topping on the sundae. I mean I remember all of the other reporting and stuff that he did when he was Governor. I mean, yes, it is Chicago politics, Illinois politics season, whatever.

All right. Thank you both. I appreciate it.

LITMAN: Thanks. Thanks Renato.

LEMON: In less than 24 hours, Michael Bloomberg will be on the debate stage for the first time in the 2020 race. He's been on a roll lately, but how will he do against more seasoned candidates? We shall see.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:15:42]

LEMON: We are less than 24 hours away from the Las Vegas presidential debate. Six Democrats will hit the debate stage ahead of the Nevada caucuses on Saturday, including one newcomer, the former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. How will he change the debate dynamics?

Joining me now, Ryan Lizza, Chief Washington Correspondent for Politico and the Daily Beast Senior Columnist, Mr. Matt Lewis. Both of you joining us from Washington, D.C. OK. Good evening, Ryan, or morning depending on which part of the country you're in.

Ryan, what can we expect from Bloomberg's first time on the Democratic debate stage? Is it going to be rusty? We know we've heard he's not such a good debater. Folks here in New York know that. What can we expect?

RYAN LIZZA, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, look, the debate kind of levels things, it flattens things. He has this monster advantage when it comes to the media. He is completely saturating every available advertising avenue for him. He has spent more money than all of his opponents combined, $400 million.

Just think about how insane that number is.

LEMON: OK. But that is the same when you have $60 billion.

LIZZA: Oh, for him, it's nothing.

LEMON: Yes.

LIZZA: Yes, that's pocket change, absolutely.

LEMON: Yes.

LIZZA: His unlimited resources. So the debate stage, all of that advantage is - goes away. These debates still get big ratings. And judging from the last two weeks, especially in the last week, you're going to have at least three or four candidates up there who seem to think he is their main obstacle to sort of getting to the finals.

Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, they have all been hitting Bloomberg. Another reason that the dynamics of this race have been very beneficial to Bernie Sanders because a lot of the Democrats believe that Bloomberg is suddenly the biggest obstacle, not Sanders. Obviously, that's good for Bernie.

LEMON: Yes.

LIZZA: But for a Democratic primary, he's got a lot of issues that he's going to have to answer for. All of these other candidates, they've already done that part of the campaign. They've already apologized for their sins. He's going to have to do it on a whole host of issues and they're going to come after him.

LEMON: OK. So, Matt, listen, most of the Democratic fields we just mentioned they've already been out campaigning for over a year. It seem like a crazy plan that Bloomberg could skip the early states and then jump right to Super Tuesday, but as of now, it's working.

LIZZA: So crazy line of work.

MATT LEWIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes. It is. It is and we're always looking at history. How silly of us, Rudy Giuliani tried to go straight to Florida. Look how that worked out. Well, it doesn't work till it works and so it's working, but that's

why I think it might be a mistake for Bloomberg to even do this debate. I mean, it's working. He's got these great TV ads. He hasn't been in the debates, so he's been able to sort of be above the fray. Let them fight it out and now he's changing the script.

Now, I understand why he has to. Maybe it would look like he's ducking the debate if all of a sudden he's eligible and he doesn't do it. I would have really thought about how can we avoid this, could we come up with some excuse to instead have a rally or debates, food fights, we're not into that.

This is high risk, because we haven't seen him debate. It's been working. It could all fall apart.

LEMON: Were you eavesdropping on my dinner this weekend with a bunch of folks who were saying, if I were him, I wouldn't even get on the stage. He's the greatest conceptual candidate ever. I would stick with the ads.

LEWIS: Well, I would.

LEMON: Did we talk about that last week, Ryan in New Hampshire a little bit? Yes? No? I don't know.

LIZZA: I think so. Yes. I mean, yes, because everyone has been sort of gaming out what his strategy should be and to a lot of people who thought - who were skeptical that he could continue to be a part of the conversation as these early states - I was very skeptical, because I thought it would be very hard for him to get much attention when we're all talking about who won Iowa, who won New Hampshire, who's doing well in Nevada.

[00:20:10]

But through $400 million in spending and pretty good media team and frankly the polling, his poll numbers have boosted up so that makes him part of the conversation no matter what. He's managed to stay in the conversation in the middle of primaries and caucuses that he is not even competing in.

LEMON: But listen, Matt, the issue is he's surging, depending on what your definition is, he's rising in the polls but the issue is no one is emerging in the sort of moderate or centrist lane, right?

LEWIS: Yes.

LEMON: There's a big seller as Bernie is. Bernie is in this left lane, but go on. You know what I'm getting it.

LEWIS: Yes. No, I think you're exactly right and I think the Bloomberg's bet was always contingent on a couple of things. Number one that Joe Biden would collapse.

LEMON: Wait. Wait. Hold on. Hold on, Matt, let's just look at that. Let's just look at that. Look at these polls, he's at 15 percent. He hasn't been on one ballot. He hasn't done one debate. He's at 14 percent in one poll and then he's up. In another poll, he's beyond 19 percent. He's surpassed the Vice President, the former Vice President of the United States.

But I mean, it's just extraordinary. Go on, sorry.

LEWIS: Yes. Now I'm going to say, so first of all, the ads have been great. They've really worked clearly. You throw a couple of hundred million dollars at something and maybe it works out for you. But it was always contingent, Bloomberg's strategy was always contingent on a couple things.

One is that Joe Biden would collapse. That Biden had lost a step that he was not going to fill that niche of being the frontrunner moderate lane candidate, Bloomberg bet right on that one. I think the other thing that Bloomberg needed was not only that Biden would collapse, but that nobody would emerge (inaudible) ...

LEMON: Well, that's what he said. Is he right?

LEWIS: Yes.

LEMON: He's like, remember what he said, I'm looking around at the current crop of candidates and I don't think that anyone of them can beat this president. Do you think he's right?

LEWIS: I think none of them - there isn't a Barack Obama. There's nobody that you're like, wow, this is the guy clearly. If he can win the nomination, this is the guy. This is the gal even.

There is no clear frontrunner and if Bernie Sanders had won - remember, Iowa. That how it was jumbled and it was such a mess. I mean, if Bernie had clearly won Iowa and gotten the credit for clearly winning Iowa, then he goes to New Hampshire and clearly wins New Hampshire. I also think that might have limited Bloomberg's ability, but none of that happened.

LEMON: OK. I want to get this in - Ryan, let me play this for you. This is Katie Couric reporting on Bloomberg's strategy, watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KATIE COURIC, AWARD-WINNING JOURNALIST: I talked to somebody from the Bloomberg campaign, they said they're hiring an expert on narcissism and combining that - no, this is for real.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They should.

COURIC: Combining that person with a comedy writer to get in Donald Trump's head.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: Wow. I mean, listen, I will ask Katie, I'll maybe call her after this maybe a little late, but we don't know if that's true, but when you look at Bloomberg's ads, it seems like they have found the right areas to trigger the current president.

LIZZA: When you have unlimited money, why not get the best psychological profilers to help you give you advice about what might work in a general election. So I don't doubt they're going to spend money on all sorts of things that previous campaigns just didn't have the resources to devote to.

So this is not going to be the last time we'll remark on something new and novel and funny that the Bloomberg campaign has said, why not spend some dough on this. He has unlimited resources.

But one thing with what Bloomberg entered the race arguing, part of his argument was he's worried about Bernie Sanders taking over the Democratic Party. He's worried about him ideologically or he doesn't believe he can beat Trump. And you look at those polls that you just showed, Don, his strategy depends on all those other candidates really deflating way beyond where they are right now.

So if you're Bernie Sanders, you're not a dominant frontrunner, but you're the frontrunner right now and when you have proportional, these battles, these prior battles, delegates are doled out proportionally. If you don't get 15 percent, you don't get anything.

But once you build a delegate lead, it's very hard to lose it and so ...

LEMON: Yes, it is. But also if you look at - the reason I asked about the centrist lane, asked Matt about it.

LIZZA: Yes.

LEMON: Is because if you look, let's just say they do as you say collapse or they're deflated, as you said, then the folks from Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and the folks from Joe Biden, and the folks from Amy Klobuchar, one would think that they would move over to the centrist person which would be Bloomberg. I mean, that's what (inaudible) ...

LIZZA: I have some thoughts on that, but I'll let Matt go ...

(CROSSTALK)

[00:25:04]

LEWIS: I think problem we saw on the Republic - we saw this on the Republican primary in 2016.

LEMON: Yes.

LEWIS: They don't leave quick enough. They stick around because they don't get the memo, because they want to wait and have delegates that they can barter in a brokered convention.

LEMON: They're too close to the forest.

LEWIS: So that's going to be the problem.

LIZZA: But Don, you can't just assume that all of those votes go to the (inaudible) or moderate.

LEMON: No, no, no, I agree. I said the conventional wisdom, we don't know.

LIZZA: Voters, they're not as ...

LEMON: But I got to go and I got to tell everybody that they should read Matt's piece. Matt, we didn't get a chance to talk about it. Your piece is titled, Mike Bloomberg, Are Democrats Now Turning to an Authoritarian of Their Own? Where you argue that they're offering voters a kinder and less corrupt authoritarianism, so we'll talk about that. It's in the Daily Beast. Thank you, sir.

LIZZA: Thanks, Don.

LEWIS: Thank you.

LEMON: Thank you both, gentlemen. I'm sorry not just sir but sirs.

One of President Obama's former senior advisors has a warning for Democrats and he is going to share it with me right here next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:30:27]

LEMON: So now more on the state of the race. A former senior advisor to President Barack Obama says that Democrats shouldn't look to 2016 for ideas on how to beat Trump. That person is Dan Pfeiffer. He's the author of the new book, it's called Un-Trumping America: A Plan to Make America a Democracy Again. That would be MADA.

DAN PFEIFFER, FORMER SENIOR ADVISER TO PRESIDENT OBAMA: MADA, it gets some mada hats, yes.

LEMON: It get some mada hats.

PFEIFFER: Yes.

LEMON: Thank you for joining us.

PFEIFFER: Of course, thanks for having me.

LEMON: Let's talk about the poll. You saw the new national poll out just tonight from NBC and The Wall Street Journal showing that Sanders leads with 27 percent, moderate splitting their vote among various candidates, including Bloomberg. How do you see the state of the race right now? What do you think?

PFEIFFER: I think where we are right now before the Nevada caucus, Bernie Sanders is the prohibitive favorite to become the Democratic nominee.

LEMON: Yes.

PFEIFFER: Now, we have four big events over the next two weeks, two debates, two elections that could change that and we've seen just in how Iowa and New Hampshire played out that doing well in these early contests can move your numbers. But in a fractured field like this where you have Sanders with the lead and a bunch of candidates right at that 15 percent number, you need to get delegates. Sanders is in a very commanding position.

LEMON: Am I right you said that Democrats shouldn't look to 2016 for lessons, they should look to 2012 for President Barack Obama or candidate Barack Obama (inaudible) ...

PFEIFFER: President, yes.

LEMON: President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney?

PFEIFFER: Yes. Well, I think it's a point to recognize. Defeating an incumbent is an entirely different matter than winning an open race.

LEMON: OK.

PFEIFFER: And so I think we should look at what Obama did right and what Romney did wrong. Romney was obsessed with Obama. They wanted to make the entire election a referendum on Obama. We should not make that mistake with Trump. If we make this all about Trump, we're playing his game.

And people know what is wrong with Trump. They know why Trump is bad. So it's up to our Democratic nominee to make the case for themselves, making a choice between two big competing visions.

Second mistake Romney made was he was stuck in the right-wing propaganda Fox News bubble and so he was running against this caricature of Obama. This unAmerican Barack Hussein Obama, educated in madrassa, born in Kenya ...

LEMON: Interesting.

PFEIFFER: ... not against the Obama that most voters saw, who even they disagree with it, I thought he was a good man, an honest man, a family man who's doing the best he could for the country. And so we also have to recognize that not every voter sees Trump the way we do on Twitter.

LEMON: OK. I'm just going to say, so because the voters see this current president, they're getting it - I don't know, I guess they're seeing it - well, he makes himself a caricature.

PFEIFFER: I think he is a caricature, but they have a nuanced view of him. These are the voters who are going to decide the election. The ones who went from Obama to Trump who voted for Mitt Romney and voted for Hillary Clinton and now trying to figure out what they're going to do.

LEMON: OK.

PFEIFFER: And so they know he's dishonest. They know he can be rude, and racist and misogynistic. But they think he's trying to change the system. I think they're wrong. But we have to recognize - it's a start from that starting point to know where they are.

LEMON: Because he makes himself a caricature, but if you watch Fox News, they don't make him into a caricature.

PFEIFFER: That's right.

LEMON: And that's how they see him as not ...

PFEIFFER: That's right.

LEMON: ... as somewhat normal.

PFEIFFER: Yes. Right.

LEMON: OK. So you said don't make it all about Trump no matter how agree, just under your second point, the economy. It's hard to beat the company, particularly if the economy is good. And you say Democrats need to find ways to frame the economy in their own terms.

So talk to me about how that worked for the former President Obama.

PFEIFFER: Sure. Sure, absolutely. And I write a chapter in the book that's an entire memo to the nominee. We'll have him three days, three weeks, the third night of the convention, whenever that is and I talked about the economy a lot.

And in 2020, we have the inverse challenge of what Obama had in 2012, 2012 unemployment was still really high, recovery lagging, growth is slower than we would like.

LEMON: Yes.

PFEIFFER: And so Romney wanted to make an up or down vote on whether the economic performance was great. Obama reframe the question to say how is the economy working generally, but how is it working for you, how fair is it, who's going to fight to make the economy more fair. We turned it into a battle between two competing ideas.

So here the unemployment rate is leveled. The question we should not say is how is he going to be working, how is it fair ...

LEMON: How are people feeling.

PFEIFFER: ... yes. So I think the argument against Trump is not the unemployment rate is low and the stock market is high. It is corporations never made more money. They never paid less in taxes.

LEMON: OK. Your final point that I want to talk about, before we run out of time. You say Democrats need to get out of the liberal Twitter bubble. You say Twitter isn't real life?

PFEIFFER: I say it is not real life. It affects real life as we are experiencing.

LEMON: Can you please say that again loudly for those people in the back? PFEIFFER: Yes. Twitter is not real life but it has a disproportionate

share of the political conversations country and campaigns are reacting to it.

[00:35:00]

Reporters are reacting to it. We have to recognize that most voters are not on Twitter and they're seeing a very different race than the one we see every day as the Twitter is being mainlined into our cerebrum.

LEMON: Especially if you look at who actually votes among Democrats, right?

PFEIFFER: Yes.

LEMON: And the Democratic Party is made of.

PFEIFFER: Yes.

LEMON: It's not really the people who had the loud mouths and I don't the people with the loudest voice on Twitter.

PFEIFFER: Yes. And there is a group of people in Twitter who are very politically engaged. They mainline politics. They're probably watching right now. They listen to podcast, so I hope they buy this book. But most voters have not tuned into this race at all.

LEMON: Do you think Democrats are doing a good job so far, the ones who are on the - with this? Because you gave some really, really good advice and I'm not sure if they're paying attention.

PFEIFFER: I think these candidates, they have a different task right now. They have to try to persuade the exact voters we're talking about to win the nomination. But I think you hear in their messages a lot of ways in which I can project it out being very effective against Trump.

LEMON: Are you perplexed or surprised by Bloomberg, considering he's only been in ads?

PFEIFFER: Well, I think $300 million worth of ads can buy you a lot. I think the question will be is, is this real supporter or is this a sugar high. What happens when Bloomberg, the idea of Bloomberg, the brand becomes Bloomberg the name with the record.

LEMON: Yes.

PFEIFFER: And we'll find that out on the debate stage.

LEMON: We were out of time like five minutes ago in this conversation, but I love having you.

PFEIFFER: Thank you, Don.

LEMON: The conversations are great. Please come back.

PFEIFFER: Of course.

LEMON: Thank you so much. The book is called Un-Trumping America: A Plan to Make America a Democracy Again. Thank you, Dan Pfeiffer. I appreciate it.

PFEIFFER: Thank you, sir.

LEMON: Is there any one candidate who can unify the Democrats at this point? We're going to take a look at what former president Barack Obama has been saying in private during his primary so far, this primary so far.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:40:33]

LEMON: The Democratic race heating up. The candidates facing off on the debate stage tomorrow night ahead of the Nevada caucuses on Saturday. Bernie Sanders surging in the polls, Michael Bloomberg is gaining a lot of ground as well.

So what's Barack Obama, the former President, what does he say about the state of the race so far? Well, joining me now is Gabriel Debenedetti. He's a National Correspondent for New York Magazine.

Gabriel, I really appreciate you coming on. Listen, your latest piece in New York Magazine it says What Obama Is Saying in Private About the Democratic Party. I'm going to put up this quote about why we haven't heard from him so far. But you say, it is an obvious choreographed strategy to stay out of the spotlight.

So talk to me about that. If the race is in that state, will even Barack Obama be able to bring Democrats together?

GABRIEL DEBENEDETTI, NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT, NEW YORK MAGAZINE: Well, that's exactly why he's staying out of the spotlight, because it's so messy right now. He doesn't want to be seen to be weighing in one way or the other, because he knows that he's sort of singularly positioned to bring this party all together later on, probably this spring or this summer, once there's a little bit more clarity.

He's been making clear to all of the campaigns into basically anyone who comes and asks him that he's going to back whoever the nominee ends up being. But there are people around him who often make the point that this might not be clear for a very long time and the party is really going to have to have a moment where it is able to come together if it's going to be able to compete against Donald Trump.

Now, Obama thinks that he's the person who's going to be able to do that. That's not to say that he's not watching the race pretty closely. He's just not going to weigh in and he's not going to endorse anyone until the absolute moment that it's clear who the nominee actually is.

LEMON: And he's even careful about what he says in private because he doesn't want it to get out. Listen, several of the candidates, Democratic candidates already tied themselves to the former president. Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He's been a leader throughout the country for the past 12 years, Mr. Michael Bloomberg is here.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Leadership in action, Mayor Bloomberg and President Obama work together in the fight for gun safety laws.

OBAMA: Elizabeth understands what I strongly believe that a strong, growing economy begins with a strong and thriving middle class.

Joe's candid honest counsel made me a better president and a better commander in chief. And all of this makes him the finest vice president we have ever seen. The best part is he's nowhere close to finished.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: So an actual public endorsement from the former president, what is that worth to a candidate?

DEBENEDETTI: It would be the most powerful endorsement they could probably get at this point. He's obviously the most famous or most popular Democrat within the party right now. There's a reason that all of these people are running ads with him.

President Obama himself has found it kind of amusing that there are all of these ads about him at this point, especially after what he's noted to some of his friends, especially after a few months ago there was this big debate within the primary field about all of the shortcomings of his candidacy. But he hasn't approved any of these ads, even though there is some commentary that kind of feels like these ads are implying an endorsement from him.

People around him have sort of chafed especially at the Bloomberg ads, because there has been a bit of a complicated history between Michael Bloomberg and Barack Obama. Bloomberg, of course, didn't endorse Obama in 2008 and only endorsed him at the very end in 2012 and was critical with some of his signature policies like Obamacare.

But listen, President Obama knows, of course, that his endorsement will be sort of the final imprimatur on whoever the nominee is. So he's been pretty clear. He met with all of the candidates basically before they got into the race, when they were asked to meet with him and he basically said to each of them, I love you all, but don't expect me to weigh in.

And that includes, by the way, Joe Biden, who was his former vice president.

LEMON: His former vice president. Yes.

DEBENEDETTI: Yes. LEMON: We shall see. Listen, last time around, he campaigned against

President Trump and it didn't convince folks, otherwise, we'll see if it works this time if it's successful. Thank you very much. We appreciate you joining us, Gabe.

DEBENEDETTI: Thank you.

LEMON: Black voters have overwhelmingly backed Democrats for decades. But should the party be worried about President Trump's pursuit of those voters this year? I'll talk to the experts.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[00:48:39]

LEMON: For decades, black voters have overwhelmingly backed Democratic candidates. But as the 2020 race heats up, President Trump is making a play for those same voters. Will it be enough to break through? Joining me now to discuss is Ismail White and Chryl Laird. The co-authors of the new book, it's called Steadfast Democrats How Social Forces Shaped Black Political Behavior.

I'm so happy to have both of you on. Thank you so much for joining.

ISMAIL WHITE, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, DUKE UNIVERSITY: Thank you.

LEMON: Ismail, I'm going to start with you. The black vote is key to winning in 2020.

CHRYL LAIRD, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR, BOWDOIN COLLEGE: Thank you.

LEMON: You and Chryl had studied this. You have a piece out, it's in The Atlantic. It's titled Why Black Voters Stick With Democrats, so tell me why do they.

WHITE: Well, Don, the reason black voters stick with Democrats is because within the black community, the idea of supporting the Democratic Party has become a real expectation of political behavior.

LEMON: Yes.

WHITE: And this expectation is maintained by other black Americans through their social networks. And that's what the book Steadfast Democrats is about. The role that black Americans, social networks and social connections play in maintain in their Democratic Party support.

LEMON: So Chryl, listen, you watch the State of the Union, many people did, I'm sure. And if you didn't, you saw clips of it that this President has been openly wooing the black community with this Super Bowl ad and his guest at the State of the Union.

[00:50:04]

As I said, he loves to talk about jobs and criminal justice reform. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: African-American youth unemployment has reached an all time low. African-American poverty has declined to the lowest rate ever recorded. Everybody said that criminal justice reform couldn't be done, but I got it done and the people in this room got it done.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: So Chryl, so far those appeals haven't persuaded black voters to support Trump, will that change?

LAIRD: I don't think so. I mean, I think the norms that we talk about in the book really needs to be understood that that is maintained through the social interactions that African-Americans have with one another and there's an expected behavior of the Democratic partisanship. So these appeals although - note, it's trying to symbolize that there is some movement in the Republican party and their support for African-American issues.

In reality, I think a lot of people would see them as a little bit more symbolic than substantive changes. This is not a major shift of the party actually in their politics. And in fact that maybe those appeals are actually being made to show that he's compassionate towards African-Americans and it's actually made to being appeals to like white suburban voters.

LEMON: White suburban women so they won't feel guilty about voting for someone that African-Americans according in the polls deemed to be racist.

LAIRD: Exactly. Right.

LEMON: Yes.

LAIRD: So if they're concerned about affiliating themselves with somebody who is being seen as racist by people of color, this is one way to alleviate that fear.

LEMON: Yes. So this president likes to tout his support among African-American basically saying that it's unprecedented in some way. That is hyperbole because in 2016 Trump got 8 percent of the black vote. Republicans, historically since 1968, have averaged around 12 percent.

One analysis in the Washington Post says that if Trump did get 12 percent of the black vote that he could win again. Can you think he can peel away that many black voters?

LAIRD: I'm not sure if these appeals are going to really do that, because I think one thing you have to think about as well as the amount of African-Americans who have a strong sentiment regarding their not really supporting Trump at all, that they are actually wanting him to be pulled out of office. And these appeals unnecessarily really deal with the issues that they would be concerned about in terms of those interests, although he's talking about economic issues, unemployment. I mean, the Republican Party itself has been seen and viewed in ways

that are particularly problematic in terms of how they stand on race. And so those appeals, I don't think, would be enough or sufficient to be able to peel off the amount that he's thinking it's going to do. Again, I think it really is going to do much more with trying to make sure that people who might think he's racist I hear that people of color are thinking that he might be racist won't feel that way about him.

LEMON: So, Ismail, let's talk about your piece that you write. You said and I quote, "If Republicans want black votes, their strategy should be simple," you say. "End racial segregation, which not only leads to societal inequities that most African-Americans struggle deplore, but also reinforces the social structures and conventions by which black adults encourage one another to vote Democratic."

So let's break that down, if you will. Why does segregation reinforce the black community's ties to the Democratic party?

WHITE: Oh, segregation is what helps to maintain the racial isolation and helps to create these sort of black social networks that helped to enforce norms and expectations of political behavior. You can imagine if blacks were perhaps more integrated into white society, particularly in the south, where the white population itself is somewhat more conservative and certainly more Republican.

You could imagine that if black Americans were integrated into white communities, had social networks and closer ties with white Americans that there would likely, eventually emerge a stronger support among those African-Americans for the Republican Party. Just because they wouldn't be beholden to the expectations of other African-Americans, they have these other social networks.

LEMON: What you're saying is that segregation serves to keep people in line who might otherwise vote for other candidates.

WHITE: Yes. Yes, exactly. Right. For black Americans, their support for the Democratic Party, this sort of black voting for the Democratic Party is empowering. And what I mean by that is that you can imagine if black Americans are able to sort of get a voice within the Democratic Party because they represent such a disproportionate share of the Democratic voters.

I mean, think about it like this election, we're talking about reparations.

[00:55:00]

Imagine if black Americans were more evenly distributed across the two parties, neither party would really have an incentive to discuss the issues that relate to black Americans because they wouldn't have as much of a share within any single party.

LEMON: Got it. Chryl, you write about social media, the social media equivalent of that, which I thought was very interesting. You talk about Black Twitter citing the backlash of both Steve Harvey and Kanye West faced when they seem to be warming up to President Trump. Talk about that for me.

LAIRD: Yes. Yes, I think one thing that people often think about is what's going on with black institutions and particularly these places where these norms are get reinforced and that's what Ismail and I talk about in the book in terms of the racial isolation. But we see these new mediums where black individuals are able to not only engage and have conversations about politics, but also reinforce norms in those spaces.

And Black Twitter serves one of those as one of those locations, so people can come online and discuss these issues. And also in terms of public disclosure, individuals who are behaving in ways that seem to go outside of what is being expected by the group (inaudible) ...

LEMON: You think it's that powerful, Black Twitter? Because it's only like a small portion of citizens and even a smaller portion of the electorate.

LAIRD: It is.

LEMON: Go on, I'm sorry.

LAIRD: It is. No, I think it is because although it's a small portion of the electorate, it is amplified. I think more media agencies and outlets are starting to pay attention to what happens on Black Twitter. I've heard of Black Twitter correspondence.

LEMON: White men Twitter in general.

LAIRD: (Inaudible) like L.A. times.

LEMON: I mean, Twitter in general, but I (inaudible) ...

LAIRD: Oh, Twitter in general in terms of its ...

LEMON: Yes. Yes.

LAIRD: ... in terms of its power.

LEMON: Yes.

LAIRD: I do think it has a certain amount of influence, because there are levels of influencers who are on there. I also think it's hard to escape the noise of what Twitter creates when that type of ...

LEMON: Very good.

LAIRD: ... information gets disseminated and starts to get trending essentially online.

LEMON: Yes. Yes. And that Black Twitter is real, I know. Trust me.

LAIRD: It's real, yes.

LEMON: Thank you both. I appreciate your time.

WHITE: Thank you, (inaudible) ...

LAIRD: Thank you.

LEMON: Great article and great book. Thank you so much. And thanks for watching, everyone. Our coverage continues.