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NYT: Internal Trump Administration Says Daily U.S. Death Toll Will Increase To 3,000 By June; FDA Tightening The Rules On New Antibody Tests. Aired 12:30-1p ET
Aired May 04, 2020 - 12:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[12:30:00]
ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Are we better off now for having done that mitigation? The experts I'm talking to say, yes, but we still are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination.
What these numbers also tell us is that as we start to open back up, despite the fact that things aren't as good as we would like them to be, we are starting to open back up the country. And that's where you get the numbers that you just mentioned from the CDC modelers. It really is just simple logic.
When you tell people, hey, you can go to bars, you can go to get your nails done, you can sit in a restaurant, those numbers are going to go up. The closer people get to one another, the more cases we're going to see, the more cases we see, the more deaths we're going to see.
JOHN KING, CNN HOST: And I wonder if we have this chart, if we do if we could put it up from this document the projected deaths per day because they have a red line, which is their projection and then you see the lighter red space around it there. That's essentially the range of the projection. So the red line is the projected deaths and you see it going up by June 1st from where it is today, significantly up.
But then you see the blue dots, those are the actual reported deaths. So Elizabeth, looking at this chart, reported deaths right now are running higher than the model. That doesn't mean that will continue to be so. But the reported deaths right now this was their model, you would have to say right now, the reported deaths are coming in on the high side even a little above the model.
COHEN: Right. And so one thing we need to remember here, John, is that all of this when we look into the future is modeling. And modeling is based on assumptions and basically educated guesses, but they're pretty well educated guesses. And so these guesses always will have margins, kind of like in a political poll, it could be anywhere from here to here. And here's sort of the middle that we're arriving at.
And so we have to keep that in mind. And so when you relate it to what's already happened, what's already happened, happened, those are those are facts. When we look out into the future, we're making educated guesses.
KING: Educated guesses, looking at those numbers. That's a little frightening as think about it. Elizabeth Cohen, really appreciate it.
Let's go straight now like to the White House in CNN's Kaitlan Collins. Kaitlan, this playing out, you know, the President last night revised his death total, he had to. It's obvious. He was saying it would be 60 something. It's already past that. The President now says 80,000 or 90,000, maybe 100,000.
If you look at this document put out by his own Centers for Disease Control and FEMA, and other agencies helping there this reopening that the President continues to push even pushing states that have not met his own guidelines right now like Virginia last night, when you look at this document and the medical projections, the case projections, the death projections, this is a giant political risk for the President to being -- to be so aggressive when his own people are telling them these numbers are going to get worse.
KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, this is a really sobering document. And you've got to look back at what the President was saying last night when he was revising that death toll upward. It's so strikingly different than what the President was saying even just two weeks ago when he was predicting that the death toll was going to be substantially under 100,000. He said maybe even as low as 50,000.
Of course we have blown past that now. Last night he was telling "Fox News" in that town hall, it could go anywhere from 75,000 to 100,000. And now this document and you've got to look at the fact that there is this document now being circulated, put together by FEMA and HHS. You've got the president revising the death toll upward yet, John. He is still pushing for reopening.
And last night, he made that clear, saying that he still thinks that many states should be moving toward reopening their economies. He talked about people going back to school in the fall, saying that he was competent that could happen. And then of course, saying that he feels confident there will be a vaccine by the end of this year, which is incredibly optimistic, even if you're listening to his health experts who say if everything goes right, then potentially they could have a vaccine ready by January which of course is hinting on a lot.
But it is notable that even in the face of a document like this, where it's so sobering talking about with these deaths, this death toll could look like and how much higher it could get. They are still pushing for the reopening that health experts have said can make this death toll even worse.
KING: Kaitlan Collins with reporting from the White House.
Let's bring into the conversation, CNN medical analysts and primary care doctor, Saju Mathew. Sir, thanks so much for being here.
Dr. Mathew, when you read these numbers, the forecast says we could get to 200,000 new cases each day, 200,000 cases each day by the end of this month, it's about 25,000 a day. Now, number one, is that a projection that tracks with the way you would analyze this. And number two, I don't know the right words for it. But if pushing a reopening at a time when you see a projection, then we're going to go from 25,000 cases a day to 200,000 cases a day. Wow.
DR. SAJU MATHEW, CNN MEDICAL ANALYST: John, I'm actually not surprised. You know, if you look at the basic model of the way this virus behaves, it's all down to just a mathematical model. There are theories out there about how to kill the virus in four to six weeks. And guess what we have to do, John, in order to kill a virus in four to six weeks, the entire world, technically would have to go into a shutdown at the same time.
And I'm talking about shelter and places with no run to the grocery store. You can't go to the park. That is what it will take to kill this virus. Obviously that's not realistic. We didn't shut down at the same time in the U.S. with all states, we can reopen at the same time.
[12:35:14]
I'm in Georgia, John, and we're opening too early. I mean, I'm being honest about that. We're not ready to go to the bars. We're not ready to go to the salon. So to be honest with you, I'm not surprised at the projection. It's really based on how exponentially this virus can grow. One person can spread the virus to three people. And you can imagine in a week's time, we're talking about hundreds and thousands of new cases.
KING: And so walk through this with me in the sense that you say you're in Georgia, you're in Georgia and you don't like it. You think the governor is being too aggressive. We will know in 10 days, two weeks, when we start to see the case reports in Georgia, when we start to see the case reports in Texas, the states that have been more aggressive in 10 days, two weeks, maybe 20 days. You'll see how it will go up. The question is how much is it going up. Are you convinced that the governors, the President is pushing reopen right now?
Again, he pushed Virginia last night even though it's nowhere near the President's own reopening guidelines. The President put out these guidelines said, the governor should follow them. Virginia is not even close. And the President saying, hey, you're going to slow reopening your state. Are you convinced this is a political opinion I guess as much as a medical opinion, that will there be circuit breakers in place?
The governor of New York was just talking about, when you start to reopen, if the rate of transmission starts to spike, if hospitalizations start to spike, you close the valve. Do you have confidence in your state, for example, that would happen?
MATHEW: You know, John, I can speak as a physician, I'm a public health specialist as well. And if you look at the numbers, the numbers don't lie. Our cases are going up. Our death rates are going up. We are not even following the minimal White House guidelines of a downward trend of two weeks. So if you look at the numbers, it's fairly easy. I've got the numbers just like anybody else can look up the numbers. So when the governor made the announcement, yes. I mean, I'm respectful of our leaders. And I realized that I can just speak as a physician. And politicians have to worry about so many other things. I'm not envious of the decisions they have to make.
But as a physician, yes, John, I'm very concerned. And we are not ready. This is not a victory lap. As Elizabeth Cohen mentioned, we have made some efforts to quieten the virus, that's the word that I would use, not kill the virus, but quieting the virus. And we're going to see in two to four weeks what really is going to end up happening with the virus in Georgia and other states that are opening too early.
KING: Right. It's hard to see when you hold this up, but this is the projected cases per day. I'll move it over a little bit if I can. You just see it going up and up and up. I just want you, doctor, you're a medical professional, so I want you to answer, give your response to somebody out there who is saying, look, you cannot keep an economy closed down for this law, as long as we shelter the vulnerable, senior citizens, people who are immunocompromised, shelter the vulnerable, then we're going to get back to this and yes.
Yes, healthy people like you and me, one of us is going to get sick. It's going to be a couple miserable weeks of our life, but we'll be OK. And that that is the course to take. That is the course to take, shelter the vulnerable, learn the lessons, do more testing, but then take the risk, if you will. What's your answer?
MATHEW: You know, you don't want to find out what COVID-19 does to you. As a physician, we know we're all taught to be risk averse. There's no way, John, that as a doctor that I could say, yes, you know, hey, go out there and see what happens. That's gambling. You know, one more life lost is one too many more lives lost.
We have, you know, lost too many Americans and too many people in the world. So as a physician, John, I have to speak from a very conservative approach because I am in the business of saving lives. That's the Hippocratic oath that I took. And once again, the numbers don't lie. We're not ready to open back up. And I think that slowly opening up people economy makes sense.
I realized that people are hurting, people who have lost jobs. You can't survive on a $30,000 income if you're four people in a household. I completely get that, John. But as a physician, I have to still express my caution about opening up too early.
KING: Dr. Mathew, thank you for your insights. More importantly, thank you for your work and for your hustle to help us understand this breaking news, again, a document presented circulating in the Trump administration now projecting that by the end of the month, the number of cases on a daily basis, the number of deaths on a daily basis are going to go up and significantly. Dr. Mathew, thank you so much for your time.
[12:40:34] We're going to take a quick break. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: A major pharmaceutical company, Roche, says it has received emergency approval from the FDA for its new coronavirus antibody test. And while at least 10 tests have been approved this way, the FDA is now changing the rules. Let me bring in CNN Sara Murray. Sara, why the rule change and what is it?
SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, look, John, originally, the FDA was allowing tests to go to market without providing them with the emergency use authorizations. And what we saw was that the market was just flooded with these antibody tests that were unproven. They were inaccurate. Some of them were being marketed fraudulently, you know, there were companies selling them saying that you can essentially use this to diagnose yourself that you can use these test kits at home.
None of that is accurate. And when I talk to FDA officials, they acknowledge, you know, it was a trade off. It was a trade off to loosen rules so that we could get antibody tests into the marketplace but you didn't have those same assurances that these tests were reliable and that they actually worked.
[12:45:08]
So now when you see the FDA come forward and say we've approved a company for an emergency use authorization like they did with Roche, what they're saying is we're confident that this test is going to be actually accurate, and it's going to be effective. And they're now going to require any commercial manufacturer who wants to put a test on the market to go through this process.
They've also set up their own capability within the federal government to be able to actively run validations on these tests on their own so they can say, you know, it looks like this is working pretty well or it looks like this one does not work whatsoever. And then they can tell these companies, you know, you're no longer allowed to market in the U.S.
But this is a change that is coming as the FDA has faced a lot of outside pressure, including from lawmakers to really crack down on the test coming onto the market, John.
KING: It would be nice if you had confidence what was out there was at least worked. Sara Murray, appreciate the reporting there.
When we come back, Mississippi's governor on Friday hit the pause button on reopening as the new week dawns. He's prepared to move forward.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[12:50:30] KING: More now in the hours breaking news, an internal Trump administration estimate predicts that by early June, 3,000 Americans will die every day from the coronavirus that's nearly double where we are right now day to day.
With me now is the Mississippi State epidemiologist Dr. Paul Byers. Doctor, thank you for being with us. The CDC document that's moving around the administration says as the reopening intensifies that case numbers are going to go up quite significantly. The death count is going to go up quite significantly. I'm just wondering that you go through your state and your governor prepares to reopen, what do you -- what are your projections in Mississippi? Again, how big of a growth is acceptable?
DR. PAUL BYERS, MISSISSIPPI STATE EPIDEMIOLOGIST: Well, you know, no deaths are acceptable. And certainly that's not achievable at this point. But, you know, it's a balance. And for Mississippi, when we look at our number of deaths, when we look at our number of cases, when we at looking at our ventilator use and our hospitalizations, what we're seeing right now, is that we're relatively stable in our numbers.
If somewhat trending up, somewhat in our number of cases. But I think what you'll see in Mississippi, and we do work closely with the governor, is a gradual reopening. Predictions are difficult. We need to continue to do from a public health standpoint the messaging and the public health work that's indicated to continue to reduce cases and deaths.
KING: And so I just want to put up, you mentioned that -- I can show you the 14-day trend in Mississippi of new reported cases. The governor had paused on Friday, because there was a spike. My understanding of that is one private lab reported a number of results all at once that should have actually been spread out over the day. So you had a spike if you look at it there.
And if you look at the new confirmed cases, the trend line, the five- day moving average, you've plateaued maybe down a little bit. So in your opinion, if, you know, the governor is ready to reopen, you think as long as it's done in a phased way, you're ready for that?
BYERS: Well, and it's hard to predict the future, right? We need to continue to monitor those cases. I think that what you'll see is a phased approach. But even with reopening, it's important to understand that we still need to have in place those measures to prevent training. As mentioned, so, you know, the recommendations of remaining home, if you don't need to be out will still be important, wear a mask when you go out, continue to social distance.
Those are going to be measures that are going to have to remain in place, and are going to be public health measures that we're going to put out whether businesses are reopening or not.
KING: And then for you, Sir, what -- as an epidemiologist, what are the -- what are you going to watch? Let's -- I'm going to call it phase one. I'm not sure the terminology your governor is going to use. But you have a phase one, you have a reopening. And so then you have a couple of weeks where you're watching, is it ready to transmission? Is it more people coming in to hospitals is just a raw case number.
Of what one or two data points do you think as the country goes through this are most critical to keep an eye on to see if you have to pull back the circuit breaker?
BYERS: Well, certainly, you know, one of our components as we move forward is increased testing and increased availability to testing. So we may, in fact see some increases in the number of cases as we move forward with more testing. Severity of illness is going to be an important component to watch.
Certainly our ventilator, use our hospitalizations, our ICU use, those are going to be important indicators moving forward.
KING: Dr. Byers, very much appreciate your time today best of luck in the days ahead. We'll circle back a couple of weeks to see how you're doing.
BYERS: Thank you. We appreciate it.
KING: Thank you, Sir.
[12:54:34]
Coming up for us, a historic first, the Supreme Court hears oral arguments by teleconference.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
KING: A pair of extraordinary first today for the United States Supreme Court, oral arguments typically a guarded process that only a select few get to hear in real time aired live on C-SPAN. The other first those arguments happened over the phone.
CNN's Ariane de Vogue, is at the Supreme Court. Ariane, case was about trademark protection. But it's really how this played out the supreme -- the Coronavirus, bringing the Supreme Court into a technological age it does not like.
ARIANE DE VOGUE, CNN SUPREME COURT REPORTER: Absolutely right. It was a historic day. Oral arguments by phone and the public got to listen in real time. That's never happened today.
But John, all in all, the court had to be pretty happy with how the arguments played out today. There were few glitches. Keep in mind normally this is a very hot bench. The justices ask a lot of questions. They interrupt each other. They interrupt the lawyers. But today they did things differently. The justices went one by one.
Chief Justice John Roberts started, he sounded a little maybe stilted at the beginning but he certainly warmed up. And here's what's interesting. We heard from Justice Clarence Thomas, Justice Clarence Thomas rarely asked questions during oral argument. I think the last time he did was probably about a year ago, once he went for 10 years without asking a question.
And today, obviously he felt comfortable with how this was playing out. Take a listen to some of his questions.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN ROBERTS, CHIEF JUSTICE OF THE UNITED STATES: Justice Thomas?
CLARENCE THOMAS, ASSOCIATE JUSTICE OF THE SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES: Yes, Ms. Ross, the couple of questions. The -- could booking acquire an 800 number for, that's a vanity number, 1-800 booking for example, that is similar to for 1-800 plumbing, which is a registered mark.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DE VOGUE: You know, and we also there were a few glitches not many at one point, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who often interrupts other people during oral arguments, Chief Justice John Roberts, called on her and the line was silent for just a minute. Listen here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Justice Sotomayor? Justice Sotomayor?
SONIA SOTOMAYOR, ASSOCIATE JUSTICE OF THE SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm sorry chief.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
DE VOGUE: All in all, the arguments were hard more for the lawyers, right. They didn't get that usual give and take with the justices. I talked to a few of them ahead of time. Some were worried they have small children at home, and maybe dogs would interrupt. They were worried about technological glitches. But also they were concerned because the atmosphere was different, right? They couldn't look at justice in the eye to see whether or not they the justice was satisfied with the questions.
But the big experiment for today is over. Now, we'll have more arguments this week, including next week, one of the biggest cases of the term, that's President Trump's bid to shield his financial documents from disclosure, so that's all coming. But today the first day when all right for the Supreme Court, John.
[13:00:09]
KING: Ariane --
