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In-Person Early Voting Ends in 7 States Today; Texas Early Voting Turnout Could Top Total 2016 Vote; Coronavirus Cases Rising in States Across U.S.; Coronavirus Spikes Located in Counties where President Trump Held Large Campaign Rallies; President Trump Reportedly Cancels Plans to Appear at Trump International Hotel in Washington on Election Night. Aired 8-8:30a ET

Aired October 30, 2020 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:00]

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: President Trump plans to visit Michigan where Biden and former President Barack Obama will appear together tomorrow. This morning, more than a third of all registered voters have already cast their ballots.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Joining us now, CNN chief medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta. Sanjay, we put the maps up so people can see how bad this is and which way it's trending. We tell people record number of new cases, hospitalizations steeply on the rise, but you brought up the positivity rate in some states, and that really jumps out and gives an indication of how startlingly bad the pandemic is right now in some places.

SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, people, when they hear positivity rate, just so people understand this term, it's very specific and has to do with giving you a sense of if you're doing enough testing. So we could show the positivity rates, and some of these are the highest positivity rates I have seen throughout this pandemic, 46 percent in South Dakota. What does that mean? That means if you test 100 people, 46 of them have come back positive, which is a very high number. It should be below three percent. But more importantly, it means that you're not catching nearly enough of the people out there who are positive.

Now, I use this example, hopefully it makes sense, but I think we talked about this before on your program. If you're going fishing with a net and you put your net down and you pull the net up and you just have one fish, what do you think? There's probably not a lot of fish in this area. If you put your net down and have a lot of fish in your net, you think there's probably a lot of other fish out there that I'm missing. You can think of positivity rates the same way -- 46 percent positivity rate in South Dakota, that means there's a lot more people out there who are not getting tested, not getting counted, have the virus, don't know it, and are continuing to spread. That's the problem. That's when you start to see this exponential growth.

So people pay attention to the numbers of cases going up. What these public health officials are looking at is the pace at which they're going up, and then these positivity rates, because that's your closest thing to trying to anticipate the future, the next couple of weeks a little bit.

CAMEROTA: But Sanjay, just so I understand, these -- they are not doing randomized testing in many of these places. These are people who had symptoms, right?

GUPTA: Right.

CAMEROTA: These are people who had symptoms and wanted to know if they had the cold, the flu, or coronavirus, and they're finding out half of them in South Dakota have COVID.

GUPTA: That's right. That's exactly right. And then there's a lot of people out there, as you know, Alisyn, who don't have symptoms or who have minimal symptoms, say I don't need to get tested, and they can still spread the virus.

This is just such a fundamentally different and important point about this virus. Typically, when you think of respiratory viruses, you're coughing, you're sneezing, hopefully you're staying home, that's when you are most contagious. As we know, and we have known for some time, really since late February about this virus, is that even before you develop symptoms, in that pre-symptomatic phase, that's when you could be the most contagious. You don't have any idea, you didn't get tested, you're feeling pretty good. That's when you could be the most contagious. And that's why masks are so important for people because they help you protect those around you.

BERMAN: It really means that these states are on fire when it comes to the pandemic right now and the spread of the virus. And these are the very states, some of them, Sanjay, where President Trump is holding mass gatherings, thousands of people, many of them largely unmasked. And you and the medical team here have done some extraordinary reporting looking at the effects of some of the rallies that the president has had over time. And what you found is in the location where these rallies have been, that in 82 percent of the cases, that the number of cases have risen, have spiked, in the month after the president held a rally in these sites, and these counties rising disproportionately, half of them at least, than other counties in the very same states. What does that tell you, Sanjay?

GUPTA: So we went into this investigation eyes wide open, and I've got to tell you, this surprised me a bit, because what I expected to see was that the numbers were going up, because the numbers were going up just about everywhere. So when I first saw that, I thought, OK, the numbers are going up, that's not that surprising. But then, as you said, John, we said, OK, let's look and see a comparison county, other counties in the same state. That seemed like a pretty good sort of control group, if you will. And just as you stated, John, all of a sudden this started to pop out, which was quite startling, that the counties in which these rallies were being held were going up sometimes way out of proportion compared to the surrounding counties, again, with similar demographics, similar viral dynamics before these large gatherings of people. So it makes a difference. And it shouldn't surprise people. And, by

the way, regardless of whether it's a rally or a protest or a bunch of people clustered together in a bar, the virus doesn't care.

[08:05:01]

If you're bringing a lot of people together, and if they're going to be together mask-less and sitting next to each other, staying next to each other for a period of time, that virus, which we show these images on television, I wish people could see the virus, but that virus is moving out of people's mouths and noses, and it loves to find other hosts. And that's what's happening. That's what's happening, and this investigation really revealed that.

CAMEROTA: Look, it stands to reason. Obviously, we suspected that. You told us that was happening, that was the hunch of all medical experts that we talked to at least. But now you've proven it. And it's just the equivalent of if they were still holding being music festivals. They canceled those. I had tickets for that last month.

BERMAN: You take it personally.

CAMEROTA: I take it personally. Those were canceled. You don't go to big arena shows. You don't go to big music festivals. You don't go to big packed sports stadiums right now. All of that's been canceled. The only thing that still approximates to that are these big Trump rallies.

GUPTA: Yes, and people sitting that close to each other for that long mask-less, it is a prescription for the virus to spread. Again, it shouldn't surprise anybody, like you said, but when you really sit there and look at the numbers, and when we look back at these numbers 10 years from now, 50 years from now, it's going to be a real -- a statement about how we handled things. Let me get this straight, the numbers were going up, 80,000 plus people were being infected every day, and that's when you said let's bring thousands of them together in some sort of mass gathering? It makes no sense.

There is a great tracker on the website where you basically you can say, OK, if I have this many people gathered, what's the likelihood the virus is there at that gathering as well. And just about everywhere in the country, if you starting to into a few hundred people gathering, there is a 99 percent chance that the virus is there as well, because people are carrying the virus, they likely don't know it because they haven't been tested, and they're likely spreading it because they feel fine. They think, hey, I'm good to go, and they're likely spreading the virus. And we don't see the ramifications for weeks after.

When we did this investigation, we had to go four weeks earlier and four weeks after and really crunch all that data to get a picture, because you don't get tested right away. You may not have a positive test result right away even if you do. So it takes time. And when you let that message of time occur, you see the impact of this. And it is frightening and it's startling. BERMAN: Sanjay, let's talk briefly about Halloween, if we can. Alisyn

and I have worn the same costumes was did last year. She's Dana Bash, I'm jake tapper, hence all the gray in my hair.

(LAUGHTER)

GUPTA: Mine is Anderson Cooper.

(LAUGHTER)

BERMAN: We're all doing really well. How should do it? How should we try to pull off Halloween tomorrow, Sanjay, if at all?

GUPTA: I don't think you should cancel it. And I'm saying this more as a dad than a doctor because this is a big topic of conversation. We love Halloween in our household. It's probably one of the biggest days of the year. I don't think you should cancel it. I think this idea of just canceling things is psychologically -- it's hard.

But I think you can't do it the way that it was in the past. We've looked at a lot of these guidelines. The idea of going face-to-face trick-or-treating for all the reasons that we are talking about is hard to justify. I think it's just really hard to do that, even if you say, look, as my parents -- as my kids have said to me, we've bubble up. It will be us kids together. We won't touch anybody or get too close to anybody. It's just hard to do. Errors will be made and it's going to be a lot of anxiety to just get it right.

But we're doing -- you know, we're doing costume contests, and we're going to do s'mores outside. Don't cancel it, figure out other ways to make it fun, but safe. I'm really be more of a dad here than a doctor, but the reality is the virus is out there. It doesn't care. The masks that people wear with these costumes aren't the same sort of masks that people need to wear to protect themselves against the virus. So find the other fun things that you like to do and do them still, just avoid actually coming in contact with people outside your household that you may spread the virus to or may spread the virus to you.

It's a little cold outside for my flapper outfit, so I'm just going to go with Dana Bash again.

BERMAN: It's a great costume.

CAMEROTA: It's a great costume. I get more candy that way, actually.

BERMAN: By the way, bobbing for apples always sucks, so no one is going to miss that at all.

CAMEROTA: Talk about a super spreader event.

BERMAN: Yes, exactly.

CAMEROTA: Sanjay, thank you.

GUPTA: You got it. Have a good weekend.

CAMEROTA: You, too.

There's new reporting this morning on a change to President Trump's plans on election night. We have the details next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:13:23]

CAMEROTA: All right, time is running out for President Trump and former V.P. Joe Biden to make their cases. Both candidates are barnstorming battleground states in the Midwest today in their battle to get to that magical 270.

BERMAN: The breathlessness works.

(LAUGHTER)

CAMEROTA: Time is running out. Developing right now, new reporting in the "New York Times" by our colleague Maggie Haberman. She reports that President Trump has called off plans to appear at the Trump International Hotel in Washington on election night, and is likely to stay at the White House instead. What does that mean?

Joining us now, CNN's senior political commentator David Axelrod, he's a former senior advisor to the Obama campaign, also with us CNN political correspondent Abby Phillip.

This is an interesting wrinkle, Abby, because President Trump and his campaign had been fundraising off of the idea that they were going to go to Trump International Hotel for this big party on election night. In fact, in the fundraising solicitation, according to Maggie, it said four more years, this is going to be absolutely epic, in all caps, and now they're canceling that. What should we make of this?

ABBY PHILLIP, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, one thing I should say is that our colleague Kevin Liptak had reported last week that the president had planned to spend most of the night at the White House, but was going to stop by this election night party that was being planned over at the Trump International Hotel. Now it's a little up in the air, as Maggie is reporting. She's reporting the president is no longer planning to go. So we're also looking into whether that drop by plan had been canceled.

[08:15:03]

But I will say that all of this seems to indicate that this is not a campaign that is planning on some big grand celebration.

And it's not as if they wouldn't do it because they've been having big, grand campaign rallies up until this point. It's not an issue necessarily of the coronavirus preventing them from holding a party. They've been very eager to do that many times in recent days.

So, I do think that this is a campaign and a White House that's planning for something low key. The numbers are what they are. There is a path for the president, but it is extremely narrow. And this seems to be a recognition at least in part that they have a

chance -- a shot at this, it's a real shot, but it's not a big window of opportunity by any stretch of the imagination.

BERMAN: Look, if he pulls off a victory I'm sure they will find a way to celebrate and a place to do it. I don't think there is any question about that.

David Axelrod, this just in from CNN's Jeff Zeleny. He reports the Biden campaign is making clear Pennsylvania is their critical focus in the final days of the campaign with Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and their spouses scheduled to campaign in all four corners of the state on Monday and Joe Biden also setting up a campaign stop tomorrow in Pennsylvania.

Why?

DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Because Pennsylvania is the tipping state for them. That's the state they really need to win in. And just -- it's related to the previous discussion because, you know, the president has a narrow pathway to win and if he wins Florida and North Carolina and Georgia, that pathway will still exist.

But we're not going to know about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan on election night. So there's not going to be much for him to celebrate.

If Biden were to win one of those states, they would have plenty to celebrate, but Pennsylvania remains a key battleground state, 20 electoral votes, one of the big three that tipped the presidency to Trump in 2016.

And Biden has a great appeal, one of the -- one of the attributes of his candidacy is a stronger appeal than Hillary Clinton had in these northern states, in these industrial states, and he needs to win this state.

And I think the other element of this, John, is we have a tremendous early vote, but there's still going to be an on-day election and there are indications that Republicans are more likely to vote on election day than Democrats. I think that Biden wants to make sure if there are Democrats who haven't voted, that they do find a way to go to the polling place if they can.

CAMEROTA: Hey, David, I just want to stick with you for a second because of Florida.

AXELROD: Yeah.

CAMEROTA: So there is information that the early in-person vote in at least Miami-Dade County --

AXELROD: Yes.

CAMEROTA: -- which Hillary Clinton won handily but lost the state, that the Republican turnout is far outpacing the Democratic turnout and it is so concerning to the congresswoman, Frederica Wilson, who covers that region that she says she has been trying to sound the alarm to the Biden campaign.

She said they haven't been doing door to door canvassing because of the pandemic, they haven't invested money in the people there on the ground who know how to turn out the vote, here is her quote to "Politico": I screamed, hollered, I called, I lobbied from the top to the bottom. Wilson said of her efforts to turn out operations started in the community, including sending written proposals to Biden's campaign and having virtual Zoom meetings with his advisers. She thinks they're not listening to her.

AXELROD: Well, I'm sure they're looking at these early vote numbers from Florida. There is a -- the one that struck my eye is that Miami- Dade is much lower than the rest of the state in terms of a percentage of early voters coming out and that is a place where he has to -- Joe Biden has to mount a huge advantage going into Election Day.

The other thing you notice if you look deeply into these numbers is that where the falloff is appears to be among African-American voters, you know, and that is a concern. That has been a concern for the campaign. I think it's one of the reasons why President Obama was sent down to Florida some days ago. So, you know, I'm sure they are aware of it and will be trying to address it in various ways.

I think Kamala Harris is going back to Florida as well.

BERMAN: Abby, interesting today where Joe Biden is going because it tells two different stories, he's going to Iowa, which is a state that Donald Trump won by nine points four years ago and Joe Biden finished fourth in in the Iowa caucuses, but he's also going to Minnesota which is a traditionally Democratic state.

Yes, Donald Trump got relatively close there, but it is a state that -- well, Joe Biden needs to win to win the presidency, but should win depending on what you think of the polls.

[08:20:03]

So, why these two stops?

PHILLIP: Well, yeah, you're right, that they kind of tell two different stories and it's two sides of the strategy for the Biden campaign. One which is to defend that Upper Midwest region, which is really at the heart of the matter.

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and Minnesota are basically the territory that if Biden is able to keep that area away from Donald Trump, he's likely -- more likely to win and probably likely to win at that point.

But then at the same time you have Iowa, which is a state that is a bit of a reach for Biden, it's a state where there is a competitive Senate race and it's one where you're looking at Democrats wanting to say, let's not only stretch the map, but let's try to give our down ballot races as much lift as possible, and that is why you're seeing Biden going there.

I think a Biden campaign aide told Jeff Zeleny yesterday he was in the neighborhood so he might as well go. I think we are in that phase of the campaign where you're going to see more of this hop-scotching to neighboring and nearby states because any opportunity to kind of be face-to-face with voters and to encourage them to cast their ballots when they can is going to make a difference in these tight races and you better believe that Senate race in Iowa is going to be extremely close, so all of these stops really matter.

CAMEROTA: Go ahead, David.

AXELROD: And I think that they also remember 2016 when Hillary Clinton didn't visit Wisconsin, assumed Wisconsin, never visited after the convention and ended up losing narrowly in Wisconsin. So hence the Minnesota visit.

I quite agree with Abby, though, I think this is a lot about the Senate race in Iowa. Joe Biden is going to have a much different governing reality if he wins with a Democratic Senate or a Republican Senate and that Iowa race is emerging as one of the top tier races that Republicans and Democrats are looking at that could tip the Senate. His presence there and his performance there will have something to do with how the Democratic candidate Theresa Greenfield performs there against Joni Ernst. I think there is -- there are dual goals for that visit.

BERMAN: Yeah, and, look, things don't happen in a vacuum, either. If Joe Biden is doing well in Wisconsin, he should do well, relatively speaking, in Iowa, in Minnesota, all of these things should move sort of in the same direction. So there is a chance there.

David Axelrod, Abby Phillip, thanks so much for being with us.

Abby and David will both be a big part of CNN's special coverage of election night in America, that's Tuesday, starting at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

So, one state that we didn't talk about which is fascinating today is Texas. Early voting there has just seen a record surge in early voting. We have a live report and we're going to speak to someone from a county that already has more votes total than all of 2016.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:26:58]

CAMEROTA: Today is the final day for early in-person voting in seven states, including Texas. The numbers in Texas surging past early voting totals from four years ago. When you include mail-in ballots, it could exceed the total turnout from 2016.

Also surging in Texas, the number of people hospitalized right now with coronavirus.

CNN's Jason Carroll has been talking to voters in Texas about all of this.

Jason, what have you learned?

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And good morning to you.

Even at this early hour, Alisyn, folks are lined up waiting to go inside and participate in early voting. We've seen an enthusiastic people on both sides of the aisle, trying to get in there and do some early voting. The question is what is this going to mean for Democrats? Could this mean that Joe Biden actually has a chance in the state of Texas?

Well, Dallas' former mayor, a Republican told us that Biden went from having no shot to a long shot to a medium shot. He's endorsing Biden. Part of the reason that Biden might have a chance in the state, change of demographics, Dems are doing better in counties like Tarrant County where we are right now, traditionally Republican, now it's looking more purple, more Latino and younger voters out there.

We spoke to a first-time voter, she's 24 years old, and basically she says she comes from a conservative family, but this time, she's going to vote for Biden.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CARROLL: Was there a defining moment where you said, okay, Biden is the one for me, versus -- versus Trump?

ANGELICA TUTTON, TEXAS VOTER: I've never really been a major Trump supporter, but I think in this year of 2020 after COVID and everything else that's been happening, I think that that was kind of -- this year was really the turning point for me and I listened to some of the things that Trump said and I educated myself a lot more and I think that this year just in general with everything that's going on has been the turning point for me to decide that I wanted to vote blue.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARROLL: And, John and Alisyn, Dems are putting time and money into the state, a super PAC founded by Michael Bloomberg just dumped $5.6 million in TV ads into the state. Vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris not doing not one, not two, but three stops in the state today.

But despite all of that, Republicans say that any hopes of a Democrat in this state turning blue is just wishful thinking. One thing that cannot be argued, though, is the enthusiasm behind early voting here in the state -- John.

BERMAN: No question about that, Jason Carroll. One place you can really see that is Harris County. That may be the county the Democrats are looking at more than any or the.

Harris County which includes Houston is breaking all kinds of records. They've already had 1.4 million votes cast. That is the highest ever. They have already broken their turnout records in Harris County.

And joining me now is Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo.

Wow, 1.4 million people voted already. Why?

JUDGE LINA HIDALGO, HARRIS COUNTY, TEXAS: Well, we got the news last night around 10:00, 11:00 at night and that's because yesterday was our very first day of 24-hour voting in Harris County.

[08:30:00]