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New Day

New Single-Day Virus Records for 31 States; CNN's Election Night Coverage; Coronavirus Update from Around the World; Polls on Election Eve. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired November 02, 2020 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[06:30:00]

DR. ROCHELLE WALENSKY, CNN MEDICAL ANALYST: We're back at flatten the curve. We have to be able to -- to support our hospitals.

I know in Utah and Wisconsin they're looking at field hospitals That's what we did in Boston and New York when we were in -- in a real dire straits in the middle of April. But that's not our best medical care. That's -- you're not getting the best that you need and you want when you're trying to deliver it in field hospitals. We just don't have the manpower. We run out of not just ventilators, we run out of things like tube feeds and sedation medicines and dialysis machines. It just becomes dire. And so I think we're back to sort of the flatten the curve.

The other point I really want to make is, you know, there was a pre- print that was just out last week that looked at big masked rallies that occurred in August and September. And in all of the 20 counties that had masked rallies, there were increases in disease by over 50 percent. And so I think it's really important to understand that the rallies that are happening right now, whether they be campaign rallies or otherwise, are likely to lead to a lot more disease in the weeks ahead.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: I want to talk about Dr. Scott Atlas, who's a radiologist, who seems to be the one doctor that President Trump listens to, even though his expertise is nowhere near the realm of infectious diseases.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, in fact, said of Scott Atlas, let me read this, I have real problems with that guy. He's a smart guy who's talking about things that I believe he doesn't have any real insight or knowledge or experience in. He keeps talking about things that when you dissect it out and parse it out, it doesn't make any sense.

So not only, according to Fauci, is he not making sense, but where he's saying this stuff is also now controversial because he did an interview with "RT," which is Russian propaganda, and had to apologize to national security officials for going on "RT," Dr. Walensky.

What's going on here?

WALENSKY: Well, you know, Dr. Atlas is a neuro radiologist. He was at Stanford for some period of time. His colleagues in public health and infectious disease at Stanford penned a letter over the summer that said that they thought he was misrepresenting and speaking of falsehoods. His esteemed colleagues in neuro radiology, actually just a couple of weeks ago, wrote a letter commenting that they were concerned over his statements.

Dr. Atlas has said on Twitter that he didn't believe masks worked. He has said that we should not be believing the -- the models that are coming out of University of Washington, which, quite frankly, have been pretty spot-on. Death rates that were projected in July by November 1 were about where we are right now. So I think he has a track record of not being able to deliver the best science to the president's ear and to the task force. And -- and his fellow scientists, his fellow neuro radiologists, his fellow Stanford colleagues have all denounced what he's been saying.

BERMAN: Dr. Walensky, thanks so much for waking up. Thanks so much for being here. We appreciate your help.

WALENSKY: Always a pleasure. Thank you.

BERMAN: So there are two states on opposite sides of the country that could be key in deciding the presidential election. We're talking about the race to 270, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:37:44]

BERMAN: So, as of this morning, more than 93 million votes have already been cast in the presidential election. Many states seeing record numbers for early turnout. And while this is going on, people are saying things that, frankly, aren't true about the legality of mail-in ballots.

So how does this all affect our ability to make projections on election eve and declare winners and losers?

Joining us now, CNN Washington bureau chief Sam Feist.

Sam, making your 2020 NEW DAY debut.

Listen, this election is obviously different in so many ways. How will election night 2020 be different than past elections?

SAM FEIST, CNN WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF: Good morning.

I think it's going to be slower. When you tune into watch election coverage on CNN, you're going to see everything that you expect to see on election night, but I think that the projections could just take a little bit longer. It takes longer to count mail-in ballots and so it's going to take longer for those votes to be reported to the election authorities and it's going to take longer for our decision teams to make their projections.

But that doesn't mean anything is wrong. It just means everyone has to be a little bit more patient.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: But, Sam, just peel back the curtain for us, if you would. Are you and the decision teams and Wolf Blitzer and John King, are you guys all gaming out different scenarios right now? And how many different scenarios do you have?

FEIST: Yes, we're definitely gaming out scenarios because in advance of election night, our decision team and our election team has actually rehearsed it. They've rehearsed it umpteen different ways. We have seen almost every outcome that you can imagine. And that's to give our teams practice in watching the vote come in, estimating how long it takes for votes in a particular county to come in. And there are a whole lot of different options for both candidates, as we -- as you've talked about throughout the program this morning. And we're, you know, we've gamed it out. But what we have seen, as we game it out, is that it's just going to take a little bit longer. These mail- in votes take longer. You've talked about Pennsylvania. They're going to take a long time.

BERMAN: There are really two different sets of states, Sam. And these two different sets of states help answer the question of, well, are we going to know anything before midnight or how much will we know before midnight or is it impossible we might know who is the winner before midnight?

Explain.

[06:40:08]

FEIST: So, look at the Sun Belt states, particularly in the southeast, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina. Those states are going to count relatively quickly. They have been processing their mail-in ballots for weeks now. And when the polls begin to close in Florida at 7:00 tomorrow night, Florida will report first their mail-in ballot -- their mail-in vote results, which, by the way, will likely give Biden an early lead because we know from our polling that Democrats are much more likely to vote early and by mail.

But then the opposite is true, those green states in the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, as you talked about earlier with Michael Smerconish, the election authorities are not allowed to open those ballots. They're not allowed to take the mail-in ballots out of the outer envelope, out of the inner envelope, check the signature. They can't do anything of that until tomorrow morning. And that means that those results are not going to be counted and -- at the earliest, at the end of the night tomorrow night, and much more likely Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. So those mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania and in some places of Wisconsin and parts of Michigan, they're going to come in late.

By the way, that's going to change the early vote reporting. So you're going to see Donald Trump with what looks like an early lead in those states because the mail-in ballots are going to come at the end, whereas the southeastern states, the mail-in ballots are going to come at the beginning. CAMEROTA: And so, Sam, what is CNN's plan if the CNN reporting and

"Axios" reporting does come to pass that President Trump plans to declare victory for himself before critical votes are counted?

FEIST: Alisyn, one of the great things about election night is that at -- once election night starts, it's all about the numbers. It's not about the spin. It's not about what the candidates say. It's not about what the campaigns say. It's about the numbers. If our decision desk has looked at the numbers and we are prepared to project a winner, we will tell you that. If we're not prepared to project a winner, we will tell you that.

So if a candidate comes in and claims victory that is not yet supported by the facts, that's exactly what we're going to say. A candidate has claimed victory, but the facts don't yet support it. And we will continue to report the results, make projections, share the numbers, and we'll let you know when we finally have a winner. And that may be tomorrow night, and that may be Wednesday, it may be Thursday, it may even be Friday because, in this year of a pandemic, it just takes a little bit longer.

BERMAN: Sam, you know as much about election history as any human being I know. What does history tell us? How rare is it for votes to be counted after midnight on election night?

FEIST: In every state in the country, the votes will be -- some votes will be counted after midnight on election night. That's just the reality. Votes are not going to be certified for weeks, as you know, John. And people don't often remember that two of the last five elections, we have not known or reported the results on election night. Everybody remembers 2000 in Florida. But the very next election, in 2004, we went to bed and we didn't have a president- elected that moment. And that's because the votes in Ohio had not yet been counted or we had not -- we didn't yet have a winner projected in Ohio and we didn't know and project a winner until noon the next day on Wednesday. So that was only -- that was -- that was in 2004. And that could happen this time. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all. It's a year of a pandemic.

BERMAN: So what you're saying is, always and everywhere in terms of when votes are counted after election night.

FEIST: John, the game is not over until the game is over. For example, in -- to use a football analogy, if one team has 24 points, say the Buffalo Bills, and another team has 21 points, say the New England Patriots --

CAMEROTA: Wow.

FEIST: And the clock runs out --

CAMEROTA: You asked for this.

FEIST: And the Bills win the game --

CAMEROTA: You asked for this. FEIST: But until the clock wins -- runs out, it's not over.

BERMAN: This is -- this wasn't part of the plan.

CAMEROTA: I understood that perfectly.

BERMAN: This wasn't in the script. This was not in the agreed to statement.

CAMEROTA: I understood you analogy perfectly.

FEIST: Right.

BERMAN: Let me give you another of analogy. When the -- when the scoreboard says 28-3 in the fourth quarter and the Patriots are down in the Super Bowl, it's not over until Tom Brady says it is.

All right, Sam Feist --

FEIST: Fair enough.

BERMAN: Great to have you with us.

CAMEROTA: Our producers say this segment is over, however, Sam.

FEIST: Happy Election Day.

BERMAN: You will (ph).

CAMEROTA: Thank you. You too.

All right, where do Joe Biden and Donald Trump need to win? Which states do they need to win to clinch that magic number of 270? Harry Enten, who stays up most nights crunching these numbers, is going to join us next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:48:35]

CAMEROTA: The United Kingdom will begin a second nationwide lockdown starting Thursday. Officials say it could last longer than a month if infection rates don't fall quickly enough.

CNN has reporters around the world covering the latest.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EDITOR: I'm Nick Paton Walsh in London, where Prime Minister Boris Johnson will lay out to the British parliament in the hours ahead the precise details of a nationwide lockdown expected to begin at midnight on Thursday. Unlike the last lockdown in March/April, it will leave schools, colleges, and universities open, but tell bars, restaurants, and non-essential stops to close and tell everyone really to stay at home unless they have a specific reason not to. He's been under great pressure to not do this from his own political

party, but at the same time he says the numbers from British scientists about potential deaths and infections in the weeks and months ahead of winter left him with no choice but for this substantial u-turn on British policy.

FRED PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm Fred Pleitgen in Berlin as Germany has entered a partial lockdown. From today on, all bars, restaurants, and cafes will have to remain shut except for takeout.

Also, amateur and recreational sport, as well as movie theaters and concert halls have stopped operating. All this comes as Germany has seen a major increase in new coronavirus infections over the past couple of weeks and German Chancellor Angela Merkel says the country must act and act now.

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm Matthew Chance in Moscow. And Russia has recorded more than 18,000 new cases of COVID-19.

[06:50:03]

This as the Russian government reveals a growing strain on its medical facilities. Officials say hospitals in the country's worst-affected regions are already at more than 95 percent capacity. Last week, Russia announced a nationwide mask mandate and nightlife has been curbed with bars and restaurants advised to close early, as Russia tries to stem this latest COVID-19 surge.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BERMAN: Efforts around the world.

So, the 2020 presidential election could come down to Arizona and Pennsylvania. Why? We'll take a look at the numbers, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAMEROTA: It's election eve. President Trump and Joe Biden are zeroing in on must-win battleground states. And joining us now, CNN's senior political writer and analyst Harry Enten.

Harry, great to see you.

OK, this is the moment that you've lived for and waited for all your life. Talk about the -- why --let's start with Pennsylvania. Why is that so important, Harry?

BERMAN: You were almost stumped there.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL WRITER AND ANALYST: Pennsylvania. It's a commonwealth. It's very near here, Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: I'm familiar. ENTEN: Look, here's the situation. Take a look at the polls. Look at

the road map to 270 electoral votes, OK? Let's give Hillary Clinton -- let's give Joe Biden the Hillary Clinton's states. That gets him to 232. Then give him Wisconsin and Michigan, where he's up 9 and 8 points, and that gets him to 258.

[06:55:05]

Then, look, you give Joe Biden the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, he's up by 6 there, that gets him to 278 electoral votes. So that is the key state that gets him over the top in the Electoral College. And you'll note right underneath (ph) all of that is Nebraska's second congressional district in Arizona, and we'll get to those in a second. But Pennsylvania, right now, looks like the state that gets Joe Biden over 270 electoral votes.

BERMAN: So you just foreshadow there, Harry. You talked about Arizona. Why is Arizona, should we call it, a backdoor Pennsylvania?

ENTEN: Yes, exactly. It's the Pennsylvania of the southwest.

Here's the situation. So look at this electoral map where you essentially give Joe Biden all the states where he led by four points in the average of polls in both September and October and still now in November, except for Pennsylvania. And look at this, you get Joe Biden to exactly 270 electoral votes. That includes Arizona. That includes Nebraska's second congressional district, Wisconsin, and Michigan. So even if he loses Pennsylvania, if he wins in Arizona and Nebraska's second congressional district, he can still do it.

CAMEROTA: How can voters trust polls in let's say Arizona and Pennsylvania?

ENTEN: Right. Look, maybe the polls will be wrong, but here's the situation. Take a look at this graphic here and I think it really sort of gives you an understanding of why I don't necessarily think the polls -- the polls may be wrong in one of those places, but I don't think it will be wrong in both of those places. It's because demographically they're very, very different, right? Pennsylvania has a lot more non-college white voters, fewer Hispanic voters, it's less urban and it's in a different geographical area. Normally when poll error occur, they occur in similar areas. So if the polls were off in Pennsylvania, perhaps they'll be off in Ohio. But the idea that they'd also be off in Arizona, that doesn't necessarily hold water as we saw in 2016 where the polls in Pennsylvania weren't really good, but they were pretty good in the state of Arizona.

BERMAN: So, Harry, two things can be true. One, the polls can be showing that Joe Biden is ahead and fairly comfortably ahead. And, frankly, the race has not closed over the last six months.

ENTEN: Correct.

BERMAN: But that President Donald Trump has a very real and very clear path back to the White House. ENTEN: Right. So what we should point out is that polls have errors,

right? They're not necessarily perfect. But if you look at the average error over time, what you see since 1972 in competitive presidential races, that the average error has been plus or minus three percentage points. That's not good enough for Donald Trump.

But there are tells to this. Sometimes the polls can be really off. So the true margin of error is plus or nine percentage points. That doesn't necessarily happen very often, but it does happen occasional. And right now Biden's advantage is those key swing states is south of nine percentage points with really the exception of Wisconsin. So Trump is still in this ballgame.

CAMEROTA: OK, so show us President Trump's best path to 270.

ENTEN: Yes. Right. So President Trump's best path is basically to hold in the Sun Belt, right, and then win in the state of Pennsylvania. If he's able to do that, which is possible, even if it's not likely, he'll get up to 279 electoral votes. So, look, Donald Trump, it's not the same situation as it was four years ago. He needs a larger polling error to pull it off, but it's still possible, even at this late hour.

BERMAN: So we just had Washington bureau chief Sam Feist on and he said some things that weren't true about football.

ENTEN: No, I think they were completely true.

BERMAN: But one of the things he also said, Harry, is that in terms of when votes are counted after election night, it's always and everywhere.

ENTEN: That's --

BERMAN: And you've got yet one more example of when races aren't necessarily called for days.

ENTEN: Right. They aren't necessarily called. Just take a look here. I use California a lot because they do have vote by mail. Look, at the 2018 California 39th House election, look at this, Gil Cisneros wasn't declared the winner 12 days after the election. He still won by 4 points and his opponent, Yon Kim (ph), actually attended freshman orientation. That's how late it was for this race to be called and how uncertain it was.

And I'm just going to say this over and over and over again, it takes time to count ballots. It's better to be accurate than fast. And we have loads of examples of that. And the numbers will do the talking. The politicians cannot do the spinning.

CAMEROTA: That is really interesting, Harry. I mean I always say you don't have a job until you have the key to the bathroom. But it sounds like that was very close, if you went to -- or a freshman orientation.

ENTEN: That's exactly right. Wait for the numbers to be counted. They'll be counted. The voters will have their say.

BERMAN: Harry Enten, no shirts, no shoes, no service, that's my contribution.

ENTEN: That's right.

BERMAN: Thank you very much for being with us this morning.

CAMEROTA: Thanks, Harry.

CAMEROTA: Well done. Well done.

NEW DAY continues right now.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is the last full day of campaigning.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If you are the Biden campaign, you are all in on the state of Pennsylvania. If you are Donald Trump, he's going all over the place.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What we've heard from the president is repeated attempts to undermine the credibility of the election.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We should know the result of the election on November 3rd.

KAMALA HARRIS (D), VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: We plan to decisively win this election.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's going to get worse. The virus is all over the country.

[07:00:01]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We feel very good. People want to get their life back to normal. They're tired of the lockdown.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We need to do the basic things in Wisconsin and, frankly, some people aren't.