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The Lead with Jake Tapper

Tracing Terrorists in Europe; Obama's Coming State of the Union Address; NSA Had Hacked North Korea before Sony Was Hacked; Black Boxes Reveal New Clues In Airasia Crash; "American Sniper" Shatters Box Office Records

Aired January 19, 2015 - 16:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JAKE TAPPER, CNN HOST: What explains the kind of lapse, are they just overworked, too few law enforcement and counterterrorism officials and too many people to track?

PHIL MUDD, CNN COUNTERTERRORISM ANALYST: That would be my initial reaction, Jake.

There are some key questions here. You mentioned one, the air gap between acquiring information from one agency and passing it to another. One of the big questions I have, we have seen multiple reports about travel through Oman to either Yemen or Iraq back in 2011. How you miss travel on a target like this is a significant question in a security service.

We are missing a huge piece of the puzzle, Jake, and that's what we'll find in the investigation. That is you're triaging in the security service every day. Let's say you have several hundred targets, more targets coming in every day from Yemen or Iraq. So, when those targets come in, you've got to have some come off the table.

Here's the question: what else was on the table that led them to drop surveillance on this target? And is that one of the explanations for why this target was missed over time?

TAPPER: How long, Phil, how long do you think intelligence agencies should monitor someone when they first get a credible tip?

MUDD: That is -- I hate to tell you, that is a terrific question. Here's the problem here. When you're talking about travel to either Yemen, Iraq, out to a war zone in 2011 and we are now in 2015, you do not follow targets for three or four or five years. I just didn't witness that. If someone's going over there for training, they are going to come back and typically act. I mentioned before triaging. If they don't act, let's say a year passes, two years pass, three years pass, an operations manager is going to say how many resources are we going to spend on somebody when we don't have information that suggests they are going to stage an operation.

What about the guy who came in last month from Syria or Iraq or Yemen. So, to me, that's one of the fascinating aspects of this. What were these operatives waiting for? Why didn't they operate? And I suspect one of the things the investigation will show is that investigators said we can't follow these guys around forever, if we're not certain they are up to something.

TAPPER: Paul Cruickshank, the estimated number of foreign fighters who have returned from Iraq and Syria to France is roughly 500. How can they even prioritize targets in a pool that big?

PAUL CRUICKSHANK, CNN ANALYST: Well, it's about 200 to France, more than 500 for the whole of the European Union. You're right, it's very, very difficult to prioritize, to figure out who you're going to watch and it's really, you know, as Phil would say, more of an art often than a science. Often the information is very fragmentary indeed. In Belgium we have just seen a very significant counterterrorism operation, the thwarting of what Belgians now believe was a major ambitious terrorist attack possibly against the sensitive target in Belgium.

It was a big counterterrorism success from the Belgians. But that's telling me just in the last few minutes, there are concerns still - there's still a danger out there in Belgium that some of these cell members are still at large. They haven't got the whole cell yet. And while they have disrupted the main thrust of the plot, they believe that others may have access to weapons and may try to launch an attack for the death of their comrades in that operation you see on your screen right now in Verviers last week, Jake.

TAPPER: So, Phil Mudd, given that news that Paul just said about the fear that this Belgian cell that was raided has connections to other terrorist cells throughout Europe, what steps would counterintelligence -- sorry, counterterrorism officials in Europe be taking right now that they weren't already taking?

MUDD: Boy, the first is the intense interrogation of the people in custody because they know the answer to a couple of questions. Let me give you the two I would ask. Neither of which have anything to do with what just happened in Paris and Belgium. First, are there any other imminent attacks? Speak now. The second, and this is the piece that will take months to sort of investigate, who else is out there. Terrorism in my world was not a game of threats or of locations that might be targeted.

It was a game of people. Any interrogation of a subject is going to include the preliminary question not of what just happened but of who else is out there, what are their names, where are their travel routes, who else have they connected with in terms of acquiring weapons, explosives, money, so that I can go out and find them. I want to interrogate those guys immediately about other people. And I suspect when you're seeing other raids across Europe, the same questions are being asked of everybody who is being brought in by services in places like Germany, Spain, Italy, et cetera.

TAPPER: Phil Mudd, Paul Cruickshank, thank you both so much.

In other world news, just how did President Obama know for certain that North Korea was behind the recent Sony hack? According to the "NEW YORK TIMES" the U.S. has been spying on North Korea's computer networks for years. How do they do it? That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Welcome back to "THE LEAD." In our money lead, it's going to be a showdown tomorrow night. President Obama giving his first State of the Union before House and Senate both in Republican control and the president is already getting pushback from the GOP on his proposals to cut taxes for the middle class to be paid for by tax increases on the wealthy. Here are some of the ideas to be laid out in tomorrow's State of the Union address. A $500 credit for married couples, increasing a child care credit to $3,000. And two free years of community college for those who qualify.

Senior White House correspondent Jim Acosta joins me now.

Jim, just to be frank here, do any of these tax cuts or tax increases have any chance of becoming law?

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I don't think so at this point unless there is some hope for a grand bargain to resurrect itself over the next couple of months, Jake. I think it is doubtful. And as you know, Republicans are calling the president's tax plan a non-starter at this point, but White House officials are responding by saying some of these ideas had GOP support in the past and that the proposals are a starting point in the negotiation.

So, we have to watch for that. But stay tuned, even though the White House has already shared much of what will be in the president's State of the Union address over the last couple of weeks, a senior official told me today there are some surprises in store so a teaser there. And the White House says the theme of the president's speech will be middle class economics.

The address will be filled with pitches from the president for all of these tax breaks you mentioned for middle income earners. Now, those credits plus the free community college idea Mr. Obama has already talked about, and we showed this up on screen, they add up to over $200 billion. The president would pay for that with new taxes on the rich and fees on big banks that come to more than 300 billion.

And Jake, we did learn one other thing today about the president's State of the Union message. The White House announced that Alan Gross, the American who was freed from a Cuban prison as part of that deal to normalize relations between the two countries, he will be in the first lady's box as the president will defends his policy on Cuba as well.

TAPPER: All right, Jim Acosta at the White House, thank you so much.

A reminder, CNN will have special coverage of President Obama's State of the Union address. It all begins at 7:00 Eastern tomorrow night.

More world news now. We learned today why President Obama seemed so sure of himself when he blamed North Korea for the Sony hack. It turns out that the National Security Agency has been tapping into North Korea's computer network since 2010. Cybersecurity experts wonder just how the U.S. government could be so sure and so quickly that North Korea was behind the hack on Sony entertainment computers. Now we know. All of this, of course, first reported by the "New York Times." Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr has been digging into this story today. Barbara, what have you learned?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jake, the "New York Times" has laid out quite an interesting scenario that since 2010, the National Security Agency was basically itself hacking into North Korea through China. North Korea's access to the Internet runs directly through China. They apparently, according to the "Times" placed malware in that connection and that allowed them to see what the North Koreans were up to.

This, of course, long before the Sony hack emerged late last year. A U.S officials telling CNN's Brian Todd that the U.S. did not warn Sony ahead of time about this, that what the U.S. saw essentially happening in North Korean cyberspace were the typical kinds of phishing, denial of service attacks that the North Koreans were engaged in. And nobody really clearly saw the level of the cyberattack against Sony. And I have to say, I don't know that it's all is it all clear if the NSA saw that, would they tell a commercial company like Sony because it would have revealed their own secret program to hack into North Korean cyberspace.

So think of it as espionage on so many levels going so many ways, but all taking place online apparently. Jake?

TAPPER: Barbara, we had the national intelligence director for this country, James Clapper in North Korea in November. This is around the same time of the Sony hack. Does his office acknowledge him having any conversations with his North Korean counterparts on intelligence matters?

STARR: Well, what they are saying is that if he of course made that trip to North Korea to try to secure the release of Americans - three Americans being detained there, and he did succeed in that, they say he did not raise any other issues, that that was his sole focus and he didn't want any intelligence issues of this sort apparently to get in the way of trying to get those Americans home. Jake.

TAPPER: All right. Barbara Starr at the Pentagon, thank you so much.

When we come back, investigators finally closer to figuring out just what caused AirAsia Flight 8501 to crash into the ocean. They have now listened to the cockpit voice recorders. What did they hear?

Plus, the New England Patriots investigated for possibly allegedly cheating in their huge playoff win yesterday. But the punishment does not involve giving up their Super Bowl spot. That's ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Welcome back to THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper. In some other world news today, investigators can now rule out at least one theory about what brought down Airasia Flight 8501.

Today, they revealed that there is no evidence that the plane crash was an act of terrorism. They are basing that on cockpit voice recordings taken from the flight's black boxes. They found nothing, nothing indicating any voices in the cockpit other than those of the pilots and there were no signs of an explosion.

So just what did bring the plane down and what did the pilots say in those final moments? I'm joined by CNN aviation correspondent, Rene Marsh. Rene, what can you tell us to help solve this mystery for us?

RENE MARSH, CNN AVIATION AND GOVERNMENT REGULATION CORRESPONDENT: Well, at this point, Jake, we know that the transcripts of the pilots' conversations are still being transcribed so we still don't know what the pilots' final words were.

Recordings of the pilots in the cockpit, though, have allowed investigators to take one theory off the table, but many critical questions remain unanswered.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MARSH (voice-over): Indonesian investigators say they do not hear gunfire or explosions on Airasia Flight 8501's cockpit voice recorder. But what brought down the plane still remains a mystery.

ANDREAS HANANTO, INDONESIAN AIR SAFETY INVESTIGATOR (through translator): The voice from the cockpit does not show any sign of a terrorist attack. It is only the pilot sounding very busy.

MARSH: The Airasia flight was traveling through severe thunderstorms when it crashed. The question remains, was weather, mechanical failure or human error to blame?

CHRISTOPHER VOSS, MANAGING DIRECTOR, INSITE SECURITY: We want to make absolutely certain before you rule anything out for sure or rule anything in for sure.

MARSH: Former FBI agent, Christopher Voss, investigated the crash of TWA Flight 800.

VOSS: If it's not a terrorist problem that brought this plane down then that means they potentially have to look for other manifestations of that problem, either another flight crew or other airplanes. There has to be a hidden danger for other planes that are still flying.

MARSH: The doomed flight was an Airbus A-320 with more than 3,500 in operation worldwide. Meanwhile, the painstaking search for bodies continues. Two more found Sunday, but the waterlogged remains are decomposing and only 53 of the 162 on board have been recovered.

SUPRIYADI, INDONESIAN SEARCH AND RESCUE (through translator): Due to currents, the divers couldn't even reach the bottom which constrained our operation.

MARSH: Divers were able to pull up debris like passenger seats, but the fuselage remains at the bottom of the Java Sea. It's the largest piece of wreckage at nearly 100 feet long and is believed to hold some of the missing bodies. (END VIDEOTAPE)

MARSH: The transcript of the pilots' conversation is about halfway complete. Investigators hope to finish this week. But before they draw any concrete conclusions, they will compare what they heard to information on flight data recorder, which essentially gives details about how the plane's systems were functioning.

The debris also tells a story so they will consider that as well and we also are told next week they will release a preliminary report so hoping for more information in that report.

TAPPER: All right, Rene Marsh, thank you so much. Appreciate it.

Up next on THE LEAD, first it racked up some key Oscar nominations, now it's raking in huge bucks at the Box Office. We will tell you about "American Sniper's" record breaking weekend and how the movie's success could shake things up in Hollywood.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TAPPER: Welcome back to THE LEAD. The Pop Culture Lead now, when you hear about a movie breaking Box Office records, it tends to feature some type of super powered guy in tights like Batman or Spider-Man or Ironman.

But it is the story of what many consider to be a real life American hero that shattered expectations this holiday weekend to become the biggest January opening in history the Oscar nominated film "American Sniper" earned an estimated $105 million at the Box Office this weekend.

It stars Bradley Cooper as former Navy SEAL Chris Kyle. Kyle was a military sharpshooter in Iraq and Afghanistan. His claim to fame was that he was the deadliest sniper in American history.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Let me ask you a question, Chris. Would you be surprised if I told you that the navy has credited you with over 160 kills?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: So does this film's success signal a shift in America's appetite for war-based films? I'm joined now by Brent Lang, senior film and media reporter for "Variety."

Brent, I recently got a chance to talk to the film's star, Bradley Cooper. He said what makes this film different from other war movies is that it focuses less so on the war itself and more so on the soldiers and the battles they face when they return home. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) BRADLEY COOPER, ACTOR, "AMERICAN SNIPER": Hopefully, we tell it accurately. Other service men and women will say wow, that's actually something that I can relate to.

It's about the struggles that people go through being at war and being at home because more military vets are coming back than ever before because of medical advancements and we have to take care of them.

And that's -- if there's any message at all, that would be a little keyhole into the world of a vet and their family, as importantly.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TAPPER: Do you think that focusing on those struggles is part of what made this film more appealing? Is it just the patriotic rah-rah this film also in some ways represents?

BRENT LANG, SENIOR FILM AND MEDIA REPORTER, "VARIETY": No, I think that's exactly why the film was so successful. I think Bradley Cooper just summed it up beautifully. If you look at it, early films about Iraq and Afghanistan like "Rendition" and even "The Hurt Locker," which won the best picture Oscar did not do very well at the Box Office.

I think a lot of that is they were in some ways more polemical and films like "American Sniper" and "Lone Survivor" are more personal. I think that allows them to have a much more universal appeal.

Warner Brothers saying this is a film that is playing like gangbusters in blue states and red states. It's playing well in all 50 states. That's the kind of success you saw last weekend.

TAPPER: The film which is a really powerful movie also, it stayed above the political fray in a lot of ways. It didn't take a position. It wasn't about whether or not we should have been there.

Chris Kyle was there and he was doing what he feels he was sent to do. But the movie has had its own fair share of controversy. Over the weekend, actor, Seth Rogen compared "American Sniper" to the fictitious Nazi propaganda movie.

Saying, quote, "American Sniper kind of reminds me of the movie that showing in the third act of in glorious bastards." Seth Rogen has been criticized a bit for that. Could these criticisms in some way, though, actually be helping the movie in terms of its Box Office?

LANG: You know, I think it actually is helping the movie, just based on online comments and articles I have written about "American Sniper," I can tell you that a lot of people are supporting this film because they feel that it's almost their patriotic duty to do so. They feel that by buying a ticket, they are showing that they are supporting American service men and women.

TAPPER: Do you think there is something to the way they have marketed the movie also, that may have raised viewer interest? It's marketed differently than previous war movies. LANG: Absolutely. They really marketed this film as a story, as an action story. If you look at early trailers, they have Bradley Cooper trying to decide whether or not to shoot someone who may have an IED.

They ratcheted up the tension, but they also did emphasize patriotism, the posters have an American flag waving quite prominently in the foreground and they emphasize the relationship between Chris Kyle and his wife, which allowed them to get an audience that was 43 percent female. Not a small feat for a war film.

TAPPER: The timing of the film couldn't have been better for the academy awards, of course. Do you think the success of this is going to help them?

LANG: I think it is. If you look at it going into this weekend, the best picture contenders were among the weakest in history. No film had crossed $100 million when nominations were announced. Well, "American Sniper" just shot past that mark.

It's going to make $200 million or more. It's going to be the film that all of the people tuning in have seen and you can't say that about films no matter what their merit, like "Boyhood." They're just not that kind of popular success.

TAPPER: Hollywood loves success. Frequently reminded of people who make movies. Brent Lang from "Variety," thank you so much. Appreciate it.

That's it for THE LEAD. I'm Jake Tapper. Join me tonight for a CNN special report, an inside look at the three men behind the French terrorist attacks and the female suspect still on the loose. That's 9:00 eastern right here on CNN.

For now I turn you over to Wolf Blitzer in "THE SITUATION ROOM" -- Mr. Blitzer.