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Massive Storm May Break Snowfall Records; Rapid Changes Pose New Dangers in Mideast Region; Will Regional Instability Strengthen Iran?; Prices for Super Bowl Ads At All-Time High; "Cronies" Opens at Sundance Film Festival; IRS' Stop and Seize
Aired January 25, 2015 - 18:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening, everyone. Six o'clock here on the East Coast. You're in the CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Poppy Harlow, joining you from New York.
Fifty-seven million people across the Northeast are now in the path of a potentially historic winter storm. Expectations are for white-out conditions, heavy ice and hurricane-level winds. A blizzard warning will cover New York City and Boston, that will stretch up to the Canadian border and Maine. Millions of people are being warned to stay off the roads.
New York's mayor says this storm could be the worst of his lifetime.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MAYOR BILL DE BLASIO (D), NEW YORK: So, this literally could be one of the top two or three largest storms in the history of this city and we need to plan accordingly. So, my message to all New Yorkers is prepare for something worse than we have seen before. Prepare to be safe. Take every precaution. Now is the time to get ready for this extreme weather.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: About 20 million people are being warned to stay off of the roads tomorrow all up and down the East Coast.
Take a look at this map. This is the map of potential travel snafus in more than two dozen cities. Delta Airlines right now offering free flight chances tomorrow and Tuesday for travelers flying to or from any of those cities you see there on the map and other airlines making similar offers.
Let's go straight to meteorologist Ivan Cabrera. He joins us from the CNN severe weather center in Atlanta.
This is a monstrous storm and some are saying this could break snowfall records in some places.
IVAN CABRERA, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Well, my goodness. Not only break snowfall records here, but this could be, not just in the top five worst New York City snowstorms in history, this could be the one. This could be the number one storm the worst that we have ever seen since we've been keeping records.
That's not hyperbole here. We're talking about a serious potential of 24 to 36 inches of snowfall. That is two to three feet. If we get that, we would surpass '96, 2010, 1888 and 1947 and 2006 where we almost picked up 27 inches. The potential is there.
And even if we don't get 30 inches it doesn't matter because it is going to be a crippling snowstorm in that you're not going to be able to move anywhere, really, for the next two to three days and it begins in earnest as we hit through Monday evening.
And there is the snowfall map from Philly to New York where it really gets serious, 10 to 12 to the north and west, but right along this barrier, New York, Boston and heading into Maine. That's when we'll be picking up as much as 24 inches of snowfall. Two feet, perhaps as three feet and that is why we have winter storm warnings posted, but also, remember the second part of the storm is not just the snow and the incredible amounts of it, but it will be the wind and that is why we have a blizzard warning that is in effect from Jersey to New York all of the way to Boston and into Maine.
Wind gusts, Poppy, could exceed hurricane force, that's 74 miles an hour along with the snow that is s going to bring you power outages and it is going to paralyze the major cities, I do think, over the next couple of days -- Poppy.
HARLOW: Wow! You're going to be busy and we'll have teams all up and down the East Coast reporting around the clock for people as this storm intensifies into tomorrow night.
Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
All right. Turning our attention overseas and the difficult question of how to bring home hostages held by ISIS. Some argue the government should pay terrorist ransom demands. Some governments do this. ISIS initially demanded $200 million to free these two Japanese hostages. Japan refused and the man on the right, Haruna Yukawa appears to have been executed.
They analyzed the images and called them highly credible and leaving governments with a tough dilemma. Do you pay for a hostage's return and fund terrorism in the process or refuse and then see them oftentimes executed?
CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen wrote an op-ed on this exact topic and joining us to discuss former CIA operative Bob Baer who joins us from Colorado.
Peter, I thought your op-ed was fascinating and you outline that predicament at the top. You say, one, if you pay a ransom a hostage is more likely to be released. Two, every time a ransom is paid, it increases the chances that other hostages will be taken to help fill the coffers of a terrorist group. Is there any, any solution here? PETER BERGEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, there's no good
solution. There are sort of at least bad solutions, Poppy. And, you know, one least bad solution the U.S. government should consider and perhaps not publicly announce, is the idea that if an American is taken hostage as is likely to happen again and again, because if you want to have American journalists covering difficult areas or American aid workers in difficult areas, they'll likely be kidnapped, that at least the family can raise private donations and get involved in a private negotiation. Otherwise, you're basically condemning American journalists and aid workers in areas where they might be kidnapped to a certain death if you're unwilling to negotiate at all.
And, of course, sometimes we have negotiated in the past. The Bowe Bergdahl negotiation, he was exchanged for five members of the Taliban, but to say, hey, we'll never negotiate as a public matter is fine, but as a private matter I think the White House needs to show more flexibility here.
HARLOW: So, Bob Baer, I'm wondering if you agree, because last year, the president, President Obama, did order at least a review of U.S. hostage policy and we don't know what has come out of that yet, but we have seen other governments and reportedly France paying for hostages and we've seen some French hostages released, like Nicolas Henin, should the U.S. government be reassessing?
BOB BAER, FORMER CIA OPERATIVE: Well, Poppy, you're right. The problem with the French is they paid a lot of money to get their hostages out of Syria, and that's set up a marketplace and put a value on hostages. And almost inevitably, the hostage-takers went out and picked up some more, even Japanese which aren't directly involved in the conflict. But you should keep negotiations always going with these groups. The Turks did it in Iraq and got their people out of Mosul from the Islamic State. We don't know how much was paid, if anything or favors were done.
I think any of these groups whether it's al Qaeda or Taliban, we should keep some sort of back channel open, to see what room there is. But I agree with Peter, you should never say never on negotiations.
HARLOW: All right. Peter Bergen, Bob Baer, appreciate it.
The Mideast is in the midst of an upheaval like no other, really like no other time in our recent history. In Yemen, our ally against terrorists, the government has fallen to a group of rebels. This while al Qaeda and ISIS continue to gain ground in Syria and strengthen strongholds in Iraq and in rock solid, frankly, Saudi Arabia, our longstanding ally against terror. The king there has died. He's been replaced by a new king.
Everyone from diplomats and politicians, to military strategists and counterterrorism analysts are having a look at their playbooks. What do these changes mean for the U.S. and for our allies? Who are the winners? Who are the losers in the Middle East? We'll explore that over the next half hour right here on CNN.
Let's get some background now on all of these developments and how they could affect the Middle East and the rest of the world?
Our Tom Foreman lays it out.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: There are good reasons that leaders all around the world are watching the Middle East because the uncertainty there could affect many nations and it starts right here with Saudi Arabia. The death of the king there, the ascension of his half-brother to power theoretically would mean a continuation of the existing policies -- an ally of the U.S., an influencer in the region, but there are questions about exactly how that will proceed. And remember, this is the largest oil exporting nation in the world and their military is a real force to be reckoned with there.
Beyond that, what about Yemen down here? Yemen is in chaos right now. Rebel forces are pushing the government and it's not even clear who is in charge or who will be in charge once the dust settles. We do know, though that many terrorist elements have been at work in Yemen for years now. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is down there and who knows where they wind up.
What about up here? Syria and Iraq. We put them together although they have a lot of different issues. Syria has had a civil war for four years, with Bashar al Assad, Iraq is doing its own rebuilding that continues.
But we put them together because they have a common problem and that is ISIS. ISIS is trying to carve its nation, its Islamic caliphate out of the territory that spans that border. So, that is just for the nations and there are many more that right now are causing uncertainty in that region.
Egypt continues to be an uncertain country in terms of its future and we don't know what will go on there as time moves forward. Israel remains a very strong U.S. ally, but it could feel pressure from all of this uncertainty and relations with the U.S. are not the best right now.
And what about this one over here? Iran. Big influence on the regional ready and if this continue, if things are shaky enough there, Iran might be the big winner coming out of this with even more influence in the Middle East.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HARLOW: Tom Foreman, thank you for that. Coming up after a quick break our panel will weigh in in the next half hour on the fate, the future of the Middle East.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: All right. We're taking a closer look this hour at the turmoil in the Middle East. Syria and Iraq seem to be the countries with the most upheaval as we speak as ISIS tries to establish a caliphate, an Islamic state across Iraq and Syria. Al Qaeda trying to re-establish itself as the king of terrorist organizations.
We've assembled the top panel of experts to discuss the possible future in Iraq and Syria. With me, David Gergen, former presidential adviser to Presidents Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton. Also, retired Lieutenant Colonel James Reese, he's a former U.S. Army Delta Force commander. CNN national security analyst, former CIA operative -- sorry, excuse me, CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen, author of "Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden", and former CIA operative Bob Baer.
Thank you all for being here. I cannot think of better minds to discuss this.
Let me begin with you, David Gergen.
You say Iraq is a mess out here and that is clear and a lot of discussion going right now about whether or not the U.S. should put boots on the ground, soldiers on the front lines in Iraq again. Should it happen? Will it happen?
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I don't think it will happen any time soon and let me say I think we're actually making more progress in Iraq than we are in Syria. At least we've stopped the momentum in Iraq and the Iraqi forces have taken back more territory. But what we are also seeing is that as Iraq pushes back, it's the Shia militias that are doing a lot of the fighting and they're very, very close to Iran and I think that's a danger that has not been fully understood, but is obviously coming to the fore now.
HARLOW: Bob Baer, you said there are tier one Special Forces ready to go at any moment. What do you see in Iraq playing out in terms of any U.S. forces?
BAER: Well, I agree with David. We're not going to put in a division or anything like that. We've got tier one guys, special forces up in Kurdistan right on the front lines, and as David said, the government in Baghdad is Iranian-backed and they're Iranian-backed militias are being pushed up into the Sunni areas, which at the end of the day is not going to do anybody any good. These are death squads and they're still what I call concentration camps where Sunni Muslims are being held by the government in Baghdad.
So, we are not in any way -- there's not much we can do about it, but the sectarian tensions in Iraq are getting worse rather than better and so we can hold back ISIS, the Islamic State, and I think they'll ultimately fail to govern the Sunni area, but no one has the political solution. Iraq is a failed state. It's -- it's crumbled. It doesn't exist anymore.
HARLOW: Colonel Reese, to you, though. This week, intelligence sources telling our Barbara Starr some 6,000 ISIS fight verse been killed by the U.S. and coalition forces, about half of what they believe the entire ISIS army to be made up of. Do you see -- are you more confident by that? Is that an encouraging sign? Or do you see them gathering and more and more strength and more fighters in the region? LT. COL. JAMES REESE (RET), CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: I -- Poppy, I
actually disagree a bit with Bob. I was just there a month ago, and what David said, you have to take in two parts.
One, let's just worry about Iraq right now. I would tell you from Baghdad south to Basra, things are fine. There have been some attacks and there have been some car bombs, but that's the way Iraq lived. The people are going out and they're going to restaurants, they're shopping -- it's what's happening.
Now, when you go out west to al Anbar, that's a whole section. That's a mess right now. We do have U.S. forces out there all of the way out to Al Asad Airbase. I would call that the front line. They're helping the Iraqis train and fight. They're not on the ground, but they are training them and are providing them close air support.
When you go north, up to the Tigris River Valley that's where you're getting a lot of the Shia militia going up and you're seeing that, but the Iraqi security forces are also having some success. They're taken Taji, they've taken Baji. They've done some good things up there.
So, we, right now, what I would call is I think we've neutralized ISIS in Iraq. Syria, whole different story.
HARLOW: Peter Bergen, do you agree with that, that coalition forces have neutralized ISIS in Iraq?
BERGEN: Well, certainly, halted their momentum and begun to reverse, as Colonel Reese laid out. And if we go back to the 6,000 figure which by the way, General Lloyd Austin said on the record to "The Wall Street Journal" on January 22nd, you know, and we take the general estimates of the size of ISIS actually go up to 30,000, and the CIA adjusted its estimate of the size of ISIS about six to nine months ago. And so, 6,000 out of 30,000 is a pretty significant attrition rate, particularly if you keep going. That said, you know, ISIS is also replenishing its ranks and I've seen reports, which seemed reliable, of a thousand recruits a month coming in.
So, right now, it might be a bit of a wash, but they're certainly not gaining territory and they're being pushed back. And also, I think very important, Poppy, you know, Mosul which is the next big place where the Iraqis are trying to get into, you know, ISIS can't run a city of almost 2 million people. You know, they're claiming to provide social services.
HARLOW: Right.
BERGEN: But it's one thing to do that in a small city like Raqqa in Syria, where they're headquartered. It's another thing to do in a city of 2 million.
HARLOW: They are claiming to do that. That video with one of their hostages, James Cantlie, putting them all over Mosul as a reporter, saying, look, this is how great a society is run under ISIS.
Peter Bergen, to you, the challenge for ISIS in Syria -- can it be overstated how important it is that the U.S. relationship with Bashar al Assad is what it is, a lack of any constructive relationship? How much does that divide hurt our fight against ISIS there?
BERGEN: Just one thing on the Mosul point because I think it's very important. ISIS released a video saying how well they were doing in Mosul. I think very quickly, in response to a persuasive article by Liz Sly of "Washington Post", who's doing some of the best reporting, and she showed I think very convincingly that services are not being supplied in Mosul and that's a big issue for this group.
Now, on the issue of Bashar al Assad and the United States, I mean, our de facto position, unfortunately, whatever the public position is, is that Bashar Assad is being maintained in power and we're seeing an apartheid kind of pulling apart of the country. It's basically al Qaeda, ISIS and the government. The Free Syrian Army is basically mostly gone. There is no moderate Syrian opposition in any serious numbers on the ground. That's the situation we face today.
HARLOW: Gentlemen, don't go anywhere. Stick around. Quick break and then we'll talk about the situation in Saudi Arabia where the president will be on Tuesday and also Yemen.
Back in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: We are back with our panel now to talk about two countries which are allies to the U.S. in the war against terror. You have both countries just saw government shake-ups as Yemen's government was attacked this week and Saudi Arabia's king died.
Peter Bergen, to you, Yemen was seen as a real ally to the United States and, you know, a country that the U.S. pointed to and the administration pointed to as a success, a success story in the war against terror. Can we call it that now?
BERGEN: Well, it was a success story until about a year ago. There was a point where al Qaeda controlled much of southern Yemen in 2010 and 2011, it was really pushed back. Now, of course, we have the new situation and things change.
But, you know, Yemen is a country that's always have problems, that's running out of oil, its running of water. Its biggest contributor of aid is Saudi Arabia which will not help a Houthi Shia government, and things are -- they've never been good there and it's the poorest country in the Arab world and things got worse in the last week with the resignation of the government and the instability you're seeing.
HARLOW: So, David Gergen, weigh in on that, if you would. The administration not long ago, we all remember, pointing to Yemen, speaking publicly and saying, look, we successfully did this in Yemen and Yemen is one of the poorest economies in the entire region of the world. The U.N. predicting Yemen will run out of water by 2017. This is a crisis.
GERGEN: It is, indeed. I think others here are more expert on that, but I think the larger point is that this is no longer just about as we began to think Iraq, Syria and beating ISIS. What we're seeing is the breakdowns are breakouts of extremism now in Yemen and we're seeing this as Nigeria, which is totally out of control in the northern part of the country. We're seeing violence reaching Paris.
I was in Davos when Secretary of State Kerry came to the World Economic Forum, and in his speech was these situations are multiplying and we need a much more comprehensive approach to extremism around the world and that's why this conference at the White House in February 18th is going to be important. Secretary Kerry is talking about a situation where we spent trillions of dollars and he's saying we have to do something in effect, comparable to that.
HARLOW: Bob Baer, to you, when it comes to Saudi Arabia, if anyone had any question about how important Saudi Arabia is to U.S. policy and strategy in the region, they don't now with the president cutting a short trip to India, going there to meet with the new king on Tuesday, how critical is the relationship in terms of where the U.S. stands now in fighting the war against terror? How important is Saudi Arabia?
BAER: It is absolutely key. It's a pillar of stability in comparison to other countries around, if you look to Syria, Iraq and Yemen. It's also the same producer. It's affecting our economy right now by lowering oil prices by continuing to produce at high levels. It's absolutely crucial.
And what's crucial for us is the chaos in Yemen which I'm not sure we can fix doesn't spread into Saudi Arabia and there are a couple million Yemenis living in Saudi Arabia. You know, if this infects them or you have great migration problems, it could affect Saudi Arabia. So, we don't particularly like the way Saudis govern their country, but we have no alternative other than support the royal family and Saudi Arabia.
HARLOW: Colonel Reese, if you could, you were telling me in the break about whether or not special forces, you believe, should go into Yemen. At the same time, you have this group called the Houthis and many people are wondering what is that group and what does it stand for? Some are talking about its alliances with Iran. What are you seeing for Yemen?
REESE: Well, two things: one, diplomatically, the embassy will have to talk to Houthis, especially to continue our counterterrorism aspects in Yemen, but I also think that in a few days, that we'll see at least a precedent come back again, because the Houthis are not prepared to do this.
But, secondly, one of things we've go to watch is, everyone says, hey, let's throw special forces at it. That's great, that's a good thing, but when you have Congress coming to the Department of Defense and SOCOM and saying, hey, we want you to cut special forces by 20 percent, eventually, special forces are going to break, and that's going to affect us in all these other places.
HARLOW: Colonel Reese, is that great? Let's say the funding were there, right, and funding not being cut, et cetera. Let's take that scenario.
REESE: Sure.
HARLOW: Is it a great thing? Is it something that will prove successful given the fact that look what happened to Iraq now?
REESE: Well, I mean, special forces can't go in if there's no government, all right, and make it better. But if there is a government and if there's some type of stability, what our special operation forces can do is help stabilize the area and also interact -- especially with the counterterrorism aspects and its small element. It's not a lot of funding, but it's a smaller element and they bring a combat enabler to it.
HARLOW: David Gergen, you advised four presidents. If you were advising President Obama right now on the eve of his trip to Saudi Arabia, what would you say he should discuss with the new king in terms of the war against terror.
GERGEN: I think he should emphasize the need for continuity and Saudi policy and most importantly give them assurances about Iran. That's what the Saudis are deeply worried about, and they've been unhappy with the administration in recent months because they think there's too big a risk that the administration is going to cut a deal with Iran that's going to leave them a superpower in the area or that will put them on the verge of being a nuclear threshold status, it's called.
I think the president has to, in order to keep this relationship strong and I agree with everyone else who said how important Saudi Arabia is as a friend and ally of the United States and the larger war on terrorism. It's really important we show them that we can be a strong partner with them.
HARLOW: Well, also what the Saudis were upset about is the U.S. didn't take force against Syria, against Bashar al Assad. Is that something to be discussed between the president and new king?
GERGEN: Well, I think they've got to have a clear understanding about what the strategy is. We have two little wars against ISIS in Syria and no strategy. And there has to be some larger agreement about what it is we're trying to do.
I agree with the previous comments and it appears de facto that we're leaving Assad in power, but that's obviously not what the Saudis want and we need to have a serious, very private set of conversations about what the overall strategy must be.
HARLOW: All right. Gentlemen, thank you. Don't go anywhere. We're going to take a quick break.
On the other side, we're going to talk about Iran. Will Iran, could Iran emerge sort of the winner in all of this? That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: All right. Let's continue our panel discussion on the Middle East. Back with us all these gentlemen to talk about it.
Let's take a look at these three countries that seem to be holding their own in the midst of all of this turmoil in the Middle East -- Israel, Egypt and Iran.
Let me begin with you, Bob Baer. You wrote a book. A book called "The Devil We Know" talking about Iran and making a prediction that some say is likely right now. Give us a sense of if you think Iran is going to come out on top in this.
BAER: I had a very simple thesis in this book as written seven years ago is that the Sunni Muslims in the Middle East couldn't get it together and Iran would take advantage of the chaos, and I think indeed they have in Iraq, that's an Iranian-backed government in Baghdad, and you've got the Houthis, which are supported by Iran. You've got Bashar al-Assad who's holding on, supported by Iranian forces.
And you have Hezbollah which controls Lebanon for all intents and purposes. So I think the winner of the Arab spring, call it what you will, is definitely Iran and that's the way Saudi looks at it and that's why they so ardently, you know, oppose an agreement between the United States and Iran and the nuclear weapons. They say, you cannot abandon us on this and we are surrounded by all these hostile powers.
And it's really an Iranian-Saudi confrontation in the Middle East and right now the Iranians are on top.
HARLOW: So, David Gergen, to you, I mean, the president, Secretary Kerry have said hold on. They don't want Congress to try to pass any bills that would increase sanctions against Iran. They said let's just wait until July and see if we can get a nuclear deal done. See if we can get an agreement done, even though there have been so many extensions on the deadline. The president going to Saudi Arabia, meeting with them this week, the new king.
I mean, is that the number one thing that should be discussed?
GERGEN: Well, I think he does need to discuss sanctions so much as about -- what the terms of any agreement would look like and to make sure that the Saudis are going to be reasonably supportive. And if they think he sells them out in the negotiation with Iran, there's going to be hell to pay in terms of chaos in the region. It's going to be much, much more difficult to deal with these other -- other issues.
(CROSSTALK)
HARLOW: Well, what --
GERGEN: Go ahead.
HARLOW: I'm just interested, David, in what that means for our viewers. What does that mean there's going to be hell to pay? What can Saudi Arabia do to alter the position it has now that the U.S. needs? GERGEN: The Saudi relationship has been extremely important to us and
it means a solid relationship. Had been essential to use, whether it's been on oil over these last decades, whether it's been on stability in the Middle East. The -- you know, we have real problems with the Saudi human rights record, but nonetheless in terms of our -- in terms of our overall structure of stability in the Middle East, the United States relationship with the Saudi and with the Egyptians, big, big countries and you lose one of those relationships.
As we -- you know, Iran used to be our friend, and look at all the chaos it's been -- that's come from the fact that that relationship broke down. You lose this relationship with the Saudis and we're going to pay a price in a variety of ways that I don't think we've even contemplated yet and -- that's why this agreement is so delicate, this negotiation with Iran is so delicate you've got the Congress on one side.
I think -- I think the president has made headway in the last few days with the Senate in terms of passing the sanctions bill that he thought would disrupt the talks. I think he's now in a stronger position than he was two weeks ago and the administration makes good headway.
But still, this is a matter of enormous delicacy. And the Saudis have felt we haven't been talking to them. We haven't included them and they've been at the table just as the Emirates have fell until recently, they weren't at the table, and they -- they worry about whether we're erratic and whether the president is strong enough.
HARLOW: Right.
GERGEN: When he -- when they reversed himself on Syria the Saudis got very, very upset about that. And they began to think, you know, is he tough enough to deal with the Iranians?
HARLOW: Peter Bergen, to you, one headline not getting as much attention but very important, the instability in Egypt. Today you have the four-year anniversary of the uprising in Tahrir Square, 14 people killed in protest.
Is Egypt being not focused on enough when it comes to stability in the region?
BERGEN: Well, yes, I think that's true, Poppy. I think if the stories weren't so big in Yemen and Iraq and Syria we'd be more focused on Egypt which after all is the more populist Arab country. I mean, we've got a situation where Sisi, the new leader of Egypt --
HARLOW: Right.
BERGEN: -- is, in many ways, I think more autocratic than Mubarak who we regarded as an autocratic dictator. I mean, he's thrown many, many thousands people in prison. He's banned the Muslim Brotherhood which is after all an organization of millions of people, the largest political organization arguably in Egypt.
And I think he's creating a powder keg because these people may well turn to violence. We've already seen a group in the Sinai which is being quite effective at killing tourists and others, identifying itself as part of ISIS in the -- in just this past several months. So I think we're going to see a growing terrorism problem in Egypt because the government is, you know, basically repressing any form of political dissent, including completely legitimate forms.
HARLOW: Colonel Reese, a growing threat of terror in Egypt? Do you agree?
COL. JAMES REESE (RET.), FORMER U.S. DELTA FORCE OFFICE: Poppy, I'm not sure if I'll call it -- you know, they've always had their own terror aspects. I think one of the things we have to watch that's kind of fallen off the radar screen, you see the border to the west of Egypt is -- and that's Libya. I mean, that is a complete mess, anarchy, failed state, whatever you want to call it, and the Egyptians are having issues on the -- on the border out there, and that could become its own clashes coming up.
So that could be the next thing. And again, we already had it, and it's still out there floating and no one knows what to do with that.
HARLOW: Bob Baer, when -- Bob Baer, when it comes to Israel, you know we have Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu coming here to the United States at the invitation of -- of Congress to come speak in front of Congress about the negotiations with Iran. How strong a partner do we have in Israel right now when you talk about stability in the region?
BAER: Well, of course, Israel is the most stable country in the entire region. I think without any doubt, but it's got its own problems. The Palestinians are on the verge of a third intifada. They are also very worried about their borders. I mean, in Lebanon, still a lot of rockets coming into Lebanon from Iran. There's been an assassination just last week of an Iranian general.
The Israelis are very worried that the Iranians are going to plant a flag on the Golan Heights and they're feeling very insecure about Iran, too. What they can do about it, I don't know, it's a long-term problem.
HARLOW: Wow. It is unbelievable. We spent --
GERGEN: Poppy --
HARLOW: Go ahead, David Gergen, quickly.
GERGEN: Yes. Here, we've got -- we've got an extremely complicated problems -- set of problems, obviously. We need a victory somewhere in the Middle East. We need to do something against ISIS. We've got to break the idea that ISIS is on a victory path because that's what attractions recruits.
And we need -- we can't deal with all of this all at once, but we need to have a real punch somewhere which shows ISIS is going to lose this thing overall and you are going to sign up for your death warrant if you join up with ISIS.
HARLOW: David Gergen, Bob Baer, Peter Bergen, Colonel Reese, thank you all for being with me tonight. Appreciate it.
Coming up, after a quick break, one week from today, Super Bowl Sunday. We're going to talk about all the money behind the game, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: All right. You knew this was bound to happen. "Saturday Night Live" had some fun with deflate-gate skewering Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady. Here's a little bit of it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Good evening. As you can tell, I'm taking this very seriously that's why I got dressed up.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Look, all I know is that a football is a pigskin so I just assumed that the air in the football is how much air was inside the pig when it died.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tom, I think you're pretending to know a lot less than you actually do.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What? I'm not worried about the air pressure in the ball. That's nerd stuff. That's honestly above my pay grade.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You make $26.5 million a year.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes -- is that a lot? Guys, I don't know things.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: Super Bowl Sunday just a week away.
Cristina Alesci joining me now to talk about the crowd favorites, the commercials.
CRISTINA ALESCI, CNN MONEY: Absolutely.
HARLOW: We know some of them, right?
ALESCI: Yes, we do. The Super Bowl is as much a marketing event as it is a sporting event. People tune in just for the commercials and advertisers perceive this as a really unique opportunity if they can afford it.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ALESCI (voice-over): Super Bowl XLIX is already setting records. Even before the Patriots and the Seahawks take the field. Thirty- second ads are going for $4.5 million a pop. Half a million dollars more than last year. NBC sold nearly all of the spots even before the teams were set and all will be filled by kickoff.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They're wonderful, I'm wonderful. ALESCI: So what's driving the price so high? Eyeballs. The Super
Bowl will likely draw more than 100 million viewers as it has each of the past five years and that massive, captive audience gives advertisers something they can't get anywhere else.
BRIAN STELTER, CNN SENIOR MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: One hundred million people all watching the same thing at the same time, and most of them are just as interested in the ads as they are in the game. That is one of a kind. There's nothing like it on American television.
ALESCI: Budweiser's Clydesdales will be back this year. Anheuser- Busch InBev bought three spots that showcase Budweiser or Bud Light. But NBC says the technology, wireless and automotive industries have been weak spots this year.
Notables like Ford and Volkswagen didn't buy ads. That's opening up spots for rookies.
There are 15 first-time sponsors in 2015. The company behind Super Glue is one of them. So is Carnival Cruise Lines and Skittles, a favorite candy of Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch.
STELTER: One analyst says that advertisers are like ships. Looking for a safe harbor in the storm. Right now in this turbulent time for media, the Super Bowl is that safe harbor.
ALESCI: A safe harbor that doesn't come cheap.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ALESCI: And don't worry, if you miss the commercials because this year NBC is doing something different and actually posting them online to its Tumblr page as soon as they air. Of course, Tumblr is that micro-blogging Web site that everyone loves.
HARLOW: Right. I wonder, though, if they're -- obviously, they have metrics to measure how effective they are. Are they worth all of that money?
ALESCI: Not all the time. And the poster child for this is RadioShack last year.
HARLOW: Yes.
ALESCI: It spent a ton of money and the commercial was well received both by the ad experts and on social media among regular people, right? It mocked itself for being stuck in the '80s.
HARLOW: Right.
ALESCI: It used all of these characters from the '80s --
HARLOW: Like the Walkman. And --
ALESCI: Exactly. And you know what? Today they are facing bankruptcy. HARLOW: Yes. They had to file.
ALESCI: So clearly it's much more advantageous for a brand that can reinforce the message throughout the year.
HARLOW: Sure.
ALESCI: Rather than using the Super Bowl as a Hail Mary pass for your business.
HARLOW: Very good point because it's going to cost you a pretty penny. Some of these companies release their ads early, and I wonder why they -- why do they do that?
ALESCI: There are two schools of thought on this. One is we want to build a buzz, we want to get people interested so they want to see it again on television live. Then there are other advertisers especially this year that are keeping completely silent building, you know, that suspense.
(CROSSTALK)
HARLOW: I do -- I do like it when they have sort of the user generated ads and then the people win like $1 million for the best ads.
ALESCI: Yes. Sure.
HARLOW: I like it.
Cristina Alesci, thank you.
ALESCI: I want to play some of those.
HARLOW: Thank you.
All right. Well, coming up next, switching gears here. We watched racial tensions -- we watched racial tensions explode in Ferguson, Missouri, and across the country late last year. It is the subject of filmmaker Spike Lee's latest film. He spoke with our Stephanie Elam at the Sundance Film Festival.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SPIKE LEE, FILMMAKER: I like, Stephanie, this film a lot. And he came and showed it to me, and I said, it's very good. And so here we are at Sundance, and his thesis film is here in Sundance. That's amazing.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm still getting over it. You know, like, I'm here and it's like, I'm just going to screen the movie, you know, and see how people react to it, you know?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You heard (INAUDIBLE)?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Man, let's get out. UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They are really getting out of the car.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What's up, baby?
STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: George, you're from -- all three of you are from the St. Louis area, Michael is from St. Louis, as well. When you look at all that's happened with Mike Brown and the attention that your hometown has gotten of late, that has really put on the map for the world, sadly, how important do you think this movie is in light of Mike Brown and Ferguson?
GEORGE SAMPLE III, ACTOR, "CRONIES": I think it's very important because it shows a different aspect of what's being shown on (INAUDIBLE). It's not all negative in St. Louis. You might see it on the nightly news, the drama here, a problem with the movement over there, but it is not that I see on an everyday basis. You know, and it's good to see in this film, the good race relations that I do get to see.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: All right, Stephanie Elam joins us now live from the Sundance Film Festival.
Stephanie, obviously, this is getting a lot of buzz there. You saw the film. What did you think? What message does it send?
ELAM: Poppy, Spike Lee, now keep in mind that this was his student who you saw there in the gray sweatshirt. This was his thesis project that went on to come here to Sundance. Not a bad turn there, so Spike Lee is the executive producer. Michael Arnall, being from St. Louis, wanted to take it back and focused on that area. Found these three men, newcomers, had not acted in anything else, and taking on this role. They're all from St. Louis as well.
And they filmed this a year before the Michael Brown incident occurred. But what they said that they wanted to show was the nuance of how young men come of age and how our relationships change. And we see a lot of that with women, but we don't see that so much with men and so that's what the focus of this movie is, and that's why they're saying it's not just all just black and white, how those relationships happen, and when I say that, I don't necessarily mean race. I just mean everything --
HARLOW: Yes.
ELAM: -- has been more involved in that as we get older.
HARLOW: Yes. Absolutely. Interesting discussion.
Stephanie Elam, reporting for us all week from Sundance Film Festival. Thanks, Stephanie.
Coming up next, the IRS is actually allowed, it is legal for the IRS to seize your money, cash, even if you have not committed a crime. And even if you've always paid your taxes. A CNN special report next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: Innocent until proven guilty. It is a basic tenet of American law unless it seems you're dealing with the IRS in some cases.
Our Gary Tuchman talks to a 67-year-old Iowa grandmother whose entire bank account was seized by the IRS without any criminal charges filed.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GARY TUCHMAN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): When business was hopping, the line outside the door of this now shutdown Mexican restaurant in northern Iowa was long. People clamoring to get in. And Carole Hinders was in her element.
(On camera): Tell me why do you love this restaurant so much?
CAROLE HINDERS, FORMER OWNER OF MRS. LADY'S: Because it was mine and I got to make the decisions, choose the food, make the food. It's what I wanted to do.
TUCHMAN (voice over): Mrs. Lady's Mexican restaurant did not take credit cards, cash only and local checks, but after owning the business for 37 years, Carole Hinders was getting tired. She was thinking of selling, when one day in the spring of 2013, two IRS agents showed up at her front door.
HINDERS: I looked at their badges. They came in and proceeded to tell me that they were here to let me know that they had confiscated all my money for my business bank account and closed it.
TUCHMAN (on camera): How much money?
HINDERS: It was approximately $33,000.
TUCHMAN (voice over): That's right. The IRS took all of her money. Every dime. But didn't charge her with a crime. The government claimed that because Carole had routinely deposited cash into her account under $10,000, it was suspicious. She had, they claimed, structured her deposits, to avoid the reporting requirement that deposits over $10,000 would trigger. There's a fancy term for what the government did. Civil asset forfeiture.
(On camera): In the world of civil forfeiture, the government does not need you to be convicted of a crime before seizing your money. You don't even need to be charged with a crime. In civil forfeiture, you're not innocent until proven guilty, you're guilty until proven innocent.
(Voice-over): And to this day, Carole Hinders has been charged with nothing.
The idea behind Civil Asset Forfeiture began in the drug wars of the early '80s. Seize the cash and property owned by bad guys and the criminal networks would suffer greatly. Federal and state authorities are allowed to use seized cash for themselves to make legitimate purchases and expenditures for their offices.
LARRY SALZMAN, CAROLE HINDERS' ATTORNEY: It violates the due process rights for Americans. It's just wrong. There's a simple premise that the government should not be taking money from people who have done nothing wrong. It shouldn't be taking money from people who've not been charged, let alone convicted of any crime.
TUCHMAN: Attorney Larry Salzman works for the Institute for Justice, an advocacy legal group in Washington. He's representing Carole Hinders free of charge.
(On camera): So why are they picking on Carole?
SALZMAN: She's easy. Most people like Carole can't defend themselves. The government takes $33,000 from you, it will cost most people more money to get that back than what they've taken, so people just give up.
TUCHMAN (voice over): The IRS wouldn't talk on camera to CNN, but did issue a statement to us. Seeming to indicate it was backing off on at least some cases like Carole Hinders.
"We recognize that small business and other taxpayers often make deposits under $10,000 without any intent to avoid the reporting requirements," the statement said. And it added, "After conducting the review of the structuring cases, the IRS concluded that it will focus its limited resources on cases where evidence indicate that structured funds are derived from illegal sources."
The Department of Justice is an overall charge of the program. Officials there wouldn't talk on camera either, but they told CNN in a phone call that the program was vital and full of safeguards to protect those accused.
So what happened next? Only hours after we finished our interview with Carole Hinders, the government withdrew its complaint against her, but reserved the right to file it again at some point down the road, and what looked like, at least partly, the authorities trying to save face.
HINDERS: I don't feel it's a favor, but I feel it's a victory. And I think the most important thing is that we keep going on this civil forfeiture thing, and not let it drop.
TUCHMAN: Carole Hinders' restaurant, Mrs. Lady's, is empty. It's been sold to a new owner. Her memories of it fond, at least until the last few months it was open, when she was tormented by a federal agency that never charged her with a crime.
Gary Tuchman, CNN, Spirit Lake, Iowa.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HARLOW: Gary Tuchman, thank you for that report.
Quick break. We're back in a moment.
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