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Martin O'Malley Could be King Maker; Youth Vote in Iowa; Super Bowl 50. Aired 10:30-11a ET

Aired February 01, 2016 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[10:31:10] ERIN BURNETT, CNN HOST: Good morning. I'm Erin Burnett -- live in Des Moines, part of our special coverage here on CNN as we get ready for the Iowa caucuses countdown tonight.

Democrat Martin O'Malley is center stage. Hear me out. He may be stuck in the single digits. He's very much, he says fighting for the nomination. His impact on tonight's caucuses though could be huge.

CNN's Jeff Zeleny explains why Martin O'Malley could be king maker.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MARTIN O'MALLEY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Fight for viability and fight for the country that you carry in your heart.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In Iowa, all eyes are on Martin O'Malley.

O'MALLEY: There is no place on the planet that plays a greater role in determining the trajectory of this race than here in Iowa.

ZELENY: He's still running a distant third, but in the quirky rules of the Iowa caucuses, he's a potential king-maker. In places where he falls short of 15 percent, his voters will be asked to pick their second choice which could tip the balance for Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton.

(on camera): Some of your supporters, Governor, are viewed as the most important commodity in Iowa right now.

O'MALLEY: Because of their discerning judgment in candidates.

ZELENY: Right. So if they're not viable in some precincts across the state, do you urge them to follow their own instincts? Or should they go one way or the other?

O'MALLEY: I urge them to hold strong and fight for viability. That's what I encourage people to do.

ZELENY (voice-over): In Iowa, the second choice can be nearly as important as the first. It helped propel Barack Obama to victory here eight years ago. BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: If I'm not your first choice, make me your second choice.

ZELENY: The rules are different for Republicans. Voters don't have to make a backup plan tonight.

The democratic race is deadlocked.

Tom Henderson, the democratic chair in Iowa's largest county is an O'Malley supporter. He said one of the biggest mysteries about the Sanders-Clinton fight is where O'Malley's supporters may go.

(on camera): For most O'Malley supporters, is their second choice Sanders or Clinton?

TOM HENDERSON, O'MALLEY SUPPORTER: We don't know. That's always a big question

ZELENY: Sunday in Iowa, O'Malley urged voters to deliver a surprise.

O'MALLEY: I know you feel like you have a birthright on caucus night of upsetting the apple cart. And surprising the pollsters and surprising the pundits. That's what I need you to do now.

ZELENY: O'Malley's campaign is running out of money and time. For at least another day he's the center of attention.

(on camera): How well do you have to do here, Governor?

O'MALLEY: I don't know. I have to beat expectations and fortunately the national press has kept it very low for me.

ZELENY: Do you feel like a king maker at this point?

O'MALLEY: No, I don't, I feel like a candidate for president of the United States and the only one that has a track record of being able to bring people together and get things done. Those are two things that neither of my opponents can say.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ZELENY: Martin O'Malley is still making the case that he would be a new generation of leader for the Democratic part. But if he does not succeed tonight, how his supporters go, for Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton could determine how long this Democratic race proceeds from here.

Erin these quirky rules of the Iowa caucuses mean that those O'Malley supporters could carry a lot of weight tonight -- Erin.

BURNETT: All right. It's crucial and has everyone understanding why all the things that may seem small are so crucial tonight for this presidential election.

Joining me now, Ben Wickler, he is Washington director for moveon.org and of course, they have endorsed Bernie Sanders. Tracy Setl is Hillary Clinton's supporter and Democratic strategist.

Ok. So let's get down to this because this is fascinating. People say Bernie versus Hillary that's the race. No, Martin O'Malley. In a recent interview then, he said, his supporters said if he doesn't clear that 15 percent threshold to be viable, they're not going to go pick Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton. They're going to go home. Do you think that that's true? Or do you think that you're going to be able to get some of them, some of that crucial little over the margin case? For Sanders it could come down to that.

BEN WIKLER, WASHINGTON DIRECTOR, MOVEON.ORG: You know, from everything I've seen, every person I've talked to here in Iowa there are plans that the campaigns make, and they're good plans and then there's the energy and excitement that actual caucus goers feel. I don't think that there's a command and control system where every O'Malley supporter is going to take an order and lock into it.

[10:35:11] I think a lot of it is going to really come down to who what happens in that room. And when people are talking about expanding social security and tuition free college and Medicare for all, these are ideas that really fire up grassroots progressives, the Democratic base.

And I think what you're going to see in these rooms is people making decisions on the spot about what they really want to stand up for and what they care about. I'm feeling good about it.

BURNETT: So Tracy, when it comes down to -- (inaudible) to our viewers -- the GOP has one set of rules. You're going to have the close ballot. You give your first choice, that's it. Much more traditional.

You guys are complicated. All right. But you have a second -- you have to pick a second and choice and that second choice of course, can end up being make or break. So when you look at the "Des Moines Register" poll, it shows Sanders and Clinton are tied basically as second choice for Democrats in Iowa. So this shows tied at first, tied at second but second could make all the difference. How are they going to be able to get those the numbers up?

TRACY SETL, HILLARY CLINTON SUPPORTER: Well, there's no shortage of discussion on just how vigorous the organizing has been on behalf of Hillary Clinton's campaign. Every door possible has been knocked on.

But what then happens at 7:00 tonight is very different depending on where you are. You could be in a small library in a school. You could be in a huge gymnasium. The caucuses themselves, once you're actually in it tonight, there is no one standard. Every caucus is different. The sizes are different. The composition is different. It may be a very small town where people know each other incredibly well. Maybe in larger town.

So those dynamics absolutely affect what happens with that second ballot, if you will. And so to generalize about any of this, I think overlooks just how diverse the caucuses are on every level -- size, location, composition, age, all of these things. It's really hard to generalize, and that's why so much focus is on just how much organizing has been done because at 7:00 all bets are off.

BURNETT: All bets are off and then Ben, you've been making calls, calls, calls, calls, calls. I have to say, that is a tough job. You have to call people and try to win them over. What are they saying? Are they answering the phones? Are they saying they're going to come out?

WIKLER: The biggest thing is people aren't answering the phone because you know, they get a lot of calls -- where most people aren't --

You're not getting them not just answering the phones, but the voice mail is full.

WIKLER: Well there's voice mail is full, there's don't leave a message. People have gotten the point that there's a caucus happening. When you do reach someone, a lot of people are claiming to come out, people are excited about it. And I think there's a real level of attention and focus and rigor the people are bringing and certainly for Sanders supporters, you know, the Sanders campaign and its endorsers, folks that are working with them are really focused on making sure everyone who has shown the excitement, who's turned out for a rally or knock on doors or volunteer, absolutely everyone shows up tonight.

Moveon has 43,000 members in Iowa. And if Moveon's 43,000 members all show up and caucus --

BURNETT: Well, then, I mean that would be incredible. You're talking about 100,000 people voting. 43,000 would change the whole thing. People don't realize how much one vote can count.

All right. Well, thanks very much to both of you. I appreciate it. And we will be watching tonight. It is going to be an exciting one.

WIKLER: Thank for that.

SETL: Thank you.

BURNETT: And of course, I don't know -- 11:00, midnight, or whenever we actually get the results tonight, the race moves straight on to New Hampshire.

We have a very special event there this Wednesday night. All three Democratic presidential -- Clinton, Sanders, O'Malley will take part in a presidential town hall in Derry, New Hampshire on Wednesday night live right here on CNN.

It's going to be crucial. Of course Bernie Sanders with a huge margin in New Hampshire -- perhaps taking the biggest risk on that night. It's going to be a very exciting one. That is right here at 8:00 on Wednesday night on CNN. Anderson Cooper hosting.

And next after this break, who are young Republicans supporting in Iowa? We keep hearing about the youth divide on the Democratic side. It could be crucial on the GOP as well. The chair of the University of Iowa College, Republican will be our guest next.

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POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: The critical youth vote. Take a look. There's a brand new poll out this morning focusing on Iowa from Quinnipiac. Here's what it shows. Sanders has 74 percent. Trump with 31 percent support among that key young voter group 18 to 44.

Donald Trump may have celebrity on his side but it's not enough though necessarily to win over the evangelical vote. It is critical in Iowa. One young voter there telling us that he won't be voting for the Republican front runner.

I think it's important that we have a Christian leader of our nation and kind of get our country back on the right track. That's another problem I have with Trump. He doesn't seem to be quite as much a genuine Christian as Cruz or even Rubio.

HARLOW: All right. Let's talk about this with Janelle Smithson. She's the chair of the University of Iowa College Republicans. Thank you for being with me.

You're a Rubio supporter. Why do you think that Trump is polling better with young Republicans than Rubio? Trump comes in, in this poll at 31 percent. Rubio comes in at 19 percent.

JANELLE SMITHSON, UNIVERSITY OF IOWA COLLEGE REPUBLICANS: I think that Trump has kind of a pull with young voters and voters in general because he is the quote/unquote, "not politician". And so people are encouraged by him because they think he's an outsider and that he'll be able to take our country forward that way.

But I still see Senator Rubio as the way to go for our country.

HARLOW: All right. You see it that way. How do you energize those that agre4e with you to get out there and caucus tonight for Rubio?

[10:44:57] SMITHSON: I think you kind of just show them the state of our country then, and the view that Senator Rubio has for us going forward. Economically, on foreign policy, keeping our country safe, even encouraging the students as well and to get out and vote and just getting out on campus, letting them know that this is an important year and we need to get to our caucus sites and let everyone know how we feel.

HARLOW: I want to talk Janelle about how the Republican voter has changed. When you talk about the young Republicans in this country, here's something that really stood out to me from an "Atlantic" article. It says according to Pew, a clear majority of young Republicans say immigrant strength in America, half say corporate profits are too high.

Almost half say stricter environmental laws are worth the costs answers that sharply distinguish them from older members of the GOP. It goes on to say young Republicans are more likely to favor legalizing marijuana than older Democrats and almost as likely to support gave marriage.

Are you seeing this shift play out among young Republican voters in Iowa, especially on those social issues?

SMITHSON: Yes. I think the shift we're seeing is that the new conservative issues are coming out. People are looking for smaller government, less intervention in their lives. And so if that means less regulation, that's good for us as individuals. And it's not coming right down from Washington.

And so I do see people lessening up on social issues; people lessening up on other issues as well as immigration. But I think it will be really interesting to see how young Republicans kind of work with this and become the new party.

HARLOW: The new party. All right. Let's pull up how the Iowa Republican Party is trying to cater to you guys. Take a look at this. This comes from their Website. Sort of the front page there focusing on young voters, young Republicans.

What do you say to those who argue that focusing on young voters is a wasted effort? They say, look, you guys don't get out to caucus as much. Right now you're in college in session. So you're going to caucus in more contained areas rather than all over the state where your homes are. What do you say to them?

SMITHSON: I don't really believe that at all. I think young voters are incredibly important, especially with student loan issues going on, student debt. There's a ton of issues that pertain to students -- the security of our nation and our economy. And so I think that is really not entirely true. And I think there are going to be a ton at students at the University of Iowa who are going to be getting out caucusing tonight. And most of them being first-time caucus goers.

HARLOW: I know you're excited, of course. Have a good time tonight. Janelle Smithson -- thank you very much.

SMITHSON: Thank you. Thank you.

HARLOW: All right. Checking top stories.

Two Virginia tech students facing charges in the death of a 13-year- old girl -- they're due in court today. The missing girl's body was found in North Carolina near the Virginia border. Freshman David Eisenhower faces murder charges; Natalie Keepers is charged with improper disposal of the body.

Police say Eisenhower was acquainted with the victim, who you see right there Nicole Madison Lovell. He used the relationship to abduct and kill her.

SUSAN: An investigation is now underway after a private citizen pulled over a Miami Dade County police officer for speeding. The driver posted the video. She says look, the officer was going 90 miles an hour without his lights. She followed him and pulled him over. He says he wasn't going too fast. The department is looking into the case.

Wall Street kicks off February on a down note. The Dow now down just about 75 points as we open the back. Oil sinking back toward about $33 a barrel.

Another reason for the drop -- China's economy. The country's manufacturing activities slumped once again in January.

Still to come, the count down to the Super Bowl. It begins This is football weekend. It's politics week in Iowa. And all anyone can talk about right now is Newton's pants. We'll talk about it straight ahead.

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HARLOW: All right. There is something else going on outside of politics. If you can believe it, we're talking foot ball -- big football week, six days to go until Super Bowl 50. Are you rooting for the Panthers or are you on Team Broncos?

Either way you're probably jealous of our Coy Wire. He is joining us from the best assignment of the week, no question. You've got palm trees behind you. Everyone in Iowa is freezing covering the Caucuses.

You're in down town San Francisco with the (inaudible) to report. Good morning.

COY WIRE, CNN SPORTS: Good morning -- Poppy. Someone has to do it and I guess I'll take this responsibility.

The game is still six days away but this city is already starting to buzz. I've been here all weekend. The teams didn't arrive in the Bay Area until yesterday. The story of day wasn't about the AFC championship or NFC -- teams rolling into town.

It was about one man -- Cam Newton strolling around in his brand new fancy pants. Check these out -- Gold, black, white, zebra print, Versace skinny jeans. Really skinny. Those are $850, and they're already sold out online. Sorry, viewers at home, you'll have to wait to get yours.

Now Denver on the other hand, they didn't have any brazen broncos, no fancy fashionistas on their trip. Peyton Manning looking quite conventional and traditional in his suit and tie. Now media day is traditionally held on Tuesday but for the first time ever it's taking place, in the evening.

It's tonight just after Tuesday. Now there was one football game this weekend, kind of, the pro bowl from Hawaii and tackling with definitely optional in this when apparently they called it a sack in the Pro Bowl these days.

And this play earned Seattle's Michael Bennett defensive, MVP honor -- just look at the effort on this. Oh my gosh, the football gods are frowning upon this when Team Irvin beat Team Right 49 to 27. [10:55:06] Finally guys, John Scott's controversial appearance in the NHL all star game turned into a fairytale ending. Scott was sent down to the minor leagues after being traded a couple of weeks ago. But a fan-write in campaign made him a captain for the game. And then after scoring two goals the fans voted him MVP. His teammates carried him on their shoulders before he was presented with the winning teams "million dollar check".

He also gets a minivan for his two little daughters and his wife. They're expecting twins any day.

Now we're here live from San Fran all week. And we look forward to sharing with you all the sights and sounds of Super Bowl 50 -- Poppy.

HARLOW: You enjoy that assignment -- Coy. You're the lucky one this weekend.

WIRE: I will I'll try.

HARLOW: Thank you so much. Cory Wire for us with the Bleacher Report -- thank you all for joining me and Erin today. I'm Poppy Harlow, in for Carol Costello.

"AT THIS HOUR" with Berman and Bolduan live from Des Moines, Iowa is next.

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