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Early Start with John Berman and Zoraida Sambolin
Cruz Wins Iowa, Tops Trump; Clinton Declares Victory. Aired 4- 5a ET
Aired February 02, 2016 - 04:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Good morning. Welcome to EARLY START, everyone. I'm John Berman.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Christine Romans. It is Tuesday, February 2nd. It is 4:00 a.m. in the East.
And a big night, breaking news right now: we are looking at what happened in Iowa last night and everyone now heads to New Hampshire and what we know for sure on the Republican side is that Ted Cruz won.
BERMAN: Ted Cruz won. And that seems like it happened a thousand hours ago, because we have been up all night. Ted Cruz first, Donald Trump second, and Marco Rubio third. That happened like four and a half years ago.
[04:00:00] All night, we have been counting votes on the Democratic side.
ROMANS: Look at that.
BERMAN: You see the razor thin margin there. In just a few short minutes ago, we got news that may tell us what the results could be when we declare the final winner.
Let me read the statement from the Democratic Party chair, "Hillary Clinton has been awarded 699.57 state delegate equivalents. Bernie Sanders has been awarded 695.49 state delegate equivalents." You see Martin O'Malley right there. He dropped out of the race.
The state director tells us we still have one outstanding precinct. We're still waiting for one precinct in Polk County, which is Des Moines.
ROMANS: That's right. Was it leaning Clinton?
BERMAN: Leaning Hillary Clinton, but that's only worth 2.28 state delegates. Even if Bernie Sanders wins all that, I'll show the math right here, ladies and gentlemen, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, it was a 4.08 state delegate equivalents difference right there. There are only 2.28 state delegates equivalents remaining. That's the mathematical situation which is why the Clinton campaign says she won.
ROMANS: That's right. She has won the Iowa caucus. That's the statement from the campaign. They are looking at that map, clearly, and saying they are ready after thorough reporting and analysis and results, they say there's no uncertainty that she has won this race.
BERMAN: Let's go right to Chris Moody, because again, this is just coming in right now. And to be clear, CNN has not called this race, but we did just look at the math -- Chris.
CHRIS MOODY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the math looks to be on Hillary Clinton's side here in Des Moines. It is getting obviously very late. Many of the candidates have already left the state.
The snow if you can see it is starting to fall. And even though the Republicans were announced so long ago, we're still waiting on that last precinct in the last county here in Des Moines.
The statement from the Democratic Party said that this was the closest Democratic caucus in history and one with one of the largest turnouts in history. This is certainly one for the ages.
BERMAN: To be sure. Anytime you are separated by something called a state equivalent, which no one even understands what it means. It's not a real thing. It's a mathematical formulation of 4.08. It is the closest in history to be sure.
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both up in the air right now, both flying to New Hampshire. And when they land, I imagine Hillary Clinton could come out and say, hey, I won.
ROMANS: They are up in the air literally and figuratively, at this moment, at least if you look at those numbers. One thing that's so interesting, when you look at just the razor thin margin of this, Chris Moody, is that last night, looking at the entrance polls. You know, you have young people who love Bernie Sanders. You have establishment, you know, traditional Democratic voters, people who are not first time caucusgoers who liked Hillary Clinton.
Anecdotally, you heard that inside those caucus locations, it was divided up. You know, one of my deep sources, plus, my niece, she said they were old people for Hillary Clinton and young people for Bernie Sanders. That is how she put it, Chris Moody.
MOODY: Well, everyone knows in Iowa, the ground game is important. And both campaigns showed that they really had tremendous operations here on the ground in Iowa. I think it is important, especially to look at Bernie Sanders. Someone who's really considered the underdog in this race, coming close to Hillary Clinton here.
When they both land in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton, will certainly -- if we -- once we declare it, she will be able to declare victory and be very happy. But I think Bernie Sanders is going into New Hampshire also happy as well. He will have a lot of momentum saying he is very close. The polls in New Hampshire are looking good for him.
BERMAN: All right. Chris Moody in Des Moines, thanks from being with us. I'm sweating here. Nothing makes me sweat like math. And math here
is complicated to figure out right now. It is. This is dramatic stuff.
MOODY: I'm certainly not.
BERMAN: You're cold in Iowa.
It's 4:00 in the morning, the morning after the Iowa caucus, and we still haven't called it. We are trying to figure out the difference between 4.08 state delegate equivalents and 2.28.
I want to bring in our panel right now. Thank you so much, Chris.
Joining us here live, CNN political commentator Tara Setmayer. She's a former communications director for California Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher. Democratic strategist Maria Cardona, Sally Kohn, a columnist with "The Daily Beast", and Ben Ferguson, the host of "The Ben Ferguson Show".
Good morning one and all.
BEN FERGUSON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Good morning.
MARIA CARDONA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Good morning.
BERMAN: We have done a lot on the Democratic race. And hopefully, maybe while we're talking, we'll get an official declaration, one way or the other.
So, let's talk about the Republicans, about the one winner we know for sure, Ben Ferguson, and that is Ted Cruz. I suppose there's also one loser we know for sure, and he would not like me saying that, and that's Donald Trump.
FERGUSON: And it's going to be very weird moving forward to see how Donald Trump deals with this. It will be interesting to see where the money goes. You will see a lot of small donors that will continue to really pour in to Ted Cruz.
The big question is, the big checks that are going to people like Jeb Bush. Where are they going to go? I think Marco Rubio is going to be that person that's going to end up getting this.
I think the big takeaway, though, from tonight is this -- everyone was expecting that Donald Trump would win this.
[04:05:04] And then there was going to be the question of, how do you stop him? Is he even -- are you even able to stop him when he is over 40 percent in the national polls?
That poll -- the national poll does not matter anymore. You have three viable candidates. You may have a one with Kasich as we move forward in New Hampshire. We don't know yet. But obviously, this is far from over. I think that's good for the Republican debate.
You will see people drop out. But, ultimately, Donald Trump is not going to run away with this election.
ROMANS: Let's listen to sound from Donald Trump. You don't usually hear humble Donald Trump or somebody who is not just winning completely outright. Let's listen to how he reacted.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDAT: I was told by everybody do not go to Iowa. You could never finish even in the top ten. And I said, but I have friends in Iowa. I know a lot of people in Iowa. I think they'll really like me. Let's give it a shot. They said, don't do it. I said, I have to do it.
And we finished second. I want to tell you something. I'm honored. I'm really honored. I want to congratulate, Ted, and I want to congratulate all of the incredible candidates.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROMANS: Does he go into New Hampshire, Maria Cardona, chasten a little bit? I mean, did he insult Iowa voter when he skipped the debate? Did he miscalculate?
CARDONA: Yes, I think just a little bit. And he's not used to being in this position. And like I said earlier, you know, he's going to make second place great again.
But I think one of the things that I have to say here that I've been thinking about all night, is this has got to be a delicious moment for Ted Cruz, because let's remember everything that Donald Trump threw at him. He tried to bring up the fact that Donald Trump thinks he's not legitimate and can't run because he was born in Canada. He talked about how evangelicals don't really come out of Cuba. I mean, he threw everything at him.
FERGUSON: Called him an anchor baby.
CARDONA: Called him an anchor baby.
FERGUSON: Yes.
CARDONA: It is an interesting position. Donald Trump is stuck between a Cuban immigrant who beat him and a Cuban immigrant who is nipping at his heels. Who thought that he would ever find himself --
(CROSSTALK)
BERMAN: Call him a Cuban sandwich. That is what you call it.
Hang on, Sara. I want to -- quickly, I want to talk about Marco Rubio. He did finish third and the Republican establishment, if you don't follow Twitter, you have -- you know, if you do, you received 8,000 tweets from members of the establishment saying, Marco-mentum. This only proves that Marco wins everything.
Let's listen to Marco Rubio claiming victory in third place. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: For months they told us because we did not have the right endorsements or the right political connections, we had no chance. They told me that we have no chance because my hair wasn't gray enough and my boots were too high. They told me I needed to wait my turn, that I needed to wait in line.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BERMAN: All right. So, he takes this, Tara, in New Hampshire. Can he execute? Can he get second place?
TARA SETMAYER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I think we'll -- that remains to be seen. I mean, a week is an eternity in politics and we've been talking about where does the money go? When you have momentum like this, Iowa, when people talk about why is Iowa so important and all the different things, one of them is momentum.
You know, Marco Rubio wouldn't be the first person to not win Iowa and end up winning the Republican nomination. It happened plenty of times before. So, when Marco Rubio has about $9 million right now cash on hand and Jeb Bush has $67 million with his super PAC and his campaign. Where the donors go is important. Jeb Bush donors are expressing concern here over whether they wasted their money. And all of this money --
FERGUSON: Two thousand dollars a vote here.
SETMAYER: Two thousand eight hundred dollars a vote actually and they're not happy about the fact that Jeb Bush has bloodied up Rubio so badly instead of going after Trump with all that money. So, are they going to defect over to Marco Rubio now? I think with the showing like this tonight, with the speech like he gave tonight, I think you're going to see the coffers fill for Marco Rubio.
ROMANS: Hasn't his strategy been to try to separate himself from the governors and show that he is the establishment, right? So, does this, even though it's third place, Ben Ferguson, does this mean that he gets that mantle, I guess, here as you move in to New Hampshire?
FERGUSON: Yes, but I think he'd gotten away. You don't want to be the establishment pick early on.
SETMAYER: Dirty word.
FERGUSON: Yes, exactly. It's a four-letter word in politics, especially on the Republican side. He is basically saying I earned it. I have earned the respect of those who said that I was not supposed to be here.
He started that speech off by making it clear I was told this is not my time. It was Jeb Bush's time. I was told by the establishment to wait my turn. I did it anyway. That makes him a bit of an outsider.
He is obviously is I think you can say, the easy choice for many people to give money in the Republican circles moving forward, and I think his point was, listen up, people, I'm here to stay.
[04:10:05] I also think there is one other thing about this big victory tonight for Ted Cruz. This allows Ted Cruz to play in the SEC. He has weathered the storm. He's going to be OK in New Hampshire. He is not expected to win there. He's going to be OK in South Carolina.
When you go to the SEC, Ted Cruz now is definitely a viable candidate. He weathered the storm and it gives him a longer window and gets him ready for that big day in the SEC, which is where I think he can capitalize.
BERMAN: All right, guys, stand by. Stand by.
We're going to talk much more about the Democrats. Sally, we're going to have you weigh in, in just a little bit.
We are following breaking news right now. The breaking news is this -- look at this map right there. This is a code for something. It is the Democratic results of the Iowa caucuses. We are getting awfully close to maybe being able to say someone sort of won? We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BERMAN: All right. The breaking news we just heard from the Iowa Democratic state party chair explaining that this is the situation. I won't walk you through the math again.
But the situation is this: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are separated by 4.08 state delegate equivalents. It is too complicated to explain what that is, but it's about 4/10th of a percentage points right now. There's one precinct remaining, one outstanding precinct.
It doesn't look like if all those people voted for Bernie Sanders, it doesn't look like he can make up the difference.
[04:15:05] But we are double and triple and quadruple checking our math on that right now. But, right now, the math seems to be leaning in Hillary Clinton's favor.
ROMANS: It is razor thin. It has been all night. It looks us though the math is leaning in Hillary Clinton's favor. Hillary Clinton's campaign has said she is the winner, looking at that map. No official declaration, though, from the Democratic Party in Iowa.
Jeff Zeleny has just landed. He is traveling with the Clinton campaign.
BERMAN: Bernie Sanders, let me -- I think Jeff is with Bernie Sanders, yes?
ROMANS: All right. Jeff is with Sanders. And he just landed.
Hi, Jeff.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Hey, good morning.
ROMANS: Good morning.
BERMAN: So, how about this news -- 4.08 state delegates separating Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton? The Clinton campaign declared victory. Do the Sanders folks know this just yet or are they still sleeping in first class?
ZELENY: Not much first class on Eastern Airlines. They actually did not have an internet connection on the plane. They are probably just learning this right now.
But I can tell you that Senator Sanders is declaring a different kind of victory. He said this exactly when he talked to reporters briefly in the flight that was just about two hours long. He said we are in it until the convention. We are going to win some states, we're going to lose some states, but we are in this for the long haul.
He said we began the campaign. We are a fringe campaign. He said the results of Iowa certainly suggest that is no longer the case.
So, the Sanders campaign moving forward. He will hold a couple rallies later today. And he is, of course, participating in the CNN town hall on Wednesday. So, you know, the number of delegates is pretty close. Senator Sanders said he would not contest the result. So, once they find out the results, he said he with not contest them, but they are plunging ahead, John.
ROMANS: Again, a very -- a razor thin -- razor thin margin there. About the mood on the plane? You say they did not have an Internet connection. You are there. You landed.
What can you tell us about what people are feeling about the night?
ZELENY: Sure, we are actually still taxiing. It is a charter plan. It does not have a Bernie Sanders logo on it. The pilot did call it Air Bernie. The plane was filled with a lot of young staffers who greeted Sanders with booming applause when he and his wife Jane and other family members boarded the plane.
So, very, very happy Sanders campaign doing what many people did not think was possible or that they would do in Iowa. So, incredibly happy they are flying here. The reality is they know this is the beginning. Only the beginning and they are running against a very tough organization, a tough rival with the Clinton campaign. This is just the beginning.
But he had a bit of a bounce in his step. Talked for about five minutes or so, and maybe got a bit of sleep on the short two-hour flight from Des Moines to Manchester.
BERMAN: Well, Jeff, two things. One, I certainly hope you got sleep on the flight from Des Moines to Manchester. I also hope your seatbelt is fastened.
Well, you're a hard worker and respect that. Tell us what Bernie Sanders has in store today. Is he doing morning show interviews? Does he have an event? What do we expect today?
ZELENY: Right, he talked a bit on the plane that he would avoid the morning show interviews. So, at this point, I don't believe he is doing them. But he is going to hold a couple of rallies today in New Hampshire.
He's going to be in Claremont, New Hampshire and then go home tomorrow to Vermont and sleep in his own bed, I'm told. Then of course back in New Hampshire for the CNN town hall. Now his only remaining rival, Hillary Clinton, of course, that is Wednesday night in New Hampshire.
So, again, his pledge to fight all the way to the convention was notable. That signifies this is a long campaign -- longer than anyone would have imagined.
John, I can tell you they have not started counting their money yet, but they are doing a huge fund raising push. It began even before the senator spoke in Des Moines. They were sending e-mail messages and text messages and on social media. So, they believe this is a major fundraising opportunity for them.
And don't forget, they raised $20 million in January alone just online. An average contribution of $27. So, you can bet that that is going to multiply over the next several hours and certainly several days.
BERMAN: A whole lot of counting in this campaign. No one told me there would be math.
ROMANS: Jeff Zeleny on Air Bernie, just landing, taxing in Manchester, New Hampshire, with a big day ahead. Thanks. We'll talk to you very, very soon.
[04:20:01] BERMAN: It's so interesting. Bernie Sanders came back and talked on the plane five minutes to reporters and talking about the moral victory he thinks he has won. It's exhausting, it's exhausting for these candidates, but invigorating too. They have to start all over.
ROMANS: Good thing you have a sharpie.
BREMAN: Yes.
We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROMANS: All right. Welcome back.
Our breaking news this morning: we know who won the GOP Iowa caucuses.
BERMAN: Ted Cruz.
ROMANS: Ted Cruz. No question there. Donald Trump second. In third place, Marco Rubio coming up in third place. So, a lot of happy people in the Marco Rubio camp this morning.
BERMAN: What we know about the Democratic race is Hillary Clinton is leading by 4.08 state delegate equivalents. That is 4/10th of a percentage point. There are only a tiny few votes still remaining to be counted right now.
The math leans in Hillary Clinton's favor. We are not yet calling the race. The Iowa Democratic party not calling the race, although the Clinton campaign is. They say they won and they just landed in New Hampshire.
And we have CNN politics producer Dan Merica on the plane, on the Clinton campaign in New Hampshire.
Dan, can you hear me?
DAN MERICA, CNN POLITICS PRODUCER: I can hear you.
[04:25:00] How are you doing, John?
BERMAN: Tell me everything. How was the flight? What was the mood? When did they learn the math may be in their favor?
MERICA: The flight was sleepless. Yes, we just landed. Actually, Brian Fallon, the national press secretary got on the loud speaker to remark about the Iowa Democratic Party about the race. If I read the statement correctly, it says Hillary Clinton has been awarded 699.57 state delegate equivalents. Bernie Sanders has 695 state delegate equivalent.
Upon getting on the plane, Brian Fallon announced the Clinton campaign in their vision or their mind has won the race and then he joked that news networks would not get off the plane until we in fact called the race as well.
BERMAN: You, I hate to tell you, you're stuck on the plane for a while. We're waiting for people to double check our math here. So, we haven't called it just yet despite the Clinton campaign says they won and despite the fact the numbers seem to add up in her favor.
ROMANS: It is incredibly close, though, Dan. What is the mood among the staffers? Are they elated? Are they -- are -- how do we feel heading into New Hampshire?
MERICA: I think when we were taking off, there was an expectation on the plane and there was certainly confidence in what they were saying. I think upon landing, reading the Democratic Party statement and few things they picked up, there is no watch lounge on the plane. It's a news free zone.
There were cheers in front of the plane when we touched down. They read the statement and e-mails from the headquarters.
BERMAN: So there were cheers? There were cheers, there were cheers?
MERICA: There were cheers. Yes, when we landed, there were cheers in the front of the plane. I think they certainly grew more confident when we landed. I think they were certainly projecting confidence when we took off. I think that confidence was mostly an act, trying to maintain faith for New Hampshire.
BERMAN: All right. Dan Merica on Air Clinton just landing in New Hampshire. Cheers in front of the plane when they got the news that the math seems to be pointing in their direction in Iowa. We barely heard from Bernie Sanders before he was talking about taking this race all the way the convention on his plane.
We are getting reports from planes left, right and center. This is exciting.
ROMANS: It is exciting. And, look, we are heading into a big day of campaigning. These players will sharpen their -- sharpen their messages about each other to New Hampshire voters. We're going to be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[04:31:23] ROMANS: Breaking news this morning: new numbers just in for the Democratic race, maybe pointing to a winner.
A definite winner on the Republican side, Ted Cruz. Dare we say a loser? Humbled loser potentially? Donald Trump. Marco Rubio coming up on third place.
OK. Welcome back to EARLY START. I'm Christine Romans.
BERMAN: I'm John Berman. Thirty-one minutes past 4:00 a.m., and we might finally possibly soon have a winner in the Democratic caucus. We got numbers in from the Iowa state Democratic Party.
Look at the spread right now, 0.4 of a percentage point. That's with all but one single precinct reporting. You can see the actual math difference, something called state delegate equivalents. Complicated math here.
The point is they are separated by 4.08 state delegates. There are 2.08 remaining. So, the math seems to be leaning in Hillary Clinton's favor.
We haven't called the race yet. The Clinton campaign, they have declared victory. It is a very tiny victory. But nevertheless, they just landed and a cheer from the press plane from their section of the press plane, the Clinton staffers, when they landed, because they do think they won.
Let's get the latest from Des Moines. That is where senior politics reporter Chris Moody is reporting from.
Chris, it seems they have counted all the votes at long last.
MOODY: Almost all of them. What a night in Des Moines. What a long night here in Iowa. The snow has just started falling down on us. We are so close to getting that last precinct. As you have spoken
about several times, the math is looking very good for Hillary Clinton here. And there's a lot of victories celebrated. Not here, but in New Hampshire where all the candidates have already gone long ago.
Ted Cruz declaring victory for getting the most here in Iowa on the Republican side. Marco Rubio for exceeding expectations. Hillary Clinton for doing what the math looks like doing the best, and also Bernie Sanders for also exceeding expectations.
BERMAN: And, Chris, Bernie Sanders on the stump today or on the plane today. Jeff Zeleny was talking to him. Bernie Sanders came back and talked to him for five minutes. He said he's going to take the fight all the way to the convention. It does seem he is invigorated to say the least.
MOODY: He certainly does. And I think he has reason to feel that way. The expectations for Hillary Clinton for so much of the primary process at least for people started voting was that she is inevitable and she was going to take it away.
Well, he put up a good fight here in Iowa, and I think that is going to motivate him. Looking forward to the numbers in New Hampshire, those also look good for him.
Also, if you look at his war chest, Bernie Sanders has plenty of money. He will always tell you many are from small donors, under $30. So, he's got the cash flow to stay in it for the long haul. And now with Martin O'Malley, it's just him against Hillary Clinton. If tonight is any indication, we have a heck of a primary going forward.
ROMANS: And they expect there will be more money coming in quite frankly after this performance, especially among that performance with young people in Iowa. Really those numbers, those really staggering the way young people in Iowa supported Bernie Sanders.
Chris Moody, thank you so much for that.
Let's break down these results, the winners and the losers and very close Democratic race with out CNN political commentators, Tara Setmayer, she's former communications for California Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, Democratic strategist Maria Cardona, Sally Kohn, columnist for "The Daily Beast", and Ben Ferguson, host of "The Ben Ferguson Show".
Good morning to all of you.
FERGUSON: Good morning.
BERMAN: A long night, this is like -- this is 72 hours right now, the one very long day.
[04:35:01] And everyone is in motion. We are getting calls from the planes and campaigns are starting to land in New Hampshire.
Sally, let's start with you. Let's listen to what former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said about what kind of candidate, what kind of president she will be.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It is rare that we have the opportunity we do now to have a real contest of ideas. To really think hard about what the Democratic Party stands for and what we want the future of our country to look like if we do our part to build it. I am a progressive who gets things done for people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROMANS: A progressive who with gets things done for people. That is a nod obviously to Bernie Sanders. Does she has to change her strategy at all here going into New Hampshire and beyond because of just how close it was in Iowa, especially among young people?
SALLY KOHN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Let's be clear: she already is. If we step back, what is happening in this election is actually for Bernie Sanders and his supporters, bigger than just the Democratic nominee. What's so -- what we should read into the comment he intends to take this all the way through the campaign and through convention is he always intended to do that. That was the point all along.
If you talk to anyone in the Sanders camp, they never planned to win. They never thought they'd do this well. Winning, the possibility of him being a viable candidate, that is the icing on the cake.
He wants to transform the political system and he certainly wants to transform the Democratic Party. What is so exciting here is, A, you see Hillary shifting. You see her becoming more populist, supporting the kinds of bold proposals not only that the majority of the Democrats support but that the majority of the American people, but that too corporate Democratic Party, Republican Party have stood in the way of.
And you see young people getting engaged. Wouldn't it be nice if we could not be cynical about politics and be engaged among a young generation? That is a pretty exciting potential.
FERGUONS: He has enthusiasm.
TARA SETMAYER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Can she sell it? She had difficulty selling this message which is why she is redefining herself five or six times. Now she is a progressive.
FERGUSON: She was a grandmother once.
SETMAYER: That's right. She was a grandmother. She was a woman.
KOHN: She can't be more than one thing at a time?
(CROSSTALK)
BERMAN: Hang on, hang on, stop, stop, stop.
I want to talk about the moment right now because the Clinton campaign is declaring victory after the math is coming.
And, Maria Cardona, you are close to the campaign. They may have eked out a 0.4 percent victory. Maybe. We don't know. We haven't declared it yet. But, right now, they are leading in the poll by 0.4 percent.
It's a razor thin margin. Bernie Sanders is declaring a moral victory. But let's look at the other side. Let's take the Clinton perspective. A 0.4 percent victory, though it is small, how much better is it than say a 0.4 percent defeat would be?
CARDONA: Absolutely. And, look, going into Iowa, the polls were showing it was close. People were talking about how it was very possible that Hillary Clinton could lose there. And, of course, it would be much worse if she lost there and she didn't. I think what this shows frankly, is the Democratic Party comes out of this with two big winners. Hillary Clinton because of the math and she actually does get more delegates.
BERMAN: She gets one more delegate.
CARDONA: It's still more delegate. At the end of the day, this is a race for delegates.
And Bernie Sanders, you've got to give it to him. Kudos to him, right? I mean, he ran a fantastic campaign. He is getting young people involved. I agree completely with Sally. That is important to do here.
I think Hillary moving forward is going to do everything she can to make sure she keeps those Sanders' supporters at least, you know, looking at her as a viable alternative. Because let's not forget what is great in the numbers for Hillary, is that when you look at the people who support Sanders, they support Sanders because they like him, not because they don't like her, they just like him better.
FERGUSON: Here is the issue. If you are Hillary Clinton leaving tonight, the question is what won you Iowa? I don't think her campaign can answer that question.
(CROSSTALK)
FERGUSON: Here's my thing, when it comes to messages, Bernie Sanders knows exactly why he got so close to winning here. He understands what to do moving forward. I'm not sure Hillary Clinton, if you land on this plane and you have a sigh of relief you didn't come in second, the question is what do you do now because I don't think they have a clear campaign path here or messaging path that will somehow overcome Bernie Sanders at this point?
We know Bernie Sanders. The voters know Bernie Sanders. He's never changed. Hillary has morphed a couple times. If I'm on her campaign today, I'm trying to figure out what is the message moving forward that gives me an advantage because, whatever they did in Iowa is not an advantage.
[04:40:03] KOHN: But that's exactly --
CARDONA: She won
KOHN: -- that is a perfect message. Sanders still comes out with strong momentum. The fact he has taken up so much of her strong lead is, of course, they're afraid.
(CROSSTALK)
KOHN: The thing is the Sanders campaign, there is no message plan. He was just himself. Almost to a fault. I think he needs to be stronger on foreign policy. He's going to need to, if he wants to be a viable candidate, he needs to do more than just speak more about economic inequality and justice, powerful and evocative though it is.
Hillary Clinton, I'll be honest, in small groups, she is amazing and she's great at connecting with folks. She has never been able to translate that to a large stage. Part of that is she is so micro- managed, so poll-tested, so what message is going to -- you know what, she has to figure out how to be herself.
(CROSSTALK)
BERMAN: Stop, stop. We have -- we need to stop right now. We will get live reports from the campaign trails. The candidates are starting to arrive in New Hampshire.
When we come back, we will talk to the reporter of the Marco Rubio campaign, because they say they have Marco-mentum. I've been dying to say that for the last half an hour right now. So, that's after the break.
First, let me warn you about this -- Wednesday night, that's tomorrow night. I lost track of which day it is.
ROMANS: It's one long day in New Hampshire. We left Iowa. The New Hampshire Democratic presidential town hall is tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. We are hosting that. Wednesday night at 8:00 p.m., only on CNN. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[04:45:14] BERMAN: All right. Breaking news: the Iowa Democratic Party says there is just one precinct left to count in Iowa. The party did not declare a winner. CNN has not declared a winner.
The Clinton campaign has looked at the math and they have declared victory. They say the numbers add up in their favor at this point. We will let you do the math. Write it down. Figure it out for yourself.
We're going to talk about the Republicans. There, it's much more clear. Ted Cruz won. The math is not complicated. He won. Donald Trump came in second. And Marco Rubio came in third.
Now, a lot of people are looking at results, looking at how close Marco Rubio came to Donald Trump and saying there is Marco-mentum. Just one point behind Donald Trump.
ROMANS: Joining us now on the phone is CNN's Manu Raju, who's covering the Rubio campaign. He's just arrived in New Hampshire.
Manu, you were with the Rubio campaign last night. You will be with the Rubio event this morning. When you look at those numbers, Marco Rubio at 23 percent behind Donald Trump. They must be elated in the Rubio camp this morning.
MANU RAJU, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL REPORTER (via telephone): Absolutely. They actually were not anticipating having results that high. You look at the polls last week and "The Des Moines register" poll from Saturday. Anything higher than 15 percent would be viewed as a victory for them and let alone to be nipping at the heels of Donald Trump and over 20 percent is a huge deal for them.
They're going to make the case pretty aggressively now that they are the one candidate that can poll conservatives and establishment voters, more moderate light leaning voters into their camp. This is the fight in New Hampshire shifts of who could be the alternative to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
Marco Rubio is the only one who could take them on. He is the only viable alternative and he has to worry about more moderates like Jeb Bush and Chris Christie and John Kasich who are aggressively fighting for that lane as well. If he does better than them, he will have a strong hand to play heading into South Carolina. If he does worse, that Marco-mentum that John was talking about may suddenly be zapped.
So, it's a big moment for him. We'll see if he can turn the table and he's going to spend more money here on TV because he is expecting a lot more attacks now he is considered one of the frontrunners.
ROMANS: Oh, yes, absolutely. The sands have shifted indeed.
All right. Thanks, Manu. We know you are ready to get to go to the Rubio event in New Hampshire.
Let's break the results, the winners and the losers and just the close Democratic race, too. CNN political commentators Tara Setmayer, Maria Cardona, Sally Kohn, Ben Ferguson.
Good morning, all.
I want to start with Marco Rubio here for a moment. I want to listen to something he said last night about waiting in line. Listen to him.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RUBIO: For months they told us because we did not have the right endorsements or the right political connections, we had no chance. They told me that we have no chance because my hair wasn't gray enough and my boots were too high. They told me I needed to wait my turn, that I needed to wait in line.
(END VIDEO CLIP) ROMANS: And here he is. He is third in line. Just behind, Tara, just behind Donald Trump.
(CROSSTALK)
ROMANS: That was a performance, I think, that was -- those were Iowa voters who wanted anybody but Trump who are conservative and establishment voters who did not go for Ted Cruz.
SETMAYER: That's correct. And something, a metric that we need to look at is, who broke for whom in the latter dates, right? Iowa is notorious for being fickle. And that voters there, they change their minds at the last minute, and that's what happened here and it benefited Marco Rubio.
We've seen the polling that showed that more people broke for Rubio and I think the fact that Trump didn't show up to that debate, the fact that he called people in Iowa stupid at one point. Even Ted Cruz used -- capitalized on those and the things that Donald Trump said in his attacks him. So, for the folks that didn't like Cruz, they broke for Rubio.
(CROSSTALK)
SETMAYER: Just let me finish one point. For Rubio, now he goes into New Hampshire, he is going to look for that money there. Now the expectation is higher for Rubio to perform well. He came out with this 3-2-1 strategy, third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire and first in South Carolina.
And with the endorsement of Senator Tim Scott, which was a highly coveted endorsement coming today, that also makes people look at Senator Rubio as a viable conservative candidate in South Carolina, which was not part of the discussion before.
[04:50:01] FERGUSON: And here's something else, Donald Trump, this is the first time he actually got to see what voters were going to do with him. And what they basically said was, we reject, a lot of them reject the arrogant and cocky campaign style that he had in the last week.
That hurt Donald Trump a lot. I think we're going to see at the end of this, because not showing up for this debate. And also just the way he likes to use the word nasty, that Ted Cruz is a nasty guy. He was really nasty in the last couple days. Calling Ted Cruz, you know, an anchor baby for Canada. That's a nasty political play.
Yes, he was more humble when he walked up on stage and maybe he's going to learn how to pivot on this, but the campaign style in each state is going to matter how he campaigns in New Hampshire, moving towards the SEC. If he keeps this up, I think it can continue to back fire on him. He may have to change his style, which will be very hard for Donald Trump to do.
BERMAN: That's a very interesting point.
ROMANS: "The New York Post" calling him "Cruzified".
BERMAN: On the issue of, you know, there again, if you decide in the last few days, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump finished third, people speculating that because Donald Trump skipped the debate. Another big issue was, who shares your values? Ted Cruz. Donald Trump nowhere in sight of that. They didn't he shared their values.
I guess, Maria, my question is, Donald Trump now, does he have to deal with Ted Cruz he has been fighting really hard in Iowa. Now, he's got to deal with Marco Rubio. Those two haven't clashed yet in this campaign.
So, I'm wondering, Maria, how will -- what will that look like?
CARDONA: Who, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio?
BERMAN: Donald Trump and Marco Rubio.
CARDONA: I think that Donald Trump will certainly try to throw everything that he has at Marco Rubio. I think Ted Cruz knows exactly what that feels like.
But I think Marco Rubio has a tremendous opportunity to really take advantage of the momentum that he has coming out of here. He has to take advantage it, because he looks at coming in second in New Hampshire and coming in first in South Carolina. If he doesn't do those two things exactly, I think he's done, because there is a path, but the path is narrow for him.
You have to win a state in order to be able to win the nomination. And right now, he is not leading in any state.
FERGUSON: And at 6:00, they were talking about him running the table.
(CROSSTALK)
FERGUSON: Trump was. Sorry. Trump talking about running the table. How do you overcome that especially if you're Rubio? Now, you use that to your advantage when you're going after voters. This is the guy that was going to win at all, and look what we did here? It's only going to help Rubio.
SETMAYER: This is a guy that is fond of the term loser. I mean, he calls everybody loser. He called Bush a loser. He called, you know, Lindsey Graham a loser. He calls everybody in government losers.
And today, Donald Trump --
(CROSSTALK)
SETMAYER: Today, Donald Trump is a loser.
CARDONA: But let's remember, he is still really -- he has a ton of lead in every single state after Iowa.
FERGUSON: I think momentum is everything. BERMAN: Sally, let me jump in.
KOHN: First of all, there are two things we need to pay attention. One is the damage that Trump has done to the Republican Party and the Republican brand.
The truth is and I know my conservative colleagues agree with me in not wanting to see Trump go any further than this, because everyone is constantly responding to the terms of debate that Donald Trump has set. It is portrayed this party as more xenophobic and harsh and hurt toward the American people than I think most Republicans would hope their party aspire to be, number one.
Number two, we should step back and notice what happened here more broadly, which is that if you asked anyone a year ago who would the nominees, strong nominee be at this point. You would say Bush and Clinton. The fact that is not the case is stunning.
I think the sort of rise of not the complete outsider candidates, but the outsider establishment candidate as Rubio is trying to be as arguably Sanders is, you know, is an interesting phenomena going forward.
BERMAN: I think it's the first thing all four of you agreed on tonight. So, we're going to end this discussion right here.
ROMANS: Donald Trump says he is honored to finish second. Others say, well, he is a loser for the first time in his life. We will talk to Sara Murray, who is with the campaign last night. We've got live report right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[04:57:30] ROMANS: Donald Trump, wow, trailing Ted Cruz by four points. You can see "The Daily News" this morning. "Dead Clown Walking, Loses Iowa to Cruz, Nearly Slips to Third". And then the cover of "The New York Post", "Cruz-ified" this morning about Donald Trump.
Sara Murray is covering the Trump campaign for us. She was with the Trump campaign last night. She joins us on the phone this morning.
Sara, give us the latest.
SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER (via telephone): Good morning, John and Christine.
You are talking about a campaign that went from yesterday saying if we went Iowa, we can run the table to these election results. They are acknowledging we're in a strong position heading into New Hampshire. But Rubio's surge means that now Donald Trump is not only going to have to fend off Ted Cruz when it comes to New Hampshire and South Carolina, he has to fend off Marco Rubio. So, his role got more difficult, not easier.
I think when you talk to politicians and other operatives, one thing they were impressed and surprised by is how disciplined Donald Trump was in his concession speech. He complimented Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee. He kept it short and moved on to New Hampshire.
I think the question is really, what Donald Trump does on the campaign trail today? He's gong to be in New Hampshire. He's going to be holding a campaign rally here. And I think we'll see if he comes out swinging against Marco Rubio or against Ted Cruz again. What the tenor of this is going to be for these few days between Iowa and New Hampshire.
One thing we know about Donald Trump, of course, he is very competitive. He likes to be a winner. I'm sure there is a lot of discussion within this campaign about the fact that they cannot lose two in a row.
BERMAN: Yes, the question is, can New Hampshire make Donald Trump the comeback kid? Is it even possible for Donald Trump to be a comeback kid? Is it possible for Donald Trump to be an underdog?
ROMANS: And I wonder if there is a change, Sara Murray, in strategy or tone by Donald Trump as we head into New Hampshire and the states beyond?
MURRAY: Well, I think that's going to be one of the things that they are thinking of and looking at. I think in the past, people have questioned Donald Trump's tone. The campaign is very careful to say, this is who he is, this is how he got to this place and we're going to let Trump be Trump.
Now, he has calibrated his tone on a couple occasions. We heard him talk more about when he is president, he will be a totally different person. He can be more politically correct and kinder. He can be kind, but right now, he's in a race where he is trying to knock these other guys out, and that involves a little bit of push (ph). Now we're seeing that may not played as well in Iowa as he was hoping it would, so may be he will soften his tone headed into New Hampshire.
