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Insight

Israel Critical Look at Lebanon

Aired August 14, 2006 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JONATHAN MANN, CNN HOST (voice-over): Prime minister wounded by war. Israelis debate whether their leaders bungled the conflict along the border.

EHUD OLMERT, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER (through translator): There was no other option. We had to go and fight. Otherwise, we would have found ourselves tackling even greater dangers and risks in the future.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MANN: Hello and welcome.

From the very start, Israelis told pollsters that they supported their government's decision to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon, and at the start they also supported the way their government chose to do it. Now after a month of fighting at a terrible cost, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has settled for much less than the goals he had originally set. Israelis know it, and his popularity has plummeted.

On our program today, Israel's critical look at Lebanon.

We begin with CNN's Paula Hancocks in Jerusalem.

Paula, he didn't get the kidnapped Israeli soldiers back and he didn't cripple Hezbollah, but he did go to the Knesset today. What did the prime minister have to tell his people?

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jonathan, this is really a very important speech for Ehud Olmert. Indeed, it was his first chance to really fight back against the critics, and there certainly have been many critics. He said that the key aims of the Israeli military had been met, that the fight against Hezbollah would continue, but we have seen public support for Ehud Olmert's conditions and what he has actually achieved in this war severely whittled down.

Now the public opinion was about 80 percent in support of him at the beginning of this month-long conflict. It's now down below 50 percent. He didn't stop the Hezbollah rockets, as he said he would. He didn't cripple Hezbollah, as he said he would, and the Israeli public know this.

But Ehud Olmert tried to fight back, saying he didn't try to delude anyone before this war; he warned the country it was going to be hard. He warned them there would be rockets from Hezbollah and it would be very difficult for the country and they would pay a dear price.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OLMERT (through translator): Soldiers of the IDF have struck a major blow at this murderous organization. The extent of this blow is not yet known, but in terms of its long-term capabilities, it's enormous arsenal of arms that it built up and stockpiled for many, many years, and also with regard to its self-confidence and self-confidence of its personnel and its leaders.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANCOCKS: He did say next time it would be done better, and he did say there would be a next time. This is what most of the Israeli public expects. They're not happy because they think that possibly this is just postponing the next attack against Hezbollah, the next war with Hezbollah has just been put off for another day.

We also heard from the leader of the opposition in the Israeli cabinet, Benjamin Netanyahu. He was not necessarily as critical as you would expect of the Israeli prime minister during the war itself. He was quite loyal in saying that this fight had to be fought, but he couldn't resist just a little dig at Ehud Olmert.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, LIKUD PARTY LEADER (through translator): There were many, many shortcomings in terms of identifying the threat, in terms of preparing to deal with this threat, in terms of running and conducting the war, in terms of dealing with the home front, and certainly without doubt we will subsequently have to draw lessons and set the shortcomings right.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANCOCKS: So, according to the critics, the military aims of this war have not been accomplished. It's now up to the diplomacy and Olmert said it is very important that this Resolution 1701 is good for Israel because it means there will not be a state within a state in Lebanon and that means Hezbollah will be out of southern Lebanon, or at least he hopes they will - - Jonathan.

MANN: Paula Hancocks, in Jerusalem, thanks very much.

If wars make or break political leaders, Mr. Olmert's counterpart in this conflict, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has only gained in strength and popularity. Monday he declared a strategic and historic victory.

Joining us now to talk about the power plays on the other side of the border is Anthony Mills.

Anthony, the Israeli government seems in discomfort if not in disarray. Hezbollah would seem the very opposite. What's going on with Hezbollah right now? What is the Lebanese government doing right now?

ANTHONY MILLS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jonathan, there really is a mood of what would appear to be celebration all around us. We're here in downtown Beirut and there are fireworks and indeed bursts of automatic gunfire, which explains why I'm wearing this flack jacket.

Now, this mood, these fireworks, loud cracks you may be able to hear them in the background, and automatic gunfire, come shortly after a speech -- a televised speech by the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in which he declared unequivocal victory.

Let's hear what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HASSAN NASRALLAH, HEZBOLLAH LEADER (through translator): We are spacing a strategic and historic victory, and this is not an exaggeration, for Lebanon, all of Lebanon, for the resistance, for the nation -- for the whole nation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MILLS: Jonathan, there the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, declaring victory, declaring victory for the whole of Lebanon, and literally as that speech wrapped up, as it went off the air, the capital here where we're standing erupted into gunfire, automatic gunfire, and fire crackers.

Now, the last time we'd heard this kind of gunfire was when there was news a number of weeks ago now that an Israeli gunboat had been hit off the coast of Beirut. That was the last time we had this kind of mood here. And then, of course, before that, when this whole thing, this whole conflict kicked off with the kidnapping over a month ago of those two Israeli soldiers, there was gunfire as well and fireworks in the southern suburbs.

But back to the politics. This has been taken by Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah chief, and his supporters, as an unequivocal victory. However, that doesn't mean, Jonathan, that he doesn't have his critics. They may not be expressing publicly their criticism, but there is criticism in certain quarters about the fact that Hezbollah unilaterally took action and initiated this conflict with the kidnapping of those two soldiers.

There is also we understand been disagreement behind the publicly unified face of the government about the implementation of this cease-fire agreement, the disagreement about the exact mechanisms, and, therefore, uncertainty, Jonathan, about whether or not the Lebanese army will in fact send its 15,000 troops down south, as promised, the issue being that the Lebanese army saying without full Hezbollah agreement, we're not going to do that -- Jonathan.

MANN: Anthony Mills, in Beirut, thanks very much.

The fallout has been felt not only in politics. Above all, it's been felt by people, by families, in homes across Lebanon and northern Israel.

Long before any multinational force could arrive, many Lebanese headed south to try to reclaim what's left of their lives. Ben Wedeman has their story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was a morning like so many other recent mornings in Tyre. And then there was silence. The cease-fire went into effect at 8:00 a.m. local time, and with the prospect of calm, it didn't take long for many of Lebanon's refugees, estimated at more than a million, to pack their belongings and head south toward home.

Beirut's Sania (ph) Park had become a temporary refuge, but Monday morning some decided it was time to go back, to what they weren't sure.

"We're returning to our village, but we don't know if we'll be able to get there or not," says this man from a village outside Tyre.

Last week Israel warned that its aircraft would target any cars on the road south of the Litani River. The warning remains in effect, but few seemed to heed it. Rather, they chose to savor the thought that Hezbollah had emerged from this war in their opinion victorious.

"The damage isn't important. What's important is that we won," says Abdel Abas (ph), who fled from Tyre. "And," he adds, "God protect Hassan Nasrallah," referring to Hezbollah's leader.

The 33-day conflict has left the Lebanese economy in ruins. Thousands of homes have been destroyed by Israeli land, sea and air bombardment. And over 1,000 Lebanese, mostly civilians, have been killed during the fighting. If this is a victory, it's a hollow one at best.

Ben Wedeman, CNN, Tyre, South Lebanon.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MANN: The silence of the cease-fire is a welcome change for some troops on the frontlines. Though there have been some skirmishes today between Israeli forces and Hezbollah, the truce has for the most part been honored. Hopes along the border, though, remain cautious.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I will be happy if this quiet will continue, but I'm not optimistic.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I want to be optimistic, but we have troops inside, they have their guns, out of sight, I don't know if it's safe like this.

MANN (voice-over): Worried civilians came out of their bunkers today in towns in northern Israel, some shops and restaurants opening for business, some traffic returning to the roads. But most people weren't hopeful that life would be back to normal any time soon.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I want to believe that, you know, but the last 30 years or something have told us that this is very predictable.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think it will take a while. It's probably not going to be immediate, but hopefully it will be effective.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MANN: People on both sides of the border now trying to rebuild their lives.

We have to take a break now, but when we come back, who are the winners and the losers of the war? Are there any? Can anyone claim victory in a conflict that may still have no real solution?

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MANN: Lebanon has been a costly place for Israeli politicians. After the 1982 invasion, the backlash from Israelis was a factor in the resignation of Prime Minister Menachem Begin and his defense minister, Ariel Sharon.

In 1996, then Prime Minister Shimon Peres launched a major offensive against Hezbollah. A month later, after calling off the operation, he was voted out of office.

In the year 2000, then Prime Minister Ehud Barak withdrew Israeli from Lebanon. Hezbollah declared victory and Israeli voters chose a different prime minister the following year.

Welcome back.

Each of those leaders could claim substantially more military experience than either Israel's current prime minister or its defense minister. And in Israel, people are already wondering how long Olmert and Peretz can last.

Joining us now to talk about that is David Makovsky, a senior fellow and director of the Washington Institute's project on the Middle East peace process.

Thanks for being with us.

How much trouble is Prime Minster Olmert in with his own people?

DAVID MAKOVSKY, WASHINGTON INSTITUTE: He's definitely in some hot water. I think it's too soon to write his political obituary.

Fierce attacks on him about whether he's proved to be an indecisive leader at a time of war and that he should have known that there is kind of a diplomatic clock, that at a certain point the United States and the cease-fire would kind of impose itself on Israel and by moving on the ground in a halting fashion, he seemed to be oblivious of those sorts of limitations and, therefore, this ended inconclusively.

To be fair to him, this is a different sort of an enemy that Israel is facing. It's more like what the United States is facing in Iraq and facing in Afghanistan and facing these insurgencies. The United States, we're a superpower here, but we have not had overriding success either.

I expect from Mr. Olmert, he's finishing one war, a second domestic war of the Jews could ensue inside Israel now.

MANN: What about the defense minister?

MAKOVSKY: I personally believe he's more vulnerable than Olmert is because in this case, you know, the Israelis have a tradition of expecting of their defense ministers to have a background in national security.

Many times they've been generals, but even those times they haven't been generals, and I could give examples, they've been people who have been involved in national security.

He has not been, and I think that people are going to wonder and say maybe he should have been the finance minister or have another ministerial portfolio, and I kind of believe there is going to be some pressure on Olmert to do a cabinet reshuffle, either to bring back Shaul Mofaz, the former defense minister, who I noted abstained in yesterday's vote on the cease-fire, or even go outside the cabinet, go to someone like Ehud Barak, who he's very friendly with.

I saw Ehud Barak on CNN with Wolf Blitzer yesterday heaping a lot of praise on Mr. Olmert, who is a former chief of staff. I think the Israeli public was hoping this fall that they're kind of beyond combat and they can look to a very kind of proper situation where there is complete civilian oversight. I think this war has kind of reminded people that the Middle East is a rough neighborhood and they're going to want someone with a defense portfolio who has that national security background.

MANN: It's not just politicians who are now doing some of the fighting. It would seem at least from a distance, reading the Israeli press, that the military and the politicians are sharing blame, sharing recriminations for what went wrong. The current chief of staff suggesting that the politicians were very late to call for the kind of planning and kind of ground invasion that might have succeeded. Some of the politicians saying that the military was late in providing the kind of plan that might have succeeded.

MAKOVSKY: OK, here is where it gets to be a difficult kind of minuet. Probably Israel, the Israeli public expects that the prime minister will back up the military brass. As you know, the military in Israel tends to be a rather sacrosanct citizen's army. It's above the fray. Although they've had their problems and scandals, for the most part they rank much higher in the ratings than politicians.

Politicians do not like to take them on frontally, and if you've noticed in the Knesset speech today of Olmert, he praised Dan Halutz, the chief of staff. There has been public criticism of Halutz, saying that.

MANN: You're talking about the Israeli chief of staff, Dan Halutz.

MAKOVSKY: The Israeli chief of staff. Now, he's the first one in Israel's history from the air force and he led an air campaign, so there's been criticism.

I tend to believe that it will be done in a more subtle, some might say more deceptive, manner. That you will see politicians backgrounding journalists against the army but not saying it frontally. Certainly Olmert won't say it frontally. But others will also be backgrounding, saying, look, the problem here was that this didn't start when Olmert became prime minister of Israel. The 12,000 rockets that Hezbollah imported happened over the last several years, most of the time when Ariel Sharon was the prime minister.

He had his hands full, however, with an intifada with the Palestinian violence and terror, if you remember, bombs going off in Israeli cities virtually every day, and he spoke about it more diplomatically. I think every speech I heard Sharon give, he talked about it.

But as the person who was burned by Lebanon in 1982, he didn't go back in. So there might be a lot of recriminations to go around. I assume we have not heard the end of it, we're just at the beginning.

MANN: David Makovsky, thanks so much for talking to us.

MAKOVSKY: Good to be with you, Jonathan.

MANN: We take another break. When we come back, a look at the larger political problem: can the United Nations, the Lebanese and the Israelis find a way to make the cease-fire succeed?

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MANN: Clear resolutions, but how much resolve? Two years ago, the U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution calling for Hezbollah to be disarmed, but it was never enforced. Now peace may depend on another Security Council resolution and whether it will prove more successful.

Welcome back.

The resolution authorizes a new international force to help the Lebanese army clear weapons in armed groups from southern Lebanon. But it doesn't authorize the outsiders to help the outsiders to disarm or dismantle Hezbollah. Nor does it for that matter force Israel to withdraw entirely from Lebanon by any specific deadline.

Are Lebanon and Israel any further head?

Joining us now to talk about that is author and analyst Mark Perry, who chairs as co-director of Conflicts Forum, an organization that aims to improve dialogue between Islam and the West.

Thanks so much for being with us.

First, it was 1559 two years ago. Now it's 1701. Are the conditions, is the diplomacy, in a position to really change the facts on the ground and move that border towards peace?

MARK PERRY, CONFLICT FORUM: Well, if it was impossible for Israel to defeat, destroy or disarm Hezbollah, I think it will be even more difficult for any United Nations force, and I don't think we should expect it.

Frankly, I think the use of the word disarm is unfortunate in this context. There are conditions under which Hezbollah would be folded into a much more robust and substantive Lebanese army, as happened with the IRA and Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland, what is called demilitarization and decommissioning of arms.

I think that that's very possible, and if the international community decides to go in that direction, they'll have some success. But I think disarmament, as called for in this resolution, is probably out of the question.

MANN: Some people have in fact seen what you've just suggested as a way to square the circle. In fact, a way to get Hezbollah to disappear as far as the Israelis are concerned is to fold it into the Lebanese army. The question I put to you is, does that really just fold the Lebanese army into Hezbollah? Does a national army that is so heavily Shia influenced, joined with Hezbollah, which is now so influential, even more powerful than it was before this month of conflict, does that army just become Hezbollah's larger army, only nominally at the service of the Lebanese people?

PERRY: That's quite an insight, actually. I think that that is what would happen. There would be a change in uniform, there would be a change in the officer corps. There would be more Shias in the officer corps, but the Lebanese army would become a robust militia and military, and it would reflect the demographics of the situation in Lebanon.

That is, probably a Shia dominated Lebanese army. But I think that that is something that we should be willing to accept. Hezbollah is not going to disappear simply because we have a United Nations resolution or the president of the United States calls them an international terrorist organization. We're going to have to do very difficult diplomacy here, and we're going to have to understand that whether we like Hezbollah or not, they're part of the Lebanese political environment, and we need to reflect that in our hopes for the future.

MANN: So, what good does it do to send 15,000 men and women into Lebanon from countries around the world? What good does it do to deploy the Lebanese army itself to join up with those 15,000 if really this remains a political problem and Hezbollah is going to do what it wants?

PERRY: Well, neither of those things have happened yet, and we have yet to determine whether there is going to be an international force or whether the Lebanese army is going to go to the south.

I think that the purpose of this resolution, though, has been served quite adequately. We now have quite along the border, and if we have that quiet for an extended period of time, then we can do the diplomacy that is necessary.

The one thing I would like to mention is that the other loser in this conflict is the United States. We have lost our diplomatic power in the region. Our goals and policies there have unraveled significantly. We're seen as partisans of Israel. This can't help our diplomatic position, and we're the ones that are going to have to deliver on the U.N. resolution, whether or troops are on the ground anyway. And that's bad news, and eventually pessimistic for any kind of implementation of 1701.

MANN: Now, what you're saying is just within days of the adoption of this resolution, essentially it may be a dead letter. We may see a situation where it has no practical impact and where the forces named don't even assemble to try to pretend that they're taking part.

PERRY: I wouldn't say it's quite a dead letter yet. Instead, I think that we're going to have to see over the next 72 hours whether diplomats are willing to engage with the Lebanese government and with the Israeli government and whether there is any give here.

If everyone just walks out of the United Nations and says, well, that's done, now we can go on to the next crisis, this will be a dead letter and we will have another war.

But if Condy Rice, if the French, if NATO, if the United Nations, if Israel and the Lebanese, if Hezbollah are willing to really do the tough work of diplomacy, which is a lot harder than conducting a war, than I think 1701 can work, but we're going to have to drop the rhetoric of disarmament and international terrorism to make it work.

MANN: Mark Perry, of Conflicts Forum, thanks so much for talking with us.

PERRY: My pleasure.

MANN: One last thing before we go. Even just a few months ago, Ehud Olmert did not seem destined for the prime minister's office. The man who held that job, Ariel Sharon, suffered a massive stroke in January and fell into a coma and Mr. Olmert was thrusts into the leadership of Sharon's Kadima Party.

Monday, hospital officials said Sharon's condition took yet another turn for the worse with deteriorating brain function and a new infection in his lungs. Ariel Sharon is clinging to life at age 78.

That's INSIGHT. I'm Jonathan Mann.

END

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