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Official: 'Increasingly Confident' Debris is from MH-370; U.S. Intel: MH-370 Deliberately Steered Off-Course; Former Cincinnati Officer Free on Bond; Pataki Previews First GOP Debate. Aired 7-7:30a ET

Aired July 31, 2015 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

NIMA ELBAGIR, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: This wreckage discovered almost a year and a half after MH-370 disappeared, located more than 2,300 nautical miles away from the current search zone off Australia's west coast.

[07:00:18] WARREN TRUSS, AUSTRALIAN DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER: The fact that this wreckage was sighted on the northern part of the Reunion Island is consistent with the current -- the current movements.

ELBAGIR: As investigators in France await the arrival of the debris, a U.S. intelligence assessment suggests someone in MH-370's cockpit may deliberately have set the plane off course.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ELBAGIR: It's all about now, of course, answering the family's questions as quickly as possible. The debris will leave Wahobi (ph) Island this evening. It's expected in France tomorrow morning, will be taken to Balma near Toulouse.

We spoke -- CNN spoke to the lab that's going to be involved in this. And they tell us that they also worked on the 2009 Rio Paris crash. And they feel that they have the equipment needed to really try and finally get some answers here -- Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: And Nima, before we let you go, just help us understand how this part was found. Was it on the beach or in the water?

ELBAGIR: It had washed up on the beach, and it was actually the beach clean-up crews who found it. The crew dragged it across the pebbles and the pebbles had begun scraping much of that crucial evidence: the barnacles, the sea life that was clinging to it, off it, before one of the crew realized what it was and he told us, it just suddenly came to him. He realized, "You know what? This is a plane. And if it's a plane, then it must have been part of a crash, and people died here."

So he was really instrumental in making sure that the evidence, what remains of it, is still intact. And he is down there, on this beach today, searching again -- Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: Wow. Remarkable presence of mind. Nima, thanks so much for all that back story. So interesting. Well, that wing part that washed ashore, it does head to France today

for analysis, as Nima just said. CNN senior international correspondent Fred Pleitgen is live in Toulouse, France, with more. Where do they start, Fred?

FRED PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, first of all, they start on Reunion Island. As Nima just said, it's an 11-hour flight from there to Paris, where the part is going to be headed initially. We expect it to arrive there sometime on Saturday here, European time. And then after that, it heads from Paris down here to the south of France to the town of Toulouse. Probably Saturday night or sometime Sunday morning.

Now it's going to come here to the lab of an organization called DGA. It's part of the French defense ministry, and it is, indeed, an organization, a lab that has a lot of experience dealing with things like this. It is the premier institute to look at parts when there have been accidents with airplanes.

And one of the things that the scientists here are saying is they're going to be doing several things. Obviously, they're going to look at the outside of the flaperon. They're going to be looking at numbers. They're going to see how those correspond to potential numbers of MH- 370 to try and determine whether or not this is part of a 777 and whether or not this is part of MH-370. And then they are going to go to analyzing the metal of that piece of debris that was found. They're going to see whether or not, again, it is part of that plane but also how long it was potentially in the water, how long was it potentially on the beach and from where it might have traveled.

And one of the other interesting things they're able to apparently do here, is they want to try and discern, if they can, from this part whether or not it fell off because of some midair explosion or whether or not it was upon impact with the water surface. So analysis are going to take a little bit of time. We expect it to happen at some point next week. But there hasn't been a time given yet.

The other thing that we don't know is whether or not they're going to be giving updates along the way or whether there's going to be a large report at the end of the analysis. One other interesting factor, though, that suitcase that was found is going to be brought to France, as well, and will be analyzed outside of Paris -- John.

BERMAN: That is interesting. All right, Fred. Thanks so much.

U.S. intelligence remains focused on the cockpit, sticking by the theory that the plane was deliberately taken off course before it vanished from radar. It's provocative. CNN's Rene Marsh live in Washington with the details -- Rene.

RENE MARSH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, this morning, sources tell CNN's Evan Perez an assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies says someone in the cockpit of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 deliberately directed the aircraft movements before it disappeared.

Now, this assessment is based on satellite and other available evidence. We know an analyst looked at the multiple course changes the aircraft made after it deviated from its scheduled course from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

Now, the analysts determined that the flight path was the result, most likely, of someone in the cockpit deliberately programming the aircraft to fly toward specific way points crossing Indonesian territory and eventually going towards the South Indian Ocean.

Now, this was an assessment done for internal U.S. government purposes. And it is totally separate from the investigation being led by Malaysian authorities.

[07:05:08] It is worth noting, Malaysian investigators found no proof of wrongdoing by the airplane's crew. However, the recent discovery of the debris, it really gives investigators hope that perhaps now they can find wreckage and, more crucially, the black boxes. Intelligence sources go on to tell Evan Perez, without that, they likely would not be able to make a definitive conclusion about exactly what happened to MH-370.

PEREIRA: Yes, and they're hoping that that definitive conclusion can come within the next 24 or so hours.

Rene, thank you for that.

Meanwhile, for the families of the 239 people aboard Flight 370, the wait for answers is agonizing. A group of Chinese families are banding together, saying they will not accept anything but 100 percent certainty that the piece of wing is from MH-370.

CNN's Will Ripley live with that part of the story for us -- Will.

WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Michaela, we're talking to the families, who are starting to feel more comfortable to speak openly after a lot of them released statements yesterday. And from some of them, who we met with today, while they all have different emotions in how they're handling this, their body language is the same. They just look -- they look defeated. They look like they've been weighed down. It's really quite -- quite an ordeal that most people could never imagine what it's like going. It's more than 500 days, not knowing what has happened to the people you love.

But we do have one interesting quote I want to read to you from Myra Elizabeth Nari. She's the daughter of Andrew Nari, the chief steward of MH-370.

And she said, quote, "A part of us wants this to be true, but another part of us does not want it to be true. We still do hope that one day they'll come back. But if they're not, then it's OK."

But there are other family members who remain very skeptical of any information that they're getting from the Malaysian government or even from their own government, because they feel like all they've been fed so far is misinformation. They say even if this debris is confirmed to be from MH-370, they want to know where the plane is, where the remains are, where the proof is that their loved ones are not actually alive.

So you're 16 months in, people still not willing to accept that this plane has been lost. Still wondering if there will be a day that they'll be reunited with their loved ones, Alisyn.

BERMAN: It's so hard for the families. Will, I'll take it. Thanks so much. Will Ripley in Beijing.

Let's break all down the latest information right now with David Soucie. He's a CNN aviation analyst, former aviation accident investigator; and Phil Mudd, a CNN counterterrorism analyst and former CIA counterterrorism official.

Phil, let me start with you. You lurk in the shadowy world of intelligence. When you hear intelligence officials telling CNN that it is their assessment that this plane was deliberately flown off course, what does that say to you?

PHIL MUDD, CNN COUNTERTERRORISM ANALYST: Boy, I'd be concerned about taking this assessment as evidence or information that's solid. A couple of clues here first. They use a word that's a term of art in the intelligence business. That word is likely. It's likely in their judgment that the plane was purposely moved off course. All that means is that they judge. There's a greater than 50 percent chance that that's what happened. I wouldn't go to Vegas with that.

All they're saying is, if we look at this information we have -- it's not evidence; it's information -- we judge that this is what's happened.

One more thing, John. In 25 years of this business, I learned one lesson. Be careful about the distinction between what you think and what you know. People who are not experts in aircraft, that is the intelligence guys, think it was purposely turned off course. That is not what they know. That's not a fact.

BERMAN: And as far as you know, this is not coming from aviation guys. This is coming from intel guys, right, Phil?

MUDD: And that's why if you're in the leadership of the intelligence community today, you've got your head in the sand. Because you have an internal document where I'm guessing somebody said we spent a lot of time trying to determine if this was a terrorist event.

I think the intel guys say it does not appear to have been a terrorist event. So somebody says, "Well, then what's your best judgement about what happened?" Intel guys are not specialists on the Iranian nuclear program on Russian missiles, on the Chinese economy. They are not specialists on what happens to airplanes in cockpits. So I don't blame the intelligence committee for doing the assessment, but let's be careful about what we got here.

BERMAN: All right, David. You are an aviation guy. So when you see this report, what do you think? Because there were a lot of mysterious things that have never been explained. Why certain electronic systems on this plane went off or were shut off when they were.

DAVID SOUCIE, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Well, I want to thank Phil for that -- for that assessment, because that's what I've been fighting for the last two days on this report.

It doesn't tell you why it was turned. It doesn't even tell you that it 100 percent was intentionally changed, but it does tell you that something happened. And that's where we need to put this and keep it framed.

But it was -- I do believe that it was turned off course, and it was turned off course for a very specific reason. The heading that it took after the very first turn was right back towards the maintenance base for this aircraft. So if there's a major mechanical failure, they are not going to continue the flight. They're going to divert the flight and get to where they can get the aircraft fixed in the safest, in the quickest manner. And that would be to the Penang maintenance base, where something could be done about what was going on, on that aircraft.

[07:10:11] BERMAN: So it could have been very deliberate and for a very good reason.

SOUCIE: Thank you. That's exactly right. But we can speculate aviation perspective as to why he may have done that.

BERMAN: And Phil, 500 plus days after the fact, if this had been done deliberately for some cause or by some person with some right, wouldn't we have heard by now?

MUDD: I think we would have for a couple of reasons. The first is, in the digital age with those passengers, all that cockpit crew, all their personal digital trail. That is Facebook, Twitter, interviews, what they told family, friends, co-workers. Combining that with the fact that there's not a claim.

If you commit an act of terrorism, typically, you're trying to influence someone; you're trying to intimidate someone. We have neither a single shred that suggests that somebody had political intent on the plane. Nor do we have a claim afterwards. This, after 500 days, if it turns out to be that someone did have some political intent; it was terrorism, I would be stunned. I don't think the world works that way.

BERMAN: Not a shred. That is true.

David Soucie, let's talk the suitcase. Because by this flaperon that was found on Reunion Island was also discovered a suitcase. That is on its way to France today, as well, to be looked at by investigators. We don't know if it will turn out to be anything, but what could a suitcase tell you?

SOUCIE: Well, typically, you find that type of -- look at the size difference. Look at the buoyancy difference. Look how different those two pieces of evidence are. And to think they both traveled 2,600 miles with completely different characteristics, both from the flow, both from the projection out of the water, for how the wind would affect it, I find it really difficult to believe -- and the probabilities are extremely low -- that that suitcase is actually from the same aircraft.

BERMAN: But there is going to be -- look, if this flaperon was from 370, there's more debris that was floating on the ocean. There's more debris that will turn up in some places. And very likely on Reunion Island or nearby. Do they need to start putting planes in the air or do they need to start scouring the coastline on Reunion, on Madagascar, on East Africa to check?

SOUCIE: Well, some reports are saying that they did have helicopters out there looking for debris. But that hasn't been substantiated yet. I'm not sure that they are.

But here's the thing, to look at it. Why did that piece come off of the airplane? There's a couple of different scenarios to that. The one that I most thinking happened is that that piece came off of the airplane as it was in a steep transonic mode.

A transonic mode is something that would tear pieces off of the airplane, because you're literally talking about the speed of sound at this point, Mach One, of air flow. The airplane's not going that fast, but the flow over the airplane is. And that causes incredible, incredible disturbances in the air that can just literally rip pieces off the airplane.

And looking at this damage to this particular part, with the broken up trailing edge and the fact that there's no other substantial damage in the front of this part tells me that that's exactly how it came off, which would have put it in miles.

BERMAN: Right.

SOUCIE: Could be miles from where the actually aircraft hit the water.

BERMAN: Well, the answers to that, I think, are still at the bottom of the Indian Ocean where they're searching right now, 2,300 miles away from where they found this piece of debris.

Phil Mudd, David Soucie, great to have your analysis this morning. Thank you.

We're going to have much more on the continuing coverage of this story throughout the morning. We do have a quick programming note. Be sure to tune in tonight for a "CNN Special Report," "Vanished: The Mystery of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370." That's at 9 p.m. Eastern right here on CNN -- Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: Well, the Taliban naming a new leader to succeed Mullah Omar, who the military group now confirms did died in 2013. According to the U.N., the successor, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, was an active recruiter in the Taliban's fight against the government.

This, as a new round of peace talks between the Taliban and Afghanistan, slated to begin today were postponed.

PEREIRA: Former University of Cincinnati police officer Ray Tensing is now out of jail on bond. He pleaded not guilty to murder and involuntary manslaughter in the death of Samuel DuBose. CNN's Jean Casarez is live in Cincinnati with the latest for us -- Jean.

JEAN CASAREZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know, Michaela, that bond was $1 million, but it was $100,000 cash that got him out. He got out about 6 p.m. last night. Actually, physically out at 6:30.

He had been on suicide watch. He's young. He's 25, not married, no children. His attorney told me that he lives with his father. So we do believe that that is back where he is today.

But the day started, yesterday, right behind me in this courthouse with the arraignment where Raymond Tensing pleaded not guilty.

But I think what I will remember from this arraignment was that it was a packed courtroom, wall-to-wall people standing, and then suddenly, it's realized the family isn't here. The family of Sam DuBose. They were in the hallway. And there aren't any seats for them. And so court administration officials asked anyone to give up their seats. People readily stood up for the family to come in and watch that proceeding, which was so important to them.

[07:15:05] Now, we know what the prosecutor has said that the whole reason that these charges were filed is because of that body cam video. The video we have watched over and over again and a jury will watch over and over again.

The defense is saying that the police officer put his hand in the car. And I asked him yesterday, why did Mr. Tensing put his hand in the car? He said because Sam DuBose put the keys in the ignition, started the car, put it in gear, and the young officer decided he was going to try to take the keys out of the of the ignition. And so, his hand got tangled.

And then there's the aspect of the dragging. Because we don't see that in the video. The defense attorney told me that as you look at that video when he's making the traffic stop, you look farther down, it looks like an oil stain in the middle of the roadway. And that there's a five-second piece of video from one of the other officers' body cam that shows him down on the ground at that point. Thus, he was dragged. Listen to it in the defense attorney's own words.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

STEWART MATTHEWS, RAY TENSING'S ATTORNEY: It clearly shows Officer Tensing laying in the street some distance from where Mr. DuBose's car was initially stopped. He didn't crawl up there. He didn't walk up there and fall down. Somehow he got up there. He says he was dragged.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CASAREZ: I spoke to Sam DuBose's sister yesterday outside of court. You saw the pain in her eyes, what this family is having to go through.

They say that they are strong. They are together. They believe in God. They render no hatred toward this defendant. And they said it's very hard to watch this video of their brother and their son being shot, but they're getting used to it and they know they have to maintain that strength -- John.

BERMAN: All right, Jean, thanks so much. And that video is hard to see.

We do have a truly awful story out of Montana. A family gunned down on an Indian reservation while trying to be good Samaritans. Police say Jason and Tana Shane and their daughter tried to help 18-year-old Jesus Mendoza, who was stranded on the side of a road.

But the FBI says Mendoza pulled a gun on them and demanded money. When he was told they didn't have any money, he allegedly ordered the family to turn around and start walking, and then he began firing, killing the couple and wounding their daughter.

CAMEROTA: That is heartbreaking. What an awful story.

All right. On to politics. The first GOP debate happens next week. Lone of the contenders, former New York governor George Pataki, will join us live to explain how he thinks the debate will go.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:21:11] CAMEROTA: The first Republican debate less than a week away. And the GOP presidential hopefuls jockeying to break into the top ten.

BERMAN: In fact, it's not just the first debate. It's the first two debates. Two debates will be held on the same day. Former New York Governor George Pataki is one of the people who will be in the first of those debates.

Governor Pataki, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it.

GEORGE PATAKI (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Good being with you, John.

BERMAN: I'm not telling you anything you don't know. Let's put up the poll right now of where everyone stands, the poll of polls, in the race. And you are not, as it stands, among the top ten, which means you will not be in the prime-time debate one week from yesterday, but you'll be in the sort of the pregame debate. What do you hope to accomplish?

PATAKI: Well, I think what everybody else is hoping to accomplish. Just to let the people have some idea of who you are, what your background is and what you've been able to achieve.

And when I look at myself and the rest of the field, it's a great field. But none of them have my background. And I'm the New York guy. And people have this image of New Yorkers. But I grew up on a farm and still have a farm. I'm the guy who went to Yale, but I worked in a factory and know what it's like to Friday afternoon worry about getting a lay-off slip. And I have a record as a conservative governor in the deepest blue state in America. That's something no one else has done.

BERMAN: You went out then to say you can win if people pay attention to you.

PATAKI: Absolutely.

BERMAN: Don't you need to get people to pay attention to you?

PATAKI: Absolutely right. But don't forget, this is July, still, of 2015.

BERMAN: Barely.

PATAKI: And if you look at or August even of 2015. If you look at history, the summer of the year before does not predict who the nominee is going to be. I've been out of politics for eight years. I think it's a plus in a lot of sense. But in another way, people don't remember me. So I have to get out there and make a case, and that's what I'm doing.

CAMEROTA: I know it really annoys the rest of the GOP field when we ask questions about Donald Trump. But I'm going to this morning, because you know, he has 20 percent in one of the most recent polls. And if he weren't in the race, that would be divided up amongst the rest of you.

So how do you think that he's going to fare in this first debate? Do you think that he'll be sort of emboldened and more popular afterwards, or will he be vulnerable?

PATAKI: Alisyn, I honestly have no idea. But I think it's perfectly fair to bring his name up, because he is in first place.

And on the one hand, he has tapped into a very strong anti-Washington sentiment. But I'm fair. I have that same attitude, that we can't trust Washington, and we have to gain control back for the people and not the interest groups who dominate Washington far too much.

But on the other hand, when you go out and demonize an entire class of people, like he did with Mexicans, in my view, that disqualifies you from leading this country.

We don't need someone who's going to divide us. We've had that with Barack Obama, in my view. And that's what Hillary Clinton is going to run on. Republicans are anti-woman. We're anti-blacks. We're anti- the middle class. I'm going to bring Americans together. When we stand together, there's nothing we cannot do that. I saw that in New York state. I know we can do it in America.

BERMAN: Are you going to watch the prime-time debate? And if you bump into Donald Trump in the hallway beforehand, what will you say to him? PATAKI: I'll just say "Hi." That's all. And as I will with all the

candidates. And you know, there are going to be 16 of us out there. I'm sure we'll be rubbing shoulders.

But John, actually, before that, Monday is just Monday. In New Hampshire, there's going to be a forum with 15 of us, 16 of us. We'll all be sitting there together. And I'm looking forward to that, saying hi to the others involved in the race, and letting people know my record, my background and my vision for America.

CAMEROTA: Let's talk about an issue that has cropped up in Congress this week, as it does perennially, and that is funding of Planned Parenthood. Because of these controversial undercover videos that have been revealed that, of course, they're disturbing to watch, some Republicans in Congress have decided that they want to try to sponsor legislation to defund the $520 million that is given to Planned Parenthood. Where do you stand on that?

PATAKI: I saw those videos, and disturbing is too kind a word. "Horrific" is the answer that I -- the word that I would use.

CAMEROTA: But illegal? I mean, do you believe that Planned Parenthood is doing something illegal?

PATAKI: I think they're doing something with callous disregard for humanity and people's sensibilities. And I think that is horrible.

[07:25:14] And I don't think they should be funded by the federal government. I think we should take those funds and provide them women's healthcare services through different organizations.

I'm the only candidate out there who says let's not try to repeal Roe v. Wade.

CAMEROTA: You're pro-choice.

PATAKI: On my side. I don't think we should try to repeal Roe v. Wade. But I also don't think the federal government should be having tax dollars going to organizations that perform abortions. I don't think that's right. Leave it to the people.

CAMEROTA: I mean, of course, the argument that Planned Parenthood would make is if you defund them, then you also deprive women who want birth control and there will be more unwanted pregnancies.

PATAKI: There are alternative systems. And you shouldn't take those funds away from women's healthcare for things like birth control. But I think Planned Parenthood, after those horrific videos, should not be funded with federal tax dollars.

BERMAN: Will women have enough options right now. They are losing options in some states. They're taking away many of the clinics that they've had in place for years and years to go perform abortions.

PATAKI: I think that's states' prerogatives. I'm not in favor of overturning Roe v. Wade, but consistent with that law is states should have the ability to set the policies that the people, the elected representatives in those states choose.

CAMEROTA: Do you think this is a winning topic for Republicans? If this bubbles up during the presidential race, as it appears that it will, do you think that this is one of the issues that Republicans can make some ground on or they should avoid?

PATAKI: You know, Alisyn, I think this gets back to what I was saying earlier. Is that Hillary Clinton, I don't think has a vision for America. So her whole campaign is Republicans are anti-women, we're anti-immigrant, we're anti-blacks, we're anti-middle class. And I don't think we should fall into that trap.

She can't do that with me. I governed in the most liberal state in America, three million more Republicans, a very high minority population. And I was able to bring people together behind a conservative agenda that empowered the private sector grow. And that made us the safest, largest state in America.

So -- so whether or not others feel that's the issue to talk about, what I want to do is convince the American people we're one America; we have a common future, a common destiny. I can leave that future well. And that's what I'm looking at.

BERMAN: Yes or no, do you think the Republicans in Congress should be willing to shut down the government to defund Planned Parenthood?

PATAKI: I don't think the Republicans look to shut down government at all. I think you should try to put together coalitions. And a lot of times, that requires getting Democrats to work with Republicans.

Obama hasn't done this; he hasn't even tried. I fear too often the Republicans haven't tried. I had to do that in New York. I had a state assembly that was more than 2-1 Democratic, and yet, I was able to bring together a coalition to change our government in a conservative direction. That's what you have to do, not shut it down. Build bipartisan coalition.

CAMEROTA: Governor Pataki, great to have you on NEW DAY. We'll be watching next week.

PATAKI: Always good to be with you, Alisyn.

Good to see you, John.

CAMEROTA: A programming note: in our next hour, we will talk to David Daleiden. He is the leader of the anti-abortion group that is fueling the Planned Parenthood firestorm because of his undercover videos -- Michaela.

PEREIRA: Back to our top story, Alisyn. Increasing confidence that the plane debris found on an island near Madagascar is from Flight 370. How are the families of the passengers on board coping with all of these developments? We'll speak with a man whose wife was on that doomed flight.

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