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New Poll: Clinton Dips Below 50% for First Time; Another Democrat Opposes Iran Nuclear Deal; Jared Fogle to Plead Guilty in Child Porn Case; Can Tortoise Strategy Win for Bush? Aired 7-7:30a ET

Aired August 19, 2015 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Questions about her e-mail use and her trust worthiness having an impact on her presidential ambitions.

[07:00:05] CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: Now, Clinton's Republican rival, Donald Trump, is posing serious threat statistically. The new numbers showing the Donald in striking range of Clinton. Is her bid for the White House in trouble? How much of a fight does she have on her hands and why?

CNN senior Washington correspondent Jeff Zeleny live in Washington, breaking it down for us.

Jeff, what do you see in these numbers?

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Chris.

For weeks now, Democrats have been smiling as Donald Trump has surged. But our new poll shows a new reason for Democrats to take Trump's candidacy a bit more seriously. Let's take a look at these numbers.

Clinton is now leading Donald Trump by six points. This is a dramatic tightening since July, when there was a 16-point gap, and June, when the spread was 24 points.

The reason is this: His standing has increased among Republicans, Republican-leaning independents and white voters.

Now on to Jeb Bush. She leads him by nine points in a theoretical head-to-head match-up.

Let's move to Democrats, though. Clinton is still driving the race, important to keep in mind. She's leading Bernie Sanders by 18 points. But there's a reverse of fortunes for Clinton and Sanders. Since July, Clinton has fallen nine points. Sanders has climbed 10 points. So the Sanders surge is real, climbing from 19 points in July to 29 points now.

Now, the idea of Vice President Joe Biden jumping into the presidential campaign is a good one in the minds of a majority Democrats. Take a look at these numbers. Fifty-three percent of Democrats say Biden should launch a presidential candidacy; 45 percent say no. Even Clinton supporters say they want Biden in, a sign they're hungry for a competitive race. Now, all this comes as positive impressions of Clinton continue to

fade. Our new poll shows 44 percent have a favorable view of her. Fifty-three have an unfavorable one. This is reversed since she announced her candidacy back in March.

Of course, one of the reasons: all these questions about her private email server. Fifty-six percent say she was wrong to use personal e- mail as secretary of state. Thirty-nine percent say she was not.

Now, this was a topic of a very heated exchange with reporters in Nevada yesterday after she had a town-hall meeting with voters. Let's take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My personal e-mails are my personal business, right? That's all I can say.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But did you try to wipe the whole server? Do you think that's the question?

CLINTON: I'm -- I have no idea. That's why we turned it over. We...

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You were in charge of it. You were the official in charge. Did you wipe the server?

CLINTON: What, like with a cloth or something?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't know. You know how it works, digitally. Did you try to wipe the whole server?

CLINTON: I don't know how it works digitally at all.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: So a bit of a human moment there from Secretary Clinton, saying she wiped the cloth digitally. But real questions about this. And the FBI and the Department of Justice will actually answer these questions. They are looking at that private e-mail server right now.

So the big take away from this, via a new poll, Chris and Alisyn, is she's driving the race, no question. But still so many people wondering about this e-mail server. And Donald Trump, of course, now head-to-head, almost tied with her, six points back from her. So very, very interesting findings this morning.

CAMEROTA: OK, Jeff, so much to talk about. Thanks for teeing it up for us.

Joining us now for more context is "TIME" political reporter, Zeke Miller; and CNN political commentator and political anchor at New York One, Errol Louis. Gentlemen, thanks so much for being here.

How do you interpret that tone that Hillary Clinton used with the reporter about her server? Was that flippancy or was she -- is she clueless that you can wipe a server clean of its information, not using a cloth?

ERROL LOUIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Wow. Clearly wanting to change the subject. I think there was maybe a little bit of sort of a political gloss on it, acting like, "Oh, gee, I don't know." But the reality is I think most people who heard that -- and I put myself in this category -- don't really know what you can and can't do. What stuff is retrievable; what stuff is not retrievable.

CAMEROTA: It's not that she's not taking it seriously, in other words?

LOUIS: Well, no. I mean, look, she and her camp both know. I mean, they can read the polls just like the polls that we've been talking about. They know that they have an issue. They know that issue's not going to go away.

They also know, however, something that the opponents, I think, are going to go crazy over, which is that people get distracted. There's a lot of other stuff going on out there. There's climate change. There's sex scandals. There's all kind of things that are going to sort of move this off the main agenda. I think that's partly why the questioning has been so aggressive. Give us an answer; give us an answer.

CUOMO: Well...

LOUIS: Because they know five minutes from now, no one's going to care what the answer is.

CUOMO: Welcome to politics. Scandal sells. You know this very, very well. You're one of the masters of arbitering, you know, when people stay on point and don't on your show, from New York One.

And Zeke, that goes to the -- Hillary's theory of this case, which is "Did you hear the tone of that reporter? Do you hear how he's coming after me about this? You know how they just want to play this gotcha game with me?"

Is that a fair appraisal of the situation?

ZEKE MILLER, POLITICAL REPORTER, "TIME": That certainly isn't. And we've seen from Hillary Clinton on Friday night at the Surf Ballroom at the Iowa Wing Ding, where she made that joke about Snapchat. "If only my e-mails, you know, just deleted themselves after 24 hours." That was sort of a very interesting tone.

We saw her now shifting to this -- it's somewhat of an offensive posture, now going after the reporter, going after the -- calling this a partisan investigation. And that was a -- it's a mood that she's taking out of defense, but also it's one that will rally -- she's hoping will rally Democrats around her.

[07:05:10] CAMEROTA: And yet, the trend line -- in terms of whether or not voters care about these e-mails -- is going the wrong way for her. Let's pull up the latest CNN poll, hot off the presses. It shows that in March -- OK, the question was, "Was Clinton wrong to use personal e-mail?" OK, so in March, 51 percent of respondents thought yes. Now it's 56 percent. Back then, 47 percent felt no, and now it's 39 percent.

So Errol, maybe it will go away in a minute when something eclipses it, and something will probably eclipse it. But at the moment, voters seem to be more engaged in it than she would hope.

LOUIS: Yes, although clearly, her opponents had to work really, really hard for that five percentage points. You know, I mean...

CUOMO: What's the answer to the question, by the way, legally?

LOUIS: I have absolutely no idea. I mean, look -- I mean, let's keep in mind, you do have to parse the words when it comes to something like this. When she says, "Oh, do you wipe it with a cloth?" I don't think anybody thinks she personally sat there and, you know, keyed in whatever key strokes had to go in to make the e-mail go away, not go away, get saved or get purged.

So you know, now you have to start talking about a, quote unquote, "conspiracy." What did she say? When did she say it? Who did she tell? It starts to get really, really complicated. I think that's when the public starts to maybe drift away and say, "I think there's something wrong here. But I don't really want to hear every last detail."

CUOMO: If there were wrong, Zeke, why is there not a criminal investigation? There's plenty of investigations going on. It's all happening under a Democratic administration, so that is a dent in the "This is a partisan investigation" suggestion. But why isn't there a criminal investigation into the actions of Hillary Clinton, if using the server was wrong?

MILLER: Well, using the server itself wasn't, quote unquote, "wrong." The question is did she turn over all of her federal records to the federal government after she left? She claims she did. But now that the FBI has a -- has her server, they're talking about forensically going back and trying to investigate and try to recover some of those e-mails. And that's never a good position to be in.

CUOMO: But has there been any suggestion that any of the e-mails she sent had classified information in them when she sent them, which would be very important?

MILLER: So far, it doesn't appear to be anything that she sent. It -- there are two e-mails now that the inspector general for the intelligence community said that she received that should have been marked that contained information that should have been marked classified at the time.

But again, you're -- there, you're talking about bureaucratic disputes. The intelligence community likes to over-classify everything. You know, the inspector general's on the record, saying that there's no such thing as over-classification. And the State Department takes a very different tone to that, because it looks at things differently.

CAMEROTA: I can't believe we've gone this long without talking about Donald Trump. This is a record. Let's correct that right now, because he is closing the gap with Hillary Clinton in the latest CNN poll.

Let me put up one that shows that she is now -- OK, this is choice for president in 2016, if it were Clinton/Trump. OK, so in June, you see that she was leading by a substantial amount.

CUOMO: He's up ten; she's down eight.

CAMEROTA: It narrowed a little bit. And then now it's 51-45. She's up just six points. What do you make of it, Errol?

LOUIS: Well, as a New York-based reporter who covers local politics, this would be like fantasy baseball, if it was Clinton versus Trump come November 2016. I don't think that's going to happen, though. And I think that these polls are -- I mean, we know, because we know how it looked in 2008, and we know how it looked in 2004. What you're doing a year and a half out is going to change dramatically when the first votes get cast. So we don't know if Trump is going to make it all the way through the primaries.

CAMEROTA: His numbers keep climbing.

LOUIS: Yes.

CAMEROTA: I mean, it's hard for you to say, that this impossible.

LOUIS: No, no, no. Not that it's impossible.

CUOMO: The thing is, Errol has been throwing water on the -- cold water on the suggestion of counting him out from the beginning.

LOUIS: No, you never count him out. You never count him out. I mean, he's going to -- look, he's going to stay until it's clear who the winner is going to be. And if the winner's not him, then he goes away.

I think you treat him like any other candidate. He's got absolutely no reason to walk away from this. He's got no reason to change anything that he's been doing. He's got a lot of upside to all this stuff.

CUOMO: What about one reason to change? Fifty-eight percent of his own party is saying they're better off without him, OK? What does that mean? That means that when you aggregate the people who are for everybody else, plus a little slice of the undecided, he's got a lot of work to do. How does Donald Trump get the 58 percent?

MILLER: He really doesn't. When you want to talk about, you know, Donald Trump's end game, nobody thinks that Donald Trump will actually be the Republican nominee. When you talk to every Republican candidate, every Republican consultant, they don't think it's going to happen. But how does he get out of the race? And right now, they're not sure.

He's at 25 percent roughly, and you're looking to Iowa and New Hampshire.

CUOMO: I'm saying the opposite: How does he become the majority candidate for the GOP?

MILLER: That's the thing. He really can't. He's so...

CUOMO: Why? Why can't he?

MILLER: He is so well-defined now. What he did here in this poll is he solidified himself. You know, jumping against Hillary Clinton at the time he jumped among Republicans, as well in that -- in the primary. That was just him taking up a few Republicans who were leaning towards him.

But he has 99, almost 100 percent name I.D., universal name I.D. Everyone has an opinion of him. That's really hard to change, and it will require a dramatic reshifting in tone. But the minute he stops, you know, sort of -- you know, he tones down the rhetoric is when he loses his supporters that got him this far.

CAMEROTA: Very quickly, Errol, is Biden going to get in this race?

[07:10:02] LOUIS: Biden has every reason to take it seriously. And his supporters have been talking about this for months now, really. It's now just sort of, I think, peaking above the surface and starting to find its way into news reports.

But he has absolutely no reason to discount it, because Hillary Clinton now, under 50 percent, which is kind of a key marker. A hundred percent name recognition. All the money in the world, all the experience in the world and still not a majority of Democratic voters really ready to commit. It is time for other candidates to consider jumping in.

CAMEROTA: Errol, Zeke, thanks so much. Great to see you guys.

CUOMO: Great stuff. Appreciate it.

And later this morning, we will be sitting down with Donald Trump for a wide-ranging interview. He wants to talk about his plans for immigration, whether they're consistent or not; what he thinks about job growth. He wants to get into it. And we want to get into it about is he taking himself seriously about what this means now? Did he really think he'd be in this position? What is it going to mean for him?

So we're going to do it today, and you're going to see it tonight, 9 p.m. Eastern, special CNN report. Here's the title -- put a lot of work into it -- "The Donald Trump Interview." All right?

CAMEROTA: It doesn't get better than that.

CUOMO: We're going to save some of the tasty bits and insights for you and play them here Thursday morning, of course, tomorrow morning right on NEW DAY.

CAMEROTA: Can't wait.

MICHAELA PEREIRA, CNN ANCHOR: How many hours did you come up on the...

CUOMO: It's still -- it's still...

PEREIRA: Working title?

CUOMO: A working title.

PEREIRA: Thanks, Chris.

Well, another key Democrat declaring he'll vote against the Iran nuclear deal. New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez is the latest to slam the pack and the president. This as the Senate's top Republican admits the deal will likely pass Congress, despite growing opposition.

Our chief White House correspondent Jim Acosta is live in Martha's Vineyard, where the president is vacationing, and joins us now-- Jim.

JIM ACOSTA, CNN CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Michaela.

The list of Democrats coming out against the Iran deal is growing. As expected, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's former chairman, Bob Menendez, announced his opposition to nuclear agreement yesterday, joining Senator Chuck Schumer, who's also sided against the deal. And Menendez did not pull any punches when he announced his opposition. Here's what he had to say. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BOB MENENDEZ (D), NEW JERSEY: I have looked into my own soul, and my devotion to principle may once again lead me to an unpopular course. But if Iran is to acquire a nuclear bomb, it will not have my name on it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: Now, Menendez is hardly the biggest setback of the week for the White House. That distinction goes to Republican Senator Jeff Flake, who likely ended any White House hopes for bipartisan support for the deal.

A White House official, though, said the president is engaged on the issue, even though he's here on vacation in Martha's Vineyard, adding -- this official saying, adding, "We remain confident that, ultimately, a majority of Democrats in both the House and the Senate will support this deal."

That is critical, because Republicans face an uphill battle, needing 11 more Democratic senators to defy the president, vote to block the agreement, and then most importantly, join GOP efforts to override any presidential veto, a veto that would come, as expected from the White House to try to knock down any Republican attempt to stop this deal from happening.

And that's not to mention the dozens of Democratic defections the Republicans are also seeking in the House, which explains why the Senate majority leader yesterday, Mitch McConnell, was quoted by reporters in Kentucky as saying the president has a great likelihood of success.

So the bottom line here, Alisyn, the White House feels like the numbers have not changed. They are still in their favor -- Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: OK, Jim. Thanks so much for breaking that down for us.

Well, Jared Fogle, who became a household name as the pitchman for Subway, is expected to plead guilty today in court to charges in a child pornography case. CNN's Ryan Young is live outside the federal courthouse in Indianapolis -- Ryan.

RYAN YOUNG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Alisyn, look, this is a case that shocked many people. A lot of people know Jared, of course, from all the Subway ads that he's done throughout the years, where he claimed he lost over 245 pounds from eating Subway sandwiches.

But no one is thinking about that right now. They're thinking about the raid that just happened last month. We saw FBI investigators going through the home. In fact, they used specialized dogs throughout the area to search the home and find electronics.

Now we know the forensic audit has been done, and Jared will face charges. There will be a news conference this afternoon. We're hoping to learn more information about what FBI investigators have found.

We do know that this is all on the heels of Russell Taylor, who was in charge of Jared's Childhood Obesity Foundation being charged with child pornography after tapes were found inside that home. Now this case has spiraled out of control, and Jared will face charges.

We do know in a tweet yesterday, Subway said, "We no longer have a relationship with Jared and have no further comment."

A lot of people, obviously, are shocked in this community about that. Hopefully, we'll find out more information during this news conference this afternoon -- Chris.

CUOMO: All right. Thank you for staying on it, Ryan, appreciate it.

There's a manhunt under way right now in Thailand in connection with this week's deadly blast in Bangkok. An arrest warrant was just issued for the man seen in this brand-new police sketch. Investigators say he placed a bomb at a popular shrine that killed 20 people. Officials -- and here's the new information -- do not believe he acted alone. Reuters reporting this morning, police are looking for two other men seen in that surveillance video. More to come.

PEREIRA: Well, it would appear that bad things seem to happen when NFL teams hold joint practices during the preseason. [07:15:07] Case in point: the Dallas Cowboys, St. Louis Rams getting

after each other Tuesday. All heck breaks loose. Punches flying. Players going to the ground. In fact, the brawl nearly spilled over into the area where fans were watching the practice. They ultimately had to end the practice and leaving executives scratching their heads about what to do about this kind of...

They like to see fight, right? In terms of that fight to get up and win, but that kind of fight in the preseason?

CAMEROTA: Looks like a hockey game.

PEREIRA: Hey now.

CUOMO: They don't fight as well as hockey players. And though they do have a healthy fear of hitting the helmet.

You see the fans, how they were egging them on and loving it? You know, this dynamic of violence.

PEREIRA: I know.

CUOMO: There's a reason it happens, and it's not just because...

PEREIRA: I know.

CUOMO: ... you've got a guy -- bunch of guys out there doing the wrong thing.

All right. So when you compare yourself in your presidential campaign to having the speed of a tortoise, do you realistically have a chance of becoming president? That is a rhetorical question, but Jeb Bush seems to think the answer is yes. Next, to the biggest hurdles Jeb must jump to claim the GOP nomination. Remember, he was seen as a prohibitive frontrunner just a month and a half ago.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[07:20:06] CAMEROTA: Jeb Bush appears to be having a hard time breaking through the phenomenon of Donald Trump. Bush's strategy seems to be slow and steady. He's even referred to himself as the joyful tortoise. But what will that strategy do? Will it win?

Let's bring in Tom Fiedler. He's the dean of the College of Communications for Boston University and former executive editor for "The Miami Herald."

Tom, great to see you.

TOM FIEDLER, DEAN, COLLEGE OF COMMUNICATIONS, BOSTON UNIVERSITY: Likewise. Good to be here.

CAMEROTA: Thanks for being here on NEW DAY.

So we should let everybody know you've covered every U.S. presidential campaign from 1972 to 1996, and you also covered Jeb when he was governor of Florida. So are you surprised, Tom, that he seems to be slow in gathering steam?

FIEDLER: Well, this is -- this is -- it's somewhat new for him in that he's -- when he ran in the past, he always ran from the front. He was the frontrunner when he ran for governor and both times. So there was no question about that.

But I do think that he really does see himself more as the long- distance runner. He's, to use that expression, he really is much more of the workhorse than the show horse. He's much more comfortable doing this. And he's now embraced the idea of the tortoise. Of course, he likes the way that that story ends.

CAMEROTA: Yes, he does. I mean, the joyful tortoise. That's such a funny -- I like it. It's an endearing; there's such a funny -- that's a funny expression. But is now the time and place for a joyful tortoise? I mean, with all of the fanfare around Donald Trump and being such a showman, maybe that's what wins the race nowadays.

FIEDLER: I don't know that, obviously, but I think what we're seeing really is that it's just -- this is the way that summer sensations work. It's the reason why Hollywood doesn't put out any serious films in the summertime. People like the blockbuster. They like the slam bang, that kind of thing. And Donald Trump is giving everybody that right now.

But I think as time goes on -- and I do think that Jeb Bush is aware of this -- people will tend to become more reflective. They'll start to listen to those voices, either their personal friends or the people who they follow in the media, that they have respect for.

When those voices start to weigh in on the race, and people realize that there's something more at stake here than just maybe a quick opinion in the summer and a public opinion poll, I think at that point, you will see Donald Trump fade. You'll see Jeb Bush and perhaps some of the others who are what I would think of as more reflective, they'll start to emerge. I think Jeb sees that, and he's very comfortable where he is.

CAMEROTA: Reflective is one word for it. There's a great piece on CNN.com right now about Bush's personality traits and they may actually be getting in his way.

FIEDLER: Right.

CAMEROTA: He's referred to as a little bookish. He's referred to as a little awkward.

FIEDLER: Right.

CAMEROTA: And those things seem to be getting in his way a little bit on the trail. Have you seen that, when he was running ahead, for governor, was he exhibiting the same things, or has he really lost his footing this time around?

FIEDLER: Well, he may be a little bit rusty, and he's working on that. But no, this is very characteristic. You ask Jeb Bush his opinion on something, and he doesn't give you something that would fit on a bumper strip. He'll give you a chapter in a book or maybe the whole book. He really does think in very nuanced ways.

And it takes time for people to digest that. And I think one of the -- one of the results of that is he's a fairly pedestrian campaigner. But he also doesn't frighten people. He's kind of everybody's favorite No. 2. And I think that's what he's looking at here. As others start to fall out, it's unlikely they'll go to Donald Trump. I think Jeb Bush wants to be there to pick up those people.

CAMEROTA: Let's look at the latest CNN poll, because I think it reflects what you're talking about. It does show Trump in the lead. He's at 24 percent. Bush is No. 2 at 13 percent.

What's interesting is just a month ago, he was at 15 percent. Donald Trump was at 18 percent. So it's going in the wrong direction. I mean, a lot of people referred to Trump as, you know, a summer fling. But it's -- it's persisting into late August, and the trend lines are going in the wrong direction.

Interestingly, tonight, Jeb and Trump have competing town halls in New Hampshire. They are just 20 miles apart. How do you think that's going to go?

FIEDLER: Well, my guess is that the media will find that Donald Trump's town hall meeting will be the much more interesting of the two. But again, I don't see that that's going to be something that will worry Jeb too much. He is quite content at this point to let Donald Trump go out there. He's like the meteor. And as things fade, I think Jeb will be -- he'll be there.

[07:25:05] You know, he's like -- probably the only parallel we have is Teddy Kennedy, being the third member of that famous family. Jeb Bush doesn't need to do anything to raise his profile. He just needs to be there, be steady and be the safe fallback. And I suspect that that's where his strategy is.

CAMEROTA: It does seem to be his strategy. Dean Thomas Fiedler, thanks so much for being on NEW DAY.

FIEDLER: It's a pleasure, Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: Let's get over to Michaela.

PEREIRA: OK, Alisyn. A second Obama ally pulling his support of the Iran nuclear agreement. A top Republican on the Hill, though, admits it's still not enough to ultimately derail the plan. Israel, for its part, remains outspoken against it. That country's ambassador will join us live on NEW DAY next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CUOMO: All right, so a second prominent Democrat says he will not vote for Iran's nuclear deal. Senator Bob Menendez pulling his support. Still, the Senate's top Republican concedes it will be difficult to block the Iran deal, even if Congress votes against it. Now many are being influenced by Israel's staunch opposition to the

plan. So let's get the inside on why that is. Joining us, Ambassador Ron Dermer. He's Israel's ambassador to the United Nations.

Ambassador, thank you for being on the show.

RON DERMER, ISRAELI AMBASSADOR TO UNITED STATES: United States, but thank you.