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Hillary Clinton's Recent Polls Numbers Examined; Democratic Senator Bob Menendez to Vote Against Iran Nuclear Deal; Thai Officials Ask for Public Assistance in Identifying Park Bomber; Accuser Takes Stand in Prep School Rape Trial; Trump Ignites Birthright Citizenship. Aired 8-8:30a ET

Aired August 19, 2015 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:00] ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: -- within striking distance of the Democrat front-runner. CNN senior Washington correspondent Jeff Zeleny is live in Washington to break down all the new polls for us. Tell us what you're seeing, Jeff.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Hey, good morning, Alisyn. For weeks now Democrats have been smiling as Donald Trump has surged. But our new poll shows a new reason for Democrats to take Trump's candidacy a bit more seriously. Look at these numbers. Clinton is now leading Donald Trump is now leading by six points, a dramatic tightening since July when there was a 16 point gap, in June a 24 point gap. The reason is this. His standing is up among Republicans, some independents, and white voters.

Now, among Democrats Clinton is still driving this race. She's leading Bernie Sanders by 18 points. But our poll shows a reverse of fortunes for Clinton and Sanders. Since July, now, Clinton has fallen nine points while Sanders has climbed ten points. So the Sanders surge is real.

Now, should Joe Biden run for president? A majority of Democrats in our poll say yes, 53 percent want him to jump into this campaign while 45 percent say no. Now, even Clinton supporters say they want Biden in, a sign they're perhaps hungry for a competitive contest. All this comes as positive impressions of Clinton continue to slip a bit. And 44 percent have a favorable view of her while 53 percent have an unfavorable one. Now, this is a reversal since her campaign began in March.

One reason is this -- all these questions about her private e- mail server, 56 percent say she was wrong to use personal e-mail as secretary of state, 39 percent say she was not. Now, that was a topic of a heated exchange with reporters in Nevada yesterday after a campaign town hall meeting.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON, FORMER U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: My personal e- mails are my personal business, right? That's all I can say.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Did you try to wipe the whole server?

CLINTON: I have no idea. That's why we turned it over.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You were in charge of it. Did you wipe the server?

CLINTON: What, like with a cloth or something?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't know. You know how it works digitally.

CLINTON: I don't know how it works digitally at all.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: Now, she may not know how things work digitally but she's about to find out. The FBI and Justice Department is looking into that server to see whether it had the security for the type of messages she received as secretary of state. Chris and Alisyn?

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: All right, Jeff, stay with us. Let's bring in CNN politics executive editor Mark Preston. Mark, let's look within the numbers. Still strong for Hillary, no question about it. This flip in favorability, let's put that up again he, because that speaks to how she's handling this campaign in general, whether you want to point to how she's dealing with the media, how she's dealing with the e-mail, et cetera, what does it speak to in your opinion?

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICS EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Well, Chris, no doubt exchanges like we saw in Nevada yesterday are not good for Hillary Clinton. She comes off very defensive. But we also need to put into perspective as well, she's no longer the nonpartisan secretary of state who had high approval numbers. She's now a partisan Democrat. So that in itself is going to drop her down. But you are right. When you look over the last six months and how she's handled this e-mail situation, it has not been good for her, the controversy has not been good for her, and certainly how they've addressed it as a campaign has not been good for her.

CAMEROTA: It does seem to be divided among party lines at the moment, because let's look at this about who believes how she used her e-mail was wrong. So let's put up this poll, because basically is shows 82 percent of Republicans think that she has been very wrong in how she conducted herself with the email, 58 percent of independents, only 31 percent of Democrats. So that suggests at least for the primary this won't be as big an issue.

PRESTON: No question, for the primary it will not be as big an issue. It's one of the reasons she probably has slid some and Sanders has climbed. But Alisyn, the key fact there is the number in the middle, independents, 58 percent. The general election is what's on the minds and the worry of some Democrats here, not the primary election. She is driving this Democratic primary campaign right now at least, has a little bit of pressure from Bernie Sanders on her left flank, but not anything considerable. She's over 50 percent in all the head to head matchups with all of the potential Republican opponents. So the Clinton campaign is happy about that. But we don't know where this is going. Are those trend lines going to continue? Are these questions going to continue? And the uncertainty of the investigation is hanging out there. So the numbers are good for now, but it's wait and see.

CUOMO: The problem with investigations they don't end at any particular time, especially on the federal level. They can just keep them open.

Let me ask you, put your noodle on this one, Mr. Preston. When you look at Hillary versus Trump, Hillary versus Jeb, OK, the numbers are almost exactly the same, and yet Trump is squashing Jeb in the GOP polls. So I don't see that. What do you make of that?

[08:05:00] PRESTON: When you look at the head to head matchup, and certainly over the past month or so, I think a lot has to do with Donald Trump himself and the support that he's getting from Republicans for a head to head matchup against Hillary Clinton. But Donald Trump has certainly said a lot of things in the past couple of weeks that would probably sink any other candidacy. However, it seems to only give him more fuel to drive his message forward.

I think when you compare Jeb to Donald Trump, certainly when you're talking to Republican voters, Donald Trump is more forceful. He's reaching out and really tapping into an anger I think in the electorate. Jeb Bush is more muted and more quiet. I think that's why you see the differentiation.

CAMEROTA: Hey, Jeff, let's look at the Democrats choice for president, because it's telling in that Bernie Sanders is gaining on Hillary Clinton. So if you look at just last month, well, Bernie Sanders is now at 29 percent. Obviously she has a big lead. But if you look at last month, he's gone up by 10 percent. She has gone down. Now look at the Biden numbers there. What calculus are his advisors looking at to see with these numbers about whether or not he gets in?

ZELENY: Alisyn, one of the things they're looking at to see, is she vulnerable in a general election? Is she even vulnerable in a primary campaign. And I think it's clear that she is. Her numbers have gone down 10 points in the last month. Bernie Sanders' have gone up. So if we were to chart this out it would look like a stock market of one stock that's climbing, one stock that's falling.

So in the middle of all this sits Vice President Biden's decision. What is he going to do? It's one part of his calculus to see if there is an opening but not the entire part. I'm told by his advisors that he's going to make a gut decision about if this would be helpful for him, if it would be sort of therapeutic for him to run, if, frankly, he would be having fun running. But no question there is opening for someone else. And one number that popped out, Bernie Sanders supporters are more enthusiastic. They are diehard supporters who are going to be there to the end. The question is, can he gain any more Democrats from the Clinton side? And we'll just have to wait and see over the next six months for the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.

CUOMO: We and a lot of the media were encouraging of Bernie Sanders get into the race because the senator from Vermont does provoke a lot of passion for the left part of that party. We thought that that would be an interesting mix of ideas because certainly the Clintons are more known for the centrism.

CAMEROTA: It's fun to have a lot of people in the race for the media to cover.

CUOMO: I also think it makes it better for people to have choices. However, what Jeff just said, Mark, let's chew on that one more second. He says you know you see one stock going up, one stock going down. However, it's why one stock is going up and one stock is going down. Is this about more in the marketplace or about there being a weakness in Hillary Clinton? Because as you know a lot of Biden's people are worried that he has a ceiling on him, that he's at 14 or 15 percent right now but he may only get to 25 percent within the party and that's part of their calculus as well. You think she's on the way down, or this is just the mix increasing?

PRESTON: I think it's the mix. A couple things here. One is when you look at Joe Biden I don't think there's a yearning for a Joe Biden presidency necessarily. Hillary Clinton still has the majority of the Democratic Party behind her. What they want to see is a race. Right now the only viable option a lot of people think, certainly when you look at the more centrist part of the Democrat Party, is Joe Biden. And if you go back to 2007, 2008, what made Barack Obama so strong was the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama that didn't get over until June of 2008 that year. That forced Barack Obama to keep his political operation moving.

But I do think there is something to be said about the Bernie Sanders candidacy, and that is that he is reaching and electrifying a certain part of the base that doesn't think the Obama administration has been liberal enough. And in many ways Hillary Clinton is going to have to follow Bernie Sanders down that path on some issues.

CAMEROTA: All right, Jeff, Mark, thanks so much for breaking down all the numbers for us, really helpful conversation guys, thanks.

CUOMO: Now, if you want to understand why the GOP numbers are moving around the way they are, you have to talk to the people who are behind the numbers. The one at the top of the field right now is Donald Trump. He has a plan for you on immigration. He has a plan about the economy. Now we have to open up the category of education. What are his ideas for you?

So we're going to sit down today and do a very wide ranging interview. You remember the one we did last week here on NEW DAY. This one will be face to face and we will go through his ideas for you so you can best vet him as a choice and not just a popularity figure. Tonight at 9:00 p.m. eastern we'll put it on TV. It's called "CNN Special Report, The Donald Trump Interview," so you won't be confused about it being anything else. And the next morning we will have different parts of the interview Thursday for you here on NEW DAY.

MICHAELA PEREIRA, CNN ANCHOR: Fantastic. It's going to be a great conversation to be had. All right, this morning another high ranking Democrat announcing

that he will flat out vote against the Iran nuclear deal. This while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell concedes that the deal will likely survive Congress despite growing opposition.

[08:10:02] What's all the debate about? CNN's chief White House correspondent live in Martha's Vineyard is Jim Acosta joining us where the president is vacationing. Hi, Jim.

JIM ACOSTA, CNN CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Michaela. You're right. The list of Democrats coming out against the Iran deal is growing. As expected, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's former chairman Bob Menendez announced his opposition to the nuclear agreement. He joins Senator Chuck Schumer, another high profile opponent of this deal. But Menendez when he came out and announced his opposition to this agreement, he did not mince any words. Here's some of what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BOB MENENDEZ, (D) NEW JERSEY: I have looked into my own soul. And my devotion to principle may once again lead me to an unpopular course. But if Iran is to acquire a nuclear bomb, it will not have my name on it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: Now, make no mistake, this did not come as a surprise to the White House. This was expected. And Menedez is hardly the biggest setback of the week for the administration. That distinction goes to Republican senator Jeff Lake. He likely ended all White House hopes for any bipartisan support for this deal.

But a White House official said the president is engaged on this issue while he's out here on Martha's Vineyard, adding, and we'll put this up on the screen, "We remain confident that ultimately a majority of Democrats in both the House and the Senate will support the deal." So note the new definition of success there. Not that they will actually get all Republicans and Democrats or a majority of those Republicans and Democrats to vote in favor of this, just a majority of Democrats at this point.

But that is critical, because Republicans face an uphill battle. They need 11 more Democratic senators to defy the president, vote to block the agreement and join any GOP efforts to override any presidential vetoes. That is a tall order. And that is not to mention that dozens of Democrats that Republicans would need to defect essentially. And all of that explains why the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was quoted earlier this week as saying the president has a great likelihood of success. That is exactly how they feel inside the White House, Alisyn.

CAMEROTA: All right, Jim, thanks so much for breaking all that down for us out on there on Martha's Vineyard.

Meanwhile, there are new developments to tell you about this morning in the manhunt for the Bangkok bomber. Thai police issuing an arrest warrant for the man they believed dumped a backpack at a popular shrine before blowing it up Monday. Investigators think that he is a foreigner and they do not believe that he acted alone. CNN correspondent Saima Mohsin is live in Bangkok with the latest. Saima?

SAIMA MOHSIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Alisyn, we have more information coming to us this hour. CNN has spoken to the motorbike taxi driver that took the suspect away from the scene. Now, what we understand is that the suspect left the shrine. He walked down the road a couple of hundred meters away to a major hotel outside. He queued up in a motorbike taxi. But he didn't speak to the motorbike taxi driver. The tax drive said he handed him a note. On it was written "Lumpini Park," a major park similar to Central Park in New York, if you like. And that's all he did. He handed him a note, and the taxi driver took him.

The taxi driver also told us that throughout that journey, the journey took only five minutes at that time of day, the man was speaking in a language he says is neither Thai nor English. It's a language he says he did not recognize. Of course police today also releasing a statement at a press conference saying they are offering a 1 million baht, that's around $28,000, reward for anyone who can give information leading to the arrest of this man. They are asking the court to issue two arrest warrants, one for premeditated murder with intent to kill, the second for making a bomb.

They are asking the public, whether that be locals or tourists, to offer their photographs and videos to help piece together a better picture of how this man and the accomplice they believe he was working with came into this area to leave the bomb and then left. They are trying to identify both men. This is the way that the police in the United States identified the Boston bombers, you remember. And they're hoping to replicate that here in Thailand. Chris?

CUOMO: Saima, thank you very much.

We have another breaking situation to tell you about. Word just coming in from Rueters reporting a shooting outside of an historic palace in Istanbul, Turkey. The place is popular with tourists, but it's also where the prime minister's office is. Local media say two armed men were detained near the scene. So far no reports of casualties. Ambulances are on scene and nearby roads sealed off. The incident coming after recent attacks in Istanbul and a suicide bombing of a rally in the Turkish town of Suruc.

[08:15:00] PEREIRA: Getting new information about a situation in Washington state, our CNN affiliate KIRO is reporting that three people are unaccounted for following an explosion at a Washington state motel, that blast apparently sparked by a gas leak overnight. And it caused part of the Motel Six in Bremerton to collapse.

A gas worker was there on scene checking a leak. He was critically injured in the sudden explosion.

Fire crews are on the scene. We're told some of them were blown back some 20 feet from the blast.

Officials say the motel was evacuated before the incident, but they could not confirm if everyone was able to get out.

CAMEROTA: Another dramatic day of testimony expected at the trial of a prep school graduate accused of raping a female student as part of a sex competition among seniors at this prestigious school.

CNN's Boris Sanchez is following the developments for us.

This is a complicated case, Boris.

BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It certainly is, Alisyn. The accusations are unsettling, both sides going back and forth in court yesterday in explicit detail about what happened between these two students. The testimony is difficult to listen to. And more of it is expected before this case wraps up.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SANCHEZ (voice-over): Just a few miles from the elite St. Paul's High School, 19-year-old Owen Labrie sat in court listening as his former schoolmate gave her testimony accusing him of rape, saying in court, quote, "I thought his intentions were really wrong", end quote.

The prosecutor arguing Tuesday that when Labrie contacted a then 15-year-old schoolmate last year, he did so with one intention.

CATHERINE RUFFLE, DEPUTY MERRIMACK COUNTY ATTORNEY: To solicit, lure, or entice her to meet with him with a man he was going to have sex with her.

SANCHEZ: Labrie is pleading in to allegations that he raped her at the elite prep school where they were both students, and further denying that they had sex days before his graduation last year.

RUFFLE: This was not a consensual act.

SANCHEZ: The prosecutor revealing that a nurse observed an abrasion on the accuser's genital area which she says are, quote, "consistent with an assault." The encounter occurred, both sides agree, as part of a decades old tradition of St. Paul's known as a senior salute, a competition described as male seniors trying to wrack up sex encounters with younger female students.

Labrie's attorney arguing Tuesday that not all senior salutes were sexual, even reading messages in court to illustrate that the accuser willingly participated. "Only if it's our little secret," she wrote. Labrie replied, "Not a soul needs to know."

On Tuesday, St. Paul's published a statement on the school's website saying, quote, "Allegations about our culture are not emblematic of our school or our values, our rules or the people that represent our student body, alumni, faculty and staff."

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANCHEZ: This case has the potential to tarnish the reputation of this well-respected school. You have to consider six congressmen, 13 ambassadors and Secretary of State John Kerry went there. Not a good look for St. Paul's.

PEREIRA: Not at all.

CUOMO: This trial not about the school, but a review of this school is almost inevitable.

Boris, thank you very much. Appreciate it.

All right. So, the words would be mind and blown. What? You'll get it when you see this.

(VIDEO CLIP PLAYS)

PEREIRA: Get it, get it, get it. Oh yes!

CAMEROTA: He's got some fast fine moves.

CUOMO: This tape is not sped up.

PEREIRA: I love it. Get it, fella.

CUOMO: People do not understand how supple these big men are. That's Washington Redskins defensive end Ricky Jean Francois. He's bringing back the peanut butter jelly dance. Francois apparently always breaks it down to this jam for fans on the last day of training camp and we must say he did not disappoint.

PEREIRA: Can I ask you something, Mo?

CUOMO: Yes.

PEREIRA: I feel like you've been trying to tell us something yesterday, today. Do you have a dance inside of you that you need to release or something?

CUOMO: I must say, I love seeing a big man dance. I do.

PEREIRA: Because you're a big man and you've got a dance in you.

CUOMO: I am like a toothpick in their teeth compared to the size of these guys. But I just love that you think one way to beat these guys. And you see them do this and it blows me away. I love it.

CAMEROTA: But you deprived of your dance moves, which I hope you'll show us maybe tomorrow.

PEREIRA: Be careful what you wish for.

CUOMO: You know, don't hate. Don't hate. Appreciate.

PEREIRA: All right. Donald Trump digging in his heels. He's calling for an end to granting automatic citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants that are born in the U.S. Is the issue going to get another look, and could it actually lead to constitutional change? We'll take a look ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[08:23:25] BILL O'REILLY, FOX NEWS: If you're born here, you're an American, period. Period.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But there are many lawyers, many lawyers are saying that's not the way it is. It's going to have to be tested, but they say it's not going to hold up in court.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: All right. So, that was Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump doubling down on getting rid of birthright citizenship. Six other GOP presidential hopefuls also want to repeal the 14th Amendment, right to citizenship that is extended to any baby born on American soil regardless of parents' status.

So, is this possible to repeal?

Let's bring in Jonathan Turley. He's a professor of law at George Washington University and a constitutional expert.

Good morning, Jonathan.

JONATHAN TURLEY, PROFESSOR OF LAW, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY: Hi, Alison.

CAMEROTA: OK. So, let's just start by reading the 14th Amendment. Let me read what it says.

All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside.

Is Donald Trump right that lots of lawyers reject this or at least think it's open to interpretation?

TURLEY: Well, there's some that have argued that it's open to interpretation because of the jurisdictional reference there. But the vast majority of constitutional scholars view this as set in constitutional amber. You have to change the Constitution to change birthright citizenship.

It doesn't mean there are no arguments to be made. Some scholars have argued that this is based on an understanding of mutual consent that doesn't apply to so-called anchor babies. If you cross the border, have a child, then that would automatically bestow citizenship.

And that debate as gone on. But most people believe, particularly because of the Supreme Court interpretations, that you would need to change the Constitution.

[08:25:05] Those go back to decisions from 1898 where the courts seemed accept that even illegal immigrants would be able to benefit from birthright citizenship.

CAMEROTA: You talked about anchor babies. That's the term used by people who are generally against people coming here and having babies.

Let me show you the numbers, because this is instructive. It's interesting. About 36,000 birth tourists -- that's another term used in this -- have children in the U.S. and birth tourists means women who come here specifically just to have babies. So, come here for a week, a month, just to have babies, in order to establish citizenship for that baby.

Then, there's about 340,000 babies a year born to undocumented immigrants. That's about 9 percent of the babies born.

So, these are real numbers. I mean, this is something -- this is an issue that needs to be dealt with one way or another. Has the Supreme Court ever ruled on this?

TURLEY: You know, the Supreme Court has really danced on the edges here. I mentioned the 1898 case involving Chinese illegal immigrants. The court has made a couple of references indicating that it views illegal immigrants as falling within these definitions of birthright citizenship. This really came from England. We imported this from our English roots.

Most countries, however, do not recognize birth right citizenship. They don't recognize citizenship by soil rather than blood as it's sometimes referred to. So, this is a legitimate debate in the sense of a historical debate. It's one that we're in the minority on. But it's a debate that has powerful arguments on both sides.

CAMEROTA: Does Mexico recognize birthright citizenship?

TURLEY: Not quite the same way that we have. Canada, on the other side, has a very similar sort of liberal rule to our own.

Most of the countries do not, although we have seen a loosening of that rule. Some countries that don't allow birthright citizenship have, in fact, allowed it over a period of time. If you're in the country for ten years or so, you can get that type of citizenship. So there are variations among the countries.

CAMEROTA: You know, one of the things that's really interesting, Jonathan, is to go back and read the transcript of the battle that they were having in 1866 about this very same topic. And all of the same issues came up.

I'm sure that you're very familiar with this citizenship clause proposal in which one of the senators suggested this will not, of course, include persons born in the United States who are foreigners, aliens who belong to the families of ambassadors or foreign ministers accredited to the government of the United States. I mean, this very same argument of who should be afforded this birthright citizenship.

TURLEY: That's right. Part of that debate has fueled the argument that that clause referring being subject to the jurisdiction thereof actually has meaning in that it does not allow for the same broad birthright citizenship arguments that we use today. We have to remember that this was primarily the product of the Dred Scott decision. In that case, the Supreme Court said that a slave could not be considered a citizen for the purposes of the Constitution.

And so, that had to be corrected and it was corrected in the 14th Amendment. But many people have continued to debate whether that little clause, referring to -- subject to the jurisdiction thereof --

CAMEROTA: Yes.

TURLEY: -- has a significant meaning in explaining it in a sense.

CAMEROTA: Well, Jonathan Turley, thanks so much for explaining. It's interesting to see it come back now 150 years later and we'll see how much traction it gets on the campaign trail.

Let us know what your take is. You can tweet us using the #NewDayCNN, or post your comment on Facebook.com/NewDay. We'll read those.

Let's get to Michaela.

PEREIRA: All right. Alisyn, a new CNN poll showing Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump closing in on Hillary Clinton. Will her e- mail scandal ultimately hurt her chances of winning her party's nomination? We'll take a look at that ahead on NEW DAY.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)