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Hollande & Obama Urge Russia to Focus on ISIS; Trump: "I Can Do Almost Anything" and Not Lose Support; Russia P.M.: Not Planning to Go to War with Turkey. Aired 6:30-7a ET

Aired November 25, 2015 - 06:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[06:30:48] MICHAELA PEREIRA, CNN ANCHOR: French President Francois Hollande trying to build a global coalition to wipe out ISIS. He meets with German's chancellor today and Russia's president tomorrow. President Hollande and President Obama both united in saying Assad of Syria must go.

CNN senior Washington correspondent Joe Johns live at the White House with all of these meetings and the importance of them all.

JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Michaela. This meeting yesterday was made all the more timely by the shoot-down of a Russian warplane by Turkish jets. President Obama calling for a de-escalation of tensions in the region, also supporting the right of Turkey, a NATO ally, to defend itself.

This meeting between the president and the French president was supposed to be about creating a grand coalition between the United States and Russia and others in the fight against ISIS, but about the only thing Hollande and President Obama seemed to be able to agree upon was getting the allies to participate more, more information sharing and information gathering.

Now, as you said, President Hollande goes on to meet with Angela Merkel of Germany. That occurs today. Then he goes to a meeting with Vladimir Putin of Russia again to talk once more about that coalition.

One big question, of course, is the issue of a regime change in Syria. President Obama has said Bashar al Assad has to go, but Russia has been accused of propping him up. So, we will just have to see how that goes.

There will be another opportunity for President Obama to sit down and talk once again with the French president. That will occur at a climate conference this weekend. President Obama goes on Sunday to Paris.

Back to you, Chris.

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: It's obvious, Joe, you know, you're looking at it around the edges, the question is where is this critical mass of momentum that they need in this war against ISIS.

Thank you for the reporting.

So, big provocative question that's kind of driving the 2016 race for president is Donald Trump's success. The question why does he seem to get it right with supporters and polls when critics say he is all wrong? We are going to take a closer look at why he may be doing well not despite what he says but exactly because of it.

And a reminder, top of the hour, Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush live. Stay for his take.

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[06:37:14] CUOMO: Donald Trump is in South Carolina and he tells voters about his ability to overcome his most controversial statements. Why is he able to regularly make comments that would certainly get other candidates in more trouble than they do with him?

Let's discuss. We got CNN senior political analyst and editorial director at "The National Journal", Ron Brownstein, and CNN political commentator and political anchor at Time Warner Cable News, Errol Louis.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: OK. So let's talk about how Donald Trump is enjoying his bulletproof status. Here's what he said on the campaign trail last night in South Carolina about it.

CUOMO: Teflon Don.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They say that Trump can do almost anything and nobody leaves me. It is true, you know? A couple of things they said, oh, this is the end. This is the end, what he just said. And I liked what I said, right? But they say it all the time, these dopes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAMEROTA: These dopes.

CUOMO: That's us he is talking about, by the way.

(LAUGHTER)

CAMEROTA: These dopes.

OK, Ron, let me start with you. How -- how do you explain that we've never seen anything like this and he's never tripped up by his controversial comments?

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I guess I would dispute he has paid no cost for this. There's no question that Donald Trump is connecting with his base and many of the things that he says that are challenged have not hurt him with that base because they share the underlying sentiments that he is expressing about Muslim-Americans, about immigrants, about crime, that's particularly true among the blue collar Republicans who are the core of this support.

But if you look at the polling, I think it is very clear that Donald Trump is facing significantly more resistance among the center right, white collar wing of the party. In the ABC/"Washington Post" poll last week, he was at 41 percent among non-college Republicans. That's a very big number, only 23 percent among college-educated Republicans.

In the Iowa poll that came out yesterday by Quinnipiac University, only two-fifth of college-educated Republicans in Iowa says he shares their values. So, I think there is a bloc of the party that is unsettled by Trump's persona, his language, his demeanor, but no one has yet consolidated that against him and that's why he does not seem to be paying any price for that that could change down the road and then we will look back somewhat differently on the presentation he has made this fall.

CUOMO: Well, that's a nice piece of erudition there, Errol, but where are all the people in the polling? All these people who are against him, where are they?

ERROL LOUIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I mean, look, another way to interpret it, I think Ron is exactly right. I mean, he's not losing support but is he gaining support?

CUOMO: Yes.

LOUIS: Well, the reality is that it's not -- it's not galloping along, right? I mean, as Ron points out. And they never like to hear this, but if you're going to talk about one poll number, you have to talk about all the poll numbers.

Lesser-educated Republicans are much more enamored of Donald Trump than those who have college degrees.

[06:40:00] Now at some point, those numbers start to mean something, especially after people go to the polls.

The other thing is we have some big stuff ahead of us. I think we are still in the shopping phase. There are a lot of people who are just getting to know their candidates. They are -- the numbers suggest that people are tuning in in huge numbers to these debates and they are liking what they hear and they're still sort of thinking about it.

But we also know from past election cycles that after the first votes start getting polled, the numbers of Google searches shoot up into the stratosphere. The numbers of people who suddenly start changing their mind starts to shoot into the stratosphere and really starts to turn into sort of a big convenient and a rolling wave into that first -- into super Tuesday, frankly, where lots and lots of things happen all at once.

So, Donald Trump is enjoying his moment in the sun. I don't know how long that lasts. Maybe it lasts, maybe he -- maybe he does ride this to the White House. But it's really too soon to be sure about that.

CAMEROTA: Ron, has something shifted in our country or our culture, more comfortable being in fact-free zones, because we feel things. You know, he is tapping into what voters feel. It's their impression. And don't bother them with facts really.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, you know, it is interesting, because -- I mean, it does reflect kind of this retreat to separate corners where each party, Daniel Patrick Moynihan once famously said, people are entitled to their own opinions, they are not entitled to their own facts, and we kind of moved to only some extent before that each party, especially the most partisan elements relying on information sources that largely confirm what they already believe.

You know, I would agree with Chris, there's no question that Trump is seeing his support consolidate and somewhat grow as you get this nexus of immigration and terrorism into the headlines. That really pushes the buttons of the voters who are most drawn to him.

But I do believe that if you look at the numbers, escorting a risk here, that he -- as he becomes more extreme in his comments, I think there is more of the party that is resistant to him, the problem is no one has yet consolidated those voters and now dividing among Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio. Eventually, they will consolidate and Trump will fair, I think, a greater challenge when more of that -- more of that bloc of the party is mobilized against him.

CUOMO: Only thing I would said that I don't think it's his supporters don't care about the facts. It's which facts they care about and whose reckoning of them they want to recognize. And Trump is the man they believe.

CAMEROTA: You're so right. Facts are more of our fingertips now, because everybody can go on the Internet.

Ron, Errol, thank you. Great to see you guys.

At the top of the hour, we will be speaking live with Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush about all of this and more. Stick around for that.

Michaela?

PEREIRA: Hey, did you guys know tomorrow is Thanksgiving?

CUOMO: What?

PEREIRA: Yes, I know. Time to get that pumpkin pie ready. The holiday Thanksgiving, a holiday obviously bring a lot of rush with it as well. It's going to shift into high gear in the face of this worldwide travel alert from the State Department.

We are going to check in live at New York's LaGuardia Airport, see how things are faring there this morning.

Stay with us.

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[06:46:53] PEREIRA: Well, millions of Americans will be heading to their Thanksgiving destination today. We should warn you, you should expect longer security lines and more thorough passenger screenings.

Our Jason Carroll is live at LaGuardia Airport, set to be a busy place, especially, given the fact that there is this worldwide alert being issued.

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Michaela, note to self if you ever want to travel through LaGuardia Airport, do it about this time, 6:45, because take a look right now, things are working and moving really smoothly.

I have seen the security line here in the past, Michaela it has extended all the way down that hallway, look where it is right now. Things moving along just fine at this point. Flights are on time. Despite that worldwide travel alert.

TSA, as you know, has doubled down on security, combine that with being one of the busiest travel days of the year, which we're expecting later on this afternoon, expected to get very busy out here.

I should tell you -- between now and Sunday, 3.6 million people expected to fly. I should also point out, Michaela, that travel alert does not say that U.S. citizens should not fly or avoid travel, it just simply says use extra vigilance when you're out in public transport, using public -- out in public spaces.

Also want to point out that the TSA did not specify what types of added security measures we will see, but some of the things that we can expect to see when we are out here, more random searches, more bomb-sniffing dogs, more of those swabs when you're going through the line for explosives. Some of the best advice -- some of the best advice we give every single year when we are out here, use extra time when you're heading out to the airports -- Michaela.

PEREIRA: Just arriving in the last second, like Cuomo does, you have to be build in a little extra time for that extra screening.

Jason, we will check back with you to see if things stay that wake nice and calm there at LaGuardia.

Meanwhile, weather is such an important part of this picture as well. Does Mother Nature seem poised to pose some headaches for holiday travelers?

Meteorologist Jennifer Gray taking a look at the forecast. Looks like a little bit of moisture headed in some directions.

JENNIFER GRAY, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Yes, absolutely. Half the country looking good for the holiday weekend. That's the east side. The west side is where we could see some problem.

Salt Lake City picking up some snow today. Dallas picking up the rain, so we could see some delays there. But all in all, not so bad today.

The bigger problems are going to come tomorrow into Friday. We have this front setting up. That's going to sweep across the country. Not only bring rain and snow, it's going to bring ice and that's where we could see the biggest problems anywhere from the Texas Panhandle all the way up through the Southern Plains.

And it's really going to linger Thursday even nothing Friday evening and parts of Saturday. We could see half an inch to three quarters of an inch of ice in Wichita. That's going to make travel very, very difficult. And that's going to last through much of the weekend.

However, Chris, the best part about it, the forecast for the Macy's parade, in the 60s, you will barely even need a coat.

CAMEROTA: Fantastic.

CUOMO: Very nice. I hear the best (ph) finally starting to run along the south shore, you know how that makes me feel, Jen. Have a very good Thanksgiving to you.

GRAY: You, too.

CUOMO: She can fish, by the way. Oh, yes, she fish.

All right. We're going to take a break. When we come back, we have news for you. Remember Russia saying this was a stab in the back? Well, now, their authorities are saying something more.

[06:50:01] They believe this is what you see on your screen, a planned provocation. They also say what they are going to do about it. We will have that for you right after the break.

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CUOMO: We have new information for you out of Russia. The foreign minister calls the shoot down of a military plane by Turkey a, quote, "planned provocation," OK? But very surprising is that he also says, Minister Lavrov, that they are not planning to go to war with Turkey over it. That's what Russia says for now.

Now, what will it do? Well, it's certainly deploying surface- to-air missiles in Syria, what will that mean going forward?

Thomas Pickering is the former U.S. ambassador to Russia and the United Nations, among other places. He is now with the Brookings Institute and he joins us.

Happy Thanksgiving to you in advance. Thank you for joining us, Mr. Ambassador.

Let me ask you something, a little bit of a different context. President Obama constantly gets criticized in comparison to Vladimir Putin because Putin is strong and Obama favors negotiation and vacillation.

But isn't that exactly what we are seeing from Putin? Somebody just shoots his plane out of the air, he says it was intentional but says, well, I'm not going to go to war.

[06:55:01] Very reasoned response from him, isn't it?

THOMAS PICKERING, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA: Chris, I think what we need to do is look at Mr. Putin's objectives. What he wants to achieve is clearly the preservation of President Assad, the use of his power and his approach to deter Turkey from continuing to help ISIS and the people who are against Assad.

This was, in every sense of the word, not a provocation. It was clearly a Russian aircraft flying Turkish airspace after multiple warnings. The Turks were justified in acting in self-defense.

He has now got a lemon and he is turning it into lemonade. He is going to try to use this to develop greater pressure on Turkey and greater pressure on the situation in Syria to his advantage to meet those two objectives.

CUOMO: Well, just because someone's in your airspace and you might have certain legal justifications doesn't mean you should shoot them out of the air. You know, would you think that Putin could be playing this more to his advantage in terms of being a victim, couldn't he?

PICKERING: Well, Putin loves to be a victim but he also likes to be the tough guy. So we see both of those here. And those are important to him, both in his domestic pursuit of popularity in Russia and keeping Russia hanging together with him and in his international objectives in Syria and I think that's what we are seeing play out here. The good news, obviously, is that they are not entering into a kind of new state of conflict. They don't need that, neither do we, neither do the Turks.

And the president's call with president Hollande yesterday for conciliation, Hollande's visit, I think, are hopefully going to put this in a position where it doesn't become a major issue slowing down the very important discussions on Syria. Those are the kinds of things here I think have to be foremost in U.S. objectives and foremost in the direction of the area.

CUOMO: All right. So, help us understand this a little bit deeper because, look, nobody wants more escalation. I don't want to spend my Thanksgiving hustling over to Ankara to cover some type of enhanced conflict there. But if his -- what does it say about what his objectives are Putin, if he is willing to overlook having a jet shot out of the air and how can the coalition use that intensity of purpose to meet their own aims?

PICKERING: Well, Chris, I am going to say this, from turkey to turkey is not your fate this weekend, I think.

CUOMO: Good.

PICKERING: I think the really interesting piece here is that Putin is handling this in a way that channels it in a direction I think we can take advantage of, first, preserve the talks.

Secondly, do everything we can to keep him from continuing to hit our friends and allies, because he needs them. In the long run, the future of Syria isn't dependent on Mr. Assad. Mr. Assad has no military chance of achieving victory.

Mr. Putin knows and understands that and off and on over the year years, the Russians have said it is not Assad. It's a new government in Turkey, who's going to head it? We don't know, he doesn't know. But we need to have a set of relationships with the future of Syria, not with the past in this regard.

And Putin ought to be concerned, as I think he is about ISIS, but it's not yet his top priority. So, point one, let's help him make that his top priority. Point two: let's get him thinking about the future of Syria and what his long-term interests are. Point three: continue to use the process that's been engaged to make that happen.

If he develops some additional leverage, let's see whether we can coincide in using that leverage for the common objectives, which he ought to share but hasn't yet made clear that he will, but the conciliatory remarks, in my view, are a move in the right direction and mirror what the president and President Hollande had to say here yesterday.

CUOMO: Strange that his plane getting shot out of the air may have actually moved him closer to the coalition in some bizarre way.

Ambassador Thomas Pickering, thank you very much for the perspective as always and the best for Thanksgiving to you and your family.

PICKERING: Thank you, Chris, and the same to you.

CUOMO: All right. We are following a lot of news this morning. We have headlines for you. Let's get to it.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CUOMO: Unrest erupting in Chicago. Hundreds of protesters take to the streets.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Officer Jason Van Dyke faces first-degree murder charges.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He abused his authority. I don't believe the force was necessary.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If he's on the ground, why do they need to shoot anymore?

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Turkey, like every country, has a right to defend its territory and its airspace.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Was the Turkish military justified in shooting it down?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A new manhunt under way across Europe for this man.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Believed to have dropped off one of the bombers who attacked the Stade de France.

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Something going on in the mosques, there's something we don't know about.

BUSH: The country is too good for this. This whole idea of just preying on people's deep-seated fears about what the future looks like.

CAMEROTA: Presidential hopeful Jeb Bush joins us live.

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo, Alisyn Camerota and Michaela Pereira.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CAMEROTA: Good morning, everyone. Welcome back to your NEW DAY. We will be speaking live with Republican candidate Jeb Bush in just a few moments.