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New Day Saturday

Freed U.S. Reservist Arrives in Florida; Pilot Killed in Virgin's SpaceShipTwo Disaster; Maine Judge Eases Nurse's Quarantine; Mexico Frees U.S. Marine Reservist; Obama Makes Pitch to Women Voters; Will Jeb Bush Run in 2016?

Aired November 01, 2014 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

ANA CABRERA, CNN ANCHOR: Top of the morning to you. And thank you for being here. I'm Ana Cabrera, in for Christie Paul this morning.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Victor Blackwell. Seven o'clock here on the East Coast.

And the breaking news this morning, a U.S. Marine Corps reservist now back in his home state of Florida. We understand he's back in his home after 214 days in a Mexican jail. Sergeant Andrew Tahmooressi his plane touched down a short time ago in Miami. Here he is. He flew out early this morning from San Diego.

But we do have the earlier video, new in to CNN, Tahmooressi, we see him here, being driven last night to the border post in Tijuana. You see him getting out of this white SUV and then going into and coming out of the customs building before crossing into California. Tahmooressi was jailed in March after crossing the border with three guns in his truck.

National reporter Nick Valencia has the latest.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK VALENCIA, CNN NATIONAL REPORTER (voice-over): Marine reservist, Sergeant Andrew Tahmooressi, is back in United States, after seven months in a Mexican prison. That's him hugging family and friends at a San Diego airport after crossing the border. Here's a picture with him and his mother Jill and a group shot with some of the people who worked to get him released, including former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, California Congressman Ed Royce, Arizona Congressman Matt Salmon and family friend Montel Williams.

Tahmooressi, an afghan war vet, being held on weapons charges, was set free by a Mexican court order on Friday.

Congressman Royce says he was released because the Mexican prisons didn't have the resources to treat his PTSD.

REP. ED ROYCE (R), CALIFORNIA: On that basis, to reunite him with his family with the knowledge that now he's going to get the treatment he needs.

VALENCIA: He was arrested in March at a Tijuana checkpoint, after Mexican customs agents found three firearms in his truck -- a pistol, shot gun and semiautomatic rifle and some ammunition. Tahmooressi says he took a wrong turn on the California side of the border into Tijuana and accidentally crossed.

(on camera): Tahmooressi's mom said the Mrine parked in this lot. He made a left, right out of here, completely missing that sign that says Mexico only. No USA return. Straight on to that on ramp right into Mexico.

How are you doing, Andrew?

(voice-over): In May, I spoke to him on the phone from the Mexican prison he was being held.

(on camera): What have things been like for you there in Mexico, Andrew?

SGT. ANDREW TAHMOORESSI, MARINE RESERVIST (via telephone): Not very good in the beginning. For like the first month, things were not that -- not that good at all.

VALENCIA: And now with the ordeal behind him, Tahmooressi is expected to resume his treatment in Florida.

MONTEL WILLIAMS, FAMILY FRIEND: This experience for him in the last seven months is in a lot of ways has re-traumatized him. And this is almost like let's call it prison PTSD. So, they really are going to need a break for just a little bit of time.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BLACKWELL: Nick Valencia is joining us now.

Nick, what are we hearing from the Mexican government, if anything?

VALENCIA: Well, we're not hearing much. We heard the news initially from the Mexican court. They said they withdrew the accusation. We haven't heard from the highest levels, the president's office, attorney general's office.

And joining us, I want to get to our interview on the phone, joining us exclusively is the spokesman for the Tahmooressi family, Jonathan Franks.

Jonathan, thank you so much for taking the time with CNN this morning. How are you?

JONATHAN FRANKS, TAHMOORESSI FAMILY SPOKESMAN (via telephone): Good morning. Thanks for sticking with us all this time, Nick.

VALENCIA: So, Jonathan, you know, this has been a months' long ordeal, weeks of hard work recently there on the ground. A lot of people don't know what it took to get Andrew out of prison. Take us through it.

FRANKS: Well, I think it was clearly coming to a head over the past 10 days. You know, the -- this -- it's worth emphasizing that this release was consistent with Mexican law. Their system is predicated on rehabilitation and the -- their equivalent of the attorney general filed what's called a non-accusatory conclusion in which they recommended to the judge that the charges essentially be withdrawn and that he'd be released to seek treatment in the United States, consistent with the opinion of both the prosecution and the defense psychiatrist.

So, you know, his mother, the congressman, the governor, Montel, everybody, has been in San Diego for the better part of a week. A lot of false starts along the way and they took a fair amount of kind of work to get to the point where it was. We got word about 3:00 Pacific Time that the judge had entered his ruling and they got him out of the prison very quickly thereafter.

VALENCIA: Jonathan, why now? I mean, people are watching this, they've been following this story, literally seven months to the day that he was arrested March 31st on that border. He is now released from El Hongo Penitentiary in Tecate, Mexico. Why now?

FRANKS: I think the case had reached a procedural posture where this was possible and the -- you know, his latest attorney did an excellent job of getting it there. Certainly the hearing held by the United States Congress focused the attention on PTSD and, you know, I think it came to a head. And, you know, a number of factors pointed to the fact that this could not go on much longer without creating a significant diplomatic rip.

VALENCIA: You talked to Andrew, you were on the flight with Governor Richardson and Montel Williams, Jill Tahmooressi, what was the mood like there on that plane? How is Andrew doing today?

FRANKS: You know, I think it's setting in. I think they need a little bit of time to reconnect as a family. It was unfortunate to see somebody parked up the street jump out of a car and try to videotape what should have been a private moment.

You know, I think he's thrilled to get -- it did not become clear to him that this was happening when it was happening. It was very sudden. Thrilled to be able to get to reconnect with friends, family, but they're going to need a little bit of time and space. They certainly did not sign up to be in the media spotlight.

VALENCIA: This is an extraordinary moment for the Tahmooressi family. A big congratulations to you, and all the work that you guys did to get him out of the Mexican prison.

That's Jonathan Franks, the spokesman, for the Tahmooressi family, thank you so much for taking the time with CNN.

FRANKS: I would say one of the hallmarks of this ought to be that there were, you know, the chairman -- the Republican chairman of the full committee, the Republican chairman of the subcommittee, and the former Democratic governor of new Mexico, also former U.N. ambassador, this was a very closely coordinated effort over the past four days, and very much a bipartisan one which everyone was working as one, which I think we'll let Andrew speak for himself about what believes in the coming time, but it certainly -- that is consistent with what his mother has consistently expressed on Facebook about how the family believes that this should have been -- it's not a political issue.

It's an issue of a young man that served his country, served it well, and made a wrong turn that he is hardly the only person to make the exact same wrong turn and quite frankly hardly the only one to have done it the way he did and have what he had in the car. So, you know, he's hardly unique in that respect and it's not hard to miss that turn. I drove it this week.

So, you know, he's I think delighted to be back. There was certainly a lot of smiles. It was a very powerful moment when he got out of the car, and, you know, I think thrilled to be home and hoping to find some semblance of normalcy without necessarily sharing every single waking moment with television cameras as he kind of reacclimates to life. He has, after all, been in custody, in isolation, for seven months with people watching him 24/7.

VALENCIA: Jonathan --

FRANKS: He just needs a little bit of space and couldn't be any more grateful as he's becoming aware of how many people both in the press and quite frankly the American public stood by him the whole way.

VALENCIA: Jonathan, thank you so much for taking the time. Our best to the Tahmooressi family, 214 days in a Mexican prison, Andrew Tahmooressi back at home -- Victor, Ana.

BLACKWELL: All right. Nick, so many questions still to be answered from the Mexican government. Hopefully we get that. But we do understand he needs some time just to reacclimate and exhale in Florida. Nick, thank you so much.

VALENCIA: You got it, guys.

CABRERA: Happy for him.

Well, now, to that disaster over the Mojave Desert. This morning, one pilot is dead, another seriously injured after Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, which is designed to take tourists into space, had a catastrophic failure during a test flight yesterday.

Now, eyewitness photos, you can see here, show the moment the space plane detached from what you could call the mother ship and moments later the picture of it breaking apart in the sky. This is what it looked like, and then on the ground.

Debris scattered all across the desert. This is the second air disaster this week involving the commercial space industry. You might recall on Tuesday, this unmanned rocket exploded just after takeoff in Virginia. Yesterday's accident, a huge blow to space tourism, $500 million space plane was expected to take paying customers, including many celebrities, more than 60 miles above the earth into outer space, and that was set to start as early as next year.

This morning, Virgin Galactic's owner Richard Branson we're told is on his way to the Mojave, expected to arrive any minute now. He's expressed sympathy to the families of the pilots. And he also tweeted this, "All our thoughts are with the brave pilots and families affected by today's events in Mojave."

It's unclear exactly what happened but officials with the NSTB and FAA are investigating.

We're going to be talking with aviation crisis consultant, David. He is standing by to discuss what this means for the future of the space industry, as soon as we take a quick break. We'll be right back.

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CABRERA: Welcome back.

Let's discuss more now on the two space industry aviation accidents that happened this week including the one that involved a test flight for as space tourist spaceship.

I'm joined now by aviation crisis consultant David Fuscus. He is also the former head of communications for the House Transportation Committee.

David, thanks so much for spending some time with us.

DAVID FUSCUS, AVIATION CRISIS CONSULTANT: Yes.

CABRERA: A tough week for the space industry, two tragedies in one week. How does this impact the future of American space exploration?

FUSCUS: Well, what it really means is that space is hard. It's difficult. And it can also be dangerous. But the commercial space industry is going to persevere. It's going to move forward and I think Richard Branson said very clearly that Virgin Galactic is going to move forward on this. But make no mistake it's a difficult thing to do.

CABRERA: How long do you think it will be until we know what went wrong in terms of the investigation?

FUSCUS: Well, it could either -- we could either know very quickly or it could take a little bit longer.

So, the National Transportation Safety Board is on site. They're conducting the investigation. They'll bring in the appropriate outside experts they need to look at everything and determine what happened but they'll come to a conclusion. My guess is it will probably somewhat quickly.

CABRERA: I know Virgin Galactic is calling it a serious anomaly that happened up in the sky. We mentioned there was another accident or incident that happened earlier in the week, an unmanned rocket in Virginia that exploded shortly after takeoff. They called that a catastrophic failure.

Is it just coincidence that we saw these two accidents in one week, do you think?

FUSCUS: Space travel is dangerous. It's inherently dangerous. The forces that it takes to break the pull of gravity from the Earth is absolutely tremendous. And let's not forget that rockets, they're not like jet engines that you can, you know, ramp up and ramp down. Once you light them, they go. It's a tremendous amount of force and sometimes things unfortunately do happen.

CABRERA: We mentioned that there were about 700 people who had signed up to be among the first space tourists, including several celebrities, Leonardo DiCaprio, Justin Bieber, Ashton Kutcher. Do you think this impact that happened yesterday will impact people's desires to now go into space?

FUSCUS: I think for people to go into space on a routine basis as tourists, that the technology is going to have to be proved to be routinely safe and that is a pretty tough bar to achieve. So, are people going to cancel their tickets? We'll see. But it's going to be a long road for Virgin Galactic.

CABRERA: There still are so many unknowns that I really thought was interesting that Virgin founder Richard Branson told CNN, he said, quote, "Unless you risk something, the world stays still." So, he has every intention of moving forward.

David Fuscus, thank you for your time this morning.

FUSCUS: Happy to be with you. Thank you.

CABRERA: And make sure to stay with us all morning as we wait for Sir Richard Branson to arrive at the crash site in the Mojave Desert.

Now, a Maine judge eases a nurse's Ebola quarantine.

BLACKWELL: I'll take it, thank you.

But how do the folks in her small town feel about that decision? And legally, was the judge's decision the right call?

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BLACKWELL: Twenty-one minutes after the hour now.

Portland, Oregon, is the latest city in the U.S. dealing with a potential Ebola case. A woman who recently arrived there from West Africa was whisked to Providence Milwaukee Hospital yesterday after developing a fever of more than 102 degrees. Now, doctors treating her say they still cannot be sure if she has Ebola.

Let's go to Maine now where a nurse who defied an Ebola quarantine in a standoff with state officials is claiming victory after a judge ruled in her favor.

Let's bring in CNN's Alexandra Field who has been following this story from Fort Kent.

So, Alexandra, Kaci Hickox is free to move about now, but how is Fort Kent reacting to that?

ALEXANDRA FIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Victor, you know that all over the country and right here in Fort Kent, the debate has been incredibly polarizing what to do with people who have returned from the hot zone of West Africa. What we've seen here is that some have voiced the fact that they have some fear and they have concern, but we've also seen a tremendous amount of kindness towards Kaci Hickox. She's a member of this community. We've seen people go up to that door, drop off flowers, drop off the pizza.

But I think how the community reacts at this point will have to do with how Kaci Hickox governs herself given her freedom, so to speak. Yes, she is able to move about, she could go to work. She could go to a restaurant. She could go to a movie theater.

But we haven't seen her do any of those things. We've seen her take a bike ride. We've seen her go for a walk. She hasn't gone into town or a public space.

When the judge issued this new order which lifted most of the restrictions on Kaci Hickox, he acknowledged the fact that there is a very present fear about the spread of Ebola and that it may be irrational but he says it's there and he says that Kaci Hickox should guide herself accordingly. She came out here, she spoke to the cameras. She has reiterated repeatedly that she feels the policies on quarantine should be governed by science and fact, not based on fear. So, she feels this order is a victory.

As for what she'll actually do, she's taking it minute by minute. And so far, she has stayed close to home. She says she really doesn't want to make people feel uncomfortable. She's a health care professional. She doesn't want to scare people. She just wanted to bring this attention to light and again, she's claiming this as a win.

BLACKWELL: All right. Alexandra Field there in Fort Kent, thanks.

And, Ana, so many legal and ethical questions here.

CABRERA: And beyond.

Let's discuss.

Joining me now, criminal defense attorney and HLN legal analyst, Joey Jackson and Dr. Joseph McCormick with the University of Texas School of Public Health.

Joey, let's begin with you. We know while she doesn't have to quarantine herself anymore, she does have to abide by a few guidelines, she has to monitor herself, she still has to notify public health and talk to them in terms of coordinating her travel. She needs to continue to monitor and if she does see a symptom needs to let everybody know immediately.

So, would you consider these new guidelines a legal win for Kaci Hickox?

JOEY JACKSON, HLN LEGAL ANALYST: Good morning, Ana.

Well, you know look, this is an issue where you have the public's interest and it's immediately in conflict with the individual's interest to move about freely. And the judge did temper his decision, Ana, in the way that you noted. Of course, she has to submit to direct monitoring which means her temperature will be taken and they will follow up and evaluate her every day to ensure that she's OK.

And, of course in addition to that, she'll coordinate the travel with local officials and if she becomes symptomatic, she'll, of course, notify them then.

But I think, Ana, you need bright line rules in these instances. And because of the fact that we don't know a lot about Ebola, I mean they say we do, but the reality is people are dying, and when people are dying, I think a 21-day quarantine so as to ensure that the public health is protected, I think is merited and warranted.

The judge viewed it differently and therefore, he issued his order trying to balance those priorities. But I think, at the end of the day, as long as the public is protected, we're all OK.

CABRERA: Dr. McCormick, what about that idea, maybe the people who think, why not be better safe than sorry? Why not, you know, go forward with a mandatory quarantine?

DR. JOSEPH MCCORMICK, DEAN, UNIV. OF TEXAS SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH: You see that the judge has used some wisdom and some understanding of the recommendations, the new recommendations, of CDC, and moreover the science.

I would disagree that we don't know about Ebola. We know a lot about Ebola. We know, for example, people who sleep in the same room in Africa with Ebola -- symptomatic Ebola patients don't get infected unless they've had direct contact. So, we know an awful lot.

In this case, the judge has looked at the risk level that Ms. Hickox fits into it, which is some risk as a new CDC guideline describes, and that requires active, direct monitoring. That means somebody goes out to her house, takes her body temperature and asks her about signs and symptoms of Ebola and she's been complying with that.

The issue was, should she be under total quarantine and neither the science nor the recommendations require that. In fact, if you read the new recommendations, they suggest just what the judge has done, which is to negotiate with -- if someone has been consistent and compliant with the active direct monitoring and they're asymptomatic, then negotiate with them about the level of movement, the level of activity in the community.

And in this case, he said look, go out to the community is fine, but stay within -- don't go nearer than three feet in the public area with individuals. And it's a recognition as Mr. Jackson has suggested that the fear is there irrational though it may be.

And so, I think this judge has really exercised a lot of wisdom in both understanding the needs of Ms. Hickox and the relatively irrational fears of the community.

CABRERA: Joey, we know the governor still isn't happy with this. So, could this ruling be reversed?

JACKSON: Well, you know, there will be an additional hearing and there will be additional information at that time. And, of course, her temperature will continue to be taken and if she develops symptoms, then, of course, the ruling could change.

But the bigger problem here is that there is no known cure. That, of course, is in the petition. That's in all the supporting documents which this legal argument is based upon.

And, therefore, it's a problem and are we going to be in a position where we're negotiating with people when they come back, stay away from the public, you can stay home, directly monitor?

The fact is, what if, after the direct monitoring, you are out, you do develop symptoms, you become symptomatic, and at that point, you vomit or something else and therefore it poses a danger to other people?

And so I just think ha we need bright line rules. I'm not one for fear-mongering or irrationality, but at the same time, we have to recognize and respect the rights of people who are going over and doing wonderful work in assisting others who have this disease, but we have to protect the public here.

CABRERA: Well, the conversation certainly continues all around the nation, all around the world.

Joey Jackson and Dr. Joseph McCormick, thanks both. And we hope to talk to you soon.

JACKSON: A pleasure, Ana. You be well.

MCCORMICK: Thank you.

BLACKWELL: And, of course, we're continuing to follow the breaking news this morning. Sergeant Andrew Tahmooressi back in his home in Florida, now free from a Mexican jail. There he is, just landed in Florida. New pictures. You see there with him, former governor and former ambassador, Bill Richardson, in the shot as well, others on that plane as he landed in Florida.

The question, why did the Mexican government let him go and why did they let him go now? We'll try to get answers and tell you what we know.

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ANA CABRERA, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back. Thanks for being here. I'm Ana Cabrera. Just keeping the seat warm for Christi this morning.

VICTOR BLACKWELL, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Victor Blackwell. Good to have you with us.

Let's get to the top story this morning. A U.S. marine reservist back in his home state of Florida after spending seven months in a Mexican jail.

That new video here just in to CNN. It shows Sergeant Andrew Tahmooressi, you see him here, getting off the plane, last hour at Opa-locka Airport. That's in Miami-Dade County.

The red eye flight arrived from San Diego.

CABRERA: Tahmooressi was driven last night from the border post in Tijuana where he got out of a white SUV there, he went into a customs building, before heading into California and then Florida. So, a long travel for him.

BLACKWELL: Long trip. Tahmooressi was detained after he crossed into Mexico with three guns in his truck. The veteran has insisted he took a wrong turn and accidentally crossed the border.

Let's talk more about this now. Joining us is retired Lieutenant Colonel Bob Maginnis.

Colonel Maginnis, thank you so much for joining us this morning.

President Obama, he never really spoke about the case. The highest federal official who really weighed in on this was the secretary of state, John Kerry. Should the president have gotten involved and solved this potentially sooner?

LT. COL. BOB MAGINNIS, U.S. ARMY (RET): Well, that's possible, Victor. The reality is that, you know, the young man's free today because there was good diplomatic activity happening behind the scenes.

Often, your president doesn't have to be the front person. I think in this case, the hero or the person that made this happen, of course, is governor -- former Governor Bill Richardson.

You know, Bill has a great deal of experience, U.N. ambassador. He actually negotiated for release of people with North Koreans and the Cubans and Iraqis and Sudan. He's done a lot of this. Of course, having been a governor there in New Mexico, right next to the Mexican border, he understands a lot of the issues there.

So, I think that it was a combination of economic pressure.

Keep in mind, Mexico is our best trading partner. We have millions of people that cross that common border every day. And this was becoming somewhat of an embarrassment, I think, for both countries, that, you know, people were saying let this young man go. He's suffering from PTSD, an Iraq or rather an Afghanistan war veteran. So, the Mexicans found a way to, I think, save face. They let him

goes because ostensibly. They couldn't treat PTSD. And, of course, you know, it was beginning perhaps to threaten some of the tourism because it was giving the Mexican tourist industry a little bad name, I think, here and, therefore, it kind of backfired a bit on them.

BLACKWELL: You talked for just a moment there about the PTSD. We know from his family that he has this unresolved, untreated PTSD there. The reports that he tried to commit suicide with a light bulb while there, being incarcerated. Gives us an idea of the treatment and support that Sergeant Tahmooressi will receive over the next few days and weeks?

MAGINNIS: Well, Victor, as a lot of Americans know that follow the veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan, the overpressure from IEDs, improvised explosive devices, have an impact on your brain and also, you know, create nervousness.

We know from Tahmooressi's own testimony in his own statements that he felt insecure. That's in part why he carried the weapons and mistakenly went into Mexico and got caught. But he's going to get psychiatric help, he's going to get the type of encouragement, the type of background assistance that he needs. You know, sitting in an -- incarcerated in a Mexican prison is not the best of all circumstances here.

BLACKWELL: Yes.

MAGINNIS: He will get a lot of attention, perhaps some additional assistance, some drugs that will help him calm his anxieties and the like. That's the sort of thing that he'll get in this country because we understand the veterans dilemma, the veterans legacy from being in tough places like Afghanistan.

BLACKWELL: Yes, I said days and weeks. It may go on for months and years to try to treat the scars that we cannot see.

Retired Lieutenant Colonel Bob Maginnis, thank you so much.

MAGINNIS: Thanks, Victor.

CABRERA: Politics, the battle for control of Congress is three days away. President Obama making a closing pitch to a critical voting block, women. Why they could be the key to which party wins the Senate majority on Tuesday.

Also, will Jeb Bush run for the White House in 2016? Yes, we're getting ahead of ourselves but there is a lot of talk about this, this morning. We'll talk about it here. That's ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CABRERA: Hi there. Mortgage rate inched up this week. Take a look.

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CABRERA: It's down to the wire in the battle for the control of Congress.

Republicans need just six seats to take control of the Senate. They already have control, of course, of the House. Of course, the midterm elections are just a few days away.

Here are a look at the key races we are watching: Colorado, Kansas, Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina expected to be close, could flip. But some Democratic candidates are keeping their distance from President Obama.

CNN's Erin McPike has more on that and the president's pitch for women voters.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ERIN MCPIKE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): President Obama making a last-ditch effort to push women to the polls, hoping to keep Republicans from controlling the Senate.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We've got to raise our voices to basically do away with policies and politicians that belong to -- in a "Mad Men" episode. "Mad Men" is a good show but that's not who we want making decisions about our work place these days.

MCPIKE: But he made those remarks in Rhode Island, where there's no Senate election Tuesday. He hasn't campaigned in the eight states with the most competitive races. With an approval rating of 45 percent, Republicans are using him to drag down Democrats.

OBAMA: I'm not on the ballot this fall. Michele's pretty happy about that. But make nose -- make no mistake these policies are on the ballot.

MCPIKE: In an election with no overriding single issue, Republicans say it's President Obama's incompetence on those policies, most recently on Ebola and the ISIS threat, driving women away.

AD NARRATOR: In January, President Obama refers to the Islamic state as a jayvee team. Days later, the Armed Services Committee holds a hearing on new global threats. Senator Kay Hagan, absent.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mark Begich pretty much voted with the president on everything.

MCPIKE: These four Democratic women who have spent months distancing themselves from the president, could be key to his last two years in office, especially if Michelle Nunn in Georgia pulls off an upset.

But this Republican woman in Iowa --

JONI ERNST (R), IOWA SENATE CANDIDATE: I'm Joni Ernst, I grew up castrating hogs on an Iowa farm.

MCPIKE: The state that catapulted Barack Obama to the White House and kept him there, could give the GOP the upper hand in a final chapter of his presidency. (END VIDEOTAPE)

MCPIKE: And now, Erin is joining us live from Washington this morning.

Erin, clearly, that women voting block is the much coveted prize for either party here. But Republicans are saying the war on women, quote/unquote, is played out?

MCPIKE: Ana, that's right. And, you know, usually Democrats poll much higher with women, but this year, the Republicans have been able to shrink that gap considerably and both parties are finding this year that what has worked for Democrats in the past few election cycles, and things like suggesting that it's Democrats only who can promise access to contraception for women -- well, that's just not cutting through anymore, Ana.

CABRERA: I know we've been watching several different race in the past week and things seem to be tightening in some places and widening in others. Where are the closest races today?

MCPIKE: Well, Ana, you were just showing the map there and with the three seats, the GOP is basically certain to pick up, that's Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, Republicans will then have at least 46 certain seats after the election. Now, most expect Mitch McConnell will win in Kentucky on Tuesday night.

Then, there are nine toss ups right now. They'll need another five after that for Senate control. Republican candidates are running ahead in Arkansas, Louisiana, and even Colorado and Iowa, and if they can win all of those, they get control.

Now, Alaska is hard to poll and may be later into Wednesday before we know the outcome there. Then in North Carolina we talked about that in that piece. Democratic Senator Kay Hagan is keeping close with her Republican challenger and in New Hampshire, that's closing but the Democratic incumbent is ahead there. The big surprise is that the Democrat is polling ahead in Georgia.

We're also looking at Kansas. That's a wild card, and the independent there, Greg Orman, could ultimately threaten Republican hopes of gaining control if he upsets incumbent Pat Roberts. But, of course, Louisiana and Arkansas as you know could go to runoffs and we may not know who controls the Senate for at least a month.

CABRERA: This could get very interesting what you just pointed out is why every vote counts. So, people, go, cast your ballots.

Erin McPike in Washington, thanks.

MCPIKE: Of course.

BLACKWELL: Bush versus Clinton, this song a little bit of history repeating. We've seen it before. We may see it again. Coming up, we're going to speak with a man that says it depresses him to think there would be a third Bush in the White House and he says it's distinct live un-American.

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BLACKWELL: Bush versus Clinton. Yes, we've heard it before. And there is speculation we'll hear it again, because the former Florida Governor Jeb Bush maybe will run for president in 2016 and could face off with, of course, Hillary Clinton.

Historian and columnist for Britain's "Daily Telegraph", Tim Stanley, and CNN political commentator Ben Ferguson are with me now.

Tim, I want to start with something you wrote on CNN.com. Let's just put it up on the screen. The title is, "Why Jeb Bush Shouldn't Be President".

You say it depresses you that people are talking about Jeb Bush because, quote, "It's that the thought of a third Bush in the White House feels distinctly un-American." Expound for us.

TIM STANLEY, COLUMNIST, BRITAIN'S DAILY TELEGRAPH: Actually, it's even un-British, the thing we wouldn't tolerate in our country. For a democracy to really be effective, it has to be constantly going through renewal. It has to be throwing up new political personalities.

And the idea you could have a third Bush like this, suggests that there is some kind of stagnancy in American politics that it can't go elsewhere for talent.

Two stats put that in perspective. If Jeb Bush ran on the Republican ticket and won, first of all, that would mean there had not -- that every single successful Republican ticket since 1928 had had either a Nixon or a bush on it. And secondly, if Jeb Bush runs and wins, that would mean since 1980, in every single decade, there have been a Bush in the White House.

Now, that to me suggests that the Republican Party and American democracy in general is not producing fresh talent if it has to rely on a small number of families to generate its presidents.

BLACKWELL: All right. Let's go to you, Ben. What do you think?

(LAUGHTER)

BLACKWELL: You start with a laugh so that gives me something.

BEN FERGUSON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes. I know. I love it that he's talking about like even in Britain, they wouldn't do this. You guys have a queen for goodness sakes.

BLACKWELL: There is a monarchy.

(CROSSTALK)

FERGUSON: So, yes, I'm not exactly worried about looking at it from that perspective. I will say this: if the American people, they decide they want Jeb

Bush, who by the way, is different than George Bush and is different than his dad, look at the difference in the two Bush presidencies. They were drastically different. George Bush 43 was more conservative. They had different foreign policies even. Look at how they both dealt with Iraq very differently. These are two different people.

So, if Jeb wants to run, you shouldn't be disqualified which is exactly what democracy is, because of your last name.

So, I think the voters, in this country, specifically in America, are smart enough to decide if they want somebody and they are smart enough to actually understand that each person is different and you shouldn't be disqualified because of your last name. That would actually be un- American to use one of your terms. It would be un-American to say that only two people from your family could be the president of the United States of America. That would be incredibly unfair, so I like that the he might run.

BLACKWELL: Let me challenge you on that, because even we heard from former First Lady Barbara Bush when she says she doesn't want her son to run. Am I the only person who thinks this is a Jedi mind trick? I mean, that's the only way you make this look like a sacrifice and not a birth right. If you have the mother saying, "Please, son, don't," and then, you have Jeb Bush saying mother, "I must for the good of the country"?

FERGUSON: You know, I think she said it because I truly believe she's exhausted from the interviews and the bashing that comes when you're a president of the United States of America. You're going to have about 50 percent of the country that can't stand you. And they write about it every single day.

She experienced it with her own husband. She experienced it with her son, and I think it was a lot tougher to watch your kid get beat up than maybe your husband who you're in the same room in.

So, I think, for her, "I don't want to deal with it anymore." I can't blame her. She's taken a lot of heat, or her family has taken a lot of heat. I can totally understand where as a mom she says, I don't want any part of this again.

BLACKWELL: Hey, Tim, you know, there's some questions how well the Republicans will do with the Latino vote. We know former Governor Bush speaks fluent Spanish, married to an Hispanic woman. Would that demographic help and that would be one of the strongest arguments to nominate Jeb Bush?

STANLEY: Yes, that is very important. In 1998, he won the governor's mansion with something like 61 percent of the Hispanic vote. His wife is Hispanic, and also George W. proved very good at getting Hispanic votes, too. The Bushes are clever at that.

But I think it's extraordinary to suggest that it's a triumph of the American dream that the third rich white guy in a row from a family can get in the White House. It really isn't. It's about --

FERGUSON: You don't like him because he is a rich white guy.

BLACKWELL: Well, they have all been rich white guys except for one.

STANLEY: But if I can stress, I'm not making a partisan point here. I'm not making a partisan point here.

I don't like the fact that Hillary Clinton might run either, I'm not happy about that. Because the idea of Bush v. Clinton suggests that things aren't moving forward. All that promises is another eight years of partisan gridlock. We know what the lines will be, we know what the script will be a. This is just be a re-run of the 1990s and the 2000s, and you just feel like, why can America not move on from this?

FERGUSON: I think that it's incredibly --

BLACKWELL: We've got to wrap it there, guys.

FERGUSON: I think it's simplistic.

BLACKWELL: We have to wrap it there.

FERGUSON: Can I say this?

BLACKWELL: Go ahead.

FERGUSON: I think it's simplistic for you to think because two last names are on a ballot that none of the issues change. Read the newspapers. The issues are different than they were even yesterday, much less from the '90s.

BLACKWELL: I'll guarantee you this, if this is a Bush v. Clinton race, you won't see those last names on the campaign signs. It will be Hillary v. Jeb because they don't want people to think we've done this before.

Tim Stanley, Ben Ferguson, thank you both.

FERGUSON: Thanks.

BLACKWELL: Programming reminder: get all of your election night cover on CNN next Tuesday, starts at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

Ana?

BLACKWELL: We will be there. That's for sure.

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