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Foley's Mother Says U.S. "Let Jim Down"; ISIS Sent Message Through Beheadings; Hillary Clinton's Favorable Poll Numbers; Tight Senate Race in Iowa; Gen. John Allen Picked to Lead Coalition Against ISIS; ISIS Battle Defining Moment in Obama Legacy; Palin Family Involved in Brawl.

Aired September 12, 2014 - 13:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: National Security Advisor Susan Rice disagreed with Diane Foley's assessment. Here's what she said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SUSAN RICE, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR: But I and others in the U.S. government worked very hard with Diane Foley and her family to try to be supportive, to try to provide what information we could. And, of course, as you know, the president ordered a very daring and very well-executed rescue operation when, on the only occasion we had what we thought was fresh and we hoped actionable intelligence about the whereabouts of Jim Foley and the other hostages. Unfortunately, they were no longer there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: The beheading of Jim Foley sent a signal throughout the world: The Islamic State, also known as ISIS, or ISIL, it's different from some other terrorist groups. Their tactics are even more brutal and barbaric.

Let's bring in my next guest, Bobby Ghosh, a managing editor of "Quartz."

Bobby, in an article last night in "Quartz," you talked about how is or ISIL is worse than al Qaeda. But you also have an even more disturbing comparison.

BOBBY GHOSH, MANAGING EDITOR, QUARTZ: Yes. I said in that article, ISIS was some sort of an unholy combination of the Nazis and the Khmer Rouge, as well as al Qaeda. They are much larger than al Qaeda was. They have more organizational discipline and they also have the appetite for genocide that we saw both with the Nazis and the Khmer Rouge.

KEILAR: And the death of Jim Foley, it really galvanized American public opinion. It showed Americans in a way -- I think it focused them on this group and what this group is about. Just yesterday, also, we have the CIA saying that there's a number of people fighting for ISIS and it's more than three times previous estimates. Do you think the U.S. has waited too long to tackle the threat here?

GHOSH: Yes, I'm afraid I do. And quite a lot of other people feel that the U.S. has waited far too long. But politics is politics. It has taken a long time to convince people from both sides of the aisle in Washington and to convince the country at large. We can, at this point, sort of argue about whether we should have done this a couple of years ago but it's heartening at least that a decision has been made and now the task is at hand and we need to get going pretty quickly. Because as we've seen with ISIS, they are able to take advantage of the time that we've given them and they move very, very quickly. So there's not a lot of time to waste now that we've made the decision.

KEILAR: Bobby, we heard from President Obama on Wednesday night and he's talking about the U.S. really backing up the government of Iraq more militarily, diplomatically, also helping Kurdish fighters as well as strengthening its ties with moderate Syrian rebels, but also this coalition of countries to take on ISIS. Do you think it's going to be effective? Is it enough?

GHOSH: No, it's not enough. It's a start. Now for John Kerry to sort of go and dot all the "I"s and cross all of the "T"s to get the Arab countries in the Middle East, not just Arab countries but also Turkey, get them into the coalition and figure out whose role is what and how much they will contribute. Right now, everyone seems to be willing to sit on the sidelines and applaud a little bit while the U.S. does all of the hard work. That is not the way forward. That is not sustainable. The U.S. has shown that it is willing to take the lead, as somebody must, but all of these other countries must contribute in more substantial ways and give their blessing to an American operation.

KEILAR: What does it take, in the end, to defeat ISIS?

GHOSH: There's a military piece and then there's a political and social piece. The military piece is quite clear. They have to be driven out from their safe havens. People that they are terrorizing have to be liberated. The social and political piece -- again, and this is where the Arab states will play a bigger role -- is to take the oxygen away from them, to defeat the ideology. This is a robust ideology that has survived for quite a long time, for decades. And although Western forces have tried to defeat the leader in the battlefield, it has not really been defeated in the hearts and minds of some people in the Arab world and the Muslim world. That is the role to fight back against the propaganda. That is the role for the Arab states and Muslim leaders.

KEILAR: That is the hard part, too.

Bobby Ghosh, thank you so much.

GHOSH: Any time.

KEILAR: If you would like to donate to the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation, find information at JamesFoleyfund.org. We also have a link on our website. Just ahead, Hillary Clinton ready to return to Iowa for the first time

in six years and she's bringing some impressive poll numbers with her.

And Sarah Palin and her family attend a party that turns violent. The Palin's alleged involvement in the confrontation just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: Hillary Clinton gets ready to return to Iowa for the first time in six years as the Democrat to beat in 2016. Meantime, a crucial Iowa Senate race is shaping up to be extremely close.

Joining me to discuss that and more is senior political analysts, Ron Brownstein and David Gergen.

Gentlemen, thanks to both of you for being with us.

I'm heading to Iowa this weekend to observe what is going to be an historic weekend as Hillary Clinton and her husband headline Senator Tom Harkin on Sunday. But I want to talk about a new poll that we have. It's a CNN/ORC poll and this is the backdrop for her visit. She's 53 percent and Vice President Biden at 15 percent. Other potential names in single digits there. These are the poll numbers.

What does that mean, David, for her as she goes to Iowa at the top of that list?

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Oh, it's a wonderful sendoff for her. To go out there with Bill Clinton, that's going to create a lot of hoopla.

To answer your question, Brianna, if this had been Joe Biden going out there, would you be going out to Iowa this weekend? I'm not sure you would be.

KEILAR: Maybe not.

(LAUGHTER)

GERGEN: So when she and Bill Clinton go out together, we're in the buzz phase of the campaign. It's going to create lots and lots of buzz.

KEILAR: I also wonder, Ron, we're looking at, for instance, other polls show that this is closing. She's heads and tails ahead of other Democrats but the momentum after her book tour is in the downward direction on her approval.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: She's coming back into the focus. People are looking at her again as a political figure rather than as secretary of state who was above politics. As a result, you're brought back into the 50/50 divide that we are living with in the country. It's very hard for anybody to sustain approval much above a little over 50 percent in this country anymore. And I think the reality is that's how she will be seen. As she was seen more as a Democratic standard bearer, the 60 and 65 percent approval we saw in the past is going to go away.

Separate from that, the book tour was not an arousing success. It's a reminder that it's hard to roll out of bed and get back into national politics after being out of the field for a while. So the lesson is she needs more exposure to voters, more exposure to the press and she needs to get her legs ready to run for president. It's not an easy thing to do. I think that's the clear lesson of that book tour.

KEILAR: Get out of the bunker is sort of the lesson?

GERGEN: Yeah, but it's also true, Ron, that having a tour with a book is one thing. Having a tour with Bill Clinton is something else.

BROWNSTEIN: Yeah.

GERGEN: It will create a lot of buzz to be out there with her husband.

KEILAR: It certainly will. They are expecting attendance to be maybe second to 2007 when all of the Democratic contenders in that huge Democratic fight were out there.

So the other thing, we're going to see Bruce Brailey there. Some may say, who is that guy? He's running, who is in a tight race with a Republican. He's running against Joanie Ernst. He's trying to win the seat that Harkin has vacated.

When you look at this matchup, Ron, how big of a deal is this in terms of what it means for Democrats across the board?

BROWNSTEIN: It's really a race they can't lose. This poll was an improvement for him and a sign he's recovered after trailing in a series of missteps and gaffes earlier. If you think about the Senate, the battle for the Senate has three tiers. It's the seven Democratic- held seats voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. Those red-state Democratic seats are the core of the vulnerability. And the next year, Iowa, New Hampshire, Democratic leading at presidential level but still vulnerable this year. And finally, you have three, Kansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Republican-held states where there may be opportunities for Democrats. If Democrats lose many states in that middle tier, it's going to be probably impossible for them to hold the Senate because the first year of the seven is tough enough.

KEILAR: And looking at Iowa, David, I loved how you said --

(CROSSTALK)

KEILAR: Go on.

GERGEN: Yeah. Brianna, there's sort of a ghost lurking here and that's Obama's poll numbers. Ron has pointed out, I think very importantly, important insights. And when an incumbent president is above 45 percent in a state, the Senate candidate in an off-year election can do pretty well from his party. But if he's below 45, then the Senate candidate from his party may not do very well. And a lot of these states, as Ron as pointed out, Obama is down close to 40. That's the bad news.

And the interesting question now becomes, is he going to get a ball out of this new initiative against ISIS, or does that, too, become part of a lot of controversy?

KEILAR: Yeah. We'll be watching to see that.

Gentlemen, thanks for joining us.

I like how you said, David, that Iowa has not been kind to Hillary Clinton. That's a somewhat diplomatic way of putting it.

(LAUGHTER)

This is going to be a big weekend, going back to where the wheels came off, and we'll see how she handles it.

Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, Brianna.

GERGEN: Thank you.

KEILAR: So will the battle against ISIS be the defining moment of the Obama presidency? This is what we were just talking about? We'll have an in-depth look at the implications that this fight could have on the president's legacy, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KEILAR: The White House has named retired general, John Allen, to lead the international effort against ISIS. But before the general can get to work, he needs a solid coalition in place with roles clearly defined and, of course, that could take some time.

Here to talk about those challenges, Candy Crowley, the anchor of CNN's "State of the Union"; and our chief congressional correspondent, Dana Bash.

I want to start with you, Dana.

It's interesting, we heard Bobby Ghosh, he was just on, and he's saying, you're hearing the president talk about this coalition but, at the same time, there are a lot of nations happy to sit by while the U.S. does a lot of the heavy lifting here. How much arm twisting are we expecting to see from the administration really trying to get some of these countries in line?

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's what you're seeing Secretary Kerry doing right now. He's sort of globe trotting trying to get some help. And from my perch on Capitol Hill, one of the main reasons why the president is asking for a vote to give him this narrow authority to train and arm Syrian rebels isn't so much because they aren't doing it, they are. They are doing it in a covert way. They want to do it in an overt way. And a big reason is to send a sign to allies in the region, the U.S. means it, so, please, come on board, be more free flowing in your support.

KEILAR: Move it from the CIA to the DOD?

BASH: Exactly. Right.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN ANCHOR, STATE OF THE UNION: And because, in the region, they've been a little unhappy with President Obama because they thought they had a plan a couple of years ago and they feel, rightly or wrongly, that he backed away from it. But also let's remember, sometimes a coalition of the willing, as we saw with George Bush, turns out, well, yeah, we'll send some troops but they can't carry weapons?

KEILAR: And they can't --

(CROSSTALK)

CROWLEY: And they can't be in the war zone. And -- so let's just see what -- because what are Americans worried about? Who is going to spill blood here? Right? That's when it really begins to totally matter. And that's where you see who really is willing and who isn't.

KEILAR: And how does Iran factor into all of this?

CROWLEY: Yeah. It's funny, I talked to Senator Dianne Feinstein the other day, who said, I really think we should be talking to Iran because they could be helpful. And that was startling to me. But the truth of the matter is we're already providing air support for Iraqi troops who are being helped by Iranian troops. So there's a common enemy there. So it's already happening. And will it cause folks to be upset here? Yes. But at the moment, the target is ISIS.

BASH: Exactly. And that's just one complicating factor, Iran. The other is the mission going to do some things to help Assad in Syria, the leader of Syria, who is this whole reason why all this started in the first place, the enemy of the U.S. There's so many complications. It's so incredibly difficult.

But on Iran, it is fascinating, Candy, the hawks in Congress -- Dianne Feinstein is one of them, Lindsey Graham, others -- saying, of course, Iran is not our friend, but you got to do what you got to do, and the most important thing is to get ISIS and that may coordinating with our enemies.

CROWLEY: I think Assad is the different story. I think if they said, we need to talk to Assad, everyone would go, "No." But somehow, with Iran, I think it will be a "look the other way."

KEILAR: Let's talk about the role of Congress here. We had Senator Thune on and I was talking about this.

You asked the speaker yesterday, Dana, what's going on? Why isn't the House going to move forward with the vote? The speaker basically said that's not how we normally do things. I heard Thune say that. I said, come on, isn't that kind of like a lame sort of "pass the buck" kind of thing, and he said, you know, he stood by it. Explain this to us.

BASH: What is most striking is, week in and week out, at John Boehner's press conferences, he's talking about how Congress is a co- equal branch. This is a president who has gone awry. OK, well, this is an example of where you have a clear constitutional role, so why not do something? Why not be aggressive? His answer was, in his 24 years in Congress, this is a request that comes from the White House. It doesn't originate in the House or the Senate. Whatever.

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: I mean, if you want to do it. And you want to have a role, which on a bipartisan basis most people do, they say, yes. I don't need to tell you this. A big reason is because we have something in November called an election.

KEILAR: Yep.

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: We'll just probably do it after the November election.

KEILAR: I want to ask you, before we go, about the president's legacy in all of this. He's the president who is supposed to be the president who got the U.S. out of two wars. He seems very conflicted about all of this. How does it fit into his legacy?

CROWLEY: We'll see. There are legacy moments you know are there. 9/11, you thought, whoa, this will frame George Bush's not even one- year-old administration. This is less clear to me. This is a legacy that maybe we'll know in 10 or 15 years. The president is already saying this may take another president to finish. So, you know, we're not talking about boom, go in, and then we're done. I just don't think it's totally clear what the legacy will be. Political legacy? I'm really interested in how the midterms come out and how this, if at all, plays into the numbers.

KEILAR: Do you think it will play?

CROWLEY: It's hard to know. Some races are so close almost anything can sway it. We saw those poll numbers that said most people think the president has been too weak rather than too strong.

KEILAR: Does this help?

CROWLEY: Probably not enough.

KEILAR: We'll know soon, won't we?

(LAUGHTER)

Dana, Candy, thank you so much.

Next, Sarah Palin and her family. And Dana and Candy will stay with me for this one. They go to a party and a huge brawl breaks out. Details of the fight and THE Palins alleged involvement just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN.

KEILAR: Police in Anchorage, Alaska, are investigating a big brawl at a party attended by Sarah Palin and her family.

We have Candy and Dana back with us. And we're joined by CNN national correspondent, Suzanne Malveaux, who is following this story.

What happened here?

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Oh, my gosh.

(LAUGHTER)

It's a gift that keeps on giving. We tracking on several reports from local and Anchorage media and bloggers as well, report that the Palins were allegedly involved in this brawl that took place at a joint birthday party last Saturday. According to these reports, who cite eyewitnesses at the party, Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and former vice presidential nominee, along with her husband, Todd, and their children, Bristol, Willow and Track, pull up in a Hummer together. It was Todd's 50th birthday. He was one of those that the party was celebrating. And according to the reports from the party, Track sees his sister's Willow ex-boyfriend. They get into an argument. There's a lot of screaming. And then allegedly the other sister, Bristol, starts swinging. Sarah Palin allegedly yells at this point, "Don't you know who I am?"

So we wanted to sort all of this out. We reached out to Anchorage Police Department, who gave us a rather vague statement, but it does confirm the following. "On Saturday, September 6, 2014, just before midnight, Anchorage police responded to a report of a verbal and physical altercation taking place between multiple subjects outside a residence. At the time of the incident, none of the above parties wanted to press charges and no arrests were made. Alcohol was believed to have been a factor in the incident and some Palin family members were in attendance."

As you can imagine, we're reaching out to the Palin family, see if they've got any reaction to reports.

This is what we notice. This is Sarah Palin's Facebook page, which made no mention of the party the day before. The melee, according to police, happened just before midnight outside the party residence. Palin posted these two pictures. It says, "I was traveling yesterday so I'm posting Todd's 50th birthday greeting a day late, which is fine because the handsome guy barely looks a day over 50."

So I don't know.

(CROSSTALK)

(LAUGHTER) KEILAR: So I don't even know where to start with this.

(LAUGHTER)

So let's say -- OK. Sarah Palin -- I mean, one thing is, we have seen her Tea Party juice diminish a little bit. Does this matter politically or is this just sort of a reality TV kind of moment playing out?

(CROSSTALK)

KEILAR: Bingo --

(CROSSTALK)

MALVEAUX: You have the reality show and then the reality of her life.

KEILAR: Doesn't she have a new show coming out?

MALVEAUX: Yes, she does. She has her own channel as well.

(CROSSTALK)

KEILAR: Ding, ding, ding.

BASH: I'm going to admit it right now. I would watch it. Wouldn't you?

KEILAR: I would totally watch it.

(LAUGHTER)

CROWLEY: Maybe.

(LAUGHTER)

I don't know. For work purposes, of course.

KEILAR: What else?

CROWLEY: For Sarah Palin and the Tea Party and her support there, I think there's some people, this is going to be media making too much, and that works for that group. And the rest of the country has moved on. So I think you look at a wash here.

KEILAR: Do you think anyone cares, Suzanne?

MALVEAUX: You know --

KEILAR: Besides the tabloid aspect of it?

MALVEAUX: The interesting thing is that nobody has pressed charges, right? This thing could easily go away. Everybody said we don't want to have anything to do with this. There's not a paper trail necessarily. If they said alcohol is involved, maybe -- it's not really going to be something that anybody is going to pursue. They say it's an open investigation.

I will say, however, that -- you know her even better than I do, having covered her for so long. If she wants media attention she knows how to get it. The last time we saw her was a couple years ago after the White House Correspondence Dinner behind the scenes with Celo Greene. She knows how to reach out to people.

(CROSSTALK)

MALVEAUX: She knows how to use the media.

BASH: People who are interested, who like her, want to see it, and other people don't like her want to see her, too.

KEILAR: We could go on forever about this.

(LAUGHTER)

CROWLEY: Let's not.

(LAUGHTER)

KEILAR: All right. Suzanne, Dana, and "Let's not" --

(LAUGHTER)

-- Candy, thank you so much.

Remember you can see CNN's "State of the Union" with Candy Crowley every Sunday at 9:00 a.m. and noon eastern. This weekend, the White House chief of staff will join Candy. We'll tune in for that.

That's it for me. I'll be back at 5:00 eastern on "The Situation Room."

NEWSROOM with Randi Kaye starts now.

RANDI KAYE, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, everyone.