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Pentagon Plans to Send Militants to Anbar; General Dempsey Calls for Advisers in Anbar; U.S. Encourages Moderate Sunnis to Rise Up; GOP Strategy Tie Democrats to Obama; Senate Control

Aired October 31, 2014 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Right now, CNN's learning that plans are underway to send American military advisers into the Iraq's troubled Anbar Province. Why Anbar? Why now? We're going to delve into that and the new information coming in.

Also, four days from a vital election here in the United States and President Obama is in the state of Rhode Island. We're going to take a closer look at the -- what role the president is playing and not playing in these key races.

And back from captivity, the American, Jeffrey Fowle, tells CNN why he took his bible with him to North Korea and then left it behind in a hotel room.

Hello, I'm Wolf Blitzer. It's 1:00 p.m. here in Washington, 5:00 p.m. in London, 2:00 a.m. Saturday in Pyongyang, North Korea. Wherever you are watching from around the world, thanks very much for joining us.

This just coming in. We begin with new information in the battle against ISIS militants in Iraq, and we're getting word of a new Pentagon plan to potentially send American military advisers into a very, very volatile region, the Anbar Province. Leaders there have been pleading for help for months to stop the relentless march of ISIS.

Our Chief National Security Correspondent Jim Sciutto is with us right now. He's working his sources. What's going on?

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, this would take those U.S. advisors beyond the relatively safe area of Baghdad in Erbil to one of the most volatile places in the country, that is in Anbar Province. The military still developing this plan right now.

But that province has been a scene of some fierce fighting, including, recently 400 Sunni tribesmen there challenging ISIS were killed in just two days this week. This would expand the military's so-called train and assist mission beyond Baghdad and Erbil, to cities that have been relatively shade (ph) from ISIS to Anbar Province of which ISIS now controls some 80 percent. This plan would still require the president's approval.

A senior U.S. military official tells me, quote, "that this will better enable Iraqi security forces to protect themselves and to take the fight to ISIS which is something that Iraqi forces have not shown themselves capable of doing on their own."

Here's how the chairman of the joints chief of staff, General Martin Dempsey, described the need in Anbar Province just yesterday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. MARTIN DEMPSEY, CHAIRMAN, U.S. JOINTS CHIEF OF STAFF: What I can say is that's why we need to expand the train, advise and assist mission into the -- into the Anbar Province. But the precondition for that is that the government of Iraq is willing to arm the tribes. By the way, we have positive indications that they are but we haven't begun to do it yet.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: And I'm told that the exact location that U.S. advisers would serve in Anbar has not yet been determined. There are cities and towns still under Iraqi military control. This would, as in Baghdad and Erbil, put them at brigade headquarters, not on the front lines of combat. But, certainly, Wolf, when you take them out of Baghdad and Erbil, which are tremendously well-protected cities, and put them into Anbar which is seen as some of the fiercest fighting, you are putting them into greater danger, those U.S. military advisors, than they've been so far.

BLITZER: Yes, Anbar Province, you remember what was happening in 2005, 2004, 2006, the battles were brutal in Fallujah and elsewhere. And now, it goes back in -- it sounds, to me, like this is a bit of mission creep, something that the U.S. didn't want to see happen in Iraq. But what are your sources telling you?

SCIUTTO: Well, they're saying that these would not be combat forces, right? Although, as we know -- and they will not be. They're not going to be firing guns on the front line here. But the fact is they will be closer to the danger here because of all that is going on in Anbar Province today. Can you call it mission creep? I mean, listen, from the beginning here, we have gone outside the original lines of what this mission was going to be.

Remember, it started as a humanitarian mission to protect the Yazidis then expanded far beyond. And it started as something intended purely to protect U.S. military personnel and counselor personnel in Baghdad and Erbil. But, of course, now, we have a broader campaign, not just in Iraq but in Syria. So, whether you call that mission creek, certainly the mission has expanded from its initial -- original outlines.

BLITZER: All right, stand by. I want you to join us in the conversation. I want to bring in two experts who know this situation quite well. Joining us from Los Angeles, CNN National Security Analyst Bob Baer. He's a former CIA operative and also the author of several books, including a brand new book entitled "The Perfect Kill." There you see it up on the screen, "21 Laws for Assassins." I recommend his book. Also joining us, retired U.S. Lieutenant Colonel James Reese, our CNN Global Affairs Analyst, former Delta Force officers. Let me start with you, Colonel Reese. You hear that the U.S. is about to send military advisers, potentially, assuming the commander in chief signs off on this recommendation, into Anbar right now. What does it say to you?

LT. COL. JAMES REESE, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, chief -- Wolf, here's what it shows me is, you know, Anbar Province really is a huge province but what we're really talking about is the Euphrates River Valley that goes up to Pelusia, Ramadi, out to (INAUDIBLE.) One of the things we have missed since we left Iraq is a shared reality between Washington, CENTCOM, and the guys on the ground. And what we have to do is get that shared reality and a foundational logic back.

And every commander out there, from a company commander all the way to the CENTCOM commander, wants to know what is ground truth out there. And having our guys sit in Baghdad or Erbil really doesn't give us what's ground truth out there. And before we can make those assessments and see what we have to do next out there, we've got to push guys out. You know, it's advance force operations, some reconnaissance, and working with the Iraqi's out there to really find out what we need to bring to the right out there to help them.

BLITZER: And what about you, Bob Baer? When you see what's going on with the U.S. military advisers, as Jim pointed out, basically in Baghdad or in Erbil, but now they may be heading to Anbar, places like Fallujah, Ramadi. And a lot of us remember what was going on there, brutal fighting, back in 2005, 2006. What does that say to you?

ROBERT BAER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, Wolf, the problem is that they are going to be going with Iraqi troops, essentially Shia troops. And for the locals, it's going to look like we've taken sides with the Shia. There's not much we can do about this. The major tribes in Anbar around Fallujah and Ramadi are not in touch with the embassy or the military. They're afraid to come out. They have a separate view. They don't trust the government in Baghdad.

So, assigning our forces or our advisers to Shia units going into those areas is, I think, at the end of the day, going to be counterproductive. But there's not much that we can do, at this point, because if Anbar completely falls to ISIS and they get to the point where they surround Baghdad, then we're in a lot worse trouble. So, we're just really trying to put our finger on the dike, at this point.

BLITZER: Yes, they are only about 12 miles or so from the Baghdad International Airport. Jim Sciutto, we heard General Dempsey say they're getting positive additional signals from the new government in Baghdad but that government hasn't signed off on this either.

SCIUTTO: Well, it's interesting, they said a couple of things. One that there has been some forward progress this week, in terms of Iraqi security forces challenging ISIS. And, yes, they've won a battle just to the south of Baghdad. But, at the same time, we saw what you and I were talking about yesterday, these Sunni tribesmen getting slaughtered and the Iraqi forces in the area purely in defensive positions. But the other bit of progress that the Pentagon is citing now is that Iraqi forces and the Iraqi government are open to the idea of arming these Sunni militias which will be a first step towards creating an Iraqi national guard. So, you bring the Sunnis into the battle here. But, clearly, to make that happen, they think they may need this additional step of having U.S. advisers on the ground to help marshal it through.

BLITZER: A lot of us remember, and Colonel Reese, you remember it I'm sure as well. One of the reasons that first so-called Sunni awakening in the Anbar Province, why these Sunni tribesman were going along and working with the U.S., working with the Iraqi government is because they were getting paid lots of money. The CIA was dumping millions and millions of dollars in their laps and they liked the money.

Right now, here's the question, is the U.S. ready to start dumping millions and millions of dollars into the hands of these Sunni tribesmen? Because you know ISIS, they have hundreds of millions of dollars. They're paying off these Sunnis big time.

REESE: Yes, Wolf, I mean, I don't know if we're ready to do that but I think it's going to be, you know, the reality of what's going to come. I've been in and out of Anbar Province myself for the last 11 years. As a matter of fact, just three months ago.

And after we left back in 2011, every time I'd go back out there to see the folks that I knew, you know, you'd always get, hey, Colonel, where did everybody go? Where did everybody go? And that was mostly because the economics aspects we brought into Al Anbar really brought everything together, both the Shia -- the Shia and the Sunnis out there came together.

The beauty we have now is with the green berets that are going to be heading out there, there are still folks out there that have relationships with some of those former Sunni tribal leaders out there and they'll have to restart those relationships and really start to bring the money back out to get the Sunnis involved.

BLITZER: Yes, where is that money going to come from? Do you have any idea, Bob Baer?

BAER: Well, I'd like to say one thing. Don't forget, in the awakening, it was the military -- the U.S. military that put this together. It was very successful. We turned back to Al Qaeda. But when we left in 2011, we left these people alone with the promises unfulfilled. It became a political failure and the question now is the -- are the Sunni going to trust us, that we abandoned them in 2011? I think that's the big question. And in trying to turn this around, it's going to be very difficult for those advisers that are going out there right now.

BLITZER: It certainly is. All right, Bob Baer, Colonel Reese, thanks very much. Jim Sciutto, thanks for the news as well.

The Syrian regime getting help on the battlefield from Afghan mercenaries supported by Iran. Money isn't their only motive. We're going to tell you what's inspiring them to join the fight for Bashar Al Assad. That's coming up.

And control of the United States Senate here in Washington coming down to a few very close races. The midterm elections only four days away. We're going to highlight some of the high-stake contests.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: It's shaping up to be a political cliffhanger with only four days to go before the midterm elections here in the United States. The stakes are high, control of the United States Senate and the balance of power in Washington. The Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take over the majority in the U.S. Senate. Whether they can get there depends on fewer than a dozen seats right now where the races are too close to call.

A key Republican strategy is to capitalize on President Obama's sagging approval rating. By the way, the president is in Rhode Island today. Our Chief Congressional Correspondent Dana Bash examines what's called the Obama factor and other dynamics shaping the midterm races.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): From Kentucky --

SEN. MITCH MCCONNELL (R), KENTUCKY: A new face to vote for our Barack Obama.

BASH: -- to Kansas --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A vote for Greg Orman is a vote for President Obama.

BASH: -- to Colorado, --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's voted 99 percent of the time with President Obama.

BASH: -- cross the country, Republicans are trying to take control of the Senate by tying Democrats to an unpopular president.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's a pleasure to meet you.

BASH: New Hampshire candidate barely speaks a sentence without saying incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen votes with the president 99 percent of the time.

SCOTT BROWN (R), NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE CANDIDATE: Remember, the president said it a couple of weeks ago, he's not running but all of his policies are on the ballot. I agree with him. And he also said --

BASH (on camera): I bet you do.

BROWN: Yes, I absolutely do. UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Nice to see you again.

BASH (voice-over): Shaheen gives the quintessential 2014 Democratic response.

BASH (on camera): Is the president a drag on you here?

SEN. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D), NEW HAMPSHIRE: This race is not between the president and Scott Brown. This race is between me and Scott Brown.

BASH (voice-over): Still, even Democratic strategists admit Obama's negatives help make New Hampshire's Senate race neck in neck, now one of nearly a dozen dramatic too-close-to-call contests from coast to coast. North Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kansas, Iowa, Colorado, Alaska. To be sure these tight battles are much broader than Obama, they're about government failures in general, Washington not doing its job.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Senator Kay Hagan, absent (ph).

BASH: A big reason incumbents in both parties are getting pummeled from missing committee hearings, from Democratic Kay Hagan in North Carolina, to Republican Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Mitch McConnell, who has been absent from nearly every committee meeting for the past five years.

BASH: And challengers emphasize they are far from Washington sensibilities, like Republican Joni Ernst (ph) in Iowa.

JONI ERNST (R), IOWA SENATE CANDIDATE: I am the one that remains connected to my community, my roots and Iowa.

BASH: Democrats are trying to hold on to the Senate majority by turning out voters in all these critical contests who tend to stay home in midterms, especially single women. It's why Iowa Democrat Bruce Braley paints his female GOP opponent as too extreme.

REP. BRUCE BRALEY (D), IOWA SENATE CANDIDATE: She introduced a constitutional amendment in the Iowa Senate to ban all abortions.

BASH: Voters are so disgusted with Washington, the ultimate weapon is trashing both parties. It helps independent Greg Orman tie up the race in ruby red Kansas against a Republican.

GREG ORMAN (I), KANSAS SENATE CANDIDATE: Both Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid have been far too partisan for far too long.

BASH: But many voters are so turned off, it's hard for any candidate to break through. In South Dakota, Democrat Rick Weiland got creative, turning to song.

RICK WEILAND (D), SOUTH DAKOTA SENATE CANDIDATE (singing): So I'm running for the Senate, but I ain't a big deal. I don't have an RV, just my automobile. But, hey, no one's bought me.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Nice song. Don't know if it's going to help him in South Dakota.

BASH: Probably not.

BLITZER: But we'll see what happens, though, there. Dana is with us right now.

The money that's being spent is these races, enormous right now, isn't it?

BASH: That's right. The estimate is $4 billion. That's billion, with a "b," dollars at the end of the day. That's what will be spent on this election.

But let's just put that into perspective. Today's Halloween. The National Retail Association says that consumers will spend $7.5 billion -- $7.4 billion on Halloween alone. So, that gives it a little bit of perspective. But, you know, on Halloween, we get costumes, we get candy. What are voters going to get? And really what are these candidates going to get? Four days out, it's still neck in neck in so many of these races. So they're not really getting a lot of bang for their buck. Everything is still locked up.

BLITZER: Well, we'll see what happens Tuesday night. You'll be with us throughout the night. Thanks very much for that report, Dana.

Just ahead, we're going to take a closer look at some of these very close races that could decide who controls the United States Senate.

And a third grader, get this, he gets fed up with the negative campaign ads. Her advice to the candidates, when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Election Day here in the United States only four days away and now the balance of power in the United States Senate is clearly at stake. As we mentioned, Republicans need just a net gain of six seats to get a majority and three of those seats are considered pretty likely wins. So that would leave three competitive races for the GOP to win and take control of the U.S. Senate. They already have control of the House of Representatives. Five of the closest contests are in Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina. So it looks like the fight for control of the Senate could go down to the wire on Tuesday.

Let's take a closer look at some of those close races right now, races that will determine the balance of power in Washington. Our chief political analyst, Gloria Borger, is here with me in Washington, our senior political analyst Ron Brownstein is joining us from Los Angeles.

Let's start with one of the states that the Democrats are pinning their hopes on, Georgia. The most recent CNN/ORC poll shows Michelle Nunn, the Democrat, the daughter of the former Senator Sam Nunn, slightly ahead of Republican David Perdue, 47 to 44 percent.

Ron, this could clearly end up in a run-off. They would have to wait until January if neither of the candidates gets 50 percent plus one of the vote.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Right, Wolf. Well, the way I understand the big picture is that Democrats are defending seven seats in states that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. All seven of those are vulnerable to a significant extent (ph). Democrats have the best chance of holding in North Carolina and Alaska.

And then you've got the next tier, four Democratic-held Senate seats in states that voted both times for Obama, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Michigan. The first three of those are vulnerable. Democrats are there - going to -- if they lose anything in that second tier, the only way they hold the Senate is by taking some of the currently Republican-held seats in red states that voted against Obama, and that is Georgia, Kansas and, to some extent, Kentucky.

So, Georgia is difficult for Democrats. It's a state that's growing demographically in their direction. The president's approval rating among white voters there is under 30 percent. In normal times you say it would be uphill. But David Perdue has some vulnerabilities that has kept Michelle Nunn in the game. For Democrats, Georgia and Kansas are really in the same category. It's their one opportunity to offset losses that exceed the six that Republicans need to win control

BLITZER: Because I think you agree, Gloria, the Democrats are in trouble right now.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: Oh, yes.

BLITZER: They could -- they could pretty easily lose control of the United States Senate.

BORGER: Yes. And I think you'd have to say the odds are right now that they would lose control of the Senate. One of those races that we're talking about that the Democrats thought they were going to have sort of easily is Mark Udall in Colorado. Colorado is a state, Wolf, that has been trending blue. You see our poll numbers there. Colorado's a state that has been trending blue. It's a state that any presidential candidate that's a Democrat would like to have as blue in 2016.

What Mark Udall decided to do was use the war on women issue. You know, obviously, Democrats enjoy a great advantage when it comes to women voters. Cory Gardener, his opponent, has been very conservative on women's health issues. They've been running more than half of their ads, Wolf, on women and it has backfired with women. They've actually lost some women supporters.

And they also have a big question here about mail-in ballots. Everybody in the state of Colorado can mail in their ballot and we don't know how that's going to work. I was out in Colorado. I was on a college campus in Boulder. Students were saying to me, where do you get stamps? Not quite sure about how to do that. They're not quite used to mail-in things. BLITZER: Snail mail as they call it.

BORGER: That's right. That's right. And Obama's unpopular in the state, Wolf, sort of in the 30 percent, 38, 39 percent range. So that doesn't help Mark Udall either.

BLITZER: That's a big problem for Udall, the incumbent Democrat.

Ron, some of the campaign ads, as you know, have gotten pretty dirty. An eight-year-old girl in North Carolina had some advice for the candidates there. Her advice, play nice. Listen to this from this third grader, Carson Park.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CARSON PARK, THIRD-GRADER: I thought about that I couldn't really vote because they were saying bad things about each - about each other. So I can't really vote and you don't know what they're really like.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: She wrote a letter to the North Carolina Senate candidates. She said, "why aren't you talking about ways that you will help us? All I hear your ads where you say mean things about each other."

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BLITZER: Hey, she's pretty smart, this little girl.

BROWNSTEIN: From the mouth of babes. Look, the reality is that in modern politics, given the negative impression most people have about the political system and the outcome that it produces, negative messages are most likely to be believed than positive ones. But there's a larger point here, I think, about why we are seeing so much negative advertising, which is that we are seeing our congressional elections being fundamentally transformed in our generation. It's a nationalized quazi (ph) parliamentary election.

This is not about who the senator is from North Carolina or South Dakota or Georgia. This is about who is the majority in the U.S. Senate. And the reality is, that in modern politics, the name on the back of the jersey, the individual candidate, matters less than the color on the front of the jersey, which party they stand for in most cases. There is always exceptions, but we are seeing a hardening pattern where each party is having a hard time winning Senate seats in the states that usually vote the other way for president. Twenty-six states voted both times for President Obama. Democrats now have 43 of their 52 Senate seats. Twenty-two states voted both time against him. After this election, Wolf, Republicans could have 40 of those 44 Senate seats. That's the reality and that's why you are seeing so much money and I think so much of these negative ads as well.

BORGER: I think both parties are nationalizing this election, Wolf, because, you know, you have Republicans who are saying President Obama's unpopular, let's run on his incompetence and government and tie every Democrat to that. Democrats are nationalizing the election as well, as Ron is pointing out, what - you know, on women's issues, for example, trying to expand that gender gap to their advantage, talking about middle-class issues they thin work for them. The one thing Democrats aren't doing to nationalize this election, which I argue they could be doing, is to talk a little bit about the economy, but they're not doing that because people aren't feeling whatever recovery we're having and they're afraid of a backlash on that.

BLITZER: The richest people are feeling it.

BORGER: Yes. Yes.

BLITZER: The middle class, maybe not so much.

BORGER: Yes.

BLITZER: All right, thanks very much, Gloria and Ron. Guys, we'll have a lot to talk about Tuesday as these elections get going.

Afghan recruits leaving the Taliban ranks to join the war in Syria. Their motive, money and hatred for America. CNN tracks down the recruits in Afghanistan. We have an exclusive report. Stay with us.

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