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ISIS Hostage Deadline Passes; No Deal Without Proof of Life; Gas Explosion at Mexico Hospital Kills at Least Seven; ISIS Requires Prisoner Swaps; Hezbollah-Israeli Tensions

Aired January 29, 2015 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, I'm Wolf Blitzer. It's 1:00 p.m. here in Washington, 6:00 p.m. in London, 8:00 p.m. in Istanbul, 1:00 a.m. Friday in Jakarta. Wherever you're watching from around the world, thanks very much for joining us.

We start with the passing of another ISIS set deadline. In a new message, ISIS set sundown as the deadline for the proposed prisoner swap that passed several hours ago. Jordan has said they would be willing to release an imprisoned Al Qaeda female terrorist in exchange for a Jordanian fighter pilot who crashed in December. The Japanese journalist being held hostage was also expected to be part of the swap. The proposed swap was supposed to take place at the Al-Alcala (ph) Crossing, that's along the Syria-turkey border.

Let's get the very latest on the delayed swap, what's going on. Our Jomana Karadsheh is joining us. She's at the Jordanian capital of Amman. Jomana, is there a specific holdup? What are you hearing from your Jordanian government contacts?

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, what we're hearing, Wolf, from the Jordanians is what they are saying publicly and that's very little. They're saying that the holdup, so far, is the issue of proof of life. They say, for some time now, they have been asking for proof of life through those indirect channels they have been using to communicate with ISIS to try and secure the release of the pilot. So far, they say they have not received a proof of life. Until they have evidence that he is alive and well, the Jordanians say they will not be releasing Sajida Al-Rishawi. Something that they said they still will do.

But here's the other issue, Wolf. The Jordanians are proposing releasing Sajida Al-Rishawi in exchange for the pilot, but the demand from ISIS has been a direct swap where they would -- they would release Kenji Goto, the Japanese journalist, in exchange for Sajida Al-Rishawi. No mention of the release of the Jordanian pilot. The only thing ISIS said is that they will kill the pilot if this exchange does not happen. We do not know what ISIS wants for the release of the Jordanian pilot. No demands have been made public yet.

BLITZER: And there is absolutely no proof of life that they've -- that ISIS has released that this Jordanian fighter pilot that crashed over Syria in December is still alive. We've only seen a still photo put forward by that Japanese journalist that was made to show a picture of him. Is that right?

KARADSHEH: That is correct, Wolf. That is the last picture. Of course, the Jordanians, themselves, have not come out and said that they verified that recording, that photo, if it's genuine. Prior to that, the last time we saw photos of the Jordanian pilot, Muath Al- Kasaesbeh (ph) was December 24th when he was captured. Right after that, ISIS released photos of him there with the ISIS fighters in Iraq.

After that, towards the end of December, ISIS, in its English publication, the magazine, "Zaba," (ph) released what they called an interview with Muath Al-Kasaesbeh. And accompanying that was a photo of him in an orange jump suit. And this is the last thing that we have seen. The family, here, has not mentioned getting any pictures. And, of course, this is what is raising the question here, Wolf, is whether is -- if he's still alive or not. This is an organization that is known for its sophisticated propaganda videos. And so, of course, the question is, why have we not seen anything yet?

BLITZER: All right, we're going to stay very close to you -- in close touch with you, Jomana. Thank you very much. If you get more, just simply let us know right away. Obviously, all of us are anxious to get -- to find out what's going on.

In the meantime, let's get some more on what's going on. I'm joined by retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling. He's a CNN Military Analyst, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. He also commanded the Army's first armored division in northern Iraq. And joining us here in Washington is Josh Rogin, our CNN Political Analyst. He's a columnist for "Bloomberg View."

Lieutenant General Hertling, the fact that Jordan's government says they've been talking to their indirect ISIS contacts in Iraq, not in Syria, what, if anything, does that tell us?

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: This is the Jordanian government taking the initiative on this, Wolf. And, personally, I believe it's a brilliant move on their part. It -- there was an attempt by (INAUDIBLE) ISIS to put a wedge between Japan and Jordan, Jordan a participating member in the campaign, the coalition campaign against ISIS, to say, hey, be the intermediary here.

But for Jordan's national interest, they're saying, we want our pilot back. That's going to be part of the deal of this, what would be called a prisoner exchange as opposed to a ransom. And I think it was brilliant on their part. Show us our pilot. We might give you Miss Sajida and we'll make a deal then. But just giving you one of our attempted murders that we're holding in prisoner -- as prisoner in death row for our Japanese journalist just doesn't cut it -- Wolf.

BLITZER: And I know, Josh, you've been working your sources. You've been monitoring what's going on in social media. What are you hearing?

JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, very interestingly, right after the deadline passed, ISIS propaganda Twitter feeds, put out three tweets. They all warned the Jordanian government not to kill the imprisoned female terrorist and they warned that if she was killed, that there would be a severe reaction by ISIS.

BLITZER: But there's no indication. Jordan's had this woman now for 10 years. And there is -- they haven't killed her over the past 10 years. She's serving time in prison for her involvement in the terrorist plot at these Amman hotels which, what, 60 people were killed, hundreds were injured. So, why are they even raising the possibility that Jordan might kill this woman?

ROGIN: Exactly. What they're implying is that Jordan has threatened to kill her if the Jordanian pilot is killed. That's what they say in the tweets. That's not independently verified. That's just what ISIS is claiming. But what it shows is the value they put on this particular individual. She's become a symbol for ISIS. She's become a rallying cry. She was the sister of top aide, Zarqawi, the original leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq. So, they still want her back.

BLITZER: Even though ISIS and Al Qaeda -- ISIS was Al Qaeda in Iraq, became ISIS. But, recently, in the last couple years or so, there's been a feud going on between ISIS and Al Qaeda.

ROGIN: Exactly. In the same Twitter feed, the ISIS propaganda unit criticizes Al Qaeda. But now, they are calling for the return of this terrorist. That leaves hope for the hostages because if there's still a chance that this terrorist could be released, then the hostages still have hope that they will be preserved and that they won't be killed until the negotiations play out more.

BLITZER: And, General Hertling, even if they work on a deal, let's say they -- ISIS, and we don't know if they will, releases the Jordanian pilot and the Japanese journalist in exchange for this woman terrorist. Doing a handover along the border between Syria and Turkey with three, at least two maybe three individuals involved, that becomes, from a military perspective, a security perspective, extremely dangerous, doesn't it?

HERTLING: Absolutely, Wolf. And this is -- there's been a lot of comparisons to what occurred between Mr. -- Sergeant Bergdahl and the three Taliban prisoners that were held at Guantanamo. This is nothing like this. This is a direct exchange as opposed to, you give us our prisoner back and then we will release your prisoners in good faith. I don't think anyone trusts ISIS to do the right thing. And I just keep going back to the fact this is -- this is a publicity stunt. This is more information, operations. This is more capturing of the world's attention. And I don't believe ISIS ever had the intent to release any of the prisoners.

BLITZER: One correction, I think, General. The U.S. released five Taliban prisoners at Guantanamo Bay in exchange for Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, not three, right?

HERTLING: You're correct Wolf. I'm sorry. I'm mistaken.

BLITZER: Yes, I just wanted to make sure that that was a U.S. swap as opposed to what's going on right now. And as far as that's concerned, the U.S., itself, got involved in this area, sensitive area, of releasing convicted -- releasing prisoners at Guantanamo Bay in exchange for an American soldier. I want you to standby, Josh. And General Hertling, I want you to stand by as well because there's a lot to discuss. This is a minute-by-minute development. I want to turn to some more breaking news, though, that we're getting right now.

An explosion at a Mexico maternity hospital has killed at least seven people, including children, injuring nearly 40 people, and an unknown number of others trapped in the rubble. You're looking at pictures coming in. The explosion is southwest of Mexico City. Apparently happened while a truck was supplying natural gas to the hospital. Let's get some more on this story. CNN's Senior Latin American Affairs Editor Rafael Romo is over at our world headquarters right now at CNN in Atlanta. Rafael, what do you know? What's going on? This looks awful.

RAFAEL ROMO, CNN SENIOR LATIN AMERICAN AFFAIRS EDITOR: Wolf, we're talking about four babies and three adults among the victims, the fatal victims, today at this explosion, the hospital in Mexico City. It happened at 7:00 in the morning. Shortly thereafter at a time when a lot of people are coming into the hospital for their appointments and a lot of people are being released.

Take a look at these images that we're getting from Mexico City. Authorities are saying that about a third of the hospital collapsed after the explosion, a natural gas explosion. And what officials are saying is that a tanker was delivering gas and the hose to deliver that gas exploded and the explosion actually happened inside the hospital. Also telling us that there are about 37 people injured. The driver and his assistant were detained. And the local mayor is calling it a scene of devastation.

Again, as you can see in these images, rescuers are going through the debris trying to see if there might be any more children surviving this explosion in Mexico City -- Wolf.

BLITZER: All right. Please keep us up to speed on this Rafael. It is awful what's going on over there right now. Thank you.

Still ahead, many countries have strict policies not to negotiate with terrorists unless -- like the American Bowe Bergdahl, he was held prisoner of war, supposedly, by the Taliban. Should there be a distinction? Could a prisoner swap strengthen ISIS? There's much more happening on this front.

Also, we're going to tell you what investigators are now revealing about the terrifying final moments of the Air Asia Flight 8501. We're getting new information.

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BLITZER: An excruciating waiting game for the families of two hostages whose lives are being threatened now by ISIS. The fate of the Jordanian and Japanese captives remains very much unclear nearly four hours after an ISIS imposed deadline passed. The militant group demanded Jordan release this woman, a convicted terrorist, at the Syrian-Turkish border at 9:30 a.m., that would be New York time, in exchange for the two hostages. But Jordan is demanding proof the Jordanian hostage, an F-16 fighter pilot, is still alive before releasing its prisoner.

Our Fred Pleitgen reports on the potential repercussions of an exchange.

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FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Many countries have a seemingly simple rule, they don't negotiate with terrorists. But for ISIS captives, Kenji Goto from Japan, and Jordanian pilot Moaz Al - Kassasbeh, that sort of stance could have disastrous consequences.

In the past, in similar cases, governments have budged. Last year, the U.S. traded several Taliban captives for Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl who was captured by the extremist group almost five years earlier. Despite claims that Bergdahl may have abandoned his post before being kidnapped, the State Department defended the move saying it was nothing unusual.

MARIE HARF, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESWOMAN: It is consistent, absolutely with what's happened in previous wars, including Korea, including Vietnam. I think one of the large tranches of prisoners in Vietnam, it was something like around 500 Americans for 1200 North Vietnamese. So, again, this has a long history in the United States of prisoner swaps.

During the Cold War, the West swapped hundreds of spies with communist blocked countries. The released agents often crossed sides at the famous Glienicke Bridge at the border between East and West Berlin. But prisoner swaps with extremist groups remain controversial. In 2011, Israel made a major concession to its arch enemy Hamas. Exchanging more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in return for the soldier Gilad Shalit, who'd been kidnapped in Gaza in 2006? Hamas celebrated the deal as a major victory. And the Netanyahu government was heavily criticized.

Duncan Bullivant, a risk consultant says swapping prisoners for hostages is still better than paying for the release of prisoners as some European countries do.

DUNCAN BULLIVANT, HENDERSON RISK LIMITED: If you hand large amounts of money over to terrorist organizations, there is no doubt that that money is going to go and fund future terrorist atrocities, buy weapons, buy explosives, buy people, buy opportunity. So it is a direct link between paying a ransom and fueling terrorism.

PLEITGEN: And in the case of the two ISIS captives, a swap might be one of the few chances they have to stay alive. Fred Pleitgen, CNN, London.

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BLITZER: Let's get back to our panel. Once again, joining us, Retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, a military analyst, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe. Our Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr is joining us now. As is Josh Rogin, CNN analyst columnist for "Bloomberg View." General Hertling, is there a distinction to be made in the case between a prisoner and a hostage? Does the United States now classify military members like Sergeant Bergdahl if they're taken by the Taliban or maybe taken by ISIS as prisoners of war?

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: I think that's the critical distinction, Wolf. And again, a swap implies that both sides are going to get something that they want based on their value and there isn't an intimidation effect. That's very, very different from ransoming someone. And when the threat of death is there, that no longer goes under what might be classified as the laws of war.

Hey, you either give us our prisoner or we're going to kill yours, that's an entirely different kind of situation than saying we will trade our prisoner for your prisoner, which goes back through the centuries in terms of warfare. It's a different approach to what we're talking about.

BLITZER: Because what's been going on for centuries as you correctly pointed out is after a war between two states, there clearly can be and often is an exchange of prisoners. The prisoners who are kept as POWs during the course of the war. But this is very different, this war is by no means over, right?

HERTLING: This war will not be over for a very long time, Wolf. And based on the extremist views of DAESH, this will continue unless they are driven into the dirt or there's a popular uprising or you have soldiers defeating them. So this is one of those kind of things where it's very different. And as was said earlier on one of the morning shows, whenever you have these kinds of ransom as opposed to prisoner swap situations, there's going to be a lot of chatter on the net about taking more prisoners, specifically for the point of ransoming, not for the point of depleting the enemies or both side's military capabilities.

BLITZER: Barbara, what are you hearing over at the Pentagon about what's going on with this Jordanian pilot, the Japanese hostage, this terrorist, this female terrorist that Jordan has been holding for ten years?

BARBARA STARR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the Pentagon, across the Obama administration, they're watching this really around the clock seeing what is happening, you know, getting their information through various sources. No indication at this hour of any of this is going to work. That the Jordanian pilot will be brought out, that there's even a proof of life for him. And that would lead to the woman being released. At this hour, there's every reason to believe she is still in Jordan. One of the issues for the coalition right now that's been conducting those airstrikes is there anything that they can learn about the state of ISIS, is ISIS perhaps getting more desperate. Is ISIS feeling the pinch of these airstrikes? There are indications that they are. But I will tell you, just this week in Washington, the head of U.S. Special Operations said ISIS is still a recruiting powerhouse that they are able to recruit foreign fighters to come to Iraq and Syria and fight on their behalf, the general said, at a staggering rate.

So the airstrikes may be working to some extent on the ground, ISIS may be feeling the pinch, but they are still able to replenish their ranks. And that is a very major concern for the U.S., Wolf.

BLITZER: Yeah, that social media component, Josh, the way they recruit these individuals to come not only from the Middle East, but from - or North Africa, but from Europe and even the United States and Canada. That -- they are very effective. They may be losing guys to U.S.-led airstrikes, but others are coming in.

JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Exactly. Isn't it amazing that this small group of terrorists can use limited resources to overpower the popular social media of the greatest countries on earth? They have a very complex operation and they've been very successful in getting their message out. And they're winning the propaganda war even if they're not winning the war on the ground. And the international community has yet to come up with the comprehensive strategy to combat not only the social media prowess of ISIS, but also to reach the hearts and minds of the potential recruits to convince them that ISIS is bad, you don't want to join and that staying with the good guys is a better path.

BLITZER: General Hertling, I've heard some analysts suggest in the government and outside the government from ISIS' perspective, this is a win-win. If they get the swap, they get this woman out of there, they look like they're heroes. They got this woman who blew up this wedding party, or at least participated in this plot to blow up a wedding party, killing 60 people in Amman, Jordan somewhat ten years ago. So they look like their prestige is increasing. If they don't get the swap and they behead the Jordanian pilot or behead the Japanese journalist, they put that out on the Internet, they look like -- that's a recruiting tool for them as well. What's your analysis about that?

HERTLING: My take is you're exactly right, Wolf. There are elements of win-win in both of the situations. But I'd like to push back a little bit on what Josh just said in that I don't think ISIS, Daesh, is winning the propaganda war. They are certainly continuing to be somewhat successful in certain elements of the population. But I would suggest that they are, as Barbara stated, being defeated or being at least affected by both air campaign and by the things they are doing in various situations like this one. So there is as much defeat and as much vehemence against the group caused by this kind of situations as there might be a small element of recruitment for those who might be prone to join a Jihadi group in the first place. And I think we're increasingly attempting to counter that approach, too.

This is not - I don't think everyone is rolling their sleeves even though General Votel did say they continue to have a vast number of recruits. Most of those recruits are going to their death as they continue to join this organization.

BLITZER: All right, Josh, go ahead.

ROGIN: Yeah, I would just say that my sources on the ground and also sources inside the U.S. government and intelligence community insist that actually that ISIS is recruiting is outpacing the level at which we are killing them. In other words, there are ranks are growing. Also on the ground, it's clear that they're digging in in Iraq, that they're expanding their territory in Syria. And that the majority of U.S. airstrikes, especially in Syria, have not gone to the places where ISIS is in its most vulnerable positions. So, there's two perceptions of the war against ISIS. One is that it's going well, and one that it's not going well. For the people on the ground in Iraq and Syria, they definitely don't believe it's not going well and the propaganda is a big part of that.

BLITZER: All right, guys, we've got to leave on that note. I will point out that in recent days, ISIS clearly has suffered a major setback in that Syrian town of Kobani. Thanks largely to Kurdish fighters who went in there. It looks like they are getting the job done, but they are still in control of Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq right now. A city of nearly 2 million people. They have got significant chunks of Iraq and Syria, still very much part of their control. But they are suffering some setbacks.

All right, guys, thanks very, very much.

Other news we're following. Hezbollah back and gone apparently after launching the deadliest military attack against Israel since 2006. Will Israel agree to some sort of coming down? Will Israel retaliate? What's going on? Stay with us.

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BLITZER: Israel and the militant group Hezbollah appear to be stepping back from what could have been a full-scale confrontations. Tensions clearly flared after Hezbollah attacked the Israeli military convoy killing two Israeli soldiers. A few days earlier, Israel attacked the Hezbollah convoy in Syria. An attack that killed several Hezbollah militants and one Iranian general who was with them. All of that - an exchange of airstrikes and mortar fire, a Spanish U.N. peacekeeper was killed in the fighting. Now Hezbollah's trying to dial back tensions. Clearly, the Israelis want to dial back tensions at the same time.

Our senior international correspondent Nima Elbagir is following the latest developments from Beirut in Lebanon. Our global affairs correspondent Elise Labott is - in Israel not far from the Lebanese border. Nima, first of all, what is Hezbollah saying, how is that message being transmitted, what's the latest?

NIMA ELBAGIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, it was described as a message of restraint. It came through the U.S. peacekeeping force in Lebanon. The Israeli Defense Minister called it as the usual non-official channels. Of course, there is a lot of diplomatic back chat in those non-official ways, particularly crucial at times like this. Speaking to a lot of people here, they're worriers. Whenever you get this kind of tit for tat retaliations, there's always that specter of the 2006 Israel and Lebanon war hanging over this. So, this really has dialed back the tension, this attempt at reaching out by Hezbollah. Here, people are slowly starting to exhale and hoping that Israel will be receptive, Wolf.

BLITZER: And Elise, as you know, all the top Israelis, they insist they don't want the situation to escalate either. What are you hearing over there? You are on the ground right near the border with Lebanon.

ELISE LABOTT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, we were literally at the fence with the border between Israel and Lebanon. And it's eerily quiet. I mean the clashes have stopped. And there's no fighting. But everyone, as you say, a miscalculation on both part, and this could spiral out of control again. But what the prime minister is saying today, Prime Minister Netanyahu is still continuing to point this finger at Iran.