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Anderson Cooper 360 Degrees
Countdown to Pennsylvania Showdown; Single Women and the Presidential Campaign
Aired April 21, 2008 - 22:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: The Democratic candidates have taken it right into the 11th hour to win tomorrow's Pennsylvania primary, two late events today. But they have been at it all day, crisscrossing the state, Hillary Clinton starting out this morning in Scranton, then Pittsburgh, then Harrisburg, finishing her night with a late rally in Philadelphia, where she's expected in just a few minutes.
Barack Obama started in Blue Bell in the southeastern corner of the state, then about 250 miles west to McKeesport, and finally on to a rally tonight getting under way shortly in Pittsburgh.
Today and this weekend, the war of words has escalated between these two campaigns, he calling her a Washington insider co-opted by special interests. She says he isn't tough enough for the job.
They flooded the airwaves with campaign ads, Obama outspending Clinton 2-1 in the state. They are chasing 158 delegates, but mainly looking ahead to another number, tomorrow's margin of tomorrow's victory. Insiders believe an Obama victory by any margin would end the race.
So, earlier tonight, on "LARRY KING LIVE," Senator Clinton said she is in it until the end, win or lose, in Pennsylvania. A big win, though, would bolster her case. On the other hand, a narrow win is probably everybody's nightmare scenario, and that's precisely what our latest CNN poll of polls is predicting, a seven-point race, 50-43 Clinton, with 7 percent undecided, a tight contest in the 11th hour with the stakes growing every minute and the attacks getting harsher.
The "Raw Politics" now from both sides, starting with the Clinton campaign and CNN's Candy Crowley.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The day before the polls open, Hillary Clinton met up with her super- surrogate and smiled her way through a series of rallies. Meantime, her campaign unleashed a pointed ad with images of Pearl Harbor and Osama bin Laden and an unsubtle slam on Barack Obama.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, CLINTON CAMPAIGN AD)
NARRATOR: You need to be ready for anything, especially now, with two wars, oil prices skyrocketing, and an economy in crisis. Harry Truman said it best. If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. Who do you think has what it takes?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
AUDIENCE: Hillary! Hillary! Hillary!
CROWLEY: Pennsylvania is Clinton-friendly -- whiter, older, and more female than the national average, with nearly a million union households. They're demographics that have favored her in other states. Did we mention she has roots here?
SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My grandfather went to work in the Scranton lace mills when he was 11 years old, worked there until he retired at 65, and really lived the American dream, and understood the importance of hard work.
CROWLEY: It's been all working-class all the time. And so, on election eve, no way she or Obama would pass up a chance to address pro-wrestling fans on "Monday Night Raw."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "MONDAY NIGHT RAW")
CLINTON: But, tonight, in honor of the WWE, you can call me Hill-Rod. This election is starting to feel a lot like king of the ring. The only difference, the last man standing may just be a woman.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CROWLEY: A Pennsylvania loss would be not just unexpected, but catastrophic.
CLINTON: Do everything you can. Convince people to go vote who say that they're not going to vote. Take them to the polls. Call your friends and neighbors. Make the case for the kind of results that we desperately need in America again.
CROWLEY: A Pennsylvania win speeds her on her way to Indiana and North Carolina.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COOPER: So much seems to depend on the undecideds. Do we know who they are in Pennsylvania?
CROWLEY: Well, you know, we can tell there's a lot -- a group in the rural areas, that would certainly lend itself to the Clinton campaign. And we also know from previous primaries, Anderson, that a lot of those undecideds tend to break her way, which is counterintuitive, because, usually, you would think, well, Hillary Clinton is the better known. People have already made up their minds about her.
But we have seen in primary after primary that, in general, when they have a large amount of undecideds, either they stay home or they go toward her.
COOPER: All right, Candy Crowley, thanks. On now to the Obama camp. He is expected shortly at a campaign rally in Pittsburgh. I think we have a live shot of that. We're just -- we're told his motorcade has just arrived at this event. Obviously, the crowd is very excited and waiting to see him.
Senator Obama began the race overwhelmingly behind in Pennsylvania. He's narrowed the gap considerably, but appeared to lose momentum on several occasions, including last week's debate on ABC. Now, that said, nobody doubts Senator Obama knows how to campaign. You could see it from one end of Pennsylvania to the other in the last couple days.
More on that now from CNN's Suzanne Malveaux.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): After tens of millions of dollars and six weeks of baby-kissing, bowling, beer, and bickering...
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: She's got a magic solution.
MALVEAUX: ... it's game time.
OBAMA: You and I together, we won't just win Pennsylvania. We will win this nomination.
MALVEAUX: Pulling out all the stops.
OBAMA: All aboard.
MALVEAUX: Barack Obama went from whistle-stop tour to wooing working families over waffles and sausage.
OBAMA: You want some sausage?
MALVEAUX: He's fighting for the voters here in Scranton and similar regions, heavily blue-collar, white, Catholic, financially struggling, voters in the past who have been most loyal to Hillary Clinton. He's also trying to appeal to white men.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "MONDAY NIGHT RAW")
OBAMA: This is truly a historic "Raw."
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: This tonight on the World Wrestling Entertainment Channel.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "MONDAY NIGHT RAW")
OBAMA: Do you smell what Barack is cooking?
CLINTON: When it comes to standing up for the American people, though, I am ready to rumble.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Polls show Obama has cut into Clinton's lead significantly since they began competing for this state. He's outspent her more than 2-1. Obama is counting on newly registered Democrats, African-Americans, young voters, and those generally more wealthy and educated, who have traditionally favored him.
Leading up to Tuesday's primary, both campaigns stepped up their attacks, going after each other on health care, trade, and personal strength. Obama would like to end the race here. But he's already conceded, he believes Clinton will win Pennsylvania by a narrow margin.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
OBAMA: I'm not predicting a win. I'm predicting it's going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COOPER: What is the strategy for both tomorrow and beyond?
MALVEAUX: Well, Anderson, he's going to be in Philadelphia tomorrow.
But, beyond Pennsylvania, what they're really hoping here is that this is not going to be a blowout, that it's going to be competitive, because they really have to show the superdelegates. They have got to blunt that argument Hillary Clinton has been making that all of this money and time here in Pennsylvania has been worth it, and he can be competitive in a swing state like Pennsylvania.
And he also needs to kind of nip away just a little bit at some of her base, needs to show that he's making at least some inroads with Catholic voters, with females, with blue-collar voters, those -- those type of folks. He needs to show the superdelegates that that's where he's heading in the contests ahead.
COOPER: All right, Suzanne Malveaux reporting -- thanks, Suzanne.
So, that's a state of play tonight in Pennsylvania, two candidates, one state. But it's not that simple. There are more than four million registered Democrats in the state of Pennsylvania. They're from the same party, but they are very different voters.
We want to a closer look now at the political landscape with CNN's John King and his magic map.
(LAUGHTER)
COOPER: John. JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The diversity is stunning. It is many different states.
You have an Eastern city here in Philadelphia, very much a Midwestern city out here in Pittsburgh. Let's look at the keys for the night. Suzanne was just talking about the Obama hopes. If there is to be an Obama upset, a stunning upset, in Pennsylvania, it will begin right here in the southeast corner.
About 30 percent of the state's population is right here in this corner. The key for Barack Obama, Philadelphia, about 12 percent of the state. More than 50 percent of the voters in the city will be African-Americans. He not only needs to win that vote by a large margin. He needs a big turnout.
Then, for Barack Obama, the question is, how does he do in the more affluent suburbs? Bucks County began the year as a Republican county. More Democrats than Republicans now, in part because of Obama-driven voter registration. Same in Montgomery County. It began as a Republican county this year. Democrats now have a slight edge there.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: So, it's actually -- they have actually changed the makeup of the county?
KING: It changed the makeup of the county.
COOPER: By registering new voters.
KING: There's excitement on the Democratic side. It's not all Obama. The party has been registering voters.
COOPER: Right.
KING: Clinton gets some of the credit.
But if you -- I was in those counties last week. In both counties, even Clinton supporters say a lot of the new voters are coming in because of Barack Obama. They need to turn out tomorrow in big numbers. The other two counties here, Chester County is more a Republican county, but there are some affluent Democrats there, Delaware County as well.
About 30 percent, again, of the state's population right here in this southeast corner. If Barack Obama is going to pull off an upset, it must begin right there. Now we will look at what we call the blue- collar belt. I'm going to pull this down a little bit, take that off for a sec, pull the state down a little bit.
If there's a backlash against bitter, it's here, Allentown, up into Scranton, where Hillary Clinton has roots, white blue-collar voters here and white blue-collar across the state. On the other side, same idea, from Erie, down to Pittsburgh. You have white blue- collar voters here, a high population of Catholics. As Candy Crowley noted, this is an older state, the second oldest state in the country. Those voters tend to support Senator Clinton.
And you have the white workers here. And if it is a close race, Anderson -- I'm going to highlight this area for you -- if it is a close race, we will look out here into what people in Pennsylvania call the T. Why is it the T.? That is the conservative part of the state.
Let's go back in time to 2004. These are Republicans. This is where George W. Bush won the state. He lost it narrowly twice, won big in these rural counties out here. It will be Republican come November, but there are a lot of while rural Democrats here. If Hillary Clinton needs them, if it is a very close race because of Obama's strength down here, this could be the key, if we're having a long night, counting these very small counties in here.
COOPER: All right. We want to look at the national picture coming up with you and also the superdelegate count coming up. We will do that shortly.
As we mentioned at the top, the two campaigns tonight are going literally into the 11th hour. You're looking at live pictures from the Clinton and Obama events. You can see Bill Clinton there on the right. We're going to deep into each of them, equal time, when they get under way.
As always, I'm blogging throughout the hour. To join the conversation, go to CNN.com/360. What do you think is going to happen tomorrow? We would love to hear from you.
Up next: our panel and plenty to talk about, including what happens if nothing is decided tomorrow, which is probably a big likelihood.
Also tonight, a voting group that some believe could be the key to victory. Randi Kaye is working that angle.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Maria Wing (ph) is a Philadelphia lawyer, 28 years old, single, and in debt.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We are, you know -- quote -- "on our own." And it's not like I have a husband to augment my income.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: Unmarried women, one in four Democratic voters, and the war to woo them -- that and more tonight on 360.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "LARRY KING LIVE")
CLINTON: Well, I'm going until we get Florida and Michigan resolved. I'm going until everybody's had a chance to vote in this process. I'm going until the automatic delegates have made their judgments based on their independent assessment as to who of us would be better against John McCain in the fall and who would be the best president for our country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: Hillary Clinton tonight on "LARRY KING LIVE" sounding like heartburn for Democratic Party chairman Howard Dean, who wants this over soon, but doesn't have the clout to make it happen, a lot to talk about tonight, spin, tactics, demographics, the issues at play, not to mention several hundred thousand newly registered Democrats, and how they will be voting.
Joining us now is CNN senior political analyst Gloria Borger, along with Joe Klein and Mark Halperin, both of "TIME" magazine.
First of all, it's interesting, Gloria. You hear Hillary Clinton listing the things that need to happen. Everybody votes. The superdelegates decide. And Florida and Michigan get seated. That's a big one right there.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: We're back there.
COOPER: Yes.
BORGER: Yes. We're back there. You're right. This is heartburn for Howard Dean, because he would like this race to be over. He would like the superdelegates to decide. he said he's going to tell them to decide.
But, if, tomorrow, she wins in the double digits, this is not anywhere near over. I can tell you that.
COOPER: What is -- when is a win is loss? When is a loss a win? Does it have to be double digits for Hillary Clinton?
JOE KLEIN, COLUMNIST, "TIME": Oh, I don't know.
(LAUGHTER)
KLEIN: I think we're going to look at the delegates. I think, you know, it's Pennsylvania. Tomorrow is Groundhog Day.
COOPER: Yes.
KLEIN: It's going to -- we're going to have a repetition of tomorrow two weeks from now...
COOPER: Right.
KLEIN: ... in Indiana and North Carolina.
COOPER: We should ban the term, like, make or break, do or die.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: This is a race, none of that seems... (CROSSTALK)
KLEIN: Given her laundry list of things that have to happen, we will be lucky if we have a nomination by Thanksgiving, which is after the election.
BORGER: Right.
(LAUGHTER)
COOPER: When do you think -- Howard Dean says, look, the superdelegates need to decide by June 3. Is that likely? I mean...
MARK HALPERIN, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST, "TIME": I think it's possible. Look...
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: June 3 is the date of when all the primaries and caucuses are over.
HALPERIN: I think we're too focused on the question of the margin in Pennsylvania as the end of -- the thing to look at.
There are two things to look at to get her out of the race, assuming she's not going to be the nominee. One is Barack Obama getting to a mathematical majority, which he could do, if superdelegates look at the results in Pennsylvania and perhaps Indiana and North Carolina and say, we have seen enough, we're going with Obama.
The other thing is if her people tell her to get out of the race. I suspect, if she wins by anything more than just a few points, none of her prominent people will tell her to get out of the race. We're going at least two more weeks.
BORGER: You know, the other big issue is money. Barack Obama has a lot more money than Hillary Clinton. And I think, in the end, it's going to be the money people who say to Hillary Clinton, look, we cannot raise anymore money.
COOPER: And Hillary Clinton started off this month, I think, with $8.5 million. I think she got $2.5 million from Elton John's event.
BORGER: Right.
COOPER: But she's spending about a million dollars a day, her campaign.
BORGER: Right.
(CROSSTALK)
BORGER: And there's nothing harder than retiring a campaign debt in the world... (LAUGHTER)
BORGER: ... because you have to ask people to give you money after you're no longer a candidate. So, that's a tough thing to do. So, I think, in the end, if it's not going to work for her, it will be the money people...
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: But, if she does win Pennsylvania, I mean, money will flood in.
BORGER: Yes.
COOPER: It did after Texas. They were able to raise some $20 million.
KLEIN: Well, it depends. I think that it depends on how many -- how many of her supporters are tapped out at this point.
(CROSSTALK)
KLEIN: She tends toward the bigger -- bigger donors.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: Obama, more than 40 percent of the people who have given to him have not maxed out, whereas, with her, it's only about 20 percent of the people.
(CROSSTALK)
KLEIN: One thing I will say is that I spent the weekend in Pennsylvania, one day with Obama, one day with Clinton.
And he seemed kind of subdued for him. He's still a very good campaigner, a little bit bummed, maybe a little ticked off. And she was on fire. She really had an awful lot of energy. I think she could feel this moving in her direction.
So, I mean, you know, there are a lot of people who want to get rid of her, but, when you watch her work, it doesn't look like she's going to leave any time soon.
HALPERIN: When they say, this is a good Clinton -- the Obama say, this is a good Clinton state, older voters, blue-collar voters, he's got to win those voters. He can't just be conceding...
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: While you're talking, let's take a look at an event, Michelle Obama and Barack Obama on stage in Pittsburgh.
We're going to be showing you live events tonight, both from the Obama campaign and also from the Clinton campaign, giving both equal time. But we just wanted to show you this, as Mark Halperin is talking.
HALPERIN: So, big crowds like tonight, gets big crowds everywhere, spending lots -- raising spending lots of money.
But the question is going to be begged, if he can't beat her in the state, why can't he win these big states with lots of blue-collar Democrats?
COOPER: So, she's actually able to use the fact that he's outspending her 2-1 to her advantage if he can't pull off a win?
BORGER: Sure.
HALPERIN: Maybe.
BORGER: Yes.
HALPERIN: Superdelegates seem more attracted by the popular vote argument. If I were them, I would be more attracted to this big-state argument. That, to me, has more resonance for a general election argument.
KLEIN: Right.
And, as this thing goes along, both candidates seem to be losing altitude, in terms of -- we're getting -- we're getting to know more about their weaknesses than their strengths. I mean, we're learning what Mark just said about Obama, that he has trouble with some of the core Democratic groups. And Hillary Clinton is looking at polls where 60 percent of the people don't trust her.
BORGER: So, you're telling Republicans, gee, these are the things you have got to talk about, no matter -- no matter who is the nominee, Hillary Clinton's likability, Barack Obama's problems with traditional Democratic constituencies.
COOPER: Do we know -- the much-gone-over bitter comment, the much-gone-over Reverend Wright comments, do we know what kind of an impact that's had? The polls seem to indicate people don't pay -- haven't paid -- or are paying attention, but aren't really taking into their calculus. But do we know?
BORGER: It looks like it's frozen the polls, at least for a few days. I don't know if you guys agree with me. But it sort of froze polls. He was -- he was really closing in on her, and then it stopped. And she may have gained an advantage. We will know tomorrow.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: And, obviously, there you see Chelsea Clinton talking at an event in Philadelphia.
Go ahead.
KLEIN: Well, we have seen this kind of pattern before. In Ohio, he closed in on her, mostly because he was putting a lot more advertising on the air. And then, in the last few days, you know, the gap widened again.
And that may well be what's happening in Pennsylvania now.
COOPER: What -- how important is North Carolina, Indiana? I mean, obviously, regardless of what happens tomorrow, this thing is going to go on. For Barack Obama, he's ahead in North Carolina. What about in Indiana?
HALPERIN: Indiana, the polls are mixed.
I think, if he wins with North Carolina, it will be with a lot of African-American vote. Again, if your audience is the superdelegates, when he wins stated based on -- largely on African-American vote, that doesn't really speak to the electability issue that is on the minds of some superdelegates.
Indiana, though, both of them have some strengths there, some weaknesses. As big a deal as we have made Pennsylvania, Indiana is a really big deal.
COOPER: There's John Kerry's wife introducing -- Teresa Heinz Kerry.
(CROSSTALK)
BORGER: Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh. Is she...
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: ... haven't seen her in quite a while.
(CROSSTALK)
BORGER: Heinz country. Heinz country, yes.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: A quick program note: I'm going to be hosting -- we're going to have more from our panel later on in the hour. Also, I am going to be hosting CNN's primary night coverage tomorrow, along with the big man, Wolf Blitzer, and the best political team on television, now including former White House Press Secretary Tony Snow. We're very glad to have him on the team.
It all gets under way tomorrow night, 7:00 Eastern time. It's going to be a fascinating night. I hope you join us.
Still ahead tonight: more politics, the new soccer moms. Remember them? An up-close look at the single female vote. They're the new crucial voting bloc, we're told, that could make or break the -- there, we said it, make or break -- we're going to outlaw that term -- the Pennsylvania primary for the candidates.
It's not going to be make or break. First, a massive undertaking: DNA testing under way for the more than 400 kids taken in a raid of the polygamist compound in Texas. We're going to get look at that story, how it's being done, the reaction on this night of politics -- next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COOPER: And we're going to take you to two events happening simultaneously, Barack Obama and Michelle Obama appearing at an event in Pittsburgh, Bill Clinton speaking right now, about to introduce his wife, Hillary Clinton, at an event in Pennsylvania.
Oh, we're -- we just cut away to a local newscast, but we will try to get back that feed.
A lot to cover, a lot of politics ahead, but let's get an update on some of the other stories we're following. Erica Hill joins us with a 360 bulletin -- Erica.
ERICA HILL, HEADLINE NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Anderson, we begin with a 360 follow. Lab workers have started taking DNA samples by cheek swab from the 416 children who were removed from the polygamist compound in Texas. Officials hope the testing will reveal the biological parents of each child.
In South Carolina, a Chesterfield High School senior accused of plotting to attack his school. His parents actually turned him in to police over the weekend when bomb-making materials were delivered to their home. Police say the ammonium nitrate was bought on eBay.
And, across the pond, as they say, Prince William landed a British air force helicopter at his girlfriend's family farm, also flew a military chopper to his cousin's bachelor party on an island in the English Channel. The British Defense Ministry says both flights were authorized training exercises.
Not going over so well, though, with a lot of people.
(CROSSTALK)
(LAUGHTER)
COOPER: Not bad to be the prince there. All right.
Up next, our countdown to the Pennsylvania primary continues -- a look at how what happened in Ohio could predict tomorrow's outcome in Pennsylvania.
Also ahead, will single women be the crucial voters who help elect the next president? Randi Kaye has the up-close look.
And here's tonight's "Beat 360": parents learning yoga with their babies in China.
And here's the caption from our staff winner, executive producer Kathleen Friery, who had some help from digital producer David Reisner: "The latest yoga move, downward facing baby."
(PEOPLE GROANING)
HILL: Hey, the wa-wa is gone.
COOPER: The wa-wa is gone. A certain someone in high authority didn't like it, so it's gone.
(LAUGHTER)
HILL: Out of here.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: Yes, a comedy expert.
If you think you can do better, go to CNN.com/360.
(LAUGHTER)
COOPER: Send us your submission. We will announce the winner at the end of the program tonight.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: So, we were told, the candidates, that they wouldn't count. So, we didn't campaign there. My name wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan. Senator Clinton agreed that they wouldn't count, until it turned out that we were winning.
(LAUGHTER)
OBAMA: And then she said, well, maybe we should count those votes, even though we had agreed they wouldn't count. And my name wasn't on the ballot in Michigan.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: Barack Obama tonight in western Pennsylvania, still talking about Michigan and Florida.
Demographically, western Pennsylvania looks a lot like eastern and northeastern Ohio. As much as Pittsburghers hate to admit it, they have a lot in common with Clevelanders or folks in Youngstown. The question tonight, will those similarities carry over into the voting booth tomorrow?
Crunching the numbers for us tonight, CNN's Bill Schneider -- Bill.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, you know, voters in Ohio are a little like the voters in western Pennsylvania. The voters in eastern Pennsylvania are very much like New Jersey. And guess what? Hillary Clinton carried both those states. Well, we took a look at the groups that are crucial tomorrow night, the age groups, very, very important. Voters under 30, look at how they voted in Ohio. They voted 61 percent for Barack Obama in Ohio. And there has been a surge of voter registration, a lot of new voters in -- among Democrats in Pennsylvania, Democratic registration up 8 percent.
But take a look at the seniors in Ohio. They outnumbered those young voters. The seniors were about a quarter of the vote, and they voted more than two-thirds for Hillary Clinton.
Here's something a lot of people don't know. Pennsylvania has the second oldest population in the country, after Florida, and has the highest percentage of people who have lived there all their lives.
COOPER: How did level of education affect the voting in Ohio?
SCHNEIDER: Well, Ohio was a very big difference by education. And this is going to be crucial in Pennsylvania.
We will be looking at voters tomorrow who don't have a college degree, those non-college voters. These -- a lot of them are blue- collar voters. These are the people who may have been insulted when Barack Obama talked about bitter voters who cling to their guns and religion. They voted more than two-thirds -- rather, they voted -- sorry -- 58 percent for Hillary Clinton in Ohio.
The question is, will she do better, or were they really not bothered by what Obama said? College graduates, those -- college graduates in Ohio split just about evenly between Obama and Clinton. That is why the Philadelphia suburbs, which have a lot of well- educated affluent voters, are a critical swing vote. They have a tremendous number of voters. They tend to be inclined to like Obama. But a lot of -- they live in Philadelphia. Ed Rendell was the mayor there. And he's the leader of Clinton campaign.
COOPER: What about the Catholic vote? Obviously, it's been talked about a lot this past week, with the pope being in town. Where do Catholics stand on the Democratic candidates?
SCHNEIDER: Well, throughout almost all the primaries, Catholic voters have been solidly for Hillary Clinton.
Take a look in Ohio how the Catholic vote went. It went nearly two-thirds for Hillary Clinton. And we have seen that in state after state. Why? I have seen a lot of different explanations. I'm not sure I know the reason. I have heard about nuns. I have heard about religion. I'm not sure I know.
But we do know that Catholics have been pretty reliable voters for Hillary Clinton. They're even more numerous in Pennsylvania than in Ohio. And they could be a crucial group for the New York senator tomorrow.
COOPER: Interesting. Bill, thanks very much -- Bill Schneider crunching the numbers.
Up next, Obama supporter Jamal Simmons and Hillary Clinton's former press secretary Lisa Caputo will join us with their thoughts in the final hours before tomorrow's showdown.
Also ahead, are they a new force in politics? Single women, for years, they have been practically a no-show at the ballot box. That is all changing. And the candidates are taking notice. Randi Kaye goes up close -- coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Actually, I think this has been, on balance, a pretty civil and positive campaign, compared to many that we've seen in the last years. And it is fair to compare and contrast the differences between us. And voters get to make up their own minds about, you know, who they can count on to make the very difficult decisions and bring about the positive results we need.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: And by this time tomorrow, we'll probably know who won Pennsylvania and by how much. But that's the popular vote. There are also 158 delegates up for grabs that we've been telling you about, as well as the critical battle over super delegates.
Let's talk about that with Democratic analyst, Obama supporter Jamal Simmons. Also with us, Clinton's former press secretary, Lisa Caputo.
Lisa, Hillary Clinton has seen her lead among super delegates diminish. I mean, at one point, it was -- it was more than 100. I think it's shrunk to now just about 24. That's not a good trend.
LISA CAPUTO, FORMER HILLARY CLINTON PRESS SECRETARY: Well, I think you have to take a step back and say tomorrow is very key for her, no doubt about it. And if you look at the history of the late deciders in the previous primaries, the late deciders go with Hillary Clinton. So that's a trend in the right direction for her.
Secondly, you want to look at the margin tomorrow.
And third, I think it's important to note that she's won all of the battleground states. And that's a very legitimate argument in terms of electability in the general election. And that's something super delegates are looking for. It's why you see her up on the air now with an ad going after Obama on the experience argument, trying to draw the contrast between her electability and her experience versus his inexperience and lack of electability.
COOPER: Jamal? JAMAL SIMMONS, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, first let's talk about the electability argument. I think what we've seen already is that, OK, Hillary Clinton is winning in some of these large states. But the argument is because she won in the large states, that means that Barack Obama won't win those states in November.
He's not winning versus a Democrat who people have had a lot of experience with and they know very well and they have some trust with. So I think we've got to take that into account.
And on the other -- on all the other issues, this ad that's up, what's really disappointing about this ad is all of us should remember in 2002 when the Republicans ran an ad featuring Osama bin Laden against Max Cleland. And all the Democrats were upset about that, because they used Osama bin Laden to stir up fear. And now here we are again, watching Democrats use Osama bin Laden to stir fear against other Democrats.
COOPER: What's wrong with using Osama bin Laden in an ad? I mean, in the general campaign, you're certainly going to see a lot of Osama bin Laden thrown around, whether as a reference or as a visual reference. Doesn't this go to the Clintons' argument against Obama, which is he's not tough enough to run this kind of bare-knuckles campaign? This is...
SIMMONS: No, no. Not at all. This isn't about whether Barack Obama's tough enough. I think he's shown that he is tough enough, which is why he's been winning all these states for the last few months. I think what this does go to is, in a family fight, you don't fight your opponent the same way you do when you're fighting someone else outside the other party.
And what we're watching is a Democratic campaign where one candidate is fighting the other candidate as if they're fighting against the other party. And that's what I think troubles a lot of Democrats, and we've seen Hillary Clinton's negative numbers skyrocket because of that.
COOPER: We've seen in the last couple of days the Clinton campaign has been critical of Barack Obama saying that essentially he's whining; he's not tough enough. Is that fair? I mean, wasn't Hillary Clinton the one complaining about, you know, she always got the first question in all the debates?
CAPUTO: You know, sitting here it would sound as if Hillary Clinton is the only one going negative. Let's not forget, Barack Obama is out there with disinformation...
COOPER: They're both running negative ads.
CAPUTO: ... disinformation about NAFTA and other things. So let's get that on the record.
I think, you know, look, they're both going negative. There's no two days about it. I think he was clearly on the defensive in last week's debate. He didn't want to answer a lot of the questions that were posed to him, and he was on the defensive.
And I think universally, Hillary Clinton, if you look at what all the reporters and the coverages said about it, won that debate.
I think what's key to watch going into tomorrow, is you have Barack Obama outspending Hillary Clinton two, three times to one.
COOPER: But the question is, is it...
CAPUTO: If she wins tomorrow, Anderson, against that kind of spend against her, that's a huge victory. That impacts...
SIMMONS: We all agree she's going to win tomorrow.
CAPUTO: ... but that impacts the super delegates.
COOPER: But the question is, is it hypocritical of her to argue, "Well, look, he's not tough enough. He's complaining about this debate. You know, he's a wimp; he's whining." I mean, she has been -- if that's whining, hasn't she been whining as well?
CAPUTO: I think if you look at her history, you know, throughout her years in public service, she's has everything, including multiple kitchen sinks thrown at her. I don't think she's been a whiner. In fact, I think she's endured and has a lot of grit. And that's clearly showing itself to be the case.
COOPER: Why shouldn't Barack Obama's campaign -- I'm not taking sides here. Barack Obama's campaign has been making a big to-do about this debate that the questions were unfair, that it was -- the issues were minor. Why shouldn't he be able to answer questions about a flag lapel pin or about his preacher or about some guy from the Weather Underground in a general election? Aren't all these things going to be asked?
SIMMONS: Of course he should be able to answer those questions. I don't think anybody would say that he shouldn't. And in fact, if you look at his debate performance, you know, I said this the other night, he would have never made that great debaters team that Denzel Washington had in that movie. Debates are just not his particular forte.
But Senator Clinton did say in an earlier debate, "Why am I always getting the first question? Why is everybody always picking on me?" And obviously, that's a paraphrase. But it is sort of the same. So I think you can't -- you know, one candidate is doing against the other one.
And you've got to sort of say both of these candidates need to muzzle up a little bit, because campaigns are hard. And they're going to have to fight their way...
COOPER: Do you think in terms of Hillary Clinton earlier was saying -- we showed a clip of her saying, look, she didn't think this has been particularly negative. Taking a step back, not being involved from the moment-to-moment tussle, how -- do you think this is all that negative?
CAPUTO: Look, I think that they're getting the positions out in the open. I think that they're both coming at it as they see fit. And I think what you see happening, certainly when you look through the Clinton lens, when you see your opponent in the Democratic primary basically cheering the Republican opponent, saying that he would be a better president than the current President Bush, makes you wonder...
COOPER: Wait a minute. OK.
SIMMONS: But we know who did that first.
CAPUTO: Well...
SIMMONS: Senator Clinton said that John McCain would be qualified to be commander in chief. She wasn't so sure about Barack Obama.
CAPUTO: I think Senator Clinton has been very clear on her position that -- that...
COOPER: Haven't they both praised John McCain in one way or another? I mean, she said the thing about experience, and he said the thing about he'd be better than most. It seems like they both said decent things about the guy.
CAPUTO: I think there's -- I think there's a respect for him, but I don't think either of them think that he would be better than the current president.
COOPER: We'll stop it there.
Lisa, it was good to have you on.
Jamal Simmons, as well.
Next on the program, single and strong, in number, how unmarried women could shape tomorrow's primary in the presidential race. Talking about politics, stay tuned.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COOPER: On the trail across the state, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton continuing to fight over every single Democratic vote in Pennsylvania.
We don't know what the outcome will be tomorrow or in November, for that matter. But we might have a good idea who could be the deciding factor. Single women. They're the soccer moms of 2008. And this year they may hold all the power.
CNN's Randi Kaye -- Randi Kaye gives us an up-close look.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Maria Wing is a Philadelphia lawyer, 28 years old, single and in debt.
MARIA WING, UNMARRIED PENNSYLVANIA VOTER: We are, you know, quote, "on our own." I mean, it's not like I have a husband to augment my income, should something happen with my job.
KAYE: Maria is a fleck of gold in the gold mine known as unmarried women voters. They vote overwhelmingly Democratic and, in Pennsylvania, make up one quarter of all eligible voters.
(on camera) Here in Pennsylvania, the economy is issue No. 1. And research shows unmarried women are the ultimate economy voter, with an average income of $30,000 or less.
What's important to them? Real-life economic needs, like childcare, health care, raising the minimum wage, and equal pay.
(voice-over) Married women care about similar issues, but single women nationwide earn less and are three times more likely to lack health coverage. Also, 20 percent of unmarried women are single moms.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The economy and the election, 2008.
KAYE: Julie Sego (ph) and Annie Friedman (ph) aren't married. They're juniors in college.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: College costs are crazy.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I know in two years I'm going to have to somehow get health care for myself, and the costs are just astronomical.
KAYE: Twenty-eight-year-old Carmina Ayo-Davies (ph) is single. She's worried about the housing Market.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm recently getting my home appraised, and it went down $15,000.
KAYE: Until recently, single women had been largely ignored by candidates and disengaged.
In 2004, nearly 1 million unmarried women in Pennsylvania stayed home on election day. This year, their presence in the primaries has reached historic levels. Why this sudden burst of interests? Campaigns have aggressively targeted single women.
CLINTON: Health care premiums have doubled. College tuition is up.
OBAMA: The young woman who I met who works full time in the night shift, goes to college during the day.
KAYE: Political expects say if they continue to mobilize, these women could determine who becomes the next president. Where do they stand? A recent study by Women's Voices, Women Vote, showed 58 percent of single women identify themselves as Democrats, compared to just 18 percent as Republicans. They are split evenly between senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Julie's (ph) hoping for more affordable education. Annie warrants guaranteed health care for her and her kids one day. Carmina (ph) just needs to know it's going to get better. And Maria, a tax code for the middle class.
WING: After Uncle Sam gets paid and Fannie Mae gets paid and, you know, housing expenses gets paid, Momma only has, like, a couple hundred to go out.
KAYE: Senators, are you listening? Prove it and you may just clean up another the polls.
Randi Kaye, CNN, Philadelphia.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COOPER: We'll see if they're listening.
Up next, John King with a look at the bigger picture. The battle for delegates nationwide and for super delegates. The final thoughts from our political panel, as well. And a former president fish tale, when 360 continues.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: There are three candidates left. Who do you want answering that 3 a.m. phone call: the person who got Iraq wrong or the person who got Iraq right? The person who paid attention to the intelligence or the person who didn't? The person who understood the consequences or the people who did not?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: Senator Barack Obama campaigning in Pennsylvania. The polls open just hours from now, and tomorrow night we'll have live coverage of the returns all night long, along with expert analysis from the best political team on television. You've heard that phrase before.
Right now we're going to look ahead, beyond tomorrow to the battle for delegates nationwide. For that we turn again to John King and his magic map -- John.
JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: And Anderson, we'll look at the delegate map, and it will show you how daunting Senator Clinton's task is. She can't really make up the delegate map. What she needs to do is change the psychology of the race. Let me show you what I mean by that.
Pennsylvania is up next. Let's first begin by -- here's where we start the night. When the voting starts tomorrow, Obama will be ahead by this gap here. You see the delegate count over there.
So let's assume -- everyone thinks Senator Clinton is favored. So let's give her Pennsylvania, then. We'll give her Pennsylvania. That's 55-45. She gets Pennsylvania. Look what happens: she catches up a little bit, but Obama is still out ahead.
Let me go back to the beginning again, just for the sake of argument. Let's say she blows him out, 65-35. No reason to believe that would happen, but let's say it's a blowout tomorrow night. Again, she catches up a little bit more, but Obama is still in the lead.
Now, let's start from that and run out the rest of the contest. Let's go back to a more normal 55-45. No reason to believe she would win these states I'm about to give her or necessarily win by that margin. But let's say she wins West Virginia, she wins Kentucky and she wins Indiana.
And let's even, for the sake of argument, even though the polls tell you something different right now, let's give Senator Clinton North Carolina and Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico, she is ahead right now. North Carolina, she is not.
Let's give Obama out here in the west where he has been winning other states, and he's leading in most of the polls right now. We've run out the ten remaining contests.
And look what you get. Senator Obama, even though Senator Clinton, I just gave her seven of the final ten. Again that's a hypothetical, but if she won seven of the final ten by 55-45, Obama still leads right here. So she wouldn't catch up in the delegate map.
What she is hoping is to do something like the scenario I just showed you: narrow the gap in the delegates, the pledged delegates to relatively close and then make the case to the super delegates, "I'm winning at the end. He's losing in these critical states we need in November. You have to come to me," heading into the convention or at the convention.
Very, very difficult map. It is much more about psychology than delegate map for Senator Clinton. And it must begin for her with a win right here in Pennsylvania.
COOPER: And it's fascinating when you actually crunch down the numbers like that, John. John King, thanks very much.
That's what it looks like on the map. Digging deeper, our political panel joins me again. CNN senior political analyst Gloria Borger; and Joe Klein and Mark Halperin, both of "TIME" magazine.
John King says you need to change the psychology of the race. Does that essentially mean continue with kitchen sink, continue trying to somehow bring Barack Obama down in the way people perceive him?
GLORIA BORGER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Absolutely. And that -- that's her strategy right now, which is to raise questions, give people what her campaign calls buyer's remorse about Barack Obama. Raise questions in the minds of those super delegates.
Because these are elected party officials. They care about one thing, and that's winning. They want a Democrat in the White House. And they want a Democrat who can carry the ticket further down the line, because they're up for re-election.
COOPER: I should also just point out, as you're talking, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are both on stage addressing large, very similar-looking crowds. We'll just continue to look at those pictures as Gloria continues to break it down (ph).
BORGER: I think Hillary Clinton is making -- it's a legal brief that she's making to this House of Lords, if you will, these super delegates, these elected officials, saying, "Think about winning, because that's what you care about, and that's what I care about. And he can't win those Democratic constituencies, he can't win those battleground states. That's why you have to overturn all of this and go to me."
COOPER: So Joe, how prone are these super delegates to having their psychology shifted?
JOE KLEIN, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Less and less prone as time goes on, I think. The ones I have been talking to, even the ones who have pledged to Hillary, are now saying, you know, "Maybe we should get this thing over with." I think it's been a long, long road.
What she's also hoping for here is another big, and an even bigger Obama screw-up than we've seen in the past. You were asking earlier about the effect of Reverend Wright and the debate on people's impressions of him.
And I think that what's happened over time is that the impressions of him, the negative impression of him, especially among white working and middle-class voters have hardened. And that's a very strong argument against his candidacy.
The strong argument against her candidacy -- and believe me, he has some real ammunition with the super delegates -- you know, the young people who've come out in droves will just stay home. African- American voters will just stay home. And 60 percent of the public doesn't trust her.
COOPER: And do you think he -- I mean, is his campaign selling that message now to super delegates?
KLEIN: I wouldn't be surprised.
COOPER: Yes.
MARK HALPERIN, "TIME" MAGAZINE: It's one of these nights when the exit polls is really going to matter a lot. Let's hope it's solid. Let's hope there aren't technological problems and everybody agrees that it's accurate, because what those super delegates are going to look at is the margin. But they're also going to look at how he does with working-class voters, particularly with white voters, in the rural parts of Pennsylvania.
He did very poorly with them in states like Ohio, in Missouri, in Oklahoma, in Tennessee. Let's see how he does with those voters.
If the margin's medium, not a blowout and not neck-and-neck, but he does -- holds his own -- let's say she does better with African- Americans than she's been doing in Philadelphia. Not impossible. I think -- I think that will be a good thing for him, even if he loses the state.
BORGER: And they're also going to look at the personal characteristics, I think, this notion of trust and likeability, which are very important to people when they vote for a president.
COOPER: Let's listen in to both candidates. First with Barack Obama.
OBAMA: ... I'm not going to take money from lobbyists. And people said, "Well, that can't be done." Except they didn't understand that you were going to finance this campaign with $25 contributions and $50 contributions and $100 contributions. And so we changed the minds how to run a presidential campaign.
I am not accountable to the special interests; I'm accountable to you, which means that they will not run their White House. And they will not drown out the voices of the American people when I'm president of the United States of America.
You know, we decided at the beginning of this campaign, we're going to try something different. We're going to tell the American people the truth. We're going to tell them not what they want to hear but what they need to hear.
So when I talked about raising fuel efficiency standards on cars, the only way that, over the long-term, we can drive down the price of oil, the only way that we can, over the long-term, save our environment, I didn't do it in front of some environmental group. I went to Detroit in front of the auto makers and told them they had to change their ways. And I have to admit the room was really quiet. Nobody clapped. But that's OK, because...
COOPER: Hearing him live at an event in Pittsburgh. At the same time, let's go to an event with Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia. Listen in.
CLINTON: ... jobs that Americans deserve to have. An economy that is beset by inequality, by rising prices for everything from gas to health care. An economy that is no longer presumed to provide a rising standard of living just because we're Americans.
An economy that must begin to address the real competition we face globally and do it in a way that honors our fundamental belief that we are stronger and better as a nation when everyone is succeeding; when people are being lifted out of poverty; when people feel that the deck is not stacked against them, that the get the rewards of their hard work. The wealthy and the well-connected have had their president. Now it's time for a president for everybody else again.
And it's not enough just to undo the damage that we will inherit. Let's think about what we can do to set a new course. And that begins with an investment in a clean energy future, a declaration of energy independence, just like our original...
COOPER: If you listen to both these candidates, what goes through your mind?
BORGER: I think they sound an awful lot alike, actually, if you listen to both of them. And that's -- I think that's one of the reasons the Democrats, both are so intrigued by this campaign, because they like what both of these candidates are saying on the issues, and one reason they're kind of turning off at the end of this campaign, because they're attacking each other personally.
You know, these are both good candidates as far as Democrats are concerned who believe in a lot of the same things.
COOPER: We're going to have to leave it there with our panel tonight. Thanks very much, Mark Halperin, Joe Klein, both of "TIME" magazine, and Gloria Borger, as well. Thank you very much. Erica Hill joins us again with a quick update, "360 News and Business Bulletin" -- Erica.
HILL: Anderson, federal prosecutors say a Georgia military contractor tricked law enforcement agencies into buying faulty stun grenades. The company allegedly claimed to have corrected a defect in the weapons but had not.
Prosecutors say three FIB agents were seriously injured as a result. Three company officials are now facing charges of conspiracy, fraud, among other charges.
The new average for a gallon of gas, $3.50 for self-serve regular. That is the highest average ever recorded by AAA. A year ago, the average price for a gallon of gas: $2.85. Sounds like a bargain now.
And over the weekend, former President George H. Bush caught and released a mammoth tarpon while fishing in the Florida Keys. It weighed in at an estimated 135 pounds, a personal best for the 84- year-old Bush.
COOPER: Wow, big fish. I'm glad there was a photo, because otherwise, it would be one of those stories. Like, "It was this big."
HILL: A bit of a fishing story, yes.
COOPER: Coming up at the top of the hour, a battle with a lot more at stake than who wins Pennsylvania: the planet's future. Tonight, the night before Earth Day, a special presentation of "Planet in Peril." Stay tuned.
