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Anderson Cooper 360 Degrees
Clinton Wins Pennsylvania Primary
Aired April 22, 2008 - ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We can tell everyone what they need to hear about the challenges we face. We can seek to regain not just an office but the trust of the American people; that their leaders in Washington will tell them the truth. That's the choice in this election.
We can be a party of those who only think like we do and only agree with all our positions. We can continue to slice and dice this country in the red states and blue states. We can exploit the divisions that exist in our country for pure political gain.
Or this time, we can build on the movement we started in this campaign, a movement that's united Democrats, independents, Republicans, young, old, rich, poor, white, black, Hispanic, Asian, native American, gay, straight, because one thing I know, from traveling 46 states this campaign season is that we are not as divided as our politics suggest. We may have different stories. We may have different backgrounds. But we hold common hopes for the future of this country that we love.
In the end, this election is still our best chance to solve the problems we've been talking about for decades; as one nation, as one people. Fourteen months later, that is still what this election is about. Millions of Americans who believe we can do better. That we must do better; that that is what's put us in the position to bring about real change.
Now it's up to you, Evansville. Now it's up to you, Indiana. You can decide -- you can decide whether we are going to travel the same worn path or whether we will chart a new course that offers real hope for the future.
During the course of this campaign, we've all learned what my wife reminds me all the time that I'm not a perfect man. I will not be a perfect president. And so while I will always listen to you and be honest with you and fight for you every single day for the next four or eight years I will also -- I will also, should I have the opportunity to serve as your president, ask you to be a part of the change that we need. Because in my two decades of public service in this country, I have seen time and time again that real change doesn't begin in the halls of Washington, but on the streets of America.
It doesn't happen from the top down, but it happens from the bottom up. I also know that real change has never been easy and it won't be easy this time either. The status quo in Washington will fight. They will fight harder than ever to divide us and distract us with ads and attacks from now until November.
But don't ever forget that you have the power to change this country. You can make this election about how we're going to help -- you can make this election about how we're going to help those workers in Logan's port. How we're going to retrain them and educate them and make our work force competitive in a global economy.
You can make this election about how we're going to make health care affordable for that family in North Carolina. How we're going to help those families sitting around the kitchen table tonight, pay their bills and stay in their homes. You can make this election about how we plan to leave our children, all our children a planet that's safer in a world that still sees America the same way my father saw it from across the ocean, as a beacon of all that is good and all that is possible for all of mankind.
Now is our turn to follow in the footsteps of all those generations who sacrificed and struggled and faced down the greatest odds to perfect our improbable union. And if we're willing to do what they did, if we're willing to shed our cynicism and our doubts and our fears, if we're willing to believe in what's possible again, then I believe we won't just win this primary election. We won't just win here in Indiana. We won't just win this election in November, we will change this country, we will change the world.
We will keep this country's promise alive in the 21st century. That's our task. That's our job. Let's get to work. Thank you! May God bless you! God bless the United States of America.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Barack Obama already in Evansville, Indiana, already moved on from Pennsylvania. Two weeks until Indiana and North Carolina go to the polls.
Let's go to Wolf Blitzer for the latest look at the numbers -- Wolf.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN CO-ANCHER: All right, thanks Anderson. As we show those pictures of Barack Obama in Evansville, Indiana, let's look at the actual numbers. We projected Hillary Clinton the winner, with 84 percent of the precincts now reporting, she's got a 10-point lead; 55 percent for Hillary Clinton, 45 percent for Barack Obama. A lot of the pundits subjected she needed a double digit victory in Pennsylvania to show the superdelegates she's more electable.
Right now with 85 percent, she's got that 10 percent advantage. We'll see if it holds up with the 15 percent remaining that has not yet been counted comes in; 1,041,000 for Hillary Clinton, 850,000 or so for Barack Obama. It's a pretty impressive 10-point win with 85 percent of the precincts now in.
If you look at the counties in the state of Pennsylvania, the light blue are counties where she's ahead right now. The dark blue are counties where Barack Obama is ahead right now. You see in Philadelphia he's ahead. But pretty much in the rest of the state, she is doing so much better than Barack Obama. Let's analyze that with John King. Exactly how she managed to achieve this -- I must say -- rather impressive win, especially given the fact the last several days of this campaign she was heavily outspent by Barack Obama in terms of TV commercials and other advertising.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: When you go county by county, Wolf, especially as we get up, you mentioned we're getting more of the vote now, we're up to 85 percent. It is stunning what you see the divide in this state of Pennsylvania that will be the topic, the topic of discussion in Democratic Party circles and you can bet in the McCain campaign tonight as they look at this numbers.
Let's start down here where Obama did well. In Philadelphia -- remember at the beginning of the night, we said their dream was come out of here with an 80,000, a 90,000 vote margin. They needed at least that to have any chance to compete statewide.
Look at this. Look at this. He is winning by 130,000 votes. That's a huge margin in Philadelphia. Even more than they thought they could get. He did usually well with African-Americans obviously.
But let's shrink this down a little bit. What else did we say at the beginning of the night was critical? The suburban counties. He is winning, at the moment, in Delaware County but just barely. He is winning over here in Chester County, but just barely.
Now, look what's happening here. In Bucks County, Senator Clinton is winning; 64 percent - 36 percent with about half of the vote in. In Montgomery County, Senator Clinton again carrying the day. Why? If you look right in these areas of these counties, closer in to Philadelphia, they are white, blue collar working middle class. The houses are closer together. Many of them if you travel those neighborhoods could use a paint job. They are not the old farms turned into affluent suburbs that you see out in this area.
She's winning with blue collar voters and, Wolf, this pattern continues across the state. A problem for Barack Obama; put simply, he did not win the white vote. Did not make significant inroads with the white vote in Pennsylvania.
Let's look at Scranton, Senator Clinton, 74 percent to 26 percent. Some will say well, she has roots in Scranton. Well, then let's keep moving down the map, 75 percent to 25 percent. Let's jump down to Allentown, 74 percent to 26 percent. Reading, here 58 percent, a little better up to 42 percent.
Let's shrink the map down and move out west. Another blue collar county; Erie Pennsylvania, about as blue-collar lunch-bucket, white Catholic as you can get - 63 to 37 percent. All down, many of these are very tiny counties. They are tiny counties but 63-37.
Out in white blue collar rural Pennsylvania, Senator Clinton just thumped him; 75 percent, 70-30 down there, Washington county just outside of Pittsburgh. In Pittsburgh itself, where you have a changing economy, more health care driven, high tech driven, 10 percent of the population, Obama did do better. He lost 55 percent, 45 percent where you have young professionals and some African- American voters, he did better.
But when you get out into these white rural counties, 79-21; 72- 28. If you look across the breadth of the state, small African- American population here. Out here, you'll say, well, he did win in the center, but there are no people; 11,000 people for Barack Obama; very small counties where he is winning. There are some schools out in these areas.
You look at the geographical expanse -- he did better than they thought they needed to do in Philadelphia powered by the African- American vote. That is a big plus for Barack Obama. He not only gets high percentages, he turns out the vote.
But across the rest of the state, Hillary Clinton's argument will be he cannot win the so-called Casey Democrats, they call them here, in the state of Pennsylvania, Reagan Democrats will call them elsewhere. They're culturally conservative, blue collar Democrats. Many of them own guns, many of them are Catholics who can be swayed, were swayed by people like Ronald Reagan if you want to go back into '80 when Ronald Reagan won this state in '84. Ronald Reagan, of course, was winning everywhere.
This is the year Democrats will focus on now. The last time a Republican won Pennsylvania was George H.W. Bush in 1988. His problem with the white working class vote and with older whites in Pennsylvania is something that will be talked about in Democratic Party circles all week long.
BLITZER: And what I want to talk with you, John, -- we have got some more time -- I want to talk about the lessons that superdelegates will learn, will draw from this win with Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, how she did it. Right now once again with 85 percent of the precincts reporting, she's got a 10-point lead, 55 percent to 45 percent.
We're going to take a quick break. Much more of our coverage from the CNN Center. Remember, cnnpolitics.com is where you can get county by county, all the latest information as we get it, you'll see it there as well. A lot of other useful information are coming in.
We're assessing what has happened tonight and where we all go from here. Hillary Clinton right now ahead by ten points. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COOPER: Welcome back to our continuing coverage of this exciting election night. Again, you can follow along, getting all the numbers as we get them in at cnnpolitics.com.
Let's check in with Bill Schneider and Soledad O'Brien who are looking at the exit polls; in particular, what we can learn from the exit polls tonight and what it tells us about the race ahead in Indiana, North Carolina and elsewhere. Bill, Soledad? SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Anderson, I think something that's really sticking out to us of course is that 10 percent figure. You have just under 90 percent of the precincts reporting and it looks like Hillary at this point if that stands is going to get that double digit win. What does this say to you?
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: 10 percent, this is an important figure. Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama in neighboring New Jersey by 10 percent. She beat Barack Obama in neighboring Ohio by 10 percent. She beat Barack Obama right now in Pennsylvania right between New Jersey and Ohio by 10 percent.
What does this suggest? It suggests after six weeks of campaigning, nothing much changed. That 10 percent margin seems to be very stable.
O'BRIEN: All right, take a closer look for me, if you will, at education. What did you see in that breakdown?
SCHNEIDER: Take a look at college graduates in Pennsylvania. They have usually delivered for Obama. They barely did, 51 percent to 49 percent. And you know what? That's almost exactly the same vote that was cast by college graduates on March 4th, seven weeks ago in Ohio; the same vote.
O'BRIEN: How about voters who didn't have a college degree?
SCHNEIDER: Voters who didn't have a college degree voted heavily for Hillary Clinton, 58 percent to 42 percent. And you know what? That's the same way they voted in Ohio. But that's important for another reason.
It means that the comments that were so controversial that Barack Obama made about bitter voters didn't have much impact. Nothing changed. It's amazing.
O'BRIEN: All right. Well then, let's look ahead with the remaining primaries that we have. What does this all signify to you?
SCHNEIDER: There are three more states that border Ohio after Pennsylvania that have yet to vote; Kentucky, which is a little poorer than Pennsylvania and Ohio, West Virginia, which is poorer, and Indiana. All those states border Ohio. The pattern that we're seeing suggests that there is a kind of demographic fix, you know what they say -- demography is destiny.
If that's the case, those states should do very well for Hillary Clinton. Indiana is close because about 20 percent of Indiana voters live in the Chicago media market, so they may be influenced to vote for Barack Obama. But the fact is, Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia look good for Hillary Clinton.
North Carolina is not anywhere near Ohio. That looks pretty good for Barack Obama because it not only has a large black population but it also has a lot of affluent voters in the triangle area.
O'BRIEN: That's what we're seeing. Anderson we'll send it back to you.
COOPER: All right, fascinating numbers.
David Gergen, when you hear Bill Schneider saying that the so- called "bitter" comments didn't really have much of an impact if you look at those -- comparing those polls, do you buy that?
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: No. Look, I think the thing was closing. What we know is -- I think these things have an accordion-like effect. He was closing. He was closing in on her. He was getting down to three, four, five points in some of the polls.
I think that if this is really a ten-point race that is a major victory for her. That's a much bigger victory we were looking at only an hour or two ago.
COOPER: Much bigger than 8 percent.
GERGEN: It's significant and symbolically important and I think what John King was reporting about the white blue collar vote is sobering news for Democrats.
COOPER: That's stunning. I mean, if she's running 70 percent to his 30 percent among whites in rural parts of Pennsylvania, that is not good news for Barack Obama.
GERGEN: It is nod good news for Barack Obama and what I think it does suggest is that as he was closing not only did he stall, but he actually got hurt in the white communities by these controversial comments.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: What you're seeing is core strength on core strength. And that is from the outset of this race, we said the exact same thing. These are Hillary Clinton's core voters; blue collar voters, those who have a high school diploma or who don't, but not educated. You look at Obama in terms of those who have college degrees, African-American for her, it was women. So they've maintained that.
The issue really here is that you have two extremely strong candidates who are appealing to the major Democratic constituencies. The question then is, how do -- how does one person, able to pull those together to beat John McCain?
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: If the Democratic Party right now has a problem because this victory convinces Democrats, probably superdelegates, that Barack Obama has some serious problems with the voters.
COOPER: You can hear the arguments being run to the superdelegates already right now --
BORGER: Absolutely.
COOPER: -- saying he cannot close the deal. He outspends 2-1, 3-1 the Clinton campaign says and yet he cannot close the deal BORGER: So he's got problems with these blue collar voters, the Catholic voters. Those are serious problems for any Democrat.
On the other hand, this may not be enough to turn the tide for Hillary Clinton. So the superdelegates are saying do we -- they're asking themselves do we have a damaged candidate here and how do you undo it or do you change?
MARTIN: But Gloria, is the problem though that he has a problem with blue collar voters or she's simply better at blue collar voters? Because if you look at Wisconsin what happened there? You look at Missouri, what happened there? I think that is what superdelegates have to figure out and that is, we have two great candidates here --
BORGER: Well, we have to figure out what John McCain's appeal would be.
GERGEN: I agree with that. Just because somebody votes for Hillary Clinton does not mean they're not going to vote for Barack if he becomes the nominee. So a lot of the blue-collar people go but the question is what percentage you can get.
I think this puts pressure now on both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Indiana. Indiana is becoming a really pivotal state.
COOPER: More than North Carolina?
BORGER: Yes.
GERGEN: I think she needs to -- it's important that she's going to North Carolina tomorrow. Bill Clinton has five events in North Carolina tomorrow. They clearly want to put that in play and bring that number down to see if they can get --
BORGER: He continues to win Indiana, really he does.
GERGEN: So does she, I mean there are --
BORGER: Yes.
COOPER: We've got to go to a break. We're going to take a lot more ahead. We have got a lot more time still. We'll be right back. More politics ahead.
Stay tuned.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COOPER: We heard earlier in the last hour from Hillary Clinton at a victory rally in Pennsylvania. Let's listen to some of what she had to say earlier.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm in this race to fight for you. To fight -- to fight for everyone who has ever been counted out, for everyone fighting to pay the grocery bills and the medical bills, the credit card and mortgage payments. And the outrageous price of gas at the pump today.
You know, the pundits questioned whether Pennsylvanians would trust me with this charge and tonight you showed you do. You know you can count on me to stand up strong for you every single day in the White House. This is a historic race and I commend Senator Obama and his supporters tonight.
We are in many ways all on this journey together. To create an America that embraces every last one of us. The women in their 90's who tell me they were born before women could vote. And they're hopeful of seeing a woman in the White House. The mothers and fathers at my events who lift their little girls on their shoulders and whisper in their ears, see, you can be anything you want.
Tonight, tonight more than ever, I need your help to continue this journey. This is your campaign and this is your victory tonight. Your support has meant the difference between winning and losing. Now, we can only keep winning if we can keep competing with an opponent who outspends us so massively. So I hope you'll go to HillaryClinton.com and show your support tonight because the future of this campaign is in your hands.
You know, some people counted me out and said to drop out. But the American people -- well, the American people don't quit and they deserve a president who doesn't quit either.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: Hillary Clinton echoing some of the themes she has talked about a lot in Pennsylvania over the last several weeks.
Let's also listen to what some of Barack Obama had to say. He's already in Indiana this evening, already focusing on that primary which is two weeks away, the same day as the North Carolina primary. From Obama we heard a lot about John McCain tonight and the differences between the Republican and Democratic parties. Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: We already know John McCain offers more of the same. So the question is not whether the other party will bring about change to Washington, we know they won't. The question is, will we? That's the question we face in this election. Because, because --
Because, because the truth is, the challenges we face are not just the fault of one man or one party. I mean, think about it. How many years, how many decades have we been talking about solving our health care crisis? How many presidents have promised to end our dependence on foreign oil? How many jobs have gone overseas in the '70s and the '80s and the '90s and we still haven't done anything about it, and we know why.
In every election, politicians come to your cities and your towns and they tell you what you want to hear. And they make big promises. And they lay out all these plans and policies. But then they go back to Washington when the campaign's over. Lobbyists spend millions of dollars to get their way. The status quo sets in, and instead of fighting for health care or jobs, Washington ends up fighting over the latest distraction of the week.
It happens year after year after year after year, and this is our chance to say, not this year. This is our chance to say not this time. We have a choice in this election.
We can be a party that says there's no problem with taking money from Washington lobbyists; the moral lobbyists, the drug lobbyists and the insurance lobbyists. We can pretend that they represent real Americans and look the other way when they use their money and influence to stop us from reforming health care or investing in renewable energy for yet for another four years.
Or this time, we can recognize that you can't be the champion of working Americans if you're funded by lobbyists who drown out their voices. We can do what we've done in this campaign and say we won't take a dime of their money. We can do what I did in Illinois and Washington to bring in both parties together to rein in their power so we can take our government back. That's the choice we have in this election.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COOPER: Barack Obama earlier tonight at a campaign rally in the state of Indiana.
Again, we're looking at 93 percent of the vote in, 45 percent to Hillary Clinton's 55 percent in Pennsylvania. A lot of politics ahead. We have the best political team on television standing by; a deep bench tonight. We'll join them in just a moment after a short break.
We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Hillary Clinton a winner in Pennsylvania, an impressive win for Hillary Clinton. Ten points as of right now; 55 percent to 45 percent. John King is here.
John, I want to show our viewers some popular vote scenarios because the undecided superdelegates are critical right now. The undecided superdelegates, they're going to be swayed on who is more electable in November against John McCain.
We've taken a look to see where it stands right now. And all the primaries to date right now, this is popular vote scenario number one. Just the primaries, so far and we've updated it to include Pennsylvania, which is now over with.
Take a look at this; 49 percent for Obama, 48 percent for Hillary Clinton, 14,298,000 for Obama, 13,942,000 for Clinton. Very close, but he has a slight advantage when you take a look at all the primary states only.
KING: This is just primary states. A big difference if you're a very patient viewer and were with us throughout the night; earlier when we did this, Senator Clinton has picked up about 200,000 votes because of her margin in Pennsylvania. They're still counting the final precincts but she has had a net gain tonight of about 200,000 votes that makes this close margin even closer.
The challenge for her in the nine contests remaining is to close that gap even more because if he's ahead in pledged delegates, her argument to the superdelegates is I'm winning at the end, I closed the pledged delegate gap, look at the popular vote. She needs to be closer or better her argument would be if she could get ahead.
It's hard to do because Pennsylvania was such a big state. This was the biggest opportunity to make up ground and she narrowed it but didn't quite get there.
BLITZER: And the primary states, the popular vote, it's not that easy to define right now. I want to point out we're not including Michigan and Florida in scenario number one.
Let's walk over to scenario number two. Here we've added the caucus -- the caucus states, the estimates from the caucus states. Not easy to do that because in some of the states where there are caucuses, they don't release the popular vote, they just release what they call the delegate equivalent. They have all sorts of arcane formulas to come forward.
If you add up, and we're not including Michigan or Florida, the primaries and the caucuses, 49 percent for Obama, 47 percent for Clinton, he's done better in the caucuses than she has; 14,800,000 or so for Obama, 14,245,000 for Clinton.
KING: And Obama makes the case here, of course you would count these states. You might say they are red states; many of those states are mountain west states, they have caucuses. Democrats don't count on them in the November scenario, but Barack Obama would say we certainly count on them going into our convention. Those are good, loyal Democrats.
And look, he has a bigger advantage there. So if you count in the caucuses, a bigger advantage for Obama, again reminding you that if you're having a competition for the superdelegates, they're going to look at these numbers along with the pledged delegates along with several other factors. Barack Obama needs to stay ahead in these counts as we go forward. And Senator Clinton's argument gets stronger the more she can narrow it. So Obama likes scenario two best of all.
BLITZER: About a 600,000 gap in scenario number two.
Let's walk over and take a look at scenario number three. Here we've added in all the primaries, all the caucuses, plus Pennsylvania, which we now know, and we've also included Florida but not Michigan. Why Florida? Because there was an election in Florida; no one campaigned there, but all the names were on the ballot. She won, so there is an argument that some will make that Florida should be included.
If you take look at the gap in this scenario, 48 percent for Obama, 47 percent for Clinton, 15,390,000 for Obama, 15,117,000, a difference of about 250,000. It's a lot closer when you add up the Pennsylvania and you include Florida, the primaries and caucuses.
KING: And you have heard Senator Clinton say this before. You will hear her say it a lot in the days and weeks ahead that we need Florida in November. So of course we need to factor them in when we make decisions about who should be our nominee.
She would make the case and Obama would say I didn't campaign there, I didn't run ads there; you were better known there. It shouldn't count. She would make the case, George W. Bush is president because of Florida and the Supreme Court. But we need it in November. You need to count those votes.
Again in this scenario, Clinton would argue she has a stronger case with the superdelegates, counting this map. And she would argue as well, we're not doing it because his name was not on the ballot. She would argue as well, if you are going to disenfranchise Michigan and Florida, you're going to hurt the party in November.
So all of these scenarios, we're showing them to our viewers; we're talking about them, guess what? The Clinton campaign and to a degree the Obama campaign are sharing these numbers with the superdelegates saying when you have to make your decision in the end, this is what we want you to consider.
BLITZER: And as we look at all this, we can't ignore the fact there are still 400 or so undecided superdelegates and if you look at all the various permutations, they will be the ones who will decide the Democratic nominee.
KING: A lot of pressure on them. The Obama campaign especially wants them to come out now to send a message to Senator Clinton that you can keep staying in, but the math is not fundamentally changing in your favor, so you're going to hurt the party.
But if there is a message tonight to the superdelegates in one word, I believe that word is "wait." See what happens in Indiana and North Carolina.
BLITZER: We're waiting. We got two weeks until Indiana and North Carolina, May 6. Two weeks from tonight and we'll be right here in the same place.
Let's go back to Anderson. He is going to be here as well. You're not going anywhere, Anderson. None of us are going anywhere.
COOPER: It never ends. It never ends. It keeps going on and on and on. I feel like I've been here every day of my life.
Jamal Simmons, how much -- as a supporter of Barack Obama, how much does it concern you when you see John King with the map and you see those huge areas in Pennsylvania among white voters, 70 percent going for Hillary Clinton, 30 percent for Barack Obama?
JAMAL SIMMONS, BARACK OBAMA SUPPORTER: Well, he's got some work to do. I mean that's very clear. But one thing we've seen, I think, Roland said this a few minutes, one thing we've seen is that these voters who are for Hillary Clinton are solidly for Hillary Clinton. And the ones who are for Barack Obama are solidly for Barack Obama.
Now, the question becomes what happens in the general election when Hillary Clinton's name is no longer an option for these and they have a Democrat who wants to end the war, fix the recession in the economy, give them health care versus a Republican who wants to keep the war going, who doesn't have a good economic plan, doesn't have a universal health care plan? What happens at that moment these voters decide I don't want to go with somebody to want to change things and make things better for me or I will just go with John McCain?
So I think when you get to that question, you actually still have an advantage for Barack Obama. Right now --
COOPER: That's if he can get to the general election.
SIMMONS: If he can get to the general election. But, it looks like that's where he's headed. Right now, we're seeing an intramural fight between Democrats, and there are some voters who just like Hillary Clinton, that's just the end of the argument.
COOPER: Paul, we're hearing from the Clinton campaign, they've raised $2.5 million since Pennsylvania was called for Hillary Clinton earlier this evening. They say 80 percent of the money is coming from new donors.
PAUL BEGALA, HILLARY CLINTON SUPPORTER: They need it and good for them. It's what happens when you start to do better --
COOPER: What is the path forward for Hillary Clinton?
BEGALA: I think she has got -- look, she's got to go win Indiana and I was there last week and she was slightly behind in Indiana. She has got to try to make a stand in North Carolina. She has very little chance there frankly. I talked to a member of the congressional delegation of North Carolina today who said I think Barack is going to win the state big.
She's got to win out; maybe six out of the last nine, maybe seven out of the last nine. But then she's going to make a case to the superdelegates that goes like this. Barack's wonderful, almost unprecedented combination of really highly-educated Democrats and African-Americans is hard to hold together and good for him. He's done it. Her combination of blue collar white folks and Latinos are probably harder, she will argue, to get in a general election against John McCain who has his own appeal to blue collar white folks and Latinos.
So I think she will argue that she's better with voters that McCain is going to try to target. COOPER: And you argue that she can move forward and she can do well without tearing down Barack Obama?
BEGALA: She can. I mean I'm all for attacks. I generally prefer negative campaigning. When I donate to campaigns I always write in a little memo -- for negative campaigning. So I'm not going soft on you --
COOPER: Are you sure?
BEGALA: Yes.
COOPER: Wow.
BEGALA: Because you know, I like fighting. But on this, she's got to be careful. I think there are doubts now that have been sewn about Senator Obama both by her and by the media and by his own comments, some of them inartful. Now she has got to humanize Hillary. She did that tonight. She needs to open a window on her heart; much harder to do but that is what she's got to do.
COOPER: Republican strategist Alex Castellanos.
ALEX CASTELLANOS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: But if she rips the nomination out of Barack Obama's hands at this late moment, even in a close race at the end, it's going to be Armageddon for the Democratic Party. There is --
COOPER: Because there's going to be so much bad blood?
CASTELLANOS: Because there's going to be so much bad blood. I mean, it's not going to be a clear knockout blow. It's going to be superdelegates behind closed doors doing this. Is the black base of the Democratic Party going to allow that?
It's going to be a tough, tough decision. We're all sitting here saying yes, Barack Obama may have some problems in a general election. Hillary might be a stronger candidate, but is she a stronger candidate if she goes into a general election with a divided party?
Tonight may have been the last night for Hillary Clinton to actually take the exit ramp from that tough decision for the Democratic --
COOPER: We're going to hear from Jeff Toobin and Amy Holmes in a moment. I do have to take a short break though. We will have more from our panel just after this break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Hillary Clinton needed a decisive, impressive win tonight. That is what she has in Pennsylvania; a ten-point lead, 55 percent to 45 percent. Hillary Clinton survives, moves on to the next two states; Indiana and North Carolina. Two weeks from today on May 6th. Bill Schneider, Soledad O'Brien have been crunching some of the numbers right now, specifically in these exit polls that we did all day today, Soledad, on the very sensitive and important matter of voting and religion.
O'BRIEN: Yes, absolutely. It's a breakdown that we haven't taken a look at yet. So we wanted to see if we could get a little closer to the why behind this 10 percent margin. So let's look first at Catholic voters and who they turned to.
SCHNEIDER: Catholic voters in Pennsylvania, like Catholic voters in Ohio and most, not all, but most previous primary states voted very heavily for Hillary Clinton; two-thirds of them voted for Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania. She won -- look at this, 69 percent to 31 percent. That's a huge margin in Pennsylvania.
O'BRIEN: How many actual voters is that?
SCHNEIDER: That's 37 percent of the voters in Pennsylvania were Catholic, many more than in Ohio, which was 23 percent. But in state after state after state, Catholic voters have delivered for Hillary Clinton, who is not Catholic, her husband is not Catholic.
O'BRIEN: Why do you think that is?
SCHNEIDER: I don't know. There's been a lot of speculation. I've heard a lot of theories. None of them seem very persuasive. But the fact is, Catholics have been a very solid constituency for Hillary Clinton in state after state. And here in Pennsylvania, they were key to her victory.
O'BRIEN: What about Jewish voters?
SCHNEIDER: Jewish voters, in Pennsylvania they were enough to measure. They are only 7 percent of the voters, they're a small group. And there's been a lot of discussion about Barack Obama's supposed Jewish problem. He met with leaders in Philadelphia, Jewish leaders.
Take a look. Jewish voters voted for Clinton 57 percent, Obama 43 percent, which means it was pretty close among Jewish voters. They did vote for Hillary Clinton. Obama got a respectable share of the Jewish vote at 43 percent. Which means all the talk about his Jewish problem may be a bit overstated.
I think the basis of the problem, and I've spoken to many Jewish leaders, the story about this is, Jewish leaders don't know him very well. And they want to find out more about him. That's exactly why he met with them to reassure them that he was okay on their important issues.
O'BRIEN: So how religion might provide some insight on this 10 percent margin there.
BLITZER: It's interesting he does better with Jewish voters, Bill and Soledad, than he does with Catholic voters. And your mission, Bill Schneider, is to find out why.
O'BRIEN: No probably theory there. We were just talking about that. There's not really been any theory that you can say hmm, that sounds like it makes a lot of sense.
BLITZER: I wonder if that is sort consistent in other states where there's a significant Jewish population that we can see how the Catholic around Jewish vote may have differed.
SCHNEIDER: Well, I've seen the Jewish vote in some other states and you know, the Jewish vote has been divided all over the country. About four or five states where it was measurable, Jewish voters voted for Clinton. And in the other four or five states, Jewish voters went for Obama. They're divided just like Democrats.
BLITZER: The Democrats are pretty divided right now. All right guys. Thanks very much.
Let's check in with Larry King. We've got a special program, a live program coming up in a few minutes at the top of the hour.
Larry, give us a preview.
LARRY KING, CNN HOST: Wolf, we are the wrap-up show. It's been quite a night and we're going to keep the ball rolling with analysis and interviews. Plus, we'll crunch the final numbers from the Pennsylvania primary. It's a special "Larry King Live" to wind up the day at the top of the hour -- Wolf. Can the wizards win?
BLITZER: The Washington Wizards, Thursday night, game three in Washington against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Larry, I will be there.
L. KING: I know you will. I've got to be on the air in Washington or I will be there.
BLITZER: Yes. Unfortunately the Wizards have not done very well so far but there's always hope.
Let's walk over to Anderson Cooper; he's watching all of this as well. Larry is a great sports fan, Anderson, so am I.
COOPER: And I know nothing about sports. I'm not even going to pretend.
Jeff Toobin, who probably does know something about sports, our senior analyst; the 10 percent figure, the difference between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Pennsylvania you say is the worst of all scenarios for both sides.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: It is the worst -- this is the train wreck scenario, because Barack Obama is revealed as a candidate with real serious flaws. Hillary Clinton inflicted the damage tonight but doesn't appear to have any route to the nomination.
So this result, not a complete blowout by Hillary, but not a close race where Obama could claim any sort of victory, leaves the nomination completely unsettled and the fight to continue just as brutally as before with, you know, eight more primaries to go.
COOPER: Amy Holmes, do you see a ray of hope for Barack Obama in some of these exit polls?
AMY HOLMES, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Sure, it's really interesting in the exit polling after the Jeremiah Wright incident, clinging to guns and religion. The big question for Barack Obama was, is he out of touch with the Pennsylvania voter and really, the average American voter?
And in this exit polling, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, they both got about two-thirds of the vote equally that said that they were in touch. So I think what this suggests to Barack Obama is to reach out to those blue collar voters. He really needs to look at the economic pitch.
And you heard that actually tonight in his I think overly long defeat speech I have to say for myself, but where he really started touching on economic conditions and what he wants to do. And it's an election about changing all the things that Jamal, at the end of the table talks about.
But I do see there is a ray of hope there, but as Jeffrey was saying and I said earlier, she's in it to spin it and now her spin seems all the more compelling tonight after a 10-point win when she was in with less money, she was outraced, outspent. Her approval ratings are actually dismal nationally. Her trustworthy ratings, only six in ten voters don't think she's trustworthy and still she won Pennsylvania by ten points.
TOOBIN: I think it's hard to say that Barack Obama should have done x,y, and z. He campaigned there for six weeks. He spent what is it, $12 million on ads, almost three times as much as she did. It's not like he didn't put his best foot forward. He did and Pennsylvania voters said no thanks. And I think that's a very troubling fact for him.
CASTELLANOS: In the exit polling, I think 54 percent of the voters thought Barack Obama would get the nomination still. Yet -- and I think only 43 percent thought Hillary would get the nomination, yet she carried Pennsylvania. So even though they're not ready to put Hillary Clinton out to pasture just yet, even though they don't think she can win.
COOPER: Alex, you're a Republican. When you hear Democrats hammering about the bitterness of this campaign, about using Osama Bin Laden in an ad as Hillary Clinton did just the other day, when you hear them talk about the bitterness comments, all these things, do you kid of shake your head? Isn't all this stuff, stuff Republicans will be bringing up in the general election?
CASTELLANOS: It's a shame we just can't all get along. We see so much divisiveness over this. I think this is exactly why --
COOPER: I mean, the general election campaign by the Republicans, already pretty clear what -- CASTELLANOS: She's running the ads Republicans would love to be running now but we don't have to because Hillary Clinton is doing it. Yes, it would be hard for a Republican to run an ad with Osama Bin Laden in it. Not so much now because Hillary has already done it against Obama.
It would be difficult for a Republican to run an ad questioning does Barack Obama have the strength of character to lead the country? Well not so much now because Hillary has already done it. A Republican running an ad about is he out of touch with elite and main stream values. Well, that's not so hard to do now because Hillary has already done it against Barack Obama.
BEGALA: Yes because otherwise the Republicans are so timid, they're so shy. They need permission from Hillary Clinton to run negative ads.
Come on, they're going to go after either one of these with everything they got. The question is, is this primary making them tougher and smarter and better? And I think it is.
Again, this is not a bitter primary. We have such short memories. Go back to 2000 in South Carolina, the Republican primary. Supporters of George W. Bush --
COOPER: Do we have to?
BEGALA: But that was bitter. They attacked John McCain's wife, they attacked his child, they attacked his POW experience and war heroism. And yet George W. Bush almost won the national election that November. He tied and (INAUDIBLE) stole it for him. So it didn't exactly cripple George W. Bush to be the nominee in a bitter and divisive primary in 2000.
It's not going to cripple Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to go through this now. It is everywhere they go, turnout goes up. If this were bitter and divisive, turnout would go down. Everywhere they go people are switching registration from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party. If this were bitter and divisive, they would not do that. So Democrats stop ringing their hands, start rolling up their sleeves and get ready for a fight. It's good for you.
COOPER: Paul's spin is very --
TOOBIN: They're ready, it's been going on for months.
BEGALA: I like it. Family fights are sometimes bitter but they're also sometimes healthy and cleansing. My uncle George said God gave us families so we wouldn't have to fight with strangers. God gave us primaries so we can warm up for the general.
CASTELLANOS: The part Paul is of course not focusing on is that are the Republican attacks on Obama going to be held as credible and legitimate? And they are now because they were made by Democrats.
SIMMONS: Right, they're strengthened because the Democrats came at Hillary Clinton first -- came at Barack Obama first. So if he is the nominee, I do think this is going to have some impact. And we've all got to be a little bit nervous about that. I hope that Paul is right, we figure this out. The one difference is we have two candidates who people feel personally identified to because of their personal characteristics.
COOPER: I want to go over here to this panel. John King, polls in North Carolina and Indiana two weeks away, what are we looking at right now?
J. KING: Right now, North Carolina Obama is ahead. It's the state that we looked at the neighborhood tonight and said why is Hillary Clinton favored in Pennsylvania? Because you look at Ohio, you look at where she won in New Jersey, her strength even in rural Maryland, a state that Obama carried but not up in the rural areas.
North Carolina should be Obama. They have a significant African- American population. It will perform more like those southern states he did very well in. Hillary Clinton does have an opportunity; there is a white rural vote there. She needs to think about appealing directly to that and trying to shrink the margins.
Indiana is more of a battle ground. A lot of the -- someone said earlier about 25 percent of the voters do get Chicago TV. So they're familiar with Barack Obama. He's not new to them. They see him there. There's an urban and suburban area up there close to Chicago. That is a white rural working class state.
Senator Clinton should win that state and you know what? Now we're on to two weeks of "she has to win again." She can't lose both of those states. There's no way she can lose both on May 6th and raise $2.5 million as she did tonight after winning Pennsylvania.
COOPER: And are we two weeks from now, going to be arguing over what a win in Indiana really means? I mean Hillary Clinton, you know -- is a win a win?
BORGER: No, we won't, because it's not Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton was ahead 20 points a month ago and the lead narrowed and then it may have been frozen because of Obama's mistakes.
Right now there may be a four or five-point difference between the candidates but it's close, so it's kind of ground zero in a way. And he can prove there, if he were to win, that he could win those rust belt constituencies that he didn't win in Ohio, that we didn't win in Pennsylvania and he could blunt that argument that she's making to the superdelegates.
MARTIN: Anderson, Obama needs to run what I call a quasi-general election, primary campaign. And his language must change. He must begin to say frankly to white voters -- around this time there is a great piece saying the Republicans are (INAUDIBLE) I have a 15 percent advantage because of the whole of race.
He has to challenge white voters to say -- white Democrats to say, you know what? What are you going to do, are you going to vote your economic interests or are you going to choose to look at who my pastor was or whatever, what are you going to vote for? Are you going to vote for the guy who wants tax cuts, people who don't make what you make or are you going to vote for the Democrats?
They also must challenge John McCain and say okay, John, you say you're Mr. Small Town America, guess what? Most of these troops going to Iraq, they are coming from small town America. Why, because don't have economic opportunities. They don't have jobs to go to.
They must transition the language to challenge those Reagan Democrats to say, you need to be making decisions in November that are tied to your economic interests and that blue collar worker in a rural Indiana is the same as a worker in inner city Chicago.
COOPER: Does Barack Obama need to address the perception that he is not -- I mean Bill Bennett said it earlier tonight that he is far to the left of the American center. That he used to appear to know where the American center was. Bill Bennett is saying he now is this far left candidate. Does he need to somehow address the bitterness, address the Wright comments, address all of this in some way to the American people?
GERGEN: I think he does. I think he needs to surround himself with more Bob Caseys. When he got the endorsement this week of Sam Nunn and David Boren, two more conservative or moderate Democrats, that was helpful to him. He needs to be traveling with some of those people.
She's going to go to North Carolina tomorrow and have Hugh Shelton, the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, with her. He needs to have some people like that.
But I have to tell you, "The Washington Post" is reporting tonight that there's a big debate within his camp about whether he should turn much more and harshly negative in Indiana which he himself has called it a tie-breaker state.
